With Kyle Lohse set to return to the St. Louis rotation this Sunday afternoon, the Cardinals will soon be faced with a decision over who will remain as their number five starter. It will likely boil down to who they believe will do the least amount of damage, as Todd Wellemeyer currently sits with a 7-7 record and a 5.58 ERA in 100 innings pitched while Brad Thompson has tallied a 2-6 record and a 5.31 ERA in just shy of 58 innings.

Wellemeyer has fallen hard this season after posting a very respectable 13-9 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 191.7 IP in 2008. It seems fairly clear that he has become overexposed against left-handed batters, giving up 11 HR, 27 BB, and a 1.98 WHIP along with 28 strikeouts in 48 IP this season. Conversely, he has only yielded 2 HR and 18 walks with a 1.44 WHIP and 36 K in 52 IP against right-handed batters. In 2008, he recorded only 29% of his outs against LHB while in 2009, he has been forced to record 48% of his outs against lefties.

His reliance upon his changeup has thus jumped from 10.8% to 13.1% this season while his slider usage has dropped from 23.7% to 21.4%. This is a big problem, as FanGraphs indicates that he gives up 6.12 runs more than average per 100 changeups thrown compared to giving up 1.87 runs fewer than average per 100 sliders and 1.86 runs fewer than average per 100 curves. In short, teams have realized that his changeup is an inadequate off-speed offering and are stacking their lineups with left-handed hitting in order to compensate.

Thompson joined the 2009 rotation on June 2, making eight starts since. In five of those outings, he failed to last longer than five innings. Much like Wellemeyer, Thompson has been forced to face many more left-handers than in the past, as he has recorded almost exactly as many outs against RHB than LHB this season. This has naturally resulted in him throwing his changeup significantly more often – he has used it a solid 20% of the time following a steady 13% usage in 2007 and 2008.

Unfortunately for Brad, his already poor fastball velocity has dropped from 88 MPH to 87 MPH this season while his changeup velocity has risen from 81 MPH to 83 MPH. A four MPH difference likely won’t fool very many major league batters. To date, his changeup has actually been his most effective offering according to FanGraphs, as his curveball has fared worse. In 29 IP against RHB, Thompson has 9 K against 6 BB with a 1.40 WHIP and 3 HR while in 28 2/3 IP against LHP, Thompson has 13 K against 11 BB with a 1.38 WHIP and 4 HR. Clearly, there isn’t a strong platoon advantage either way.

As counter-intuitive as it may seem, I believe that Brad Thompson may be the Cardinals’ best choice to stay in the rotation while Todd Wellemeyer is best suited as a situational or long relief pitcher out of the bullpen. Wellemeyer’s 5.6 IP per start isn’t protecting the bullpen significantly more than Thompson’s 5.4 IP per start, and Thompson at least appears to have some hope at stopping left-handed batting.

There is some hope, as Wellemeyer has begun to throw a cutter a mere 2.2% of the time this season, and it has fared well in limited action. Ryan Franklin has become as much more effective pitcher against LHB this season due to a sudden 26.2% usage of the cutter (compared to 2.5% last season) in addition to phasing out his slider.

In 2009, Franklin has thrown nine strikeouts against four walks with a 0.77 WHIP in 15 2/3 IP against left-handed batters compared to 15 strikeouts against three walks with a 0.87 WHIP in 17 1/3 IP against right-handed batters. Compare this to Franklin’s 2008 season, when he surrendered a 1.61 WHIP and 21 K:17 BB against LHB while giving up a 1.38 WHIP and 30 K:13 BB against RHB.

If Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan could help teach Wellemeyer an effective off-speed option against left-handed pitchers like he did Franklin, then Todd would be versatile enough to return to the starting rotation. Until then, Brad Thompson would be my choice.

Thanks to FanGraphs and their PitchFX data for pitch usage, speeds, and effectiveness.

Of the youngsters getting starts last season, left-hander Jaime Garcia is out for most or all of 2009, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Mitchell Boggs came into camp as the number six starter favorite, but was slowed by shoulder discomfort.

Oh yes, and then there is Brad Thompson. The veteran is now in his fifth major league season and was the club’s Rookie of the Year in 2005, yet the 27-year-old has yet to seize a role. In fact, the right-hander has not spent an entire season from start to finish in St. Louis and that record remains intact here in 2009.

In 2005, Thompson made his MLB debut on May 5 and picked up his first save. He was the first member of the Cards’ 2002 draft class to reach the bigs. That season, he made 40 appearances, all in relief. During the World Championship season, Brad pitched from the bullpen in 42 games and made his first major league start, on May 24. He also finished a career-high 16 games.

The instability of the 2007 rotation meant Thompson would be called upon to make a career-high 17 starts along with 27 more pen appearances. As his ERA climbed each season, Brad spent more of 2008 in Memphis. His career-low 26 St. Louis outings included six starts.

Prior to Tuesday, Thompson had not appeared in a game since May 17. This is due to several factors, including little need for a long man with the starters in the midst of a very productive period as well as the odd decision to carry an extra reliever even though the offense has been scuffling.

Yet when Joel Pineiro’s back kept him from making his start against Cincinnati at Busch Stadium on June 2, it was Thompson who received the call to replace him. It was to be Brad’s first start of 2009 and 25^th of his major league career.

