The group of now-ex-Cardinals in the opening day bullpen included Ryan Franklin and Trever Miller, both 38, and Miguel Batista, 40, and Brian Tallet, 33.

As the incumbent closer, Franklin had the furthest to fall. He flamed out quickly, losing the ninth-inning job in April. By the end of June, he was released with an 8.46 ERA. Franklin did not re-sign elsewhere and announced his retirement after the season.

Batista often seemed to be playing with fire as he walked 19 in 29 1/3 innings before his release on June 22. He then signed on with the Mets and pitched for them both in the minors and majors before again becoming a free agent after the season.

Tallet was injured in mid-April and upon his return was undependable. He logged an 8.31 ERA in 18 games. Miller lost his ability to execute his primary assignment, consistently retiring first batters, as evidenced by 10 walks in 15 2/3 innings. Both lefties were sent to Toronto in trade in late July. Not surprisingly, each continued to struggle, and were quickly released by the Jays. Miller signed with Boston, but is now a free agent.

Among the in-season additions to the pen were four much younger pitchers who became solid contributors down the stretch for St. Louis: Eduardo Sanchez, 22, Lance Lynn, 24, Marc Rzepczynski, 25 and Fernando Salas, 26. Other than “Scrabble,” they all came up through the Cardinals farm system.

The smooth transition from ineffective veterans to young guns, occurring during a push toward the post-season, was a factor in the team’s ability to go on to take the World Championship.

In all fairness, the new formula was not all youth driven, as Octavio Dotel, 37, was a big addition for the second half. Dotel and Rzepczynski arrived in the same trade as Miller and Tallet departed. 41-year-old Arthur Rhodes signed on starting in August, but was less productive. Neither Dotel nor Rhodes will be back for 2012.

Looking ahead to next season, seven of the Cardinals relievers will be under the age of 30. The four younger men noted above will be joined in the competition by Kyle McClellan and Mitchell Boggs, both 27, and closer Jason Motte, 29. In pitching age, the former catcher Motte is the least experienced of the lot. All three are also homegrown Cardinals.

The club did make one move to add veteran presence to the pen when they signed left-hander J.C. Romero last week. The 35-year-old may be kept busy sharing his experiences with his new seven under-30 pen-mates.

Note: To view detailed stats of all the Cardinals’ 2011 relievers, click here to be taken to the article, “St. Louis Cardinals 2011 Reliever of the Year” at TheCardinalNation.com.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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New Dodgers designated pinch hitter Jim Thome has a long, storied and deserved reputation for being a Cardinal killer. The left-handed slugger with 564 career home runs has an even 100 at-bats against St. Louis pitching in his 19-year career.

Thome has collected 43 hits versus Cardinals hurlers, so you can do the quick math. Of those, 18 were home runs with a whopping 40 RBI to his credit. In addition, he drew 31 walks, making his career line against the Cardinals a super-human .430/.565/1.010.

It goes without saying that Thome’s 1.575 OPS put up against the helpless St. Louis pitchers is by far his best career performance against any of the 30 MLB clubs. Having played in both leagues, Thome has faced them all, with a career OPS of .961.

But the Cardinals have a pair of new left-handed relievers in 2009, the only lefties on the club’s roster. Each has done a good job for St. Louis during the regular season.

Veterans Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes have each spent considerable time in the American League, so they have seen Thome before. They should be able to slow him down, right?

Unfortunately, it works the other way too. If you have a weak stomach, stop reading now.

Following is a summary of how Thome has fared against the two.

Versus Miller: More feast than famine for Thome. Good news for the Cards: three strikeouts in six plate appearances. Bad news: a single, double and a walk for four RBI in the other three appearances.

Versus Reyes: Even worse. In 13 plate appearances, Thome reached base six times. Three walks, a single and two home runs, five RBI. Two strikeouts, though.

Combined: 5-for-15 with five strikeouts plus four walks. A double and two home runs, nine RBI. .333 average, .600 on-base percentage, .800 slugging percentage for a nice, neat, devastating 1.400 OPS.

(For those who will surely ask, lefty Royce Ring, bumped from the 40-man roster earlier this season, exiled to Triple-A Memphis all summer long and not called up in September, had his own roller coaster ride with Thome. In four career plate appearances, Ring walked him twice and fanned him the other two.)

Remember the above results are not included in Thome’s career 1.575 OPS against the Cardinals above. Thome has yet to bat against St. Louis this season and therefore against either of the lefties since they first donned the Birds on the Bat.

So in a perverse sort of way, the optimists could observe that the Reyes and Miller-generated 1.400 OPS is actually more effective than the other Cardinals pitchers have been against Thome over time.

For the rest of us out here in the real world, look out if the game is on the line and Thome comes to the plate against any of the Cardinals. Though the 39-year-old cannot play in the field, he will likely be a factor during at least one crucial moment in the NLDS.

Don’t be even a tiny bit more confident if the pitcher tasked with trying to get him out is one of the Cardinals lefties.

Miller’s new deal is for 2010 with a vesting option for the 2011 season. He will make $2 million in base salary next season with a club option for $2 million in 2011 with a $1 million buyout if Miller appears in 45 games in 2010.

A few hours later at Busch Stadium, Miller time was rapidly approaching.

