To select the award’s namesake, I first had to unearth the worst yearly performance with the bat by a pitcher in team history, post-1900. Of the hundreds of Cardinals hurlers with at least 30 plate appearances in a season, only two posted a .000 OPS.

They are Vicente Palacios in 1994 and John Fulgham in 1980.

To break the apparent tie, I dove into the specifics.

In his season of futility, Fulgham, in his second of two career MLB seasons, had exactly 30 plate appearances. He had three sacrifices, therefore had only 27 official at-bats. He fanned 17 times, but managed to score once.

Palacios had 36 plate appearances in 1994 and also had three sacrifices. He struck out 15 times, but also ground into a double play. Palacios did not cross home plate.

Therefore, Palacios broke the close tie as having the worst hitting season by a Cardinals pitcher since at least 1900.

Here are the worst ten in team history, courtesy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

Rk	Worst OPS pitcher	Yr	OPS
T1	Vicente Palacios	1994	0.000
T1	John Fulgham	1980	0.000
3	Ron Taylor	1963	0.063
4	Bob Purkey	1965	0.084
5	Jose DeLeon	1991	0.087
6	Bill Doak	1913	0.095
7	Bill Doak	1923	0.104
8	Curt Simmons	1965	0.109
9	Paul Dean	1936	0.118
10	Mike Morgan	1996	0.121

The 2009 hitting data was already presented in the earlier article, “Wainwright wins 2009 Allen Watson Award”. Todd Wellemeyer’s .256 OPS brought up the rear as the worst mark for those pitchers with at least 30 plate appearances.

Here are those who would have been the Palacios Award winners this decade. Wellemeyer’s 2009 mark would not have been worst in eight of the last ten years. Anthony Reyes‘s .154 OPS in 2007 was the lowest qualifying mark since 2000. Chris Carpenter is the only name listed twice – in 2005 and 2006.

Year	Worst OPS pitcher	OPS
2009	Todd Wellemeyer	0.256
2008	Kyle Lohse	0.238
2007	Anthony Reyes	0.154
2006	Chris Carpenter	0.254
2005	Chris Carpenter	0.211
2004	Jeff Suppan	0.156
2003	Jason Simontacchi	0.289
2002	Chuck Finley	0.250
2001	Dustin Hermanson	0.206
2000	Garrett Stephenson	0.162

That was posted even before Wellemeyer struggled mightily in his one-third inning of relief on Sunday as he was pulled with the bases loaded and one out. Two reached base via walks and one via a hit. As the Cardinals’ defense failed them, all three runners came home, turning a tight, one-run contest into the game-ending four-run edge for Chicago as the Cubs won 7-3.

For what is it worth, on this day, the runs were unearned. Overall, that hasn’t been the case most often as Wellemeyer has allowed 62 earned runs in 100 1/3 innings for a 5.56 ERA this season.

The following offers a perspective of the end result, not the means to that end as Ian more interestingly explained. Yet it is still very telling to me and supports the same conclusion.

In the storied 128-year history of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise, Wellemeyer has joined a most dubious group – the top dozen worst ERAs for a pitcher given at least 18 starts in a season.

Amazingly, four of the bottom 12 have been added to the list in the last four years alone – Jason Marquis in 2006 plus Anthony Reyes and Kip Wells in 2007. In case you didn’t break the code, none of those three remain with the Cardinals today.

In other words, Wellemeyer has been given more than enough rope.

While there remains almost a half-season for him to improve, odds are at least as likely Wellemeyer would move further up this list – if he is given the opportunity, that is.

St. Louis Cardinals highest ERA in a season (18 or more starts) – club history

Rank	Pitcher	ERA	GS	Year	Age
1	Andy Benes	7.38	19	2001	33
2	Nelson Briles	6.24	19	1970	26
3	Anthony Reyes	6.04	20	2007	25
4	Jason Marquis	6.02	33	2006	27
5	Bill Sherdel	5.93	22	1929	32
6	Danny Jackson	5.90	19	1995	33
7	Jose Jimenez	5.85	28	1999	25
8	Jesse Haines	5.71	25	1929	35
9	Kip Wells	5.70	26	2007	30
10	Leo Dickerman	5.58	20	1925	28
11	Todd Wellemeyer	5.56	18	2009	30
12	Bill Doak	5.54	29	1922	31
13	Allen Watson	5.52	22	1994	23

Thanks to Tom Orf for the data pull.

With Kyle Lohse set to return to the St. Louis rotation this Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals will soon be faced with a decision over who will remain as their number five starter. It will likely boil down to who they believe will do the least amount of damage, as Todd Wellemeyer currently sits with a 7-7 record and a 5.58 ERA in 100 innings pitched while Brad Thompson has tallied a 2-6 record and a 5.31 ERA in just shy of 58 innings.

Wellemeyer has fallen hard this season after posting a very respectable 13-9 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 191.7 IP in 2008. It seems fairly clear that he has become overexposed against left-handed batters, giving up 11 HR, 27 BB, and a 1.98 WHIP along with 28 strikeouts in 48 IP this season. Conversely, he has only yielded 2 HR and 18 walks with a 1.44 WHIP and 36 K in 52 IP against right-handed batters. In 2008, he recorded only 29% of his outs against LHB while in 2009, he has been forced to record 48% of his outs against lefties.

His reliance upon his changeup has thus jumped from 10.8% to 13.1% this season while his slider usage has dropped from 23.7% to 21.4%. This is a big problem, as FanGraphs indicates that he gives up 6.12 runs more than average per 100 changeups thrown compared to giving up 1.87 runs fewer than average per 100 sliders and 1.86 runs fewer than average per 100 curves. In short, teams have realized that his changeup is an inadequate off-speed offering and are stacking their lineups with left-handed hitting in order to compensate.

Thompson joined the 2009 rotation on June 2, making eight starts since. In five of those outings, he failed to last longer than five innings. Much like Wellemeyer, Thompson has been forced to face many more left-handers than in the past, as he has recorded almost exactly as many outs against RHB than LHB this season. This has naturally resulted in him throwing his changeup significantly more often – he has used it a solid 20% of the time following a steady 13% usage in 2007 and 2008.

