A little over a year ago, last January 3, I published my predictions of what I thought would evolve into the top five stories across the Cardinal Nation in 2009. With the benefit of full hindsight, including the top 20 stories of 2009 countdown finally in the books, this is a look back at my initial forecast.

The original top five projections follow, along with where the stories actually ended up, including links to the before and after articles. I won’t be repeating my 2009 summaries here, so click on the links if you’d like to read the detailed stories.

Generally speaking, none of the five stories I thought would grab the headlines in 2009 turned out to be as big as expected. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Let’s review each as several stories morphed into others.

1. Lame duck La Russa

Oddly enough, unlike in 2007, when Tony La Russa’s expiring contract seemed to hold an unusually-strong level of interest with the local scribes all summer long, it was not nearly as big of an issue in 2009. This was the case despite the fact his contract was again up following the season.

The relative calm may have been due to a combination of several factors, including the fast start of the 2009 team, which went 16-7 in April, as well as a divestiture of several veteran players over the last two years who clashed with the longtime skipper.

Certainly, the saga of the family Duncan (2009 story #12) added to the La Russa uncertainty but also in a way diverted attention from La Russa personally. When push came to shove, Tony took his first-ever one-year contract to return for 2010.

With the controversy over the return of Mark McGwire added to the mix, La Russa’s future should again remain a curiosity during the 2010 season and into the fall.

2. Chris Carpenter’s health

While this was a non-story, a good thing, the fact is that Carpenter’s health was a major factor in 2009. Because the ace missed about five weeks due to an oblique strained in his second start of the season, he ended up making just 28 starts, compared to 32 to 34 for his Cy Young Award competitors.

Those voters who left Carpenter off their ballots entirely cited this as a reason for doing so and this most certainly affected other voters’ placement of Carpenter second or third instead of first or second.

As such, given Carp finished just seven points short of winning his second Cy Young, it is not a stretch at all to say his health cost him the award.

Of course, in the bigger picture, the injury was relatively insignificant. It was early in the season, during a time when the team was consistently winning and most importantly, neither lingered nor was connected to his past shoulder, elbow and nerve ailments. He still won 17 games, second-most in the NL behind teammate Adam Wainwright, and captured the league ERA title.

In his age 35 season, Carpenter’s continued well-being will remain a critical success factor for the 2010 Cardinals.

3.  Calm or chaos at the closer’s position?

Not only was the identity of the 2009 closer unknown last January, it still was unresolved as the season began. The main question was “Which of the young contenders would take the job, Jason Motte or Chris Perez?”

As we quickly learned, the answer was “neither”.

Motte owned the job for one game, a blown save on opening day. Perez was given his chances, but his inconsistency soon put him back in Memphis before being traded away. 36-year-old Ryan Franklin, the last man standing, took over and put together a fantastic season.

Yet a contract extension followed by a final-month failure which continued in the National League Division Series re-opened questions about the stability of the position in 2010. The Cardinals have reportedly assured Franklin that the job is his, but have also expressed concern over his supposed late-season fatigue and have at least thought about other options.

This story may be back in 2010.

4. The future of Rick Ankiel
5. When will Colby Rasmus arrive and who will play centerfield?

These two stories became intertwined. Yet even together, they placed just 16^th in my final countdown.

Compared to the acrimonious end to 2008 spring training for Colby Rasmus, followed by an ineffective and injury-plagued season with Memphis, 2009 seemed calmer for the 22-year-old. His making the big league roster did not seem to be in jeopardy this past spring, but the concern was replaced by an uneasy competition with Rick Ankiel, a stated favorite of his manager and beloved by the fan base for his revival from numerous past setbacks.

As the season went on, illness and fatigue affected Rasmus as injury hampered Ankiel, yet their trajectory was very different. The latter continued in a downward spiral that ended in him leaving via free agency with no real attempt made to keep him after 13 years in the organization.

The former doubled Ankiel’s starts in centerfield, 104 to 52, and was one of the team’s post-season standouts. Rasmus is clearly the present and future, while Ankiel will forever hold memories of the past as well as the wonderment of what might have been.

Next up: In the final article of this series, I will outline my predictions for the top five Cardinals stories of 2010.

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Coming into the 2009 season, no one could have predicted how the St. Louis Cardinals’ centerfield position would play out for long-timer Rick Ankiel and long-awaited rookie Colby Rasmus. With both being left-handed hitters, the situation did not offer traditional platoon potential.

For the record, Rasmus doubled the number of regular season starts at the position and showed a bit more power while Ankiel struck out at a higher rate. Otherwise, their stats are quite comparable.

Ankiel, the incumbent, may be one of the most interesting stories in the long history of the St. Louis franchise. 2009 was his 13^th season in the system, longest of any active Cardinal. Until surpassed by 2009 first-rounder Shelby Miller, Ankiel’s $2.5 million bonus in 1997 was the largest ever awarded by the organization.

His rise to the top of the pitching world while still a teenager, followed by his troubling fall and precarious return to the mound have been well-documented. Talked out of quitting in 2005, Ankiel’s rebirth as an outfielder and triumphant return to the majors over two years later turned stoic manager Tony La Russa into an unabashed cheerleader.

Maintaining momentum remained difficult for the now-30-year-old. His 2008 was cut short due to injury, an abdominal strain that required surgery for a sports hernia in September. He ended the year with career highs of 25 home runs and 71 RBIs in just 120 games despite enduring a severe slump for about a month due to the abdominal injury before finally being sidelined and having surgery.

Hopes were high as Ankiel headed into his final season prior to free agency. After a .772 OPS April, his 2009 was derailed by a horrific collision with the Busch Stadium outfield wall on May 4. Ongoing problems were at least partially attributed to shoulder soreness as Ankiel found Rasmus getting more and more time in center.

Rasmus came into 2009 unsure of anything, starting with whether or not he would make the team, despite comments from the manager that if he did, he would not waste away on the bench. His 2008 with Memphis had been a loss after a poor start then a brief recovery before suffering a knee injury that kept him out of the Futures Game and the Olympics.

At 22 years of age, the organization’s top prospect for the previous three years according to our rankings at Scout.com, Rasmus became the Cardinals’ youngest opening day player since Albert Pujols’ debut eight years prior.

Rasmus would not experience a smooth introduction to the majors. After putting up a first-half OPS of .807 and casting his name among the early favorites for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, Rasmus dropped over 200 points after the break to .592. He dealt with significant weight loss and stamina due to a hiatal hernia and later had to contend with an ongoing heel problem.

The rookie was moved all over the lineup, starting in every spot other than third. Most often, he hit in front of Albert Pujols, limiting his opportunities to demonstrate his base-stealing skills. Rasmus’ 147 games played in total topped all NL rookies in 2009.

Rasmus starts, by lineup position, 2009

As the 2009 season ended, so did the direct competition. The Cardinals made it clear that Ankiel would not be asked back, turning centerfield over to Rasmus for the foreseeable future. Ankiel put an exclamation point on it, slinking away from writers as he cleaned out his clubhouse stall for the last time. Agent Scott Boras is shopping his free agent, with rumors of his demands including a starting role and a multi-year contract for Ankiel.

Where Rasmus will hit in the 2010 order remains an open question, even to La Russa. “He hit in the middle of the lineup, and his average as fourth or fifth hitter was about the same as it was before, maybe even better,” the manager said earlier this month. “I think we’ll see how much he develops and slot him in wherever we need him.”

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Not surprisingly, he struck out, the same outcome as in his ninth-inning appearance in game one. This time, it both ended his year and that of his team.

No one knows what the stoic Ankiel was feeling. Perhaps it was relief.

Getting punched out by opposing hurlers had become an alarming late-season habit for the free agent to be. From September 15 through the end of the regular season, Ankiel had 32 at-bats. He struck out in exactly 50 percent of them, 16, while collecting just six hits (.188).

To help put Ankiel’s recent rate into perspective, Arizona’s Mark Reynolds eclipsed his own Major League record for strikeouts with 223 this season. Reynolds did that in 578 at-bats, fanning 38.6 percent of the time.

Some people suspect that Ankiel’s bone-jarring May 4 collision with the Busch Stadium outfield wall caused a lingering shoulder injury that explains his decline. His stats would suggest otherwise.

At the time of his accident, the left-handed hitter’s line was .247/.326/.395 for an anemic OPS of .721. As a point of comparison, light-hitting former Cardinals outfield reserve So Taguchi has a career .717 OPS. Ankiel’s OPS in his partial 2007 season and in 2008 were .863 and .843, respectively.

So one might conclude that Ankiel had hit the wall even before he hit the wall.

It is fair to note that Ankiel did perform even worse once he returned, ending the season at .231/.285/.387. Though some attribute a loss of playing time to the presence of rookie outfielder Colby Rasmus, the numbers indicate that Ankiel played himself out of full-time duty.

His .672 OPS for the season was actually below that of former teammate Chris Duncan, whose .687 OPS with St. Louis in 2009 bought him a very bumpy ride and eventually a one-month ticket to Pawtucket.

Ankiel, labeled “The Natural” by some due to his considerable athletic ability and his transition from supremely-talented but troubled pitcher to power-hitting outfielder, is the longest-tenured current Cardinals player.

The left-hander signed in 1997, Tony La Russa’s second year with the organization, and made the majors just two years later. Through the ensuing years, Ankiel had a well-publicized meltdown, had to be talked out of quitting, dealt with a challenging position change then several serious injuries and waved off documents that directly connected him with PEDs. Yet the Cardinals and their fans stuck with him for the most part.

Represented by agent Scott Boras, Ankiel has been a free agent twice in the past, but rejoined the Cardinals each time. Perhaps it was partially a return favor for all that had been done for him through the down periods or maybe it was the most comfortable, easiest route to take.

Yet this time feels different. Ankiel is now an established, albeit badly slumping major league outfielder who may have finally worn out his welcome in St. Louis.

La Russa, perhaps Ankiel’s strongest supporter over the years, minimized the chance of the 30-year-old returning to the Cardinals in 2010, reported the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

As I said earlier, no one knows how Ankiel felt in his final at-bat or his view of his impending free agency, for that matter. He made sure of that.

Ankiel reportedly ducked out on waiting reporters at Busch Stadium on Sunday, putting an exclamation point on his Cardinals career. He told those assembled he would answer questions after loading his belongings in his automobile, but instead drove away.

Even to the end, La Russa praised Ankiel, closing a Sunday interview with this assertion.

“There’s nothing about Rick’s game that can’t be fixed.”

That begs the obvious follow on question. “Why wasn’t his game fixed, then?”

I don’t know who should be responsible for “The Natural” turning into “The Noodle” at the plate. Is it beleaguered hitting coach Hal McRae, assistant hitting coach Mike Aldrete or even the boss, La Russa?

Maybe the problem is the player himself. There have been whispers that Ankiel’s difficulties may have been exacerbated by an unwillingness to adapt his batting style to align with coaching suggestions. It is clear his past problems with pitching were not physical.

Whatever the reasons, it has probably reached the point in Ankiel’s career where it would be best for all involved for him to step out of the Cardinals’ protective cocoon and strike out on his own with another organization.

If Ankiel ever returns to Busch Stadium wearing another uniform, just as with former Cardinals like Taguchi, the vast majority of the fans will remember the good times and cheer accordingly.

Best of luck, Rick. We will never stop wondering what could have been.

While it was the 28^th time this occurred for the club in the last 55 years, it is only the second time since the 2006 World Championship season and first time since July, 2007.

What may have been most encouraging was that Albert Pujols was not part of the trifecta. He had been involved in each of the last three three-home run innings collected by the Cardinals.

Ludwick’s Friday grand slam to lead off the run was the first as part of a single-inning three home run performance by the club since Mark McGwire in 1999.