The Cards had just broken a tie with the visiting Milwaukee Brewers in the seventh inning Tuesday night on Matt Holliday’s three-run home run. Not at his best on the evening, Cards starting pitcher Joel Pineiro was removed to start the eighth in favor of Blake Hawksworth. The rookie then promptly walked number three hitter Ryan Braun.

Manager Tony La Russa had seen enough and called for Miller from the bullpen. Miller’s job was to reprise his usual role – diffuse a dangerous situation by facing the opponent’s toughest left-handed batter with runners on base. Specifically, his mission on Tuesday was to retire dangerous cleanup hitter Prince Fielder, Major League Baseball’s RBI leader.

All Miller did was strike the Brewers’ slugger out. His day done, Miller then saw Kyle McClellan coax an inning- and threat-ending double-play ball from Casey McGehee. Once closer Ryan Franklin completed a shaky ninth, Miller collected his 12^th save of the season.

Miller wasn’t the most visible star of the game Tuesday. All he did was what he has done pretty much all season long – get his man. Like Fielder, over one out of every three outs Miller collects is via the strikeout.

Miller’s already strong stats improved on the evening as his ERA fell to 1.75, his WHIP dropped to a microscopic 0.89 and he added his 38^th strikeout in just 36 innings of work.

In other words, Miller has struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings this season. In the history of the franchise, that is the seventh-highest rate posted by any Cardinals pitcher with at least 35 innings of work in a season.

Further, Miller is one of only 20 Cardinals pitchers ever to strike out one batter or more per inning in a season (nine per nine innings).

Each of the 20 occurrences has been in the last 50 years, all but three in the last 20. Note that all are/were relievers, with one notable exception – Rick Ankiel in 2000. (As an aside, the mention of Ankiel the pitcher is a sad reminder of what could have been.)

That’s right. Even the franchise’s greatest starters known for strikeouts such as Bob Gibson, Dizzy Dean and Steve Carlton were never able to sustain this high of a strikeout rate over an entire season.

Kiko Calero registered the best single-season rate in club history with just under 12 strikeouts per nine innings back in 2003. He is also the only pitcher to make this list in two different years, in 2003 and 2004. He was traded to Oakland following the second of those two seasons and is now in the Florida Marlins’ bullpen.

Footnote: In his first two starts as a Cardinal, John Smoltz has amassed 15 strikeouts in 11 innings. If the future Hall of Famer could sustain that 12.27 per nine innings rate for at least 24 additional innings, he would supplant Calero at the very top of this list.

Strikeouts per nine innings, season, Cardinals, 1901-2009 (35 innings minimum)

Rank	Player	K/9	IP	Year	Age
1	Kiko Calero	11.97	38.1	2003	28
2	Rich Croushore	11.05	71.2	1999	28
3	Mark Littell	11.00	106.1	1978	25
4	Rick Ankiel	9.98	175	2000	20
5	Tony Fossas	9.82	36.2	1995	37
6	Al Reyes	9.62	62.2	2005	34
7	Trever Miller	9.50	36	2009	36
8	Jason Isringhausen	9.37	65.1	2002	29
9	Kiko Calero	9.33	45.1	2004	29
10	Ken Dayley	9.30	61	1987	28
11	Randy Flores	9.29	41.2	2005	29
T12	Tyler Johnson	9.17	36.1	2006	25
T12	Lee Smith	9.17	68.2	1990	32
14	Al Hrabosky	9.16	56	1973	23
15	Chris Perez	9.07	41.2	2008	22
T16	Ron Villone	9.00	50	2008	38
T16	Russ Springer	9.00	66	2007	38
T16	T.J. Mathews	9.00	46	1997	27
T16	Todd Worrell	9.00	64	1992	32
T16	Marshall Bridges	9.00	76	1959	28

Thanks to Tom Orf for the data.

The timing is certainly not random. As most Cards fans know, starter/ace Chris Carpenter had to leave Tuesday’s game against Arizona after three innings with a ribcage injury. That left 18 outs or six innings for the bullpen to secure, or as it turned out with the game going into the tenth inning, the revised goal became to get 21 outs.

Unfortunately, out number 21 was never made as the tenth batter facing Brad Thompson, Eric Byrnes, stroked the winning hit into the left-field corner to end a very disappointing 7-6 loss.

The most damaging blow prior was a three-run home run served up by Josh Kinney with two outs in the eighth. The right-hander walked the opposing catcher, Miguel Montero and hit Justin Upton with a full-count offering before pinch-hitter Conor Jackson slammed a long ball to left (pictured). That turned a one-run lead into a two-run deficit and became the first blown save of the year for Kinney and the third for the Cardinals against three saves.

As a group, the 2009 Cardinals bullpen was expected to be a younger, more improved relief corps compared to their inconsistent and disappointing 2008 predecessors. As the data below shows, through nine games, the anticipated improvement is not there.

In just about every measurement, the 2009 relievers have started more poorly than the 2008 group, whether you consider won-loss record, save conversion rate or ERA. In the latter case, the 2009 pen is three-quarters of a run per nine innings worse than last season. The only area of improvement shown here is strikeout-to-walk ratio.

I also listed the National League bullpen averages as a secondary point of comparison. Not surprisingly, the 2008 Cardinals pen was worse than the NL average in every one of these categories. Only a low walk rate keeps the same statement from being made about the current crew.

Though the 2009 totals are small, note that the members of the Cardinals pen have thrown more innings than the NL average this season. That is a contrast to their level from last year, a period during which some considered the relievers had become overworked.

