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Many times, the magnitude of a big story is evident from the moment it occurs. That was not the case on May 22, however, despite two members of the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation, Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, having gone down with injuries on consecutive days.

At the time, the severity and staying power of the injuries were not fully understood, but as they lingered on, the impact on the club was felt both directly and indirectly for the remainder of the year.

Lohse’s recurring forearm problem required surgery that would sideline him until mid-August, while Penny’s shoulder ailment was originally thought to be so minor that he would miss just three weeks. In reality, Penny did not pitch again.

The Cardinals tried a series of fill-in starters but were not satisfied with their results. They included Blake Hawksworth (eight starts, 5.83 ERA) and Adam Ottavino (three starts, 7.53 ERA). P.J. Walters posted a 3.96 ERA in three 2010 starts, but had suffered his worst outing on June 1 while giving up seven runs in four innings to the Reds. He did not start again for St. Louis until the final week of the season.

By mid-June, the club had turned to former Cardinal Jeff Suppan, released by Milwaukee in his final year of a four-year, $42 million contract. The 35-year-old did a credible job for St. Louis overall, posting a 3.84 ERA in 15 games, 13 starts. He allowed two runs or less in nine starts but still managed just a 3-6 record.

Suppan was carefully deployed by the Cardinals, missing the entire month of August due to what was called a strained right groin. He was only reactivated when rosters expanded in September and pitched his best baseball during the final month as the season slipped away.

As the July trade deadline approached, the organization realized that Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia were not enough starting pitching to carry them down the stretch. Penny’s return seemed increasingly unlikely, Lohse was still out and the youngsters had not impressed.

On July 31, general manager John Mozeliak made a surprise trade – an offense-for-pitching swap that would define the 2010 season. Popular right fielder Ryan Ludwick was dealt to San Diego in a three-team deal that netted the Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook. Clearly the deal would not have been necessary had Penny and Lohse been at full strength.

Westbrook did his part with St. Louis but the already-struggling offense did not rebound from the loss of Ludwick. A few days after the trade, third baseman David Freese was proclaimed out for the remainder of the season and replacements like Felipe Lopez and Pedro Feliz came nowhere near picking up the necessary slack.

The Cardinals 2010 season ended in disappointment. One can argue that the May Penny and Lohse injuries were the beginning of the end.

More on their seasons follow.

Penny’s spent

Like the 2010 Cardinals, Penny was hot to begin the season, with three wins and a 0.94 ERA through his first four starts. It all unraveled on May 21. After hitting a grand slam off the man he replaced in the Cardinals rotation, the Angels’ Joel Pineiro, Penny exited the game after three innings.

The injury was diagnosed as a strained latissimus dorsi muscle on his right side. Penny was placed on the disabled list the next day with an expectation he might be able to return in as soon as three weeks.

As the days turned to weeks and months, the organization showed increasing frustration with the lack of progress in Penny’s condition. On July 6, the 32-year-old was scheduled to face live hitters for the first time, but instead had to be shut down after experiencing discomfort. Had the workout been successful, Penny would have made a rehab start in the minor leagues in preparation to return after the All-Star break. Manager Tony La Russa called the setback “a big negative”.

That was as close as Penny came to pitching again. He did not return to game action for the remainder of the season, missing over four months and 116 games in total. Having joined St. Louis on a one-year contract, Penny is not expected to return to the club in 2011.

Lohse’s luck

Lohse battled through a second consecutive season of injury in 2010 after signing a four-year, $41 million deal following the 2008 season that includes full no-trade protection. The then-31-year-old did not start the season well, becoming the final member of the Cardinals season-opening starting rotation to record a win upon picking up his first 2010 victory on May 17.

His next start on May 22 of just 3 1/3 innings would be his last before being placed on the disabled list. On May 28, Lohse underwent fascial release surgery to relieve nerve compression in his right forearm.

Lohse’s recovery timetable was at least as mysterious as Penny’s due to no past precedence. It was the first surgery of its kind ever performed on a professional baseball player.

The right-hander would spend 84 days on the DL and even after resuming pitching, required an extended rehab. Lohse made four minor league starts, three with Triple-A Memphis and one with Double-A Springfield, pitching 19 innings of 4.74 ERA ball, culminating in his August 15 return to St. Louis.