Date	Opp	Inn		BI		BI		BI
6/19/2009	@KC	T3	Ludwick	4	Ankiel	1	K.Greene	1
7/15/2007	@PHI	T7	Pujols	1	Encarnacion	1	Kennedy	1
10/1/2006	MIL	B9	Duncan	1	Pujols	1	Spiezio	1
8/18/2006	@CHC	T7	Pujols	2	Rolen	1	Belliard	2
7/24/2005	CHC	B1	Nunez	1	Edmonds	1	Mabry	1
4/9/2004	@ARZ	T3	Lankford	1	Rolen	2	Sanders	1
7/3/2003	SFG	B2	Renteria	3	Pujols	3	Rolen	1
6/25/2003	CIN	B1	Hart	1	Edmonds	1	Rolen	1
9/20/2002	HOU	B6	Marrero	1	Edmonds	1	Rolen	1
9/19/2002	@COL	T8	Marrero	1	Edmonds	1	Pujols	1
7/2/2002	SDP	B2	Polanco	2	Edmonds	1	Pujols	1
4/13/2000	@COL	T1	Polanco	1	Tatis	1	Edmonds	1
4/6/2000	CHC	B3	Tatis	3	Drew	1	Matheny	1
9/20/1999	@CHC	T7	McGwire	1	Howard	2	Drew	1
9/17/1999	HOU	B4	McGwire	4	Howard	1	Tatis	1
4/23/1999	@LAD	T3	Tatis	4	Marrero	1	Tatis	4
6/3/1997	COL	B5	DeShields	1	Gant	3	Mabry	3
5/14/1997	@PHI	T9	Franklin	1	Gaetti	1	Clayton	2
7/12/1996	@CHC	T5	Lankford	1	Gant	1	Gaetti	2
10/1/1990	@MON	T3	Bry.Smith	2	Gilkey	1	Thompson	1
4/11/1986	MON	B3	McGee	2	Clark	1	Landrum	1
8/22/1980	@ATL	T4	Hernandez	2	Simmons	1	Reitz	3
7/6/1979	@ATL	T4	Reitz	1	Tyson	1	Templeton	1
7/21/1966	ATL	B5	C.Smith	1	Flood	3	Cepeda	1
7/18/1964	NYM	B8	Boyer	4	White	1	McCarver	1
6/27/1962	@CHC	T6	Sawataski	1	Javier	2	Flood	1
6/26/1959	@CIN	T8	Cunningham	1	Boyer	2	Musial	2
7/21/1956	BRO	B8	Sauer	1	H.Smith	1	Musial	2

As always, thanks to Tom Orf for the data pull.

News item: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Chris Carpenter fanned ten Milwaukee batters over eight innings of work on Monday. Teammate Adam Wainwright fell just short the next night, as he retired a personal MLB-best nine Brewers hitters via strikeouts.

Carpenter’s Monday performance was only the second time a St. Louis pitcher has struck out as many opposing hitters in one contest since the start of the 2006 season. Not surprisingly, Carp delivered the previous 10+K outing, too. Back on June 13, 2006, he set his personal single-game high with 13 punchouts at Pittsburgh.

The rarity of such a feat causes the uninformed to nod their heads, noting the oft-discussed pitch-to-contact, groundball philosophy supposedly pushed by the Cardinals organization.

In discussing his long-time pitching coach Dave Duncan, Tony La Russa recently told me this:

“We always laugh when we talk about “The Dave Duncan Style”. It gets talked about a lot here in St. Louis – pitch to ground ball. Dave focuses on the abilities of the pitchers.”

In other words, when Duncan and La Russa are given strikeout pitchers, they are more than happy to take the Ks. In fact, over the first six seasons of this decade, the Cardinals amassed 34 occurrences in which the starter fanned ten or more.

The team’s average from 2000 through 2005 was almost six such games per season but as already noted, there have been just two in the 3 ¼ seasons since.

Not only were each of the Cardinals’ most recent 10K performances registered by Carpenter, but he also owns seven of the team’s last nine such games, going back to his St. Louis debut in the 2004 season. He authored four more during his Cy Young Award campaign in 2005.

Ten or more strikeout games by a Cardinals pitcher by season (2000-2009)

Year	Total	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#
2009	1	Chris Carpenter	1
2008	0
2007	0
2006	1	Chris Carpenter	1
2005	5	Chris Carpenter	4	Mark Mulder	1
2004	3	Chris Carpenter	1	Woody Williams	1	Matt Morris	1
2003	1	Matt Morris	1
2002	4	Matt Morris	2	Chuck Finley	2
2001	7	Matt Morris	4	Darryl Kile	3
2000	14	Rick Ankiel	6	Darryl Kile	5	Andy Benes	3

With his current total of seven 10K games this decade, Carpenter is just one behind the leaders, Matt Morris and the late Darryl Kile. Eight pitchers in total made the list.

Carpenter and Morris have the best single-game performances during the 2000s with 13 strikeouts. Chuck Finley and Mark Mulder each had a 12K outing.

Ten or more strikeout games (2000-2009) with bests by each pitcher

Pitcher	# 10K	Best game
Matt Morris	8	13
Darryl Kile	8	11
Chris Carpenter	7	13
Rick Ankiel	6	11
Andy Benes	3	10
Chuck Finley	2	12
Mark Mulder	1	12
Woody Williams	1	11

You may have noticed the fourth-place leader in the total number of 10K games, the only other one of the eight that is an active major leaguer today. In fact, he remains in the uniform as a current teammate of Carp, retired hurler Rick Ankiel. At the age of 20 and 21, the lefty had the best single-season for such feats during this time when he collected six in 2000 – a reminder of what could have been.

Striking out ten or more does not necessarily guarantee a win for the pitcher or his club. Carpenter has one of the seven losses taken, back in 2004, and two of the six no-decisions in these contests. Overall, the starters are 23-7-6 (.767) in the 10K games.

Pitcher	Win	Loss	No dec	Win pct.
Andy Benes	2	0	1	1.000
Mark Mulder	1	0		1.000
Matt Morris	5	1	2	0.833
Chris Carpenter	4	1	2	0.800
Rick Ankiel	4	1	1	0.800
Darryl Kile	6	2		0.750
Chuck Finley	1	1		0.500
Woody Williams	0	1		0.000
total	23	7	6	0.767

If he continues at his 2009 pace of one such game each fourth start, Carpenter will soon tie and then pass the Cardinals leaders in number of ten strikeout games this decade.

In closing, the individual summaries of the 36 performances follow. Andy Benes’ three 10K outings are especially notable in that they occurred in consecutive starts in June, 2000. The team had five that month as Ankiel and Kile each had one prior to Benes’ run.

Pitcher	Date	Opp	G	StL	Opp	App,	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
Chris Carpenter	5/25/2009	@MIL	L	0	1	GS-8		8	2	0	0	0	10
Chris Carpenter	6/13/2006	@PIT	W	2	1	GS-7	W	7	3	0	0	3	13
Chris Carpenter	8/7/2005	ATL	W	5	3	GS-8		8	4	2	2	2	10
Chris Carpenter	6/25/2005	PIT	W	8	0	SHO9	W	9	4	0	0	0	11
Chris Carpenter	6/14/2005	@TOR	W	7	0	SHO9	W	9	1	0	0	1	10
Mark Mulder	5/9/2005	LAD	W	4	2	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	2	12
Chris Carpenter	4/27/2005	MIL	W	6	3	GS-8	W	7	8	3	3	0	12
Matt Morris	9/3/2004	LAD	W	3	0	SHO9	W	9	2	0	0	0	11
Chris Carpenter	8/26/2004	@CIN	L	0	1	CG 8	L	8	3	1	1	1	11
Woody Williams	8/18/2004	CIN	L	4	5	GS-6	L	6	9	5	5	1	11
Matt Morris	4/5/2003	HOU	L	1	2	GS-8		8	3	0	0	2	10
Chuck Finley	9/1/2002	@CHC	L	4	5	GS-8	L	7	5	5	5	5	12
Chuck Finley	8/21/2002	PIT	W	4	1	GS-8	W	8	3	1	1	2	10
Matt Morris	5/8/2002	@CHC	W	3	2	GS-8	W	8	4	2	2	4	10
Matt Morris	4/23/2002	@NYM	L	3	4	GS-7	L	7	8	4	4	2	10
Matt Morris	10/4/2001	@MIL	W	10	3	GS-6	W	6	3	0	0	3	10
Darryl Kile	9/26/2001	@HOU	W	5	1	GS-7	W	7	4	0	0	2	10
Matt Morris	9/19/2001	MIL	W	8	2	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	1	13
Matt Morris	7/14/2001	DET	W	3	2	GS-8	W	7	5	2	2	2	11
Darryl Kile	6/18/2001	CHC	W	6	2	GS-7	W	7	5	2	2	1	11
Darryl Kile	5/22/2001	@MIL	L	0	5	GS-8	L	7	7	5	4	1	10
Matt Morris	5/2/2001	@FLA	W	4	2	GS-9		8	8	2	1	1	11
Rick Ankiel	9/13/2000	@PIT	W	9	5	GS-7	W	6	7	4	2	0	11
Darryl Kile	9/7/2000	MON	W	6	1	GS-7	W	7	5	1	1	1	10
Rick Ankiel	7/27/2000	ARI	L	5	17	GS-5	L	4	6	6	6	2	10
Rick Ankiel	7/21/2000	@HOU	W	12	1	GS-7	W	7	3	1	1	3	11
Darryl Kile	7/2/2000	HOU	L	3	6	GS-7	L	7	7	5	5	1	10
Andy Benes	6/23/2000	LAD	W	9	6	GS-7		7	5	2	2	3	10
Andy Benes	6/17/2000	@LAD	W	4	3	GS-6	W	6	7	2	2	2	10
Andy Benes	6/12/2000	@SDP	W	7	3	GS-6	W	6	6	3	3	2	10
Darryl Kile	6/7/2000	KCR	W	4	2	CG 9	W	9	7	2	2	1	10
Rick Ankiel	6/4/2000	CLE	L	2	3	GS-5		5	5	2	2	0	11
Rick Ankiel	5/25/2000	FLA	W	7	6	GS-7	W	6	7	4	4	0	11
Darryl Kile	5/23/2000	FLA	W	10	3	GS-8	W	8	4	2	2	3	11
Darryl Kile	4/25/2000	MIL	W	7	2	GS-7	W	7	6	2	2	1	10
Rick Ankiel	4/9/2000	MIL	W	11	2	GS-6	W	6	3	2	2	3	10

Special thanks to statman Tom Orf for collecting this historical data.

1:00 p.m. Announcement of 1:35 p.m. start, but the tarp wasn’t even off yet. Steady rain.

1:30 p.m. Tarp removed, Kyle Lohse pulled from start in favor of Kyle McClellan, who as the union rep was also a part of the decision. New start announced for 2:00.

2:00 p.m. Tarp back on, no announce time. Rain slows shortly after.

2:30 p.m. Nats president Stan Kasten talks with the press. Still wants to try to get game in.

3:15 p.m. Tarp drained off and put back on.

3:30 p.m. Game finally called with no makeup date yet.

3:45 p.m. Rain stopped – at least for a short while.

Tony La Russa spoke with the press prior to Sunday’s game as always. I will forego the details of the discussion about how he wanted to play the game since it is moot.

I will share one comment. One writer asked Tony if the weather dictated any of his line up choices. His reply: “I should put the guys out there I don’t care about?” Then he answered the question with Pujols as the example. “Albert didn’t start yesterday because his legs were achy, but he’s playing today. These guys just have to play under control.”

It is interesting to note the manager’s comments on P.J. Walters, who tossed two innings on Saturday and was the only reliever not “hot” on Sunday. After these comments, the decision was made to send Walters back to Memphis with Brad Thompson returning to St. Louis. Look for that to be announced on Monday.

“He (P.J.) hasn’t thrown the ball as hard in relief, which is a bit surprising. Normally when you only pitch an inning or two, you can really let it go. I still think he’s probably learning the role. He’s got the weapons to do that job. Try to settle into it. He’s a starting pitcher we’re using as an innings guy…. I don’t want to set him back, either. He’s got a chance to pitch in this league.”

When asked about a swap between Walters and Thompson:

“We’re evaluating the roster all the time. I’m not going to get into that daily thing. Start getting him paranoid and getting Thompson’s hopes up. I think Brad pitched a couple of good games but the last one wasn’t as good. He’s just got to take care of his business.”

