The reason is the bulging cervical disc in the neck of Chris Carpenter. The veteran ace has been sidelined indefinitely, his projected opening day start in considerable doubt.

My only question is this: Why did the Cardinals wait until March 12 to name their sixth starter?

Even if Carpenter was healthy now, odds are that someone else will be injured in good time. Even if Carpenter has a miraculous recovery and can take the ball in Miami on April 4, the sixth starter will be needed soon enough.

It isn’t as if their rotation hasn’t shown considerable signs of wear. Six weeks away from his 37th birthday, Carpenter just finished his first-ever stretch of three consecutive years without serious injury. Adam Wainwright is just returning from Tommy John surgery. Kyle Lohse has battled injuries the past few years.

Lynn is and has been the most obvious choice as sixth starter.

A very good starting pitcher throughout his minor league years, the right-hander was named the organizational Pitcher of the Year in 2009 after jumping three levels in one season. He is tested at Triple-A, including logging 13 wins in 2010, and is proven at the major league level as well, stepping into a key relief role last season. In our 2012 Cardinals top 40 prospect list, Lynn is the top-ranked starting pitcher other than Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez.

Other candidates don’t stack up.

Sure, top prospect Miller has made two spring starts, but he has yet to throw an inning at the Triple-A level and could use more time to prepare for what should be a long major league career. Why rush Miller when Lynn is truly ready?

Kyle McClellan went down this path in 2011, filling in Wainwright’s spot to start the season. After a spring ERA of 0.78, McClellan was effective early before running out of gas. Having gone over two months without a win due to injury and ineffectiveness, he was returned to the pen when Edwin Jackson was acquired.

Like Lynn, Brandon Dickson is a proven Triple-A starter whose stuff is not of the same caliber as his former rotation mate. At Cardinals prospect #32 overall, Dickson is just the ninth-ranked starter in the system.

Maikel Cleto is a fireballer who began 2011 in Palm Beach but was forced by injuries to others to make his MLB debut as a reliever. The 22-year-old needs more repetition to refine his pitches and prove he can do more than just throw hard.

While Lynn should have enough time in Florida to prepare to step into St. Louis’ rotation, why didn’t they plan for this from day one? Even if Lynn has to return to Memphis for awhile, I contend the 2012 Cardinals will ultimately be a better team with him continuing to start, and being ready to step into the rotation at a moment’s notice whenever needed.

Yes, Lynn was a valuable member of the 2011 St. Louis bullpen, but there are already more good relievers in camp than jobs available. In a dire situation, Lynn could return to relieving much more quickly than he could execute the reverse move.

I might even go a step further and suggest the 2013 and beyond teams may benefit as well. Lohse and Jake Westbrook will be free agents after this season. The Cardinals need to know if Lynn will be part of their rotation out into the future.

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Pictured in order by rows: John Mozeliak, John Vuch, Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter, Tyler Greene, Zack Cox, Rafael Furcal, Adam Wainwright.

The Cardinal Nation subscribers should check out my article on the main site where I posted audio from each of the above and others. I expect to do the same for Sunday and Monday as well.

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It isn’t as if they hadn’t pitched well in spring training, because they did. Augenstein had an ERA of 0.77 while Batista was at 1.59. It is just that we have seen many times before when a period of short-lived success passes and what remains is not nearly as interesting. Not surprisingly, such was the case for these two.

Augenstein was injured in mid-April and after a long rehab, remained in Memphis for the rest of the 2011 season. He was removed from the 40-man roster in July and released in November.

Batista lasted longer, but was given his release on June 23. He then signed with the Mets and pitched in both the majors and minors over the remainder of the summer.

At least three inexperienced pitchers (in MLB terms) took advantage of the opportunities given them, contributing to the Cardinals’ recovery that culminated in a playoff berth and two cases, the World Championship as well.

They were each ranked among our top 14 Cardinals prospects one year ago, so their emergence should not be considered a surprise. They are Lance Lynn (number three prospect), Eduardo Sanchez (number four) and Fernando Salas (number 14). Each should be in the middle of the mix for a pen spot in 2012.

