As the 25-man opening day roster was set with the assignment of outfielder Joe Mather to Triple-A Memphis on Thursday, it means a total of three non-roster invitees (or NRIs) have made the team. They will be added to the club’s 40-man roster prior to Monday’s opening day game and the total on the 40-man will increase to 37 players in the process.

The three new additions are outfielder Colby Rasmus (pictured) and infielders David Freese and Joe Thurston. When they first take the field in Busch Stadium early in the week, the former two will be making their MLB introductions. Thurston, the “veteran” of the three, is 29 years old, but has just 66 career big league at-bats.

This is the highest number of NRIs to make the team in the last five years. Back in 2004, it was different as all three of the NRI additions that year had previous MLB experience, outfielder Ray Lankford, back for one last run, catcher Cody McKay, the first base coach’s son and second baseman-for-a-year Tony Womack, who like the others came to camp on a make-good minor league deal.

Since Tony La Russa arrived on the St. Louis scene in 1996, there was actually one year, 2003, when four NRIs came north with the Cardinals. Only one of the four, Kiko Calero, was a rookie though.

What makes the 2009 group so interesting to me is that the two farm NRI players made their way onto the team, Rasmus and Freese. This is the most in 11 years, tying the 1997 and 1998 teams for the largest quantity of such players in the La Russa era. Since Tony first joined the Cardinals, they have averaged only one such new NRI addition every two years.

	2009	Avg	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	1996
NRI	26	21	29	19	23	20	24	23	20	22	26	18	16	12	14
NRI made 25-man	3	2	2	0	2	2	3	4	1	3	2	0	3	2	2
First MLB action	2	0.5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	2	0

For the record, in 1997, the pair of newbies added to the roster were pitcher Matt Morris and Rule 5 outfielder Miguel Mejia. The next year, the two were pitchers Cliff Politte and Braden Looper. All except Mejia went on to have long major league careers. Looper remains active.

Now, here is the breakdown of all 26 NRIs in Cardinals camp this spring. This is the first spring in the La Russa years that as few as one MLB veteran pitchers or position players were brought into camp as NRIs that did not make the team. That was catcher Justin Knoedler, given no chance to make the MLB roster. Instead he was pegged for veteran insurance at Memphis, but ended up being released. Thurston was the other such veteran NRI and as noted, will be on the roster.

I don’t know what could be more of an indication of the organization’s turn toward youth.

2009	NRI made 25-man (3)	Veteran pitcher cut	Veteran hitter cut (1)	Rookie pitcher cut (14)	Rookie hitter cut (3)	Extra catchers (5)
	David Freese *	none	Justin Knoedler	Tyler Herron	Allen Craig	Bryan Anderson
	Joe Thurston			Clayton Mortensen	Jon Jay	Tony Cruz
	Colby Rasmus *			Ian Ostlund	Brett Wallace	Luis De La Cruz
	* 1st MLB action			Adam Ottavino		Steven Hill
				Fernando Salas		Matt Pagnozzi
				Francisco Samuel
				Jess Todd
				P.J. Walters
				Brad Furnish
				Katsuhiko Maekawa
				Shaun Garceau
				Justin Fiske
				Trey Hearne
				Hyang-Nam Choi

Supporting information

For the corresponding details on how all of the NRIs in camp each spring in recent years played out, reference my post from February 15, entitled “Cardinals non-roster invitees – an update”.

For the specifics on all first-year players to have worn the Cardinals uniform since 1996, check out the article, “Cardinals first-year players and rookies – 1996–2008”.

While other players made their debuts to start the season, the majority of them were already on the club’s 40-man roster. By default, all these players receive an “automatic” spring training invitation.

Organizations are reluctant to add players to the 40-man roster until absolutely necessary because there are limits on the number of years a player can be sent down and back up to the majors again without risk of losing the player.

In addition, once the player arrives in the majors, he begins to inch closer to becoming arbitration-eligible, therefore increasing his salary, as well as starting his journey toward free-agency at six years of major league service.

The details behind options (sending a player down) and outrighting (removing a player from the 40-man roster) are complicated. In a four-part series on Scout.com several years ago, I went into these subjects in great detail. Part one, which provides the basics, is free. (Parts two, three and four are subscriber content.)

On Friday, Colorado’s Brad Hawpe injured his hand when it was stepped on and spiked on a play at second base. (Note to Skip Schumaker: Please stop sliding head-first!) As a result, Hawpe, previously named a starting outfielder, bowed out of the World Baseball Classic.

Hawpe’s move was on the heels of Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore also suffering a injury that will keep him out of the WBC. With two of Davey Johnson’s starting outfielders out, do you suppose Ryan Ludwick regrets his decision to not join Team USA because he was not guaranteed a starting role?

Villone joins Mets

On Saturday, free agent left-handed reliever Ron Villone signed a minor league deal with a spring training invite from the New York Mets. Was it just coincidence the contract was announced the day after the Cardinals spanked the Mets staff for one run per inning?

It is a deal just like he signed with the Cardinals last spring. To make the Mets, Villone may require another break like he received last spring when Tyler Johnson couldn’t answer the bell.

Mulder still looking

With the Villone signing, only Mark Mulder remains unsigned from the group of six Cardinals free agent pitchers. The list included Braden Looper (Milwaukee), Jason Isringhausen (Tampa Bay), Russ Springer (Oakland), Randy Flores (Colorado), and Tyler Johnson (Seattle).

In January, ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that Mulder could be a “hidden gem” among this year’s crop of free agents. Apparently the cost of diamonds is depressed as Mulder is still jobless. Returning to his initial club of Oakland is rumored once the lefty actually throws for scouts.

Choi gets NRI

A repeat of the embarrassing situation that resulted when Tony La Russa publicly complained about not having enough arms in camp to the point he floated the idea of borrowing pitchers from his team’s opponent was apparently averted when Hyang-Nam Choi was added to major league spring training.

The 37-year-old Korean was signed just last month. He previously pitched in the minors for Cleveland in 2006.

I’ve kept my Cardinals NRI list up to date, which notes seven additional pitchers since the original rosters were announced. With that, there are now 61 players in camp, which is just one away from the team’s average from 1996 through 2008.

Mortensen’s MRI was negative

Choi’s NRI was due to Clayton Mortensen’s MRI. OK, not exactly, but the former supplemental first rounder is on the sidelines indefinitely due to elbow discomfort. Choi was added to offer another arm.

Harris salutes Cards

13^th round draft pick Mitch Harris, a right-handed pitcher from Navy, signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals on Saturday. Currently on active duty and committed to four more years of the same, Harris and the Cardinals have to hope the Navy changes their policy sooner. Otherwise, Harris will have quite the challenge as a pushing-30 year old first-time professional.