The rest of the way, Lohse went 3-4 with a pair of no-decisions. His ERA rose from 5.89 at the time when he went onto the DL to its season-ending 6.55.

Lohse completed the season on a positive – his only scoreless outing of the year. In his 18^th and final start on October 2, he went seven shutout innings against Colorado. Lohse allowed just three hits, issued four walks and fanned five.

It remains to be seen which Lohse takes the mound in 2011.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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As the hot stove league heats up, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune noted the following about the St. Louis Cardinals in a “Baseball Whispers” article on Sunday.

“Miguel Tejada is on their radar as they look to improve at two of three spots among second, short and third.”

This name has been floated in conjunction with the Cardinals a number of times over the years, including at the July trade deadline. Buoyed by the expected return of David Freese, the Cardinals apparently did not make Baltimore an offer for Tejada. The 36-year-old was dealt to the San Diego Padres instead in return for a prospect.

Now, with a chance to upgrade over inadequate fill-in Pedro Feliz, the Cardinals may be looking at Tejada again. Even before Rogers’ comment, the name has come up on the personal wish list of Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss in recent weeks.

Tejada does not come without warts, including past issues with age falsification and PED allegations. The biggest challenge may be the decline in stats as his age advances. His .692 OPS in 2010 was his worst as an MLB full-time starter, a stretch that began in 1999.

As his defensive range has declined, Tejada spent more time at third base than his natural shortstop position this past season. The Cardinals are clearly looking for short-term third base insurance for oft-injured Freese while prospects such as Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter work their way toward St. Louis. At short, Tejada could be an offensive pairing with defensive stalwart Brendan Ryan.

Though the right-handed hitting Tejada has never appeared at second base as a major leaguer, I can’t help but wonder if he could become proficient at that position as well. It is a late-career move already made by former Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein, Tejada’s teammate in San Diego. This would give the 2011 Cardinals even more flexibility.

Even if all three incumbent infielders were to recover to have standout seasons in 2011, there should be enough at-bats to satisfy Tejada backing up all of them.

The more I think about it, from a fit perspective, I can see why the addition of Tejada would suit the Cardinals well.

Before we march off fat, dumb and happy into the sunset, here is the rub, though, and it is a major one.

Earlier, those in the game of trying to reverse-engineer the Elias Rankings projected Tejada as a Type B free agent. If so, a signing club would not forfeit a draft pick.

That did not turn out to be the case, however. In the real Elias Rankings released last week, Tejada has been classified as a Type A free agent, his ranking perhaps buoyed by having played better with San Diego than with the Orioles. In fact, because of his fit with his new club, some reports have the Padres interested in retaining Tejada for 2011.

If the Cardinals were to move quickly to try to sign Tejada before San Diego has to make the decision whether or not to offer him arbitration, the Cards would automatically forfeit their first-round draft pick next June, tentatively #22 overall.

This prohibitive price from the Cardinals’ perspective would be the same if the Padres eventually do offer arbitration to Tejada and he declines. If the Padres offer arbitration and Tejada accepts, he is off the market. The offer decision date for clubs is November 23.

The Cardinals may have to wait until at least November 30, the date by which players must accept or decline offers of arbitration, to make a formal move on Tejada, while hoping the Padres pass on the opportunity to grab a pair of extra early picks by not offering him.

Further, the Cardinals have no Type A free agents of their own that might be used to replace their first-round pick that would be lost in signing Tejada. With an already-thin group of projected high ceiling prospects, the Cardinals would be especially ill-advised to give up their top draft pick to sign an aging infielder.

In other words, while there may be interest in Tejada from St. Louis, it would be a major surprise to see any action in that area until at least late next month and the chance of it not proceeding at all has increased substantially in recent days.

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By Ian Walton

In his first start for the Cardinals since 2006 and following his release by the Milwaukee Brewers, Jeff Suppan allowed only one run in four innings pitched on Tuesday evening against the Seattle Mariners in what must be considered a successful outing during a 4-2 Cardinals victory.