The pitcher taking Batista’s spot on the Cardinals’ 25-man roster in June was Lynn. The 24-year-old right-hander, a successful starter in the minors, quickly established himself as a reliable reliever before suffering a left oblique injury on August 10.

That injury kept him out until his surprise return in the NLCS. Lynn pitched in five games in both the CS and World Series, tying him for the team lead. He yielded four earned runs in 11 innings for a 3.27 ERA.

When Augenstein went down, Salas received another chance with St. Louis. After having been sent down six times in 2010, this time he stuck. The right-hander from Mexico spent several months as the closer, logging 24 saves in 30 opportunities. Appearing in 68 games overall, he fanned one batter per inning (75 in 75) and walked just 21. His ERA was 2.28.

In the post-season, Salas was called upon a total of 11 times. He gave up five earned runs in 13 1/3 innings for a 3.38 ERA. Salas fanned 12 and walked four.

Sanchez, a 22-year-old Venezuelan, made his MLB debut in April, after coming up from Memphis at the same time as Salas. Like Lynn, the hard-thrower seemed ready, but needed the opportunity to show his stuff in the majors.

Sanchez threw 30 innings over 26 games for St. Louis. He struck out 35 and walked 16. The right-hander won three games, lost one, and was 5-for-7 in save opportunities. His ERA was 1.80.

Unfortunately, Sanchez’ season was scuttled when he was placed on the 15-day DL retroactive to June 13 with what was called at the time a “mild right shoulder strain.” His original late July estimated return ended up extending well into September. Sanchez made just one token late-September appearance. The injury likely cost him a shot at post-season action.

The emergence of these 2011 rookies will help the Cardinals go younger and cheaper in their bullpen going ahead. That frees up salary to potentially strengthen other positions as necessary. With other notables on the horizon such as Adam Reifer, Maikel Cleto, Brandon Dickson, Chuckie Fick and Adam Ottavino, some of the team’s right-handed relief surplus could also be used as trade chips.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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Instead of facing Albuquerque at AutoZone Park, Lynn will be making his major league debut for the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday night at Busch Stadium against the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants.

The 24-year-old will be pitching on three days of rest for the first time this season. With Memphis, he usually went on the standard four days of rest, but also had one six-day break in 2011. In one positive perhaps, that six-day-rest start was Lynn’s worst of the season.

Lynn has been pitching consistently since that six-day-rest outing. He is 4-0 with one no-decision in his last five starts, averaging 6 1/3 innings per start with a 3.73 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio in those most recent 31 1/3 innings is 31:11.

Known as a dependable workhorse, Lynn has gone less than six innings just once this season. You know which game that was…

At least since arriving at Memphis at the end of 2009, he has never started on three days rest. I didn’t go back further as recent history is clear as to his usage pattern.

Lance Lynn, Triple-A, days rest between starts

Lynn’s 2011 game log

5/30 (on five days of rest): Earned his third straight win and fifth of the season after yielding four runs on seven hits in seven innings against Omaha.

5/24 (four days): Picked up his fourth win allowing only one run on five hits at Salt Lake. Matched his season-high while striking out seven batters.

5/19 (five days): Earned his third win of the season against Tacoma giving up two runs on eight hits while walking two and fanning five.

5/13 (four days): Allowed two runs on eight hits in a no decision against Sacramento.

5/8 (four days): Fanned a season-high seven batters picking up his second win at Albuquerque.

5/3 (six days): Allowed a season-high seven runs on eight hits in only 4 1/3 innings against New Orleans, walking four and striking out five while taking the loss.

4/26 (four days): Received a no decision against Iowa, allowing two runs on seven hits in six innings while walking one and striking out four.

4/21 (four days): Pegged with his second loss, giving up the lone run against Omaha while walking four and fanning five in 7 1/3 innings.

4/16 (five days): Suffered his first loss of the season after six innings of work against Iowa, allowing four runs on eight hits while walking one and striking out six.

4/10: Gave up only one run on six hits while striking out three en route to his first win of the season against Oklahoma City.

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Following Saturday’s signing of free agent outfielder Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak declared his 2011 club to essentially be in place. Here are a few of the players who may have impacted in the short term, either positively or negatively, by the moves made by the front office since the conclusion of the season.