17 “agree to terms”

The Cardinals “came to terms” on 2009 contracts with 17 players with less than three years of MLB service time. These players technically can negotiate, but realistically were obligated to take what was offered as long as they receive the major league minimum. That will change when they become arbitration eligible in a year or more down the road.

In a subscriber-only article at Scout.com on Saturday, I listed the service time of all 17 and forecasted when each will become arbitration eligible.

Spring training schedule update

On Saturday, I updated the master Cardinals spring training radio and television schedule to include additional XM satellite radio broadcasts. Keep checking back there all month long as more games are added to Gameday audio, XM and MLB.TV.

My opening day roster predictions

I went on record last week at Scout.com with my forecast for the opening day Cardinals roster (subscription required). Rather than list all 25, here are the players I have on the outside looking in:

Pitchers: Boggs, Hawskworth, Manning, Motte, Ostlund (NRI), Scherer

Infielders: T. Greene, Hoffpauir, Wallace (NRI)

Outfielders: Barton, Stavinoha, Rasmus (NRI)

Photo day

I’ve posted the results of 2009 photo day for the Cardinals pitchers/catchers and position players. If you’re not a Scout.com subscriber, you can still access the new photos from each individual player profile page.

Kennedy second-guessing

Many fans and columnists are confused by the decision and/or the timing of the release of second baseman Adam Kennedy by the Cardinals. I am not among them.

Tony La Russa apparently wanted Kennedy gone since before the holidays as he was concerned about a potential disruption in camp, with a competition coming for the second base job. Over the winter, the organization continued to try to get some value for the player, which makes sense given they owe him $4 million on the third and final year of his current contract. But with spring training just a week away, the club finally had to cut bait. Both views seem reasonable to me.

Kennedy has a good glove, but he is not alone in that. His offense is considerably below MLB average and for that reason, I am not sad to see him go. My only wish is that the Cardinals could have gotten something from Kennedy very early in the off-season. Before Arizona signed Felipe Lopez, there were rumors they were interested in Kennedy. Had that deal been done, perhaps either Lopez or Aaron Miles would still be Cardinals.

As I said yesterday, considering where things are now, let the kids fight it out during camp and if no one emerges, make a move late in March.

Weaver hanging on

Former Cardinals pitcher Jeff Weaver signed a minor league deal to return to the Dodgers, his home in 2004 and 2005. The contract is reportedly worth $500,000 if he makes the team. The 33-year-old right-hander split his time between Triple-A clubs for Milwaukee and Cleveland last summer, posting an ERA over six.

Most fans know the story of how the Cards rescued the former Tiger and Yankee off the Angels’ scrap heap after the latter club bumped Jeff in favor of his brother Jered. While Jeff Weaver went just 5-4, 5.18 to end the 2006 season for the Cards, he came up big in the post-season, going 3-2, 2.43 and winning the final game of the World Series.

As a result, he received an offer to return to St. Louis for 2007, but instead agent Scott Boras guided Weaver to Seattle, where a large mushroom cloud was soon sighted. It doesn’t seem to me that Boras cares about the fact that the most money isn’t always the best answer.

Looper to slide with Bernie Brewer

After being seemingly everyone’s second choice all winter, former Cardinals reliever-turned-starter Braden Looper is joining the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers rotation, joining former teammate Jeff Suppan.

The deal is reportedly a most reasonable one for the club, at one year, $4.75 million with a mutual option for 2010. Looper can choose to return to free agency after this coming season, giving him a chance to get back in the market if it improves. If Milwaukee declines the 2010 option and Looper accepts, he’ll be bought out for a lower amount. Looper’s 2010 salary has not been disclosed nor whether any incentives exist in the contract.

Somewhere, likely en route to spring training, Kyle Lohse is grinning again. Here’s hoping (again, still) that Chris Carpenter is going to be ok.

Pujols still standing behind his trainer

As the Alex Rodriguez furor continues, I ran across a very small Albert Pujols news item. The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman is hosting a hitting clinic this Thursday in the Kansas City area.

The site is a place called Millhouse AEP, an athletic training center focusing on strength and conditioning. Its owner is Chris Mihlfeld, also known as Pujols’ personal trainer and a friend of the star since his time at Maple Woods Community College ten years ago.

It is great to see that Albert is still standing behind his friend, the victim of a most unfortunate and unwarranted attack on his reputation back in 2006 that also attempted to wrongly smear Pujols’ name.

The website Deadspin published and later was forced to retract an unfounded accusation that Mihlfeld supplied PEDs to former pitcher Jason Grimsley. The photo in the article and much of the bad press that followed was directed at Pujols, an entirely innocent third party, but obviously a much bigger name to drag through the mud.

And folks wonder why mainstreamers like Bob Costas come out against internet writers for lack of accountability. (OK, so Costas’ comments overall were pretty ridiculous, but reports like the Mihlfeld one from sites that feature frathouse-type humor to try to appear edgy help no one that cares about credibility.)

Nick the backstop

In case you missed it, add one more player to the round about position changes underway in Cardinals spring training camp. The Post-Dispatch reported that GM John Mozeliak has announced that outfielder Nick Stavinoha is undergoing a position move to catcher.

Joe Strauss notes that the strong and stocky-built 26-year-old was an all-state catcher in high school in Houston. However, 2002 was a long time ago and there is a huge gap between high school and the major leagues.

Yet in the outfield, Stavinoha has not been mentioned among the top tier of candidates for a major league berth in 2009. He was likely destined for a return to Memphis, where outfield at-bats will be a fought-for commodity. Though he punished the ball in Triple-A last season, Stavinoha’s 57 at-bat MLB debut yielded a very soft .193/.217/.211 line.

Flores hopes for health, humidor

Jettisoned Cards left-handed reliever Randy Flores signed a one-year, $600,000 contract to return to his 2002 club, the Colorado Rockies. Coming off shoulder surgery, it is unclear when Flores will actually be ready to pitch. He has an out in his contract that he can exercise by April 30 if he is not in the majors.

Ankiel, Boras heading toward arbitration

I thought I had covered this ad nauseum, but the Cardinals and Rick Ankiel, represented by agent Scott Boras, are meeting Thursday in Phoenix to present their cases to a three-person panel of arbiters. The subject is whether Ankiel’s 2009 salary should be $2.35 million or $3.3 million.

Expect the decision to be made public on Friday. To this point, the players and clubs are 1-1 this winter, with Tampa Bay defeating catcher Dioner Navarro while pitcher Shawn Hill won his case against the Washington Nationals.

Cards outfielder Ryan Ludwick’s hearing is this coming Tuesday, the 17^th.

Update: The Post-Dispatch identified local attorney Hal Wellford as the individual assisting Assistant GM John Abbamondi in presenting the Cardinals case. Here is a link to Wellford’s resume.

