Pictured in order by rows: John Mozeliak, John Vuch, Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter, Tyler Greene, Zack Cox, Rafael Furcal, Adam Wainwright.

The Cardinal Nation subscribers should check out my article on the main site where I posted audio from each of the above and others. I expect to do the same for Sunday and Monday as well.

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Note to readers: I wrote this post prior to year-end, obviously long before Thursday evening’s news that Dave Duncan is taking an indefinite leave of absence as Cardinals pitching coach. Rather than update this article, I decided to leave it in its original form. After all, the Duncan news is clearly a 2012 story.

This announcement has the potential of impacting several top stories beyond just number five. Depending on how and in what manner the team decides to replace Duncan, a Derek Lilliquist move would affect the bullpen, story number four, and potentially Mike Matheny’s first year as well (honorable mention).

First, we looked at the top 20 stories affecting the St. Louis Cardinals this past year. Not surprisingly, the list was dominated by the late- and post-season success of the club, along with the departures of the team’s manager and best player. Quite a lot to consume!

Now it is time for me to make my annual predictions for the top story lines of this New Year, as well.

Right up front, I will set aside the easiest and most logical entry – the results of the 2012 team on the field. The nature of that story has yet to be determined, shaped by the items discussed here and many more plot lines not yet developed.

As I compiled my list and rankings, I considered the staying power of the story, how long it might remain in the headlines as well as its potential short- and long-term impact – on the 2012 Cardinals and the organization’s future.

Without further ado, here are my projected top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2012. As always, your comments are welcome below.

1. Wainwright’s comeback

As most everyone knows, last spring, the Cardinals’ co-ace required season-ending Tommy John surgery to reconstruct the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow. Adam Wainwright is now working his way back and is said to be ahead of schedule – assumed by many to be poised to pick up right where he left off in 2010.

The bar is high as his most recent season included a career-best 20 wins and a second-place showing in the National League Cy Young Award voting. It remains to be seen how quickly the 30-year-old can live up to those lofty expectations, but it could be a major swing point for the 2012 Cardinals season.

The Cardinals have an interesting challenge with Wainwright’s contract situation. While his 2012 and 2013 options have been picked up, the time may be right to try to secure a new long-term deal – from a buy-low perspective. The price should only go up once Wainwright returns to his past dominance. Yet that is the very reason I question why the pitcher would consider negotiating a new contract now. He should be in the absolute prime of his career and can likely only expect more money later on.

2. Molina’s contract

Just as his friend and former teammate Albert Pujols held all the contract cards in his negotiations with the Cardinals, so does catcher Yadier Molina. The 29-year-old is entering the final year of his contract signed prior to the 2008 season and could decide to test free agency for the first time. As such, his situation is more pressing than Wainwright’s.

Coming off his best season offensively in 2011 and already considered the top defensive catcher in the game, Molina is positioned perfectly to score a big payday – if that is what the elite backstop desires.

Watching to see how closely Molina’s situation parallels Pujols’ and of course, what the end result will be, should be one of the most-talked about storylines of 2012.

3. Killer B’s reunion (sort of)

Put aside the fact that Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are long gone from the game. The Cardinals have re-assembled the two remaining active members of the Houston Astros’ ‘Killer B’s’ from last decade.

Both Carlos Beltran, signed by the Cardinals to a two-year deal as a free agent in December, and Lance Berkman, back for a second year with St. Louis in 2012, are mid-30’s players with checkered health histories.

Likely to bat second and third in Mike Matheny’s lineup, the late-career productivity of the two should be a prime determiner of how far this season’s Cardinals will go.

Looking ahead 12 months, the player most affected by the second year of Beltran’s contract may be his old-new teammate Berkman. If Allen Craig continues to improve, Berkman may find himself pushed out of a job in 2013, as Matt Holliday carries a long-term contract. But, first things first.

4. Young bullpen

Even if veteran left-hander J.C. Romero makes the 2012 Cardinals’ opening day bullpen, the relief corps will be among the youngest, if not the youngest, in MLB. Barring any signings or trades between now and then, the other six members will all be under 30 years old. The pen should consist of some combination of Eduardo Sanchez (22), Lance Lynn (24), Marc Rzepczynski (25), Fernando Salas (26), Mitchell Boggs (27), Kyle McClellan (27) and Jason Motte (29).

Motte seems to have a hold on the closer’s job, but four of the others also picked up saves last season. The ability of this very young (and low-cost) bullpen to deliver consistent results may be a big story in this upcoming season.

5. Duncan’s future

Speaking of ensuring those relatively inexperienced pitchers contribute at the level expected, the man most responsible from a guidance perspective is the subject of my next top story prediction.