Unfortunately for Brad, his already poor fastball velocity has dropped from 88 MPH to 87 MPH this season while his changeup velocity has risen from 81 MPH to 83 MPH. A four MPH difference likely won’t fool very many major league batters. To date, his changeup has actually been his most effective offering according to FanGraphs, as his curveball has fared worse. In 29 IP against RHB, Thompson has 9 K against 6 BB with a 1.40 WHIP and 3 HR while in 28 2/3 IP against LHP, Thompson has 13 K against 11 BB with a 1.38 WHIP and 4 HR. Clearly, there isn’t a strong platoon advantage either way.

As counter-intuitive as it may seem, I believe that Brad Thompson may be the Cardinals’ best choice to stay in the rotation while Todd Wellemeyer is best suited as a situational or long relief pitcher out of the bullpen. Wellemeyer’s 5.6 IP per start isn’t protecting the bullpen significantly more than Thompson’s 5.4 IP per start, and Thompson at least appears to have some hope at stopping left-handed batting.

There is some hope, as Wellemeyer has begun to throw a cutter a mere 2.2% of the time this season, and it has fared well in limited action. Ryan Franklin has become as much more effective pitcher against LHB this season due to a sudden 26.2% usage of the cutter (compared to 2.5% last season) in addition to phasing out his slider.

In 2009, Franklin has thrown nine strikeouts against four walks with a 0.77 WHIP in 15 2/3 IP against left-handed batters compared to 15 strikeouts against three walks with a 0.87 WHIP in 17 1/3 IP against right-handed batters. Compare this to Franklin’s 2008 season, when he surrendered a 1.61 WHIP and 21 K:17 BB against LHB while giving up a 1.38 WHIP and 30 K:13 BB against RHB.

If Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan could help teach Wellemeyer an effective off-speed option against left-handed pitchers like he did Franklin, then Todd would be versatile enough to return to the starting rotation. Until then, Brad Thompson would be my choice.

Thanks to FanGraphs and their PitchFX data for pitch usage, speeds, and effectiveness.

One key reason for this is that they are not only keeping the ball down, but they are also keeping it in the ballpark. That is evidenced by their NL-leading fewest home runs allowed – 21 in 323.1 innings. (The Dodgers also have 21, but have pitched just 315 innings.)

Through Thursday, one third of the season was complete – 54 games. Over the full 162-game season, the current rate works out to 63 long balls allowed. That would be the lowest for the Cardinals rotation in at least the last five seasons and is a whopping 43% improvement over the next best staff, in 2008.

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitchers home runs allowed (season)

Year	Number	NL rank
2009 (proj.)	63	T1
2008	110	9
2007	115	6
2006	137	14
2005	112	8

Of course, for the starters as a group to be doing well, so must they be as individuals. Following are the Cardinals starters’ 2009 home run rate per nine innings compared to their career marks.

All except Adam Wainwright are having better than average (for them) success keeping the ball in play so far this season. Interestingly, Wainwright still has the best career rate of the group. All five starters are currently under one home run allowed per nine innings this season – a major element of their collective success.

	2009 HR allowed	2009 HR/9 IP	Career HR allowed	Career HR/9 IP
Chris Carpenter	1	0.24	175	1.00
Joel Pineiro	2	0.28	153	1.05
Todd Wellemeyer	4	0.58	59	1.09
Adam Wainwright	7	0.88	39	0.73
Kyle Lohse	6	0.96	181	1.15

Of course, the current run is included, with two runs yielded over the last five games. It is the fourth such streak over the last half-century and ties the best single-season record. Prior to 2009, the most recent stretch was in 1973.

It is not the record however, as the club spun five consecutive shutouts over the end of the 1962 season and into the start of 1963. (Yes, streaks are allowed to run over season boundaries.)

Game	Date	Opponent	StL R	Opp R	StL	Winning pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
39	5/19/2009	vs Chicago Cubs	3	0	W	Piniero	9	3	0	0	0	5
40	5/20/2009	vs Chicago Cubs	2	1	W	Carpenter	5	3	0	0	2	4
41	5/21/2009	vs Chicago Cubs	3	1	W	Wainwright	8 2/3	5	1	1	1	7
42	5/22/2009	vs Kansas City Royals	5	0	W	Wellemeyer	6	4	0	0	3	3
43	5/23/2009	vs Kansas City Royals	5	0	W	Lohse	8	4	0	0	0	6
158	9/26/1973	vs Chicago Cubs	1	0	W	Wise	9	5	0	0	0	6
159	9/27/1973	vs Chicago Cubs	2	0	W	Cleveland	9	1	0	0	0	3
160	9/28/1973	vs Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	W	Segui (RP)	5	2	0	0	3	2
						Thompson, M.(SP-ND)	4	0	0	0	4	3
161	9/29/1973	vs Philadelphia Phillies	7	1	W	Gibson	6	5	1	1	3	2
162	9/30/1973	vs Philadelphia Phillies	3	1	W	Wise (RP)	4	0	0	0	1	4
						Foster, A. (SP-ND)	4 1/3	4	1	1	2	3
62	6/15/1968	vs Cincinnati Reds	2	0	W	Gibson	9	4	0	0	0	13
63	6/16/1968	vs Cincinnati Reds	4	2	W	Washburn	7 1/3	9	2	2	4	3
64	6/18/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	1	0	W	Briles	9	8	0	0	0	3
65	6/19/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	4	0	W	Carlton	9	1	0	0	0	9
66	6/20/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	1	0	W	Gibson	9	5	0	0	1	6
		Over 2 Years
161	9/28/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	3	2	W	Jackson, L.	10	9	2	1	2	2
162	9/29/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	2	0	W	Broglio	9	2	0	0	3	9
163	9/30/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	1	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	1	4
1	4/9/1963	at New York Mets	7	0	W	Broglio	9	2	0	0	2	8
2	4/10/1963	at New York Mets	4	0	W	Washburn	9	4	0	0	1	5
3	4/13/1963	vs Philadelphia Phillies	7	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	2	4

That same 1962-1963 stretch can also be extended to two runs over six games. The current Cards would need another shutout to close the Royals series on Sunday to match that as the lowest opponent scoring six-game stretch over the last 50 years.

As long as we’re looking ahead, here are all the best six-game stretches, with the record low in a single season at five runs. That occurred five times in total, three during a single season, most recently in 1982. Beating that remains possible Sunday.

