Miller broke recent convention in another manner as he became the first high school pitcher taken by the Cardinals in the initial round of the First-Year Player Draft since they selected Brian Barber with their third choice in 1991’s first round. (Ankiel was a second-round pick.)

Expectations are very high, as the Brownwood, Texas native was informally tabbed as the Cardinals next great pitching hope and immediately vaulted to the top of many organizational prospect-watchers’ lists.

Miller is expected to help replenish the high end of the Cardinals minor league pecking order after summer trades took away five of the organization’s picks from the first two rounds of the 2006 through 2008 drafts.

St. Louis’ first-round choice in the 2009 draft, taken 19^th overall, was initially showcased at Busch Stadium after signing, then threw batting practice in Quad Cities before making a pair of cameo appearances for the River Bandits to end his first season as a Cardinal.

Miller reportedly featured a fastball that topped out at 94 mph with a change-up and curveball as his secondary pitches. He yielded two earned runs on five hits and a pair of walks and added a pair of strikeouts over his first three professional innings.

The 6-foot-3, 207-pound right-hander’s fastball was regularly clocked in the mid-90s during the high school season. For Brownwood High, Miller posted a 10-2 record with a 1.90 ERA while striking out 153 batters in 77 innings.

Miller is expected to return to the Class-A Midwest League to start the 2010 season where he will likely appear in the battery with the Cards’ 2009 second-round pick, 20-year-old catcher Robert Stock.

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While the analysis showed the take in terms of results from the players selected with the extra picks were uneven and perhaps less than from the club’s regular selections in the same rounds, there is no dispute having more top players offers greater trading flexibility.

This article will look at compensation picks for which the Cardinals were eligible since 2005 and the ones they actually received, good for use in the following June’s First-Year Player Draft.

Some background first. Here we are discussing veteran (six or more years of MLB service time) free agents for whom a club has the right to offer arbitration on a one-year contract. The player has the right to accept or decline that offer.

A very high percentage of the time when offered, it is declined. Yet if offered, there is always the chance the player could accept. That would tie player and team together for another season at market price.

If the team declines to offer, then the player can sign anywhere without penalty. If the club offers and a player in the top 40 percent of his peers declines, the organization is entitled to draft pick compensation if that player agrees to terms with another team.

This latter case is our focus. Though I am not going to get into the details here, based on their performance, all players are ranked yearly into either the top 20 percent (Type A), second 20 percent (Type B) or the rest (no compensation).

The former club of a Type A free agent that was offered arbitration but declined receives two compensatory picks in the upcoming June draft when the player signs with a new team. One pick is an extra pick, called a “sandwich pick” added to the end of the first round and prior to the second, a period called the supplemental round. The other pick is taken from the new team and given to the old team, usually their first- or second-rounder.

A Type B player offered arbitration would fetch a sandwich pick only, meaning there is no real penalty to the signing team for having added the free agent.

There is another wrinkle. If an arbitration-eligible player signs with a new team before the December due date for the old team to offer arbitration, the old team receives the appropriate picks just as if they had offered the player later on.

(To be more complete, another way to secure an extra pick is in compensation for an unsigned player from the first three rounds of the previous draft. That case does not apply here.)

Ok, without further ado, here are the 17 Cardinals Type A (two picks in compensation) and Type B (one pick) free agents from the last four off-seasons.

FA	Draft	Player	Potential	Picks gained	Picks gained
			picks lost	signed early	offered arbitration
2008	2009	Russ Springer	2
		Jason Isringhausen	1
		Braden Looper	1
2007	2008	David Eckstein	1
		Troy Percival		1
2006	2007	Jeff Suppan			2
		Ronnie Belliard	2
		Jeff Weaver	1
		Jason Marquis	1
		Preston Wilson	1
2005	2006	Matt Morris			2
		Abraham Nunez		1
		Mark Grudzielanek	2
		Al Reyes	2
		Julian Tavarez	2
		Reggie Sanders	1
		John Mabry	1
		Four-year total	18	2	4

The 17 players represent a maximum of 24 possible draft picks. Only six of those compensatory picks, or one-fourth of them, were actually received by the Cardinals, having been collected from four of the 17 players. The Cards declined to offer arbitration to the other 13.

