An extraordinary number of national sites seemed to have just run with the standard AP story. Several other local papers put the deal into the context of their own team’s catcher close to hitting the open market.

Here are a few of the summary comments, with links to the full articles. More to be added as I find them.

Ken Rosenthal, FOX Sports

These deals are easy to rationalize — and easy to criticize, too. I understand why some rival clubs are annoyed with the Cardinals. I would not be shocked if the team regrets paying Molina $15 million per season, particularly in the latter part of the deal.

But again, what was the alternative?

If I were the Cardinals and needed to pay Molina a few extra million per season to keep him off the open market, I’m not sure I would have done much differently.

David Schoenfield, ESPN

So if he produces like he did in 2011, Molina should justify the contract when you also consider his popularity in St. Louis (he received the loudest ovations of any Cardinals player during the World Series) and what he means to the franchise in the absence of Albert Pujols. If he reverts back to being a durable .290/.350/.390 hitter with superb defense, the Cardinals will have slightly overpaid but not drastically so.

Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

I understand the desire to show the fan base that Molina wouldn’t be the next Pujols, and that the team was still intent on keeping the team’s best players from walking away via free agency, but at this price, perhaps the Cardinals could have just waited another 12 months before committing top dollar to a defensive specialist. Molina may very well be worth the money, but the Cardinals had to pay a premium price to lock up their star catcher, and if his bat regresses in 2012, they may regret not waiting for his value to drop slightly before committing to him long term.

Still, this deal looks better upon closer examination than I initially thought it would. My expectation of $40 million over four years looks like it would have been far too team friendly given what Molina should be able to produce going forward. This contract keeps a premium player in St. Louis, and sometimes, premium players just cost premium money. Like with the Ryan Zimmerman extension in Washington, this isn’t any kind of bargain, but it ensures that St. Louis will have a high quality backstop going forward. That has real value, especially for a team attempting to defend a World Championship.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and their catcher Miguel Montero broke off contract discussions on Wednesday, the day before Molina’s official announcement.

Nick Piecoro, Arizona Republic

Two days ago, word broke that the St. Louis Cardinals had agreed to terms with their All-Star catcher, Yadier Molina, on a five-year deal worth $75 million. Molina is one year older than Montero and more established, having been the Cardinals’ starter since 2005, but the length and dollars of that deal are indicative of the dearth of good catching available in the majors.

And Montero has been the superior offensive player throughout his career. Given that another offensive-minded catcher, Victor Martinez, received a four-year, $50 million deal as a free agent two off-seasons ago, it could wind up taking a record commitment by the Diamondbacks in order to retain Montero after the season.

The Rangers’ Mike Napoli seems very aware that he has become the highest-visibility impending free agent catcher this fall.

Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star Telegram

Mike Napoli saw the St. Louis Cardinals signed catcher Yadier Molina to a five-year deal worth a reported $75 million, but didn’t read too much into the numbers. He doesn’t know what his value will be when he becomes a free agent after this season.

Napoli had discussions with the Texas Rangers this winter about a long-term deal, but those talks stalled. Instead, Napoli and the Rangers reached a one-year, $9.4 million in his final year of arbitration.

Napoli said talks of a deal have been “squashed,” and he’s focused on the season rather than free agency.

“I’d love to be here, but I’ll test the market,” Napoli said. “Every player plays to get to free agency. But it’s not something I’m going to worry about. That’s why I have my agent.”

The Yankees’ Russell Martin is also slated to reach free agency following the 2012 season. The deep-pocketed Yankees are fearful of the new salary cap penalties and that impacts their plans with Martin.

Joel Sherman, New York Post

Now the chances of Martin re-signing become much, much slimmer. Martin is kind of Molina Lite. Martin is a very good defensive catcher (the Yankees love him), but Molina is viewed as clearly the best in the game. Also, Molina went from a career of ordinary or below-average offense to a breakout last year when he hit .305 with a .465 slugging percentage. However, his career slash line of .274/.331/.377 is quite similar to that of Martin: .267/.359/.398. They are both 29.

So it stands to reason that Martin will be able to use Molina’s contract, which will have an average value of $14 million to $15 million, as a gauge. Martin will not get that much, but he now is probably looking at something in the four-year, $40 million range; especially if he has a good year and gets out on the free-agent market. There is a dearth of quality catching in the sport. And there certainly is a dearth of those in or near their prime years who are two-way catchers like Martin. In other words, in free agency, supply and demand would take over, Martin will probably receive bids from multiple teams and the price will rise.

With the Atlanta Braves and Brian McCann having a 2013 option, the catcher may not reach the market this coming winter. As such, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution isn’t yet talking about any potential Molina impact. Like many others, they ran the AP story about Molina.

Steve Hummer, Atlanta Journal-Constitution

On Wednesday, they had a long feature piece on McCann (see link above), but the contract was never mentioned. The focus was on his second-half 2011 slide.

Update: Sporting News’ Stan McNeal writes that the Braves now have to hope McCann will take a $5 million per year hometown discount. He blames it on the Molina deal, despite his belief that McCann’s abilities are more comparable to Joe Mauer rather than Molina.

David Murphy, Philadelphia Daily News

In the wake of Yadier Molina’s five-year, $75 million contract extension with the Cardinals, several emailers wondered whether Carlos Ruiz will be in line for a big pay-day once his current contract expires. As valuable as Ruiz has been for the Phillies, the comparison isn’t a fair one.

For starters, Ruiz will be 33 years old this season and he still has a $5 million option for 2013. So he won’t be hitting free agency until he is entering his 35-year-old season. To put that in perspective, when Molina’s new deal expires, he will be entering his 34-year-old season. The age difference alone — Molina will be 29 this season — is enough to render any comparison moot.

Finally, we close with an interesting perspective from a site associated with one of the Cubs’ rightsholders. No analysis is offered – just a warning. After all, that team’s followers are all too familiar with the problem of a roster clogged with overpaid and underperforming players.

Tony Andracki, CSN Chicago

This actually may help the Cubs and the NL Central in the future. Molina’s contract was set to expire at the end of this 2012 season. He will turn 30 in July, which means he will be 35 by the time this new deal is complete.

Who wants to pay a 35-year-old catcher $15 mil? That could severely hamper the Cardinals’ funds. Especially when they will pay a 36-year-old Matt Holliday $17 million in 2016, the year before Molina’s deal expires.

The Cardinals could be a very cash-strapped organization come 2016-17.

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It is time to stand down, step back and let the process take its course.

There is no doubt in my mind that the wounds inflicted by the Albert Pujols loss via free agency have not healed for many across the Cardinal Nation. That has created a heightened level of sensitivity, or in some cases paranoia, that Pujols’ friend, Molina, is destined to follow the same messy path out of town.

Of course, that could prove to pass, and has been discussed here and elsewhere, it could end up being the best outcome for both sides. After one more season of service, Molina will have earned the right to enter the market if he so chooses, as the Cardinals have the right to decide how much money over how many years to offer and when.

Or, just as easily, the agonizing would be immediately forgotten if the two sides come to terms on a new contract.

This week alone, the needle has swung wildly from one extreme to the other, then right back in the opposite direction again.

First, the word was that Molina and the Cardinals were talking and would continue to do so throughout the regular season if need be. That seemed a reasonable approach to most.

Then, the sky fell as Molina mentioned that discussions had broken off, implied there would be no hometown discount and finally gave the impression that there be no talks during the regular season. The fact that the catcher had only said the discussions had ceased “for now” seemed to be lost in the resulting tempest.

Many took the news to mean the worst, that Molina had adopted a Pujolsian stance in architecting his eventual departure via free agency.

So what did we learn just a day or two later? The two sides are still talking, after all. Not only are they talking, but the discussions are moving in “a positive direction.” Molina’s agent Melvin Roman reportedly relayed to the club a “preference” to get a deal done and not negotiate in-season. Note that the word is “preference,” not an absolute.

If one wants to interpret it this way, the two sides could be viewed as “stopping” talks every time a meeting or phone conversation on the subject ends and “re-starting” negotiations as soon as a new exchange is scheduled.

My bottom line is that many, if not most, contract negotiations have their ups and downs. As outside observers, we learn what the two sides at the table want us to learn when they want. What is happening here is standard operating procedure in a very high stakes give-and-take situation.

From our distance, wouldn’t it be better to turn down the hyper-sensitivity to what is in reality a business-as-usual process?

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Since that article appeared, Molina ducked the Cardinals Winter Warm-Up fan festival for the second consecutive year amid speculation that he was upset over the departure of his friend Albert Pujols via free agency.

Said to be looking trim and fit, Molina reported to Cardinals spring training camp in Jupiter, Fla. a week early. The Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss was there to ask the contract questions I and probably every other reporter at Winter Warm-Up wanted to pose; questions whose answers so many have been yearning to hear.

Readers could find both the positive and the negative in the catcher’s response. For me, the entire situation was summed up in two consecutive paragraphs.

“I’m open to staying here. I love the city. I love the fans. I love the ballpark. But it’s out of my hands,” Molina said. “Whatever they like to do is how it is. They let Albert go. It’s business for the team, too. It’s out of my hands.”

The Cardinals have engaged Molina’s agent, Melvin Roman, in preliminary talks about an extension. Though Molina would prefer the matter be resolved before opening day, he won’t enforce Pujols’ mandate that negotiations be resolved before his official report date to camp.

Those already worried that Molina will follow his friend Albert’s free-agent path out of St. Louis this fall immediately lodged onto the dually-emphasized phrase, “It’s out of my hands,” words very similar to ones Pujols uttered more than once in recent years.

Even before this latest news, almost one in every five Cardinals fans were worried enough to consider trading Molina, according to a January 20 poll here. I expect that polarized minority will grow in size and volume as 2012 unfolds.

On the positive side, Molina’s agent and the Cardinals will apparently continue to talk about a new deal throughout the season if necessary. That is very important and should not be under-emphasized.

On one level, Molina saying his future is out of hands is laughable, on another, it is completely understandable.

It is out of his hands until the Cardinals make a fair offer for his continued services – though there are certainly actions he and his agent can take to facilitate the process both before and after an offer is on the table.

The Cardinals have to be careful, too, as they try to assess whether Molina’s asking price resides within their comfort zone. At this stage of the game, making an offer perceived as insulting can be more damaging than not making one at all. Those who think the Cardinals are in control of the situation – willing to snap their fingers and close the deal – are incredibly naive.

There is plenty of time remaining for both sides to talk. The fact that Molina is in spring camp early, seemingly in good shape and ready to play baseball is a positive sign.

The fact that he is apparently willing to let his agent and the Cardinals work on his contract while he focuses on his job is another good thing, as far as I am concerned.

It is most unlikely that either side will be providing regular updates on the progress of their negotiations, so the impatient need to deal with that. Still, at some point this year, it would not be surprising to me for a press conference to be announced out of the blue during which a new deal is announced.