Game	Date	Opponent	StL R	Opp R	StL	Winning pitcher	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
143	9/14/1982	at Philadelphia Phillies	2	0	W	Stuper	7 1/3	4	0	0	3	3
144	9/15/1982	at Philadelphia Phillies	8	0	W	Andujar	9	3	0	0	1	4
146	9/17/1982	at New York Mets	7	1	W	Sutter (RP)	3	0	0	0	0	2
						Rasmussen (SP-ND)	7	4	2	2	0	4
145	9/17/1982	at New York Mets	3	2	W	Mura	5 2/3	6	1	1	5	3
147	9/18/1982	at New York Mets	2	0	W	Forsch	7 1/3	5	0	0	3	6
148	9/18/1982	at New York Mets	6	2	W	Lahti (RP)	6	5	1	1	0	6
						Kaat (SP-ND)	3	5	1	1	0	1
149	9/19/1982	at New York Mets	3	1	W	Stuper	6 1/3	7	1	1	2	2
150	9/20/1982	vs Philadelphia Phillies	4	1	W	Andujar	6 2/3	7	1	1	3	6
62	6/15/1968	vs Cincinnati Reds	2	0	W	Gibson	9	4	0	0	0	13
63	6/16/1968	vs Cincinnati Reds	4	2	W	Washburn	7 1/3	9	2	2	4	3
64	6/18/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	1	0	W	Briles	9	8	0	0	0	3
65	6/19/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	4	0	W	Carlton	9	1	0	0	0	9
66	6/20/1968	vs Chicago Cubs	1	0	W	Gibson	9	5	0	0	1	6
67	6/21/1968	vs Atlanta Braves	4	3	W	Granger	2	1	0	0	0	0
						Jaster (SP-ND)	6 2/3	5	2	1	1	3
68	6/22/1968	vs Atlanta Braves	6	1	W	Washburn	9	7	1	1	0	4
144	9/8/1963	at Pittsburgh Pirates	3	2	W	Broglio	7	8	2	2	1	1
145	9/9/1963	vs Chicago Cubs	6	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	2	3
146	9/10/1963	vs Chicago Cubs	8	0	W	Gibson	9	6	0	0	3	5
147	9/11/1963	vs Chicago Cubs	4	0	W	Sadecki	5 2/3	4	0	0	2	3
148	9/12/1963	vs Chicago Cubs	8	3	W	Broglio	9	8	3	3	0	7
149	9/13/1963	vs Milwaukee Braves	7	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	3	7
150	9/14/1963	vs Milwaukee Braves	3	2	W	Gibson	8	5	2	1	5	7
152	9/15/1963	vs Milwaukee Braves	5	0	W	Burdette	9	6	2	2	0	5
151	9/15/1963	vs Milwaukee Braves	3	2	W	Sadecki	9	5	0	0	4	6
		Over 2 Years
158	9/28/1966	vs Los Angeles Dodgers	2	0	W	Jaster	9	4	0	0	2	4
159	9/29/1966	vs Los Angeles Dodgers	1	2	L	Jackson, A.	6	8	2	2	1	1
160	9/30/1966	vs Chicago Cubs	2	0	W	Hughes	9	3	0	0	1	8
161	10/1/1966	vs Chicago Cubs	4	3	W	Gibson	8 1/3	8	3	3	5	5
162	10/2/1966	vs Chicago Cubs	2	0	W	Cosman	9	2	0	0	2	5
1	4/11/1967	vs San Francisco Giants	6	0	W	Gibson	9	5	0	0	0	13
161	9/28/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	3	2	W	Jackson, L.	10	9	2	1	2	2
162	9/29/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	2	0	W	Broglio	9	2	0	0	3	9
163	9/30/1962	at Los Angeles Dodgers	1	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	1	4
1	4/9/1963	at New York Mets	7	0	W	Broglio	9	2	0	0	2	8
2	4/10/1963	at New York Mets	4	0	W	Washburn	9	4	0	0	1	5
3	4/13/1963	vs Philadelphia Phillies	7	0	W	Simmons	9	5	0	0	2	4

Though it is clearly getting ahead of myself, the above data also covers the best seven-game period at six runs, again last accomplished in 1982. Over eight games, we see a best of seven runs scored in 1982 and for nine games, the 1962 Cards yielded just nine runs.

I won’t make any suggestions or predictions this time other than to note that Sunday’s starter, Joel Pineiro (pictured above), is the man who began the run, so he is quite capable.

Special thanks: Without researcher Tom Orf, I wouldn’t have been able to bring this to you.

The wins were secured by superb pitching, as the Cardinals’ staff, led by starters Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and fortified by the bullpen, allowed the Cubbies just two runs in total over the 27 innings of baseball.

With the help of statman Tom Orf, we can put that team pitching feat into its proper perspective. During the last 30 years, only once prior to this week had the Cardinals stopped the Cubs offense so consistently over at least three games.

From April 20 through 22, 1981, Bob Forsch, Andy Rincon and the late Lary Sorensen and their pen mates held the Chicagoans to a single run in the three home games. The latter two spun complete-game shutouts while Forsch, like Carpenter this week, went five innings.

Overall, such a three-game period of Cardinals dominance (opponents scoring two total runs or fewer) has now occurred 17 times in the three decades since 1979. In addition to the 1981 Chicago set, the Cards have allowed just one run three other times, but have not strung together three consecutive scoreless games.

Only five times during such a streak did the Cardinals hold their opponent to two runs or fewer only to lose the game. They were shut out each time. Ten of the 17 were against the same club during the same series, while the others included two different opponents.

Here are the 13 three-game streaks since 1979, listed from most recent to oldest.