In my opinion, the key transitional figure between the La Russa and Matheny coaching administrations isn’t Jose Oquendo or Mark McGwire. It has to be pitching coach Dave Duncan. While the 66-year-old is under contract for 2012 and has a 2013 option, some combination of his wife’s poor health and the considerable changes occurring around him on the job could create unstable conditions regarding his future outlook.

Honorable mention: Matheny’s maiden voyage

In reality, the fortune of the new manager will most likely be intertwined with the on-field results of his club, a topic assumed to be among the top stories of the year by default.

Still, there is potential for newsworthiness in how Matheny personally deals with the inevitable ups and downs during his first year in a most pressure-filled job. Replacing a future Hall-of-Famer and leading the defending champion without baseball’s best player present formidable challenges to the new skipper.

Hopefully, his team will be the story, not him.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of 2011 countdown

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The right-hander finished second in the National League in wins (20), ERA (2.42) and complete games (five) that summer. He tied for second in shutouts, was third in innings pitched and fourth in strikeouts, while allowing the third-fewest walks per nine innings in the NL.

After Wainwright came close in 2009 with 19 victories, it became his first 20-win season. He was named a National League All-Star and improved from his 2009 third-place showing in the NL Cy Young Award voting to finish second.

Wainwright seemed to run out of gas late in the season, however. In six starts between August 18 and September 14, he went 1-5 with a 4.73 ERA, a stretch that may have cost him the Cy Young.

On September 27, it was disclosed that Wainwright had been dealing with right elbow stiffness in his prior two starts. Could it have been even longer? The next day, the problem was labeled as not being serious, and was attributed to Wainwright simply having slept awkwardly on his arm.

It did not end there, however. After an MRI and examination by team physician Dr. George Paletta, it was decided that Wainwright would skip his final start of the 2010 season due to what was then called a right forearm muscle strain. A slight tear remaining in the elbow ligament was also noted, a problem first identified in 2004. A rehab route was initially recommended and taken.

Though five months of off-season calendar time then elapsed, it was the briefest time possible on a baseball field. Not long after reporting to spring training camp, on February 21, Wainwright experienced elbow discomfort. One week later, he underwent season-ending Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, formally known as ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction.

In hindsight, having the procedure late in 2010 would have been the ideal route. However, at least the surgery was required early the following spring. That allowed the club – and Kyle McClellan specifically – to prepare for the season knowing Wainwright was out. In July, Edwin Jackson was acquired and essentially filled Wainwright’s rotation spot the rest of the season.

Though surely numerically fitting, the fact this story could rank only number 13 is a tribute to the resiliency demonstrated by the other players on the Cardinals 2011 roster. After all, they went ahead and achieved the ultimate, a World Championship, anyway. (Wainwright still had his place in the victory parade, as the above photo documents.)

The time that passes until Wainwright returns to peak efficiency could be one of the most important Cardinals questions of 2012.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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While losing the staff’s ace before the first official pitch of spring training has been thrown is a major blow to the team’s 2011 title aspirations, the Cardinals have overcome serious injuries in past seasons. Jerry Modene’s article running today on the main TheCardinalNation.com site looks at the top 10 injuries suffered by Cardinals players over the years.

Rarely has a 20-game winner been lost for the entire subsequent season, but it has happened twice in Cardinals history, as I was reminded by researcher Tom Orf. However, neither past occurrence was due to injury. Both were as a result of trades, including what I believe is the worst swap in franchise annals.

Unlike some of Modene’s examples, the Cardinals as a team suffered in both of these cases.

39 years ago yesterday, on February 25, 1972, the Cardinals traded future Hall of Fame pitcher Steve Carlton to the Philadelphia Phillies for pitcher Rick Wise.  I recall being incredibly angry the moment the deal was announced and remain so to this day.

Carlton had won 20 games for the 1971 Cards but had the audacity to ask for a raise. We’ll show him who’s boss, eh Gussie? Lefty was so crushed by the trade that he won 27 games in 1972. He went on to win a total of 241 games, four Cy Young Awards and a World Championship with the Phils. Once Carlton was gone, the Cardinals would not appear in the playoffs for another decade.

Ironically, Busch gave Wise the same salary that Carlton had requested, but the new Cardinal was no Lefty. Wise was good enough to log a pair of 16 win seasons in 1972-73, but the Cardinals dropped from 90 wins in 1971 to just 75 the next year. He was dispatched to Boston in trade that included Reggie Smith as soon as the .500 1973 season ended.

The other 20-win-to-nothing case occurred in 1985-86. Joaquin Andujar was coming off consecutive 20-victory seasons for the National League Champions.