After loading the bases in the first inning with two outs, Suppan coaxed a fielder’s choice groundout by Josh Wilson.  A double by Rob Johnson in the second inning was promptly followed by four straight strikeouts. A home run by Milton Bradley in the fourth was the only other hit he surrendered before being pulled from the game following a double of his own and a run scored in the bottom of the fourth.

Having spent the better part of the season in Milwaukee’s bullpen, Suppan was understandably stopped at 73 pitches.  Forty-six of those pitches were thrown for strikes and he ended up with four strikeouts against two walks and four hits.

As can be seen above, Suppan had good command of his fastball (FF) against right-handed batters, hugging close to the lower and outside edges of the strike zone in many cases.  His curveballs (CU) all missed low.  One can see a few changeups (CH), cutters (FC), and a slider (SL) thrown in, according to PitchFX.

Against left-handed batters, Suppan was less selective with his fastball, leaving many more in the center of the plate.  In aggregate, Suppan threw 30 of his 41 fastballs for strikes on the night.  His changeup predictably worked the outer half of the plate while a few of his curveballs managed to land for strikes this time.  In total, only five of his 14 curveballs thrown were registered as strikes however (with one a missed swing).

As per normal, Suppan hid his pitch selection well upon release as can be seen above.  His curveballs, fastballs, and changeups all left from the same location, which was an important deception along with his ability to change speeds.  Despite a fastball that topped out at 89 MPH, he averaged a seven MPH difference between his fastball and changeup and a 14 MPH difference between his fastball and curve.

Suppan seemed to fall right back into Dave Duncan’s standard game plan, inducing plenty of ground balls by pitching to contact.  He tallied six groundouts on the night as opposed to only two fly outs.  Only five of his 46 strikes were swung upon and missed.

In conclusion, while not spectacular in his short outing on Tuesday night, Jeff Suppan likely exceeded most expectations and represented a notable upgrade over recently demoted starters Adam Ottavino and P.J. Walters.  To review:

Positives

• Fastball thrown for strikes, with good command shown against RHB

• Ten of 12 outs recorded by strikeout or groundout

• Release points and pitch speeds led to reasonable deception

Negatives

• Too many pitches to LHB thrown in the center of the plate

• Ineffective curveball often landed low and didn’t fool anyone

Brooks Baseball generated the graphs used in this article.

To select the award’s namesake, I first had to unearth the worst yearly performance with the bat by a pitcher in team history, post-1900. Of the hundreds of Cardinals hurlers with at least 30 plate appearances in a season, only two posted a .000 OPS.

They are Vicente Palacios in 1994 and John Fulgham in 1980.

To break the apparent tie, I dove into the specifics.

In his season of futility, Fulgham, in his second of two career MLB seasons, had exactly 30 plate appearances. He had three sacrifices, therefore had only 27 official at-bats. He fanned 17 times, but managed to score once.

Palacios had 36 plate appearances in 1994 and also had three sacrifices. He struck out 15 times, but also ground into a double play. Palacios did not cross home plate.

Therefore, Palacios broke the close tie as having the worst hitting season by a Cardinals pitcher since at least 1900.

Here are the worst ten in team history, courtesy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

Rk	Worst OPS pitcher	Yr	OPS
T1	Vicente Palacios	1994	0.000
T1	John Fulgham	1980	0.000
3	Ron Taylor	1963	0.063
4	Bob Purkey	1965	0.084
5	Jose DeLeon	1991	0.087
6	Bill Doak	1913	0.095
7	Bill Doak	1923	0.104
8	Curt Simmons	1965	0.109
9	Paul Dean	1936	0.118
10	Mike Morgan	1996	0.121

The 2009 hitting data was already presented in the earlier article, “Wainwright wins 2009 Allen Watson Award”. Todd Wellemeyer’s .256 OPS brought up the rear as the worst mark for those pitchers with at least 30 plate appearances.

Here are those who would have been the Palacios Award winners this decade. Wellemeyer’s 2009 mark would not have been worst in eight of the last ten years. Anthony Reyes‘s .154 OPS in 2007 was the lowest qualifying mark since 2000. Chris Carpenter is the only name listed twice – in 2005 and 2006.