Game	Date	Home/away	Opponent		StL runs	Opp runs	StL W/L	Pitcher
39	5/19/2009	vs	Chicago	Cubs	3	0	W	Piniero
40	5/20/2009	vs	Chicago	Cubs	2	1	W	Carpenter
41	5/21/2009	vs	Chicago	Cubs	3	1	W	Wainwright
95	7/21/2006	at	Los Angeles	Dodgers	2	0	W	Suppan
96	7/22/2006	at	Los Angeles	Dodgers	6	1	W	Weaver
97	7/23/2006	at	Los Angeles	Dodgers	6	1	W	Marquis
142	9/9/2001	vs	Los Angeles	Dodgers	8	1	W	Mathews, T.J.
143	9/10/2001	at	Milwaukee	Brewers	8	0	W	Kile
144	9/17/2001	vs	Milwaukee	Brewers	2	1	W	Smith, Bud
137	9/3/2001	at	San Diego	Padres	4	0	W	Smith, Bud
138	9/4/2001	at	San Diego	Padres	6	1	W	Morris
139	9/5/2001	at	San Diego	Padres	2	0	W	Williams
80	6/30/1997	vs	Minnesota	Twins	2	1	W	Morris
81	7/1/1997	vs	Minnesota	Twins	2	0	W	Stottlemyre
82	7/2/1997	vs	Minnesota	Twins	2	1	W	Petkovsek
16	4/24/1991	vs	Chicago	Cubs	0	1	L	DeLeon
17	4/26/1991	vs	Montreal	Expos	4	0	W	Smith, Bryn
18	4/27/1991	vs	Montreal	Expos	2	1	W	Hill
98	7/26/1989	vs	Chicago	Cubs	2	0	W	DeLeon
99	7/28/1989	at	Montreal	Expos	2	0	W	Power
100	7/29/1989	at	Montreal	Expos	0	2	L	Hill
56	6/8/1989	at	Montreal	Expos	7	2	W	DiPino
57	6/9/1989	at	Chicago	Cubs	1	0	W	DeLeon
58	6/10/1989	at	Chicago	Cubs	6	0	W	Magrane
118	8/16/1988	vs	Houston	Astros	3	0	W	Terry
119	8/17/1988	vs	Houston	Astros	0	1	L	Magrane
120	8/18/1988	vs	Houston	Astros	2	1	W	Forsch
113	8/10/1988	at	Philadelphia	Phillies	1	0	W	Tudor
114	8/11/1988	at	Philadelphia	Phillies	0	1	L	Costello
115	8/12/1988	at	Chicago	Cubs	4	0	W	Magrane
76	7/3/1987	at	Atlanta	Braves	9	1	W	Forsch
77	7/4/1987	at	Atlanta	Braves	3	0	W	Cox
78	7/5/1987	at	Atlanta	Braves	4	1	W	Mathews, Greg
120	8/24/1985	at	Atlanta	Braves	7	0	W	Forsch
121	8/25/1985	at	Atlanta	Braves	5	2	W	Kepshire
122	8/26/1985	at	Cincinnati	Reds	3	0	W	Cox
151	9/19/1984	vs	Montreal	Expos	1	0	W	Cox
152	9/20/1984	vs	Montreal	Expos	3	2	W	LaPoint
153	9/21/1984	vs	Chicago	Cubs	8	0	W	Kepshire

Now, the pressure is really on Friday starter Todd Wellemeyer (pictured) as he faces his former Kansas City Royals teammates. Only twice during the last 30 years have the Cardinals gone four games in a row yielding a total of two runs or fewer. If Wellemeyer and his mates can blank the Royals at Busch Stadium Friday night, they would join this list.

The two four-game streaks follow, along with an overlapping pair of three-game streaks of two runs or fewer allowed which occurred in 1982.

Game	Date	Home/away	Opponent		StL runs	Opp runs	StL W/L	Pitcher
119	8/19/1983	vs	Houston	Astros	2	0	W	LaPoint
120	8/20/1983	vs	Houston	Astros	3	0	W	Stuper
121	8/21/1983	vs	Houston	Astros	5	2	W	Cox
122	8/23/1983	vs	Atlanta	Braves	7	0	W	Andujar
142	9/13/1982	at	Philadelphia	Phillies	0	2	L	Forsch
143	9/14/1982	at	Philadelphia	Phillies	2	0	W	Stuper
144	9/15/1982	at	Philadelphia	Phillies	8	0	W	Andujar
146	9/17/1982	at	New York	Mets	7	1	W	Sutter
7	4/20/1981	vs	Chicago	Cubs	6	1	W	Forsch
8	4/21/1981	vs	Chicago	Cubs	8	0	W	Rincon
9	4/22/1981	vs	Chicago	Cubs	3	0	W	Sorensen
10	4/25/1981	at	Pittsburgh	Pirates	5	1	W	Shirley

In a final oddity, just once over the last 30 years did the Cardinals put together a five-game stretch during which two three-game sets of two runs or fewer overlapped by just one game. No matter how you count it, three shutouts in five days, separated by a pair of two-run games is very, very impressive!

Game	Date	Home/away	Opponent		StL runs	Opp runs	StL W/L	Pitcher
126	8/28/1992	vs	Los Angeles	Dodgers	1	0	W	Clark
127	8/29/1992	vs	Los Angeles	Dodgers	3	2	W	Olivares
128	8/30/1992	vs	Los Angeles	Dodgers	3	0	W	Cormier
129	8/31/1992	vs	San Diego	Padres	6	2	W	Tewksbury
130	9/1/1992	vs	San Diego	Padres	2	0	W	Osborne

In terms of individual pitchers, Bob Forsch is the champion of this subset of stats with five wins gained during such a streak. They occurred in 1981, 1982, 1985, 1987 and 1988. Danny Cox had four victories, also during the 1980’s.

Of the 17 streaks, four have occurred in this decade, with only three during the 1990’s. The other ten were during the glory years of the 1980’s.

During the last 30 years, the Cards have yet to hold their opponent to two runs or fewer in total over five games. Is that too much to ask? It is up to Wellemeyer, Saturday’s starter Kyle Lohse and perhaps the bullpen.

It was such a bad evening that when Wellemeyer tried to retaliate against a pair of Cardinals hit batters by firing a pitch up at Freddy Sanchez, he missed the second baseman entirely, throwing behind him.

But the subject of this post isn’t to complain about Wellemeyer, who allowed seven runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 innings. Instead, it is a quick look at the troubles of the Cardinals starting pitchers as a group this season to-date.

In the big picture, Chris Carpenter remains on the disabled list, Adam Wainwright is consistently allowing too many baserunners, Kyle Lohse and Joel Pineiro were sick then off their respective games and Mitchell Boggs remains youthfully inconsistent.

On one hand, even with the Tuesday loss, the starters in aggregate have a 15-8 (.652) record, among the best in the National League.

A look at their numbers in greater depth illustrates some of the problems. The table below lists the NL starting pitching stats by team coming into Tuesday’s game ranked by ERA. I then added Wellemeyer’s Tuesday line into the totals, giving the up-to-date Cardinals a second line.