While Andujar’s antics had him on thin ice already, his Game Seven meltdown in the 1985 World Series may have been the last straw. The volatile pitcher felt he was getting squeezed on ball and strike calls and was ejected after bumping home plate umpire Don Denkinger during the dispute. Of course, Denkinger’s blown call at first base the previous evening was viewed to be the pivotal moment of the Series.

Andujar’s reported links to a convicted Pittsburgh drug dealer probably didn’t help his standing, either. Ownership reportedly ordered general manager Dal Maxvill to get rid of Andujar and that he did. On December 10, 1985, six weeks after the bitter loss to the Kansas City Royals, the Cardinals sent their reigning two-time 20-game winner to Oakland in return for catcher Mike Heath and pitcher Tim Conroy.

Neither new player contributed much of anything to a Cardinals team that dropped from 101 wins in 1985 to just 79 the next. Andujar would win just 17 more major league games after leaving St. Louis. Ironically, Tony La Russa became his manager with 79 games remaining in the A’s 1986 schedule.

Cardinals fans can only hope that 2011 will turn out better than either the 1972 or 1986 seasons.

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As St. Louis Cardinals fans know, just last week manager Tony La Russa tried to play off the Albert Pujols contract stalemate on pressure from the Players Union being applied to Pujols to seek top dollar on the open market. Considerable debate ensued as to whether the accusations were real or imagined.

Not only do officials do it, fans join in, too.

Wednesday was an especially bad day for members across the Cardinal Nation as the serious injury to Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright was announced. Thursday’s news confirmed the need for season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Some pointed an accusatory finger at the club’s oft-maligned medical staff for not addressing the problem earlier while others turned their anger on the opponent – specifically, the Cincinnati Reds’ Jonny Gomes.

A report from Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News had the veteran Cincy outfielder singing in the Reds clubhouse on Wednesday in apparent delight over Wainwright’s misfortune.

Another writer, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, witnessed the same event, but offered a different perspective. Later Sheldon contacted Gomes by phone. The player said all the right things, including a denial of any malicious intent, but many suspicious Cardinals fans wrote it off as damage control, backtracking, spin to cut the heat.

This morning, McCoy was the one to backtrack. He said his “70-year-old ears” may have been “hearing things.” McCoy subsequently removed the offending passage from his original Wednesday post and offered his regrets for having written about it.

On Thursday, Gomes told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick that he has “reached out” to the Cardinals  to squash any potential bad feelings from the episode. Update: Gomes has also gone on local radio in St. Louis to explain.

Both managers earlier made politically-correct comments intended to diffuse the situation.

I can understand why Cardinals backers are unhappy about the Reds, stemming from last season’s comments from Brandon Phillips and especially the career-ending injury that Jason LaRue suffered at the cleats of Cincinnati pitcher Johnny Cueto.

On the other hand, Cardinals fans have a well-deserved reputation for being knowledgeable and classy, showing respect for opponents. Overreaction to one writer’s disputed report would seem to go against that grain.

It is completely understandable to be upset over the Wainwright news, but it should probably be left at that.

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With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, second-guessers are already noting that it would have been best for the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright if the pitcher had proceeded with ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction, otherwise known as Tommy John surgery, last fall.

The standard procedure in such cases is to try the rehab route first. That is what was chosen for what was diagnosed as a partial tear. Wainwright was optimistic coming into camp, but the reality is that his elbow didn’t last through two weeks of practice.

If Tommy John surgery is required, Wainwright would have missed the entire 2011 season either way, but October 2010 surgery would have given him an important five-month head start on his 12-month minimum rehab.

As it is, one would have to assume that Wainwright may not be fully ready to step back into a full workload in the rotation to begin the 2012 season.

From this come some interesting contract considerations. This winter, the Cardinals will have to decide what to do with Chris Carpenter’s $15 million option for the 2012 season, with the alternative of paying a $1 million buyout.

Would the club head into the Albert Pujols’ negotiations this fall and the 2012 campaign with neither of their co-aces on the mound? Do they believe they can they afford all three stars? Will that be viewed as enough?

Before the acquisition and re-signing of Matt Holliday, Pujols’ mantra was all about having a competitive team around him, and that it was not about the money. Might the Wainwright injury and future plans for Carpenter affect the Pujols negotiations? FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is among those already fearing the worst.

Wainwright will make $6.5 million this season. Assuming TJS is in the offing, he will be on the disabled list the entire year. There is also a $21 million, two-year option in place for 2012 and 2013, with conditions. The options were triggered by Wainwright’s top five Cy Young Award finish last season, but hinge on him finishing 2011 off the disabled list. The possibility of the latter now seems out the window.

The timing of his surgery is probably irrelevant in the financial context, however. Given the high success rate from TJS, it seems likely the Cardinals will pick up the below-market value options on Wainwright’s 2012 and 2013 seasons.