Even if the Cardinals had wanted to capture the maximum number of picks possible, some of the players might have accepted their offer and remained with the team. In that case, the club would not have received compensatory selections for those players and potentially been stuck with players they did not want.

In several other cases, however, the Cardinals left almost sure picks on the table by not offering arbitration for a player obviously leaving. This is consistent with the organization’s stated philosophy of not offering players unless they were wanted to return.

A prime example was former starting pitcher Jason Marquis. There seemed no way Marquis would have accepted an arbitration offer to return to the Cardinals for 2007 after the problems that culminated in him being left off the 2006 playoff rosters. The sandwich pick the Cardinals would have received had they offered and Marquis not accepted would have been a “free” one, not taken away from the signing team (the Cubs, who signed him for three years, $21 million).

In other cases, the Cardinals may have avoided offering a marginal Type A player because it would have diminished his value in the open market. A possible example is Ronnie Belliard. After having joined the Cardinals late in the 2006 season, the second baseman was declared a Type A. Few if any clubs would have forfeited their first or second-round pick in the 2007 draft just to sign a role player like Belliard.

Finally, there were a few players the Cardinals probably should have offered in the hope the player would accept and remain with the club. A glaring example is right-handed reliever Russ Springer (pictured). Despite having been very effective out of the pen during the prior two seasons, Springer was told prior to 2009 that the Cardinals wanted to get younger. 12 months later, one of the team’s reported priorities is to acquire – you guessed it – another veteran righty for the pen.

In two of the four cases in which they received comp picks, the Cardinals had no control over receiving those selections. Both Al Reyes (2005) and Troy Percival (2007) signed with their new clubs early. That gave the Cardinals two picks, whether they wanted them or not.

We know for sure only that the Cardinals wanted two of the 17 to come back, Matt Morris (2005) and Jeff Suppan (2006). In other words, they were the only two actually offered arbitration and each declined. When the two signed with San Francisco and Milwaukee respectively, St. Louis was awarded a total of four picks.

The Elias Rankings which define the Type status of all players, including free agents, are traditionally released near the end of the World Series. At that point, we will know what compensation, if any, the Cardinals’ nine 2009-2010 free agents may fetch – but only if they sign elsewhere early or arbitration is offered, that is.

With fewer elite players, the logic goes, there is no surprise the system did not perform as well as expected.

I decided to probe this. While there is no way to directly tie results on the field to players drafted, we can compare the Cardinals recent compensation picks to their overall early-round selections.

First, a bit of background. These extra or compensatory selections are awarded to a club in return for having lost a player due to free agency. They can either be extra selections, tacked onto the end of a round, called a supplemental round, or they can be picks taken away from another organization.

Because comp picks are in the first two rounds of the draft, that will be the comparison population. I have gone back over the last six drafts, to 2005. The club received no extra picks between 2001 and 2004, anyway.

The table that follows shows the Cardinals’ 20 picks over the initial two rounds during this time period, in what turns out to have been a very symmetrical ten and ten, respectively. On the left are the regular selections and on the right are the compensatory picks.

In the “Comp” column, when the pick was an extra one, the departing player’s name is noted in parentheses. When the pick was taken from another club, that team’s name is listed.

Year	Rd	Pick	Score	Departed		Rd	Comp	Pick	Score	Departed
2009	1	Shelby Miller	flat
	2	Robert Stock	flat
2008	1	Brett Wallace	boom	trade		1s	(Percival)	Lance Lynn	boom
	2	Shane Peterson	flat	trade
2007	1	Pete Kozma	flat			1s	(Suppan)	Clayton Mortensen	boom	trade
	2	Jess Todd	boom	trade		2	Milwaukee	David Kopp	bust
2006	1	Adam Ottavino	flat			1s	(Morris)	Chris Perez	boom	trade
	2	Jon Jay	flat			2	Giants	Brad Furnish	bust
						2s	(Nunez)	Mark Hamilton	flat
2005	1	Tyler Greene	flat			1	Red Sox	Colby Rasmus	boom
	2	Nick Webber	bust	release		1s	(Renteria)	Mark McCormick	bust
						1s	(Matheny)	Tyler Herron	bust	release
						2	Giants	Josh Wilson	bust	retire

The first thing to note is how the number of comp picks dropped each year from 2005 through 2009 in a linear manner, from four to three to two to one to none this past summer.