RK	CLUB	W	L	PCT	ERA	G	IP	H	TBF	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG
1	LOS ANGELES	14	6	0.700	3.70	33	185	149	776	80	76	12	84	153	0.224
2	SAN FRANCISCO	11	10	0.524	3.96	31	179.2	160	764	82	79	21	82	175	0.241
3	ATLANTA	13	12	0.520	3.99	32	189.2	176	812	93	84	20	73	162	0.246
(4)	St. Louis (5/11)	15	7	0.682	4.00	32	189	205	811	96	84	14	64	125	0.281
4	PITTSBURGH	11	13	0.458	4.04	31	189.1	183	803	91	85	18	70	100	0.261
5	ARIZONA	8	16	0.333	4.14	33	193.1	184	814	92	89	29	65	148	0.250
6	CINCINNATI	17	11	0.607	4.14	32	198	188	843	99	91	25	76	150	0.251
7	HOUSTON	7	12	0.368	4.17	32	172.2	178	741	84	80	13	67	124	0.274
8	MILWAUKEE	10	10	0.500	4.19	32	187	170	803	93	87	27	75	145	0.242
9	CHICAGO	13	8	0.619	4.22	31	185.2	176	791	91	87	27	70	171	0.251
10	St. Louis (5/12)	15	8	0.652	4.24	33	193.1	214	836	103	91	16	67	129	0.285
11	NEW YORK	15	8	0.652	4.42	31	175	167	767	91	86	18	82	138	0.253
12	COLORADO	9	11	0.450	4.59	30	170.2	169	747	94	87	20	74	121	0.259
13	FLORIDA	8	12	0.400	4.61	32	183.1	196	809	104	94	19	65	141	0.271
14	SAN DIEGO	5	11	0.313	4.71	32	179.2	174	772	99	94	16	80	144	0.259
15	WASHINGTON	9	11	0.450	5.16	31	167.1	199	770	116	96	22	78	96	0.295
16	PHILADELPHIA	7	10	0.412	6.28	29	157.2	196	722	110	110	38	58	114	0.308

On Monday, the Cards starters were fourth in the league in ERA at an even four runs per game. Once Wellemeyer’s Tuesday performance was added in, almost a quarter run per nine innings was lumped on the starters. That would drop them all the way from fourth down to tenth in the NL.

Another indication of the concern is the batting average of the opposing hitters. Prior to Tuesday, the Cardinals starters were touched for a .281 batting average, third-worst in the league. Wellemeyer raised that to .285 on Tuesday.

There is some positive news in that Carpenter is inching closer to a return, perhaps taking the mound in rehab later in the week, but the current five starters seem to be struggling all at once. With Monday’s day off, instead of skipping Boggs this time through, Tony La Russa instead decided to give Lohse and Wainwright an extra day of rest. It seems early for that, but given everything it is probably a good thing.

As a result of the difficulties, the Cardinals are playing only .500 ball over their last ten games. Obviously, over the long haul, that won’t be good enough. While St. Louis is still on top of the NL Central, they are also just two games out of where they finished last season – in fourth place.

I spoke with P.J. Walters about his successful ninth-inning stint on Thursday. He and Ryan Franklin warmed up with Walters coming in since it is a non-save situation. P.J. says he can warm up quickly and can pitch on consecutive days as he did with State College back in 2006. Yet he is the only reliever shown as not available on Tony La Russa’s Friday lineup card.

Speaking of Franklin, La Russa finally broke down and admitted what we all could see. “At this point, he is the closer…. He was always the guy,” pronounced the skipper.

Spoke with Walters and Jason Motte about eyeglasses. Jason wears his trademark prescription specs on the mound and likes them because he can see all angles. P.J. had LASIK surgery two years ago and is very pleased with it, noting he experienced immediate improvement. Motte said he considered the procedure only for “a split second”. I may be a wimp, but I agree with him.

La Russa had penciled Jason LaRue into the lineup initially because catcher Yadier Molina “had a tough night, threw up” on Thursday. Yet when Yadi reported to the park, he told the skipper he was ok to go.

Thursday night’s home plate ump Jim Reynolds was not as fortunate. Beaned by a Blaine Boyer warmup pitch, he was unable to answer the bell on Friday. Substitute umpire Kevin Causey took over at third.

La Russa noted that his team’s fast start “has to do with what the players put in during spring training“ both in terms of drills and game experience.

TLR on Todd Wellemeyer (pre-game): Not as sharp as he can be. Will get better and better as he goes on.

TLR on Rick Ankiel: Once he is sharp, he is a potent bat. Started out ok but not surging as well as Ryan or Chris. He can be a number four hitter in MLB. Last three game key hits means he gets another start. Really been overtrying. When he relaxes more, he has better focus.

TLR on Khalil Greene: Emergency player in the field only for the remainder of this series. Injury to throwing arm, but no consideration of DL because he is pretty good pinch-hitter.

Khalil spoke about the role of being a pinch-hitter actually requires him to concentrate more over the details of the game from the bench than when he is actually playing. He watches the status of the pitchers on both sides so he is not surprised when he is given the heads-up to get ready. When he is in the game, he is less focused on the opposing pitcher, since he figures he will be hitting either way.

As a result, Tyler Greene is again getting the start in day two of his MLB career. Having been a little busy, he was unaware of the other shortstop moves in the system resulting from his promotion. Tyler concurred that the Double-A step Pete Kozma is making is the toughest due to better control and fewer mistakes by pitchers at that level.

K. Greene told me that in his first impression, he likes the new ballpark in DC. He was injured when the Padres traveled there last season and was not with the team. Khalil also liked the hitting background in the old RFK Stadium despite its large dimensions.

TLR on playing Joe Thurston vs. Brian Barden at third: Jokingly flipped an imaginary coin. Seriously, he mentioned he looks at how the opposing pitchers perform against right-handed batters (like Barden) and left-handed (Thurston). Both will continue to play a lot. Need extra pen man with 35 games in 36 days to start season.

TLR on his emergency catcher: “Probably one of the young, aggressive guys, maybe Thurston.” He said a definitive “no” when I jokingly suggested former catcher Motte.

Thursday’s winning pitcher Chris Perez says his heel still is giving him no problems at all, but expects his spring training shot will wear off soon. When he feels pain again, the plan is to do the injection on an off day.

On all the televisions in the clubhouse was the Marlins-Cubs game. I happened to catch Denise Richards do such a terrible rendition of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” that it made Ozzy seem good.

A team official noted the club has sold about 29,000 full and partial season tickets, which was kept flat by the added attraction of the 2009 All-Star Game. As noted elsewhere, the higher revenue premium tickets and corporate spending are down.