Three more spring invites

The Cards have invited three more pitchers to their big league camp, according to Dustin Mattison at Whiteyball.com. Left-handers Brad Furnish and Katsuhiko Maekawa plus right-hander Shaun Garceau get to experience the excitement of their first major league spring training with the Cardinals, but shouldn’t plan on staying long.

Garceau and Furnish will be Rule 5-eligible this winter if not added to the 40-man roster. With so many in a similar situation, that is far from assured. The Japanese native Maekawa is a recent signee with a checkered past, both on and off the field.

Venezuelan winter update

Over at Cardinals Best News Links, Josh Jones is continuing his Cardinals winter league recaps with the prospects that competed in Venezuelan League this winter.

Bo Hart for Valentine’s Day

Two Bo Hart references here in as many days. Let’s get camp underway!

In a February 14-themed feature, a Chicago writer recapped the former Cardinals second baseman’s 2008 season in independent ball.

2008 season summary video

MLB.com has posted a free three-and-a-half minute video summary of the 2008 Cardinals season. It is worth a quick watch as a refresher, though of course, the negatives are glossed over as having been injury-driven.

The other day, I gave a nod to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle as the result of an article he wrote for the Sporting News in which he advised not to count out the 2009 Cardinals. I did that, overlooking his fearless prediction that “The Cardinals might win 90 games or lose 90.” Way to stick your neck out, Richard.

I spoke too soon as Justice is apparently writing a series of similar articles, just substituting the team name. His latest: “Don’t count Astros out in spring training”. This despite the fact he clearly stated that Houston “gotten worse” this season in the earlier article.

Let’s see. Worse than third place means what? Contention? Guess he has to appease the hometown readers.

It is certainly the right time of year to accurately suggest that no team is out of it. Keeps all the bases well-covered that way, I imagine. I am guessing Justice is having a big stack of waffles for breakfast this Sunday morning.

Caribbean Series ends

Congratulations to the Aragua Tigres of Venezuela for winning the 2009 Caribbean Series with a 5-1 record. The Mexican club, the Mazatlan Venados, finished in second at 3-3.

The Tigres actually clinched with a victory over Mexico on Friday, making Saturday’s game meaningless. Venezuela’s Brad Knox, a free agent formerly from the Oakland system, got the Saturday nod. Knox, a starter I mentioned over on Scout.com on Friday (subscription required), was hammered for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings. He had tossed a no-hitter for 6 1/3 innings his first time out.

The main pitcher I profiled there, Edgar Gonzalez, previously a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks, is rumored to be close to signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Too bad if that happens, as he would have been an intriguing add for the Cardinals.

Cards Mexican Pacific League recap

Also make sure you hop on over to Cardinals Best News Links to check out Josh Jones’ summaries of winter league action by Cardinals players past and present. Just posted was a recap of the Mexican Pacific League season.

Wolf signs with Dodgers

Arguably the top left-hander on the market, Randy Wolf, signed a one-year, $5 million deal with Joe Torre’s Los Angeles Dodgers. That was very bad news for still-free agent Braden Looper, widely considered to have been the Dodgers’ second choice.

Looper seems destined to be a second choice kind of guy. Most Cardinals observers would admit that the difference between Looper, who was sent packing, and Kyle Lohse, who was offered four years and $41 million to stay, was not that huge.

Now, it is Looper who will likely have to accept a circa 2008 Lohse-ian deal someplace. (Lohse did not have a home this time last year, signing a cut-rate one-year contract with a base of $4.25 million with the Cardinals in mid-March.)

Not that the Cardinals were serious suitors, but one part of me is relieved that Wolf did not sign with St. Louis. I don’t think I could survive an entire season listening to Hungo pronounce the pitcher’s name as “woof”.

Torre and A-Fraud

Speaking of Torre, the timing of the release of his new book, “The Yankee Years”, last Tuesday was impeccable. All week, the furor was at a fever pitch over Torre supposedly savaging his old club, while the grandfatherly skipper hit the talk show circuit carefully explaining his intent. A great way to sell books. One controversial reference was to “A-Fraud”, though not necessarily attributed as a direct Torre quote.

Seems the A-Rod steroid allegations have knocked any lingering rage at Torre off the back page of the New York tabloids while reinforcing the unfortunate nickname of the embattled third baseman.

MLB Network – the other side

One of the places where Torre was most visible was the fledgling MLB Network. His co-author of the book, Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, already works there. A great way to sell books. Hmmm.

Yet, the most visible face there has instantly become Bob Costas, who left behind his cable deal with HBO to move over to the MLB Network, also just last week. His first interviews were with Torre and Verducci.

Costas, who has become sports’ answer to Dick Clark, America’s oldest teenager, does have a reputation that enables him to ask at least marginally tough questions, something that is badly needed at MLB Network.

While I like their programming, their four-person roundtables are terribly boring, with four yes-people all agreeing on how good such-and-such signing was. In all fairness, they can hardly be critical of teams and of MLB while ripping their bosses in the process. I guess it was unrealistic to hope the Network would be any more hard-hitting in their coverage than MLB.com, the flagship mouthpiece for the empire.

It must be frustrating for the writers and broadcasters, who are likely intelligent, opinionated people, to be unable to fully speak their minds. Heck, when MLB employees blog, they do it via a company-run blog site. How independent can that be? Big brother is always watching.

It is clearly high-stakes big business for MLB. I wonder if there will be editorial pressure to downplay the new A-Rod steroids scandal on MLB Network. I surely hope not, but have to wonder. Biting the hand that feeds you rarely turns out well.

Cookie WHIPped

Speaking of MLB Network, I spent much of my evenings last week watching the Caribbean Series there. One of the rotating color men used daily was former MLB player and manager Cookie Rojas.

He is clearly old school. When an ESPN graphic popped up the Venezuelan club’s ERA and WHIP, Cookie explained WHIP as hitting with runners in scoring position. Ouch!

Old school, new school contention remains

Since it is time for the fresh start of the new season, a logical column for the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss to write is the annual “Tony La Russa is re-energized” tome.

Buried in it was La Russa’s not-so-subtle reminder that he is still not totally in synch with the new wave Cardinals organization.

“I believe analysis from a computer is useful but should be secondary to what you observe. That may not be the opinion of the people in charge,” La Russa told Strauss.

It’s not a news flash, as La Russa has made similar comments in the past, but it is discouraging to see the organizational tension remains at a level such that the manager feels the ongoing need to discuss it publicly.

Congrats to Worrell

Former Cardinals reliever Todd Worrell (pictured) was among the 14 inductees into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame on Saturday night in Springfield.

The now-49-year-old was a standout as a closer and set-up man for the Cardinals from 1985 through 1992 and has given back as a former player. An excellent choice.

DiFelice retires

Former Cardinals catcher Mike DiFelice (1996-97, 2002) has retired as an active player to manage the Mets’ rookie team in Kingsport, TN. The K-Mets are an Appalachian League adversary of the Johnson City Cardinals.