Yet if that doesn’t happen and Molina ultimately decides to test free agency this fall – as did Pujols and Matt Holliday among others before him – that is his right; just as it is the right of the Cardinals to set a limit as to how much they will offer their catcher and to determine the best time to make their move(s). (Through a recent set of polls here, a five-year, $65 million offer won out as the fans’ best offer to Molina.)

In the meantime, I would find it hard to believe that anyone worth listening to does not believe the 2012 Cardinals will be a better team with Molina than without. Right now, isn’t that what it is all about – fielding the 25 players that give the team the best chance of repeating as World Champions?

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To keep that survey manageable, the dollar amounts and years were split into separate questions. That made it difficult to bring the two together into one clear conclusion, so that is the purpose of this post.

Almost 70 percent of the earlier voters selected either a four- or five-year deal. Over 60 percent of those voting would offer Molina a contract with an average annual value (AAV) somewhere between $9 million and $13 million per year.

Assuming we round to the nearest million, that creates a possible ten answers. From them, you can choose your definitive best offer to the catcher for his four or five seasons starting in 2013 at age 30-31.

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Now we hear it from the angle of the Angels, primarily general manager Jerry Dipoto. That story is entitled “How to Land the Big One, the Inside Story of Signing Albert Pujols.” It will appear in print in the Feb. 6, 2012 “Recruiting Issue” of ESPN The Magazine, but is already posted online for ESPN subscribers. (Cover photo shoot video is also included.)

Written by Sam Miller, who covers the Angels for the Orange County Register, the piece describes the interrelation of the club’s successful quest to sign left-handed pitcher C.J. Wilson with their pursuit of Pujols.

The article includes many already-known details about the telephone bonding between Halos owner Arte Moreno and Pujols along with a few mild surprises.

Pujols defended the short courtship.

“I only spend five minutes talking to or meeting a guy and I know pretty much,” Pujols said after he signed. “God has given me that wisdom. I don’t even know [Moreno], and he called me one of his partners. That means a lot.”

Very little was written about the Cardinals position but what was said, I found most interesting.

“The Cardinals had made Pujols and his wife, Deidre, feel almost unwanted with their offers, the first of which was for just five years… It was as though the Cardinals could see only the downside to signing a 31-year-old Albert Pujols while the Angels saw opportunity,” Miller states.

I guess St. Louis’ rumored first offer this past fall is what was meant, which was reportedly for just five years. Though it was not mentioned that proposal was for a salary of $26 million per year, a higher average annual value than the 10-year, $240 million deal Pujols and the Angels later agreed upon. Also not referenced were earlier or later bids made by the Cardinals, which reportedly went up to as much as ten years, though at a lower AAV and with deferred money. Since the ESPN story was admittedly written from the Angels’ perspective, it should not be too surprising those details are missing.

Last week, Cardinals president Bill DeWitt III had the following to say about the Pujols situation.

“Our fan base is so knowledgeable that there were some things that we were tempted to say about how things went down. Not so much negative against Pujols or anything like that, but just defending the way we approached it, going back over time – having given it a good shot two years ago, one year ago, then in this off-season.  I think there were some accusations about if we should have done it earlier and things of that nature.

“You can go back in time and I think the instinct we had was to lay it all out there. But then, we saw the reaction. And the reaction was overwhelmingly, I think, sympathetic to the way we handled it. And given that reaction, we just decided to let it go. Let the last word be theirs. I think that was probably a good move because any time you just get into a ‘he said, she said’ pissing match, it doesn’t leave a good taste,” DeWitt III said.

It will be interesting to see how this story evolves over time as to which offers are remembered and in what sequence. The ESPN-Angels version clearly hits hard the damage caused by the perceived lack of respect shown Pujols by the Cardinals.

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The logical follow-on question to those voters is to ask where they would draw the line in terms of dollars and years. That is the purpose of this post.

Here are a few data points to consider.

Molina currently makes $7 million in the fifth and final year of his contract signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2008 season. He will celebrate his 30^th birthday in July.

Minnesota’s Joe Mauer has the largest contract in MLB history for a catcher, eight years, $184 million. It started in 2011, his age 28 year, and pays him an even $23 million per season.

Detroit’s Victor Martinez, who recently suffered a season-ending injury, signed a four-year, $50 million free agent deal one year ago. The average annual value (AAV) of his deal, covering his age 32-35 seasons, works out to $12.5 million, just over half of Mauer’s annual take.

A number of front-line catchers could hit the market next fall, including Russell Martin, Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli. Others with 2013 club options include Brian McCann ($12 million) and Carlos Ruiz ($5 million).

Against that backdrop, what are your limits? Please vote and explain below.

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Some of the most extreme reactions at either end of the spectrum almost seem unexplainable to the others. To me, it appears that different people are at vastly different phases of dealing with the reality that Pujols has left the Cardinals.

A Swiss doctor named Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, in her 1969 book, On Death and Dying, introduced the Kübler-Ross Grief Model. It is a cycle of emotional states that describe how people react to a significant negative event in their lives.

The five stages:

Denial stage: Trying to avoid the inevitable.
Anger stage: Frustrated outpouring of bottled-up emotion.
Bargaining stage: Seeking in vain for a way out.
Depression stage: Final realization of the inevitable.
Acceptance stage: Finally finding the way forward.

In the Pujols case, it seems few remained in the denial stage very long. At its essence, this was a very black-and-white situation. There could be no mis-diagnosis. Once Pujols’ decision was communicated, it was done. There could be no turning back or major change of course to be re-plotted.

As one might expect, the anger stage has been just the opposite. Many remain there still, however with different targets for their anger. The team took the player for granted; they lowballed and insulted him. The player said it wasn’t about the money, but lied to the fans. He put a greater value on a relationship with a man he had never met than with the countless admirers from his home of the last 11 years. The agent cited competitive bids that apparently did not exist. The wife suggested God set the course and the devil was behind negative reaction, etc…

The targets of the anger are varied, but the feelings strong. Fans threw away Pujols memorabilia while stores gave away Pujols-related stock. Others took to websites, talk radio and message boards to vent.

As some moved into the bargaining stage, they began to think about a future way out. How long might the hastily-arranged Pujols-Angels marriage last? Would Pujols flop on the field long before the decade was over? Would he eventually return to St. Louis before or after his playing days are done?

The 10-year personal services agreement that will follow the 10-year playing contract has caused considerable angst for some. These folks have such a clear vision of the future that they have convinced themselves that when Pujols becomes Hall of Fame-eligible, likely in 15 years, that he will be prohibited from entering the Hall as a Cardinal and that he will never be allowed back to Busch Stadium to be celebrated for his Cardinals success.

The Stan Musial comparisons have been worn to the bone and in some cases twisted beyond recognition. One poster actually said he would rather the Cardinals be a third-place team in return for protecting Pujols’ career-long legacy in St. Louis. That way, Pujols could truly become this generation’s Musial, even if at the expense of fielding a competitive team.

Depression set in when some learned that the deck had been stacked against the Cardinals. The Angels had a new, untapped  revenue source of $150 million per year. Their new television contract created a ready source of funds to satisfy Albert’s every desire – something the Cardinals had no realistic hope of matching.

Another source of depression for some was Pujols’ full-page farewell ad in the Post-Dispatch, driving home the finality of the divorce. Some saw it as a classy move while others characterized it as simply another item to be checked off the Pujols public relations team’s action list.

Pujols’ awkward Angels press conference/pep rally, televised nationally this past weekend, helped hammer home to some the realization that Pujols isn’t coming back. In other cases, it cycled fans back through the anger stage when the player did not seem to give his past the proper due.

Same with Dee Dee Pujols’ Monday radio appearance. It seemed to do little to move anyone toward acceptance, while sending many back into fits of anger, whether directed at the team or the Pujolses themselves. The whole thing began to feel like a “he-said, she-said” episode as claims of who offered what and when were raised and disputed.

Still others, like me, quickly moved ahead to the acceptance phase. Having followed the Cardinals for over four decades, I have seen many highs and lows over the years. This is but another bump in a long road.

The sooner everyone can reach acceptance, the sooner we can all put the loss behind and move ahead.

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As a result, this site has seen an explosion in traffic over the last three days. Apparently others are searching for past information about Pujols’ tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals. Popular subjects include contract-related posts as well as looks into the claims that the 31-year-old may be older than reported.

In any case like this, revisionist history can inadvertently set in over time. So rather than recap what happened, instead I selected 19 of my previous articles which directly represent the Pujols news of the day from my vantage point at various times over the last two years.

In tying a bow around my Pujols coverage, this post serves as a directory of some of the key Pujols articles previously posted here. A number of them also include polls which sampled reader opinions about Pujols-related issues at the time as well as countless reader comments that accompany each post.

The articles below are presented in chronological order.

January 2010
“Time to act on the Holliday-Pujols contract FUD” – After the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday, I explained the merits of trying to extend Pujols at that time as well.
“What if Albert Pujols becomes Mark Teixeira?” – I looked at a comparable situation to see what the Cardinals might land in trade before and during the 2010 season if they felt Pujols could not be signed.

February 2010
“Albert Pujols: On his contract” – Pujols took his story directly to the people in a long television interview, making it clear he did not want to leave St. Louis.

November 2010
“Has Pujols’ negotiating stance changed?” – Pujols was quoted as saying he wanted to get a new contract done before the 2011 season began.

December 2010
“The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #4: The Pujols decade” – Nothing heavy. Just a look back at some of Pujols’ top on-field accomplishments, serving as a good reminder of his many contributions.

January 2011
“Pujols and the Cardinals: Is it a matter of trust?” – After watching and listening to Pujols, one of his representatives and Cardinals executives face-to-face at Winter Warm-Up, I sensed problems brewing between the two sides.
“Why are some surprised by the Pujols no-trade rumor?” – I wondered why someone perceived the need to publicly state that Pujols would not accept a trade.
“Why do Pujols’ age questions persist?” – National writer Rob Neyer is among the most prominent individuals to repeatedly suggest Pujols has falsified his age, though others have wondered over time as well. Substantiation is noticeably missing.

February 2011
“More local TV revenue won’t cover Pujols’ contract” – Those hoping for a enhanced Cardinals television deal that could provide a new source of income to pay Pujols had to be disappointed with my investigation into the possibility. (This has proven to be quite the contrast to the current situation with the Angels.)
“Pujols and the money: What to believe?” – Trying to sort out what was offered before the two sides cut off spring negotiations. Lots of rumors, but as usual, no facts.
“Pujols’ shadow means 10 more months of winter” – The realization that with negotiations having ended, Pujols’ free agency was almost assured.
“Seven years ago today: Announcing Pujols’ new contract” – I took a look back at the 2004 signing of what became Pujols’ final Cardinals contract.
“Pujols and the 2004 wayback machine” – Several 2004 Pujols articles were interesting to review, covering his age, contract and lost MVP awards.
“Pujols’ contract remarks from spring 2009 and 2010” – A must-read as it captures Pujols’ own words and how they evolved over time.