Mitchell Boggs was not surprised by his nine strikeouts Friday as he noted the Nationals are an aggressive team. He was surprised when I told him that he took over the 2009 team single-game lead from Walters, who had seven against the Cubs. Mitchell noted that he expects Adam Wainwright to claim the lead sometime very soon.

Albert Pujols mentioned his wife Deidre is heading to the Dominican Republic later this month to deliver the rest of the 200 beds he is donating to needy families.

I mentioned to Ryan Ludwick Thursday evening that La Russa said he would be starting here on Friday. Ryan said he expected it, but admitted that in the two games in Atlanta, he did not feel good at all.

Forgot to mention that Chris Duncan almost choked on his chewing gum in the dugout before the game. I asked him how many months it has been since he used tobacco. He counted out to nine. Great for him! Duncan took a lot of heat in some quarters for his use, so he deserves kudos for quitting.

Wellemeyer credited Dave Duncan with a mechanical adjustment with his hips that he said helped with his better outing on Friday.

Cards vs. Lilly

Since coming over to the National League, Lilly has been tough on the Cardinals as a team and Ryan Ludwick specifically with nine strikeouts in 20 at-bats. As no surprise, Albert Pujols seems to hit against anyone, any time, including the veteran left-hander Lilly.

Lilly	G/Starts	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	OBA
Career vs. StL	11/11	75 1/3	6-2	2.99	1.06	0.223
2008 vs. StL	5/5	35 1/3	3-0	3.06	1.05	0.238
Start ‘em
Chris Duncan	2-for-6 (.333)
Rick Ankiel	3-for 12 (.250)	1HR, 5K
Albert Pujols	9-for-28 (.371)	2HR, 5BB, 3K
Sit ‘em
Khalil Greene	1-for-10 (.100)	1K
Ryan Ludwick	3-for-20 (.150)	4BB, 9K
Yadier Molina	4-for-23 (.174)	1HR, 2BB, 5K
Skip Schumaker	1-for-12 (.083)
Brendan Ryan	4-for-17 (.235)	1BB, 4K

Cubs vs. Wellemeyer

Since Wellemeyer accrued the majority of his MLB appearances to date as a reliever wearing the Cubs uniform, almost all of his results facing them occurred last season – a very small sample.

Ryan Theriot has reached base in seven of his 12 plate appearances vs. Wellemeyer on three walks and four hits. On the other side of the coin, Friday’s hero Alfonso Soriano has whiffed in five of nine career at-bats against the Cardinals starter.

Wellemeyer	G/Starts	IP	W-L	ERA	WHIP	OBA
Career vs. ChC	5/4	22 2/3	2-2	3.18	1.37	0.256
2008 vs. ChC	4/4	21 2/3	2-2	3.32	1.38	0.256
Career at Wrigley	35/1	61	6-3	5.31	1.48	0.247
Start ‘em
Ryan Theriot	4-for-9 (.444)	3BB
Reed Johnson	5-for-12 (.417)	3K
Joey Gathright	2-for-3 (.667)
Mike Fontenot	2-for-5 (.400)	2BB
Aramis Ramirez	3-for-9 (.333)
Sit ‘em
Kosuke Fukudome	0-for-4 (.000)	1BB
Derrek Lee	2-for-12 (.167)	2K
Alfonso Soriano	2-for-9 (.222)	5K
Geovany Soto	1-for-8 (.125)	2BB, 1K

Programming note

I have agreed to co-host a live blog during Sunday evening’s game with the folks at Baseball Daily Digest. If you want to participate or just look in, here is the link.

The 30-year-old Ludwick was last of five eligible Cardinals players with from just under three to five-plus years of service time to settle, and in the process of doing so, avoided a salary arbitration hearing set for Tuesday in Phoenix, AZ. Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan plus pitchers Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer all previously agreed to terms.

Ludwick’s new deal is for a reported $3.7 million, slightly above the midpoint between the Cardinals’ original offer of $2.8 million and the player’s $4.25 million filing. Ludwick can earn up to an additional $100,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. He can receive $25,000 at 625, another $25,000 at 650 and another $50,000 if he reaches 675.

Making just $421,000 last season, Ludwick’s increase represents a 779% bump over that 2008 take, by far the largest absolute as well as percentage increase among the five.

This was Ludwick’s first year through the process leading up to arbitration and unless he signs a long-term contract first, he could be in a similar place in each of the next two off-seasons. Ludwick will become eligible for free agency for the first time after the 2011 campaign.

The Cardinals avoid hearings if at all possible and have been pretty good at it recently. Their last salary arbitration hearing was held in 1999.

With that, following is a summary of how the Cardinals 2009 arbitration-eligible cases came out. For all intents and purposes, the players always win. The only real suspense is the amounts of their increases.

Only two players, Ankiel and Ludwick, progressed as far as exchanging figures with the club and having hearings scheduled. Wellemeyer and Duncan came to terms on January 19 and Thompson settled the very next day. Just three hours prior to his scheduled hearing last Thursday, Ankiel and the Cardinals also shook hands on a 2009 contract.

In total, the Cardinals will be paying $12,050,000 for the service of these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest contracts.

	2008	2009 estimate	Player	Club	2009 actual	Increase %
Ankiel	$0.975 million	$3.25 million	$3.3 million	$2.35 million	$2.825 million	190%
Duncan	$0.439 million	$1.5 million			$0.825 million	188%
Ludwick	$0.421 million	$4.0 million	$4.25 million	$2.8 million	$3.700 million+	779%
Thompson	$0.414 million	$1.0 million			$0.650 million	57%
Wellemeyer	$1.2 million	$4.0 million			$4.050 million	338%
Total	$3.449 million	$13.75 million			$12.050 million
+ $100K incentives

Any debate over 2009 contracts for members of the Cardinals roster is now officially over. The only other players still unsigned are those with less than three years service time as major leaguers.

That group is obligated to accept whatever amount they are tendered by the club as long as the “offer” exceeds the minimum salary of $400,000 and is at least 80% of the amount earned in the previous season. The players choice is either to accept or not play, yet if they stick around, they too will become eligible for arbitration soon enough.

Look for those business-as-usual announcements early next month.

I was correct on six of the eight, but missed on Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, both of whom were non-tendered by the organization. Randy Flores was also cut loose as expected. Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs last week while Johnson and Flores are free agents.

What’s up now?

For the five Cardinals players remaining, the next window of opportunity began on Monday, January 5. Starting then, these eligible players have ten days to declare their intent to head toward arbitration.