Risers

Matt Carpenter. The system’s Player of the Year in 2010, named by both The Cardinal Nation and the Cardinals organization, appears set to become the starting third baseman for Triple-A Memphis in 2011.

With the addition of Berkman, Allen Craig was displaced from the starting outfield picture. Mozeliak announced the ex-minor league third baseman would be returned to his former position in spring camp, ostensibly to become the back up behind fragile David Freese.

If the Cardinals do not move to bring in other reinforcements at the hot corner and if a full-time replacement for Freese is needed during the season, Carpenter could find himself in the mix in St. Louis.

Fernando Salas. I am pretty sure Salas set a Cardinals record with six trips back and forth between St. Louis and Memphis as the extra bullpen man in 2010. Generally, the right-hander did a good job in his MLB introduction.

With the trade of Blake Hawksworth to the Dodgers for Ryan Theriot, a spot in the 2011 Cardinals pen has opened up. Salas would seem to be the favorite entering camp to seize that spot.

Fallers

Allen Craig. With the signing of Berkman, Craig went from the right-handed hitting part of a right field starting platoon to a reserve third baseman/outfielder. While it remains to be seen, my above comments about Carpenter indicate my skepticism that if a full-time third baseman would be needed in the event of a Freese injury that Craig would get that job.

Brendan Ryan. The acquisition of Theriot spelled the end of Ryan starting at shortstop. He does have limited experience playing at the other infield positions and could become a defensive-oriented super-sub if not traded.

Lance Lynn. The re-signing of Jake Westbrook killed off any non-injury hope of a Triple-A starter cracking the 2011 rotation, as did Jaime Garcia the spring prior. Recent vibes from the major league coaching staff indicate they do not consider Lynn ready for the unofficial “sixth starter” role, though that could change with consistent results on the mound.

Kyle McClellan. McClellan is a most important part of the bullpen, yet each spring the club holds open the promise of letting him be a starter, only to snatch it away from him every time. McClellan is a team player and while he has expressed his preference to start, he has proven he will do any job asked. In my opinion, it has reached the point that the organization needs to let McClellan be as good of a reliever as he can be and stop with the “one day he will be a starter” storyline, as it seems clear that isn’t going to happen.

In limbo

Bryan Anderson. Though defense-first catcher Matt Pagnozzi is gone, Anderson, his former job-share partner with Memphis, seems destined for a return to Triple-A for a fourth season. This will not become semi-official until a veteran reserve catcher to replace Jason LaRue is signed, but this seems highly likely. At that point, Anderson will move to the “fallers” group.

Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso. Unless the Cardinals add another veteran infielder to the roster, there remains a chance that either could make the 2011 club as a reserve. If Ryan is dealt away, their chances obviously improve.

Another factor is who is designated as the reserve second baseman behind Skip Schumaker. If Theriot is restricted to short exclusively, being the only natural second baseman in the mix, Descalso’s chances of making the team could improve. Greene is more interchangeable with Ryan.

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Just for completeness, eight members of the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system have been invited to participate in the 2009 AFL as members of the Surprise Rafters. They are pitchers Lance Lynn, David Kopp, Adam Reifer and Mike Parisi along with catcher Bryan Anderson, infielder Daniel Descalso and outfielders Daryl Jones and Tyler Henley.

Q: Why do the Cardinals get so many players on the roster? Shouldn’t they only have five?

A: In a normal year, the rosters consisted of six players from each of five organizations plus each got an additional taxi squad player from A ball. This year to cover for the loss of Hawaii League, they each get a second A player. That makes eight per organization.

Q: You mentioned the organization being able to select players from Single A since the Hawaii league closed. However, your link to the team roster only included 25 players. If five teams feed into that roster, shouldn’t each organization only be supplying five players?

A: My article isn’t about the other organizations, but I did point out that some of the other clubs have not yet finalized all their invitees. So the team roster isn’t complete. That is why some organizations have more players listed than others. The rosters will fill out over the upcoming weeks. Players don’t report for another month.

Q: It is not at all intuitive that a team would need a 40-man roster for six weeks of play. What do the extra three players do? Why would they need such a large squad?