March 2011
“Cardinals concerned about Albert Pujols’ age?” – Neyer again repeats the rumor that Pujols is older than reported, but this time asserts the Cardinals themselves are among the concerned.
“Fan optimism slipping about Pujols’ Cardinals future” – I recapped several site reader polls predicting where and when Pujols would sign. They indicated a shift in public opinion as to what the end result might be.

May 2011
“Pujols as part owner of the Cardinals: Not so fast!” – Some people became very excited over the prospect of awarding Albert a share of the team. After looking at all the ramifications, I did not join them.

November 2011
“Miami sideshow leads to more Pujols age questions” – A Florida writer said the Marlins believe Pujols is older than 31. No sources were quoted and later, the club reportedly increased its offer to Pujols.

December 2011
“It’s ok. Just don’t insult us, Albert. It was about the money.” – My summary of and reaction to Pujols’ decision to sign with the Angels.

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Today, I have been asked many times already – here, phone, email, on the radio and even at the dinner table – for my feelings about the Albert Pujols defection to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

I wish I knew more. I want to know more. (“Know” versus being dependent on media reports, sourced from people who may have biases.) Yet the reality is that all the facts may never become clear and even if we had them, we wouldn’t know it, perhaps remaining forever skeptical. So we deal with what we have and try to sort through it.

This is a day during which many St. Louis Cardinals followers are blowing off a lot of steam over what happened. My perception is that more are unhappy with the player than his ex-team, though there are plenty in each camp.

The anti-Pujols sentiment is fueled by the perception that he went for the top dollar, while turning against his stated interest to remain a Cardinal for life.

The reports say $254 million over ten years. On one hand, it could be as much as $30 or $40 million higher than the Cardinals’ top bid. That is a lot of cash for Pujols or anyone to leave on the table.

On the other hand, it is likely no more than $3 or $4 million per year higher than St. Louis’ offer.

From Pujols’ own mouth in February 2009. Emphasis is mine.

“Do I want to be in St. Louis forever? Of course,” Pujols said.  “…People from other teams want to play in St. Louis and they’re jealous that we’re in St. Louis because the fans are unbelievable. So why would you want to leave a place like St. Louis to go somewhere else and make $3 or $4 more million a year? It’s not about the money. I already got my money. It’s about winning and that’s it.”

Here’s where the folks upset at the Cardinals step in. People who I think should know better second-guess the team for not having previously locked Pujols up to another long-term deal. Some wanted it done two years ago. Others would have been happy had it been accomplished this January.

The fatal fallacy in that point of view is the belief that somehow the Cardinals were in control – that they could have magically closed the deal back then at the same or less money than the $22 million per year they reportedly offered now.

I don’t believe it for one minute.

Pujols wanted A-Rod money (ten years, $275 million) previously, so there was absolutely no reason for him to give up a chance at free agency to take less in advance.

In fact, my belief is that the Cardinals only remained in the Pujols hunt until the final day due to good fortune. First, the Yankees and Red Sox were not in the bidding. Second, the market overall is down, another point as to why Pujols would not have settled for $22 million or thereabouts in a better environment earlier.

Others have criticized the Cardinals for not playing hardball with Pujols earlier. Their thinking was that the club should have issued the player an ultimatum to either sign an extension at the team’s price or be traded away. The last window for that to have been feasible was the July 2010 deadline. With the full benefit of hindsight, winning the 2011 World Championship in Pujols’ final year seemed the right (non-) move.

Back to the here and now, some are suggesting the Cardinals were not competitive, with their bid only fourth-best, putting them behind the Angels, Marlins and a supposed “mystery team.”

First of all, no one knows for sure what those other bids were (if they existed at all) and our sources may have agendas in trying to influence public opinion. For example, this would be exactly the kind of spin to come from Team Pujols if they wanted to try to diminish the St. Louis backlash.*

I suspect the Cardinals probably did extend themselves “to the limit and beyond,” as GM John Mozeliak said at his press conference on Thursday afternoon. The team officials are the only ones who fully understand their financials but from the outside looking in, they seemed to make representative offers, which they say they adjusted as recently as Wednesday. Could they pay the highest amount? As proven, the answer is “no.”

Who can blame the Cardinals for being wary of giving 10 years with no-trade protection to a man who will be 41 years old at the end of his contract? At least the Angels could eventually station an aged Pujols at designated hitter, an option unavailable to St. Louis.

All is not lost. The Cardinals have the time and now the money this winter to explore trades, free agency and perhaps going after extensions before their next round of core players hit the market – Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina. They have the flexibility to plan for the future with a more balanced team than paying a superstar salary would allow.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not anti-Pujols. He earned the right to seek free agency and to take his services to the bidder of his choice, which he did. I don’t begrudge him one bit for that. That is the system baseball has put in place and he used it to his maximum advantage.

Cardinals fans should appreciate the 11 unprecedented years he gave them and the fine team baseball played, of which he was a key contributor. The two World Championship flags Pujols helped raise will fly forever.

On the other hand, I hope Pujols does not insult our intelligence by insisting that his move was not about the money. It clearly was.

* Update: And, here it is. It was a matter of the heart. A direct quote from a phone call from Pujols to his agent Dan Lozano early Thursday morning follows. It was Pujols communicating his decision as reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who it would appear is tightly wired to the agent. After all, how else could a third-party quote a one-on-one telephone conversation directly?

“The Angels,” he (Pujols) said (to Lozano), “are the ones tugging on my heart.”

Pujols’ past level of support, admiration and in some cases, near worship as a Cardinal is unlikely to be exceeded, or even duplicated anywhere else. That Pujols’ heart told him to leave this environment in St. Louis for a completely different situation is difficult to fathom. If he instead departed for more money from the Angels, that would be neither a crime, nor a sin.

Some suggest the Players’ Union may have pressured Pujols to take the highest bid. Just one year ago, we saw a crystal clear example of just the opposite. Cliff Lee passed up higher offers from two teams, the Yankees and his then-current club, the Rangers, to sign with Philadelphia instead. Lee was not about the money.

The loss of star continuity resulting from Pujols leaving the Cardinals behind is my greatest regret from the perspective of a long-time fan of the game of baseball. One-team Hall-of-Famers are so rare in this day and age. Ripken, Jeter (later), Gwynn, Brett… there aren’t too many.

Then, there is the greatest Cardinal of them all, Stan Musial. Yes, Stan stayed home for a quarter of a century, but in his day, players had no choice. One thing for sure, by heading to Anaheim, Pujols has guaranteed that he will never earn the opportunity to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with “The Man” as a true career-long and life-long St. Louis Cardinals icon.

Audio interview

I covered much of this same ground in my Thursday afternoon live interview with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson on KXnO FOX Sports Radio in Des Moines. It follows.

Click here for audio: Brian Walton with Ken Miller and Jim Brinson (9:20)

Reader poll

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Much has changed since then, or has it?

Tuesday’s report that the Northsiders are interested in signing the top player on the market may serve as new Cubs president Theo Epstein’s virtual bro hug with now-free agent Pujols.

What a difference 24 hours made in the heat level of Major League Baseball’s hot stove.

On Monday, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan commented about the “surprisingly quiet” market for Pujols. Passan had spoken with three baseball executives who characterized the Cardinals as “heavy, heavy favorites” to retain the first baseman. “I’m 100 percent certain he’s going back there,” one executive reportedly told the writer.

FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal shattered the tranquility when he disclosed on Tuesday morning that the Cubs are interested in both Pujols and Milwaukee free agent first baseman Prince Fielder.

The FOX report had an interesting angle on why, noting the new labor agreement between players and owners was designed to scale back team spending on amateurs. That had been a major element of Epstein’s past formula for success with the Boston Red Sox.

Despite having good major league teams that meant annually drafting late in the first round, the Sox did a consistently solid job of building a strong minor league pipeline. Those players helped fuel major league success that included two World Championships. One route that could be used to accomplish that was having the means to overpay if necessary to secure top amateur talent.

If Epstein is being forced to modify that proven blueprint because of stiff financial penalties for overspending on amateurs in the future, his Achilles heel as a GM may be exposed in Chicago.

With Boston, Theo had a very mixed record over the years with major league free agent acquisitions. Problem contracts with John Lackey and Carl Crawford last winter offer the most recent examples of concerns that go back at least to the days of Edgar Renteria and Julio Lugo. In between, there were J.D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka among others.

In fact, Epstein shares that legacy with Hendry, effectively his predecessor leading the Cubs. Over his nine years in the GM chair, Hendry saddled the Baby Bears with numerous bad contracts including Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley, Carlos Zambrano and many more.

As Rosenthal notes, Fielder is also in the mix in Chicago. He may be had for fewer years than the nine the Cardinals have allegedly offered Pujols, though Fielder’s per-season price tag could be higher, since he is more than three years younger. Of course, like Pujols’ age, Fielder’s weight remains a concern of some potential buyers.

Another proven weapon in Epstein’s bag of tricks in Boston was to drive up the price of free agents to his nemesis, the New York Yankees. One recent example was his move to try to snare Yankees icon Mariano Rivera away from his long-time home. Though he was unsuccessful, Epstein’s initiative raised the ante paid by his primary competitor.

Whether the Cubs end up with Pujols, or Fielder or neither one of them, it seems risky to not take the overtures seriously.

To date, the Cardinals have enjoyed the upper hand with Pujols. Due to a lack of competition, they seem to have had no reason to increase their February offer, one that Pujols rejected. It may be in the nine years, $200 million range.

Scott Boras, Fielder’s agent, and Dan Lozano, the embattled representative of Pujols, must love the Tuesday news. Each may be hoping the other first sets the market while leaving the final premier first-baseman standing to elicit a bidding war from desperate suitors.

At this point, no one knows if any clubs will reach a desperation level, however. In fact, the first question is whether or not any teams will become legitimate bidders. The Marlins kicked the tires on Pujols, but no other club has made an offer to either free agent – at least that has been reported.

Other teams could jump into the fray, including Texas, Washington, Seattle or the Angels, but no one yet knows for sure.

For a point of comparison, click here to see the results of this same poll, conducted here at The Cardinal Nation Blog in May.

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Because these changes do not fully take effect until this coming fall, the Lords of Baseball agreed on interim terms that impact a handful members of this year’s free agent class. (FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has all the details.)

As a result, the St. Louis Cardinals look to be short-term winners, at least on a small scale.

Five of the club’s eight major league free agents were deemed compensation-eligible by the two-year Elias Rankings that will be eliminated after this year. They are first baseman Albert Pujols (Type A), shortstop Rafael Furcal and pitchers Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson and Arthur Rhodes (all Type B*).

The Cardinals must make an offer of arbitration for a one-year contract to these players* by midnight tonight, Wednesday, November 23, or they will be ineligible to receive compensation if the players sign elsewhere.

Pujols’ case is easy to predict. The Cardinals will offer arbitration because Pujols would never accept a one-year deal at this point. Of course, the organization hopes the two compensatory picks associated with the offer will not come into play and he re-signs with them.

My suspicion is that neither Furcal, Jackson nor Rhodes will be offered.