While you may read a lot of hoopla about this filing period, it is merely a formality. All eligible players will certainly file, since in not doing so, they would foolishly give up their arbitration right. (Of course, they could agree to terms on a new contract at any time, which would also take them out of this process.)

What’s on deck?

The next milestone is far more important, as those players who choose to prepare for the possibility of a hearing must exchange 2009 salary figures with their clubs on Monday, January 19.

The player offers his figure, which is almost always highest, and the club presents their amount, the lower of the two. Between then and the actual time of their February arbitration hearing, the two are encouraged to negotiate an agreed-to amount, almost always somewhere in the middle.

In every case, the player will receive a raise. The only question is how much. An important consideration is what other players of comparable results and experience have received in the past. More on that shortly.

In some situations, the sides come to agreement on a multi-year deal instead, but the formal arbitration process is structured around a one-year contract only.

An example of the former is Yadier Molina, who was arbitration-eligible one year ago. Instead of going through the entire process, on January 21st, he and the Cardinals settled on a four-year contract with a fifth option year.

If the two parties can’t come to terms, a three-person arbitration panel will choose one of the two amounts submitted, with no compromise. Supporting arguments are offered by both sides at these hearings, scheduled between February 1 and 21.

Remember that only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, last season, just eight of 110 players who filed went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time.

Forecasting the 2009 Cardinals

So with that backdrop, let’s estimate the potential 2009 value of these five eligible players: Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.

In every case, I will compare the Cardinals’ statistics to players at the same position who had roughly the same service time one year ago. That allows me to use the latter’s 2008 salaries to help estimate what the Cardinals’ 2009 amounts might be.

Remember that I am estimating where the two sides might settle, with the club’s filing potentially lower and the player’s desired amount likely higher. Performance bonuses are included in the Cardinals’ 2008 salaries shown below and could be a contract component for any players that settle prior to arbitration.

When service time is noted, it is listed in “years.days”, where 172 days equals one full season.


Chris Duncan

Though the oft-injured outfielder hasn’t been productive since the early part of 2007, I am comparing his career stats with five other players who were “Super Twos” one year ago. As in the case of all these comparisons, the other players’ numbers listed are their career totals prior to 2008. In other words, their stats at the time they were in the same position as Duncan is now.

Four of the comps are outfielders while the fifth, Casey Kotchman, is a first baseman, a position Duncan also plays at times.

Duncan has demonstrated more power than all the comps, with Jonny Gomes perhaps closest. Yet the Tampa Bay outfielder is a part-timer. The two from the group that were more established starters coming into 2008 were Mark Teahen of the Royals and Ryan Church, then of the Nationals and now of the Mets.

Those two were also the only ones of the five comps who progressed in the arbitration process last year as far as exchanging amounts with their clubs, listed on the far right of the following table. They ended up with salaries in the low $2 millions, while the three others settled for less than $1.5 million last winter.

Because of his injuries and the resulting uncertainty, I would place Duncan’s 2009 value somewhere around $1.5 million.


Ryan Ludwick

The 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner only has two comparable outfielders from last year with between three and four years service. Therefore, I added a third player, Xavier Nady, who had just over four years coming into last season.

Toronto’s Alex Rios is more of a multi-tools guy with a longer track record than Ludwick. Nady is less productive than the Cardinal. Probably the best comp is Colorado’s Brad Hawpe, with a little better batting average and on-base percentage, but a bit less power.

Last year, Hawpe asked for $4.35 million heading into arbitration while the Rockies countered with $3.58 million. The two sides settled on $3.925 million. Hawpe has just one top 25 MVP placement and no All-Star or Silver Slugger-type recognition but has been more consistent over time.

Given that, somewhere around $4 million would seem a good place for Ludwick.


Rick Ankiel

As was the case last year, the uniqueness of Ankiel’s career progression means there are no rock-solid comps for him. Still, there were two MLB-5 outfielders last winter, or three if you count Casey Blake, who is primarily a third baseman but also has played the outfield extensively. For illustration, I added a fourth outfielder, Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer, who was at that time just a couple of weeks short of five years of service.

To be fair to Ankiel, I included his hitting stats only from his time as an outfielder, excluding those from his days as a pitcher. The Cardinal’s slugging is superior to the others, while his average and on-base marks are credible in comparison to them.

In terms of counting stats in a single season, the story is different however. Two of the five have hit as many as 25 home runs as Ankiel did in 2008. That was Craig Monroe’s 28 in 2006 and Blake also with 28 back in 2004. Compared to Ankiel’s 71 RBI last season, Juan Rivera has topped him once, Monroe and Cuddyer twice each and Blake three times.

Ankiel should be able to argue that with more at-bats, he could eclipse the counting stats generated by either Blake or Cuddyer. But that is future potential, not what has been accomplished to date.

While a look forward isn’t fair for this exercise, it is worth looking into Rivera’s situation in a bit more depth. After not quite reaching 300 at-bats in total over the past two seasons due to injury, as a free agent, he recently scored a three-year, $12.75 deal to return to the Angels. Rivera’s 2009 salary will be $3.25 million.

Monroe is currently a free agent and will make considerably less in 2009 than his $3.83 million last season, as his career is on a downward spiral.

For 2009, one might conclude that Ankiel could make as much as Rivera or Monroe, but having not completed more than a full season as an MLB outfielder, not as much as the far more established Cuddyer or Blake. Let’s call it no higher than $3.25 million, since Ankiel’s career number of at-bats remain considerably less than the others.

Of all the estimates, this could be the most volatile. Remember that Ryan Howard made $10 million as a Super Two last year after winning a hearing in which the Phillies had offered $7 million. Is Ankiel worth less than half of that?


Brad Thompson

When choosing comps for the right-handed swingman, I had 25 relievers who were MLB-3’s last year to choose from. I selected the seven who had progressed far enough in the arbitration process to exchange figures with their clubs.

It seems pretty clear that a player like Thompson should expect to make around a million dollars plus or minus. Brad’s ERA tends to the high side and his strikeouts are low, so despite his stingy walk rate, I would aim for an even $1.0 million.

Todd Wellemeyer

Again, this one is a bit tricky since Wellemeyer has over three years as a reliever and less than two as a starter. Given his current role is that of a starter one year from free agency, I used that population. Unfortunately, there was but one MLB-5 starting pitching comp from last season, now-free agent Oliver Perez. I added the three MLB-4 starters from last off-season to fill out the analysis.