The number of comp picks each year is in direct result to the rate at which the Cardinals either offer or do not offer arbitration to departing free agents. This is a subject to which I will return in a future post.

Another point that stands out is that eight of the Cardinals 20 top picks from the last five years are no longer in the organization. Five are gone due to trades, two of whom were originally comp picks, while the other three departees represent picks that did not pan out.

You have noted I devised a very simple and subjective measurement system to score each pick. As such, my scores are both debatable and changeable over time. They are:

Boom – player has either reached the majors or is ahead of pace to do so

Flat – player has neither excelled nor failed – jury is still out

Bust – player has not achieved his potential

Here is a scorecard of the picks by category. Note that there have been both more “booms” and “busts” from the extra picks, while the regular selections are mostly still in limbo.

	Reg picks	Extra picks	Total	Departed	Remaining
boom	2	4	6	4	2
flat	7	1	8	1	7
bust	1	5	6	3	3

A quick summary by year:

2009 – The top two picks have not played enough professional ball to assess their futures.

2008 – Lance Lynn and Brett Wallace have been solid and advanced quickly, while Shane Peterson leveled off in Double-A this year. Of course, the latter two are now part of the Oakland A’s system due to the Matt Holliday trade.

2007 – Both Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen reached the majors rapidly, though both have been since dealt away. Pete Kozma’s breakout has yet to occur while David Kopp cannot remain healthy and finished the season back in A ball. The latter two still can raise their scores, though.

2006 – Chris Perez was a boom, but is also gone. College draftees Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay and Mark Hamilton did make Triple-A in their fourth seasons, but the jury remains out on their major league futures. Brad Furnish hasn’t mastered Double-A.

2005 – Colby Rasmus is obviously the cream of the crop. Tyler Greene reached the majors briefly in his fifth season, but has been a disappointment overall. The other four picks have not delivered, with three already gone from the organization and the fourth, Mark McCormick, perpetually injured.

As I have noted in other posts, I firmly believe the 2005 draft has been the overriding difference-maker for the rise in stature of the Cardinals system. This data reaffirms that other than Rasmus, the keys from 2005 were players taken in later rounds, not the extra picks they had that draft year.

	boom	flat	bust
2009	0	2	0
2008	2	1	0
2007	2	1	1
2006	1	3	1
2005	1	1	4
total	6	8	6

In closing, certainly the extra picks the Cardinals enjoyed in recent years gave them a larger population of top players. So far, it has equated to additional trade fodder more than anything else.

It remains to be seen if the regular picks turn out to be a better group of players overall compared to the comp picks, but there seems to be considerably more remaining potential there.

This spring, McCully posted an 8-1 record with a 2.10 ERA in 28 appearances. He collected eight saves and struck out 64 in 73 innings pitched. Opposing batters hit just .197 against him.

Taken with the 279^th pick overall this June, McCully was listed on the tentative season-opening roster of the short-season Batavia Muckdogs of the New York-Penn League, but apparently took a bit longer to come to terms.

McCully will be the 40^th of the Cardinals’ 50 draftees to sign and the second member of the class to be assigned to the full-season league, following eighth-rounder Jason Stidham, who joined the River Bandits on Thursday.

But the expected announcement did not occur. It is coming, but a few days later than thought.

“Jason is signing today if he hasn’t already,” Mike Martin, Florida State University’s head baseball coach told the Talahassee Democrat on Wednesday. “The last couple of days I hadn’t gotten my hopes up that he might come back. I kind of figured he would sign.”

The second-team All-ACC infielder led FSU this season with 24 doubles. Stidham hit .363 and started all 63 games. The junior added 12 home runs for the FSU squad that had reached the NCAA super regionals before falling.

“The hard thing is replacing a player with his experience and a player who was a clutch guy for three years,” Martin said. “When you needed a big hit, Jason got it done. He was an outstanding leader.”