The two-year, $10.5 million contract that shortstop Clint Barmes received from the Pirates could signal that Furcal has an opportunity to do much better elsewhere. Despite the Cards wanting him back, I doubt they would risk going to an arbitration hearing.

Jackson, a Scott Boras client, may receive a Kyle Lohse-type of contract from some pitching-hungry club. While the Cardinals could likely pick up a comp pick by offering, in the past they have not made offers to players they do not want to bring back. That seems to be the case here. It has nothing to do with Jackson’s skills. With the Cardinals’ 2012 rotation already set and a lot of money committed to them, there seems no room at the inn for him.

Rhodes is 42 years of age. Hopefully, the 2012 Cardinals will look in another direction.

* That leaves the interesting case of Dotel. Originally, he was named a Type A free agent, which restricted his appeal to other clubs, since they would lose their first- or second-round pick by signing him. It was a high price for a reliever.

That changed this week. The special interim rules just enacted freed a small group of relief pitchers, including Dotel. He is among those immediately moved to Type B, but the Cardinals actually benefit by being assured of a compensation pick between the first and second rounds if/when Dotel signs with another club for 2012.

The team lost the chance for two picks (which they were very unlikely to chase, anyway) and get one without having to take action. The player benefits as a new prospective team will not lose a high selection by signing him.

With a draft pick essentially already in hand, the Cardinals have no reason to make Dotel an offer of arbitration. Further, with younger and cheaper right-handed relief alternatives in house, I predict they will not bring him back in 2012.

At the bottom line, there are three possible cases based on my predictions:

1) If Pujols and Dotel re-sign with the Cardinals, the club will receive no extra picks.

2) If Pujols re-signs, the Cardinals would gain one compensation pick from the loss of Dotel. This is my most likely scenario.

3) If neither re-sign with St. Louis, the Cards would pick up a first- or second-round pick plus two compensation selections in the 2012 draft.

Update: The Cardinals’ arbitration offer decisions are outlined at TheCardinalNation.com.

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The 31-year-old free agent first baseman recently visited the Miami Marlins, the only club other than the St. Louis Cardinals yet to show public interest in signing him. Perhaps other teams are also kicking the tires, but they have not yet rolled out the red carpet.

The Marlins not only hosted Pujols, they reportedly made him a contract offer. Despite some erroneous rumor reporting of a nine-year, $225 million proposal, most reputable sources indicate the deal presented was lower than the offer the Cardinals made last spring, probably $190 million or less.

Why would the Marlins even bother to do that, while knowing their only realistic chance of getting Pujols would be to outbid his preferred destination, a return to St. Louis?

One prime possibility is that with a new stadium opening this coming spring, the club is trying desperately to stimulate fan interest in a team that has consistently drawn mediocre attendance totals despite being located in one of the country’s most populated areas.

There seems a lot of value in at least creating the vivid impression that they are seriously pursuing top players such as Pujols and free agent shortstop Jose Reyes, late of the Mets. The fact these stars are Hispanic is an added bonus.

Miami Herald writer Dan Le Batard is fawning over the Marlins’ aggressiveness. He downplays the non-competitive offer made to Pujols, instead celebrating its symbolic value to a sleepy franchise.

“It doesn’t matter if the offer is $190 million or $225 million, it is still a breathtaking move for this group, which hates long-term contracts and prefers to work the system with young, cheap talent. The Marlins, given their history and reputation, given how they’ve always preferred to do business, are actually the least likely team in the sport to offer a player that age that many years.”

Nowhere did the writer speculate the offer was under serious consideration by Pujols. In fact, he makes it very clear that the Marlins would have to dig deeper, a move he does not support.

“You won’t believe Pujols will be here until you see it? That’s fair. This management group has certainly earned your distrust… The only way for them to erase your distrust, the only way for them to actually get Pujols, is to overpay and make an even more gigantic offer that is really dumb.”

Rather than letting it sit there, Le Batard slipped this little gem into his article.

“…like a lot of teams, the Marlins believe Pujols to be older than the 31 he claims to be.”

No further explanation of who specifically believes that or why they feel that way is provided.

Let’s step back and consider this for a minute.

Say the report of the age suspicion is valid. The Marlins certainly must have believed that long before Pujols was symbolically marched through the streets of South Florida. Or are we expected to believe that they came to that conclusion just this past week by looking closely at his receding hairline or something?

It sure feels to me that the issue of Pujols’ age could have been fed to a hungry Le Batard by Marlins officials trying to spin away the negative reaction generated from their dog-and-pony show followed by non-competitive offer. A national writer, SI.com’s Jon Heyman, characterized the bid as “a lowball special designed to work only if Pujols has some incredible and unknown desire to play in Miami.”

At least Le Batard seems to admit as much, while not holding the Marlins responsible.

“Some will shrug and say that an absurd nine-year, $200 million offer is just a sham meant to look good, meant to look like they are trying, an offer just good enough to be rejected. That says more about the asinine business of baseball than it does about the Marlins, but that’s where the Marlins find themselves today…”

A sad side effect of this Miami sideshow is renewed national speculation about Pujols age, still with absolutely nothing to back it up except whispers.

Related articles: Please refer to these earlier articles about Pujols’ age questions.
March 5, 2011: “Cardinals concerned about Albert Pujols’ age?”
January 26, 2011: “Why do Pujols’ age questions persist?”

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Following is a summary of some of the key elements as reported by AP, the New York Times, FOX Sports and other sources.

Free agent compensation

Type A free agents – 2011 – The group of eligible players will be pared back to just the top stars, while players like relievers will be excluded from requiring compensation. The lists are yet to be disclosed.

Type A free agents – 2012 and beyond – The Elias Rating system will be scrapped. Clubs must have made a “qualifying offer” of at least $12.4 million on a one-year contract to receive compensation if a player later signs elsewhere. The qualifying amount increases in later years.

Type B free agents that generate a compensatory sandwich pick will be eliminated.

Draft and international players

A spending cap on amateur player spending will be put in place. A maximum amount that teams can spend on both draft picks and international free agents will be established. Clubs will be penalized from 75 percent to 100 percent or potentially even lose future first- and second-round draft picks if they excessively exceed the limit.

Salary

The minimum Major League salary will jump from $414,000 to $480,000 initially, and to $500,000 over the life of the five-year agreement.

Arbitration

The percentage of “Super Two” players eligible for arbitration between their second and third years of service time will be increased from the top 17 percent of players to 22 percent.

PEDs

Human Growth Hormone blood testing will begin in February, with penalties the same as for steroids today.

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The 2011 Albert Pujols version of the phrase includes the certainties of hitting and money, lots of both.

In the compensation department, the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman and free agent-to be is anticipating the huge contract heading his way this fall – even if he doesn’t yet know who will be signing his checks for the next decade or so.

In the interim, the hits haven’t been coming at their typical rate as Pujols has gotten off to an uncharacteristically rough start with the bat.  Albert arrived in Chicago this week lugging a .248 batting average and just two doubles in his first 35 games.

Could it be that Pujols’ spirits were raised by his Tuesday batting-practice embrace with Cubs general manager Jim Hendry? Both sides are clearly motivated to create the appearance of a budding courtship.

Hendry, in his ninth year in the job, has every reason to want to create hope for uneasy Cubs fans to “wait until next year.” In his favor, the GM has a past record of being able to convince his owners to spend lavishly on free agents. The decisions haven’t often been proven to be wise, but somehow, Hendry has survived despite an ownership change and his clubs’ last playoff wins having been back in 2003, long-since departed manager Dusty Baker’s first season with the Cubs.

After dealing away incumbent first sacker Derrek Lee last summer, Hendry brought in a one-year replacement for 2011. Despite averages of .196 and .227 the previous two seasons with Tampa Bay, Scott Boras client Carlos Pena received a generous $10 million contract to don Cubbie blue. His .213 Chicago average isn’t building him any support to stick around beyond this season, however.

With the traditional big spenders in New York, Boston and Philadelphia apparently set at first base for years to come, Pujols needs deep-pocketed bidders to step forward and enter the fray for his next contract. The Cardinals’ National League Central rivals from the north side of Chicago are considered by some to be shaping up as their most formidable competitor for Pujols’ ongoing services.

All eyes were on Pujols Tuesday as he and the Cubs’ front-office leader fanned those embers for everyone to see.

No one knows exactly what Hendry whispered into Pujols’ ear. Even though $300 million surely wasn’t stated – after all, that would be tampering – it had to be in their collective thinking.

Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts, the man with the (TD Ameritrade-sourced) money, was also on hand but stuck to a more business-like handshake with the Cardinals superstar.

That Pujols went on to log his first four-hit game of the 2011 season on Tuesday night, raising his batting average 20 points in the process, was perhaps just coincidental – or maybe it wasn’t…

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One is a Dominican-born slugger with three Most Valuable Player Awards still in his prime playing years while the other is a US-raised owner of five World Series rings who is approaching the conclusion of a storied career.

There are several common threads, however. They are the acknowledged current on-field leaders of the two most storied franchises in the history of major league baseball as measured by World Series championships, 27 for New York and 10 for St. Louis.

Each is among the most admired men in the game off the field as well. For example, both are past winners of MLB’s Roberto Clemente Award, recognized for commitment to community and helping others.

Another similarity is that each has recently experienced difficulty getting a new contract in place with his only home as a major leaguer.

Heading into the final year of his previous deal in 2010, Jeter announced upon reporting to camp last February that he would not discuss his contract situation until after the season. He also made it clear he had no intention of wearing any uniform other than Yankee pinstripes. The club confirmed their standing policy of no in-season negotiations, as well.

After the season, the 36-year-old Jeter and the Yankees began a negotiation process that each said they wanted to keep private. Instead, it soon spilled into the papers and turned ugly. At one point, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman publicly encouraged his shortstop to search for a better deal elsewhere.

As expected, when all was said and done, there was not a higher offer. Jeter ultimately settled on a three-year, $51 million deal to remain with New York, but the Yankees took a lot of heat for the approach taken with their long-time team captain and feelings were hurt.

“I’d be lying to you if I said I wasn’t angry about how some of this went,” Jeter said at a December press conference to announce his new contract.

Pujols’ current situation as of February 2011 looks much like Jeter’s did one year prior. Player and club are saying the right things about wanting to remain together until death do they part, but are deferring talks until the fall. That enables everyone to focus on the season at hand.

In hindsight, that approach didn’t work out as well as expected for the 2010 Yankees. While they made the playoffs, it was as a Wild Card. Some observers felt the club was unable to kick it into high gear when the post-season began. The defending World Champions lost to Texas in six games in the American League Championship Series.

Among those dissatisfied is Yankees co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner, son of the late “Boss” George Steinbrenner. On Monday, Hank said the following, as reported by ESPN.

“I think, maybe, they celebrated too much last year,” Steinbrenner said. “Some of the players, too busy building mansions and doing other things and not concentrating on winning. I have no problem saying that.”