Perez is one of the eight players across MLB that actually made it to his hearing, where he defeated his employers at the time, the Mets, to the tune of $6.5 million. Yet it could be argued that Perez is more accomplished than Wellemeyer.

Of the three career starters with one fewer year of total experience, Detroit’s Nate Robertson scored a three-year deal with a $4.25 million salary the first season, while a pair of Brewers, Claudio Vargas and injured Chris Capuano, each ended up with under $4 million.

Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.


Summary

Here are the projected differences in salaries from year-to-year for these five. Who said arbitration isn’t expensive?

If these estimates are anywhere near correct, the Cardinals could end up committing an incremental amount of over $10 million in 2009 just to keep these five players wearing the Birds on the Bat this coming season. On the average, their raises would be just under 300%.


Several tips of the cap are offered. One is to arbitration expert Bill Gilbert, who has provided valuable consulting assistance on the process. Another is to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the source for partial career data, as well as answers to a million other questions, too. Finally, a nod to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, always an invaluable resource.

The two had lost precious ground in their attempts to seize the two left-handed spots in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen and as a result, were among three players non-tendered by the club at Friday’s midnight EST deadline. Infielder Aaron Miles was the other.

There were two other important reasons for these players being cut loose. One is money and the other is roster spots. These players three could have each earned several million via arbitration while there are replacements coming up behind them still making only six figures.

Two lefties gone

Flores, 33, had his time in the St. Louis spotlight, playing a headline role while pitching in 185 games for the Cards from 2005 through 2007, but began to decline in the second half of 2007.

Last season, his fifth in the organization, was a complete washout between injury and ineffectiveness. Flores passed through waivers unclaimed last summer on his way to a demotion to Memphis.

Despite over three years of major league service time, the injury-prone Johnson has only pitched in 77 big-league games. Once a top organizational prospect, the 27-year-old was selected by the Oakland A’s in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft, but was returned to St. Louis during spring training.

Since, he has been slowed by a myriad of arm problems. Johnson’s St. Louis highlight may have been his team-leading ten appearances and four holds during the magical 2006 post-season.

Left-handed relief alternatives aplenty

In recent weeks, the Cardinals have added a host of others from the left side. They include Charlie Manning via waivers from Washington, the former free agent from Tampa Bay, Trever Miller, and minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, also invited to major league camp.

The Cards have stated they are still in search of another lefty, with former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes a prime target. All will compete for likely two roster spots at the major league level this coming spring.

Miles also gone (again)

Of the three non-tenders, Miles was perhaps the biggest surprise, but perhaps not.

The switch-hitting infielder, who will turn 32 on Monday, was in the same situation one year ago and was also non-tendered by the Cardinals. That way, the team could avoid the arbitration process with Miles, where the club could end up being forced to overpay to keep him. Surprisingly, the two sides reunited in January when Miles was given $1.4 million to return to St. Louis for 2008.

After a solid year backing up the middle infield and even getting starts in the outfield, I thought Miles would be asked back in 2009. Perhaps that could still happen, but not via the arbitration process.

Nick Punto: Over $4M per year

Market realities

Though I had projected that the Cardinals would tender Miles a contract, I second guessed myself as recently as Friday. That is when the Minnesota Twins re-signed their utility infielder Nick Punto to an eye-opening two-year, $8.5 million deal.

The 30-year-old Punto, playing a comparable role to Miles for the Twins, has a career line of .252/.319/.332 over the equivalent of roughly five MLB seasons. Miles’ line is .289/.329/.364 over his time with the White Sox, Colorado and the Cardinals.

So, if Punto can fetch $4.25 million per year on a two-year deal, isn’t Miles worth at least $5 million? Considering that view of the current market, I can see why the Cardinals took the cautious route here.

Miles is a handy player to have around, but not at that kind of price.

Infield alternatives

While they may still go outside for a Miles replacement if he does not return, the Cardinals do have alternatives. Several younger, cheaper and less-experienced in-house players already on the 40-man roster include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden and Tyler Greene.

Ryan has the most time in the majors of the three but lacks consistency. That translates into less confidence shown by the coaching staff. The 26-year-old has no minor league options remaining, which means he has to either make the big league club in the spring or pass through waivers before heading back to Triple-A.

The Olympian Barden was originally claimed off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2007 season. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals can decide about the 27-year-old. Last spring, they took him off the 40-man, when he went unclaimed, then later re-added him. Barden has yet to impress in two end-of-season call-ups. Despite a decent season in Memphis, Barden received a grand total of nine September at-bats with St. Louis in 2008. Not inspiring.

Greene, taken just two picks after top organizational prospect Colby Rasmus in 2005, has long been touted for his potential, but had yet to deliver until 2008. The shortstop had a decent season between Springfield and Memphis and for the first time as a professional, was moved all around the infield during his stint in the Arizona Fall League where he looked fine defensively. That tryout was surely not coincidental.

Second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir also still sits on the 40-man roster, likely on the strength of a .407 OBP put up in 2007 between Springfield and Memphis. His 2008 mark was a more realistic .352, but any future shot at St. Louis seems unclear.

What’s next?

All three non-tendered players, Flores, Johnson and Miles, are officially free agents, available to sign with any team with no penalties or restrictions, including the Cardinals – if both sides are willing.

As expected, five other Cardinals were tendered offers for 2009 by the deadline, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson. These players are bound to the Cards for next season, with the amounts of their salaries still to be negotiated over the next two months.

With these moves, the Cardinals 40-man roster is currently at 34 players. This gives the organization plenty of flexibility to make other moves as the 2008-2009 hot stove season continues.

The eight include pitchers Randy Flores, Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson and Todd Wellemeyer, infielder Aaron Miles and outfielders Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick.

Of this group, I project only Flores is at serious risk of receiving his walking papers. Given the left-handers that have been added in recent weeks says nothing good about Flores’ job security. They are minor leaguer Ian Ostlund and 40-man additions Charlie Manning (off waivers from Washington) and free agent Trever Miller (from Tampa Bay).

The Cardinals are still looking for a lefty and a closer. If he is affordable enough, free agent Brian Fuentes could be the man for both job. Add Johnson to the mix and you have potentially six lefties fighting for two or three jobs at most.

That could mean trouble for Flores’ continued employment with the Cardinals.

For more details on the process and my logic on all eight players, check out my free article on Scout.com.