The 39-year-old DiFelice spent most of 2008 in Triple-A but did get a final cup of coffee (with dessert?) with the AL champion Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He did not appear in the post-season.

Lefty swapping

The same article linked to above notes the Rays are signing Brian Shouse, apparently to replace now-Cardinal Trever Miller for the left side of their pen. It will be interesting to see which club turns out to have made the best decision. To say I am nervous about the Cardinals’ 2009 relief lefties is an understatement.

First arbitration case decided

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Shawn Hill won his salary arbitration case and will receive $775,000, instead of the $500,000 the team was offering. For the Cardinals, Rick Ankiel is up first, this coming Thursday, with Ryan Ludwick scheduled the Tuesday following, on the 17^th.

Gorgen shoulder surgery good news

On Saturday, I had a long phone conversation with right-handed pitching prospect Scott Gorgen. He has a most interesting story about the evolution of his shoulder discomfort through surgery last week. The news is good – out eight weeks instead of the entire season. It is subscriber-only content, but worth the listen if you are a member.

Remember that you’ll continue to see several feature articles each week from me at Scout.com, so make sure you check there regularly, too.

Cubs lead Cards in Koreans, 4-1

Recently, MLB.com ran a feature about the Chicago Cubs’ increase in worldwide scouting, noting the club has invited three young Korean prospects to minor league camp along with another player from that country that was also under contract last season.

The Cardinals signed a Korean of their own last week, Hyang-Nam Choi, assigned to Memphis and also heading to minor league spring training. The 37-year-old cannot be considered a youth any more, however.

Last spring, the Cards had another Korean pitcher in minor league camp, Jai Chul Chung. The then-25 year old stayed around into extended spring training, but did not make a team.

The term “walk year” is commonly defined as the final season of a player’s contract prior to when he becomes free agent eligible. The view is that the player can walk away from his current team and ostensibly join a new, higher-paying one – if the results are there.

Just prior to training camp and before the very first injury is reported is the time of the year when optimism is at its peak – and when “walk years” get tossed around as a potential reason for players to improve their performance.

Reporting on a recent discussion with St. Louis Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan the other day, the Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz turned the phrase in question when referring to number five-by-a-thread starting pitcher Joel Pineiro (pictured).

“Duncan didn’t say this, but I will: remember, Pineiro is pitching for a new contract. He’s in his walk-year of a two year deal,” Miklasz offered.

After letting that sink in a bit, I went looking for some fact-or-fiction justification addressing walk years, sort of like I do whenever my brother-in-law emails me another idiotic urban legend that he thinks is real – you know, like the old yarn about earthworms in McDonalds hamburger meat.

I did find a 2003 study at ESPN, written by an author of Baseball Prospectus. Since it was a BP author after all, he couldn’t resist using their PECOTA predictions instead of actual results. To top it off, he compared players to other players instead of to themselves over a single year.

Other external factors like injury, role changes, schedule differences and Father Time are acknowledged as variables that cannot be properly accounted for, a valid point for any method used, in my opinion.

The headline of that story: ‘Hitters love the ‘walk year’. It’s conclusion:

“… this quick statistical glance does indicate that there might well be something to the motivational effect of the walk year, at least for hitters.”

Hardly conclusive, but I was amused by the most-valid point made that at its essence, hopes of walk year success is fueled by a basic belief that if only the player tried harder, he would perform better. Sort of like the old Janis Joplin tune, “Try Just a Little Bit Harder”, which ironically popped up on my satellite radio receiver just as I was typing this.

Instead of hope, I’d like to grab onto something more meaty, or should I say, substantial.

What I am going to do here is compare the stats of former Cardinals players for the duration of their Cardinals career prior to their walk year with their walk year itself. I strongly believe that for relevance, a player needs to be compared to himself, not to a body of other players as in the ESPN study.

My ground rules are simple: The player had to have been a Cardinal for at least three seasons, had a multi-year contract and departed via free agency, as opposed to trade, release or retirement. The idea behind three years is to have at least two years of results prior to the walk year. A multi-year deal is required to ensure not every comparison year was a walk year, too.

The Cardinals saw 12 such walk year players depart the organization in the last six years.

For pitcher stats, I selected ERA+ as the measurement, which takes into account performance relative to the league each season. For the hitters, I used OPS+ for the same reason.

I am showing each player’s St. Louis high- and low-water marks but am using the average ERA+ or OPS+ to compare against each player’s walk season. The bar isn’t that high, in my opinion. All the player has to do is post an above-average year. Either the walk season is higher than his previous average with the club or it isn’t.

	walk year	walk ERA+/OPS+	average	previous year	StL high	StL low
Jason Isringhausen	2008	75	164	177	198	75
Braden Looper	2008	102	107	89	125	94
Mark Mulder	2008	39	71	36	116	36
David Eckstein	2007	93	90	81	99	81
Jason Marquis	2006	74	109	102	115	74
Jeff Suppan	2006	108	111	119	119	103
Matt Morris	2005	103	126	90	167	90
Mike Matheny	2004	65	67	79	79	51
Edgar Renteria	2004	88	99	130	139	77
Woody Williams	2004	102	151	106	189	102
Steve Kline	2004	239	155	108	240	108
Fernando Vina	2003	82	92	79	100	79

The story is pretty compelling.

The results of ten of the 12 players or 83% DECLINED in their walk year over their previous years’ Cardinals average. Only two players, David Eckstein in 2007 and Steve Kline in 2004, improved in their final season.

Lowering the criteria to simply improving in one year – in the walk year compared to the previous single season – delivers slightly better results. In that case, six of the 12 or 50% showed improvement in their final season over their second-to-last with St. Louis.

The six improvers are Braden Looper (2008), Mark Mulder (2008), Eckstein (2007), Matt Morris (2005), Kline (2004) and Fernando Vina (2003).

However, Mulder’s numbers were so bad in both years (39 vs. 36 ERA+) that calling his 2008 season a step up over his 2007 would be a cruel joke. Putting him aside would drop the walk year-to-previous year success rate to 5-of-11 or 45%.

Further, three of the 12 walk year performances represented the player’s absolutely WORST year as a Cardinal. They include Jason Isringhausen (2008), Jason Marquis (2006) and Woody Williams (2004).

On the other hand, not a single one of the dozen players had their BEST year in St. Louis during their final season there.

Conclusion: You can pick your favorite reason as to why, but the data has spoken. Considering the most recent six years at least, expecting walk year improvement for impending St. Louis Cardinals free agents, whether pitchers or hitters, is a low odds proposition at best.

Sorry, Joel, but it looks like there is a very good reason Duncan didn’t say it.