The remainder of the rotation stacks up as follows.

Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse are under contract for 2012 and there is a mutual 2013 option for Westbrook as well. Jaime Garcia will remain under team control through 2014 before becoming eligible for free agency.

Of the big five, only Lohse will not be a TJS survivor assuming Wainwright proceeds as expected. Carpenter had the surgery in 2007 with Westbrook and Garcia having undergone the procedure the next year.

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This past season, Wainwright stepped up his highest level of performance as a professional. The right-hander not only topped the Cardinals in almost all pitching categories, but was among the National League leaders as well. Wainwright finished second in the NL in wins (20), ERA (2.42) and complete games (five). He tied for second in shutouts, was third in innings pitched and fourth in strikeouts, while allowing the third-fewest walks per nine innings.

After coming close in 2009 with 19 victories, this was the 28-year-old’s first 20-win season. It is a milestone Carpenter reached once, during his Cy Young Award season of 2005. Both Wainwright and Carpenter were named 2010 National League All-Stars. Adam tossed a scoreless inning in the July 13 contest, won by the Senior Circuit.

What Carpenter does possess that Wainwright does not is that Cy Young Award, though the younger pitcher is on a positive trajectory, having improved his placement in the vote in each of the last two years.

Wainwright moved up to second in the 2010 NL Cy Young Award race, this time behind Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay. The Cardinals starter received 28 votes for second, three for third and one for fifth from the 32 Baseball Writers Association of America voters, two from each NL city. Halladay took every first place vote for a 224 to 122 total.

The season prior, Waino had finished third with Carpenter second in the Cy Young voting, collecting 90 and 94 points respectively. In one of the closest three-way races ever, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum won with 100 points in the balloting. It is worthy to note Wainwright had the most first-place votes of all candidates.

Though it appeared that the 2010 competition might go down to the wire, a late-season slump doomed Wainwright’s Cy Young Award chances. Between August 18 and September 14, he went 1-5 with a 4.73 ERA.

Despite that rough period, looking at the season by months, Wainwright was amazingly consistent. He won three or four games in each month from April through September/October. His ERAs ranged from a low of 1.85 in July to a high of just 3.09 in the final period. Wainwright’s 230 1/3 innings pitched was just 2 2/3 frames short of his career peak, set the year prior.

With that milestone 20^th win accomplished on September 24 and his team out of the playoff hunt, Wainwright was held out of his final start for precautionary reasons. The precise problem was vague after the pitcher attributed it to simply having slept wrong on his arm. Reports of elbow tightness and a forearm strain followed, which led to an MRI. Rest was prescribed.

The 28-year-old Wainwright completed his fourth season as a major league starter while Carpenter is now 35 years of age, having become a professional back in 1994. The two will surely be pitching for the Cardinals this coming season, but the final passing of the torch would occur if it turns out that 2011 becomes their last year together.

Carpenter is under contract through 2011 but there seems no guarantee his $15M club option for 2012 will be picked up. The club could instead pay a $1 million buyout. Wainwright is under team control through 2013 with a below-market contract wisely negotiated by general manager John Mozeliak early in his tenure.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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Where we last left this discussion, there seemed no correlation between a top season by three St. Louis Cardinals offensive leaders and the club making the playoffs. My natural curiosity led me from hitting to pitching, which is the subject of this article.

For each season of the last decade, the Albert Pujols years, I selected the Cardinals’ top three starting pitchers based on ERA+, a good summary cross-season measurement. Despite the five-man rotation, I chose three because that is the same sample size previously used for the hitters. That selection will become even more clear later in this article.

For visual clarity, I left pitchers in the same column from year to year.

* partial season
# career averages

The first thing that jumped out at me was the passing of the torch of staff ace from Matt Morris at the end of the prior decade to Woody Williams to Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright, with a few gap seasons in the middle.

Another thing that caught my eye was the ever-changing names in the third column. In this case, the third is not based on salary or rotation order, but in terms of results – being one of the top three in the rotation as measured by ERA+.

It is amazing to me that while two of the top three often remained constant from year to year, the identity of the third top pitcher changed ten times in ten years!

Looking ahead to 2011, I could have assumed Jaime Garcia’s second season will be superior to Jake Westbrook’s, but I didn’t. With just one full season under Garcia’s belt, that seemed presumptuous when Westbrook already has a consistent body of work. (For completeness, Kyle Lohse’s career ERA+ is 93.)

As in the earlier analysis, I assumed career ERA+ marks for Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright next season.

