The St. Louis Cardinals have long professed a desire to build a steady supply of low-salaried prospects to fuel the needs of the major league club. Its implementation had some major ups and downs in 2010, however.

As the minor league pipeline was tapped and soon went dry, the organization went outside for a number of 30-something veterans. Most of them performed below expectations for a 2010 Cardinals club that can be summarized similarly.

Here is a bit of how it came about.

As May concluded and the first third of the schedule was history, it was clear that the Cardinals had lost their early-season momentum. A National League Central lead that had grown to five games on May 3 had eroded to a one-game divisional deficit as June began.

Rookies Jaime Garcia and David Freese contributed out of the gate, but reserve outfielders Allen Craig and Joe Mather had been among the strugglers. Jon Jay had posted an unimpressive OPS of .625 in his first full month as a major leaguer in May.

Starting pitchers Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse went down due to injury on consecutive days in mid-May and Freese would soon be sidelined for an extended period as well. Pitchers P.J. Walters, Adam Ottavino and Evan MacLane were tried but lacked desired consistency.

Rather than continuing to exclusively call on players from Triple-A, the Cardinals instead began to turn to a series of in-season additions of fringe major leaguers no longer wanted by other clubs. They included veterans Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan, Mike MacDougal and Pedro Feliz. In each case, a younger player was returned to Triple-A to make room.

Each of the five veterans ended up playing a considerable role for the 2010 Cardinals. By necessity, several may have been asked to do more than ideal.

The three position players saw approximately 440 plate appearances in total while the two pitchers tossed almost 90 innings. Suppan was the only one of the five that delivered above-average results as measured by OPS+ and ERA+.

On June 1, the Cardinals were 30-22 (.577). The rest of the way, the club went 56-54 (.509), falling short of the post-season. While there were many favors behind the struggles, on the whole, these additions certainly didn’t spark a playoff run.

Miles was the first notable veteran signed. The Cardinals placed the second baseman on their 40-man and 25-man active rosters on June 1. The 33-year-old had been playing with Springfield since joining the Double-A club on May 13. Released by the Cincinnati Reds in the spring, the switch-hitter signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals on April 27. Miles was given the most time at second base, but also appeared at short, third and even pitched twice.

Four days after Miles reported, on June 5, the switch-hitting outfielder Winn joined St. Louis after having been designated for assignment by the New York Yankees. The 36-year-old had batted just .213 while wearing pinstripes. Winn performed better with the bat as a Cardinal, but it became clear his defensive skills had eroded.

The next addition was Suppan, a familiar face. The 35-year-old former Cardinal returned to the team on June 14 after being released by Milwaukee. In 15 games with the Brewers, he had gone went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA. Following eight appearances with St. Louis, Suppan was placed on the disabled list on July 31 due to a groin injury and was not reactivated until rosters expanded in September. His appearances seemed carefully selected and his work monitored closely.

On July 8, a day after their bullpen had an embarrassing meltdown in Colorado, the Cardinals added a reliever in the former MLB All-Star MacDougal. The 33-year-old right-hander had been released by Florida in spring training and opted out of his minor league deal with Washington on July 1. Upon signing with the Cardinals, MacDougal was assigned to Triple-A Memphis. On July 28, the Cardinals purchased his contract. In 17 games with St. Louis, MacDougal continued his long-established pattern of hard-throwing inconsistency.

The ongoing health problems of Freese coupled with the struggles of Felipe Lopez led the Cardinals to acquire a third baseman for the stretch run. On August 19, Class A reliever David Carpenter was sent to the Houston Astros with Feliz and cash considerations heading in the other direction. The 35-year-old Feliz was batting .221 for Houston before losing his starting job and performed even worse offensively in his brief stint with St. Louis.

Each of the five is among the team’s six free agents not expected back for 2011. (Brad Penny is the other.) Though more players could be added between now and spring camp, the current outlook for the opening-season bench once again includes a generous quantity of youngsters.

If the kids struggle, will the organization stick with them or import a new crop of golden oldies, and if so, will the results be better next time?

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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Ever since Kyle Lohse joined the St. Louis Cardinals in 2008, I have thought of him and now-teammate Jeff Suppan in a similar way along the following basic formula.

1. Starting pitcher who was below average elsewhere.
2. Pitched very well for St. Louis.
3. Received four-year contract in excess of $40 million.
4. Returned to previous form.