When asked about whether he’d rather play the other division clubs more often (balanced schedule) in the context of making reschedule of games like Sunday’s easier:

“I don’t spend any time thinking about it. The guys that make the decisions are the ones thinking about it. What good is there to think about it? It doesn’t change anything. What they give us is what you’ve got to play with.”

On the bullpen:

“They’re all settling in, understand what is expected and what they have to do. They’re making some progress. What I think about the bullpen is what I think about the whole club. If we don’t improve – if this is the best we play all year – it won’t be good enough. We’ve got to improve.

“When we came out of spring training, I had an idea, Dunc had an idea what Chris (Perez) had to do to get better. Every one of those guys. At the beginning of the season, you see what’s working. Keep tweaking it. Pat them on the back when they do well. That stuff never changes.

“It’s a long season and they each have adjustments. They’ve each had enough success, they feel like they could be a contributor. I don’t think anybody is scared to go out there.”

On the aftermath of Rick Ankiel’s crash into the wall Saturday:

“I know he had a whiplash. I didn’t know if he was going to be able to go today, but he said he was good to go.”

On the ideal back up catcher:

“A guy that understands and accepts his role. A guy that takes a lot of interest and pride in working with a staff. To know it’s the responsibility of the catcher to get something out of the pitching staff that day. A guy that is going to work well with the regular catcher – not sitting there eating his heart out that the other guy will go 0-for-4 or 0-for-12 so he can play.

“The only thing that could make Jason (LaRue) a better fit for us is if he hit left-handed. But that’s not really important. Jason LaRue is everything you want to look for. He catches great. He throws well. Between him and Yadi (Molina), they’re tough to run on. He’s a veteran, a winner.

“A dad comes up to me and asks me how his kid should get noticed. I tell him to be a catcher. That’s the way to get to the big leagues,” said the manager.

I spoke with P.J. Walters about his successful ninth-inning stint on Thursday. He and Ryan Franklin warmed up with Walters coming in since it is a non-save situation. P.J. says he can warm up quickly and can pitch on consecutive days as he did with State College back in 2006. Yet he is the only reliever shown as not available on Tony La Russa’s Friday lineup card.

Speaking of Franklin, La Russa finally broke down and admitted what we all could see. “At this point, he is the closer…. He was always the guy,” pronounced the skipper.

Spoke with Walters and Jason Motte about eyeglasses. Jason wears his trademark prescription specs on the mound and likes them because he can see all angles. P.J. had LASIK surgery two years ago and is very pleased with it, noting he experienced immediate improvement. Motte said he considered the procedure only for “a split second”. I may be a wimp, but I agree with him.

La Russa had penciled Jason LaRue into the lineup initially because catcher Yadier Molina “had a tough night, threw up” on Thursday. Yet when Yadi reported to the park, he told the skipper he was ok to go.

Thursday night’s home plate ump Jim Reynolds was not as fortunate. Beaned by a Blaine Boyer warmup pitch, he was unable to answer the bell on Friday. Substitute umpire Kevin Causey took over at third.

La Russa noted that his team’s fast start “has to do with what the players put in during spring training“ both in terms of drills and game experience.

TLR on Todd Wellemeyer (pre-game): Not as sharp as he can be. Will get better and better as he goes on.

TLR on Rick Ankiel: Once he is sharp, he is a potent bat. Started out ok but not surging as well as Ryan or Chris. He can be a number four hitter in MLB. Last three game key hits means he gets another start. Really been overtrying. When he relaxes more, he has better focus.

TLR on Khalil Greene: Emergency player in the field only for the remainder of this series. Injury to throwing arm, but no consideration of DL because he is pretty good pinch-hitter.

Khalil spoke about the role of being a pinch-hitter actually requires him to concentrate more over the details of the game from the bench than when he is actually playing. He watches the status of the pitchers on both sides so he is not surprised when he is given the heads-up to get ready. When he is in the game, he is less focused on the opposing pitcher, since he figures he will be hitting either way.

As a result, Tyler Greene is again getting the start in day two of his MLB career. Having been a little busy, he was unaware of the other shortstop moves in the system resulting from his promotion. Tyler concurred that the Double-A step Pete Kozma is making is the toughest due to better control and fewer mistakes by pitchers at that level.

K. Greene told me that in his first impression, he likes the new ballpark in DC. He was injured when the Padres traveled there last season and was not with the team. Khalil also liked the hitting background in the old RFK Stadium despite its large dimensions.

TLR on playing Joe Thurston vs. Brian Barden at third: Jokingly flipped an imaginary coin. Seriously, he mentioned he looks at how the opposing pitchers perform against right-handed batters (like Barden) and left-handed (Thurston). Both will continue to play a lot. Need extra pen man with 35 games in 36 days to start season.

TLR on his emergency catcher: “Probably one of the young, aggressive guys, maybe Thurston.” He said a definitive “no” when I jokingly suggested former catcher Motte.

Thursday’s winning pitcher Chris Perez says his heel still is giving him no problems at all, but expects his spring training shot will wear off soon. When he feels pain again, the plan is to do the injection on an off day.

On all the televisions in the clubhouse was the Marlins-Cubs game. I happened to catch Denise Richards do such a terrible rendition of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” that it made Ozzy seem good.

A team official noted the club has sold about 29,000 full and partial season tickets, which was kept flat by the added attraction of the 2009 All-Star Game. As noted elsewhere, the higher revenue premium tickets and corporate spending are down.

Mitchell Boggs was not surprised by his nine strikeouts Friday as he noted the Nationals are an aggressive team. He was surprised when I told him that he took over the 2009 team single-game lead from Walters, who had seven against the Cubs. Mitchell noted that he expects Adam Wainwright to claim the lead sometime very soon.

Albert Pujols mentioned his wife Deidre is heading to the Dominican Republic later this month to deliver the rest of the 200 beds he is donating to needy families.

I mentioned to Ryan Ludwick Thursday evening that La Russa said he would be starting here on Friday. Ryan said he expected it, but admitted that in the two games in Atlanta, he did not feel good at all.

Forgot to mention that Chris Duncan almost choked on his chewing gum in the dugout before the game. I asked him how many months it has been since he used tobacco. He counted out to nine. Great for him! Duncan took a lot of heat in some quarters for his use, so he deserves kudos for quitting.

Wellemeyer credited Dave Duncan with a mechanical adjustment with his hips that he said helped with his better outing on Friday.

Of course, the four are incumbents Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan along with rookie Colby Rasmus. Ludwick is coming off a rough spring, while Ankiel and Duncan each missed the end of the 2008 season due to surgeries and though he remains one of the top prospects in baseball, Rasmus is unproven at the major league level.

The simple math says that to share playing time equally, one outfielder is going to sit every fourth day. Coming into Sunday’s final game of the Houston Astros series which ended the initial seven-game homestand, Ankiel led the group with 20 at-bats. Guess which one of the four didn’t start on Easter?

Through the first two series, here is how the at-bats have been distributed:

Ankiel 20

Duncan 20

Ludwick 18

Rasmus 18

With three middle infield reserves on the roster, Skip Schumaker has been serving as the defacto fifth outfielder. The starting second baseman has been moved to the outfield late in games as the manager puts in a more experienced defender at the second base position while trying to protect a lead.

No matter which outfielder’s name is not written in the starting lineup on any given day, there is going to be a segment of fans in disagreement.

Some want to see Ankiel as an every-day regular, always positioned in centerfield. Many believe Ludwick’s right-handed RBI bat has to be written on the lineup card in ink. Others point to a rejuvenated Duncan and want his power production in left while a vocal group view Rasmus as the club’s best and most athletic option in center.

Each of them has a good case, but so far, La Russa is sticking to his plan. With the Cardinals enjoying a 5-2 break out of the gate that represents the best record in the National League Central Division, it seems to be working for now.

Right field footnote: Coming off his All-Star, Silver Slugger Award 2008 campaign, right fielder Ludwick’s presence in the outfield rotation may be the one of the four drawing the most criticism of La Russa’s approach.

As a point of reference, Tom Orf recently sent me the following, which documents the Cardinals opening day right fielder over the last quarter century and concludes it is a position of high turnover.

Since George Hendrick started five straight opening days (1980-84), no one has started more than two opening days with 19 total different players in the 25 years starting opening day in right field.

Even if you go back 50 years, the next most opening day starts in right field is just three, by Reggie Smith (1974-76) and Joe Cunningham (1959-61).

The 30-year-old Ludwick was last of five eligible Cardinals players with from just under three to five-plus years of service time to settle, and in the process of doing so, avoided a salary arbitration hearing set for Tuesday in Phoenix, AZ. Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan plus pitchers Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer all previously agreed to terms.

Ludwick’s new deal is for a reported $3.7 million, slightly above the midpoint between the Cardinals’ original offer of $2.8 million and the player’s $4.25 million filing. Ludwick can earn up to an additional $100,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. He can receive $25,000 at 625, another $25,000 at 650 and another $50,000 if he reaches 675.

Making just $421,000 last season, Ludwick’s increase represents a 779% bump over that 2008 take, by far the largest absolute as well as percentage increase among the five.

This was Ludwick’s first year through the process leading up to arbitration and unless he signs a long-term contract first, he could be in a similar place in each of the next two off-seasons. Ludwick will become eligible for free agency for the first time after the 2011 campaign.

The Cardinals avoid hearings if at all possible and have been pretty good at it recently. Their last salary arbitration hearing was held in 1999.

With that, following is a summary of how the Cardinals 2009 arbitration-eligible cases came out. For all intents and purposes, the players always win. The only real suspense is the amounts of their increases.

Only two players, Ankiel and Ludwick, progressed as far as exchanging figures with the club and having hearings scheduled. Wellemeyer and Duncan came to terms on January 19 and Thompson settled the very next day. Just three hours prior to his scheduled hearing last Thursday, Ankiel and the Cardinals also shook hands on a 2009 contract.

In total, the Cardinals will be paying $12,050,000 for the service of these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest contracts.

	2008	2009 estimate	Player	Club	2009 actual	Increase %
Ankiel	$0.975 million	$3.25 million	$3.3 million	$2.35 million	$2.825 million	190%
Duncan	$0.439 million	$1.5 million			$0.825 million	188%
Ludwick	$0.421 million	$4.0 million	$4.25 million	$2.8 million	$3.700 million+	779%
Thompson	$0.414 million	$1.0 million			$0.650 million	57%
Wellemeyer	$1.2 million	$4.0 million			$4.050 million	338%
Total	$3.449 million	$13.75 million			$12.050 million
+ $100K incentives

Any debate over 2009 contracts for members of the Cardinals roster is now officially over. The only other players still unsigned are those with less than three years service time as major leaguers.

That group is obligated to accept whatever amount they are tendered by the club as long as the “offer” exceeds the minimum salary of $400,000 and is at least 80% of the amount earned in the previous season. The players choice is either to accept or not play, yet if they stick around, they too will become eligible for arbitration soon enough.

Look for those business-as-usual announcements early next month.

While in the Dominican, among the WBC players with whom Pujols worked out was embattled New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, the current flashpoint for an entire generation of baseball’s mistakes. The two are pictured here together on February 3 of this year.

The world’s desire for juicy tidbits to report on the situation has meant everyone from Yankees captain Derek Jeter to the most obscure clubhouse boys are getting microphones pushed in their face, looking for any kind of A-Rod reaction.

Jeter, who became very savvy with the New York press as a survival vehicle, has made it clear he is not going to discuss Rodriguez until all reporters have arrived in Yankees camp.

He is really smart. Like A-Rod himself, just cover it once and try to move on.

What about Pujols?

Like seemingly every one of the 2000 or more players that will be reporting to WBC and major league spring training camps this coming week, the Cardinals star was asked while in Kansas City to comment on the scandal.

Being the wary individual that he is, Pujols answered, but didn’t.

“I’m making no comment about that,” Pujols told the Kansas City Star.

Of course, Albert couldn’t stop there. He had to say a bit more to qualify himself.