Summing the top three pitchers’ annual ERA+ marks and ranking the seasons from high to low provides this:

* partial season
# career averages

Four of the top five seasons were playoff years, with 2010 the lone exception. 2011 slots in at number eight of 11, but if Garcia’s career ERA+ of 133 was used instead of Westbrook’s 101, the additional 32 points would vault the 2011 projection up to number five.

Not wanting to prolong this process, I did take it one final step to try to tie up the loose ends. I am going to list it here rather than running yet another similarly-themed piece tomorrow.

In perhaps some bad chemistry, I added the OPS+ of the top three hitters each year to the ERA+ of the top three starting pitchers and re-ranked the Pujols years.

# career averages

While the top years changed slightly, the end result was similar to the pitchers’ in that four of the top five scoring seasons ended with a playoff berth. Whether there is real correlation here, coincidence or something in between, I don’t know.

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Though the St. Louis Cardinals seem to be falling just short of the major awards across the National League, it is time once again to recognize one top player on the club, the best-hitting pitcher of the year. Previously, I had bestowed the title of the Allen Watson Award on this recognition.

While former Cardinals greats such as Bob Gibson may first come to mind when considering hitting prowess by a St. Louis pitcher, Watson, an otherwise obscure pitcher who spent less than three years with the mid-1990’s Cardinals, is worthy of having this award named in his honor.

In the modern history of the Cardinals franchise, no pitcher with at least 30 plate appearances in a single season has ever approached Watson’s success at the plate in 1995. Watson’s .975 OPS that season was so extraordinary that the next closest mark by any other qualifying pitcher in the last 110 years was just .880, posted by Mark Mulder in 2006. Bob Forsch logged three of the top ten seasons in team history.

The winner of the 2010 Allen Watson Award is the same as in 2009, Adam Wainwright. His .457 OPS was tops among the four qualifiers, those pitchers with at least 30 place appearances. All pitchers with PA’s this season are listed for reference. Data courtesy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

At the plate, Wainwright collected hits in 13 of his 32 starts in 2010, with his only multi-hit game on August 1 at home against Pittsburgh. In that contest, the 29-year-old went 2-for-3 with an RBI and a run scored. Wainwright plated three runs, half his season total, with a July 4 double against Milwaukee. Alas, he fanned his other three times up that day.

Wainwright was called upon to pinch hit four times this past season, twice in extra-inning contests. Oddly, they were almost exactly four weeks apart in late May, June, July and August. He went hitless each time, but did reach once on an error and came around to score.

Had Brad Penny stayed healthy long enough to receive ten more plate appearances and Jeff Suppan had seen enough more innings to have seven more PA’s, the two could have passed Wainwright as the 2010 Watson winner. Of course, they would have needed to maintain their respective paces, which would not have been assured.

Wainwright’s .457 OPS may be best among his qualifying peers, but is not particularly impressive, especially when compared to his own past results. 2010 represents the fourth consecutive season in which his OPS dropped since his amazingly small sample six-PA 2006 debut.

In fact, the Cardinals pitching staff at a whole had a worse season than the year prior in most offensive categories, though they did drive in four more runs and take five additional walks.

Here’s hoping hitting coach Mark McGwire will spend some more time in the cage with the pitchers and help reverse the trend.

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Is there any doubt that St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is a workhorse – and is an extraordinary one at that?

Heading into Friday’s action, the Cardinals had played in 113 games this season. In his 25 starts to date, Wainwright accumulated 17 wins and a 1.99 ERA. Researcher Tom Orf helped me put Wainwright’s pace into a most impressive historical context.

The table below lists all MLB starters over the last half century with 20 or more starts and an ERA under two through their respective teams’ first 113 games.

Since 2000, Wainwright is among only five pitchers to have accomplished this. In addition to Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez and Chris Young, Florida’s Josh Johnson, who the Cardinals faced last Friday in Miami, is the other. *

(* It should be noted that since this data was pulled, Johnson’s ERA “ballooned” to 2.24 as he yielded six runs in 2 2/3 innings at Cincinnati Friday night. As such, if this list was reflected results through 114 games, Johnson’s name would vanish.)

Others who met these criteria in past decades are also listed.

One has to go all the way back to Dwight Gooden in 1985 to find a pitcher with more wins (18) than Waino and a sub-2.00 ERA at this point of the season. Roger Clemens also had 17 wins in 1997.

The common thread? Both Doc and the Rocket took home the Cy Young Award following those seasons.

This week, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch penned an in-depth article that is definitely worth a read. It looks at Wainwright’s 2010 candidacy from a number of angles. Since the voters have proven to be all over the map in their actual votes, I personally tend to not spend a lot of time trying to guess what they should do, let alone what they might do.