A: The reason the number of AFL players per organization was expanded from 5+1 to 6+1 a few years ago is because the organizations would not send top pitchers for fear of overuse. More pitchers mean shorter outings.

Starting pitchers typically don’t usually go more than three or four innings in the AFL. For example, 2008 AFL Player of the Year Tommy Hanson of the Braves made seven starts, but threw only 28 2/3 innings. As an aside, his AFL ERA was 0.63. After I saw him pitch there, I became a believer.

Another reason for larger rosters is that guys get hurt during the AFL season and it is not like the regular season where there is a lower level farm team with ready replacements already in game shape one day away. At least that is the case until/if they get the Hawaii-replacement A-level fall league in place in 2010.

Q: You mentioned that even though the Cardinals’ AFL allocation appears to be complete, you wouldn’t be surprised if one or more of these first eight players don’t actually suit up. Who and why?

Obviously Daryl Jones, Bryan Anderson and Mike Parisi are just a few days into their respective rehabs, so they would need to finish the regular season without any setbacks.

I like the choices of Tyler Henley and Daniel Descalso and I hope Adam Reifer is ready to hitch it up. Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch reports that Henley will be on the Rafters’ taxi squad. That means he can only play on Wednesdays and Saturdays unless an opening is created by the injury or departure of another.

As an aside, I wonder if those angry that Descalso is stuck behind Jarrett Hoffpauir with Memphis are the same ones who were ready to give Hoff the second base job in St. Louis based on an OBP of over .400 between Springfield and Memphis in 2007? He hasn’t been back near that lofty territory since. So far, Descalso has one standout half-season, in Double-A. Let’s see if he can do better in Arizona than Hoff did in 2007 (.236/.358/.255).

David Kopp is another good selection – if he is healthy. That is far from a sure thing. When he was bumped back down to Palm Beach from Springfield, there were whispers that the right-hander’s velocity isn’t back to where it was before his shoulder problems resurfaced. Unless Kopp is right, sending him to Arizona seems questionable.

Lance Lynn has earned an AFL spot based on his fine season with Palm Beach, then Springfield. However, this is just his first year of full-season ball and he has already thrown 130 innings.

Given, the Double-A Cards’ regular season runs through September 7, Lynn would have four more regular turns plus at least one and likely more additional starts in the playoffs. Springfield is already in the post-season based on their first-half title.

Assuming Lynn will continue to average six innings per start, five-plus more outings would add at least 30 more innings to his 22-year-old arm’s running total.

What may be fatigue is already showing. Lynn picked up his 11^th win Tuesday, going six innings and allowing just one run on three hits. However, his walk rate has been increasing. Lynn issued four free passes Tuesday and has given out 14 in his last 16 2/3 innings and three starts.

Let’s put those pre-AFL 160 innings into context.

With that total last season, Lynn would have led the entire Cardinals minor league system in innings pitched. Only three pitchers even had as many as 140 – P.J. Walters, Jess Todd and Brandon Dickson.

When Tony La Russa was referenced in a recent Post-Dispatch blurb about the instructional league cancellation saying he was concerned about sending players to fall ball after a long regular season, it seemed out of context for instructs, but it surely could apply here to Lynn.

The primary benefit is to enable the organization to develop eight starting pitchers rather than five by pairing four groups of pitchers. The two in each pair take turns starting every fourth day, with the other following in relief. The starter might go five innings or 70-80 pitches, with the second starter scheduled to take over in the sixth.

Just as in 2008, the system has first been abandoned at A-Advanced Palm Beach, though this time around it occurred 19 games or about three weeks earlier than last season. The flash point was the promotion of ace Lance Lynn (pictured) to Double-A Springfield last weekend, but as one Cardinals official explained, “it wasn’t working as well this season as last.”

At the time the deployment of the tandem starters ended last season, the Florida State League club had played 40 games. The club’s record was a stellar 25-15 (.625), the second-best mark in the league and a major contributor to their four-game lead in the FSL East Division.

This season, the final game of the approach occurred on May 1, or about three weeks into the season. The club had a losing record, at 9-12 (.429). In all fairness however, it is difficult to assess the amount of blame for the decline to be placed on the tandem system itself. Clearly the club was looking for a change as when the switch was made, the Cardinals had lost 11 of their previous 13 games.