2008 relievers	W	L	W %	Sv	BS	Sv %	ERA	IP	BB	K	K:BB
Cardinals	22	31	0.415	42	31	0.575	4.20	499	230	381	1.66
NL average	26	27	0.493	38	23	0.623	4.09	514	219	432	1.97
2009 relievers	W	L	W %	Sv	BS	Sv %	ERA	IP	BB	K	K:BB
Cardinals	0	2	0.000	3	3	0.500	5.06	26.2	8	19	2.38
NL average	1	1	0.481	2	1	0.667	4.45	24	12	20	1.63

Following are the current stats from the seven individuals that make up the 2009 Cardinals bullpen. Note at the lower right that the relievers’ ERA is over three runs per nine innings worse than the starters.

2009	W/L	Sv Opps	Sv %	Inh Rnrs Score	IRS %	1st Btr Ret	1BR %	ERA	WHIP	OBA	OBP
Franklin	0-0	1/1	100	1/0	0	2/2	100	0.00	0.38	0.111	0.111
Kinney	0-0	0/1	0	4/1	25	3/2	66	13.50	2.25	0.200	0.467
McClellan	0-0	1/1	100	3/0	0	3/3	100	2.25	1.00	0.188	0.235
Miller	0-0	0/1	0	3/2	66	3/2	66	0.00	1.00	0.231	0.231
Motte	0-1	0/1	0	0/0	NA	4/1	25	11.25	2.25	0.320	0.455
Reyes	0-0	1/1	100	2/1	50	4/3	75	0.00	0.27	0.083	0.083
Thompson	0-1	0/0	NA	0/0	NA	4/3	75	6.75	1.80	0.345	0.375
Relievers	0-2	3/6	50	13/4	31	23/16	70	5.06
Starters								1.96
Team								2.98

Won/loss: Thompson and Jason Motte have the only bullpen decisions – a pair of ugly bookends. Motte earned the defeat on opening day and Thompson took it on the chin in the most recent contest on Tuesday night.

Save opportunities: On Tuesday, Kinney joined Motte and Trever Miller in the negative category. The three conversions were by Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes and Kyle McClellan.

Inherited runners scoring: Miller has the poorest early record here, as two of the three runners on base when he entered the game came around to score. Reyes allowed his first inherited runner to cross the plate on Tuesday night. McClellan has been the best here so far.

First batter retired: Generally, this looks ok with one exception. Tuesday night marked the first time in his four outings this season that Motte kept his initial batter off the bases. His troubles have been of his own making. Each time, Motte has been allowed to come in with the bases empty.

ERA/WHIP: There is no in-between. Kinney, Motte and Thompson aren’t getting the job done in the early going. Way too many baserunners with too many of them crossing the plate. (As a reference point, a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 1.40 or slightly under is league average.)

Opponent batting average/on-base percentage: Kinney’s lack of control is killing him, Thompson’s problem has been hits while Motte is struggling in both areas.

What to do?

I seriously wondered if Chris Perez was only the eighth-best reliever on the Cardinals this spring and am continuing to ask myself the same question.

Sent to Memphis to open the season, Perez has pitched four innings over three games. He has a win and two saves on no hits and three walks. Perez has fanned four Triple-A batters.

If the Cardinals need to call up a pitcher from Memphis to backfill Carpenter, it may be someone who can start, such as P.J. Walters, but the shaky bullpen appears that it could use a shot of life, too.

Sure, the middle infield is muddled and there is a scrum (or perhaps there will be) over who takes over temporarily for Troy Glaus at third base. Colby Rasmus’ immediate major league future may depend as much on Skip Schumaker’s successful conversion to second base as it does him pulling out of a mini slump to start camp.

The rotation is set. The catching is set. The infield and outfield are getting lined up. Until Thursday, the bullpen seemed aligned, too. Yet the concern remained about the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the contenders for the second left-handed spot behind Trever Miller.

That concern was addressed with Thursday’s announcement of the signing of Dennys Reyes to a two-year contract. While that is yesterday’s news now, several of the aftershocks attracted my attention.

One is that Miller is going to be tried in the ninth inning, according to an idea of pitching coach Dave Duncan, as shared with the Post-Dispatch. It would not be to displace the winner of the competition between hard-throwing right-handers Jason Motte and Chris Perez, but instead to offer a different look from the other side.

The 35-year-old Miller is a veteran of over 500 MLB games and has accrued a total of ten saves, with three the most gained in any season, at least until now. Miller’s first shot in the ninth was during Friday’s tie game. He yielded the winning run on a pair of hits and a walk.

The presence of Reyes also raised another question as to the identities of the seven members of the bullpen or the 12^th pitcher as camp breaks.

Here is what Tony La Russa said to MLB.com on Friday. You may have to read it a second or third time, however…

”… we have that [last] spot. It could go to a third left-hander, or it could go to a right-hander. If somebody wants a gift of a spot on the roster, that’s not the kind of guy you want on the club. You have to earn it. It just goes from two spots open — one spot open and one maybe — to one maybe.”

While La Russa did not identify the six spots taken, let’s take a run through the candidates to see what the manager and pitching coach may be thinking.

