For as much as St. Louis has enjoyed consistent success under the current ownership group, it has not been a springboard from which future big league leaders made their final external leap.

That changed on December 8 when Cardinals Vice President of Scouting and Player Development Jeff Luhnow was named as the new general manager of the Houston Astros.

Funny, but I haven’t read the “Harry Potter” digs about Luhnow in print for some time now. The 45-year-old is getting the last laugh at those who derided him over his last eight years leading player development for the St. Louis Cardinals and building the necessary base of experiences to take over his own organization.

As a result of Houston’s move, the Cardinals need to make a crucial appointment (or series of them) to replace him. Luhnow was the head of their amateur scouting and international functions as well as the First-Year Player Draft. He stepped out of his day-to-day supervisory role of the farm system last September, turning that over to his lieutenant, John Vuch.

Luhnow first joined the Cardinals in late 2003 and began his efforts in the establishment of player evaluation methods at both the amateur and professional levels. From the start, he clashed with traditionalists in the organization. This undercurrent of discord eventually led to the ouster of general manager Walt Jocketty following the 2007 season.

Born and raised in Mexico City and fluent in Spanish, Luhnow was an ideal choice to revitalize the club’s stagnant Latin American program, which he picked up in 2004. Scouting and development successes include Eduardo Sanchez, Carlos Martinez and Oscar Taveras with more in the pipeline.

Beginning in 2005, Luhnow directed the Cardinals drafts, during which time his classes were often recognized as among the better in the game. The players also later delivered at the big league level. For example, eight major leaguers drafted and developed during his tenure were active for the Cardinals in the 2011 post-season. They included key contributors Jaime Garcia, Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Lance Lynn.

Luhnow added player development responsibilities in 2006. He had a key role in the system’s successes in the minor leagues. Results include the best system-wide record across the minors in 2010 and five minor league team championships, all the way from rookie ball to Triple-A.

A few have suggested the Luhnow loss might be felt more acutely by the Cardinals than that of Albert Pujols. I would not go that far, but Luhnow clearly proved his detractors wrong while leaving some big shoes to fill.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
Follow TCN on Google+.

I included both quantities signed as well as noting the top pick that remained unsigned. The lowest-yield year was 2006, but even then, the Cards signed their top ten picks and 20 of their first 22.

The failed Kyle Russell (pictured) negotiations in 2007 kept the fourth-rounder from Texas in school. Though there was disappointment at the time, at least the player himself seems to have been overrated. Still, with the benefit of clear hindsight, having been able to use that selection on another quality player would have been preferred.

The 2008 record of top 30 picks signed is admirable, but there is a necessary asterisk applied. 13th rounder Mitchell Harris‘ Navy commitment keeps him off the mound for a considerable period. He is technically signed, but obviously unable to contribute.

The Cardinals have a good start in 2009, with as many as 38 already committed at the time this post was made. While picks number one, three, four, seven and ten are among the unsigned, there remains plenty of runway to get their deals done. If so, a take of 43 would be very consistent with recent years.

Of course, signing is but one measure. Though a necessary step, it is a very early one. More important is the quantity and quality of major leaguers that evolve from these drafts, a final verdict for which the jury will remain out for some time.

Draft	Signed	Picks	% Signed	Top Signed	1st Unsigned	Name
2009	TBD	52
2008	43	51	84.3%	1st 30*	30th round*	RHP Brett Bruening
2007	45	52	86.5%	1st four	4th round	OF Kyle Russell
2006	38	53	71.7%	1st 12	10th round	RHP Blair Erickson
2005	43	51	84.3%	1st 15	12th round	RHP Daniel McCutchen

One important area where I struggle with their perspective is the apparent lack of consistency and specifics in their evaluation of the system.

At times, the contention seems to be that the Cardinals overvalue their prospects. Upon occasion, they have referred to unnamed scouts from other organizations that are not high on the Cards’ top minor league players.

At other times, the Cardinals take hits over their supposed refusal to trade away prospects. The implication is that the organization is walking away from good trade offers based on principle. This could be independent of any potential overvaluation of these players by the Cardinals.

In his most recent article on the subject, columnist Bernie Miklasz asserts the following:

“Vice president of player development Jeff Luhnow will object to any deal that requires the bartering of his precious Faberge Eggs, which is the name I’ve given to the Cardinals’ long list of breathlessly hyped prospects. Why? Track record. They haven’t traded a Faberge Egg yet.”

Putting aside how anyone knows what Luhnow will or will not object to 100% of the time, I want to focus on the phrase, “the Cardinals’ long list of breathlessly hyped prospects.”