“That’s one thing I learned. Every time I say something, if I try to stick (up) for one side, they always try to throw me in the heap. So I don’t want to comment on that,” Pujols wisely observed.

He probably should have stopped there.

The final sentence of the quote was clearly well-intended, but seems naive.

“I’m just glad nobody on my team has had problems with that,” was Pujols’ conclusion.

Now, I interpret that to mean that Pujols is simply relieved that none of his Cardinals teammates are in today’s news for steroids-related transgressions. That way, Albert won’t have to deal with the numerous associated distractions as he prepares for the 2009 season.

I get that.

I am not picking on Albert’s words here, but using them to make another related point.

One might make another interpretation from the remarks that the Cardinals have been conflict-free with regard to steroid-related accusations.

Nothing could be further from the truth. It’s just that the news is yesterday’s, not today’s.

At least three stalwarts on the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals have been in the news in recent times for steroids-related issues. They include reliever Ryan Franklin, outfielder Rick Ankiel and third baseman Troy Glaus.

While with Seattle, Franklin was suspended for ten games during the 2005 season for violating MLB’s joint drug prevention and treatment program. He denied any knowledge.

“There’s got to be a flaw in the system. I have no clue. I tested in [early] May and again three weeks later. The first was positive, the second was negative,” Franklin said at the time.

I am unaware of any more recent accusations against him.

In 2007, Ankiel was identified as having received a year’s supply of human growth hormone in 2004 from an internet pharmacy under investigation. Ankiel stated that any medications he took were prescribed by his physicians.

As part of the same 2007 disclosures, Glaus, a former World Series MVP and four-time All-Star, was fingered as having received multiple shipments of performance-enhancing drugs in 2003 and 2004 via a California anti-aging clinic, filled by the same Florida pharmacy linked to Ankiel.

Both the Franklin and Glaus incidents allegedly occurred before they joined St. Louis, information the club was aware of before bringing the players in. Yet there are others accused that may have been Cardinals at the time of use, but have since moved on.

I bring this up not to dredge up old dirt, but to remind us of the pervasive nature of baseball’s problem.

So maybe none of Albert’s teammates have problems in the headlines today, but what about the other 103 players who tested positive in the 2003 supposedly-anonymous testing?

Given there are 30 teams in Major League Baseball, sheer probability would indicate that three or four Cardinals could be among those 103 still unnamed offenders. They might be players already knocked down, or there could be other hidden surprises.

Here is hoping that those names are not released and baseball can move ahead to try once again to heal its newly-reopened wounds.

Here is hoping that Pujols’ relief over the fact that his teammates names (or his own) are not on the front pages continues.

On the other hand, anyone, whether players, officials, fans, broadcasters, or writers who think an A-Rod-like mess couldn’t happen on “their” team today, tomorrow or next week are completely out of touch with reality.

That represents the midpoint between the $3.3 million Ankiel and agent Scott Boras requested and the $2.35 million the Cardinals originally offered. The 29-year-old pitcher-turned-outfielder hit 25 home runs in 413 at-bats in his first season as a full-time outfielder in the majors in 2008. The left-handed hitter can become a free agent following the 2009 season.

Even in compromise, Ankiel came out a winner. The increase of $1.85 million is 190%, or just under twice the amount of his 2008 salary of $975,000. Put another way, Ankiel came just $100,000 short of tripling his previous season’s pay.

In a press release Thursday, Cardinals’ Vice President/General Manager John Mozeliak said, “We are excited to get this deal done and put the process behind us. Everyone felt that this agreement was fair to both parties and we can now look forward to another strong season of play from Rick.”

I am surprised, but positively so. I had expected the two sides to battle it out and let the arbiters decide. Instead, settling at the midpoint seems most fair for both sides. It is refreshing to see the arbitration process work as designed – to encourage compromise rather than conflict.

Outfielder Ryan Ludwick is the last of the five Cardinals arbitration-eligible players to come to terms. His hearing is scheduled in Phoenix next Tuesday, February 17. Ludwick has requested $4.25 million while the Cardinals have offered $2.8 million.

Kennedy second-guessing

Many fans and columnists are confused by the decision and/or the timing of the release of second baseman Adam Kennedy by the Cardinals. I am not among them.

Tony La Russa apparently wanted Kennedy gone since before the holidays as he was concerned about a potential disruption in camp, with a competition coming for the second base job. Over the winter, the organization continued to try to get some value for the player, which makes sense given they owe him $4 million on the third and final year of his current contract. But with spring training just a week away, the club finally had to cut bait. Both views seem reasonable to me.

Kennedy has a good glove, but he is not alone in that. His offense is considerably below MLB average and for that reason, I am not sad to see him go. My only wish is that the Cardinals could have gotten something from Kennedy very early in the off-season. Before Arizona signed Felipe Lopez, there were rumors they were interested in Kennedy. Had that deal been done, perhaps either Lopez or Aaron Miles would still be Cardinals.

As I said yesterday, considering where things are now, let the kids fight it out during camp and if no one emerges, make a move late in March.

Weaver hanging on

Former Cardinals pitcher Jeff Weaver signed a minor league deal to return to the Dodgers, his home in 2004 and 2005. The contract is reportedly worth $500,000 if he makes the team. The 33-year-old right-hander split his time between Triple-A clubs for Milwaukee and Cleveland last summer, posting an ERA over six.

Most fans know the story of how the Cards rescued the former Tiger and Yankee off the Angels’ scrap heap after the latter club bumped Jeff in favor of his brother Jered. While Jeff Weaver went just 5-4, 5.18 to end the 2006 season for the Cards, he came up big in the post-season, going 3-2, 2.43 and winning the final game of the World Series.

As a result, he received an offer to return to St. Louis for 2007, but instead agent Scott Boras guided Weaver to Seattle, where a large mushroom cloud was soon sighted. It doesn’t seem to me that Boras cares about the fact that the most money isn’t always the best answer.

Looper to slide with Bernie Brewer

After being seemingly everyone’s second choice all winter, former Cardinals reliever-turned-starter Braden Looper is joining the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers rotation, joining former teammate Jeff Suppan.

The deal is reportedly a most reasonable one for the club, at one year, $4.75 million with a mutual option for 2010. Looper can choose to return to free agency after this coming season, giving him a chance to get back in the market if it improves. If Milwaukee declines the 2010 option and Looper accepts, he’ll be bought out for a lower amount. Looper’s 2010 salary has not been disclosed nor whether any incentives exist in the contract.

Somewhere, likely en route to spring training, Kyle Lohse is grinning again. Here’s hoping (again, still) that Chris Carpenter is going to be ok.

Pujols still standing behind his trainer

As the Alex Rodriguez furor continues, I ran across a very small Albert Pujols news item. The St. Louis Cardinals first baseman is hosting a hitting clinic this Thursday in the Kansas City area.

The site is a place called Millhouse AEP, an athletic training center focusing on strength and conditioning. Its owner is Chris Mihlfeld, also known as Pujols’ personal trainer and a friend of the star since his time at Maple Woods Community College ten years ago.

It is great to see that Albert is still standing behind his friend, the victim of a most unfortunate and unwarranted attack on his reputation back in 2006 that also attempted to wrongly smear Pujols’ name.

The website Deadspin published and later was forced to retract an unfounded accusation that Mihlfeld supplied PEDs to former pitcher Jason Grimsley. The photo in the article and much of the bad press that followed was directed at Pujols, an entirely innocent third party, but obviously a much bigger name to drag through the mud.

And folks wonder why mainstreamers like Bob Costas come out against internet writers for lack of accountability. (OK, so Costas’ comments overall were pretty ridiculous, but reports like the Mihlfeld one from sites that feature frathouse-type humor to try to appear edgy help no one that cares about credibility.)

Nick the backstop

In case you missed it, add one more player to the round about position changes underway in Cardinals spring training camp. The Post-Dispatch reported that GM John Mozeliak has announced that outfielder Nick Stavinoha is undergoing a position move to catcher.

Joe Strauss notes that the strong and stocky-built 26-year-old was an all-state catcher in high school in Houston. However, 2002 was a long time ago and there is a huge gap between high school and the major leagues.

Yet in the outfield, Stavinoha has not been mentioned among the top tier of candidates for a major league berth in 2009. He was likely destined for a return to Memphis, where outfield at-bats will be a fought-for commodity. Though he punished the ball in Triple-A last season, Stavinoha’s 57 at-bat MLB debut yielded a very soft .193/.217/.211 line.

Flores hopes for health, humidor

Jettisoned Cards left-handed reliever Randy Flores signed a one-year, $600,000 contract to return to his 2002 club, the Colorado Rockies. Coming off shoulder surgery, it is unclear when Flores will actually be ready to pitch. He has an out in his contract that he can exercise by April 30 if he is not in the majors.

Ankiel, Boras heading toward arbitration

I thought I had covered this ad nauseum, but the Cardinals and Rick Ankiel, represented by agent Scott Boras, are meeting Thursday in Phoenix to present their cases to a three-person panel of arbiters. The subject is whether Ankiel’s 2009 salary should be $2.35 million or $3.3 million.

Expect the decision to be made public on Friday. To this point, the players and clubs are 1-1 this winter, with Tampa Bay defeating catcher Dioner Navarro while pitcher Shawn Hill won his case against the Washington Nationals.

Cards outfielder Ryan Ludwick’s hearing is this coming Tuesday, the 17^th.

Update: The Post-Dispatch identified local attorney Hal Wellford as the individual assisting Assistant GM John Abbamondi in presenting the Cardinals case. Here is a link to Wellford’s resume.

Three more spring invites

The Cards have invited three more pitchers to their big league camp, according to Dustin Mattison at Whiteyball.com. Left-handers Brad Furnish and Katsuhiko Maekawa plus right-hander Shaun Garceau get to experience the excitement of their first major league spring training with the Cardinals, but shouldn’t plan on staying long.

Garceau and Furnish will be Rule 5-eligible this winter if not added to the 40-man roster. With so many in a similar situation, that is far from assured. The Japanese native Maekawa is a recent signee with a checkered past, both on and off the field.

Venezuelan winter update

Over at Cardinals Best News Links, Josh Jones is continuing his Cardinals winter league recaps with the prospects that competed in Venezuelan League this winter.

Bo Hart for Valentine’s Day

Two Bo Hart references here in as many days. Let’s get camp underway!

In a February 14-themed feature, a Chicago writer recapped the former Cardinals second baseman’s 2008 season in independent ball.

2008 season summary video

MLB.com has posted a free three-and-a-half minute video summary of the 2008 Cardinals season. It is worth a quick watch as a refresher, though of course, the negatives are glossed over as having been injury-driven.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the club’s arbitration record since the process began. While most who watch this area may be familiar with the fact that the club last went to hearing in 1999, when they defeated pitcher Darren Oliver and his agent Scott Boras, the Cardinals’ history in arbitration goes back much farther.

Fortunately, the late Doug Pappas, long-time chairman of SABR’s Business of Baseball Committee, kept detailed hearing records all the way back to 1974. The basics of what follows is sourced from his work.

Since the process began, there have been almost 500 arbitration hearings across MLB. Of course, many more players filed, but came to terms prior to the actual date. As one of 30 clubs now (though there were fewer teams back in 1974) one might expect the Cardinals to have had no more than about 3% of the cases. That is the approximate actual number, 15. The club’s record against players is very close to the overall MLB historical mark, around 60%.

Through 2008	Hearings	Club win	Player win	% club win
MLB	484	279	205	58%
Cardinals	15	9	6	60%
StL percent of MLB	3.1%	3.2%	2.9%

However, most of these Cardinals cases were held during the 1980s, nine of the 15 to be precise. Five more followed in the 1990s, but four of them occurred prior to 1995. Since then, there has been just one, Oliver.

Cardinals cases	Hearings	Club win	Player win	% club win
1970′s	1	0	1	0%
1980′s	9	6	3	67%
1990′s	5	3	2	60%
2000′s	0	0	0	NA

Gregg Jefferies: Last to beat the Cards in arbitration (Getty Images/Stephen Dunn)

Ironically, the busiest year for the club was at the end of the boom. In 1994, three players went to arbitration, with the club going 2-1. They lost to first baseman Gregg Jefferies (pictured) and defeated starter Bob Tewksbury and third baseman Todd Zeile. As a result, Jefferies holds the distinction of having been the last player to defeat the Cardinals in a hearing.