First, we have the relievers whose spots seem very secure. They include:

1. Ryan Franklin

2. Miller (L)

3. Reyes (L)

Then we have two returnees whose jobs seem pretty safe:

4. Kyle McClellan

5. Josh Kinney

I believe that McClellan will be on the team, but there remains a small chance he could be needed to start. As of today, his official status is as a starter, though that is expected to change at some point when all five members of the rotation seem fully healthy and ready to begin the season. If Mitchell Boggs can continue to build upon his solid spring debut, he may also ease the McClellan shift back to relief.

Kinney has been struggling with his command and location, but that is likely an early spring issue that will be worked out. Though the righty missed most of the last two seasons following dual elbow surgeries, he returned for an impressive, though short, re-audition last September.

Next we have the closer. It seems things continue to line up such that there will be room for one of the two of Perez and Motte on the opening roster, but not both. Let’s assume that for now.

6. Motte/Perez

Are these the manager’s six filled positions?

In a traditional La Russa/Duncan pen, the final spot is a long reliever-spot starter. I don’t want to read anything into early spring performances, but I did note with interest Franklin’s three-inning outing the other day.

Having spent most of his career as a starter prior to arriving in St. Louis, the 36-year-old wanted to compete for a rotation spot when he was signed two years ago. Perhaps it is nothing, but coupling this with the idea of using Miller in the ninth inning might free up Franklin for a longer role in 2009.

Coming into camp, Franklin was most often mentioned as the fallback for a Perez-Motte dual failure. Franklin did not shine as the closer last season, however.

7. To be determined

I see at least three paths here, labeled Options A, B and C. They involve four pitchers in a fight for one job – Brad Thompson, Royce Ring, Charlie Manning and one of Perez and Motte.

Option A: The long man

That Franklin-Miller scenario would put incumbent long-reliever/spot starter Brad Thompson on the hot seat and potentially open up Option B or C below.

Thompson seems to be a guy never able to lock down a role, yet offers a manager a lot of flexibility. For whatever reason, when Thompson starts, the club wins. Since coming up in 2005, the right-hander has started 24 games, during which the Cardinals went 17-7.

Option B: The third lefty

I have noted in the past that the Cardinals have not broken camp with three left-handers in the pen since the short-lived and ill-fated Bill Pulsipher experiment in 2005. That lasted five games for Pulse. The previous case was 2001, a time when another non-roster invitee, Jeff Tabaka, made the team. That lefty remained longer, but it wasn’t an entirely satisfactory result.

The third season in La Russa’s 13 in St. Louis in which the team came north with three left-handed relievers was 1999. That year, in an oddity, the club began the season with three lefties starting (Kent Mercker, Donovan Osborne and Darren Oliver) and three more in the pen (Mike Mohler, Lance Painter and Scott Radinsky).

Back to the here and now, so far in camp, neither lefties Charlie Manning nor Royce Ring have pitched themselves off the team. Both are on the 40-man roster and either could nail down that final spot, a point to which La Russa alluded in his quote above. Maybe the competition is real and maybe it is designed to head off any potential post-Reyes letdown by the pair.

Option C: The second closer

It would be unfair to Motte and Perez to not acknowledge that if each impresses all month long, the club could decide to keep them both.

Speaking of options, let’s discuss options as they relate to the club’s ability to ship these players to the minors. All of the players in question except Ring have an option remaining, which include Motte, Perez, Manning, and even Thompson, though the latter would have to pass through revocable waivers first. This is likely a formality that should not inhibit the decision-making process. Even McClellan and Kinney have options in the unlikely event it gets to that.

All in all, this gives La Russa and Duncan maximum flexibility to shape their pen and decide who to name as that seventh man.

Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch reports an increasing level of concern from the coaches over the low-budget, low-results candidates in camp, with Tony La Russa and his staff expected to give general manager John Mozeliak an earful when the group meets on Thursday morning.

The current group of contenders in camp consists of Charlie Manning, claimed off waivers from Washington last November, Royce Ring (pictured), a castoff from the Atlanta Braves, Ian Ostlund, a minor league free agent from the Detroit Tigers system and Katsuhiko Maekawa, who had a tryout with the Nats two years ago. The latter two have yet to make their major league debuts and based on very early action, probably aren’t going to do so anytime soon.

Later on Wednesday morning, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed from “major league sources” that the Cardinals are indeed back in the market for left-handed relief. Rosenthal did not identify Mozeliak’s primary target, but highlighted three options in his article – Dennys Reyes, Joe Beimel and Will Ohman. For more on each, check out Dustin Mattison’s Scout.com article from October.

Depending on the rumor source, any of the three could be had for an amount estimated between $1 million and $2 million for the 2009 season. If that is the case, here’s hoping Mozeliak does not pass go. After all, given the club was willing to spend in the vicinity of $9 million per season for then-free agent Brian Fuentes earlier in the winter, this looks like pocket change.

With the elongated spring training, any new lefty should have plenty of time to get ready for the 2009 regular season, but there is competition. Rosenthal identifies at least five clubs other than the Cardinals that are on a similar search – the A’s, Phillies, Pirates, Marlins and Padres.

In this game of musical chairs, with six contestants and only three places to land, Mo needs to ensure he is one of the winners this time.

The other day, I gave a nod to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle as the result of an article he wrote for the Sporting News in which he advised not to count out the 2009 Cardinals. I did that, overlooking his fearless prediction that “The Cardinals might win 90 games or lose 90.” Way to stick your neck out, Richard.

I spoke too soon as Justice is apparently writing a series of similar articles, just substituting the team name. His latest: “Don’t count Astros out in spring training”. This despite the fact he clearly stated that Houston “gotten worse” this season in the earlier article.