The remark was a direct shot a Jeter, who was building a large multimillion-dollar home last year. Said to be almost 31,000 square feet, it is the largest residence in Tampa.

While the Yankees may have won the contract battle with Jeter, at what cost was it secured? Their cold war clearly continues on, long after the ink on the new contract has dried.

The Cardinals aren’t yet saying it the same way as the Yankees did with Jeter, but the one key outcome will be the same – Pujols testing his value via free agency.

No one knows exactly where the negotiations will head this fall. Unlike Jeter, Pujols is in the prime of his career and may be looking for a record haul. As such, there should be greater market interest, though the price may scare off some potential bidders.

This fall, St. Louis will likely be faced with a different problem than New York, having to decide whether or not to match a higher offer from another club. The Cardinals could force Pujols to choose between team loyalty and more cash elsewhere. That is the time when the words may start flying, even if a messy Pujols-Cardinals divorce is eventually averted.

Both sides should remain very careful. As the continuing Yankees-Jeter discord indicates, bad feelings can remain even after what appears to be a good outcome has been achieved.

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With no clear indications that St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols will speak directly with the press about his contract upon his expected Thursday arrival at spring training camp, I thought it appropriate to share a subset of the first baseman’s remarks from the last two springs.

In 2009, it was not about the money. It was about having a winning team around him. By the next spring, Pujols still wanted to stay with St. Louis, but acknowledged he was not in control of the entire situation.

The following was reported by MLB.com’s Matthew Leach on February 15, 2009. Emphasis is mine.

“Do I want to be in St. Louis forever? Of course,” Pujols said.  “…People from other teams want to play in St. Louis and they’re jealous that we’re in St. Louis because the fans are unbelievable. So why would you want to leave a place like St. Louis to go somewhere else and make $3 or $4 more million a year? It’s not about the money. I already got my money. It’s about winning and that’s it.”

“When that time comes, then we’re going to figure it out,” he said. “And I told you, I’m not going to lie to you, it’s not about the money all the time. It’s about being in a place to win and being in a position to win. If the Cardinals are willing to do that and put a team every year like they have, I’m going to try to work everything out to stay in this town. But if they’re not on the same page of bringing championship caliber to play every year, then it’s time for me to go somewhere else. Where? Somewhere else that I can win.”

The AP’s summary of the same spring 2009 discussion included Pujols’ appreciation of his current eight-year, $111 million contract, signed in early 2004.

“When I signed my contract I was really happy with what I got. When that time comes (for another contract) then we’re going to figure it out,” Pujols said.

Of course, during the ensuing 12 months, the Cardinals not only traded three top prospects for Matt Holliday, they re-signed the outfielder to a club-record seven-year, $120 million contract after he went into free agency. In the process, team competitiveness was apparently taken off the table.

Talking with Bernie Miklasz of the Post-Dispatch on February 27, 2010, Pujols appeared to have reduced his optimism level. While the player made it clear he wanted to remain with St. Louis, he also pointed out that he was not in total control of the situation.

“People in St. Louis and our fans around the country know where I want to be. And that’s St. Louis. There’s no city like St. Louis to play baseball. And the way the city has embraced me, and my family and our charitable foundation has been unbelievable. I am blessed. So why would I want to go anywhere else?

“I appreciate being a Cardinal. I appreciate wearing this uniform. I appreciate being part of the legacy over the last nine years and I want to continue to do that. I appreciate being around the Hall of Famers. I don’t think there’s many organizations who have that. I think we have the most (living) Hall of Famers, and they come around. You see Stan Musial, Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Ozzie Smith, Red Schoendienst all the time. They spend time with us. You appreciate talking baseball with all of those guys. So why would I want to go anywhere?

“Do I want to do this right now and take care of this so we don’t need to worry about it? Of course. If it happens, it happens. But there are some things I am able to control and there are other things that are out of my hands that I can’t control. And that’s the truth.”

Whether that final reference was to Cardinals ownership or God or both is unclear. Earlier in the process, Pujols commented his future was in God’s hands, but recent remarks have not focused on that factor.

What will Pujols say this week, if anything?

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Like the vast majority of the seven free agents cast loose from the St. Louis Cardinals after the disappointing 2010 season, Lopez was apparently forced to accept a minor league deal if he wanted a job this coming season.

Of course, Lopez was different from the Jeff Suppans, Pedro Felizes and Randy Winns in that he didn’t actually survive until game 162 in 2010. Considered an attitude problem in the clubhouse and with diminished results on the field, Lopez was unceremoniously released on September 21.

The move appeared most unusual given that as an impending free agent, Lopez seemed to have value. His performance in 2009-10 according to the Elias formulas would deem him a Type B free agent.

The Cardinals apparently did not want to risk the possibility that Lopez might accept an offer of arbitration, which would lock him into a return to St. Louis in 2011. Without making that offer and a decline by Lopez, the Cardinals could not receive a compensatory pick for him. Rather take the chance by going down that path, instead the Cardinals cut their losses while cutting Lopez loose.

The Boston Red Sox understood the Type B opportunity and quickly added Lopez despite their playoff chances having already been dashed. Like the Cardinals, they were basically just playing out the remainder of a season that fell short of expectations.

The Sox played Lopez in four games and once the season was over, offered him arbitration. It isn’t known if Boston had a pre-agreement with Lopez not to accept, but either way, he didn’t. That meant Lopez was again a free agent.

Once a team signed Lopez to a major league contract for the upcoming season, the Red Sox would receive an extra 2011 draft pick between the first and second rounds.

That obviously didn’t happen.

Reactions from some in the Tampa Bay camp were as amusing as they are uninformed. One headline screamed, “Rays’ stick-it to Red Sox sign Felipe Lopez denying compensation”.

While emotions are high in Tampa due to the Rays losing star outfielder Carl Crawford to Boston as a free agent, the writer apparently let that anger get in the way of the facts. The author incorrectly believes the signing would have cost the Rays compensation except for “a loophole”.

The Rays didn’t stick it to anyone, other than perhaps themselves by adding Lopez to a new mix that already includes well-known slacker Manny Ramirez. There is no loophole. No matter what, the Rays would not have lost anything.

The reason they signed Lopez to a minor league contract is because he simply isn’t good enough to justify a major league deal. Had he been able to secure an MLB contract elsewhere, he would have been all over it. From his perspective, with camps starting in days, any job is better than none.

Again, the compensation Boston would have received had he signed a major league deal would have cost Tampa Bay, or any other signing club for that matter, absolutely nothing. All the low-risk bet cost the Red Sox was a couple of weeks of MLB-minimum salary for Lopez.

The Cardinals’ approach appears to have worked out just fine, having no missed opportunity by releasing Lopez when they did.

The real question to be asked is why in the world would the Rays want to commit to a major league salary and tie up a roster spot on a declining Lopez who will probably need some good fortune to make their MLB roster, whether a comp pick is involved or not?

It would make no sense whatsoever. It would also ruin the headlines.

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Having spent this past weekend at the St. Louis Cardinals Winter Warm-Up and specifically listening to both Bill DeWitts, John Mozeliak, Albert Pujols and even his agent’s representative, I tried to take it all in.

Most readers are familiar with the basics of Pujols’ contract negotiations with the club, so I am not going to recap in great detail what has transpired to date. The two sides agreed not to negotiate through the media, reaffirmed it, then seemed to do precisely that.

Mozeliak was first when he explained to us on Saturday that the Pujols’ camp had set a start of spring training deadline for contract discussions. The statement surprised me as Mo did not offer it in reply to a direct question from one of us. He volunteered it as if he wanted to ensure the message was transmitted.

The next day, Pujols spoke. He was accompanied by a representative of his agent who tried to set the ground rules as to what could be asked and what could not. That went over like a lead balloon, but was at least moderately effective for Pujols personally in a “good cop, bad cop” sort of manner.

The player clearly and firmly delivered his between the lines message. He did not care for Mozeliak’s disclosure of the negotiating deadline.

Let’s stop for a minute and make sure that we understand that this little battle is not about money or years. It is about trying to seize the upper hand in the court of public opinion. It is unfortunate, but an expected part of negotiating.

Here is my personal take as to what may be happening.

I think the two sides lack trust in each other. Despite all the words about lifelong Cardinal-dom and the like, this is a business decision in which the stakes are huge.

To help put it into perspective, the upcoming financial commitment to Pujols is likely to exceed the original purchase cost of the franchise and could be as much as half the club’s current value. So, caution is understandable.

The most logical interpretation of the following sentence, spoken by team president Bill DeWitt III on Monday and  reported exclusively at The Cardinal Nation, is that the Cardinals have yet to make a substantive bid for their superstar.

“We’re going to put an offer out there that will be the biggest contract in Cardinal history,” DeWitt said.

“Going to” and “will be” – the consistent choice of future tense says a lot.

The Pujols camp is currently taking a beating in some quarters for having created what appears to some to be an artificial deadline. It is understandable to me, especially given the individual, why Pujols does not want to talk contract during the season. My observation is that he is single-mindedly focused on his own game preparation each day.

Even if adhered to, this wouldn’t be the final deadline. The Cardinals hold exclusive negotiating rights until five days following the completion of the 2011 World Series. At that point, if a deal is not done, Pujols would hit the open market.

The key unanswered questions are whether Pujols really wants to test free agency despite his insistence of a preference to remain a Cardinal and whether the club will make an offer big enough to stop him. A team-record deal alone would likely not be enough.

Ideally, by now, the Pujols camp would have disclosed to the Cardinals what it would take in dollars and years to get a contract done. We don’t know if matters are that clear, however.

The DeWitt comment would seem to indicate that the club is taking their time to tender their big offer. The question is ‘Why?’

I think it could be that lack of trust and perhaps lack of confidence, as well.

Perhaps the Cardinals are unsure if Pujols will accept what they are prepared to offer. Maybe they either don’t know what the first baseman wants or aren’t (yet) willing to meet it if they do know.

Any bid made by the Cardinals that falls short of what Pujols would accept, the ceiling, becomes the new floor. To close the gap, either the ceiling must be lowered or the floor must rise. In other words, any non-closing offer made now will be expected to be increased in the future.

The Cardinals may also fear is that any bid they make would become the meets-minimum in discussions with other clubs that could occur at the point Pujols would become a free agent after the season.

Yet if the Cardinals don’t step up soon with a deal that is palatable to Pujols, their chances of losing him or at least seeing his price driven even higher this fall increases substantially.

Deadline or not, it is becoming time for the Cardinals to open the bidding in this very high-stakes game over the services of a major player in another game. Further, that bid has to be enough to capture Pujols’ fancy and ideally, quickly and painlessly secure his signature on the bottom line.

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In a Saturday column at the Chicago Tribune, Phil Rogers seemed to be in the mood to try to drum up some interest for free agent shortstop Derek Jeter. The New York Yankees captain is in the midst of acrimonious contract negotiations with those who hold the keys to his only home as a professional.

In his career decline phase at age 36, Jeter appears to want more years and money than others deem reasonable. Rumors place the Yankees’ offer at three years, $45 million while Jeter’s counter may be four or five years at $23 million per season. In other words, there is a huge gap to overcome.