Addendum: After publishing, I recalled that Jim Edmonds was in his walk year in 2006, just before then-GM Walt Jocketty surprised both the player and the Cardinal Nation by ill-advisedly offering Jimmy two more years. As we know, the Cards ate $2 million just to get out of year two.

	walk year	walk ERA+/OPS+	average	previous year	StL high	StL low
Jim Edmonds	2006	110	153	137	170	110

Anyway, Edmonds just reinforces the conclusion already made, as his 2006 “walk year” was his worst as a Cardinal up to that point. (He posted an OPS+ of 88 in his final St. Louis season, 2007.)

There may have been other mid-Cardinals career walk years that I missed here, but I think the point has been adequately made.

You heard it here first. The dates for the arbitration hearings for St. Louis Cardinals outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick have been set. In a schedule that only MLB could devise, the two hearings will be held in Phoenix five days apart – on February 12 (Ankiel) and February 17 (Ludwick).

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on February 12 happening while the 17^th would be made unnecessary by a pre-hearing agreement with Ludwick. Whether the latter would be a simple one-year deal or a multi-year contract is unclear.

The last arbitration hearing the Cardinals actually had, back in 1999, they defeated agent Scott Boras on behalf of pitcher Darren Oliver. This time, Boras represents Ankiel, the pitcher-turned outfielder. The two sides come in separated by almost $1 million in their respective views of the player’s 2009 value.

More information from my previous reports here and here. (Also be sure to read the comments below the posts.)

Korean is day-to-day, just like the rest

Regarding the contract of Hyang-Nam Choi, the 37- (or 38) year-old reliever from Korea signed by the Cardinals (reports vary on his exact age), a Korean news source reported the deal is a month-to-month agreement, somehow implying out-of-the-ordinary terms that put the import on less-firm ground than his minor league counterparts.

Not so.

Choi is signed to a standard one-year Memphis contract, and will be in minor league camp when it opens on Monday, March 9. The “monthly” aspect is standard for all minor league contracts, in that players are paid a monthly amount, rather than having it expressed as an annual salary.

Apparently the Korean writer was unfamiliar with that. That’s ok, as many of us Americans are confused by Korean names. Choi is the player’s family name followed by his given name, listed as Choi Hyang-nam in Korean sources.

Think Hee-Seop Choi, the then-Dodgers Korean first baseman whose 2005 collision with Scott Rolen‘s shoulder changed everything. On the other hand, let’s not think about that after all.

Also, Choi the pitcher has been added to my Cardinals roster matrix as its 307^th player.

Rosenthal: Cards out of money

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had this sobering comment about the Cardinals in a Wednesday column.

“Club officials are telling agents that they are out of money, a stunning development considering that the team will host the All-Star Game this season.”

The reporter speculates that ticket sales and revenues are not being boosted by the presence of the All-Star Game and that the Cards are not in the hunt for free agent Braden Looper, or apparently anyone else that requires a major league salary.

I haven’t revisited the math of the Cardinals total payroll with a set roster, but it would seem to be somewhere in the low $90 millions, which could be as much as a 10% reduction from 2008. Of course, as noted above, Ankiel’s and Ludwick’s salaries could swing the 2009 total by as much as $2.4 million one way or the other.

Gorgen’s shoulder surgery?

Via a post on a social networking site (nothing seems to be private anymore), our Scout.com Cardinals Minor League Rookie Pitcher of the Year with Batavia last season, Scott Gorgen, mentioned recently that he required surgery on his shoulder. I have not yet been able to reach the 22-year-old right-hander to confirm this but I will post if so.

Since the Cardinals have not yet received their signed HIPAA waiver forms which enable them to discuss 2009 player injuries, the organization is unable to comment publicly at this time.

Houston Justice served

In case you missed this good news story the other day, Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle, writing for the Sporting News, offers a positive spin on the 2009 Cardinals. It is nice to see from a writer from an opposing city, especially considering some of the biased junk that has come out of Chicago in recent years.

Justice should have a good eye for bad situations as the Astros have decimated their once-strong farm system both in staff and players and despite finishing just ahead of the Cardinals last year, are an organization seemingly trending in the wrong direction.

Albert Pujols arrived in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic on Wednesday, according to ESPN Deportes. His primary mission is to deliver over a thousand beds and other supplies aimed at benefiting disadvantaged people in his homeland. The linked to report also notes Albert will train with those World Baseball Classic players present in the country and will play as long as his elbow is ok. No mention was made of the earlier insurance problem that threatened to keep him sidelined.

Albert heats up his “Sign Manny” initiative

Meeting with the press while in the Dominican, Pujols returned to a subject that is obviously close to his heart – the Cardinals signing free agent outfielder Manny Ramirez. Albert broached the same subject earlier in the winter as well, back in November.

This time, Albert said he is speaking with Manny every three days and passed the phone number of the Scott Boras client on to manager Tony La Russa. Pujols addressed the inherent budgetary challenges by suggesting the support of St. Louis fans could be worth a discount.

Hold onto that thought for a minute.

Mo says “no Manny”

It was only Wednesday when the LA Times published a very short conversation with Cards GM John Mozeliak. Mo was asked if the Cardinals are a mystery bidder for ManRam.

“The answer is no,” Mozeliak told the paper.

Not a lot of wiggle room in that.

Déjà vu, Albert

Please read the following excerpt.

Albert Pujols wants a long-term contract from the St. Louis Cardinals, and he doesn’t plan to give them a bargain.

“What do you mean?” Pujols said Sunday at the team’s annual winter fanfest. “This is business. There’s no break here.

“You try to get what you deserve and that’s what I want. I’ve taken care of my business in the field the last three years and hopefully I get treated respectfully, that’s all I ask for.”

You read about that already, right? If the resulting message board anxiety could have been measured, a large segment of the Cardinal Nation has already been hospitalized and Albert is in the midst of looking for new houses in New York or Los Angeles, or maybe both!

The problem is that the above quote, while 100% real, is NOT from this Winter Warm-up. It is from January, 2004, prior to Albert’s current seven-year deal.

My advice to those with their undies in a bunch over the prospect of a Pujols free agency in three years, is to calm down, please!

Now, back to Manny. Albert seems to have the same disease that strikes fans all over baseball – the tendency to want to spend other peoples’ money.

If Albert says he won’t take a hometown discount with his own team, how can he expect someone that has never even played there to do so?

Right. It’s all just talk, so take it for what it is worth.

Bissinger on Pujols

Article from ESPN the Magazine on El Hombre with a 2005 perspective, yet a good reminder of the greatness of Albert.

Amaury the Hunter

Even as the outfielder was not among those invited to major league spring training this year after scoring an invite in 2008, Amaury Marti is having a solid winter playing for Licey in the Dominican Republic. He and his Tiger teammates should be on the tube starting next Monday as the MLB Network covers the Caribbean Series from Mexico. (Check out daily reports on the Series on Cardinals Best News Links.)