Instead, as a quick-and-dirty measure, I often refer to the ESPN Cy Young Predictor. That tool uses a Rob Neyer/Bill James formula to forecast the top contenders and leaders based on stats of past winners. Wainwright currently has a comfortable lead in the race for the 2010 NL award using this view.

However, before getting too excited, it is appropriate to note that Wainwright also had the highest score in ESPN’s formula last year. We all learned how a few voters who see the world differently than others can dramatically affect a tight competition and toss all the predictions out the window.

Wainwright and his supporters have to hope that he can further distance himself from the pack this time around and make it a one-horse race.

MLB pitchers through 113 games, season, minimum 20 starts and an ERA under 2.00, ordered by ERA within decades, 1960-2010

As an interesting sidelight, note that 11 pitchers met these criteria in 1968, The Year of the Pitcher. Seeing a name like Jim Nash alongside greats like Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver and Denny McLain helps explain why the mound was lowered as a result. It should also be noted that prior to 1967, there was only one annual Cy Young Award encompassing both leagues.

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St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright is on a roll, but it isn’t just a recent phenomenon. He tossed six scoreless innings to earn his 14th win of the season in the Cardinals’ 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday at Busch Stadium.

Wainwright extended his 2010 record to 14-5 while lowering his ERA to 2.02. The right-hander has just one no-decision in his 20 starts this season and is averaging seven innings per start and 8.2 strikeouts against just 2.3 walks per nine innings.

In his Saturday win, Wainwright became the first Cardinals pitcher since at least 1920 to win his first 10 decisions at home. In his ten starts at Busch this season, Wainwright is 10-0 with a 1.31 ERA, the lowest home ERA of any starter in the National League.

In an amazing measure of consistency, Wainwright extended his streak of home quality starts to 25. Those are games in which he yielded three earned runs or less and pitched six or more innings.

The last time the 28-year-old did not toss a quality start at Busch Stadium was on May 5, 2009, when he allowed seven runs in six innings pitched. The opponent was none other than the Philadelphia Phillies, his opposition again this Thursday.

In his only outing against the Phils since, Wainwright took a no-decision at Citizens Bank Park this May 4 despite yielding just one run over eight innings. Due to the unbalanced schedule used by MLB, the two clubs generally only have one home and one away series each season.

The May 5, 2009 home defeat was Wainwright’s only career loss to Philadelphia in seven appearances, including five starts. He has a 2-1 record with a 2.68 ERA when facing the Phillies. His career ERA at home against all clubs is even lower at 2.46.

As Waino faces off against the Phillies and Cole Hamels at Busch Stadium on Thursday afternoon’s finale of the four-game set, it will be his 58^th career start at home. Through 57, that 2.46 ERA is the second-lowest by any St. Louis starter of those with at least 50 home starts since at least 1920. Only the “Cranky Yankee”, John Tudor, had a lower career home ERA. Wainwright’s teammate, Chris Carpenter, is fifth.

St. Louis Cardinals pitchers, lowest home ERA, 50 starts or more since 1920

Special thanks to Tom Orf for the data table above.

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It is unusual to start with a disclaimer, but that is exactly what I am doing.

I have been thinking about this for a long time, but out of respect for the long-term greatness of Chris Carpenter, I have not written about it. Even now, I want to be clear that I am not diminishing the talents of the former Cy Young Award winner, or worse, writing him off in any way.

What am I talking about?

It feels like the very unofficial and only-to-be-whispered mantle of “the Cardinals ace” has passed from Carp to Adam Wainwright.

Of course, this title doesn’t matter in terms of the team winning games or anything else of substance. Yet, in every player’s career, there comes a time when he is no longer top dog. For the last year or so, I have called the two “co-aces.”

Given his years and experience, Carpenter will remain the dean of the staff as long as he remains active and wearing the birds on the bat, but at least in 2010, he may no longer be its best starter.

Though both Carpenter and Wainwright were named to the National League All-Star team, it was Wainwright who was chosen to pitch in the game on Tuesday night. Looking at their respective numbers this season, the right decision was made.

To summarize, in the same number of starts, Wainwright has more wins, more complete games, more shutouts, more innings pitched, a substantially lower ERA, a lower walk rate, a lower home run allowed rate and a higher strikeout rate. He also has more losses, pretty much the only category in which Carpenter is on top.

Not in the above table, but Wainwright also leads in quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer runs allowed) 16-13. The Cardinals have an identical 13-6 record in games each started.

Once upon a time, in 2005, Carp was at the peak of his game and was named as the NL’s All-Star starter. In 2006, coming off his Cy Young Award campaign, he was on the team but did not appear. Later that season, Wainwright starred as the unlikely closer for the World Champions. Carpenter hadn’t been back to the Midsummer Classic since – until Tuesday night.

That is when I finally decided to write this.