Thompson pitched decently, going five innings and allowing two runs. He received a no-decision, narrowly avoiding being on the hook for a potential loss when Albert Pujols doubled in a fifth-inning run to tie the contest at two each. The offense would break through for three runs in the seventh to distance themselves from the visitors and the club improved its record to 18-7 when Brad starts.

In taking the hill to begin the game, Thompson became the eighth starter used by the club this season, on the heels of them deploying 11 in 2008. It was the sixth start made by one of the “sixth” starters this season. Of the other sixth starters, Boggs has four and Walters has one.

In terms of timing, though Walters may have had the unofficial designation as camp ended, Thompson was the one that made the club when the Cardinals came north. Yet, on April 17, when the team needed a starter in Chicago, Walters was called up to make his MLB debut on the national stage.

His starting tryout lasted just one game as he allowed three runs in four innings. Though he fanned seven, Walters was frequently in trouble. He moved to the pen until being dispatched to Memphis on May 4, replaced on the active major league roster by Thompson, recalled from the Redbirds.

Thompson had gone down on April 15 when Boggs was brought up to St. Louis for the first time this season. Mitchell pitched in relief behind Walters on the 17^th and was given four consecutive starts from April 25^th through May 14. He was returned to Memphis on May 15.

Of the three sixth starters, Boggs has the best outing and the only decision to date. He collected a win in his first start against Chicago at home on April 25. That day, Boggs allowed a single unearned run in 5 2/3 innings as the Cards went on to defeat the Cubs, 8-2.

Following is the log of the six sixth starter outings this season. Though the three are a collective 1-0 in the role, the club is a solid 5-1 in the games during which they started. In the role, the group has a collective 3.64 ERA compared to 3.69 for all of the Cardinals starters this season.

It is significant when your fill-in starters can deliver an ERA comparable to the top five. Now, I am not saying they can go as deeply into games or have as solid of a strikeout to walk ratio. But when called upon, these three have all performed admirably this season.

After Tuesday’s game, manager Tony La Russa said he is “optimistic” about Pineiro’s return on Sunday. That means the Cardinals’ number six starters may have to wait for awhile for start number seven. Whenever it occurs, they should be ready.

Sixth starter	Starts	Opponent	Score	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	K:BB	ERA
Walters
4/4 – 4/17	Apr 17	@ CHC	L 7-8	-	4	6	3	3	0	2	7
Boggs	Apr 25	CHC	W 8-2	W	5.2	6	1	0	0	1	3
4/18 – 5/6	Apr 30	@ WAS	W 9-4	-	6	6	4	4	1	2	9
	May 14	@ PIT	W 5-1	-	4.1	9	1	1	0	2	1
	May 6	PIT	W 4-2	-	4.1	5	2	2	0	5	4
Thompson
5/7-6/2	Jun 2	CIN	W 5-2	-	5	5	2	2	0	1	0
Total sixths	2009				29.1	37	13	12	1	13	24	1.85	3.64
All StL starters	2009				312.1	315	141	128	19	97	213	2.20	3.69

1:00 p.m. Announcement of 1:35 p.m. start, but the tarp wasn’t even off yet. Steady rain.

1:30 p.m. Tarp removed, Kyle Lohse pulled from start in favor of Kyle McClellan, who as the union rep was also a part of the decision. New start announced for 2:00.

2:00 p.m. Tarp back on, no announce time. Rain slows shortly after.

2:30 p.m. Nats president Stan Kasten talks with the press. Still wants to try to get game in.

3:15 p.m. Tarp drained off and put back on.

3:30 p.m. Game finally called with no makeup date yet.

3:45 p.m. Rain stopped – at least for a short while.

Tony La Russa spoke with the press prior to Sunday’s game as always. I will forego the details of the discussion about how he wanted to play the game since it is moot.

I will share one comment. One writer asked Tony if the weather dictated any of his line up choices. His reply: “I should put the guys out there I don’t care about?” Then he answered the question with Pujols as the example. “Albert didn’t start yesterday because his legs were achy, but he’s playing today. These guys just have to play under control.”

It is interesting to note the manager’s comments on P.J. Walters, who tossed two innings on Saturday and was the only reliever not “hot” on Sunday. After these comments, the decision was made to send Walters back to Memphis with Brad Thompson returning to St. Louis. Look for that to be announced on Monday.

“He (P.J.) hasn’t thrown the ball as hard in relief, which is a bit surprising. Normally when you only pitch an inning or two, you can really let it go. I still think he’s probably learning the role. He’s got the weapons to do that job. Try to settle into it. He’s a starting pitcher we’re using as an innings guy…. I don’t want to set him back, either. He’s got a chance to pitch in this league.”

When asked about a swap between Walters and Thompson:

“We’re evaluating the roster all the time. I’m not going to get into that daily thing. Start getting him paranoid and getting Thompson’s hopes up. I think Brad pitched a couple of good games but the last one wasn’t as good. He’s just got to take care of his business.”

When asked about whether he’d rather play the other division clubs more often (balanced schedule) in the context of making reschedule of games like Sunday’s easier:

“I don’t spend any time thinking about it. The guys that make the decisions are the ones thinking about it. What good is there to think about it? It doesn’t change anything. What they give us is what you’ve got to play with.”

On the bullpen:

“They’re all settling in, understand what is expected and what they have to do. They’re making some progress. What I think about the bullpen is what I think about the whole club. If we don’t improve – if this is the best we play all year – it won’t be good enough. We’ve got to improve.