And here we sit today, with two players heading toward a showdown with the club over their 2009 salary amounts. The Cardinals could double their total number of hearings in the last 15 years over the span of just six days later this month.

Below are the detailed hearing results, offering a most interesting view of how salaries have risen over the years.

As you will see, some of the most prominent stars of the club during the 1980s and early 1990’s participated in the process – Ozzie Smith, Danny Cox, Jose Oquendo, Vince Coleman and Terry Pendleton among them.

Having just returned to the Cards from the Mets in the Joe Torre trade, pitcher Ray Sadecki was the first-ever case for the club back in 1975. On one hand, the difference between the two sides was just $5,000. On the other hand, it was about 10% of the player’s salary – an amount worth fighting for. The left-hander was traded to Atlanta just three months after winning his case.

In the table, I added to Pappas’ base data the date when each player last suited up for the Cardinals and how he left. There were rumors that some owners did not take kindly to players fighting them over salary. If only the arbitration process had existed in 1972, another lefty, Steve Carlton, might have become a Hall of Famer as a Cardinal instead of as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

I include that information not because there is any proven correlation between an arbitration case and the player leaving St. Louis.

Yet do pay special attention to the timing of trade activity, especially in the early years of arbitration. Four of the first five players that took the Cardinals to arbitration didn’t even last through that season before having to pack their bags. Later, the players exerted their financial independence via free agency.

Even as trade rumors swirled around both Ludwick and Ankiel this winter, this data is offered as an interesting conversation piece about which to speculate over what might have been.

Year		Player*	Club*	Club win	Player win	% club win	Left StL	Reason
1975	Ray Sadecki	52	47		X		May-75	traded
1980	Will McEnaney	125	65	X			Mar-80	released
1981	Tony Scott	225	180		X		Jun-81	traded
1982	Ozzie Smith	750	450	X			Sep-96	retired
1983	Doug Bair	450	325		X		Jun-83	traded
1983	Lonnie Smith	580	500	X			May-85	traded
1986	Ricky Horton	275	215		X		Feb-88	traded
1987	Danny Cox	875	600	X			Oct-90	free agent
1988	Jose Oquendo	360	275	X			Sep-95	retired
1989	Vince Coleman	950	775	X			Nov-90	free agent
1990	Terry Pendleton	1850	1000		X		Nov-90	free agent
1994	Gregg Jefferies	4600	3700		X		Oct-94	free agent
1994	Bob Tewksbury	4500	3500	X			Oct-94	free agent
1994	Todd Zeile	3250	2700	X			Jun-95	traded
1999	Darren Oliver	4150	3550	X			Oct-99	free agent
total				9	6	60%
2009	Rick Ankiel	3300	2350
2009	Ryan Ludwick	4250	2800
	* amounts in $K

You heard it here first. The dates for the arbitration hearings for St. Louis Cardinals outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick have been set. In a schedule that only MLB could devise, the two hearings will be held in Phoenix five days apart – on February 12 (Ankiel) and February 17 (Ludwick).

If I was a betting man, I would put my money on February 12 happening while the 17^th would be made unnecessary by a pre-hearing agreement with Ludwick. Whether the latter would be a simple one-year deal or a multi-year contract is unclear.

The last arbitration hearing the Cardinals actually had, back in 1999, they defeated agent Scott Boras on behalf of pitcher Darren Oliver. This time, Boras represents Ankiel, the pitcher-turned outfielder. The two sides come in separated by almost $1 million in their respective views of the player’s 2009 value.

More information from my previous reports here and here. (Also be sure to read the comments below the posts.)

Korean is day-to-day, just like the rest

Regarding the contract of Hyang-Nam Choi, the 37- (or 38) year-old reliever from Korea signed by the Cardinals (reports vary on his exact age), a Korean news source reported the deal is a month-to-month agreement, somehow implying out-of-the-ordinary terms that put the import on less-firm ground than his minor league counterparts.

Not so.

Choi is signed to a standard one-year Memphis contract, and will be in minor league camp when it opens on Monday, March 9. The “monthly” aspect is standard for all minor league contracts, in that players are paid a monthly amount, rather than having it expressed as an annual salary.

Apparently the Korean writer was unfamiliar with that. That’s ok, as many of us Americans are confused by Korean names. Choi is the player’s family name followed by his given name, listed as Choi Hyang-nam in Korean sources.

Think Hee-Seop Choi, the then-Dodgers Korean first baseman whose 2005 collision with Scott Rolen‘s shoulder changed everything. On the other hand, let’s not think about that after all.

Also, Choi the pitcher has been added to my Cardinals roster matrix as its 307^th player.

Rosenthal: Cards out of money

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports had this sobering comment about the Cardinals in a Wednesday column.

“Club officials are telling agents that they are out of money, a stunning development considering that the team will host the All-Star Game this season.”

The reporter speculates that ticket sales and revenues are not being boosted by the presence of the All-Star Game and that the Cards are not in the hunt for free agent Braden Looper, or apparently anyone else that requires a major league salary.

I haven’t revisited the math of the Cardinals total payroll with a set roster, but it would seem to be somewhere in the low $90 millions, which could be as much as a 10% reduction from 2008. Of course, as noted above, Ankiel’s and Ludwick’s salaries could swing the 2009 total by as much as $2.4 million one way or the other.

Gorgen’s shoulder surgery?

Via a post on a social networking site (nothing seems to be private anymore), our Scout.com Cardinals Minor League Rookie Pitcher of the Year with Batavia last season, Scott Gorgen, mentioned recently that he required surgery on his shoulder. I have not yet been able to reach the 22-year-old right-hander to confirm this but I will post if so.

Since the Cardinals have not yet received their signed HIPAA waiver forms which enable them to discuss 2009 player injuries, the organization is unable to comment publicly at this time.

Houston Justice served

In case you missed this good news story the other day, Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle, writing for the Sporting News, offers a positive spin on the 2009 Cardinals. It is nice to see from a writer from an opposing city, especially considering some of the biased junk that has come out of Chicago in recent years.

Justice should have a good eye for bad situations as the Astros have decimated their once-strong farm system both in staff and players and despite finishing just ahead of the Cardinals last year, are an organization seemingly trending in the wrong direction.

I took answering the question from the perspective of the club. My somewhat curt reply was that I am not concerned about Boras in arbitration, but do fear him in an even more important role – the one he will be playing for Ankiel after the 2009 season – as the representative of a free agent.

In that act, Boras can play clubs off against each other by inflating the value of offers and the number of suitors pursuing his client and if necessary, even burn some bridges to get the best possible deal. While there are rules governing the free agent process, the freedom is there to decide where to go, how much to ask and how many years to demand.

And if the situation warrants, the criteria can change at a moment’s notice. Just ask Boston owner John Henry how he feels about the recent Mark Teixeira negotiations. From the Boston Herald last month:

“The Sox, meanwhile, are, at least for now, done with Boras. One well-placed source said the club will never deal with him again unless it can be guaranteed that talks are being conducted honestly. We would take that threat a little more seriously if Boras’ clientele list were to shrink dramatically, but since that is not realistic, we will take it as a sign of just how badly the club felt it got stung by lies from Boras. They are in a “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me” mode right now, with the Teixeira talks feeling like the last straw to them.”

On the other hand, the original question asked me was not about free agency, where Boras’ force is unquestioned. After all, like it or not, barely one month later, these same Red Sox are reportedly close to a two-year deal for their captain, Jason Varitek. Guess who represents the catcher?

Back to the point. The thinking behind my original reply was that the arbitration process has a very defined set of rules that limit the amount of “creativity” possible, even for an agent as notorious as Boras. The two salary amounts for the arbiters to consider – player and club – have already been set. The one-year term is also fixed.

All that remains are the cases the respective agent and club can make in support of their position at the hearing. Boras can come into the room with his famous binders stuffed full of persuasive information, but many clubs are skilled in presenting arbitration cases, too.

As an aside, remember that player and club can come to terms on any deal of any duration before the February arbitration hearing. In fact, that is what usually happens.

Only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, just eight of 110 players who filed last year went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time. The Cardinals haven’t participated in a hearing in ten years.

On Monday morning, I read this article about Tal Smith Enterprises, where the owner, also a long-time Houston Astros executive, discussed his role representing clubs in arbitration hearings. Smith said with an apparent straight face that he doesn’t keep score (yeah, right!), but knows that over the years he is batting over .500.

That renewed my interest in this article. As such, I decided I should analyze the data and determine if my original knee-jerk answer in not fearing Boras in arbitration is supportable. With hearing results from The Biz of Baseball website coupled with player-agent information already in hand, I looked at the last six years of arbitration hearings in terms of winners and losers.

Over the most recent six years, players have won just over one third, 34%, of the hearings. I guess, just like a good hitter, an average of .333 has to be considered pretty respectable.

I then split out the non-Scott Boras clients from the Boras ones. Over the six years, Boras had eight of the 38 hearings. First, here are the year-to-year results for the non-Boras clients.

Excluding Boras	Cases	Club win	Player win	Player %
2008	6	5	1	17%
2007	7	4	3	43%
2006	4	3	1	25%
2005	2	2	0	0%
2004	6	3	3	50%
2003	5	3	2	40%
Total	30	20	10	33.3%

The players won exactly one-third of the time, 10 of the 30 hearings held from 2003 through 2008.

Now, looking at the Boras subset, we see that his record is slightly better on behalf of his clients compared to the other agents at 37.5 percent, but remember that we are talking about a population of just eight cases. Just more one win turned to loss or vice-versa would swing the result wildly, from 25% to 50%.

Boras	Cases		Club win		Player win	Player %
2008	2	1	Felipe Lopez	1	Oliver Perez	50%
2007	0	0		0		0%
2006	2	1	Sunny Kim	1	Kyle Lohse	50%
2005	1	0		1	Kyle Lohse	100%
2004	1	1	Eric Gagne	0		0%
2003	2	2	Carlos Beltran	0		0%
			Bruce Chen
Total	8	5		3		37.5%

In summary

Based on the data from the last six years at least, the arbitration success rate of Scott Boras compared to other agents is negligible.

To gauge whether Ankiel and Boras can beat the odds and defeat the Cardinals in a hearing, a better assessment could be made on the basis of analyzing the two salary amounts submitted.

In my earlier work, I took an approach similar to the arbitration process, looking at players with comparable experience and statistics – as best as possible considering the true uniqueness of Ankiel’s late-blooming career change in becoming an outfielder.

Subsequent to that, here is how the submissions fell, with the two sides coming in almost a million dollars apart:

Ankiel: $3.3 million

Cardinals: $2.35 million

Midpoint: $2.825 million
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (which will almost certainly end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)

At least based on this work, Boras would seem to be in a strong position. Though not relevant to Ankiel’s case in an actual hearing, the comparable salaries were set in a different economic environment, a factor that could be the slogan of this already-stormy Cardinals’ off-season.

A brief summary of Tuesday’s news:

Ludwick: $4.25 million, Cardinals: $2.8 million (midpoint: $3.525 million)
My earlier estimate: $4 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD

Ankiel: $3.3 million, Cardinals: $2.35 million (midpoint: $2.825 million)
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD

Please click on the highlighted link to head over to the January 6 post entitled “What might Ludwick, Ankiel, Wellemeyer, Thompson and Duncan make via arbitration?” to read much more on the subject and comment there to keep the related discussion in one place. As always, your perspectives are encouraged.

In the arbitration process, the next steps are as follows:

• Each player may continue to negotiate with the club if both sides so choose.

• A hearing date for sometime during the first three weeks in February will be scheduled.

• If there is no resolution prior to that date, both sides will present their case to a three-person team of arbiters.

• The panel will select one amount or the other for a one-year contract – the amount the player submitted on Tuesday or the club’s amount – with no compromise allowed.