Stock was a two-way player with the USC Trojans as he also was a member of the pitching staff.  Stock batted .226 with six home runs and 30 RBI this past season.  He walked 23 times and struck out 24 in 137 at-bats.  Stock batted .263 with 14 home runs and 74 RBI in his three-year Trojan career. He made national headlines after he bypassed his senior year in high school to join the Trojans as a 17-year-old freshman in 2007.  Stock was named 2005 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year.  Stock will begin his pro career at short-season Johnson City as a catcher.

Kelly, from the University of California-Riverside, was named Big West Conference Pitcher of the Year as a freshman in 2007.  This season, he was 1-1 with a 5.65 ERA in 23 games out of the bullpen.  Kelly’s father, Joseph Sr., played football at Vanderbilt and for the San Diego Chargers.

Playing for perennial powerhouse Miami, Ryan Jackson was regarded as one of college baseball’s top defenders in his three-year career at UM.  After hitting .236 as a freshman in 2007, Jackson earned All-America honors as a sophomore after his average jumped 124 points to .360. The Miami Springs, Fla. native led the 2008 `Canes with 19 doubles, and tallied 38 in his career. This past season, Jackson hit .263 with four homers, 38 runs scored and a .362 on-base percentage.  In his three collegiate seasons, Jackson hit .293 with eight homers, 103 RBI, 115 runs scored and 19 stolen bases. He is expected to open with Batavia.

This make the official signing count 35 of 50 of the organization’s 2009 draftees.

I included both quantities signed as well as noting the top pick that remained unsigned. The lowest-yield year was 2006, but even then, the Cards signed their top ten picks and 20 of their first 22.

The failed Kyle Russell (pictured) negotiations in 2007 kept the fourth-rounder from Texas in school. Though there was disappointment at the time, at least the player himself seems to have been overrated. Still, with the benefit of clear hindsight, having been able to use that selection on another quality player would have been preferred.

The 2008 record of top 30 picks signed is admirable, but there is a necessary asterisk applied. 13th rounder Mitchell Harris‘ Navy commitment keeps him off the mound for a considerable period. He is technically signed, but obviously unable to contribute.

The Cardinals have a good start in 2009, with as many as 38 already committed at the time this post was made. While picks number one, three, four, seven and ten are among the unsigned, there remains plenty of runway to get their deals done. If so, a take of 43 would be very consistent with recent years.

Of course, signing is but one measure. Though a necessary step, it is a very early one. More important is the quantity and quality of major leaguers that evolve from these drafts, a final verdict for which the jury will remain out for some time.

Draft	Signed	Picks	% Signed	Top Signed	1st Unsigned	Name
2009	TBD	52
2008	43	51	84.3%	1st 30*	30th round*	RHP Brett Bruening
2007	45	52	86.5%	1st four	4th round	OF Kyle Russell
2006	38	53	71.7%	1st 12	10th round	RHP Blair Erickson
2005	43	51	84.3%	1st 15	12th round	RHP Daniel McCutchen

The earliest draft pick to agree to a contract was OF Virgil Hill from Los Angeles Mission College, the Cardinals sixth-round choice. The former MLB Youth Academy Participant is the son of former light-heavyweight boxing champion Virgil Hill.

Among the others coming to terms was first baseman Alan Ahmady of Fresno State (pictured), who was suspended last month for a violation of athletic department policy. It was the junior’s second suspension this season and third in two years.

Below is the complete list of players from the 2009 MLB Draft who agreed to terms with the Cardinals on Monday.

