I have been thinking about the made-for-pre-spring camp excitement surrounding the assignment of uniform number 3 to St. Louis Cardinals non-roster invitee Ruben Gotay. There are those convinced the number means the infielder is considered a front-runner to make the opening day roster.

We don’t need to look back very far to find history littered with bodies with pasts that look a lot like Gotay’s – former major leaguer with ample minor league time, especially most recently.

This doesn’t mean I am pounding on Ruben, a Caribbean Series teammate of Yadier Molina with Team Puerto Rico in 2007, the latter who maybe not so coincidentally happens to wear number 4. I am just pointing out a well-established pattern. Recent results indicate former MLB second-base retreads auditioned in Cardinals spring camp just haven’t cut it no matter what number was on their back.

Following are the players tried in similar circumstances over the last five springs. Only one of them ever made it far enough to claim a regular season major league roster spot with the Cardinals at any time, let alone opening day.

That lone survivor was Joe Thurston last year and the only reason he made it was due to opportunity elsewhere in the infield – all the third basemen who managed to eliminate themselves from contention. Once there, Thurston remained, but didn’t produce consistently and wasn’t asked back for 2010.

Of the others, one was cut by the conclusion of camp, while the remaining three toiled in Memphis for at least part of the subsequent season, a most possible 2010 destination for Gotay. Even with him included, the youngest at 27, the group averages the ripe old age of 31.

One common thread is terrible spring training results at the plate, a collective .207 batting average. They weren’t so hot defensively, either. They averaged two errors each, despite the briefest of cameos by Dave Berg in 2006 and Wilton Guerrero the previous March.

In terms of uniform numbers, while none had a number above 28, neither were any of the failed combatants issued 3 like Gotay. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a recent number 3 working at second base in spring camp, however.

The group of NRIs does not include a pair of failed candidates in 2006. Believe it or not, coming into camp that spring, both Junior Spivey (pictured), wearing number 3, and Deivi Cruz, sporting number 35, were on the 40-man roster. That that didn’t last long and like the vast majority of the NRIs noted above, neither Spivey nor Cruz appeared in a regular-season game for St. Louis. Here is how they did in 2006 camp.

Of course as was evident in the Thurston case last spring, opportunity can pop up even when it is not expected. Someone else’s misfortune can open a door that previously looked to be closed.

Still, the future was far from bright for these infielders, even after leaving the Cardinals organization behind. Including Spivey and Cruz, of the earlier six, only two ever appeared in the major leagues again for any club following their brief stop in Cardinals camp. They are Jimenez (Washington, 2007) and Cabrera (Cincinnati, 2008).

Thurston is in the Braves camp this spring at least, though on a minor league deal of course, and Gotay still has his Cardinals bid in front of him. I don’t like the chances of either, though…

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As most St. Louis Cardinals fans know by now, the club and second baseman Skip Schumaker came to an agreement on a two-year contract to avoid arbitration. The base amounts are $2 million in 2010 and $2.7 million next year with additional appearance-related bonuses that could take the total to $5 million.

My initial view was slightly positive as it looks to be a case where both sides gave a bit. The Cards took two years at a decent price and Skip received another year of security, something he said was important to him.

Based on the comps I posted earlier for The Cardinal Nation subscribers, I believe Skip had a decent chance of winning his arbitration case. Had he made over $2.4 million this year via arbitration, barring a collapse he would have made more next year ($3-$3.5M would not seem unreasonable). At that price, the Cards could have been tempted to non-tender Schumaker next winter.

Instead, this way Skip knows he can stay and the club will at most spend $5 million over two years to cover the position. The alternative may have been to spend as much as $6 million to keep him for the two years going year-by-year or finding a new second baseman for 2011 that would cost $3 million or less.

Another factor to consider is the lack of proven depth in the Cardinals outfield. Schumaker has demonstrated his ability to play all three positions, increasing his value to the club.

According to The Biz of Baseball, the rate of multi-year contracts for arbitration-eligible players who exchanged figures with clubs is slightly up this year. In 2009, 11 of 46 eligible players received multiple years while here in 2010, 12 of 44 have gone that route, with 12 situations still open, heading toward hearings.

As the discussion continued on The Cardinal Nation message board, another perspective was put forward. Among the legitimate questions posed:

• Is Skip is good enough to warrant the need to lock him up for an extra year?
• Is the potential of saving a million dollars worth giving up the non-tender option for the Cardinals?
• Is Skip more than a platoon second baseman who struggles in the field?
• Is Schumaker a value at this price?

I decided to take a quick and dirty look at what the second base market might be like next year, using this year as a guide. This effort is not to suggest the Cardinals should not have signed Schumaker to a 2010 contract, but more to consider what their alternatives might have looked like a year into the future.

I am assuming Skip’s immediate replacement would not have come from within. While Daniel Descalso is a fringe top ten prospect in the organization, he is not a sure thing with just one-half year of standout offensive performance in three professional seasons and a sub-.700 OPS over the remainder of his minor league career. There isn’t anyone on Descalso’s heels, either. Our annual Cardinals Top 40 Prospect List at The Cardinal Nation includes just one second baseman for the second consecutive year.

This winter, there were nine free agent second basemen on the market. Eight of them have found homes for 2010, the lone exception being former Cardinal Felipe Lopez.  Most are in their 30’s. Five of the nine could be free agents again next winter. Though he was not a free agent, I included Schumaker in the group for comparison.

I listed the 2009 contributions of each player, using OPS+ for offense and UZR at second base for defense. With those scores, I ranked each of the players from 1-to-10 in each category and added the two numbers. Like in golf, low score is better. The ten second basemen are listed in that sequence.