Though no one knew it at the time, June 13, 2006 would become a milestone for the St. Louis Cardinals. On that evening in Pittsburgh, reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter fanned 13 Pirates in seven shutout innings of work.

Since then, the Cardinals have gone 422 games and counting without a ten strikeout performance by any pitcher. Unless Carpenter is able to return to his previous proficiency level in 2009, the prospect of the drought being broken any time soon seems unlikely.

Maybe that was partly what Carp was thinking about when he told the Boston Globe the following last weekend:

“After two very frustrating and miserable years, I just want to feel healthy again. I feel if my arm and elbow are fine, I’ll be able to do what I’ve always done.”

One of the things the Cardinals ace has always been able to do on the mound is to get the big strikeout in a crucial situation.

We are all probably ever-so familiar with the Tony La Russa/Dave Duncan “pitch to contact” philosophy. I am not here to bash that, as it has worked for them. It also may at least partially be a reflection of the strengths of a majority their personnel.

On the other hand, is there a more macho play in all of sports than the strikeout – one on one, pitcher against hitter? When the hurler dominates, the batter is returned meekly to his dugout.

Let’s face it. Would the final out of the 2006 National League Championship Series have been remembered even a week later if Adam Wainwright had retired the Mets’ Carlos Beltran on a 6-3 grounder instead of looking at an amazing curveball?

Better yet, Wainwright also polished off the Detroit Tigers’ Brandon Inge on another K to secure the last out of the 2006 World Series. But who remembers the first step, the NLDS win? Yet had that not occurred first, the rest would never have happened. For the record, San Diego’s Dave Roberts grounded out to Albert Pujols. How utterly boring!

Back on point, statman extraordinare Tom Orf pulled some lists that illustrate the dying art of the Cardinals double-digit strikeout performance.

In the last 50 years, since 1959, team pitchers have registered 194 performances of ten strikeouts or more. While that averages almost four per year, the reality is that without Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, who retired following the 1975 season, the Cardinals half-century total would be a meager 120.

To help put those counts into perspective, one man alone, albeit MLB’s leading active strikeout pitcher and second all-time, Randy Johnson, has amassed some 212 games of ten or more Ks since his 1998 debut.

Closer to home, despite the strikeout-averse reputation of the current Cardinals coaches, at first blush, the TLR/DD years look fairly normal. Since 1996, St. Louis pitchers have amassed 60 ten strikeout games. Upon further analysis, however, over 75% of them occurred in the first five seasons of the La Russa reign behind the Benes brothers, Todd Stottlemyre and yes, Rick Ankiel. Andy had ten, Todd eight and Alan and Rick six.

Of course with Ankiel, I am referring to his superb 2000 season, a year in which he registered all six of his ten K performances. That total represents the Cardinals’ highest single season count of such games since Gibson’s seven accrued thirty years earlier, back in 1970.

I already mentioned Gibson’s career total of 74 ten strikeout games. As good as Ankiel was in 2000, Gibson had six different seasons as good or better, led by his magical 1968 campaign, during which he fanned ten or more batters 11 different times.

While Ankiel reached ten six times, he did not fan as many as 12 in any one game. In contrast, over his 17-year career, Gibson fanned 12 or more on a single day 30 different times.

Since 1903, Gibby is also the Cardinals post-season king, with five of the club’s seven 10 or more strikeout games. Mort Cooper and Grover Cleveland Alexander also cracked that list.

Gibson’s top playoff performance was in Game One of the 1968 World Series. On October 2, 1968, he fanned 17 Detroit Tigers while leading the Cardinals to a 4-0 shutout. It was arguably the greatest-pitched game in the history of the old Busch Stadium (Busch Stadium II), and shattered the World Series record of 15 that had been held by Sandy Koufax.

But as many Cardinals fans may know, Gibson doesn’t hold the club’s single game record. That is 19 Ks, collected by Steve Carlton on September 15, 1969. Ironically, the Cardinals lost 4-3 to the Mets that evening. Carlton had set his own team record of 16 two years prior, on September 20, 1967.

Though “Lefty” pitched for St. Louis for just five full seasons, he owned three of the top four highest one-game regular season strikeout totals in team history at the time he left the club. And he still does today. Carlton fanned 16 again on May 21, 1970 and ironically two days later, Gibson repeated the feat. Carlton did it in just eight innings, while Gibson went a full nine.

The Cardinals opponent in that pair of games was none other than the Philadelphia Phillies. Less than two years later, over a salary dispute, Carlton ended up a member of that very club, where he would remain for over 14 years. Lefty went on to finish fourth all-time in Major League Baseball history with over 4000 strikeouts.

Once Gibson retired, the Cardinals’ double-digit strikeout games essentially dried up. For the 12 years from 1976 though 1987, including the “Whiteyball” success years, the club had just three 10 K games. That was an amazing dry run considering the span was of almost 2000 games in duration.

After three years of Jose DeLeon logging a total of nine ten-plus strikeout games from 1988 through 1990, the final five years before La Russa’s arrival for the 1996 season saw six more such contests.

For the years 2001-2004, Matt Morris led the club each season, but totaled only eight 10 K games. Carpenter followed with four in his Cy Young Award 2005 season, which brings us right back to where we started – June 13, 2006, his only ten strikeout game that year – 422 games ago and counting.

Again, a special thanks to Tom Orf for his research, the basis for this article. His lists follow.

St. Louis Cardinals

Most ten or more strikeout games in a season

1959-2008

Year	Pitcher	#
1968	Gibson	11
1969	Gibson	9
1965	Gibson	8
1970	Gibson	7
1962	Gibson	6
1967	Gibson	6
2000	Ankiel	6
1963	Gibson	5
1964	Gibson	5
1966	Gibson	5
1969	Carlton	5
1972	Gibson	5
1997	An. Benes	5
2000	Kile	5
2001	Morris	4
2005	Carpenter	4

St. Louis Cardinals

Ten or more strikeout games by season

1959-2008

Team	Year	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#	Pitcher	#
3	1959	Gibson	1	Broglio	1	Mizell	1
4	1960	Broglio	3	Mizell	1
2	1961	Gibson	1	Sadecki	1
8	1962	Gibson	6	Broglio	1	Simmons	1
8	1963	Gibson	5	Broglio	1	Sadecki	1	Washburn	1
6	1964	Gibson	5	Sadecki	1
9	1965	Gibson	8	Sadecki	1
5	1966	Gibson	5
9	1967	Gibson	6	Carlton	2	Hughes	1
12	1968	Gibson	11	Briles	1
14	1969	Gibson	9	Carlton	5
11	1970	Gibson	7	Carlton	3	Torrez	1
8	1971	Gibson	2	Carlton	2	Reuss	2	Cleveland	1	Guzman	1
8	1972	Gibson	5	Spinks	1	Wise	1	Santorini	1
2	1973	Gibson	2
2	1974	Gibson	1	Siebert	1
3	1975	McGlothen	2	Gibson	1
1	1976	McGlothen	1
0	1977
1	1978	Urrea	1
1	1979	Vukovich	1
0	1980-1985
1	1986	Conroy	1
0	1987
3	1988	DeLeon	3
4	1989	DeLeon	4
3	1990	DeLeon	2	Magrane	1
0	1991
3	1992	Cormier	2	Osborne	1
0	1993
1	1994	Tewksbury	1
2	1995	Al.Benes	1	Petkovsek	1
6	1996	Al.Benes	2	An.Benes	2	Stottlemyre	2
12	1997	An.Benes	5	Al.Benes	4	Stottlemyre	3
5	1998	Stottlemyre	3	Morris	2
2	1999	Bottenfield	1	Oliver	1
14	2000	Ankiel	6	Kile	5	An.Benes	3
7	2001	Morris	4	Kile	3
4	2002	Morris	2	Finley	2
1	2003	Morris	1
3	2004	Morris	1	Williams	1	Carpenter	1
5	2005	Carpenter	4	Mulder	1
1	2006	Carpenter	1
0	2007
0	2008
194

St. Louis Cardinals

Ten or more strikeout games

1959-2008

	19	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	Total
Bob Gibson		1	2	3	10	14	18	26	74
Steve Carlton	1	2				4	1	5	13
Matt Morris					1		3	6	10
Andy Benes						2	2	6	10
Jose DeLeon						1		8	9
Todd Stottlemyre					2		1	5	8
Darryl Kile							2	6	8
Alan Benes							4	3	7
Chris Carpenter					1	1	2	2	6
Rick Ankiel							4	2	6
Ernie Broglio				1		1		4	6
Ray Sadecki					1			3	4
Lynn McGlothen								3	3
Chuck Finley						1		1	2
Rheal Cormier							1	1	2
Vinegar Bend Mizell								2	2
Jerry Reuss								2	2
Scipio Spinks					1				1
Dick Hughes					1				1
Mark Mulder						1			1
Pete Vukovich						1			1
Al Santorini						1			1
Woody Williams							1		1
Darren Oliver							1		1
Joe Magrane							1		1
Tim Conroy							1		1
Sonny Siebert							1		1
Curt Simmons							1		1
Mark Petkovek								1	1
Bob Tewksbury								1	1
Donovan Osborne								1	1
Nelson Briles								1	1
Ray Washburn								1	1
Mike Torrez								1	1
Reggie Cleveland								1	1
Santiago Guzman								1	1
Rick Wise								1	1
John Urrea								1	1
Kent Bottenfield								1	1
Totals	1	3	2	4	17	27	44	96	194
Strikeouts	19	16	15	14	13	12	11	10	Total

St. Louis Cardinals

Six or more strikeout games – Postseason

1959-2008	17	13	12	10	9	8	7	6	Total
Bob Gibson	1	1		3	2	1		1	9
John Tudor						1	1	2	4
Chris Carpenter							1	2	3
Danny Cox						1		2	3
Andy Benes					1		1		2
Matt Morris								2	2
Todd Stottlemyre						1	1		2
Woody Williams					1		1		2
1903-1958
Bill Hallahan						1		2	3
Burleigh Grimes							1	2	3
Dizzy Dean								2	2
Max Lanier							1	1	2
Mort Cooper			1				1	1	3
Pete Alexander				1				1	2
Totals	1	1	1	4	4	5	8	18	42

I was correct on six of the eight, but missed on Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, both of whom were non-tendered by the organization. Randy Flores was also cut loose as expected. Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs last week while Johnson and Flores are free agents.

What’s up now?

For the five Cardinals players remaining, the next window of opportunity began on Monday, January 5. Starting then, these eligible players have ten days to declare their intent to head toward arbitration.

While you may read a lot of hoopla about this filing period, it is merely a formality. All eligible players will certainly file, since in not doing so, they would foolishly give up their arbitration right. (Of course, they could agree to terms on a new contract at any time, which would also take them out of this process.)

What’s on deck?

The next milestone is far more important, as those players who choose to prepare for the possibility of a hearing must exchange 2009 salary figures with their clubs on Monday, January 19.

The player offers his figure, which is almost always highest, and the club presents their amount, the lower of the two. Between then and the actual time of their February arbitration hearing, the two are encouraged to negotiate an agreed-to amount, almost always somewhere in the middle.

In every case, the player will receive a raise. The only question is how much. An important consideration is what other players of comparable results and experience have received in the past. More on that shortly.

In some situations, the sides come to agreement on a multi-year deal instead, but the formal arbitration process is structured around a one-year contract only.

An example of the former is Yadier Molina, who was arbitration-eligible one year ago. Instead of going through the entire process, on January 21st, he and the Cardinals settled on a four-year contract with a fifth option year.

If the two parties can’t come to terms, a three-person arbitration panel will choose one of the two amounts submitted, with no compromise. Supporting arguments are offered by both sides at these hearings, scheduled between February 1 and 21.

Remember that only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, last season, just eight of 110 players who filed went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time.

Forecasting the 2009 Cardinals

So with that backdrop, let’s estimate the potential 2009 value of these five eligible players: Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.

In every case, I will compare the Cardinals’ statistics to players at the same position who had roughly the same service time one year ago. That allows me to use the latter’s 2008 salaries to help estimate what the Cardinals’ 2009 amounts might be.