“When we came out of spring training, I had an idea, Dunc had an idea what Chris (Perez) had to do to get better. Every one of those guys. At the beginning of the season, you see what’s working. Keep tweaking it. Pat them on the back when they do well. That stuff never changes.

“It’s a long season and they each have adjustments. They’ve each had enough success, they feel like they could be a contributor. I don’t think anybody is scared to go out there.”

On the aftermath of Rick Ankiel’s crash into the wall Saturday:

“I know he had a whiplash. I didn’t know if he was going to be able to go today, but he said he was good to go.”

On the ideal back up catcher:

“A guy that understands and accepts his role. A guy that takes a lot of interest and pride in working with a staff. To know it’s the responsibility of the catcher to get something out of the pitching staff that day. A guy that is going to work well with the regular catcher – not sitting there eating his heart out that the other guy will go 0-for-4 or 0-for-12 so he can play.

“The only thing that could make Jason (LaRue) a better fit for us is if he hit left-handed. But that’s not really important. Jason LaRue is everything you want to look for. He catches great. He throws well. Between him and Yadi (Molina), they’re tough to run on. He’s a veteran, a winner.

“A dad comes up to me and asks me how his kid should get noticed. I tell him to be a catcher. That’s the way to get to the big leagues,” said the manager.

The timing is certainly not random. As most Cards fans know, starter/ace Chris Carpenter had to leave Tuesday’s game against Arizona after three innings with a ribcage injury. That left 18 outs or six innings for the bullpen to secure, or as it turned out with the game going into the tenth inning, the revised goal became to get 21 outs.

Unfortunately, out number 21 was never made as the tenth batter facing Brad Thompson, Eric Byrnes, stroked the winning hit into the left-field corner to end a very disappointing 7-6 loss.

The most damaging blow prior was a three-run home run served up by Josh Kinney with two outs in the eighth. The right-hander walked the opposing catcher, Miguel Montero and hit Justin Upton with a full-count offering before pinch-hitter Conor Jackson slammed a long ball to left (pictured). That turned a one-run lead into a two-run deficit and became the first blown save of the year for Kinney and the third for the Cardinals against three saves.

As a group, the 2009 Cardinals bullpen was expected to be a younger, more improved relief corps compared to their inconsistent and disappointing 2008 predecessors. As the data below shows, through nine games, the anticipated improvement is not there.

In just about every measurement, the 2009 relievers have started more poorly than the 2008 group, whether you consider won-loss record, save conversion rate or ERA. In the latter case, the 2009 pen is three-quarters of a run per nine innings worse than last season. The only area of improvement shown here is strikeout-to-walk ratio.

I also listed the National League bullpen averages as a secondary point of comparison. Not surprisingly, the 2008 Cardinals pen was worse than the NL average in every one of these categories. Only a low walk rate keeps the same statement from being made about the current crew.

Though the 2009 totals are small, note that the members of the Cardinals pen have thrown more innings than the NL average this season. That is a contrast to their level from last year, a period during which some considered the relievers had become overworked.

2008 relievers	W	L	W %	Sv	BS	Sv %	ERA	IP	BB	K	K:BB
Cardinals	22	31	0.415	42	31	0.575	4.20	499	230	381	1.66
NL average	26	27	0.493	38	23	0.623	4.09	514	219	432	1.97
2009 relievers	W	L	W %	Sv	BS	Sv %	ERA	IP	BB	K	K:BB
Cardinals	0	2	0.000	3	3	0.500	5.06	26.2	8	19	2.38
NL average	1	1	0.481	2	1	0.667	4.45	24	12	20	1.63

Following are the current stats from the seven individuals that make up the 2009 Cardinals bullpen. Note at the lower right that the relievers’ ERA is over three runs per nine innings worse than the starters.

2009	W/L	Sv Opps	Sv %	Inh Rnrs Score	IRS %	1st Btr Ret	1BR %	ERA	WHIP	OBA	OBP
Franklin	0-0	1/1	100	1/0	0	2/2	100	0.00	0.38	0.111	0.111
Kinney	0-0	0/1	0	4/1	25	3/2	66	13.50	2.25	0.200	0.467
McClellan	0-0	1/1	100	3/0	0	3/3	100	2.25	1.00	0.188	0.235
Miller	0-0	0/1	0	3/2	66	3/2	66	0.00	1.00	0.231	0.231
Motte	0-1	0/1	0	0/0	NA	4/1	25	11.25	2.25	0.320	0.455
Reyes	0-0	1/1	100	2/1	50	4/3	75	0.00	0.27	0.083	0.083
Thompson	0-1	0/0	NA	0/0	NA	4/3	75	6.75	1.80	0.345	0.375
Relievers	0-2	3/6	50	13/4	31	23/16	70	5.06
Starters								1.96
Team								2.98

Won/loss: Thompson and Jason Motte have the only bullpen decisions – a pair of ugly bookends. Motte earned the defeat on opening day and Thompson took it on the chin in the most recent contest on Tuesday night.

Save opportunities: On Tuesday, Kinney joined Motte and Trever Miller in the negative category. The three conversions were by Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes and Kyle McClellan.

Inherited runners scoring: Miller has the poorest early record here, as two of the three runners on base when he entered the game came around to score. Reyes allowed his first inherited runner to cross the plate on Tuesday night. McClellan has been the best here so far.

First batter retired: Generally, this looks ok with one exception. Tuesday night marked the first time in his four outings this season that Motte kept his initial batter off the bases. His troubles have been of his own making. Each time, Motte has been allowed to come in with the bases empty.