Of course, the major difference is that Suppan received his mega-deal from Milwaukee while Lohse remained a Cardinal. In terms of contract time-frames, Suppan is two years ahead of Lohse.

In the table below, note the similarity of their pre-Cardinals histories. They then each lowered their ERAs by a full run under Dave Duncan before reaching new lows following their big contracts.

This season as Cardinals starters, the two have combined to go 3-12 while averaging just five innings per start. In their 22 starts, the team is just 8-14.

Lohse has been named the defacto fifth starter for the remainder of the season and gets the ball Sunday night against Atlanta.

Though it would likely be no better than applying salve on a gaping wound, I’ve wondered why the Cardinals don’t just pair the two up as they do with minor leaguers in a piggyback or tandem arrangement.

I suggest this only half-jokingly, considering they are five-inning pitchers at best and like many pitchers, fare poorer the more looks opposing hitters get at them. Here are the opposing hitters’ OPS by times through the batting order this season.

Consider matchups to determine which of the two should start, likely Lohse in most cases. Then plan to get Suppan up in the fourth or fifth inning and have him take over in relief so later than the sixth.

Of course, it would be unrealistic to reverse that 3-12 record, but still, a nine-game swing would have cured much of what ails the Cardinals’ bottom line.

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ last two series-ending games have been major disappointments. Co-ace Adam Wainwright’s uncharacteristically poor and brief four-inning start on Thursday to close the Toronto set began an unenviable streak of short starts. It is one that Chris Carpenter will be trying to end when he faces Arizona at Busch Stadium on Monday night.

Jaime Garcia also had his worst outing of the season on Sunday, going just two innings in Kansas City while yielding five earned runs.

In between the two unexpected bookends, Jeff Suppan and Blake Hawksworth went just five innings each on Friday and Saturday, respectively. That was more expected.

As such, the starting staff returns home hoping to end their unenviable run of going five innings or less in four consecutive games.

It is a stretch of rough pitching the likes of which has been seen by Cardinals fans just three times in the last three seasons – none last season, once in 2008 and twice in 2007. The worst streak was six such games, accrued in September 2007.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of five or fewer innings, summary, 2007-current

Braden Looper was the constant in all three prior stretches.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of five or fewer innings, detail, 2007-current

If one expands the aperture to streaks of six innings or less, one more bad run in 2008 is added and two more in 2007, a very rough season for the defending World Champions.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of six or fewer innings, summary, 2007-current

Likely one of the reasons that the youthful Cardinals relief corps came into Sunday with the second lowest ERA in the National League at 3.09 was that they haven’t been overused. In fact, almost ¾ of NL bullpens, 11 of 16, have pitched more innings than St. Louis’ 210 this season.

Obviously, if the starters will continue to exit as early as they have over the most recent four games, the bullpen will surely suffer as well.

Then, there is the Cardnials’ inconsistent offense…

(Thanks to Tom Orf for providing the game detail.)

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By Ian Walton

In his first start for the Cardinals since 2006 and following his release by the Milwaukee Brewers, Jeff Suppan allowed only one run in four innings pitched on Tuesday evening against the Seattle Mariners in what must be considered a successful outing during a 4-2 Cardinals victory.

After loading the bases in the first inning with two outs, Suppan coaxed a fielder’s choice groundout by Josh Wilson.  A double by Rob Johnson in the second inning was promptly followed by four straight strikeouts. A home run by Milton Bradley in the fourth was the only other hit he surrendered before being pulled from the game following a double of his own and a run scored in the bottom of the fourth.

Having spent the better part of the season in Milwaukee’s bullpen, Suppan was understandably stopped at 73 pitches.  Forty-six of those pitches were thrown for strikes and he ended up with four strikeouts against two walks and four hits.

As can be seen above, Suppan had good command of his fastball (FF) against right-handed batters, hugging close to the lower and outside edges of the strike zone in many cases.  His curveballs (CU) all missed low.  One can see a few changeups (CH), cutters (FC), and a slider (SL) thrown in, according to PitchFX.

Against left-handed batters, Suppan was less selective with his fastball, leaving many more in the center of the plate.  In aggregate, Suppan threw 30 of his 41 fastballs for strikes on the night.  His changeup predictably worked the outer half of the plate while a few of his curveballs managed to land for strikes this time.  In total, only five of his 14 curveballs thrown were registered as strikes however (with one a missed swing).