A recent article from the Dominican paper Listin Diario does not beat around the bush about Marti’s age, calling him the same 34 years old at which he was listed in Cuba. The Cardinals, at least publicly, still have their collective heads in the sand, asserting Marti is 30.

One other tidbit is that the well-traveled outfielder acquired a nickname this past summer while playing in Mexico – “El Cazador” or “The Hunter”.

So it shall be!

La Russa booking

In news of the weird, Tony La Russa will be autographing phone books this Saturday afternoon in Concord, CA. Turns out, TLR and one of his daughters are featured on the cover of the local phone directory, honest!

Try framing that!

The good news is that La Russa is working cheaply, with signatures just $10 a pop, all for charity of course. That is just a third of what it took for his autograph at Winter Warm-up.

Benson only “so-so”

The “most consistent interest” in 34-year-old Kris Benson is from the Dodgers, Rangers and Cardinals, says Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal’s sources. Benson is trying to come back from rotator cuff surgery two years ago. According to the report, Benson looks only “so-so” in his throwing sessions. “Better than expected,” an MLB exec said, “but not great.”

Pass. Please.

Springer signs for perhaps a small raise

Former Cardinals reliever Russ Springer signed a one-year deal with the Oakland A’s for $3.3 million with another $0.3 million in incentives. That could take his 2009 take just slightly over his $3.5 million salary with the Cards in 2008. The 40-year-old moved to his eighth team in his 16^th season because St. Louis had no room for him in 2009.

Best of luck to Springer, a genuine nice guy.

Izzy still waiting

With the signing of former Arizona closer Brandon Lyon by the Detroit Tigers, ex-Cards closer Jason Isringhausen may have lost his ideal landing location for 2009. The Detroit Free Press had been actively campaigning for Izzy, obviously to no avail.

Few if any other clubs have open closer jobs without candidates already in house. Early in the month, there were supposedly six teams interested in Izzy, but as of now, he is still unemployed.

Looper back on O’s plate

With Baltimore already having signed ex-Cards shortstop Cesar Izturis, they are getting back around to considering starting pitcher Braden Looper. They were linked with the free agent earlier in the winter, but that time, interest was not confirmed.

Looks to me like it could be a good fit. (The Dodgers are also said to have interest.)

A Giant Thrill

Former Cardinals first baseman Will Clark has returned to his old club, the San Francisco Giants, as a special assistant. After coaching with the Cardinals in spring training three years ago, Clark spent the last two with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

A Mac Holliday

Almost Cardinal and now Oakland A’s outfielder Matt Holliday not only credits disgraced ex-Cardinals slugger Mark McGwire for helping him develop his power, but he actually moved to Southern California this off-season specifically to work out with Big Mac.

How’s that for tight?

Boras comes up in ‘roids talk

Admitted steroids supplier to baseball players Kirk Radomski spoke to ESPN. Among his comments is one that money for PEDs on behalf of Kevin Brown allegedly arrived in an envelope from agent Scott Boras’ office. Boras denied involvement, of course.

Boras unethical to clients

A very interesting lawyerly-focused treatise on Boras’ ethics with the conclusion that his clients are the ones that suffer.

Like so many of the off-season concerns expressed recently, they aren’t new. Yet over time, the facts seem to support the view that the Cardinals have done a pretty good job of letting players leave before they hit bottom.

The jury will be out for some time as to the wisdom of any of the recent departures including Miles’ case, the one that currently seems to be most anger-causing.

In the meantime, I thought I would put together a Cardinals “Let ‘em Go” Team from this decade, just to remind us all that the guys in charge of the team generally do seem to know what they are doing.

To qualify for this team, the Cardinals player had to leave St. Louis as a free agent since 2000 and sign a subsequent contract with a new organization. In some cases, the Cardinals may have been in the bidding, but at some point, another club bested their offer. Other times, St. Louis may never have made a serious bid for the player to return. In selecting players, strong preference was given to players that turned out to be overpaid and underperforming in their new locales.

With the late addition of first baseman John Mabry, I was able to build a full lineup, including five starting pitchers and a reliever throwing from each side. Given the middle infield churn in recent years, it wasn’t surprising that five of them are on the team. Outfield was the biggest challenge to fill, but ultimately, three examples could be found.

While most of these moves occurred on the watch of former GM Walt Jocketty, Mozeliak was previously his top assistant and seems to have adopted a similar stance in such matters.

I’ve been around long enough to remember each one of the situations listed below and recall at least some considerable segment of the Cardinal Nation complaining about the team’s loss every single time. Yet the reality is that it is a necessary part of the game.

+ denotes having played with multiple clubs since leaving the Cardinals

* third and final stint with St. Louis

In many cases, the big savings was in money not spent. Matt Morris (pictured – $27 million) and Edgar Renteria ($40 million) are good examples of this.

For other ex-Cards, the savings came in the form of negatives avoided as the player’s results on the field dropped off badly upon leaving St. Louis. For example, among the starting pitchers, only Jason Marquis had an above-.500 record after leaving the Cards and he was recently booted out of the Cubs rotation before being shipped to pitching purgatory, otherwise known as Colorado. The Cubs also paid the Rox $875,000 to take him.

Other benefits were gained down the line in players received via compensatory draft picks. For example, the reason Chris Perez is the favorite to become the Cardinals closer is because the team received a supplemental pick when Morris signed with the San Francisco Giants. Even better is top prospect Colby Rasmus, selected with Boston’s first-round pick in 2005 forfeited when the Sox signed Renteria.

Finally, some gains were achieved in roster savings such as when popular outfield reserve So Taguchi departed, making room for a younger, more talented player such as Skip Schumaker.

Not all the divorces were amicable, as several of the departing players grumbled about having been left in limbo by the organization. In other words, their feelings were hurt over not being told their services were no longer required as the club evaluated alternatives.

Still, with the full benefit of hindsight, when looking at the end results is there a single player on this list that the Cardinals should have kept?

So rather than complain about Miles and the other 2008 Cardinals that are gone for 2009, at least wait until next season is over to pass judgment.

First up was the next chapter in the continuing and heartwarming Mark Mulder feel-good story, clearly designed to try to drum up a market for a pitcher that hasn’t been able to pitch effectively for at least the last two years.

More details were “leaked” about the current nature of Mulder’s infamous arm slot – not as high as when he was dominant, but allegedly higher than with St. Louis this past season. The spices were emotional comments from Mulder himself, relayed by his helpful agent Gregg Clifton and new Brewers mamager Ken Macha.

While this is at least the third “Mulder is doing great” piece in recent weeks, no one has apparently seen him actually throw a baseball. At this point, the only team rumored to potentially have interest is Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds, which on one hand would be a curious destination, but on the other, quite fitting in a perverse sort of way. Yet, no teams have been named that actually admit tendering Mulder an offer.