ERA/WHIP: There is no in-between. Kinney, Motte and Thompson aren’t getting the job done in the early going. Way too many baserunners with too many of them crossing the plate. (As a reference point, a WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) of 1.40 or slightly under is league average.)

Opponent batting average/on-base percentage: Kinney’s lack of control is killing him, Thompson’s problem has been hits while Motte is struggling in both areas.

What to do?

I seriously wondered if Chris Perez was only the eighth-best reliever on the Cardinals this spring and am continuing to ask myself the same question.

Sent to Memphis to open the season, Perez has pitched four innings over three games. He has a win and two saves on no hits and three walks. Perez has fanned four Triple-A batters.

If the Cardinals need to call up a pitcher from Memphis to backfill Carpenter, it may be someone who can start, such as P.J. Walters, but the shaky bullpen appears that it could use a shot of life, too.

Sure, the middle infield is muddled and there is a scrum (or perhaps there will be) over who takes over temporarily for Troy Glaus at third base. Colby Rasmus’ immediate major league future may depend as much on Skip Schumaker’s successful conversion to second base as it does him pulling out of a mini slump to start camp.

The rotation is set. The catching is set. The infield and outfield are getting lined up. Until Thursday, the bullpen seemed aligned, too. Yet the concern remained about the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the contenders for the second left-handed spot behind Trever Miller.

That concern was addressed with Thursday’s announcement of the signing of Dennys Reyes to a two-year contract. While that is yesterday’s news now, several of the aftershocks attracted my attention.

One is that Miller is going to be tried in the ninth inning, according to an idea of pitching coach Dave Duncan, as shared with the Post-Dispatch. It would not be to displace the winner of the competition between hard-throwing right-handers Jason Motte and Chris Perez, but instead to offer a different look from the other side.

The 35-year-old Miller is a veteran of over 500 MLB games and has accrued a total of ten saves, with three the most gained in any season, at least until now. Miller’s first shot in the ninth was during Friday’s tie game. He yielded the winning run on a pair of hits and a walk.

The presence of Reyes also raised another question as to the identities of the seven members of the bullpen or the 12^th pitcher as camp breaks.

Here is what Tony La Russa said to MLB.com on Friday. You may have to read it a second or third time, however…

”… we have that [last] spot. It could go to a third left-hander, or it could go to a right-hander. If somebody wants a gift of a spot on the roster, that’s not the kind of guy you want on the club. You have to earn it. It just goes from two spots open — one spot open and one maybe — to one maybe.”

While La Russa did not identify the six spots taken, let’s take a run through the candidates to see what the manager and pitching coach may be thinking.

First, we have the relievers whose spots seem very secure. They include:

1. Ryan Franklin

2. Miller (L)

3. Reyes (L)

Then we have two returnees whose jobs seem pretty safe:

4. Kyle McClellan

5. Josh Kinney

I believe that McClellan will be on the team, but there remains a small chance he could be needed to start. As of today, his official status is as a starter, though that is expected to change at some point when all five members of the rotation seem fully healthy and ready to begin the season. If Mitchell Boggs can continue to build upon his solid spring debut, he may also ease the McClellan shift back to relief.

Kinney has been struggling with his command and location, but that is likely an early spring issue that will be worked out. Though the righty missed most of the last two seasons following dual elbow surgeries, he returned for an impressive, though short, re-audition last September.

Next we have the closer. It seems things continue to line up such that there will be room for one of the two of Perez and Motte on the opening roster, but not both. Let’s assume that for now.

6. Motte/Perez

Are these the manager’s six filled positions?

In a traditional La Russa/Duncan pen, the final spot is a long reliever-spot starter. I don’t want to read anything into early spring performances, but I did note with interest Franklin’s three-inning outing the other day.

Having spent most of his career as a starter prior to arriving in St. Louis, the 36-year-old wanted to compete for a rotation spot when he was signed two years ago. Perhaps it is nothing, but coupling this with the idea of using Miller in the ninth inning might free up Franklin for a longer role in 2009.

Coming into camp, Franklin was most often mentioned as the fallback for a Perez-Motte dual failure. Franklin did not shine as the closer last season, however.

7. To be determined

I see at least three paths here, labeled Options A, B and C. They involve four pitchers in a fight for one job – Brad Thompson, Royce Ring, Charlie Manning and one of Perez and Motte.

Option A: The long man

That Franklin-Miller scenario would put incumbent long-reliever/spot starter Brad Thompson on the hot seat and potentially open up Option B or C below.

Thompson seems to be a guy never able to lock down a role, yet offers a manager a lot of flexibility. For whatever reason, when Thompson starts, the club wins. Since coming up in 2005, the right-hander has started 24 games, during which the Cardinals went 17-7.

Option B: The third lefty

I have noted in the past that the Cardinals have not broken camp with three left-handers in the pen since the short-lived and ill-fated Bill Pulsipher experiment in 2005. That lasted five games for Pulse. The previous case was 2001, a time when another non-roster invitee, Jeff Tabaka, made the team. That lefty remained longer, but it wasn’t an entirely satisfactory result.

The third season in La Russa’s 13 in St. Louis in which the team came north with three left-handed relievers was 1999. That year, in an oddity, the club began the season with three lefties starting (Kent Mercker, Donovan Osborne and Darren Oliver) and three more in the pen (Mike Mohler, Lance Painter and Scott Radinsky).