Which is it? Do the players on this extensive list of prospects have little value because they are overrated or do they have considerable value and the Cardinals just refuse to trade them? Can one have it both ways?

I am the first to admit that I didn’t buy the party line implication that Jason Motte for Will Ohman was the only possible trade that the Cardinals could have made last summer to help their floundering bullpen from the left side.

But which argument does this support?

Was not trading the organization’s seventh-ranked prospect (according to our off-season ranking at Scout.com) for two months worth of services of a left-handed relief specialist an indication of the Cards overvaluing Motte or were they foolish not to accept the Braves’ offer?

In other words, was Motte a precious Faberge Egg?

I suggest most Cardinals watchers would agree that this particular trade was best unmade. Yet none of us have any idea as to the specifics of some very high percentage of trades under consideration. As a result, it is pretty much impossible to gauge which Eggs are being inspected and bartered.

Yet I keep seeing these vague references to “precious Faberge Eggs” without any indication of exactly who they are. Let’s consider other recent trade talks that did become public.

The Cardinals dealt two prospects over the winter to acquire Khalil Greene. Were relievers Mark Worrell and Luke Gregerson Faberge Eggs? Apparently not, though both are products of the Cards’ farm system and are now major leaguers.

In our Cardinals prospect ranking, linked to above, Worrell came in at number 31 and Gregerson was listed at 37.

Mitchell Boggs (pictured), our eighth-ranked prospect, was reportedly part of the nixed deal to Colorado for Matt Holliday. I have seen no indications that Boggs’ inclusion was the deal-breaker, so I guess the number eight prospect isn’t an Egg either.

So exactly what defines these Eggs? Are they only the top twenty, ten or five prospects? Are they the recent first or second-round picks? Are they high school draftees or collegians? Are they at higher or lower levels in the system? Are they players currently performing well or underperforming?

Or is it a non-existent list that makes it easier for self-admitted skeptics to take potshots at every deal, real or imagined?

What do you think?

1) Exactly who are the Cardinals’ “precious Faberge Eggs”?

2) Should any of them be considered completely untouchable in terms of trade consideration, no matter the proposed deal?

Dear Sir,

A reader of my website sent me a copies of your articles “Joe Williams: Not Your Normal Prospect” posted on May 18, 2009 and “Does the Cardinals’ signing of Joe Williams have a deeper meaning?”, May 21, 2009.

After fourteen years of pitching major league baseball, I know that writers do not verify everything that they write and I am too old to care. Nevertheless, I have to take exception to something that Mr. Strauss said.

Mr. Strauss wrote,

“Marshall has been seeking audiences with numerous major-league organizations trying to regain a toe-hold in the industry.”

I am working as hard as I can to teach those in professional baseball how to eliminate all pitching injuries. However, I am not trying to regain a toe-hold in the industry, as though I ever had a toe-hold in professional baseball.

However, in your May 18, 2009 article, you got it right.

You wrote,

“Apparently not every organization is constrained by tradition, which has a direct relation to how Williams became a Cardinal. St. Louis Vice President of Scouting and Player Development Jeff Luhnow recently asked Marshall to come down to Extended Spring Training (EST) in Jupiter, FL to meet with his staff.”

The Cardinals invited me to explain how to eliminate pitching injuries. Actually, before spring training 2006, to learn how I train baseball pitchers, the Cardinals sent someone to my Baseball Pitching Research/Training Center. At the end of that session, I had convinced this young man that I knew how to eliminate pitching injuries.

Unfortunately, they decided to go another way.

Then, this spring, Mr. Luhnow invited me to Jupiter, FL and, after my presentation, as you wrote,

“Shortly after, Williams was invited to participate in the Cardinals’ camp, where he must have shown enough to the coaches to snag a contract.”

Joe’s mission was to prove that baseball pitchers I train can pitch every day without discomfort.

That Joe successfully pitched in eight of the thirteen games available apparently convinced the Cardinals that Joe had sufficient talent to invite Joe back into professional baseball.

I believe that, considering the circumstances, Joe did exceptionally well.

That they terminated Joe’s opportunity is unfortunate, nevertheless, it showed Joe that, with a real opportunity, he could become a major league pitcher. Where we go from here is the question.

Lastly, I want to thank you for writing,

“Even that may seem threatening to some, but I wonder what harm could be caused in being open-minded about new and different ways to teach and learn. Still, in a tradition-laden environment like baseball or journalism for that matter, old ways die hard and new ones are notoriously slow to take root.”