Let’s see. Worse than third place means what? Contention? Guess he has to appease the hometown readers.

It is certainly the right time of year to accurately suggest that no team is out of it. Keeps all the bases well-covered that way, I imagine. I am guessing Justice is having a big stack of waffles for breakfast this Sunday morning.

Caribbean Series ends

Congratulations to the Aragua Tigres of Venezuela for winning the 2009 Caribbean Series with a 5-1 record. The Mexican club, the Mazatlan Venados, finished in second at 3-3.

The Tigres actually clinched with a victory over Mexico on Friday, making Saturday’s game meaningless. Venezuela’s Brad Knox, a free agent formerly from the Oakland system, got the Saturday nod. Knox, a starter I mentioned over on Scout.com on Friday (subscription required), was hammered for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He had tossed a no-hitter for 6 1/3 innings his first time out.

The main pitcher I profiled there, Edgar Gonzalez, previously a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, is rumored to be close to signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Too bad if that happens, as he would have been an intriguing add for the Cardinals.

Cards Mexican Pacific League recap

Also make sure you hop on over to Cardinals Best News Links to check out Josh Jones’ summaries of winter league action by Cardinals players past and present. Just posted was a recap of the Mexican Pacific League season.

Wolf signs with Dodgers

Arguably the top left-hander on the market, Randy Wolf, signed a one-year, $5 million deal with Joe Torre’s Los Angeles Dodgers. That was very bad news for still-free agent Braden Looper, widely considered to have been the Dodgers’ second choice.

Looper seems destined to be a second choice kind of guy. Most Cardinals observers would admit that the difference between Looper, who was sent packing, and Kyle Lohse, who was offered four years and $41 million to stay, was not that huge.

Now, it is Looper who will likely have to accept a circa 2008 Lohse-ian deal someplace. (Lohse did not have a home this time last year, signing a cut-rate one-year contract with a base of $4.25 million with the Cardinals in mid-March.)

Not that the Cardinals were serious suitors, but one part of me is relieved that Wolf did not sign with St. Louis. I don’t think I could survive an entire season listening to Hungo pronounce the pitcher’s name as “woof”.

Torre and A-Fraud

Speaking of Torre, the timing of the release of his new book, “The Yankee Years”, last Tuesday was impeccable. All week, the furor was at a fever pitch over Torre supposedly savaging his old club, while the grandfatherly skipper hit the talk show circuit carefully explaining his intent. A great way to sell books. One controversial reference was to “A-Fraud”, though not necessarily attributed as a direct Torre quote.

Seems the A-Rod steroid allegations have knocked any lingering rage at Torre off the back page of the New York tabloids while reinforcing the unfortunate nickname of the embattled third baseman.

MLB Network – the other side

One of the places where Torre was most visible was the fledgling MLB Network. His co-author of the book, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, already works there. A great way to sell books. Hmmm.

Yet, the most visible face there has instantly become Bob Costas, who left behind his cable deal with HBO to move over to the MLB Network, also just last week. His first interviews were with Torre and Verducci.

Costas, who has become sports’ answer to Dick Clark, America’s oldest teenager, does have a reputation that enables him to ask at least marginally tough questions, something that is badly needed at MLB Network.

While I like their programming, their four-person roundtables are terribly boring, with four yes-people all agreeing on how good such-and-such signing was. In all fairness, they can hardly be critical of teams and of MLB while ripping their bosses in the process. I guess it was unrealistic to hope the Network would be any more hard-hitting in their coverage than MLB.com, the flagship mouthpiece for the empire.

It must be frustrating for the writers and broadcasters, who are likely intelligent, opinionated people, to be unable to fully speak their minds. Heck, when MLB employees blog, they do it via a company-run blog site. How independent can that be? Big brother is always watching.

It is clearly high-stakes big business for MLB. I wonder if there will be editorial pressure to downplay the new A-Rod steroids scandal on MLB Network. I surely hope not, but have to wonder. Biting the hand that feeds you rarely turns out well.

Cookie WHIPped

Speaking of MLB Network, I spent much of my evenings last week watching the Caribbean Series there. One of the rotating color men used daily was former MLB player and manager Cookie Rojas.

He is clearly old school. When an ESPN graphic popped up the Venezuelan club’s ERA and WHIP, Cookie explained WHIP as hitting with runners in scoring position. Ouch!

Old school, new school contention remains

Since it is time for the fresh start of the new season, a logical column for the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss to write is the annual “Tony La Russa is re-energized” tome.

Buried in it was La Russa’s not-so-subtle reminder that he is still not totally in synch with the new wave Cardinals organization.

“I believe analysis from a computer is useful but should be secondary to what you observe. That may not be the opinion of the people in charge,” La Russa told Strauss.

It’s not a news flash, as La Russa has made similar comments in the past, but it is discouraging to see the organizational tension remains at a level such that the manager feels the ongoing need to discuss it publicly.

Congrats to Worrell

Former Cardinals reliever Todd Worrell (pictured) was among the 14 inductees into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame on Saturday night in Springfield.

The now-49-year-old was a standout as a closer and set-up man for the Cardinals from 1985 through 1992 and has given back as a former player. An excellent choice.

DiFelice retires

Former Cardinals catcher Mike DiFelice (1996-97, 2002) has retired as an active player to manage the Mets’ rookie team in Kingsport, TN. The K-Mets are an Appalachian League adversary of the Johnson City Cardinals.