Back to the here and now, so far in camp, neither lefties Charlie Manning nor Royce Ring have pitched themselves off the team. Both are on the 40-man roster and either could nail down that final spot, a point to which La Russa alluded in his quote above. Maybe the competition is real and maybe it is designed to head off any potential post-Reyes letdown by the pair.

Option C: The second closer

It would be unfair to Motte and Perez to not acknowledge that if each impresses all month long, the club could decide to keep them both.

Speaking of options, let’s discuss options as they relate to the club’s ability to ship these players to the minors. All of the players in question except Ring have an option remaining, which include Motte, Perez, Manning, and even Thompson, though the latter would have to pass through revocable waivers first. This is likely a formality that should not inhibit the decision-making process. Even McClellan and Kinney have options in the unlikely event it gets to that.

All in all, this gives La Russa and Duncan maximum flexibility to shape their pen and decide who to name as that seventh man.

The 30-year-old Ludwick was last of five eligible Cardinals players with from just under three to five-plus years of service time to settle, and in the process of doing so, avoided a salary arbitration hearing set for Tuesday in Phoenix, AZ. Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan plus pitchers Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer all previously agreed to terms.

Ludwick’s new deal is for a reported $3.7 million, slightly above the midpoint between the Cardinals’ original offer of $2.8 million and the player’s $4.25 million filing. Ludwick can earn up to an additional $100,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. He can receive $25,000 at 625, another $25,000 at 650 and another $50,000 if he reaches 675.

Making just $421,000 last season, Ludwick’s increase represents a 779% bump over that 2008 take, by far the largest absolute as well as percentage increase among the five.

This was Ludwick’s first year through the process leading up to arbitration and unless he signs a long-term contract first, he could be in a similar place in each of the next two off-seasons. Ludwick will become eligible for free agency for the first time after the 2011 campaign.

The Cardinals avoid hearings if at all possible and have been pretty good at it recently. Their last salary arbitration hearing was held in 1999.

With that, following is a summary of how the Cardinals 2009 arbitration-eligible cases came out. For all intents and purposes, the players always win. The only real suspense is the amounts of their increases.

Only two players, Ankiel and Ludwick, progressed as far as exchanging figures with the club and having hearings scheduled. Wellemeyer and Duncan came to terms on January 19 and Thompson settled the very next day. Just three hours prior to his scheduled hearing last Thursday, Ankiel and the Cardinals also shook hands on a 2009 contract.

In total, the Cardinals will be paying $12,050,000 for the service of these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest contracts.

	2008	2009 estimate	Player	Club	2009 actual	Increase %
Ankiel	$0.975 million	$3.25 million	$3.3 million	$2.35 million	$2.825 million	190%
Duncan	$0.439 million	$1.5 million			$0.825 million	188%
Ludwick	$0.421 million	$4.0 million	$4.25 million	$2.8 million	$3.700 million+	779%
Thompson	$0.414 million	$1.0 million			$0.650 million	57%
Wellemeyer	$1.2 million	$4.0 million			$4.050 million	338%
Total	$3.449 million	$13.75 million			$12.050 million
+ $100K incentives

Any debate over 2009 contracts for members of the Cardinals roster is now officially over. The only other players still unsigned are those with less than three years service time as major leaguers.

That group is obligated to accept whatever amount they are tendered by the club as long as the “offer” exceeds the minimum salary of $400,000 and is at least 80% of the amount earned in the previous season. The players choice is either to accept or not play, yet if they stick around, they too will become eligible for arbitration soon enough.

Look for those business-as-usual announcements early next month.

Instead, I hereby re-apply the moniker to the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals bullpen, headlined by veteran Ryan Franklin, aka Frankie. The nine-year veteran is the leader of the band with over 1000 career innings in the majors.

The group behind Franklin when the club breaks camp from Jupiter, Florida at the end of March could include six far less-experienced relievers. While veteran left-hander Trever Miller and righty Brad Thompson have accrued over 700 big-league innings of work between them, the other four are greener than the infield grass that surrounds Busch Stadium’s mound.

While not true teenagers anymore, the quartet is certainly made up of baseball teenagers, with a total of just under 130 career MLB innings among them. They are lefty Charlie Manning and right-handers Josh Kinney, Jason Motte and Chris Perez. The fresh-faced Thompson could also fit right in with the Cards’ budding kiddie corps.

2009	Career IP	subtotal
Ryan Franklin	1047.7
Trever Miller	422.3
Brad Thompson	305.7
subtotal		1775.7
Charlie Manning	42
Chris Perez	41.7
Josh Kinney	32
Jason Motte	11
subtotal		126.7
total		1902.3

Noticeably absent from this initial group is Kyle McClellan. The club’s Rookie of the Year last season when working out of the bullpen is fully preparing for spring as a starter. Yet the right-hander has just 75 2/3 career MLB innings himself. So the 2009 picture wouldn’t change if he was inserted instead of one of the others.

Lefty Royce Ring could also be considered instead of Manning. He has managed to stay up only long enough to have pitched 65 2/3 big-league innings over his four-year career. That is not much difference from Manning’s 42.

Since 1900 total pen innings are tough to put into perspective standing alone, I looked the Cardinals’ top seven relievers last season in terms of innings pitched and their total MLB experience coming into 2008.