As a result, there is more work for Clifton ahead. Expect the next installment of the Mulder propaganda in a couple of weeks. Feel free to ignore it, if you are so inclined.

Jim Edmonds, who is not being asked back to the Chicago Cubs for 2009, could become a target of the Red Sox, suggests Cafardo. The club is in the market for a fourth outfielder and Jimmy Ballgame’s 19 home runs for the Cubs have apparently generated attention.

To put that into perspective, if you add the 2008 home run counts of Cardinals outfielders Chris Duncan, Brian Barton, Joe Mather, Skip Schumaker and Nick Stavinoha, your total would be only 24 long balls. It took them 1105 at-bats to collectively achieve that.

Edmonds delivered his 19 in just 250 ABs.

While there was no doubt that then-GM Jocketty erred in giving Edmonds two years prior to the 2007 season, it is a shame that the outfielder could not have remained a Cardinal last year. In hindsight, perhaps it took his humbling failure with the San Diego Padres for Edmonds to accept he might be better deployed as a platoon player in the latter stage of his fine career.

A mercurial type, he might have never been able to bow to that reality in St. Louis. Too bad, but best of luck to Edmonds in wherever he lands in 2009.

(We’ll have to forgive Cafardo for not knowing JimEd flamed out to start the 2008 season with the Padres rather than the Cardinals. At least he understands there is baseball played outside the Northeast Corridor.)

Last but not least is underappreciated Braden Looper, who Cafardo fingers as being “close” to signing with the Milwaukee Brewers. It seems an ideal spot for the right-handed starter to land. Too bad it is a National League Central rival of St. Louis.

The Brew Crew’s 2008 playoff rotation took a major hit this off-season with the loss of C.C. Sabathia and the almost certain departure of Ben Sheets. They still have exciting youngster Yovani Gallardo and holdover Jeff Suppan, but clearly need outside help.

As an aside, Looper has Suppan partially to thank for receiving the opportunity to convert from relieving to starting in 2007. The two were teammates in St. Louis in 2006, with Suppan in the rotation and Looper in the bullpen. Once Suppan and Jeff Weaver departed after the World Championship season, Looper was drafted to help fill the starting gap the past two years. Now it is his turn to cash in.

Soup, a great guy if there ever was one, priced himself out of the Cardinals comfort range as he headed toward free agency. Suppan ended up signing with Milwaukee for four years, $42 million, a deal quite comparable to what the Cardinals and Kyle Lohse agreed to at season’s end. (Seems longer than 90 days ago, doesn’t it?)

While there is one parallel between Suppan and Looper in that they were cut loose, there is one huge difference.

The Jocketty-led Cardinals of the 2006-2007 off-season were quite comfortable that Suppan would not accept an offer of arbitration. As a result, they offered, Suppan declined as expected and the Cardinals collected a compensation-round draft pick plus the Brewers’ second-rounder when he signed with Milwaukee.

That comp round pick was turned into Clayton Mortensen, who has already reached Triple-A, and is indisputably a top 15 prospect in the system. (Milwaukee’s forfeited second rounder was used by the Cards to take Clemson’s David Kopp, currently our number 34 prospect in the Cardinals system.)

While the take for losing Looper this time around would have only been the sandwich pick, the Cardinals were overly cautious in deciding not to offer him arbitration. I still believe John Mozeliak and the Cards were unnecessarily worried that Looper would accept a one-year deal with them.

The decision not to make the offer to Looper left a valuable comp pick sitting on the table, never to be used. If the Cards go one step further and sign a Type A free agent such as reliever Brian Fuentes, their first 2009 draft pick would be in the 65-70 range. No talent anywhere near a Brett Wallace or Colby Rasmus level will still be left on the board.

Once Looper signs a nice, big two or three-year deal with Milwaukee (or elsewhere), it will become even more obvious that the Cardinals blew their chance to add another premium draft pick in a year when they could really use it.

In recent days, two of the most talked about subjects surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals have been the cases of free agent closer Brian Fuentes and starting pitcher Braden Looper – one potentially coming into town with the other likely leaving.

In what follows, I will explain how these two seemingly-isolated cases are anything but.

Aftershocks of the decision to not offer Looper arbitration include either the Cardinals not signing any Type A free agents such as Fuentes or gutting the early part of their 2009 draft. There is also a significant financial ramification that may or may not impact the organization’s Latin American program.

Looper and Fuentes

Losing Looper

Though the Looper decision was not assumed prior to the December 1 deadline, many observers, including me, expected the Cards would offer him. Yet, Looper was probably pleased to be cut loose. Seeing Kyle Lohse snare a four-year deal worth $41 million likely helped Braden realize some time ago that his chance to score a similar multi-year contract would not be with St. Louis.

Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and now Lohse have long-term contracts, with Todd Wellemeyer coming up for consideration in 12 months. That is potentially too many starters tied up for too long, leaving Looper on the outside looking in.

Despite concerns about the economic downturn everywhere, Looper seemed assured of getting a better deal somewhere other than a one-year, arbitration-driven deal with the Cardinals. As a result, it was generally expected that the shaky closer-turned solid starter would have turned down the opportunity for a one-year deal with the Cards via arbitration.

The Cardinals didn’t care about expectations. They were apparently worried that Looper might accept despite the seemingly low risk of its occurrence. Therefore, they took the only route to absolutely assure that wouldn’t happen – they cut their formal ties with the pitcher.

With no guarantee that injured ace Carpenter will be ready to go to start next season and how many innings they will get from him, the Cardinals seem to be in the market for some insurance for their starting rotation. Their top five are currently Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro.

If the organization does want that insurance, it seemingly won’t be delivered via Looper, unless the two sides come back around to each other later in the off-season.

Extra pick lost

Though I believe the Cardinals were unnecessarily cautious in this situation, I am frankly less concerned about keeping Looper than I am about the downstream ramifications of the decision.

As a Type B free agent, had Looper been offered but not accepted, the Cardinals would have received a compensatory draft pick commonly called a “sandwich” pick that can be used between the first and second rounds of the June, 2009 draft.

Since the Cardinals did not make that offer to Looper (or Jason Isringhausen or Russ Springer), they were not awarded that selection.

A change in plans?

From an organization that has highly-prioritized the long-term mission of building their farm system, bypassing the likely compensatory pick for Looper seems a surprisingly counter-strategic decision.

If fact, 2009 will be the first time since 2004, before Jeff Luhnow assumed the role of farm director for the Cardinals, that they will have no extra picks coming into the draft.

Perhaps anticipating this kind of move, not ninety days ago, I asked Luhnow if the Cardinals could ever have too many compensatory picks.