As per normal, Suppan hid his pitch selection well upon release as can be seen above.  His curveballs, fastballs, and changeups all left from the same location, which was an important deception along with his ability to change speeds.  Despite a fastball that topped out at 89 MPH, he averaged a seven MPH difference between his fastball and changeup and a 14 MPH difference between his fastball and curve.

Suppan seemed to fall right back into Dave Duncan’s standard game plan, inducing plenty of ground balls by pitching to contact.  He tallied six groundouts on the night as opposed to only two fly outs.  Only five of his 46 strikes were swung upon and missed.

In conclusion, while not spectacular in his short outing on Tuesday night, Jeff Suppan likely exceeded most expectations and represented a notable upgrade over recently demoted starters Adam Ottavino and P.J. Walters.  To review:

Positives

• Fastball thrown for strikes, with good command shown against RHB

• Ten of 12 outs recorded by strikeout or groundout

• Release points and pitch speeds led to reasonable deception

Negatives

• Too many pitches to LHB thrown in the center of the plate

• Ineffective curveball often landed low and didn’t fool anyone

Brooks Baseball generated the graphs used in this article.

By Ian Walton

Apparently fed up with giving starts to the likes of P.J. Walters and Blake Hawksworth, the Cardinals have decided to do their starting rotation what they have been doing to their bench of late, sign another team’s discard to take the place of a rookie.  In this instance, former Cardinal Jeff Suppan joins Aaron Miles and Randy Winn in making the team older, if not particularly more or less talented.

It isn’t news that Jeff Suppan, despite being a nice guy by many accounts, is not a very good pitcher any more.  You don’t need me to tell you that.  The Brewers, who as of 6/10 were ranked 15^th of 16 National League teams in ERA with a 5.30 mark, released the guy despite owing him $12.5M this season.  He’s 35 years old.  His fastball lies at 87-88 MPH.  His walk rate per nine innings pitched during his three full seasons with the Brewers increased from 2.96 to 3.39 to 4.12.  His strikeout rate per nine decreased from 4.96 to 4.56 to 4.45.  His 12 wild pitches last season were the third most thrown in the National League.  The man held a 7.84 ERA in 31 innings this season.  Jeff Suppan is a bad pitcher who is only getting worse.

He isn’t all that bad, however.  He isn’t really a 7.84 ERA pitcher.  He has been unlucky this season and offers a number of reasons for Cardinal fans not to be entirely discouraged by his signing:

• He has a legitimate starter’s repertoire of pitches.  According to Pitch F/X, he mixes a four-seam fastball with a slider, a curveball, a changeup, and a cut fastball.  At very least, he can keep hitters guessing which one of his mediocre pitches will be thrown.

• His changeup, which was his only above average pitch last season according to FanGraphs, is getting absolutely destroyed this season.  One reason might be that he has been throwing it at a meager 79.6 MPH this year, down a full 1.5 MPH from 2009.  Considering that his fastball isn’t getting any slower, Dave Duncan might convince him to take less off of the change in hopes of hitters having a little less time to react to it.  If that doesn’t work, he can always scrap the pitch in favor of the cutter that he has started throwing this season.

• His groundball percentage in 2010 is only 37.5%, down from 48.9% in 2009.  If anyone can help him fix this particular flaw, it is Dave Duncan.

• Opposing hitters have a .399 batting average on balls in play in 2010 against Suppan, which is dramatically higher than his career .303 value.  He has been unlucky this year, plain and simple.

• This year, his K/9 rate is 5.23 and his BB/9 rate is 3.48, which are noted improvements over his 4.45 and 4.12 values in 2009 as listed earlier.  Again, he has pitched moderately well for being Jeff Suppan despite his inflated ERA.

So maybe the Jeff Suppan signing won’t really be all that bad.  P.J. Walters gave up 13 earned runs over his last eight innings pitched.  Blake Hawksworth gave up six earned runs in four innings during his past start.  Even 2010 Jeff Suppan was better than that, and 2010 Jeff Suppan has been rather unlucky.  A reasonable case can be made that he is legitimately the Cardinals’ fifth best healthy starting pitching option at this point.  As a $12.5M pitcher, Jeff Suppan was an outlandish disappointment.  As a pro-rated league minimum pitcher, he could get the job done until Brad Penny returns from the DL.  I can’t fault the Cardinals for trying.