The 39-year-old DiFelice spent most of 2008 in Triple-A but did get a final cup of coffee (with dessert?) with the AL champion Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He did not appear in the post-season.

Lefty swapping

The same article linked to above notes the Rays are signing Brian Shouse, apparently to replace now-Cardinal Trever Miller for the left side of their pen. It will be interesting to see which club turns out to have made the best decision. To say I am nervous about the Cardinals’ 2009 relief lefties is an understatement.

First arbitration case decided

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Shawn Hill won his salary arbitration case and will receive $775,000, instead of the $500,000 the team was offering. For the Cardinals, Rick Ankiel is up first, this coming Thursday, with Ryan Ludwick scheduled the Tuesday following, on the 17^th.

Gorgen shoulder surgery good news

On Saturday, I had a long phone conversation with right-handed pitching prospect Scott Gorgen. He has a most interesting story about the evolution of his shoulder discomfort through surgery last week. The news is good – out eight weeks instead of the entire season. It is subscriber-only content, but worth the listen if you are a member.

Remember that you’ll continue to see several feature articles each week from me at Scout.com, so make sure you check there regularly, too.

Cubs lead Cards in Koreans, 4-1

Recently, MLB.com ran a feature about the Chicago Cubs’ increase in worldwide scouting, noting the club has invited three young Korean prospects to minor league camp along with another player from that country that was also under contract last season.

The Cardinals signed a Korean of their own last week, Hyang-Nam Choi, assigned to Memphis and also heading to minor league spring training. The 37-year-old cannot be considered a youth any more, however.

Last spring, the Cards had another Korean pitcher in minor league camp, Jai Chul Chung. The then-25 year old stayed around into extended spring training, but did not make a team.

Instead, I hereby re-apply the moniker to the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals bullpen, headlined by veteran Ryan Franklin, aka Frankie. The nine-year veteran is the leader of the band with over 1000 career innings in the majors.

The group behind Franklin when the club breaks camp from Jupiter, Florida at the end of March could include six far less-experienced relievers. While veteran left-hander Trever Miller and righty Brad Thompson have accrued over 700 big-league innings of work between them, the other four are greener than the infield grass that surrounds Busch Stadium’s mound.

While not true teenagers anymore, the quartet is certainly made up of baseball teenagers, with a total of just under 130 career MLB innings among them. They are lefty Charlie Manning and right-handers Josh Kinney, Jason Motte and Chris Perez. The fresh-faced Thompson could also fit right in with the Cards’ budding kiddie corps.

2009	Career IP	subtotal
Ryan Franklin	1047.7
Trever Miller	422.3
Brad Thompson	305.7
subtotal		1775.7
Charlie Manning	42
Chris Perez	41.7
Josh Kinney	32
Jason Motte	11
subtotal		126.7
total		1902.3

Noticeably absent from this initial group is Kyle McClellan. The club’s Rookie of the Year last season when working out of the bullpen is fully preparing for spring as a starter. Yet the right-hander has just 75 2/3 career MLB innings himself. So the 2009 picture wouldn’t change if he was inserted instead of one of the others.

Lefty Royce Ring could also be considered instead of Manning. He has managed to stay up only long enough to have pitched 65 2/3 big-league innings over his four-year career. That is not much difference from Manning’s 42.

Since 1900 total pen innings are tough to put into perspective standing alone, I looked the Cardinals’ top seven relievers last season in terms of innings pitched and their total MLB experience coming into 2008.

2008	Then-career IP
Ron Villone	1069.3
Ryan Franklin	968.7
Jason Isringhausen	864.7
Russ Springer	747.3
Brad Thompson	241
Randy Flores	182.3
Kyle McClellan	0
	4073.3

As you can see, last year’s group in aggregate came into the season with over double the number of MLB mound innings than the projected 2009 gang. Of the four pitchers with over 700 career innings, three are gone for this coming season.

Not only are the experience levels dramatically different from season to season, Franklin and Thompson are the only carryovers from the top seven 2008 pen workload leaders.

To make sure that 2008-2009 wasn’t a fluke, I extended my analysis back each season in the La Russa years, again looking at the aggregate experience coming into that year by the seven that would become the busiest relievers.

“Leaders of the band” denote the team’s most experienced reliever while “Roadie” designate the one of the seven with the fewest career innings pitched coming into that season.

Bullpen	Career IP	YTY	Leader of the band	IP	Roadie	IP
2009	1902.3	-2171	Ryan Franklin	1047.7	Jason Motte	11
2008	4073.3	1427	Ron Villone	1069.3	Kyle McClellan	0
2007	2646.3	1139.3	Ryan Franklin	888.7	Kelvin Jimenez	0
2006	1507	-2127.7	Jason Isringhausen	741	Adam Wainwright	2
2005	3634.7	9.7	Cal Eldred	1331	Brad Thompson	0
2004	3625	-855	Cal Eldred	1264	Kiko Calero	38.3
2003	4480	2209.3	Jeff Fassero	1738	Kiko Calero	0
2002	2270.7	527	Mike Timlin	698.7	Mike Crudale	0
2001	1743.7	-732.7	Mike Timlin	626	Mike Matthews	9.3
2000	2476.3	678	Heathcliff Slocumb	562.3	Gene Stechschulte	0
1999	1798.3	-108	Heathcliff Slocumb	500.3	Rich Croushore	54.3
1998	1906.3	-2044	Jeff Brantley	723.7	Rich Croushore	0
1997	3950.3	-2475.3	Dennis Eckersley	3193	Rigo Beltran	0
					Brady Raggio	0
1996	6425.7		Dennis Eckersley	3133	Cory Bailey	23.7

There’s a lot to consume here, but what jumps out at me first is the experience drain of 2171 innings from last year to this. That represents the pen’s biggest year-to-year decrease since 1997, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan’s second season in St. Louis.