Sincerely,

Dr. Mike Marshall

Marshall seems to be a popular subject in the media recently. On Wednesday, The Discovery Channel – Canada ran a seven-minute feature that provides a glimpse of Marshall’s modest Florida facilities and stars Williams in his usual demonstration role. As opposed to the video I ran on Scout which shows Williams throwing various offerings, these clips illustrate a number of the exercises Marshall prescribes.

Marshall is a polarizing figure in organized ball as his methodologies are in conflict with traditional pitching teaching methods. Yet other than the low-risk signing of the 28-year-old Williams, I have seen no indication that the Cardinals are doing anything other than looking into what Marshall has to say.

Even that may seem threatening to some, but I wonder what harm could be caused in being open-minded about new and different ways to teach and learn. Still, in a tradition-laden environment like baseball or journalism for that matter, old ways die hard and new ones are notoriously slow to take root.

This Marshall-Williams situation seems to have resurfaced ongoing problems within the Cardinals organization. In the midst of sharing always-interesting details in his weekly chat on Wednesday, the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss said this in response to a question about Williams:

“Your information is correct and represents an obvious split between player development and the major-league staff. Marshall has been seeking audiences with numerous major-league organizations trying to regain a toe-hold in the industry. A former colleague at the P-D has been working on a tome with Marshall. The Williams signing caught the attention of many in the system and served as a reminder that pitching philosophies are becoming increasingly factionalized. The “classic mechanics” was tested on Adam Ottavino last year with less than positive results. Others in the system believe the concept has value. Minor league pitching instructor Brent Strom also has ideas considered unconventional by many. To the Kool-Aid drinkers, this has little meaning. But to those with eyes wide open, it’s an example of an organization operating on different pages writing different chapters.”

The first and last sentences really make it clear. Strauss, who has as frequent access to the major league staff as anyone not employed by the Cardinals, is clearly pointing out a continuing rift between the Tony La Russa – Dave Duncan staff and the administration of Luhnow.

Later, in response to another question, Strauss came back to the subject, pointing out there are dissenters in other places than just St. Louis.

“Some organizations install a vertical flow chart where major league philosophy is implemented throughout the system. That does not apply with the Cardinals. The defection and firing of a number of instructors since Walt Jocketty’s ouster underscores “new” organizational thinking. The Cardinals retain a number of solid instructors and coaches, especially on the pitching side. However, those instructors are not consulted in crafting philosophy.”

There is no reason to believe that this is an exception to the old line, “Where there’s smoke, there’s fire”. The most relevant question may be to wonder “What will be done about it?”

As many Cardinals fans know, La Russa is in his 14^th season managing in St. Louis and he and his coaches are not under contract for 2010 and beyond.

Luhnow has been with the organization for 5 ½ years with his first draft considered to be the Class of 2005. Of that group, five players have made the majors to date, including the top two picks reaching this season, Colby Rasmus and Tyler Greene. The others are Mitchell Boggs, Nick Stavinoha and Jaime Garcia, all first called up in 2008.

2006 has delivered Chris Perez, Shane Robinson and P.J. Walters to the majors so far. No players from 2007 or 2008 have arrived in St. Louis, though Jess Todd from the former year and Brett Wallace from last June may be closest. None are yet impact players, with Rasmus generally considered to have the best chance.

In a related vein, I must admit that I have received several notes from readers and bloggers alike in recent weeks questioning negative language from certain P-D writers that at times borders on condescending when referring to the farm system and those who cover it. For example, during Strauss’ Wednesday chat, he said the following in addition to the quote above:

“Depth is an issue here, despite what you may have heard about the burgeoning farm system from various media outlets and team mouthpieces.”

“It’s dangerous to drink Kool-Aid while reading your Baseball America.”

“There is NO support within the dugout for promoting Wallace any time soon. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to give the kid more than 50 at-bats at Memphis before pulling that trigger. To Wallace’s credit, he has no problem insisting his bat is major league-ready. Apparently he’s been reading a number of Cardinal-related Teen Beat-type blogs.”

At first blush, I admit it was disappointing to read such comments from a pro like Strauss. On the other hand, the “JSL (Live)” format allows Strauss to express himself in a more direct, new-school manner than his traditional articles can likely allow – not unlike a blogger blogging.

Perhaps most importantly, I come back to a point I made above about organizational contacts and orientation. Are these Strauss’ personal feelings, is he reporting the kinds of things he is hearing from the major league staff or some indistinguishable blend of the two?

I’ve discussed minor league coverage with Joe as recently as earlier this month, but didn’t come away with a definitive reading. In hindsight, does it really matter?

It is clear that the Post-Dispatch writers do not speak with one voice, which is certainly good. I still felt it necessary to point out to Joe that Baseball America’s Cardinals writer is one of his P-D peers and one of the fluffiest articles I can recall reading about the Cardinals farm system in the last few years recently ran in his own very newspaper.