As the following table shows, the 2009 tandem starters did not earn a single win, in significant contrast to 2008. They had just five decisions in 21 starts. The piggyback starters managed a .500 record but blew four of five save opportunities this season, not performing as well as in 2008. The true relievers are doing slightly better in 2009 in terms of wins and losses, but do not seem to be the difference-makers in terms of this year-to-year comparison.

Looking at the offensive support provided helps to confirm the problems are not all pitching. The hitters’ scoring is down year-to-year between a half and three-quarters of a run per game. The Palm Beach offense is in the bottom third of the league in scoring this season despite them being third in batting average.

2008 40 games	Won-Loss	No-decisions	Saves/opps	Runs/game
Tandem starters	9-8	23
Piggyback starters	10-2		6 of 8
Relievers	6-5		not avail
Offense				4.28
2009 21 games
Tandem starters	0-5	16
Piggyback starters	5-5		1 of 5
Relievers	4-2		5 of 6
Offense				3.67

In terms of the pitchers themselves, here are the initial pairings from the start of the season:

Mark Diapoules / Ryan Kulik

Brian Broderick / Lynn

David Kopp / Nick Additon

Shaun Garceau / Richard Castillo

Thomas Eager was the first starter candidate to move into relief as he was the odd man out from the nine potential starters coming out of spring training. Eager has been very busy out of the pen with a dozen appearances since.

This starting group remained intact until April 27 when Kulik was called up to Springfield. Scott Gorgen, coming off minor shoulder surgery, was promoted from Extended Spring Training to replace him.

Next was Lynn’s promotion on May 2. Chuckie Fick, who had been starting at Quad Cities, was the replacement. However, he went directly into relief upon joining Palm Beach.

The other tandem starters now moved to the bullpen are Garceau and Diapoules, leaving Gorgen, Broderick, Additon, Kopp and Castillo as the five-man rotation going forward.

Looking at the following table, sorted by ERA, one can understand how the decisions were made, as the two pitchers with the highest ERAs were reassigned to relief. Kulik’s ERA was not tidy, but check out his strikeout to walk ratio – same as Lynn’s 17-to-3 when he was promoted.

Those currently starting are denoted with an “S”, those promoted with a “P” and the pitchers moved to relief are labeled with an “R”.

The remaining guys really need to cut down on the free passes. As a team, the Cardinals currently lead the FSL with 107 walks, a bloated total that is 26% higher than the second-worst team and 41% above the league average.

With Palm Beach	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
Scott Gorgen S	0	0	1.29	2	1	7	2	1	1	3	6	0.71
Lance Lynn P	0	0	2.30	5	2	15.2	16	4	4	3	17	1.21
David Kopp S	1	2	3.18	6	4	22.2	25	8	8	9	17	1.50
Brian Broderick S	2	1	3.65	6	4	24.2	22	10	10	3	10	1.01
Nick Additon S	0	1	4.82	6	3	18.2	16	17	10	13	12	1.55
Richard Castillo S	0	3	5.14	6	3	21	26	17	12	11	8	1.76
Ryan Kulik P	1	1	5.25	4	2	12	15	7	7	3	17	1.50
Mark Diapoules R	1	1	5.79	6	3	14	18	10	9	14	11	2.29
Shaun Garceau R	0	2	6.16	6	3	19	15	14	13	9	12	1.26

It remains to be seen if the change can help right the Cardinals’ ship, but at least most of the way the first time through, it hasn’t yet helped the bottom line.

Since the tandem system was scrapped, four more defeats have ensued on 18 total runs allowed. That has extended Palm Beach’s skid to seven in a row and 15 losses in their last 18 games.

Hopefully, the Cardinals brass can come up with a way to tweak the offense too, as they scored just 11 runs in the four games, or fewer than three runs per, a trend that is not heading in the right direction.

For current rosters and up-to-date transactions at all levels of the Cardinals minor league system, don’t forget to check out the Roster Matrix.

Note that Future Redbirds has also posted a Palm Beach “Club Check” in the last 24 hours with additional information on the team worth checking out.