The term “walk year” is commonly defined as the final season of a player’s contract prior to when he becomes free agent eligible. The view is that the player can walk away from his current team and ostensibly join a new, higher-paying one – if the results are there.

Just prior to training camp and before the very first injury is reported is the time of the year when optimism is at its peak – and when “walk years” get tossed around as a potential reason for players to improve their performance.

Reporting on a recent discussion with St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan the other day, the Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz turned the phrase in question when referring to number five-by-a-thread starting pitcher Joel Pineiro (pictured).

“Duncan didn’t say this, but I will: remember, Pineiro is pitching for a new contract. He’s in his walk-year of a two year deal,” Miklasz offered.

After letting that sink in a bit, I went looking for some fact-or-fiction justification addressing walk years, sort of like I do whenever my brother-in-law emails me another idiotic urban legend that he thinks is real – you know, like the old yarn about earthworms in McDonalds hamburger meat.

I did find a 2003 study at ESPN, written by an author of Baseball Prospectus. Since it was a BP author after all, he couldn’t resist using their PECOTA predictions instead of actual results. To top it off, he compared players to other players instead of to themselves over a single year.

Other external factors like injury, role changes, schedule differences and Father Time are acknowledged as variables that cannot be properly accounted for, a valid point for any method used, in my opinion.

The headline of that story: ‘Hitters love the ‘walk year’. It’s conclusion:

“… this quick statistical glance does indicate that there might well be something to the motivational effect of the walk year, at least for hitters.”

Hardly conclusive, but I was amused by the most-valid point made that at its essence, hopes of walk year success is fueled by a basic belief that if only the player tried harder, he would perform better. Sort of like the old Janis Joplin tune, “Try Just a Little Bit Harder”, which ironically popped up on my satellite radio receiver just as I was typing this.

Instead of hope, I’d like to grab onto something more meaty, or should I say, substantial.

What I am going to do here is compare the stats of former Cardinals players for the duration of their Cardinals career prior to their walk year with their walk year itself. I strongly believe that for relevance, a player needs to be compared to himself, not to a body of other players as in the ESPN study.

My ground rules are simple: The player had to have been a Cardinal for at least three seasons, had a multi-year contract and departed via free agency, as opposed to trade, release or retirement. The idea behind three years is to have at least two years of results prior to the walk year. A multi-year deal is required to ensure not every comparison year was a walk year, too.

The Cardinals saw 12 such walk year players depart the organization in the last six years.

For pitcher stats, I selected ERA+ as the measurement, which takes into account performance relative to the league each season. For the hitters, I used OPS+ for the same reason.

I am showing each player’s St. Louis high- and low-water marks but am using the average ERA+ or OPS+ to compare against each player’s walk season. The bar isn’t that high, in my opinion. All the player has to do is post an above-average year. Either the walk season is higher than his previous average with the club or it isn’t.

	walk year	walk ERA+/OPS+	average	previous year	StL high	StL low
Jason Isringhausen	2008	75	164	177	198	75
Braden Looper	2008	102	107	89	125	94
Mark Mulder	2008	39	71	36	116	36
David Eckstein	2007	93	90	81	99	81
Jason Marquis	2006	74	109	102	115	74
Jeff Suppan	2006	108	111	119	119	103
Matt Morris	2005	103	126	90	167	90
Mike Matheny	2004	65	67	79	79	51
Edgar Renteria	2004	88	99	130	139	77
Woody Williams	2004	102	151	106	189	102
Steve Kline	2004	239	155	108	240	108
Fernando Vina	2003	82	92	79	100	79

The story is pretty compelling.

The results of ten of the 12 players or 83% DECLINED in their walk year over their previous years’ Cardinals average. Only two players, David Eckstein in 2007 and Steve Kline in 2004, improved in their final season.

Lowering the criteria to simply improving in one year – in the walk year compared to the previous single season – delivers slightly better results. In that case, six of the 12 or 50% showed improvement in their final season over their second-to-last with St. Louis.

The six improvers are Braden Looper (2008), Mark Mulder (2008), Eckstein (2007), Matt Morris (2005), Kline (2004) and Fernando Vina (2003).

However, Mulder’s numbers were so bad in both years (39 vs. 36 ERA+) that calling his 2008 season a step up over his 2007 would be a cruel joke. Putting him aside would drop the walk year-to-previous year success rate to 5-of-11 or 45%.