Year	Worst OPS pitcher	OPS
2009	Todd Wellemeyer	0.256
2008	Kyle Lohse	0.238
2007	Anthony Reyes	0.154
2006	Chris Carpenter	0.254
2005	Chris Carpenter	0.211
2004	Jeff Suppan	0.156
2003	Jason Simontacchi	0.289
2002	Chuck Finley	0.250
2001	Dustin Hermanson	0.206
2000	Garrett Stephenson	0.162

News item: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Chris Carpenter fanned ten Milwaukee batters over eight innings of work on Monday. Teammate Adam Wainwright fell just short the next night, as he retired a personal MLB-best nine Brewers hitters via strikeouts.

Carpenter’s Monday performance was only the second time a St. Louis pitcher has struck out as many opposing hitters in one contest since the start of the 2006 season. Not surprisingly, Carp delivered the previous 10+K outing, too. Back on June 13, 2006, he set his personal single-game high with 13 punchouts at Pittsburgh.

The rarity of such a feat causes the uninformed to nod their heads, noting the oft-discussed pitch-to-contact, groundball philosophy supposedly pushed by the Cardinals organization.

In discussing his long-time pitching coach Dave Duncan, Tony La Russa recently told me this:

“We always laugh when we talk about “The Dave Duncan Style”. It gets talked about a lot here in St. Louis – pitch to ground ball. Dave focuses on the abilities of the pitchers.”

In other words, when Duncan and La Russa are given strikeout pitchers, they are more than happy to take the Ks. In fact, over the first six seasons of this decade, the Cardinals amassed 34 occurrences in which the starter fanned ten or more.

The team’s average from 2000 through 2005 was almost six such games per season but as already noted, there have been just two in the 3 ¼ seasons since.

Not only were each of the Cardinals’ most recent 10K performances registered by Carpenter, but he also owns seven of the team’s last nine such games, going back to his St. Louis debut in the 2004 season. He authored four more during his Cy Young Award campaign in 2005.

Ten or more strikeout games by a Cardinals pitcher by season (2000-2009)

Year	Total	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#
2009	1	Chris Carpenter	1
2008	0
2007	0
2006	1	Chris Carpenter	1
2005	5	Chris Carpenter	4	Mark Mulder	1
2004	3	Chris Carpenter	1	Woody Williams	1	Matt Morris	1
2003	1	Matt Morris	1
2002	4	Matt Morris	2	Chuck Finley	2
2001	7	Matt Morris	4	Darryl Kile	3
2000	14	Rick Ankiel	6	Darryl Kile	5	Andy Benes	3

With his current total of seven 10K games this decade, Carpenter is just one behind the leaders, Matt Morris and the late Darryl Kile. Eight pitchers in total made the list.

Carpenter and Morris have the best single-game performances during the 2000s with 13 strikeouts. Chuck Finley and Mark Mulder each had a 12K outing.

Ten or more strikeout games (2000-2009) with bests by each pitcher

Pitcher	# 10K	Best game
Matt Morris	8	13
Darryl Kile	8	11
Chris Carpenter	7	13
Rick Ankiel	6	11
Andy Benes	3	10
Chuck Finley	2	12
Mark Mulder	1	12
Woody Williams	1	11

You may have noticed the fourth-place leader in the total number of 10K games, the only other one of the eight that is an active major leaguer today. In fact, he remains in the uniform as a current teammate of Carp, retired hurler Rick Ankiel. At the age of 20 and 21, the lefty had the best single-season for such feats during this time when he collected six in 2000 – a reminder of what could have been.

Striking out ten or more does not necessarily guarantee a win for the pitcher or his club. Carpenter has one of the seven losses taken, back in 2004, and two of the six no-decisions in these contests. Overall, the starters are 23-7-6 (.767) in the 10K games.

Pitcher	Win	Loss	No dec	Win pct.
Andy Benes	2	0	1	1.000
Mark Mulder	1	0		1.000
Matt Morris	5	1	2	0.833
Chris Carpenter	4	1	2	0.800
Rick Ankiel	4	1	1	0.800
Darryl Kile	6	2		0.750
Chuck Finley	1	1		0.500
Woody Williams	0	1		0.000
total	23	7	6	0.767

If he continues at his 2009 pace of one such game each fourth start, Carpenter will soon tie and then pass the Cardinals leaders in number of ten strikeout games this decade.