The Yankees did not offer Jeter arbitration, freeing him to sign with another club without compensation. As a Type A player, had Jeter been offered and declined, he would have cost a prospective signing team their first or second-round draft pick in 2011.

Given that, Rogers pulls out his dart board and outlines a list of other clubs that “at least must be discussing Jeter”. They include the Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants, Orioles, Twins, Angels, Cubs and White Sox.

In the case of the St. Louis, Rogers suggests, apparently with a straight face, that if the Cardinals cannot get Albert Pujols to commit to a contract extension, they should quickly turn to Jeter.

Specifically, Rogers wants the Cardinals to give their superstar an ultimatum. Either Pujols immediately takes St. Louis’ best deal, or they redeploy the money allocated for him as the basis for a four-year contract offer to the aging Yankees shortstop.

Have Rogers’ thought processes been mutated by the numerous failures of his hometown Cubs in signing expensive free agent busts or is his proposal a stroke of brilliance?

Would Jeter join forces with Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and the others for one last run at a championship as the columnist suggests, or would it send the Cardinals back down the Tino Martinez path to ruin?

Free agency is an avenue not recently traveled by the Cardinals. The last winter in which they made a big splash in that market, signing players from other organizations, was in 2001-2002, when closer Jason Isringhausen was one of two major additions.

The other was another fading Yankees icon, Martinez, who was not retained by New York following the 2001 season. At age 34, the first baseman signed a three-year, $21 million contact with the Cardinals.

After two tumultuous and disappointing seasons, Martinez was dumped for a non-prospect by then-general manager Walt Jocketty. The Cardinals were so anxious to be rid of Tino that they ate his 2004 salary simply so he would play the final year of his contract for Tampa Bay instead.

A consideration for Jeter is the recent example of his former teammate Johnny Damon. The ex-Yankees outfielder, also nearing the end of a solid career, was a free agent one year ago. He and agent Scott Boras badly miscalculated his market value, demanding a contract offer no less per year than his previous deal. The Yankees countered with a lower, but very fair proposal. After Damon did not respond, New York pulled the offer and he ended up signing with Detroit for considerably less money.

What do you think? Would signing Jeter be a bold stroke or a terrible move for the Cardinals?

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As readers may know, Tuesday was the deadline for Major League clubs to offer arbitration to veteran players who were Type A or Type B free agents. Despite the St. Louis Cardinals having nine free agents, not a single one of them qualified for compensation if they sign elsewhere.

The one ex-Cardinals player that would have generated a compensation pick was infielder Felipe Lopez, a Type B free agent. However, he was released in September, which means the Cardinals lost any rights to compensation for him.

Some wondered why Boston re-signed Lopez with a few weeks remaining in the season and the Sox out of the playoff hunt. My suspicions seemed to be confirmed when the Sox offered Lopez arbitration on Tuesday. Players have until November 30 to accept or decline these offers.

Interestingly, Lopez turned down the club that reportedly first showed interest in him, San Diego, despite them being in the thick of both the National League West Division hunt and the NL Wild Card race. It is unclear why he chose Boston instead, but the Red Sox had good reason to pursue him.

I can’t help but wonder if a Lopez’ decision to decline arbitration was pre-determined as a condition for Boston having brought him in.

As a free agent, the well-traveled Lopez is still just as signable whether he was offered arbitration or not. The compensation pick for Type B’s is an extra one, not taken away from the signing team as with Type A’s.

In return for giving Lopez a few weeks more in the majors at minimum cost to them and perhaps a brief opportunity for the player to repair his tarnished image a bit, Boston looks to have made a very smart move. If Lopez declines, they will receive an extra pick in the 2011 draft between the first and second rounds.

To help put this into perspective, the Cardinals had two of these Type B compensation picks in the 2010 draft, collected from the losses of Mark DeRosa and Joel Pineiro last winter. They were used to select pitchers Seth Blair and Tyrell Jenkins in June.

In releasing Lopez, St. Louis forfeited its chance to secure that same compensation selection Boston may soon possess, their only opportunity for an extra pick in the 2011 draft. Given the acrimonious deterioration in their relationship with Lopez, the Cardinals may have wanted to avoid offering him at all costs in fear he might actually demonstrate interest in returning.

Score one for the Red Sox and their GM Theo Epstein – unless they get saddled with Lopez for 2011, that is.

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This is the time of year when those players not currently on Major League 40-man rosters with at least six years of experience or have been a free agent previously have the right to declare free agency. Baseball America has documented the names of all 533 eligible players across the 30 organizations.

The St. Louis Cardinals have just six of these free agents, by far the fewest across an MLB population that averages 18. I previously outlined St. Louis’ group back on October 5 for The Cardinal Nation subscribers. They are pitchers Oneli Perez, Matt Scherer, Josh Kinney and Rich Rundles and infielder Ruben Gotay. The sixth Cardinals player was added to the group late last week when catcher Matt Pagnozzi was outrighted.

The full list of 533 is a bit of a curiosity, fun to scan in hopes the next Ryan Ludwick can be discovered. The reality is that most of these players will land somewhere next season, but few if any will become future stars.

The reason I am writing about this list today is because of the numbers and what they might tell us. Here is the breakdown by organization.

It should be noted that this list is not all-encompassing. Like some other organizations, late in the season, the Cardinals released players not on this list (Nate Robertson, Renyel Pinto, Kevin Howard) or granted free agency via other avenues (Evan MacLane).

Still, what might the count tell us? Why do the Cardinals have so few and is that good or bad?

Remember that this list is a mix of home-grown players and journeymen who began their careers elsewhere. Of the Cardinals’ six, only Scherer and Pags were originally drafted by St. Louis. Further, the Cardinals’ count has dropped steadily over the past four years, from 26 free agents to 15 to nine and now, six.

Critics of the organization are all over the map on the subject of minor league free agents. Here are three of the related concerns I have heard with my commentary following.

“The organization needs to sign more minor league free agents because their prospect pipeline is thin and the major league team may need ready help.”

One fallacy of this line of thinking is an inherent assumption that there are major league impact players lurking somewhere on this free agent list, waiting to be discovered. Gotay having sat all season in Memphis despite an obvious need at third base in St. Louis is a good reminder of the weakness of this argument.

While the organization could go all-out signing veterans, that would limit the at-bats and innings available for prospects who might have at least some additional chance for career upside.

“The system is weak across the board due to recent bad drafts and needs veterans from the outside to shore it up.”

This does point back to the 2004 (Scherer) draft and to a lesser extent, the 2003 (Pagnozzi) class, with the former especially having been among the Cardinals’ poorest in recent years. Many of the players from those years have already been whittled away (the entire remainder of the 2004 class) or have already made it (Daric Barton, Brendan Ryan and Jason Motte from 2003).

The poor 2004 draft is likely at least partially why the Cardinals’ current free agent count is so low. However, as noted elsewhere, subsequent drafts, especially 2005, helped to compensate from the systemwide depth perspective. From that class alone came Colby Rasmus, Tyler Greene, Mitchell Boggs, Nick Stavinoha and Jaime Garcia.

“The organization is overly-focused on winning at the expense of player development.”

In apparent direct conflict with the earlier contentions, one implication of this statement is that the Cardinals already sign more minor league free agents to ensure the upper levels of their system are competitive on the field.

The facts seem to blow away this straw man.

57.3 percent of the 533 are Triple-A players with 26.6 percent from Double-A, or about 84 percent of the total. Without this kind of large influx of minor league free agents, Memphis reached the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Double-A Springfield made it, too.

On the positive side, it seems to indicate that as a whole, the players drafted and originally signed into the system can play competitive team baseball.

Without the volume of players considered future impact MLBers compared to other organizations, this could also reinforce the “quantity versus high upside” concerns over recent Cardinals drafts, however. In other words, the theory goes that the Cardinals did an above-average job in filling the ranks with good players, but a relative too few are projected to be destined for greatness.

Though this free agent data is perhaps a better indicator of quantity rather than quality, it is a concern that may have merit.

What do you think?

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Having been in Arizona watching prospects for the last week meant I did not remain current on all the Twittery regarding the St. Louis Cardinals. In catching up on Monday morning, a late-week exchange between MLB Cardinals beat writer Matthew Leach and several other media members regarding Albert Pujols’ public remarks caught my eye.

The flashpoint was Pujols’ Dominican Republic interview last Thursday.

There was at least one time in the past when Pujols’ translated remarks from a similar interview were disputed by the player and/or his representatives. That was in 2006 when Pujols was widely quoted as saying the league’s Most Valuable Player should come from a playoff team, remarks considered to have been critical of the Phillies’ Ryan Howard.

As such, Leach checked with the Pujols camp about the new comments from Thursday and gained assurance that the first baseman’s words were accurate.

Among Pujols’ comments:

“I hope that before the season begins I get an extension.”

Pujols said he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Cardinals, “but that is something that I cannot control.”

Regarding the timeline, Leach stated at least twice that he considers this “a change from his (Pujols’) tone last winter, which essentially was, ‘When and if it happens, that’s cool.’”

Though I would call it more a refinement in tactic rather than a change in tone, Leach makes a good point.

Prior to this past week, Pujols had granted a number of interviews over time during which he consistently expressed a desire to be a career-long Cardinal. At least once, during January’s Winter Warm-Up, Pujols even mentioned the possibility of a “discount,” but specific time frames had been avoided – with one exception.

Once the 2009-10 off-season ended and spring training began, Pujols shut off all contract discussion, internally and especially externally. This approach makes a lot of sense, especially for a player whose intensity and focus on the game is well-documented.

Fast forwarding to today, the “discount” concept could be history and Pujols’ recent words were intended to put pressure on the Cardinals to come forward with a specific offer. Even if so, the end result would be good for everyone.

The sooner the specifics can be put on the table and a deal hammered out between the player and the organization, the better. And if the two sides can’t see eye-to-eye, they have more time to prepare for the life after, whatever that might entail.

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During a Friday segment on KTRS 550 radio, the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss told John Marecek that he thinks the chance that Albert Pujols will sign an extension with the St. Louis Cardinals could soon be less than 50 percent.

Strauss said he would have originally put Pujols’ odds of remaining with St. Louis beyond the 2011 season at 75 percent, but perceives the chances are decreasing daily. Strauss did not state the reason for the new trajectory.

As recently as Thursday, in a Dominican Republic interview, Pujols reaffirmed his desire to remain a Cardinal for the remainder of his career, keeping pressure on the organization to declare their hand regarding years and money to be offered.

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Each year around Halloween, the Elias Rankings are released for all MLB players. So far, the most important subset of these numbers, the ones for eligible free agents, has surfaced. Translated to an alphabetic value, they are an important component of free agent compensation. The rankings are derived from two years worth of statistical data and are specific to groups of positions.

Only Type A and B free agents (if signed before the arbitration offer date or if offered arbitration) would require a compensatory pick and only Type A’s cause a draft selection to move from one team to another.