Remember that I am estimating where the two sides might settle, with the club’s filing potentially lower and the player’s desired amount likely higher. Performance bonuses are included in the Cardinals’ 2008 salaries shown below and could be a contract component for any players that settle prior to arbitration.

When service time is noted, it is listed in “years.days”, where 172 days equals one full season.


Chris Duncan

Though the oft-injured outfielder hasn’t been productive since the early part of 2007, I am comparing his career stats with five other players who were “Super Twos” one year ago. As in the case of all these comparisons, the other players’ numbers listed are their career totals prior to 2008. In other words, their stats at the time they were in the same position as Duncan is now.

Four of the comps are outfielders while the fifth, Casey Kotchman, is a first baseman, a position Duncan also plays at times.

Duncan has demonstrated more power than all the comps, with Jonny Gomes perhaps closest. Yet the Tampa Bay outfielder is a part-timer. The two from the group that were more established starters coming into 2008 were Mark Teahen of the Royals and Ryan Church, then of the Nationals and now of the Mets.

Those two were also the only ones of the five comps who progressed in the arbitration process last year as far as exchanging amounts with their clubs, listed on the far right of the following table. They ended up with salaries in the low $2 millions, while the three others settled for less than $1.5 million last winter.

Because of his injuries and the resulting uncertainty, I would place Duncan’s 2009 value somewhere around $1.5 million.


Ryan Ludwick

The 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner only has two comparable outfielders from last year with between three and four years service. Therefore, I added a third player, Xavier Nady, who had just over four years coming into last season.

Toronto’s Alex Rios is more of a multi-tools guy with a longer track record than Ludwick. Nady is less productive than the Cardinal. Probably the best comp is Colorado’s Brad Hawpe, with a little better batting average and on-base percentage, but a bit less power.

Last year, Hawpe asked for $4.35 million heading into arbitration while the Rockies countered with $3.58 million. The two sides settled on $3.925 million. Hawpe has just one top 25 MVP placement and no All-Star or Silver Slugger-type recognition but has been more consistent over time.

Given that, somewhere around $4 million would seem a good place for Ludwick.


Rick Ankiel

As was the case last year, the uniqueness of Ankiel’s career progression means there are no rock-solid comps for him. Still, there were two MLB-5 outfielders last winter, or three if you count Casey Blake, who is primarily a third baseman but also has played the outfield extensively. For illustration, I added a fourth outfielder, Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer, who was at that time just a couple of weeks short of five years of service.

To be fair to Ankiel, I included his hitting stats only from his time as an outfielder, excluding those from his days as a pitcher. The Cardinal’s slugging is superior to the others, while his average and on-base marks are credible in comparison to them.

In terms of counting stats in a single season, the story is different however. Two of the five have hit as many as 25 home runs as Ankiel did in 2008. That was Craig Monroe’s 28 in 2006 and Blake also with 28 back in 2004. Compared to Ankiel’s 71 RBI last season, Juan Rivera has topped him once, Monroe and Cuddyer twice each and Blake three times.

Ankiel should be able to argue that with more at-bats, he could eclipse the counting stats generated by either Blake or Cuddyer. But that is future potential, not what has been accomplished to date.

While a look forward isn’t fair for this exercise, it is worth looking into Rivera’s situation in a bit more depth. After not quite reaching 300 at-bats in total over the past two seasons due to injury, as a free agent, he recently scored a three-year, $12.75 deal to return to the Angels. Rivera’s 2009 salary will be $3.25 million.

Monroe is currently a free agent and will make considerably less in 2009 than his $3.83 million last season, as his career is on a downward spiral.

For 2009, one might conclude that Ankiel could make as much as Rivera or Monroe, but having not completed more than a full season as an MLB outfielder, not as much as the far more established Cuddyer or Blake. Let’s call it no higher than $3.25 million, since Ankiel’s career number of at-bats remain considerably less than the others.

Of all the estimates, this could be the most volatile. Remember that Ryan Howard made $10 million as a Super Two last year after winning a hearing in which the Phillies had offered $7 million. Is Ankiel worth less than half of that?


Brad Thompson

When choosing comps for the right-handed swingman, I had 25 relievers who were MLB-3’s last year to choose from. I selected the seven who had progressed far enough in the arbitration process to exchange figures with their clubs.

It seems pretty clear that a player like Thompson should expect to make around a million dollars plus or minus. Brad’s ERA tends to the high side and his strikeouts are low, so despite his stingy walk rate, I would aim for an even $1.0 million.

Todd Wellemeyer

Again, this one is a bit tricky since Wellemeyer has over three years as a reliever and less than two as a starter. Given his current role is that of a starter one year from free agency, I used that population. Unfortunately, there was but one MLB-5 starting pitching comp from last season, now-free agent Oliver Perez. I added the three MLB-4 starters from last off-season to fill out the analysis.

Perez is one of the eight players across MLB that actually made it to his hearing, where he defeated his employers at the time, the Mets, to the tune of $6.5 million. Yet it could be argued that Perez is more accomplished than Wellemeyer.

Of the three career starters with one fewer year of total experience, Detroit’s Nate Robertson scored a three-year deal with a $4.25 million salary the first season, while a pair of Brewers, Claudio Vargas and injured Chris Capuano, each ended up with under $4 million.

Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.


Summary

Here are the projected differences in salaries from year-to-year for these five. Who said arbitration isn’t expensive?

If these estimates are anywhere near correct, the Cardinals could end up committing an incremental amount of over $10 million in 2009 just to keep these five players wearing the Birds on the Bat this coming season. On the average, their raises would be just under 300%.


Several tips of the cap are offered. One is to arbitration expert Bill Gilbert, who has provided valuable consulting assistance on the process. Another is to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the source for partial career data, as well as answers to a million other questions, too. Finally, a nod to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, always an invaluable resource.

Right up front, I will set aside the easiest and most logical entry – the results of the 2009 team on the field. The nature of that story has yet to be determined, shaped by the five items discussed here and many more.

Without further ado, here are my projected top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2009.

1. Lame duck La Russa

Are those car keys in his hand or a detonator?

I am conflicted about this choice. I don’t really believe this will turn out to deserve recognition as the true top story of the year. Instead, like the right elbow of Albert Pujols, it will become such big news only because some people will make it out to be.

As has been the case several times before, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa heads into the final year of his current contract in 2009.

Cardinals Chairman and CEO Bill DeWitt, Jr. has stated many times on the record that La Russa can manage the Cardinals as long as he likes, yet La Russa’s contract status often seems to be made into an issue by those looking for a reason to make noise or a place to hang blame.

This situation presented itself most recently in 2007, two years ago. Even with the Cardinals coming off a World Series win, when that next year’s club started slowly, those who love to stir the pot latched onto the silly idea that La Russa’s contract status was a detriment to his team.

Case in point. Though the St. Louis Post-Dispatch conveniently removes their old articles from the internet, I kept a copy of a May 17, 2007 column entitled “La Russa’s uncertain status only hurts Cards” because I found it as incredible then as I do today.

Here is the link, though as I mentioned, you can’t access it.

Among the amazing assertions offered (my comments outside the quotes):

“Just about everyone assumes La Russa is moving on after the season, and that lame-duck status only damages his ability to lead,” said the article in its third paragraph.

As a result, there was no fear of La Russa among the players, negatively impacting their motivation. With a contract, supposedly everything would be different.

“The fear factor was in place. Players don’t want to get on La Russa’s bad side. And staying motivated to maintain La Russa’s respect and keep their jobs will only help players’ performance,” was the exact quote.

DeWitt in particular, was challenged to step up and “make a new commitment to La Russa,” this despite the clear open offer from the lead owner to the manager sitting on the table as noted above.

The column closed with the worn and tired line, “the fans deserve to know”. This was apparently designed to incite the torches and pitchforks mob who can’t think for themselves to take to the streets.

The reality is that all anyone from DeWitt on down deserves is a “hard nine”, an honest effort, from La Russa every day. In my opinion, they have received that since the day the manager arrived in St. Louis in 1996. Even his harshest critics cannot argue about La Russa’s commitment to his job.

Still, look for these same old “lame duck La Russa” storylines to be recycled once again during the 2009 season as the drama writers look for an easy target.

Sadly, even La Russa has come to expect it.

During a Friday radio interview, Post-Dispatch sports staffers Bernie Miklasz and Joe Strauss quizzed La Russa about his contract status. Tony sidestepped the question several times, saying he was only focused on spring training and the 2009 season.

La Russa even joked about it. “I just know that if the club is playing reasonably well and nobody is arguing then Joe is going to find something I am doing wrong to agitate and get some controversy going. You know, it’s part of the deal. I almost enjoy it. Almost,” La Russa jibed.

As in the case most of the time with humor, there was more than a hint of reality likely being presented. The good news is since the 2007 articles can’t be accessed anymore, the scribes can just dust off their two-year old La Russa contract distraction columns – especially if the 2009 Cardinals don’t get out of the gate quickly.

A new twist may grow in importance as some are already trying to create the storyline that would link an Albert Pujols contract extension to La Russa’s status as manager. As big of a stretch as that seems, expect it to be hashed and re-hashed over the upcoming season.

To his defense, two years ago, La Russa ignored all the noise and waited until after the season to make his decision, as he always does. More familiar with the heavy office politics at the time than any of us reading this, La Russa’s inactivity proved to be smart as his boss, then-GM Walt Jocketty, was sacked after that 2007 season.

The manager had every right and reason to step back and see how the search for the new man to whom he would report would be carried out before making his personal decision as to whether or not to remain. In my opinion, La Russa played it right. Despite the incessant badgering guaranteed to be coming in the months ahead, I bet he will do the same in 2009.


2. Chris Carpenter’s health

The ace of the St. Louis staff hasn’t contributed since signing a huge contract extension prior to the 2007 season, one that covered five years with a team option for year six, worth a minimum of $63.5 million.

In my opinion, the 2008 Cardinals were kept in limbo much of the season waiting for a Carpenter return. When the long-awaited time finally arrived, it lasted just three starts. Then Carp went back into a holding pattern for the remainder of the year.

The same questions were asked over and over again, despite there being no ready answers.

• When will he return?
• Will he start or relieve?
• Will he be the one-game-per-series closer?
• Will he have surgery?

For 2009, none of these questions have changed.

While the front office seems interested in adding another starter to their 2009 mix, there is no way it would be a pitcher of Carpenter’s caliber (former 20-game winner, Cy Young Award recipient, etc.).

As recently as that Friday radio interview with Miklasz and Strauss, La Russa seems to be waiting like the rest of us to see what use Carpenter can be in the spring.

The manager expressed the thoughts of many when he seemed to wish out loud for some way to determine whether it would be best for Carpenter (and therefore for the Cardinals) for him to pitch every fifth day and throw 100-110 pitches as a starter or come out every second or third day and throw 20-30 pitches as a reliever.

La Russa, who admitted he purposely chooses to be optimistic this time of year, did not mention the third option for Carpenter, a return to his home away from home, the disabled list.

Following the 2008 season, Carpenter received at least three different opinions before deciding to forgo another surgery, instead taking a rehab approach to prepare for the upcoming campaign.

No matter what is said by whom, the only valid proof will be offered when Carpenter actually takes the mound again. A full return would be a huge lift for the 2009 Cardinals. Instead, if he is once more unable to contribute, the club may again have trouble reaching the first division of the National League Central.

He is that important – the Cardinals’ pitching Pujols, so to speak.


3. Calm or chaos at the closer position?

When ranking the 2008 top stories, at number four I documented in detail the chronology of the Cardinals closer hot potato. It began with Jason Isringhausen, passed to Ryan Franklin, shuffled to Kyle McClellan for a few games, tossed back to Izzy, then flipped to rookie Chris Perez (left) and finally landed right back in the lap of Franklin. And that doesn’t count proposals for both Adam Wainwright and Carpenter taking the role at various points during the year.

All we know heading into 2009 is that the Cardinals don’t believe that either Perez or hard-throwing rookie Jason Motte are ready for that important ninth-inning lead role.