Carpenter is now 35 years of age, having become a professional back in 1994, while the 28-year-old Wainwright is in his fourth season as a major league starter. Carpenter is under contract through 2011 with a pricey $15M club option or a $1 million buyout for 2012. Wainwright is under team control through 2013 with a below-market contract wisely negotiated by general manager John Mozeliak early in his tenure.

In their most recent prior national popularity test, Carp and Waino finished second and third in the 2009 National League Cy Young Award voting, collecting 94 and 90 points respectively. In one of the closest three-way races ever, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum won with 100 points in the Baseball Writers Association of America balloting. It is worthy to note Wainwright had the most first-place votes of all candidates and Carpenter the highest second-place standing.

The voting concluded prior to the post-season. Given the NLDS game one start, Carpenter yielded two runs in the first inning and four over five innings in the loss at Dodger Stadium. Wainwright pitched brilliantly in game two, allowing just one run on three hits over eight innings, but along with his teammates fell victim to the Matt Holliday-Ryan Franklin collapse in the bottom of the ninth.

Last season, Carpenter won the Players Choice National League Comeback Player of the Year Award for the second time. He previously took the honor in 2004. Wainwright is still on the way up, with 2010 being his first-ever All-Star selection.

As noted above, in terms of effectiveness, Wainwright has moved ahead of his elder in a number of categories, but any passing of this title should not be a rash decision. Expanding the aperture just a bit makes it far less of a slam dunk.

Since Carp’s most recent comeback began last year, I also pulled the numbers of each from the start of the 2009 season.

Waino pro: Wainwright has started six more games than Carp and has six more wins during that time.

Carp pro: Wainwright also has six more losses.

Waino pro: Wainwright has a lower ERA (2.44 to 2.66) and a higher strikeout rate.

Carp pro: Carpenter has a lower walk rate and a lower home run allowed rate (though the latter gap has been closing quickly).

Of course, the reality is that Cardinals fans should enjoy both of these excellent pitchers, with the next opportunity coming when Carpenter starts game one of the post-break schedule on Thursday against the Dodgers at Busch Stadium. Wainwright will get the ball again on Saturday.

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Adam Wainwright doubled the St. Louis Cardinals’ lead from three to six over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday afternoon with his three-run, two-base hit off fellow All-Star Yovani Gallardo. The blow, along with Wainwright’s complete-game pitching, helped to erase the memories of Saturday’s equally disappointing defeat.

It was only the third bases-clearing double by a Cardinals pitcher since 1990 and first since 2001.

Following are all 37 three-or-more RBI hits by Cardinals pitchers since 1952, thanks to researcher Tom Orf.

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The St. Louis Cardinals’ last two series-ending games have been major disappointments. Co-ace Adam Wainwright’s uncharacteristically poor and brief four-inning start on Thursday to close the Toronto set began an unenviable streak of short starts. It is one that Chris Carpenter will be trying to end when he faces Arizona at Busch Stadium on Monday night.

Jaime Garcia also had his worst outing of the season on Sunday, going just two innings in Kansas City while yielding five earned runs.

In between the two unexpected bookends, Jeff Suppan and Blake Hawksworth went just five innings each on Friday and Saturday, respectively. That was more expected.

As such, the starting staff returns home hoping to end their unenviable run of going five innings or less in four consecutive games.

It is a stretch of rough pitching the likes of which has been seen by Cardinals fans just three times in the last three seasons – none last season, once in 2008 and twice in 2007. The worst streak was six such games, accrued in September 2007.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of five or fewer innings, summary, 2007-current

Braden Looper was the constant in all three prior stretches.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of five or fewer innings, detail, 2007-current

If one expands the aperture to streaks of six innings or less, one more bad run in 2008 is added and two more in 2007, a very rough season for the defending World Champions.

St. Louis Cardinals, consecutive starts of six or fewer innings, summary, 2007-current

Likely one of the reasons that the youthful Cardinals relief corps came into Sunday with the second lowest ERA in the National League at 3.09 was that they haven’t been overused. In fact, almost ¾ of NL bullpens, 11 of 16, have pitched more innings than St. Louis’ 210 this season.

Obviously, if the starters will continue to exit as early as they have over the most recent four games, the bullpen will surely suffer as well.

Then, there is the Cardnials’ inconsistent offense…

(Thanks to Tom Orf for providing the game detail.)

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With all the questions about the back end of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, it seems worthwhile to remember just how successful the front end is.

Coming into Sunday’s action, the Cardinals are the only team in the Major Leagues with three starters with ERAs under three, minimum 12 starts. In fact, there are only 22 such pitchers in the league.  They are listed below.