In closing, the individual summaries of the 36 performances follow. Andy Benes’ three 10K outings are especially notable in that they occurred in consecutive starts in June, 2000. The team had five that month as Ankiel and Kile each had one prior to Benes’ run.

Pitcher	Date	Opp	G	StL	Opp	App,	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
Chris Carpenter	5/25/2009	@MIL	L	0	1	GS-8		8	2	0	0	0	10
Chris Carpenter	6/13/2006	@PIT	W	2	1	GS-7	W	7	3	0	0	3	13
Chris Carpenter	8/7/2005	ATL	W	5	3	GS-8		8	4	2	2	2	10
Chris Carpenter	6/25/2005	PIT	W	8	0	SHO9	W	9	4	0	0	0	11
Chris Carpenter	6/14/2005	@TOR	W	7	0	SHO9	W	9	1	0	0	1	10
Mark Mulder	5/9/2005	LAD	W	4	2	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	2	12
Chris Carpenter	4/27/2005	MIL	W	6	3	GS-8	W	7	8	3	3	0	12
Matt Morris	9/3/2004	LAD	W	3	0	SHO9	W	9	2	0	0	0	11
Chris Carpenter	8/26/2004	@CIN	L	0	1	CG 8	L	8	3	1	1	1	11
Woody Williams	8/18/2004	CIN	L	4	5	GS-6	L	6	9	5	5	1	11
Matt Morris	4/5/2003	HOU	L	1	2	GS-8		8	3	0	0	2	10
Chuck Finley	9/1/2002	@CHC	L	4	5	GS-8	L	7	5	5	5	5	12
Chuck Finley	8/21/2002	PIT	W	4	1	GS-8	W	8	3	1	1	2	10
Matt Morris	5/8/2002	@CHC	W	3	2	GS-8	W	8	4	2	2	4	10
Matt Morris	4/23/2002	@NYM	L	3	4	GS-7	L	7	8	4	4	2	10
Matt Morris	10/4/2001	@MIL	W	10	3	GS-6	W	6	3	0	0	3	10
Darryl Kile	9/26/2001	@HOU	W	5	1	GS-7	W	7	4	0	0	2	10
Matt Morris	9/19/2001	MIL	W	8	2	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	1	13
Matt Morris	7/14/2001	DET	W	3	2	GS-8	W	7	5	2	2	2	11
Darryl Kile	6/18/2001	CHC	W	6	2	GS-7	W	7	5	2	2	1	11
Darryl Kile	5/22/2001	@MIL	L	0	5	GS-8	L	7	7	5	4	1	10
Matt Morris	5/2/2001	@FLA	W	4	2	GS-9		8	8	2	1	1	11
Rick Ankiel	9/13/2000	@PIT	W	9	5	GS-7	W	6	7	4	2	0	11
Darryl Kile	9/7/2000	MON	W	6	1	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	1	10
Rick Ankiel	7/27/2000	ARI	L	5	17	GS-5	L	4	6	6	6	2	10
Rick Ankiel	7/21/2000	@HOU	W	12	1	GS-7	W	7	3	1	1	3	11
Darryl Kile	7/2/2000	HOU	L	3	6	GS-7	L	7	7	5	5	1	10
Andy Benes	6/23/2000	LAD	W	9	6	GS-7		7	5	2	2	3	10
Andy Benes	6/17/2000	@LAD	W	4	3	GS-6	W	6	7	2	2	2	10
Andy Benes	6/12/2000	@SDP	W	7	3	GS-6	W	6	6	3	3	2	10
Darryl Kile	6/7/2000	KCR	W	4	2	CG 9	W	9	7	2	2	1	10
Rick Ankiel	6/4/2000	CLE	L	2	3	GS-5		5	5	2	2	0	11
Rick Ankiel	5/25/2000	FLA	W	7	6	GS-7	W	6	7	4	4	0	11
Darryl Kile	5/23/2000	FLA	W	10	3	GS-8	W	8	4	2	2	3	11
Darryl Kile	4/25/2000	MIL	W	7	2	GS-7	W	7	6	2	2	1	10
Rick Ankiel	4/9/2000	MIL	W	11	2	GS-6	W	6	3	2	2	3	10

Special thanks to statman Tom Orf for collecting this historical data.