There is no suspense whatsoever for the St. Louis Cardinals in this year’s process.

The club has nine free agents: RHP Jake Westbrook, RHP Brad Penny, 3B Pedro Feliz, LHP Dennys Reyes, RHP Mike MacDougal, OF Randy Winn, INF Aaron Miles, RHP Jeff Suppan and C Jason LaRue. The latter has already stated his intent to retire.

In a major statement about the productivity of this group of nine over the last two seasons, not a single one of them are Types A or B, meaning they can sign anywhere without compensation.

Westbrook remains the most likely of the group to be asked back for 2011, though it is unclear if his terms will align with the Cardinals wants. He was neither Type A nor B as the result of having missed the entire 2009 season.

There is one other player of note, the only ranked free agent that played for the 2010 Cardinals, infielder Felipe Lopez (pictured). Ironically, the Type B free agent was released late in the year due to some combination of misbehavior and substandard play and re-signed with Boston.

To see Elias Rankings of other clubs’ Type A and B free agents as potential signing targets for the Cardinals, click here. I will share the complete list of all free agents and all ranked players as soon as I can locate it.

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As the hot stove league heats up, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune noted the following about the St. Louis Cardinals in a “Baseball Whispers” article on Sunday.

“Miguel Tejada is on their radar as they look to improve at two of three spots among second, short and third.”

This name has been floated in conjunction with the Cardinals a number of times over the years, including at the July trade deadline. Buoyed by the expected return of David Freese, the Cardinals apparently did not make Baltimore an offer for Tejada. The 36-year-old was dealt to the San Diego Padres instead in return for a prospect.

Now, with a chance to upgrade over inadequate fill-in Pedro Feliz, the Cardinals may be looking at Tejada again. Even before Rogers’ comment, the name has come up on the personal wish list of Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss in recent weeks.

Tejada does not come without warts, including past issues with age falsification and PED allegations. The biggest challenge may be the decline in stats as his age advances. His .692 OPS in 2010 was his worst as an MLB full-time starter, a stretch that began in 1999.

As his defensive range has declined, Tejada spent more time at third base than his natural shortstop position this past season. The Cardinals are clearly looking for short-term third base insurance for oft-injured Freese while prospects such as Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter work their way toward St. Louis. At short, Tejada could be an offensive pairing with defensive stalwart Brendan Ryan.

Though the right-handed hitting Tejada has never appeared at second base as a major leaguer, I can’t help but wonder if he could become proficient at that position as well. It is a late-career move already made by former Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein, Tejada’s teammate in San Diego. This would give the 2011 Cardinals even more flexibility.

Even if all three incumbent infielders were to recover to have standout seasons in 2011, there should be enough at-bats to satisfy Tejada backing up all of them.

The more I think about it, from a fit perspective, I can see why the addition of Tejada would suit the Cardinals well.

Before we march off fat, dumb and happy into the sunset, here is the rub, though, and it is a major one.

Earlier, those in the game of trying to reverse-engineer the Elias Rankings projected Tejada as a Type B free agent. If so, a signing club would not forfeit a draft pick.

That did not turn out to be the case, however. In the real Elias Rankings released last week, Tejada has been classified as a Type A free agent, his ranking perhaps buoyed by having played better with San Diego than with the Orioles. In fact, because of his fit with his new club, some reports have the Padres interested in retaining Tejada for 2011.

If the Cardinals were to move quickly to try to sign Tejada before San Diego has to make the decision whether or not to offer him arbitration, the Cards would automatically forfeit their first-round draft pick next June, tentatively #22 overall.

This prohibitive price from the Cardinals’ perspective would be the same if the Padres eventually do offer arbitration to Tejada and he declines. If the Padres offer arbitration and Tejada accepts, he is off the market. The offer decision date for clubs is November 23.

The Cardinals may have to wait until at least November 30, the date by which players must accept or decline offers of arbitration, to make a formal move on Tejada, while hoping the Padres pass on the opportunity to grab a pair of extra early picks by not offering him.

Further, the Cardinals have no Type A free agents of their own that might be used to replace their first-round pick that would be lost in signing Tejada. With an already-thin group of projected high ceiling prospects, the Cardinals would be especially ill-advised to give up their top draft pick to sign an aging infielder.

In other words, while there may be interest in Tejada from St. Louis, it would be a major surprise to see any action in that area until at least late next month and the chance of it not proceeding at all has increased substantially in recent days.

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Catching up on my Sunday reading, I came across an interesting item concerning the future of Albert Pujols. Rather than being from an anonymous blog somewhere, it was posted on the NESN website.

It is significant to note that the New England Sports Network is primarily owned by the Boston Red Sox and naturally holds their television rights. Their Red Sox reporter, Tony Lee, penned a piece entitled “Red Sox Could be Contenders in Albert Pujols 2011 Free Agency Race.”

Though I follow baseball closely, I didn’t know the specifics of the Red Sox’ minor league pipeline, but I was aware of the long-time interest the club has allegedly held in San Diego Padres’ first sacker Adrian Gonzalez.

Lee puts forth an interesting take as to why and how the Red Sox might make a run at Pujols instead if he reaches free agency in 12 months. He also notes why the Yankees may not compete.

As one might expect, Red Sox fans are especially unsettled after missing the playoffs for just the second time in the last eight years and finishing in third place behind Tampa Bay and New York. Still, the Sox won 89 games, three more than the Cardinals.

Of course, at this juncture at least, most everyone expects Pujols to remain a Cardinal for the foreseeable future, but until it is done, it isn’t done.

In the meantime, I expect we will start seeing more Lee-like pieces popping up all over the baseball landscape. What makes this one a bit more notable is its source. Of all the 29 remaining clubs, the Red Sox are among the relative handful with the money, market and prestige to land a big fish like Pujols.

The bridge to my next item is the DOVE ad campaign entitled “Journeys to Comfort.” Along with Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte, the other two headliners are Pujols and Pettitte’s manager Joe Girardi.

La Russa 2.0

I couldn’t help but chuckle over a Sunday piece from the New York Post that describes in a begrudging manner why Girardi will likely be back to manage the Yankees. The deal may be three years, $9 million, says a later report from Jon Heyman of SI.com.

Back when there was some uncertainty about Tony La Russa’s return, the former Cardinals catcher (2003), FOX Sports broadcaster and Florida Marlins manager was mentioned by some as a possible replacement candidate in St. Louis.

Among the comments about Girardi from writer Joel Sherman:

“…a very good manager. Prepared. Smart. A student of the game.”

Then Sherman proceeded to march and burn his way through the manager’s office, inflicting some collateral damage as well…

“…you have to wonder if the Cardinals would have wanted the 2.0 version of La Russa — tense and paranoid — to succeed him.”

“…clenched teeth, edgy pacing and obsession with his black binder.”

“Thus players end up, at best, respecting him rather than having a human connection that would foster something greater.”

“…a personality that too often strays to the robotic or — worse — dishonest.”

“So if he is deceitful or anxiety-laced, that becomes the face and the pulse of the team.”

“When you treat every bit of information about your team — including the innocuous — as if it should be CIA classified, then your joyless persona begins to corrupt clubhouse atmosphere, as well.”

Has anyone around here ever heard anything like that before? Apparently Joe learned well.

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In an interview that is unusual in its length, 21 minutes, St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols sat down with Katie Felts from KSDK NewsChannel 5 the other day and covered a wide variety of topics.

As this did not receive nearly as much coverage as some of the reports it intended to address, I am including the video here, as well as a brief summary.

Set at his workout facility, Pujols begins with a review of his off-season training schedule and his winter routine. The discussion moves to the Cardinals prospects for 2010, his view of Mark McGwire’s return and some of his great teammates in the past.

In an interesting reply, Albert avoided accepting the idea that the addition of Matt Holliday helped him personally, but did acknowledge the outfielder helped the team. Pujols relates how he told Jim Edmonds that the latter’s decision not to play last season was “a mistake” and offers a scouting report after having worked out with the new Brewers outfielder for two weeks.

Pujols then joked about his retirement day in 10-15 years. At that point, about 17 minutes in, he reiterated his desire to retire as a Cardinal. He mentioned several times this is a business.

Rather than risk misrepresenting Pujols, what follows are his direct comments concerning his future intentions and how the subject is being covered by the media.

“…The fans have embraced me. Playing in front of the best fans in baseball, I don’t think I can play anyplace else.

“Somebody wrote something a couple of weeks ago in an article about me that I don’t mind playing somewhere else. That is not what I said. What I said is that if I become a free agent, I am not going to sit down in my house. I love this game. I need to play somewhere. If the Cardinals don’t give me the opportunity to keep playing, it will have to be somewhere else to play.

“The headline was ‘Albert Pujols doesn’t mind playing somewhere else,’ like that I want to leave. C’mon guys. That is getting old. I hope you can play this piece tonight. It is getting old about my contract because it is not about me. I still got a couple of years left here. Do I want to be here? Yes. I want to be here forever. I want to finish my career here… Why would I want to go somewhere else?

“I think the fans need to understand that and sometimes don’t read too much what the papers say, you know, because they just want to create headlines to try to sell papers, you know. I feel sad that sometimes the fans get caught up into all of that…”

Pujols reiterated what he said his agent had made clear earlier – that Holliday’s decision was not a part of his own decision. This was in the context of whether he played a personal role in Holliday’s signing, a suggestion he waved off. Pujols closed the contract discussion with this remark.

“…Why keep talking about something that isn’t going to happen for two years? I mean maybe talking for about the last year and a half. Another headline about ‘Albert Pujols Leaving St. Louis’. I ain’t going nowhere for two years, and hopefully, I ain’t going nowhere for the rest of my career.”

I could not find a headline similar to what Pujols quoted, but here is the link to the article to which I suspect he was referring. It was from the Post-Dispatch, dated January 18 and entitled “El Hombre in No Rush for Extension”. As a point of comparison, another very different account of Pujols’ remarks was posted the same day at the Globe-Democrat.

The story continues as Joe Strauss noted in his weekly chat Wednesday that the Cardinals have “engaged Pujols and his agent, Dan Lozano, in contract talks.” As one would expect, neither side immediately commented.

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Making a quick playoff exit was not what the St. Louis Cardinals had in mind when giving up three top prospects for the final two and a half months of Matt Holliday’s expiring contract. Making matters even worse was the reality that the outfielder’s agent, Scott Boras, was plotting the course, a man with a well-deserved reputation for finding top dollar for his clients via free agency.

The situation would remain front and center on the minds of the Cardinal Nation from July through the end of 2009. In fact, it remained topical right up until January 5, when Holliday came to terms on a new, seven-year, $120 million deal with an eighth-year option to remain with St. Louis.

It was a long and painful journey to get there.

From his very first meeting with the press as a Cardinal, a session I attended on July 24, Holliday was asked, then later asked and re-asked about his future plans. The now-30-year-old made it clear from the start that he was in no hurry to discuss a long-term contract.