Further, three of the 12 walk year performances represented the player’s absolutely WORST year as a Cardinal. They include Jason Isringhausen (2008), Jason Marquis (2006) and Woody Williams (2004).

On the other hand, not a single one of the dozen players had their BEST year in St. Louis during their final season there.

Conclusion: You can pick your favorite reason as to why, but the data has spoken. Considering the most recent six years at least, expecting walk year improvement for impending St. Louis Cardinals free agents, whether pitchers or hitters, is a low odds proposition at best.

Sorry, Joel, but it looks like there is a very good reason Duncan didn’t say it.

Addendum: After publishing, I recalled that Jim Edmonds was in his walk year in 2006, just before then-GM Walt Jocketty surprised both the player and the Cardinal Nation by ill-advisedly offering Jimmy two more years. As we know, the Cards ate $2 million just to get out of year two.

	walk year	walk ERA+/OPS+	average	previous year	StL high	StL low
Jim Edmonds	2006	110	153	137	170	110

Anyway, Edmonds just reinforces the conclusion already made, as his 2006 “walk year” was his worst as a Cardinal up to that point. (He posted an OPS+ of 88 in his final St. Louis season, 2007.)

There may have been other mid-Cardinals career walk years that I missed here, but I think the point has been adequately made.

Like so many of the off-season concerns expressed recently, they aren’t new. Yet over time, the facts seem to support the view that the Cardinals have done a pretty good job of letting players leave before they hit bottom.

The jury will be out for some time as to the wisdom of any of the recent departures including Miles’ case, the one that currently seems to be most anger-causing.

In the meantime, I thought I would put together a Cardinals “Let ‘em Go” Team from this decade, just to remind us all that the guys in charge of the team generally do seem to know what they are doing.

To qualify for this team, the Cardinals player had to leave St. Louis as a free agent since 2000 and sign a subsequent contract with a new organization. In some cases, the Cardinals may have been in the bidding, but at some point, another club bested their offer. Other times, St. Louis may never have made a serious bid for the player to return. In selecting players, strong preference was given to players that turned out to be overpaid and underperforming in their new locales.

With the late addition of first baseman John Mabry, I was able to build a full lineup, including five starting pitchers and a reliever throwing from each side. Given the middle infield churn in recent years, it wasn’t surprising that five of them are on the team. Outfield was the biggest challenge to fill, but ultimately, three examples could be found.

While most of these moves occurred on the watch of former GM Walt Jocketty, Mozeliak was previously his top assistant and seems to have adopted a similar stance in such matters.

I’ve been around long enough to remember each one of the situations listed below and recall at least some considerable segment of the Cardinal Nation complaining about the team’s loss every single time. Yet the reality is that it is a necessary part of the game.

+ denotes having played with multiple clubs since leaving the Cardinals

* third and final stint with St. Louis

In many cases, the big savings was in money not spent. Matt Morris (pictured – $27 million) and Edgar Renteria ($40 million) are good examples of this.

For other ex-Cards, the savings came in the form of negatives avoided as the player’s results on the field dropped off badly upon leaving St. Louis. For example, among the starting pitchers, only Jason Marquis had an above-.500 record after leaving the Cards and he was recently booted out of the Cubs rotation before being shipped to pitching purgatory, otherwise known as Colorado. The Cubs also paid the Rox $875,000 to take him.

Other benefits were gained down the line in players received via compensatory draft picks. For example, the reason Chris Perez is the favorite to become the Cardinals closer is because the team received a supplemental pick when Morris signed with the San Francisco Giants. Even better is top prospect Colby Rasmus, selected with Boston’s first-round pick in 2005 forfeited when the Sox signed Renteria.

Finally, some gains were achieved in roster savings such as when popular outfield reserve So Taguchi departed, making room for a younger, more talented player such as Skip Schumaker.

Not all the divorces were amicable, as several of the departing players grumbled about having been left in limbo by the organization. In other words, their feelings were hurt over not being told their services were no longer required as the club evaluated alternatives.

Still, with the full benefit of hindsight, when looking at the end results is there a single player on this list that the Cardinals should have kept?

So rather than complain about Miles and the other 2008 Cardinals that are gone for 2009, at least wait until next season is over to pass judgment.

First up was the next chapter in the continuing and heartwarming Mark Mulder feel-good story, clearly designed to try to drum up a market for a pitcher that hasn’t been able to pitch effectively for at least the last two years.