Again, I want to be clear that this isn’t about Joe Strauss or any other writer personally. Look at their words and consider where they’re coming from. Everyone has an angle and a perspective.

As Strauss noted on Wednesday in response to another question about the 2010 Cardinals:

“Some of what happens will be dependent on who is managing the club.”

Certainly food for thought.

It reflects the reality of the changes needed to remain competitive in baseball today as accurately acknowledged in this statement:

“Unless you’re demographically matched to have a New York, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles payroll, smart baseball people have little choice but to prioritize the player-development system,” says the article.

The column then points out that it is now time for that Cardinals’ player development system to come through in terms of results, observing the arrival of top prospect Colby Rasmus, but properly noting the jury is still out on a number of others, including relievers Chris Perez and Jason Motte.

Makes sense to me, as every organization needs to rely on their minor leaguers to plug the inevitable gaps that present themselves during the long season, but then the tone turned personal, which I was less comfortable with.

“Rather than invest in more expensive starting pitching to reinforce the rotation’s depth, (Cardinals chairman Bill) DeWitt chose to invest in Luhnow,” the column concludes.

Vice President of Scouting and Player Development Jeff Luhnow is clearly the man in charge of the draft and the farm system and therefore is accountable. Yet, I don’t see this as being as much of a black-and-white, one-man issue as the column seems to paint it.

I can understand how the performance of first-time major league starter P.J. Walters in Chicago on Friday will reflect on the player development function, but is Luhnow really the one responsible for the Cardinals not re-signing then-free agent starter Braden Looper or comparable as a veteran sixth starter and safety net for Carpenter (putting aside whether that move would have even made sense for the organization)?

That point feels out of sync with an evaluation of the farm system – unless one doubts it is ready to produce. Though it is never said directly, it feels to me like that is the message being delivered.

The ongoing concern over the level of spending the Cardinals have made or not made for veteran players seems too often to permeate and polarize these kinds of discussions. In doing so, one can be left with the feeling it is believed there can be only one possible approach, rather than the more realistic blend of the two.

As it is, the Cardinals have committed 40 percent of their 2009 25-man player payroll to the five members of the rotation – $36.5 million of roughly $90 million. Carpenter represents the biggest slice at $14 million, followed by Kyle Lohse, re-signed for four-years, $41 million last fall and Joel Pineiro, making $7.5 million in the final year of his current contract.

Since it was acknowledged that the player development direction is the right route for the Cardinals to have followed, then why question the lack of signing of a free agent veteran, especially a sixth starting pitcher to cover what is currently expected to be a six-to-eight week outage for Carpenter?

And is that really one to pin on the farm director personally, anyway?

Apparently so. The column makes this assertion:

“DeWitt was assured by (GM John) Mozeliak and Luhnow that the Cardinals had attractive options at the minor-league level.”

That is the only time the responsibility of the club’s general manager, to whom Luhnow reports, is even hinted at.

The choice of words used to reference the farm system and its products were not positive. Three different times, variants of the same term – “hyped”, “hyperventilate” and “hype” – were used, not to mention “Luhnow’s precious Fabergé Eggs”.

This can reinforce the ongoing undercurrent of a lack of confidence, perhaps echoing from somewhere within the organization. Since the general approach is agreed with, the rub would seem to be in its implementation and maybe in those implementing it.

Isn’t the real issue whether or not the right players were drafted and groomed to contribute rather than wondering whether it might be better to have Braden Looper starting instead of P.J. Walters this weekend?

The success or failure of the Cardinals farm system will reflect the efforts of the players themselves supported by several hundred hard-working professionals, scouts, coaches, instructors and the like, all pulling together to try to identify the right prospects and mold them into legitimate major leaguers.

They are the ones who deserve whatever credit might be due, yet as always, if there is heat to be taken, it will be applied to the bosses.

So be it, but why should DeWitt, Mozeliak and Luhnow be separated in their treatment? I imagine they would be the first to say the organization’s directional commitment was made as one.

Since then, I have communicated with Jeff Luhnow, Cardinals Vice President of Amateur Scouting and Player Development and his leader in the Caribbean, Director of International Operations Moises Rodriguez regarding the signing.

Between the two executives and some additional research, we now can fill in more of the details of the Maekawa story.

Past interest

Luhnow notes this was at least the Cardinals’ second look at the pitcher. “We knew about him last year but we did not pursue him. He did sign a contract with another club (ed: the Washington Nationals) but his visa was held up and by the time he finally got that cleared up, it was too late,” he explained.