2008	Then-career IP
Ron Villone	1069.3
Ryan Franklin	968.7
Jason Isringhausen	864.7
Russ Springer	747.3
Brad Thompson	241
Randy Flores	182.3
Kyle McClellan	0
	4073.3

As you can see, last year’s group in aggregate came into the season with over double the number of MLB mound innings than the projected 2009 gang. Of the four pitchers with over 700 career innings, three are gone for this coming season.

Not only are the experience levels dramatically different from season to season, Franklin and Thompson are the only carryovers from the top seven 2008 pen workload leaders.

To make sure that 2008-2009 wasn’t a fluke, I extended my analysis back each season in the La Russa years, again looking at the aggregate experience coming into that year by the seven that would become the busiest relievers.

“Leaders of the band” denote the team’s most experienced reliever while “Roadie” designate the one of the seven with the fewest career innings pitched coming into that season.

Bullpen	Career IP	YTY	Leader of the band	IP	Roadie	IP
2009	1902.3	-2171	Ryan Franklin	1047.7	Jason Motte	11
2008	4073.3	1427	Ron Villone	1069.3	Kyle McClellan	0
2007	2646.3	1139.3	Ryan Franklin	888.7	Kelvin Jimenez	0
2006	1507	-2127.7	Jason Isringhausen	741	Adam Wainwright	2
2005	3634.7	9.7	Cal Eldred	1331	Brad Thompson	0
2004	3625	-855	Cal Eldred	1264	Kiko Calero	38.3
2003	4480	2209.3	Jeff Fassero	1738	Kiko Calero	0
2002	2270.7	527	Mike Timlin	698.7	Mike Crudale	0
2001	1743.7	-732.7	Mike Timlin	626	Mike Matthews	9.3
2000	2476.3	678	Heathcliff Slocumb	562.3	Gene Stechschulte	0
1999	1798.3	-108	Heathcliff Slocumb	500.3	Rich Croushore	54.3
1998	1906.3	-2044	Jeff Brantley	723.7	Rich Croushore	0
1997	3950.3	-2475.3	Dennis Eckersley	3193	Rigo Beltran	0
					Brady Raggio	0
1996	6425.7		Dennis Eckersley	3133	Cory Bailey	23.7

There’s a lot to consume here, but what jumps out at me first is the experience drain of 2171 innings from last year to this. That represents the pen’s biggest year-to-year decrease since 1997, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan’s second season in St. Louis.

Surprisingly, “Frankie and the Teenagers”, aka the projected 2009 pen, isn’t the least experienced combo in recent Cardinals seasons, though.

That mark belongs to the group of 2006 relievers, ironically during what became the World Championship regular season. That year, beyond Jason Isringhausen and Braden Looper, the other five relievers each had fewer than 100 career innings on the big mound. The man who would become the post-season star, interim closer Adam Wainwright, had collected just six major league outs coming into the year.

That reminds us there is much more to the end game than just innings pitched.

It remains to be seen whether this summer Cardinals fans will be crying, “Why Do Fools Fall in Love?” about this 2009 version of “Frankie and the Teenagers” or whether they’ll be filling the aisles while touting them for a different Hall of Fame.

(As always, special thanks to Lee Sinins’ “Complete Baseball Encyclopedia”, a fast and efficient way to look at players’ partial careers and to answer a million other “what if?” questions, too!)

I was correct on six of the eight, but missed on Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, both of whom were non-tendered by the organization. Randy Flores was also cut loose as expected. Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs last week while Johnson and Flores are free agents.

What’s up now?

For the five Cardinals players remaining, the next window of opportunity began on Monday, January 5. Starting then, these eligible players have ten days to declare their intent to head toward arbitration.

While you may read a lot of hoopla about this filing period, it is merely a formality. All eligible players will certainly file, since in not doing so, they would foolishly give up their arbitration right. (Of course, they could agree to terms on a new contract at any time, which would also take them out of this process.)

What’s on deck?

The next milestone is far more important, as those players who choose to prepare for the possibility of a hearing must exchange 2009 salary figures with their clubs on Monday, January 19.

The player offers his figure, which is almost always highest, and the club presents their amount, the lower of the two. Between then and the actual time of their February arbitration hearing, the two are encouraged to negotiate an agreed-to amount, almost always somewhere in the middle.

In every case, the player will receive a raise. The only question is how much. An important consideration is what other players of comparable results and experience have received in the past. More on that shortly.

In some situations, the sides come to agreement on a multi-year deal instead, but the formal arbitration process is structured around a one-year contract only.

An example of the former is Yadier Molina, who was arbitration-eligible one year ago. Instead of going through the entire process, on January 21st, he and the Cardinals settled on a four-year contract with a fifth option year.

If the two parties can’t come to terms, a three-person arbitration panel will choose one of the two amounts submitted, with no compromise. Supporting arguments are offered by both sides at these hearings, scheduled between February 1 and 21.

Remember that only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, last season, just eight of 110 players who filed went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time.

Forecasting the 2009 Cardinals

So with that backdrop, let’s estimate the potential 2009 value of these five eligible players: Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.

In every case, I will compare the Cardinals’ statistics to players at the same position who had roughly the same service time one year ago. That allows me to use the latter’s 2008 salaries to help estimate what the Cardinals’ 2009 amounts might be.

Remember that I am estimating where the two sides might settle, with the club’s filing potentially lower and the player’s desired amount likely higher. Performance bonuses are included in the Cardinals’ 2008 salaries shown below and could be a contract component for any players that settle prior to arbitration.

When service time is noted, it is listed in “years.days”, where 172 days equals one full season.