More details were “leaked” about the current nature of Mulder’s infamous arm slot – not as high as when he was dominant, but allegedly higher than with St. Louis this past season. The spices were emotional comments from Mulder himself, relayed by his helpful agent Gregg Clifton and new Brewers mamager Ken Macha.

While this is at least the third “Mulder is doing great” piece in recent weeks, no one has apparently seen him actually throw a baseball. At this point, the only team rumored to potentially have interest is Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds, which on one hand would be a curious destination, but on the other, quite fitting in a perverse sort of way. Yet, no teams have been named that actually admit tendering Mulder an offer.

As a result, there is more work for Clifton ahead. Expect the next installment of the Mulder propaganda in a couple of weeks. Feel free to ignore it, if you are so inclined.

Jim Edmonds, who is not being asked back to the Chicago Cubs for 2009, could become a target of the Red Sox, suggests Cafardo. The club is in the market for a fourth outfielder and Jimmy Ballgame’s 19 home runs for the Cubs have apparently generated attention.

To put that into perspective, if you add the 2008 home run counts of Cardinals outfielders Chris Duncan, Brian Barton, Joe Mather, Skip Schumaker and Nick Stavinoha, your total would be only 24 long balls. It took them 1105 at-bats to collectively achieve that.

Edmonds delivered his 19 in just 250 ABs.

While there was no doubt that then-GM Jocketty erred in giving Edmonds two years prior to the 2007 season, it is a shame that the outfielder could not have remained a Cardinal last year. In hindsight, perhaps it took his humbling failure with the San Diego Padres for Edmonds to accept he might be better deployed as a platoon player in the latter stage of his fine career.

A mercurial type, he might have never been able to bow to that reality in St. Louis. Too bad, but best of luck to Edmonds in wherever he lands in 2009.

(We’ll have to forgive Cafardo for not knowing JimEd flamed out to start the 2008 season with the Padres rather than the Cardinals. At least he understands there is baseball played outside the Northeast Corridor.)

Last but not least is underappreciated Braden Looper, who Cafardo fingers as being “close” to signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. It seems an ideal spot for the right-handed starter to land. Too bad it is a National League Central rival of St. Louis.

The Brew Crew’s 2008 playoff rotation took a major hit this off-season with the loss of C.C. Sabathia and the almost certain departure of Ben Sheets. They still have exciting youngster Yovani Gallardo and holdover Jeff Suppan, but clearly need outside help.

As an aside, Looper has Suppan partially to thank for receiving the opportunity to convert from relieving to starting in 2007. The two were teammates in St. Louis in 2006, with Suppan in the rotation and Looper in the bullpen. Once Suppan and Jeff Weaver departed after the World Championship season, Looper was drafted to help fill the starting gap the past two years. Now it is his turn to cash in.

Soup, a great guy if there ever was one, priced himself out of the Cardinals comfort range as he headed toward free agency. Suppan ended up signing with Milwaukee for four years, $42 million, a deal quite comparable to what the Cardinals and Kyle Lohse agreed to at season’s end. (Seems longer than 90 days ago, doesn’t it?)

While there is one parallel between Suppan and Looper in that they were cut loose, there is one huge difference.

The Jocketty-led Cardinals of the 2006-2007 off-season were quite comfortable that Suppan would not accept an offer of arbitration. As a result, they offered, Suppan declined as expected and the Cardinals collected a compensation-round draft pick plus the Brewers’ second-rounder when he signed with Milwaukee.

That comp round pick was turned into Clayton Mortensen, who has already reached Triple-A, and is indisputably a top 15 prospect in the system. (Milwaukee’s forfeited second rounder was used by the Cards to take Clemson’s David Kopp, currently our number 34 prospect in the Cardinals system.)

While the take for losing Looper this time around would have only been the sandwich pick, the Cardinals were overly cautious in deciding not to offer him arbitration. I still believe John Mozeliak and the Cards were unnecessarily worried that Looper would accept a one-year deal with them.

The decision not to make the offer to Looper left a valuable comp pick sitting on the table, never to be used. If the Cards go one step further and sign a Type A free agent such as reliever Brian Fuentes, their first 2009 draft pick would be in the 65-70 range. No talent anywhere near a Brett Wallace or Colby Rasmus level will still be left on the board.

Once Looper signs a nice, big two or three-year deal with Milwaukee (or elsewhere), it will become even more obvious that the Cardinals blew their chance to add another premium draft pick in a year when they could really use it.