Surprisingly, “Frankie and the Teenagers”, aka the projected 2009 pen, isn’t the least experienced combo in recent Cardinals seasons, though.

That mark belongs to the group of 2006 relievers, ironically during what became the World Championship regular season. That year, beyond Jason Isringhausen and Braden Looper, the other five relievers each had fewer than 100 career innings on the big mound. The man who would become the post-season star, interim closer Adam Wainwright, had collected just six major league outs coming into the year.

That reminds us there is much more to the end game than just innings pitched.

It remains to be seen whether this summer Cardinals fans will be crying, “Why Do Fools Fall in Love?” about this 2009 version of “Frankie and the Teenagers” or whether they’ll be filling the aisles while touting them for a different Hall of Fame.

(As always, special thanks to Lee Sinins’ “Complete Baseball Encyclopedia”, a fast and efficient way to look at players’ partial careers and to answer a million other “what if?” questions, too!)

“Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?”

That is the very question Derrick Goold set out to answer at his fine “Bird Land” blog earlier this week. As always, he assumed a calm, fact-based tone to try to either support or dispel the feelings of some about one of many volatile issues this winter – that the St. Louis Cardinals’ left-handed relief corps for 2009 is a downgrade from the crew rostered the previous season.

Goold went beyond the obvious factors of salaries, health concerns and the basic stats to consider the primary role for the three newcomers, Trever Miller, Charlie Manning and Royce Ring – how they have fared against left-handed hitters previously. The term used in support is “LOOGY”, or Lefty One-Out GuY.

After looking at measures like batting average, slugging, walk and strikeout rates, as well as mix of pitch types thrown, Derrick’s conclusion is that this 2009 crop could be just fine against lefty hitters. A few supporting quotes:

“Miller is clearly the lefty specialist they desired. With the others, the Cardinals cannot be sure of their roles or their expected contributions, as (pitching coach Dave) Duncan said, ‘yet.’”

“Both Manning and Ring have the look of a lefty who could perform in a more specified role.”

This is a well-presented case that might go a long way in soothing the concerns, especially of those who look first at salaries to judge a player’s worth. In fact, it was Derrick’s third article reviewing different aspects of Miller’s effectiveness against left-handed hitters.

At first blush, I accepted the conclusion and moved on to other matters. Yet the more I thought about it, the less comfortable I was that the analysis was complete enough for me to hang my hat on.

Is there more to consider?

Sure, getting out left-handed hitters is the primary textbook-defined role of a left-handed reliever. I readily accept that.

• Yet especially on a Tony La Russa-managed club, is there really such a thing as a LOOGY?
• Is potentially choosing from among three options for a LOOGY the best question to ask?

(By the way, the population of competitors is four if you include minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, who has yet to appear in the majors, but did score an invite to major league spring training. With no MLB results, Ostlund is excluded from the work that follows.)

We all know that in some cases, opposing managers will send up pinch hitters to disrupt the lefty-lefty match-ups, yet one could assume the left-handed reliever is being asked to come into the game and get out an important opposing batter, one that would not be taken out of the game.

Yet how often does a La Russa-Dave Duncan left-hander come in to pitch to just one left-handed hitter and then exit the game?

Certainly some outs are more crucial than others, but if the pitcher remains on the mound for more than one enemy batter, odds are high that next hitter is going to be a right-hander. Further, that next man up could easily be in just as crucial of a game situation as the previous left-handed batter.

In other words, my hypothesis is that the Cardinals need lefties that can get out right-handed hitters almost as badly as they need ones that can retire left-handed hitters.

Obviously, if that is the case, considering stats against lefties only is not going to provide the full picture.

How often did Ron Villone and Randy Flores face lefties?

I am going to use 2008 results to help me demonstrate this. I submit that the La Russa-Duncan usage patterns for left-handed relievers are pretty set at this stage of their coaching careers. Therefore the ability to assume 2009 deployment from 2008 usage seems reasonable, especially when considering the long course of 162 games.

We’ll start with the usage of the two from 2008, Ron Villone and Randy Flores.

2008 Cards	Game appearances	% Game App	Batters plate appearances	PA/App	% PA
Ron Villone	74		229	3.1
vs. LHH	68	92%	108	1.5	47%
vs. RHH	43	58%	121	1.6	53%
Randy Flores	43		131	3.0
vs. LHH	37	86%	64	1.5	49%
vs. RHH	32	74%	67	1.6	51%
Total	117		360	3.1
vs. LHH	105	90%	172	1.5	48%
vs. RHH	75	64%	188	1.6	52%

First, note that when the two appeared in games, they each faced at least one left-handed hitter (LHH) 90% of the time. Check.

While Flores went up against right-handed hitters (RHH) more often than Villone, it is worth noting that in almost 2/3 of their collective appearances, the two left-handed relievers also faced at least one right-handed hitter.