Returned to the Dominican

While I had noted in my first article that Maekawa had been pitching in Venezuela for Caribes, I missed the fact he had started this off-season in the Dominican. He returned there in 2008 after putting together a very nice 2-1 record with a 1.82 ERA in seven starts for the Gigantes del Cibao in 2007.

Back in Cibao this winter, Maekawa apparently hadn’t built up much goodwill from the previous winter. Rodriguez explains. “He had been pitching in the Dominican Republic this winter but was released after a few appearances.” Specifically, it was at the end of October after pitching in just two games.

Perhaps rusty from the long layoff, Maekawa only lasted 3 1/3 innings in two starts and was charged with nine earned runs. After his release, he came across Luhnow and the Cardinals contingent while they were on a scouting mission.

Asked the Cardinals for a job

Luhnow explains how it came about. “About a month ago I took a large group of scouts and player development people to the DR. While we were there, we ran into Maekawa and he said he was looking for a place to pitch. We had him come to our academy and face hitters.”

The Cardinals brain trust liked what they saw in Maekawa.

“His stuff was very good for a guy who hadn’t been pitching in a while. His fastball was 90 plus, he showed a sharp curve and a splitty with tumble. He has some deception in his delivery (the ball just seems to appear out of nowhere). The biggest issue with him has always been his control, but he put up some decent numbers in Japan,” Luhnow offered.

Note that over his 10-year career in Japan, Maekawa walked over five batters per nine innings. This winter, it has been almost 12 free passes per nine, so there is a lot of work to be done here.

Moved to Venezuela

Luhnow and the Cardinals signed Maekawa and sent him to work under Enrique Brito with Caribes in the Venezuelan League in late November.

“We decided to get him into some games in Venezuela for a month or so until it was time to head home and get his visa. We are hopeful there will be no hangups this year and he will be in Jupiter in time for minor league spring training,” Luhnow said.

Rodriguez is responsible for making that happen. “I’ve been involved on the administrative side (visa, contract signing, etc.). Maekawa just returned home to Japan to attend his visa appointment this week and will not return to Venezuela,” Rodriguez explained.

Back to Japan

Hopefully for the Cardinals, Maekawa’s visa hearing will go better than it did last off-season. Though he signed a deal with the Washington Nationals for the 2008 season, he was not allowed to fulfill the contract.

The Japan Times confirmed that Maekawa was fired by the Orix Blue Wave in 2007 as the result of the pitcher’s arrest in Osaka in 2006. He allegedly fled the scene of a car-bicycle accident when the police arrived and asked for his license. It had been suspended since another incident in 2002.

Maekawa originally joined the then-Kintetsu Buffaloes in 1997 as their first-round draft pick. In his ten years in Japan playing in both the Pacific and Central Leagues, he had a 31-45 career record with a 5.26 ERA in 149 games. During his final season there, 2006, Maekawa was 1-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 24 games.

Career stats

Following are Maekawa’s stats while in Japan and since.

	LG	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GO/AO	AVG
1997-2006	Jpn	31	45	5.26	149	95	16	1	9	609	628	385	356	48	345	417
2007 Winter
Gigantes	Dom	2	1	1.82	7	7				29.2	19		6		10	19
2008 Winter
Gigantes	Dom	0	2	24.30	2	2	0	0	0	3.1	6	9	9	1	6	3	2.00	0.400
Caribes	Ven	0	2	6.39	4	4	0	0	0	12.2	12	9	9	2	15	12	2.57	0.255

Opening or closing doors?

What with all the Cardinals-related excitement generated over Japan in the last few weeks simply because the general manager met with the agents of a couple of free agents from that country, some overly-optimistic fans look to Maekawa’s signing as a door-opener for the organization overseas.

I recall the same types of comments when the Cards signed their first Japanese player, So Taguchi, back in 2002. Of course, it didn’t happen. At least in that situation, the player was a model citizen and became a favorite in St. Louis.

A Japanese-American friend of mine familiar with the Maekawa situation made it clear that due to his off-field problems, public sentiment against Maekawa in Japan is very strong. In fact, while perhaps only rumors, at least one Washington Post writer believes Maekawa has unofficially been banned from the Japanese major leagues.

As a result, it is hard to believe any attention the Cardinals will receive in Japan as a result of the signing will be positive.

The future

Consider this move comparable to the signing of a six-year minor league veteran free agent to provide depth to the upper levels of the Cardinals’ system.

Maekawa’s past record indicates that he is the type of pitcher flexible enough to serve in most any role, whether as a starter, long reliever or left-handed specialist.

Luhnow basically confirmed that when he said, “We see Maekawa as competing for a rotation spot or bullpen spot in Memphis.”