As the Cardinals season moved toward its close, it was unclear whether or not Boras and the club had yet spoken regarding the matter. On September 24, Boras laid down the law by telling the media he was looking for a Mark Teixeira-like, eight-year, $180 million deal for the man he labeled a “blue-collar superstar”.

Holliday Cardinals futures took a severe beating in fan markets as a result. Into the off-season, Boras hoped to interest the deepest-pocketed teams in New York, Boston and Los Angeles in the bidding.

By early November, when Holliday officially filed for free agency, the Cardinals had seemingly lost whatever small advantage they previously may have enjoyed. Holliday was rumored to have said he would not be giving the club preferential treatment. Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. acknowledged his Cardinals would not be the high bidder even as the Angels, Giants and Braves stated they were not interested.

The Cardinals offered Holliday arbitration at the start of December, which was rejected as expected. Boras toughened his stance, pulling the St. Louis future of Albert Pujols into the fray. By mid-month, the Cards made their first reported formal offer, rumored to be five years at about $16 million per year, but apparently received no reply.

As the Jason Bay talks with the Red Sox stumbled, that club expressed interest in Holliday. In fact, it later came out that Boston made him a five-year, $82.5 million offer before giving the same deal to pitcher John Lackey, who accepted. Their AL East competitors from New York never got into the mix, though the Mets at least tried to leverage Holliday in their own Bay negotiations before finally landing their initial target.

As December came to a close, a rumor surfaced that Baltimore offered Holliday eight-years, $130 million guaranteed. A number of other sources, including the Orioles team president, shot down the report. In hindsight, a number of industry-watchers felt the Cardinals gave the outfielder too many years, therefore spending too much in total. Perhaps the Baltimore rumor hastened that.

After a meeting between Cardinals executives and Boras in Austin, Texas the first weekend of January, it took only a few more days to lock down the deal, thus ending one of the most up-and-down free agent sagas the Cardinal Nation has ever had to endure – until Pujols nears free agency, that is…

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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In my earlier post, “Time to act on the Holliday-Pujols contract FUD”, I concluded with a case why I think the timing is right for the St. Louis Cardinals to push to secure a contract extension for Albert Pujols on the heels of Matt Hollliday’s seven-year, $120 million deal. I said this despite the fact that Pujols is still two seasons away from free agency, an indication that perhaps there should be no urgency.

I also raised the possibility, albeit remote, of trading Pujols at this July’s deadline if it could be determined he would be unsignable. It would be a year and a half prior to his reaching free agency, but the last time the Cardinals could deal their franchise player without his consent. This has significant bargaining value for the organization if needed.

Many disagree with this entire line of thinking for different reasons.

• Some would not consider the notion of voluntarily parting ways with a franchise icon under any circumstances. I can understand that, though I think it is bad business not to thoroughly evaluate every avenue.
• Others feel that since both sides appear to be amenable to a deal, the boat should not be rocked. I can see that point of view, too, but waiting may become increasingly distracting to all involved due to external pressures. Good intentions alone do not always lead to the desired result.
• Yet others suggest Pujols’ re-signing price could actually decline over the next two years due to market, performance or injury factors. This is a real possibility, though one I think is less likely than the alternative. I am also concerned that the closer it gets to Pujols reaching free agency, the chance he ends up testing it may increase.

A first baseman with recent circumstances most similar to Pujols may be the New York Yankees’ Mark Teixeira. Last winter, agent Scott Boras extracted a mammoth commitment for $180 million over eight years for Tex, then a free agent. His $22.5 million annual salary is second only to teammate Alex Rodriguez in all of Major League Baseball.

What makes Teixeira’s story even more fascinating is his trade history. It is unusual for a player of his caliber to be dealt once, let alone twice, yet that is precisely what occurred. Better yet, the trades were one-and-half and a half-year respectively prior to his free agency.

As such, this offers an extraordinary view into the declining trade value of a top talent as free agency neared.

In July 2007, the Texas Rangers, Teixeira’s home since he was taken in the first round of the 2001 draft, dealt him to the Atlanta Braves. Their justification was the feeling they could not afford to keep their first baseman when he would achieve free agency following the 2008 season.

The Rangers’ take was immense – five of Atlanta’s top 20 prospects at the time, including their top three. (An aged journeyman lefty reliever, Ron Mahay, also joined Teixeira in Atlanta.) Three of the five prospects the Rangers received are now established major leaguers, exciting shortstop Elvis Andrus, hard-throwing pitcher Neftali Feliz and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. It is certainly not entirely due to this trade, but it is still worth noting that the Rangers have improved in each of the two seasons since trading Teixeira away.

One year later, the Braves found themselves in a similar situation, unable to keep Teixeira. With the first baseman closing in on free agency, their take from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was much less. For Teixeira, they received just two players – former top prospect and major leaguer Casey Kotchman plus the Angels’ then-sixth-ranked prospect.

With a year-and-a-half of hindsight, this second trade looks even worse than it did at the time. Kotchman has since been flipped twice, to Boston then Seattle, first for a partial season of Adam LaRoche, then for a major league reserve, Bill Hall, and a player to be named later. Kotchman is still struggling to establish himself as a front-line first base starter.

Once the 2008 season ended, Teixeira spurned the Angels for the Yankees and their hefty contract. Los Angeles received two draft picks in compensation. They became the 25th and 40th selections in the 2009 draft.

In summary, Teixeira’s market value dropped from five top prospects at 1.5 years out to one major leaguer and a top prospect at .5 years prior to free agency to finally a pair of future draft picks at signing, two players far from being able to contribute at the major league level.

While this may not have a direct relationship to Pujols’ situation with the Cardinals, it does illustrate that in the unlikely situation it is determined that he needs to be dealt, sooner is better than later, lest his trade value take a similar negative trajectory as Teixeira.

I want to reiterate that I am not advocating a trade, but I do believe the Cardinals need to push the Pujols camp into providing them a clear signal as to his signability within whatever long-term financial planning guidelines club officials have established. The Holliday trade opens the door to do this if it hasn’t already been done.

We as the public will likely not be informed of any discussions between the two sides, as it should be. The other edge of that sword is that no news will not be perceived by many as good news as the pages of the calendar slowly flip toward Pujols’ free agency.

If not now, at some point over the next two years, the external noise over Pujols’ future will become so deafening and the repetitive questions will become so distracting that perhaps both sides will just sit down and get the deal done.

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FUD.

Ever hear the term? Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt.

St. Louis Cardinals fans have lived under a haze of FUD almost from the moment general manager John Mozeliak announced the acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday on July 24 without having agreement on a contract extension for the then-free agent to be. It required almost six long months to get a deal done, which was finally announced on Tuesday.

Instead of celebrating the huge signing, one which makes the Cardinals the clear National League Central Division frontrunner and top challenger to the League Champion Phillies, many in the mainstream media couldn’t wait even 24 hours to start shoveling more FUD.

Though far from alone, one example is Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, who kicked off our unwanted sentence of another seven years of terrible Holliday-Holiday puns with his article entitled, “Cardinals’ short-lived Holliday celebration”. The side dish is a table with the pun-ishing heading “Card sharks”.

I can summarize the entire article and the reactions of many others with this single-sentence excerpt:

“If Matt Holliday costs $120 million, what on earth does that make Albert Pujols worth?”

Here’s the deal.

Even if Holliday had never been born on January 15, 1980, one day before Pujols, Albert would still be recognized as the best player in the game today. Holliday’s contract did nothing, zero, nada, zilch to increase Pujols’ value. It was already far more than either $120 million or $17 million annually.

FUD alert!

While Holliday scored a nice contract, do you have any idea how many other Major League Players currently make more than his $17 million per year? How many others have a deal greater than $120 million in total?

Give up? The answer is 14 and 11, respectively.

Might some of their deals be a better gauge of the top end of baseball’s pay scale than Holliday’s?

I know. That would blow the whole theme of part two of the FUD story – where the poor bumbling Cardinals awaken one day from their deep slumber only to see “Pujols standing next to Hal Steinbrenner or John Henry or Arte Moreno, flashing his teeth and holding up a new jersey,” as Passan suggests.

The author may be a former understudy of a player agent, as he spins a yarn suggesting Pujols’ new salary might somehow be tied to the on-paper increase of the value of his franchise or club revenue growth.

Let’s get real. The Cardinals wouldn’t have anted up for Holliday if they didn’t believe they could sign Pujols. The former is a very good player, but the latter is the face of the franchise. This ownership group knows what they are doing.

So, what might it take?

Realistically, putting aside Alex Rodriguez’ re-negotiation of his Texas Rangers contract which pays him $27.5 million per year, his Yankees teammate Mark Teixeira and Dodger Manny Ramirez are the highest-paid position players in terms of annual salary at $22.5 million each.

Given the downturn in the economy, should it take more than $25-$28 million per? That would be between $8 and $11 million per year more than Holliday. If Pujols wants seven or eight years like Holliday, give it to him. $175-$224 million is a wide enough bandwidth to work within. Even at $175M, only A-Rod ($275M), Derek Jeter ($189M) and Teixeira ($180M) have bigger deals.

In my opinion, the time for the Cardinals to push ahead with a substantive offer to Pujols is now. In the Thursday Post-Dispatch, Mozeliak was asked about this, but offered a reply that was far too passive for my tastes.

“If he (Pujols) and his representatives want to engage, we’re ready,” Mozeliak said.

Some are concerned with the idea that Pujols might feel disrespected by Holliday making more than him over the next two seasons, the remaining term on his current seven-year, $100 million contract. A way to quickly address that potential concern is to approach Pujols now about re-negotiating the next two years as part of his extension. Even if he turns the initiative down, he knows the team put forth the effort.

With the signing of Holliday, the Cardinals have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt their commitment to spend. Being as sensitive as he is, Pujols would not want to be painted as the bad guy by turning away a mega-deal from the club, especially after having made such a point in the past about wanting to see ownership commit to fielding a competitive team around him.

Ownership has done their part. Now it is Pujols’ turn.

Yet, forcing Pujols’ next step is not without risk. If he makes it clear that he wants a record-breaking, unprecedented, beat-A-Rod contract, his greed would be exposed. It might also punch his ticket out of town, an unthinkable idea to many.

While I don’t expect this to happen, if for some reason the Cardinals receive signals that crush their optimism over keeping Pujols, by acting now, they would still have time to consider how best to deal him. Waiting means the potential of receiving only a measly pair of future draft picks in return for the game’s best player if he reaches free agency.

At the end of the 2010 season, Pujols will receive full no-trade protection as he completes his tenth year as a major leaguer, the last five years with the same team. Realistically, that leaves the 2010 trade deadline as the best trade-no-trade target decision date.

By getting the ball rolling now, the Cardinals will put the pressure on Pujols to declare his hand. Even if Pujols really isn’t ready, both sides will have a much better idea where they stand.

Could they wait? Of course, they could. Pujols still has two years remaining on his current contract. Yet given Albert’s consistent success, how would his asking price go down in the future?

(I will pick up the remainder of the story here in an upcoming post.)

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