So much for LOOGY-ness.

Going on to the right of the table, we see that they both averaged three batters faced per appearance in 2008. In terms of pure numbers of batters faced, the pair of lefties actually pitched to MORE right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters last season.

LOOGY what?

Put aside pure LOOGYness then; how did they do in facing just one batter?

Now, we’ll pull out the game logs of the two from last season. In this analysis, we are not looking at the handedness of the batter. Instead, the view is of how the LH relievers were used and how they fared in single-batter outings.

In other words, when Villone or Flores came in to face just one batter, whether righty or lefty, did they get their man?

2008 Cards	Game appearances	One-batter appearances	% 1ba	One out gotten	% 1out
Ron Villone	74	32	43%	17	53%
Randy Flores	43	14	33%	8	57%
Total	117	46	39%	25	54%

To clarify, note that I did not show how each pitcher fared against their first batter faced in EVERY appearance, regardless of duration. Instead, I looked at their results in appearances when only one batter was faced. Of course, none of this assesses the cruciality of the situation.

Therefore, this is clearly just a subset of what the full first-batter results were, but still are enough to further deflate the LOOGY myth, I believe.

Last season between the two, they faced just one batter slightly under 40% of the time. In other words, Villone and Flores were NOT used as a “one-out guy” over 60% of the time.

In terms of results in their one-batter outings, collectively the two were able to secure the out only 54% of the time.

In Flores’ case, I noted an interesting pattern. From the start of the season through June 1, he was a perfect 6-for-6 in getting that one out. The rest of the way, he went an awful 2-for-8.

Now, we’re getting closer to the essence of the real issue, I think.

How do the new guys stack up?

Let’s shift gears to the new lefties and see how they compare, using their 2008 regular season results.

2008	Game appearances	One-batter appearances	% 1ba	One out gotten	% 1out
Trever Miller	68	20	29%	15	75%
Charlie Manning	57	16	28%	12	75%
Royce Ring	42	19	45%	15	79%
Total	167	55	33%	42	76%

The first thing to note is that these three were used less frequently to face one batter than did the Cardinals pair from 2008, 33% vs. 39%. So this analysis is over an even a smaller subset of their total body of work than it was for Flores and Villone.

It obviously says nothing about the results when any of these pitchers are left in to face more than one hitter in a given game, which is exactly what happens the vast majority of the time (2/3). So it should not be considered an indicator of total results in any way.

Yet, in the one-third of the time they were used against one batter in 2008, the three new Cardinals collectively came through over 75% of the time. Needless to say, that is considerably better than the 54% mark from the Cardinals’ departed pair from last season.

It might offer a ray of hope if I could get past the fact that these pitchers are likely going to see far fewer one-batter appearances with St. Louis than they did in their previous pitching locales. I have no way of projecting if those rates would continue on a different team at a higher frequency of deployment in the situation.

How about first batters retired of all types and inherited runners?

Straying even further away from the LOOGY definition, we will conclude with first batter-retired efficiency in all outings of all durations as well as inherited runners that scored.

I believe these two measures are better gauges than most everything else presented here previously.

2008 Cards	Appearances	1st batter retired	% efficient	Inh runners	IR scored	% scored
Ron Villone	74	48	65%	43	10	23%
Randy Flores	43	31	72%	26	10	38%
Total	117	79	68%	69	20	29%
2008	Appearances	1st batter retired	% efficient	Inh runners	IR scored	% scored
Trever Miller	68	49	72%	37	6	16%
Charlie Manning	57	39	68%	35	8	23%
Royce Ring	42	27	64%	34	6	18%
Total	167	115	69%	106	20	19%

Together, the two 2008 Cardinals retired their initial batter about 2/3 of the time, with Flores coming in 7% better than Villone. The three newbies in total are basically the same as the 2008 bunch, with Miller equivalent to Flores and Ring lining up with Villone at the low end. Among this group, Manning is average.

Where the new Cardinals really shine is in the important area of inherited runners scoring. Miller leads the way at a stingy 16%, with Ring right behind. The worst of the three, Manning, was the same as Villone at 23%. As Cardinals fans likely remember, Flores was simply awful in 2008, as almost 40% of the runners that were on base when he came in eventually crossed the plate.

Had Villone and Flores managed to deliver a 19% rate in these situations last season, seven fewer runs would have been charged to them and to the Cardinals.

Finally, something I can get a little more excited about!

My conclusions:

• Most of the time, St. Louis Cardinals’ left-handed relievers are not deployed against just one batter, whether lefty or righty, making LOOGY an exception.
  • Last season, the length of Cards lefties appearances were greater than one batter 60% of the time, averaging slightly over three batters each.
  • These lefty relievers actually faced more right-handed hitters over the course of the 2008 season.
  • Therefore, using results against left-handed hitters only as a predictive measure of success would seem incomplete, at best.
• Using an very narrow approach of looking at only one-batter outings to remain true to the spirit of LOOGY, we found that the three 2009 Cardinals newcomers were substantially more efficient in that specific role in 2008 than were the two departed left-handers.
• While the three new left-handers allowed first hitters-faced, whether lefty or righty, to reach base last season at basically the same rate as Villone and Flores, the new Cards were markedly better at stranding inherited runners.

To get back to the initial question, “Did the Cardinals improve their lefty relief?” To date, my reply is “perhaps”, though not necessarily for the exact same reasons as Goold.