Further, to the right, I listed the players’ 2010 and 2011 salaries, noting any additions, such as options or incentives.

* Not a free agent

Based on these measures of offensive and defensive contribution in 2009, Lopez stood substantially taller than any of the other nine. In between big-bucks signees Marco Scutaro and Freddy Sanchez are a pair of aging reserves coming off nice years, Craig Counsell and another ex-Cardinal, Ronnie Belliard.

Amid questions about his wrist, his defense and second-half falloff, new Minnesota Twin Orlando Hudson leads off the bottom five. In a most interesting comparison, both of the second basemen paid by the Cardinals last year posted OPS+ marks of 101, Adam Kennedy with Oakland and Schumaker. The former had a less-negative UZR.

Bringing up the rear is Kelly Johnson, who had a subpar year offensively with Atlanta and looks to rebound with Arizona in 2010. A year ago, some Cardinals fans endorsed a straight up trade of Johnson for Ryan Ludwick, an indication of Johnson’s prior success.

Conclusions?

A quick spreadsheet analysis like this of a single season has its obvious limitations, but if the 2009-10 free agent market is any indication of what 2010-11 will be like, then it certainly seems like a Schumaker replacement could be out there for the taking at a comparable price next winter.

My question is whether the likes of Counsell, Belliard, Carroll, Kennedy or Johnson would really be any better than Schumaker in 2011. At least Skip has the chance of improving his defense this coming season, and in doing so, perhaps moving up in the scoring hierarchy. His offense probably is where it is going to be. Clearly the top tier of Scutaro, Sanchez and Hudson are out of Skip’s league price-wise.

Then there’s Lopez, with the best 2009 UZR at second base and tied for the top OPS+ last season. Why is he still out of work?

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Since I was working on a similar piece but was beat to the punch by Derrick, I am going to take an alternate angle on the subject. My focus is second basemen tried in spring training during the last half-dozen years who crashed and burned instead of making the major league club.

I believe this is most topical, given the large quantity and unproven quality of the players competing for the newly-opened second base job.

The public contenders include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden, Joe Thurston, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Tyler Greene, not to mention the guy getting all the ink, outfielder Skip Schumaker, who will be the most-watched player in camp as he attempts to play second base for the very first time. As if there wasn’t enough pressure on Skip before, the Monday release of Adam Kennedy just turned up the burners substantially.

I bring up the past here in an attempt to at least give pause to those who advocate the Cardinals bringing in a tired, out-of-work second baseman to compete with the younger players for the job. Recent results indicate over-30 retreads auditioned just haven’t cut it.

Following are six players tried over the last four springs, none of whom ever made it far enough to claim a spot on Goold’s long list of regular-season second basemen. Most all of these players were primarily second sackers, though all could call the position home.

One was cut by the conclusion of camp, while most toiled in Memphis for at least part of the subsequent season. Again, their common thread other than terrible spring training results (collective .169 batting average) was that none of the 2005 through 2008 players listed below reached St. Louis during the regular season.

Spring	Player	Roster	Age	Errors	BA	ABs	Team ABs	Disposition
2008	D’Angelo Jimenez	NRI	30	3	0.237	38	38	Memphis
2007	Jolbert Cabrera	NRI	34	4	0.151	53	53	Memphis
2006	Junior Spivey	40-man	31	5	0.147	68	109	Memphis
	Deivi Cruz	40-man	33	0	0.146	41		Released
2005	Mike Bell	NRI	30	0	0.000	8	16	Memphis
	Wilton Guerrero	NRI	30	0	0.125	8		Memphis
2004	Bo Hart	40-man	27	3	0.206	68	68	Memphis
Average			31		0.169		57

In addition, I listed a seventh player, 2004 flameout Bodhi Hart. I will blame that on Goold. As he noted in one of those terrible flashbacks, that spring was a time when Hart was being encouraged to switch-hit. It was a last-straw attempt to recapture the 2003 Bo-Mania that had long since worn off.

The reality had set in that Bo wasn’t able to handle the off-speed pitch and as such, wasn’t really major league material. Still, Cardinals fans used to rooting for scrappy, underdog second basemen (Stubby Clapp, anyone?) had snapped up number 31 jerseys like hotcakes during the magical summer (for Hart, at least) of 2003.

Though it was his best chance in 2004, Hart not only did not make the club that spring, in fact he actually never made an opening day Cardinals roster in his short career. That season, he was recalled from Memphis on April 11, but by the end of the month was optioned out, never to be seen again in the majors.

Because of that, I will point out that technically, Hart should not be on this list due to his MLB swan song, those final 13 major-league at-bats in April, 2004 before he drifted off into baseball obscurity.

Still, Hart’s mention here makes sense to me in the context of observing the wasting of spring at-bats on players heading nowhere. Over the last five years, the Cardinals have burned up on the average 57 at-bats per spring on this bunch.

Here in 2009 with the especially large number of unproven players in the competition needing as many looks as possible, I hope we don’t witness the likes of another Junior Spivey (pictured) on the fields of Jupiter anytime soon. I also hope real prospects can see the bulk of the 2009 regular-season action in Memphis instead of more members of the over-30 gang soaking up time and space.

If the spring second base experiments all fail, there will still be time and opportunity at the end of camp to take corrective action if necessary. Unless a true proven MLB second baseman is brought in to St. Louis in the interim, which seems unlikely at this point based on GM John Mozeliak’s current remarks, I say, “Let the kids play”.