They tried to grab Californian Brian Fuentes, but the free agent lefty closer turned his back on St. Louis in favor of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

It is not yet clear if the club will sign a lesser former fireman, such as Isringhausen or Trevor Hoffman, trade for one, or install as closer another pitcher who has never previously performed in that role (see Chris Carpenter above). It is worth noting that Franklin had never closed prior to 2008, either.

Whatever the combination chosen, La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan must find a better way to deploy them in 2009 to avoid the ugly record of blown saves and bullpen losses that played a major role in the failure of the 2008 Cardinals.


4. The future of Rick Ankiel

It could be that 2009, only Rick Ankiel’s second full year as a major league outfielder, will also represent his final season in a Cardinals uniform.

Amazingly, though he was drafted as a left-handed pitching phenom all the way back in 1997, it will have taken Ankiel 13 calendar years to accumulate the six years of major league service time that is a prerequisite for free agency.

Ankiel is the most intriguing of a class of several high-profile Cardinals to be eligible for free agency following next season (Troy Glaus, Todd Wellemeyer, Khalil Greene, Adam Kennedy, Ryan Franklin).

The widely-despised and feared Scott Boras serves as Ankiel’s representation. The super-agent is well-known for working the market to his clients’ advantage while fully exploiting the leverage free agency offers.

While Ankiel’s well-documented history includes strong emotional ties to the Cardinals, that alone will likely not be enough to overcome what could be a major difference financially between what the Cardinals would feel comfortable in spending to keep him and what the market demand for a long-term contract may be.

La Russa may have put it best last month when he said the following.

“Well, the Giants just signed a guy that I had an affinity for, (Edgar) Renteria, right? We lost him. You develop a respect and a relationship with players and sometimes it’s free agency that they move or sometimes it’s a trade because that’s the business of baseball.

“So, yeah, I have a strong personal relationship and respect and affection for Rick Ankiel, but this will be the last year of his contract, so he goes out and hits 40 balls, he may not play for us next year. There’s that business. I mean, I’ll always feel the same way about him.”

With top prospect Colby Rasmus in the wings, there is a true centerfielder almost ready to replace Ankiel. Other options exist in the corners with Ryan Ludwick and Chris Duncan, if the latter is healthy.

With a glut of other left-handed outfielders in Skip Schumaker, Duncan and Rasmus on the roster, General Manager John Mozeliak publicly floated Ankiel’s availability in the trade market this off-season. To date, there have been a few rumors of mild interest, but nothing that seemed serious.

Coming off a nagging sports hernia injury that cut short his initial campaign as an outfielder, perhaps other clubs want to see more from Ankiel in 2009 before becoming sold on him.

Yet if Rasmus finally realizes his potential during 2009 and “shoves” others aside and makes his way into the lineup, using La Russa’s recent words, could Ankiel be a mid-season trade option?

With Rasmus’ already carrying his own share of intrigue, how intertwined will his story become with that of the 13-year Cardinal Ankiel and will it be resolved painlessly or become a big distraction for the 2009 club?


5. When will Colby arrive and where will all the outfielders play?

As already mentioned, the Cardinals have too many outfielders, especially from the left side with Ankiel, Duncan, Schumaker and Rasmus. Primary right-handed hitters are Ludwick and Joe Mather with Brian Barton and Nick Stavinoha likely Memphis-bound.

Earlier in the off-season, Mozeliak made a very blatant announcement that Ankiel and Ludwick could be made available in the right deal. Ludwick, the more interesting of the two to many clubs, was linked to aborted deals with Atlanta and Colorado.

The latter trade, for Matt Holliday, would have sent both Ludwick and Schumaker west, helping to at least alleviate some of the outfield logjam. In the remainder of this off-season, the Cardinals may continue to try to swap that depth for needed pitching, though there are a number of free agent outfielders still out there as competition.

Current course and speed, Rasmus will be blocked to start the 2009 season. With only a partial year of experience at Triple-A, that would not be a terrible injustice, despite how Rasmus performs in spring training. There is also a strong financial incentive for the Cardinals not to add Rasmus to their roster until the season is underway. (That is due to his accrued service time prior to free agency.)

Schumaker has no options remaining so should begin 2009 in St. Louis with Ankiel, Duncan, Ludwick and Mather as the other four outfielders. Ankiel’s status was covered above, while Duncan has to re-prove himself after major neck surgery before his market value can be re-established.

In the aforementioned 1380 AM interview, La Russa said the following about Rasmus:

“In Colby’s case, he has the talent that when he is ready, he is going to shove somebody aside. I remember last year, there was some kind of… I got a question or two that there was some inkling that I didn’t like Colby. That was ridiculous. I love the kid’s talent but in spring training, he had a nice spring, but he didn’t have a better spring than Rick or Skip for example or Ludwick. So he went to Triple-A for his first full year in Triple-A.

“This year, he’ll be a year older, he’ll come to camp and he is getting in the middle of a competition. He is on my list to call here at the first of the year. Here is one of the things I am going to tell him. If he was a middle infielder, and with less of a competition, with his talent, you might play him before he’s quite ready because we are a little thin there. But that is not the case in the outfield and that’s just one of the realities.

“In Colby’s case, we’re just going to play him and the thing that you recognize – and I am going to repeat it again because I want our fans to remember this – he has the talent that when he is ready, he will move somebody aside. He is that good,” La Russa said.

What will happen if/when Rasmus forces his way into St. Louis? Injuries or ineffectiveness by others could happen, but are impossible to predict. La Russa often says that these kinds of problems have a way of working themselves out. We shall have to see about that.

(Dis)honorable mentions

There are at least two other topics that could easily vault onto this list if the right (or maybe more appropriately, wrong) conditions present themselves during 2009. Like so many of these stories, the two that follow are related to each other.

Albert Pujols’ contract extension. Though noted briefly above in the “La Russa Lame Duck” section, this could easily step out from the shadows to even eclipse the level of questions about the manager’s future. It shouldn’t, but it could.

Despite the fact that the first baseman is under contract for three more seasons, through 2011, the noise about his long-term status is already increasing. Some fans want it resolved now as a measure of ownership’s long-term commitment to the team, nervous that the price goes up with each passing day.

Others, like me, think the organization should wait another year or more before getting deeply into discussions, giving time for Pujols’ elbow as well as the economic situation to heal.

Speaking of…

The economy. Bill DeWitt’s now-infamous battle cry to “keep the powder dry” is being felt all over the organization – from the ticket windows to free agent signings to re-using minor leaguers’ uniforms, to the aborted purchase of the Triple-A Memphis franchise.

While hardly a Cardinals-only theme, the financial status of the organization will be under increasing scrutiny, both behind the closed doors of ownership meetings as well as among fans all over The Cardinal Nation.

Already posted:

Top 20 Cardinals Stories of 2008: #16-20

Top 20 Cardinals Stories of 2008: #11-15

Top 20 Cardinals Stories of 2008: #6-10

Top 20 Cardinals Stories of 2008: #1-5

The two had lost precious ground in their attempts to seize the two left-handed spots in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen and as a result, were among three players non-tendered by the club at Friday’s midnight EST deadline. Infielder Aaron Miles was the other.

There were two other important reasons for these players being cut loose. One is money and the other is roster spots. These players three could have each earned several million via arbitration while there are replacements coming up behind them still making only six figures.

Two lefties gone

Flores, 33, had his time in the St. Louis spotlight, playing a headline role while pitching in 185 games for the Cards from 2005 through 2007, but began to decline in the second half of 2007.

Last season, his fifth in the organization, was a complete washout between injury and ineffectiveness. Flores passed through waivers unclaimed last summer on his way to a demotion to Memphis.

Despite over three years of major league service time, the injury-prone Johnson has only pitched in 77 big-league games. Once a top organizational prospect, the 27-year-old was selected by the Oakland A’s in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft, but was returned to St. Louis during spring training.

Since, he has been slowed by a myriad of arm problems. Johnson’s St. Louis highlight may have been his team-leading ten appearances and four holds during the magical 2006 post-season.

Left-handed relief alternatives aplenty

In recent weeks, the Cardinals have added a host of others from the left side. They include Charlie Manning via waivers from Washington, the former free agent from Tampa Bay, Trever Miller, and minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, also invited to major league camp.

The Cards have stated they are still in search of another lefty, with former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes a prime target. All will compete for likely two roster spots at the major league level this coming spring.

Miles also gone (again)

Of the three non-tenders, Miles was perhaps the biggest surprise, but perhaps not.

The switch-hitting infielder, who will turn 32 on Monday, was in the same situation one year ago and was also non-tendered by the Cardinals. That way, the team could avoid the arbitration process with Miles, where the club could end up being forced to overpay to keep him. Surprisingly, the two sides reunited in January when Miles was given $1.4 million to return to St. Louis for 2008.

After a solid year backing up the middle infield and even getting starts in the outfield, I thought Miles would be asked back in 2009. Perhaps that could still happen, but not via the arbitration process.

Nick Punto: Over $4M per year

Market realities

Though I had projected that the Cardinals would tender Miles a contract, I second guessed myself as recently as Friday. That is when the Minnesota Twins re-signed their utility infielder Nick Punto to an eye-opening two-year, $8.5 million deal.

The 30-year-old Punto, playing a comparable role to Miles for the Twins, has a career line of .252/.319/.332 over the equivalent of roughly five MLB seasons. Miles’ line is .289/.329/.364 over his time with the White Sox, Colorado and the Cardinals.

So, if Punto can fetch $4.25 million per year on a two-year deal, isn’t Miles worth at least $5 million? Considering that view of the current market, I can see why the Cardinals took the cautious route here.

Miles is a handy player to have around, but not at that kind of price.

Infield alternatives

While they may still go outside for a Miles replacement if he does not return, the Cardinals do have alternatives. Several younger, cheaper and less-experienced in-house players already on the 40-man roster include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden and Tyler Greene.

Ryan has the most time in the majors of the three but lacks consistency. That translates into less confidence shown by the coaching staff. The 26-year-old has no minor league options remaining, which means he has to either make the big league club in the spring or pass through waivers before heading back to Triple-A.

The Olympian Barden was originally claimed off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2007 season. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals can decide about the 27-year-old. Last spring, they took him off the 40-man, when he went unclaimed, then later re-added him. Barden has yet to impress in two end-of-season call-ups. Despite a decent season in Memphis, Barden received a grand total of nine September at-bats with St. Louis in 2008. Not inspiring.

Greene, taken just two picks after top organizational prospect Colby Rasmus in 2005, has long been touted for his potential, but had yet to deliver until 2008. The shortstop had a decent season between Springfield and Memphis and for the first time as a professional, was moved all around the infield during his stint in the Arizona Fall League where he looked fine defensively. That tryout was surely not coincidental.

Second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir also still sits on the 40-man roster, likely on the strength of a .407 OBP put up in 2007 between Springfield and Memphis. His 2008 mark was a more realistic .352, but any future shot at St. Louis seems unclear.

What’s next?

All three non-tendered players, Flores, Johnson and Miles, are officially free agents, available to sign with any team with no penalties or restrictions, including the Cardinals – if both sides are willing.

As expected, five other Cardinals were tendered offers for 2009 by the deadline, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson. These players are bound to the Cards for next season, with the amounts of their salaries still to be negotiated over the next two months.

With these moves, the Cardinals 40-man roster is currently at 34 players. This gives the organization plenty of flexibility to make other moves as the 2008-2009 hot stove season continues.

The eight include pitchers Randy Flores, Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson and Todd Wellemeyer, infielder Aaron Miles and outfielders Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick.

Of this group, I project only Flores is at serious risk of receiving his walking papers. Given the left-handers that have been added in recent weeks says nothing good about Flores’ job security. They are minor leaguer Ian Ostlund and 40-man additions Charlie Manning (off waivers from Washington) and free agent Trever Miller (from Tampa Bay).

The Cardinals are still looking for a lefty and a closer. If he is affordable enough, free agent Brian Fuentes could be the man for both job. Add Johnson to the mix and you have potentially six lefties fighting for two or three jobs at most.

That could mean trouble for Flores’ continued employment with the Cardinals.

For more details on the process and my logic on all eight players, check out my free article on Scout.com.