“No, absolutely not. Those picks are valuable and you just have to figure out how to turn those assets into something that you need. I am speaking as the scouting director now, but even speaking with my global hat on, we like those draft picks and will take as many as we can get,” Luhnow declared.

Fear of being locked into arbitration with their compensation-eligible free agents clearly altered the organization’s intent this year.

Yet, the Cardinals are not unique. Along with St. Louis, at least ten other clubs, perhaps concerned about the economy, excluded all their six-year-plus veteran free agents from arbitration offers.

No sandwiches would leave system hungrier

To provide a reminder of the quality of players that have joined the Cardinals as supplemental picks, I offer their most recent sandwich round selections, with the bonus amounts awarded each:

2008: Lance Lynn - $938,000

2007: Clayton Mortensen – $650,000

2006: Chris Perez – $800,000

2005: Mark McCormick – $800,000 and Tyler Herron – $650,000

All in all, would the Cards rather have these players than not? It would certainly seem like it.

Though the jury is still out on the 2005 and 2008 sandwich players, the major league club already began reaping the benefits of Perez less than two years after he was pitching in the College World Series. Mortensen is also on the fact track to the big leagues, starting in Triple-A before he had even one full year of professional experience.

A misdirection play being run?

As they pump more money into their growing Latin American operations, could the Cardinals be changing their strategy by passing up comp picks, while routing more money away from the June draft in the process?

Think of it this way. Had the Cardinals landed 16-year-old Venezuelan centerfielder Yorman Rodriguez in August instead of former GM Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds, by my calculations, the Cards would have spent more 2008 bonus money overseas than they did in the regular First-Year Player Draft. The Reds reportedly dished out $2.7 million to Rodriguez, a record for a Venezuelan-born player.

Furthermore, consider the Cardinals’ top 2008 international signing, Roberto De La Cruz. The third baseman received more in bonus than any other Cards player taken in this June’s First-Year Player Draft not named Brett Wallace, a polished college hitter five years older than he. In fact, the Dominican Republic native fetched the same bonus as the number 29 pick in the first round!

Since at least 2005 and probably much longer, only Wallace and Pete Kozma (2007) received more in bonus from the club than did De La Cruz. Among the recent first-rounders who brought home less than the third baseman are Adam Ottavino (2006) and Colby Rasmus (2005).

That is uncharted territory for an organization that didn’t even have an international presence outside of the Dominican Republic just a few short years ago.

Increasing confidence in growing overseas budget

I asked the Vice President of Amateur Scouting and Player Development about the significance of the escalation of the Cardinals’ international spending on players and whether my estimate of their shifting balance toward a majority spent in Latin America and a minority in the US is accurate.

“Correct. There are a couple of clubs teetering on that edge and a couple that have already gone over (spending more outside the US). We wouldn’t be afraid to do that.

“I think Mr. DeWitt and Mo now have the confidence that we have the right scouting resources in place and the right infrastructure in place that it makes sense to deploy the bonus dollars there and wait for the return. It is a bit more of a long term investment, so you have to look at the whole portfolio,” Luhnow explained.

Type A free agent signing carries big downside

The final ramification of not having that supplemental selection is that the Cardinals may be more reluctant to sign Fuentes or any other of one of the top free agents, called Type A, this despite the club needing help at several positions at the major league level.

Examples of Type A players offered arbitration that might previously have been on the Cardinals shopping list include:

Infielders Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera

Left-handed relievers Fuentes and Darren Oliver (AA*)

Starting pitchers A.J. Burnett (SS**), Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez

Outfielders Raul Ibanez (SS**) and Milton Bradley

* arbitration offered

** signed since

(The above list excludes high-end Type A’s that were in the same situation but likely priced outside the Cardinals budget, players such as C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez. (Yeah, I heard the rumors about an offer to K-Rod, but I don’t believe them.)

The Looper situation indirectly suggested that the remainng Type A players have an uphill chance of becoming Cardinals in 2009. Either the players accepted the offer of arbitration, as did Oliver, taking them off the market by tying them to their old clubs, or if they declined, compensation from the signing organization will be required. As an aside, of the 25 players offered this year, only Oliver and Cincinnati’s David Weathers accepted.

If the Cardinals do go ahead and sign any Type A, it would seem their plan to focus on improving the farm system via the First-Year Player Draft would be taking a one-year hiatus as a result.

Again, here’s why. If a Type A signing is made, the Cardinals would forfeit their first round pick for next June.

Is signing a Type A worse than not?

We’ve already seen why the Cards will have no supplemental pick in 2009. Add to that the potential loss of their first-rounder in this scenario and the chances of the organization nabbing an impact player in the 2009 draft will be greatly diminished.

Though the specifics of the supplemental round are not yet defined, I currently estimate the Cardinals’ second-round pick should be somewhere between 65th and 70th. That would be their very first selection in the 2009 draft in this case.

Not pretty, nor is it a normal situation for the Cardinals.

In fact, the last year the Cards went into a June draft without either a first-rounder or a supplemental first-round pick was way back in 2002. That was due to the club having signed Type A free agents Isringhausen and Tino Martinez during the previous off-season.

The 2002 scenario could repeat this year if the Cards signed two Type As such as Fuentes and Perez. Losing both their first and second-round picks would ensue.

Rewriting history isn’t pretty

In a world where the Cards would have no first or sandwich round picks, their top selections in recent drafts would have been the following players. They represent the organization’s initial second-round picks in these years:

2008: Shane Peterson

2007: David Kopp

2006: Brad Furnish

2005: Josh Wilson (retired)

Nothing against any of these young men, but would anyone feel as good as they do about the much-ballyhooed improvement in the Cardinals system had these players been the organization’s highest picks in the last four drafts?

Methinks not.

Money potentially saved

If one subscribes to this action being a part of an expense-adjustment strategy on the part of the Cardinals, consider this. The organization could avoid spending as much as $2 million next June just by not having to bonus both a first-round and a sandwich pick.

Another potential factor is sheer roster space to put all their players. While the Cardinals’ system is the youngest of the 30 organizations in aggregate, it is reaching its capacity, says Luhnow.

With fewer minor league free agents and better quality players, it is becoming more difficult to determine who should be pruned from the system. As a result, fewer can enter.

Here is Luhnow’s recent observation.

“I look at next year’s draft and look at all the players in our system and I am not sure we are going to need to sign as many as we did this year. I said that this year, too, so we will have to see,” the farm director explained.

There are several potential ways to achieve financial benefits. For example, they could shave off the high-end picks as discussed here, they could draft more players with signability issues, and/or they could refuse to pay over slot value for any draftees.

In conclusion

The Cardinals’ decision to not offer Braden Looper arbitration either eliminates their signing of a Type A free agent or dooms them to waiting and waiting to make their first 2009 draft selection until the 65-70 range.

There is a possibility that the club could divert unspent bonus money into their Latin American signing budget, but that is not assured.