Rd.	Player	Pos.	B-T	Ht.	Wt.	School	Hometown
6	Virgil Hill	OF	R-R	6-0	185	Los Angeles Mission College	Valencia, CA
11	Alan Ahmady	1B	R-R	5-11	195	Fresno State University	Fresno, CA
12	Pat Daugherty	LHP	L-L	6-5	215	Pearl River CC	Bailey, MS
13	Matt Carpenter	3B	L-R	6-3	208	Texas Christian University	Sugar Land, TX
14	Ross Smith	OF	R-R	6-2	200	Middle Georgia College	Eastman, GA
15	David Washington	1B	L-L	6-5	200	University City HS	University City, CA
17	Jonathan Rodriguez	1B	R-R	6-2	215	Manatee JC	San Juan, PR
18	Anthony Garcia	C	R-R	6-0	180	San Juan Educational School	Carolina, PR
19	Travis Tartamella	C	R-R	6-0	205	California State University at LA	Alta Loma, CA
20	Scott Schneider	RHP	R-R	6-0	175	St. Mary’s College	Fallbrook, CA
23	Matthew Adams	C	L-R	6-3	245	Slippery Rock University	Philipsburg, PA
24	Keith Butler	RHP	R-R	6-0	175	Wabash Valley College	Morgantown, KY
25	Josh Squatrito	RHP	R-R	6-1	205	Towson University	Willow Street, PA
26	Christian Beatty	OF	S-R	5-10	190	North Carolina A&T	Winston-Salem, NC
27	Johnathan Fulino	RHP	L-R	6-4	190	University of Connecticut	Quincy, MA
28	Justin Edwards	LHP	L-L	6-2	188	Kennesaw State University	Guyton, GA
29	Daniel Calhoun	LHP	L-L	6-2	205	Murray State University	Evansville, IN
31	Tyler Bighames	SS	R-R	6-2	190	Estero HS	Estero, FL
32.	Travis Lawler	RHP	R-R	6-3	180	Midland College	College Station, TX
33.	Devin Goodwin	SS	R-R	5-11	185	Delta State University	Russellville, AL
34.	David Kington	RHP	R-R	6-2	200	University of So. Illinois-Carbondale	Coquitlam, B.C.
35.	Andrew Moss	RHP	R-R	6-1	210	Lincoln University	Piedmont, MO
36.	Justin Smith	RHP	R-R	6-0	190	Utah Valley University	Pleasant Grove, UT
37.	Richard Racobaldo	3B	R-R	6-2	215	Mt. Olive College	Marlton, NJ
38.	John Durham	LHP	L-L	6-1	170	Warner Southern College	Port St. Lucie, FL
40.	Jesse Simpson	RHP	R-R	6-0	185	College of Charleston	Baton Rouge, LA
41.	Cale Johnson	RHP	R-R	6-2	200	McKendree University	Greenville, IL
42.	Aaron Terry	RHP	R-R	5-11	185	Southern Arkansas University	Rison, AR
43.	Manuel De La Cruz	LHP	L-L	6-2	225	Imperial Valley College	El Centro, CA
44.	Kyle Heim	LHP	L-L	6-4	220	University of Iowa	St. Joe, MO
47.	Michael Thompson	RHP	L-R	6-0	200	Bellarmine College	Newburgh, IN
48.	Jason Novak	RHP	R-R	6-2	205	UCLA	Agoura Hills, CA

For the entire draft, the Cardinals selection breakdown was as follows:

29 pitchers (21-RHP, 8-LHP)

11 infielders

six catchers

four outfielders

The Cardinals second-round pick, Robert Stock out of USC, will begin his pro career as a catcher and that is reflected in these numbers.  St. Louis selected 43 college players and seven high school prospects.

2009 FIRST-YEAR PLAYER DRAFT – CARDINALS’ DAY 3 RECAP

Rd.	Player	Pos.	B-T	Ht.	Wt.	School	Hometown
31	Tyler Bighames	SS	R-R	6-2	190	Estero HS	Estero, FL
32.	Travis Lawler	RHP	R-R	6-3	180	Midland College	College Station, TX
33.	Devin Goodwin	SS	R-R	5-11	185	Delta State University	Russellville, AL
34.	David Kington	RHP	R-R	6-2	200	University of So. Illinois-Carbondale	Coquitlam, B.C.
35.	Andrew Moss	RHP	R-R	6-1	210	Lincoln University	Piedmont, MO
36.	Justin Smith	RHP	R-R	6-0	190	Utah Valley University	Pleasant Grove, UT
37.	Richard Racobaldo	3B	R-R	6-2	215	Mt. Olive College	Marlton, NJ
38.	John Durham	LHP	L-L	6-1	170	Warner Southern College	Port St. Lucie, FL
39.	Taylor Terrasas	SS	R-R	6-0	185	Santa Fe HS	Santa Fe, TX
40.	Jesse Simpson	RHP	R-R	6-0	185	College of Charleston	Baton Rouge, LA
41.	Cale Johnson	RHP	R-R	6-2	200	McKendree University	Greenville, IL
42.	Aaron Terry	RHP	R-R	5-11	185	Southern Arkansas University	Rison, AR
43.	Manuel De La Cruz	LHP	L-L	6-2	225	Imperial Valley College	El Centro, CA
44.	Kyle Heim	LHP	L-L	6-4	220	University of Iowa	St. Joe, MO
45.	Adam Heisler	OF	L-R	5-11	180	University of South Alabama	Mobile, AL
46.	James Klocke	C	L-R	6-0	195	Southeast Missouri State University	St. Louis, MO
47.	Michael Thompson	RHP	L-R	6-0	200	Bellarmine College	Newburgh, IN
48.	Jason Novak	RHP	R-R	6-2	205	UCLA	Agoura Hills, CA
49.	Andrew Hillis	RHP	R-R	6-6	218	Brentwood HS	Brentwood, TN
50.	Tyler Lavigne	RHP	R-R	6-0	190	San Diego State University	Las Vegas, NV