Chris Duncan

Though the oft-injured outfielder hasn’t been productive since the early part of 2007, I am comparing his career stats with five other players who were “Super Twos” one year ago. As in the case of all these comparisons, the other players’ numbers listed are their career totals prior to 2008. In other words, their stats at the time they were in the same position as Duncan is now.

Four of the comps are outfielders while the fifth, Casey Kotchman, is a first baseman, a position Duncan also plays at times.

Duncan has demonstrated more power than all the comps, with Jonny Gomes perhaps closest. Yet the Tampa Bay outfielder is a part-timer. The two from the group that were more established starters coming into 2008 were Mark Teahen of the Royals and Ryan Church, then of the Nationals and now of the Mets.

Those two were also the only ones of the five comps who progressed in the arbitration process last year as far as exchanging amounts with their clubs, listed on the far right of the following table. They ended up with salaries in the low $2 millions, while the three others settled for less than $1.5 million last winter.

Because of his injuries and the resulting uncertainty, I would place Duncan’s 2009 value somewhere around $1.5 million.


Ryan Ludwick

The 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner only has two comparable outfielders from last year with between three and four years service. Therefore, I added a third player, Xavier Nady, who had just over four years coming into last season.

Toronto’s Alex Rios is more of a multi-tools guy with a longer track record than Ludwick. Nady is less productive than the Cardinal. Probably the best comp is Colorado’s Brad Hawpe, with a little better batting average and on-base percentage, but a bit less power.

Last year, Hawpe asked for $4.35 million heading into arbitration while the Rockies countered with $3.58 million. The two sides settled on $3.925 million. Hawpe has just one top 25 MVP placement and no All-Star or Silver Slugger-type recognition but has been more consistent over time.

Given that, somewhere around $4 million would seem a good place for Ludwick.


Rick Ankiel

As was the case last year, the uniqueness of Ankiel’s career progression means there are no rock-solid comps for him. Still, there were two MLB-5 outfielders last winter, or three if you count Casey Blake, who is primarily a third baseman but also has played the outfield extensively. For illustration, I added a fourth outfielder, Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer, who was at that time just a couple of weeks short of five years of service.

To be fair to Ankiel, I included his hitting stats only from his time as an outfielder, excluding those from his days as a pitcher. The Cardinal’s slugging is superior to the others, while his average and on-base marks are credible in comparison to them.

In terms of counting stats in a single season, the story is different however. Two of the five have hit as many as 25 home runs as Ankiel did in 2008. That was Craig Monroe’s 28 in 2006 and Blake also with 28 back in 2004. Compared to Ankiel’s 71 RBI last season, Juan Rivera has topped him once, Monroe and Cuddyer twice each and Blake three times.

Ankiel should be able to argue that with more at-bats, he could eclipse the counting stats generated by either Blake or Cuddyer. But that is future potential, not what has been accomplished to date.

While a look forward isn’t fair for this exercise, it is worth looking into Rivera’s situation in a bit more depth. After not quite reaching 300 at-bats in total over the past two seasons due to injury, as a free agent, he recently scored a three-year, $12.75 deal to return to the Angels. Rivera’s 2009 salary will be $3.25 million.

Monroe is currently a free agent and will make considerably less in 2009 than his $3.83 million last season, as his career is on a downward spiral.

For 2009, one might conclude that Ankiel could make as much as Rivera or Monroe, but having not completed more than a full season as an MLB outfielder, not as much as the far more established Cuddyer or Blake. Let’s call it no higher than $3.25 million, since Ankiel’s career number of at-bats remain considerably less than the others.

Of all the estimates, this could be the most volatile. Remember that Ryan Howard made $10 million as a Super Two last year after winning a hearing in which the Phillies had offered $7 million. Is Ankiel worth less than half of that?


Brad Thompson

When choosing comps for the right-handed swingman, I had 25 relievers who were MLB-3’s last year to choose from. I selected the seven who had progressed far enough in the arbitration process to exchange figures with their clubs.

It seems pretty clear that a player like Thompson should expect to make around a million dollars plus or minus. Brad’s ERA tends to the high side and his strikeouts are low, so despite his stingy walk rate, I would aim for an even $1.0 million.

Todd Wellemeyer

Again, this one is a bit tricky since Wellemeyer has over three years as a reliever and less than two as a starter. Given his current role is that of a starter one year from free agency, I used that population. Unfortunately, there was but one MLB-5 starting pitching comp from last season, now-free agent Oliver Perez. I added the three MLB-4 starters from last off-season to fill out the analysis.

Perez is one of the eight players across MLB that actually made it to his hearing, where he defeated his employers at the time, the Mets, to the tune of $6.5 million. Yet it could be argued that Perez is more accomplished than Wellemeyer.

Of the three career starters with one fewer year of total experience, Detroit’s Nate Robertson scored a three-year deal with a $4.25 million salary the first season, while a pair of Brewers, Claudio Vargas and injured Chris Capuano, each ended up with under $4 million.

Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.


Summary

Here are the projected differences in salaries from year-to-year for these five. Who said arbitration isn’t expensive?

If these estimates are anywhere near correct, the Cardinals could end up committing an incremental amount of over $10 million in 2009 just to keep these five players wearing the Birds on the Bat this coming season. On the average, their raises would be just under 300%.


Several tips of the cap are offered. One is to arbitration expert Bill Gilbert, who has provided valuable consulting assistance on the process. Another is to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the source for partial career data, as well as answers to a million other questions, too. Finally, a nod to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, always an invaluable resource.