On the bad side, the Cardinals three starters with ERA under 2.55, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia, aren’t getting enough victories. The three have just 21 wins in their 38 total starts coming into Sunday.

Only 15 starting pitchers across MLB have ERAs under 2.55. The only team besides the Cardinals with more than one is the Tampa Bay Rays with two. Ten teams have one.

Starting pitchers (22) with ERA under 3.00, MLB, 2010 through June 12

Thanks to Tom Orf for his research on the subject of this article.

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When Adam Wainwright took the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night, he allowed four earned runs in six innings.  The right-hander was saddled with his fourth loss in 12 decisions as the Cardinals were swept by the Dodgers.

In so doing, Wainwright failed in his attempt for a tie for the second-longest streak of seven innings or more allowing one run or less since Tony La Russa became manager for the 1996 season.

Wainwright’s streak ended at three with the longest in the last 15 years being Chris Carpenter’s seven straight in 2005. The others with four whom Wainwright tried to join are Woody Williams (2001), Matt Morris and Alan Benes (both 1997).

Cardinals pitchers, 7+ Innings & allowing 1 run or less, game streak, since 1996

Thanks to researcher Tom Orf for providing the table.

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It was Wainwright’s first entry on the list, however, where 11 pitchers had at least three. Bob Gibson being on top is not surprising, but some of the other names are.

Here are all the Cardinals pitchers with three or more, followed by the entire list.

Cardinals two-or-fewer hit complete games, three or more, 1952-2010

Cardinals two-or-fewer hit complete games, complete, 1952-2010

Thanks to researcher Tom Orf for providing the detailed data table shown immediately above.

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It was a most disappointing outing for St. Louis Cardinals right-handed starting pitcher Adam Wainwright in San Diego on Tuesday night. The 28-year-old allowed just four base hits in seven innings, yet took the 1-0 loss.

Wainwright looked almost unhittable, fanning a career-high-tying 12 Padres, including their best hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, three times. Yet a solo home run to journeyman Jerry Hairston in the second inning was the difference-maker as the Cardinals quiet offense allowed no wiggle room whatsoever.

It was the 64th 12-or-more strikeout performance by a Cardinal since 1952. (See complete list below.) Hall of Famer Bob Gibson has almost half of them with 30. Wainwright became the eighth St. Louis pitcher to have multiple 12 K games during that time.

Oddly, Wainwright didn’t get the win in his other 12-strikeout game, either. He received a no-decision after yielding just one run in nine innings against the San Francisco Giants last July 1. The Cardinals went on to win that game in ten innings.

The last time a Cardinal pitcher had 13 strikeouts was almost four years ago when Chris Carpenter did it on June 13, 2006. Others prior to that were Matt Morris on 9/19/2001, Todd Stottlemyre twice, on 5/11/1998 and 5/15/1996 and Gibson who had 14 on 8/30/1972.

Other than Wainwright, Gibson is the only Cardinal pitcher to strike out 12 Padres. He did it three times: 8/12/1970 (13 K-14 IP), 6/17/1970 (13 K), 7/30/1969 (13 K). Gibby won all three games, a much better outcome than the Cardinals suffered on Tuesday.

Wainwright’s outing was the 31st time in MLB history that a pitcher has allowed one run with 12 or more strikeouts and lost the game. Two of those were by Arizona’s Randy Johnson within a ten-day span against the Cardinals in 1999. Both times, The Big Unit came up short compared to St. Louis’ Jose Jimenez, who tossed a no-hitter and two-hitter those days.

St. Louis Cardinals pitcher, 12 or more strikeouts, game, 1952-current

As always, a special thanks to Tom Orf for his research included above.

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Coming into this past weekend, seven major league starting pitchers were working to extend their season-opening streaks of quality starts* of seven games or more. Three of the seven were from just one of the 30 teams, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Now the list is down to five, and just one is a Cardinal.

After taking losses in subpar outings in Cincinnati on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Adam Wainwright and Brad Penny ended their 2010 quality runs at seven each. Only Friday night winner Jaime Garcia carries the Cardinals quality flag forward into this week.

The Cardinals certainly have nothing to be embarrassed about. Even after the two non-quality starts over the weekend, the starting staff has 30 in 38 games, the most in MLB.

Wainwright and Penny had been at this even longer. Going back to include the end of last season, Wainwright’s quality start streak ended at 12, while Penny’s was stopped at nine.

Researcher Tom Orf went back into the annals of baseball and could find no other staff since at least 1920 (excluding the years of 1940-51) to match the 2010 Cardinals with three pitchers compiling season-opening quality start streaks of at least seven games.

* A quality start is defined as an outing of six innings or more while allowing three or fewer runs.

Quality start streak to begin season, seven games or more, MLB, 1920-present (excluding 1940-51)