The two had lost precious ground in their attempts to seize the two left-handed spots in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen and as a result, were among three players non-tendered by the club at Friday’s midnight EST deadline. Infielder Aaron Miles was the other.

There were two other important reasons for these players being cut loose. One is money and the other is roster spots. These players three could have each earned several million via arbitration while there are replacements coming up behind them still making only six figures.

Two lefties gone

Flores, 33, had his time in the St. Louis spotlight, playing a headline role while pitching in 185 games for the Cards from 2005 through 2007, but began to decline in the second half of 2007.

Last season, his fifth in the organization, was a complete washout between injury and ineffectiveness. Flores passed through waivers unclaimed last summer on his way to a demotion to Memphis.

Despite over three years of major league service time, the injury-prone Johnson has only pitched in 77 big-league games. Once a top organizational prospect, the 27-year-old was selected by the Oakland A’s in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft, but was returned to St. Louis during spring training.

Since, he has been slowed by a myriad of arm problems. Johnson’s St. Louis highlight may have been his team-leading ten appearances and four holds during the magical 2006 post-season.

Left-handed relief alternatives aplenty

In recent weeks, the Cardinals have added a host of others from the left side. They include Charlie Manning via waivers from Washington, the former free agent from Tampa Bay, Trever Miller, and minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, also invited to major league camp.

The Cards have stated they are still in search of another lefty, with former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes a prime target. All will compete for likely two roster spots at the major league level this coming spring.

Miles also gone (again)

Of the three non-tenders, Miles was perhaps the biggest surprise, but perhaps not.

The switch-hitting infielder, who will turn 32 on Monday, was in the same situation one year ago and was also non-tendered by the Cardinals. That way, the team could avoid the arbitration process with Miles, where the club could end up being forced to overpay to keep him. Surprisingly, the two sides reunited in January when Miles was given $1.4 million to return to St. Louis for 2008.

After a solid year backing up the middle infield and even getting starts in the outfield, I thought Miles would be asked back in 2009. Perhaps that could still happen, but not via the arbitration process.

Nick Punto: Over $4M per year

Market realities

Though I had projected that the Cardinals would tender Miles a contract, I second guessed myself as recently as Friday. That is when the Minnesota Twins re-signed their utility infielder Nick Punto to an eye-opening two-year, $8.5 million deal.

The 30-year-old Punto, playing a comparable role to Miles for the Twins, has a career line of .252/.319/.332 over the equivalent of roughly five MLB seasons. Miles’ line is .289/.329/.364 over his time with the White Sox, Colorado and the Cardinals.

So, if Punto can fetch $4.25 million per year on a two-year deal, isn’t Miles worth at least $5 million? Considering that view of the current market, I can see why the Cardinals took the cautious route here.

Miles is a handy player to have around, but not at that kind of price.

Infield alternatives

While they may still go outside for a Miles replacement if he does not return, the Cardinals do have alternatives. Several younger, cheaper and less-experienced in-house players already on the 40-man roster include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden and Tyler Greene.

Ryan has the most time in the majors of the three but lacks consistency. That translates into less confidence shown by the coaching staff. The 26-year-old has no minor league options remaining, which means he has to either make the big league club in the spring or pass through waivers before heading back to Triple-A.

The Olympian Barden was originally claimed off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2007 season. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals can decide about the 27-year-old. Last spring, they took him off the 40-man, when he went unclaimed, then later re-added him. Barden has yet to impress in two end-of-season call-ups. Despite a decent season in Memphis, Barden received a grand total of nine September at-bats with St. Louis in 2008. Not inspiring.

Greene, taken just two picks after top organizational prospect Colby Rasmus in 2005, has long been touted for his potential, but had yet to deliver until 2008. The shortstop had a decent season between Springfield and Memphis and for the first time as a professional, was moved all around the infield during his stint in the Arizona Fall League where he looked fine defensively. That tryout was surely not coincidental.

Second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir also still sits on the 40-man roster, likely on the strength of a .407 OBP put up in 2007 between Springfield and Memphis. His 2008 mark was a more realistic .352, but any future shot at St. Louis seems unclear.

What’s next?

All three non-tendered players, Flores, Johnson and Miles, are officially free agents, available to sign with any team with no penalties or restrictions, including the Cardinals – if both sides are willing.

As expected, five other Cardinals were tendered offers for 2009 by the deadline, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson. These players are bound to the Cards for next season, with the amounts of their salaries still to be negotiated over the next two months.

With these moves, the Cardinals 40-man roster is currently at 34 players. This gives the organization plenty of flexibility to make other moves as the 2008-2009 hot stove season continues.

The eight include pitchers Randy Flores, Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson and Todd Wellemeyer, infielder Aaron Miles and outfielders Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick.

Of this group, I project only Flores is at serious risk of receiving his walking papers. Given the left-handers that have been added in recent weeks says nothing good about Flores’ job security. They are minor leaguer Ian Ostlund and 40-man additions Charlie Manning (off waivers from Washington) and free agent Trever Miller (from Tampa Bay).

The Cardinals are still looking for a lefty and a closer. If he is affordable enough, free agent Brian Fuentes could be the man for both job. Add Johnson to the mix and you have potentially six lefties fighting for two or three jobs at most.

That could mean trouble for Flores’ continued employment with the Cardinals.

For more details on the process and my logic on all eight players, check out my free article on Scout.com.