Among the Cards’ selections Wednesday were 13 pitchers, seven infielders, four outfielders, and three catchers. Fifth-round selection, shortstop Ryan Jackson from the University of Miami is pictured.

St. Louis began and ended their day with selections of pitchers from Ole Miss, with Joseph Bittle taken in the fourth round and Chris Corrigan in the 30th.  Current Cardinals prospect Lance Lynn, now pitching at Double-A Springfield, is an Ole Miss alum and former teammate of the pair.

2009 FIRST-YEAR PLAYER DRAFT – CARDINALS’ DAY 2 RECAP

Miller is considered by many to have the best fastball in the draft and it was rated tops among prep pitchers by Baseball America.  He was rated the 7th-best right-handed pitcher in the draft by Baseball America. The 18-year-old is a solid athlete, also starring on the football field as a tight end and punter for Brownwood High School.  Shelby has a commitment to attend Texas A&M as its top baseball recruit.

“Shelby was the best player available to us when we picked and we were glad he was available,” said Cardinal Vice President, Scouting and Player Development Jeff Luhnow.  “He is a strong kid with a solid make-up and a plus-plus fastball that is difficult to hit.  We are going to do our best to sign him and get him in the Cardinals system soon.”

Miller was 10-2 with a 1.90 ERA this past season for Brownwood.  He struck out 153 batters in 77.0 innings pitched and allowed 36 walks and 38 hits.

It is the third time in the last six years that the Cardinals went with a high school prospect with their first pick. Their last top pick out of a high school program was Peter Kozma in 2007.  Miller, 6’3, 195”, is the first high school pitcher selected in the first round by the Cardinals since they selected Brian Barber with the third of three first-round selections in 1991 (compensation from Mets for Type B free agent Vince Coleman).

The Cardinals chose catcher Robert Stock out of the University of Southern California with their second round pick (67th overall).  Stock was a two-way player with the Trojans as he also was a member of the pitching staff.  Stock batted .226 with six home runs and 30 RBI this past season.  He walked 23 times and struck out 24 in 137 at-bats.  Stock batted .263 with 14 home runs and 74 RBI in his three-year Trojan career.

On the mound, Stock was 5-4 with a 2.90 ERA (77.2 IP / 25 ER) in 20 outings (nine starts).  He walked 39 and struck out 86 in 77.2 IP. In his last start, Stock threw seven scoreless innings at Cal, allowing four hits and striking out seven.  He made national headlines after he bypassed his senior year in high school to join the Trojans as a 17-year-old freshman in 2007.  Stock was named 2005 Baseball America Youth Player of the Year.

Joseph Kelly of the University of California-Riverside was chosen in the third round by the Cardinals (98th overall).  He was named Big West Conference Pitcher of the Year as a freshman in 2007.  Kelly gained a save in the Big West Championship-clinching win over #10 UC Irvine on 5/27/07.  This season, he was 1-1 with a 5.65 ERA in 23 games out of the bullpen.  Kelly’s father, Joseph Sr., played football at Vanderbilt University and for the San Diego Chargers.

2009 FIRST-YEAR PLAYER DRAFT – CARDINALS’ DAY 1 RECAP

That is true, depending on how you classify the supplemental first round. Chris Duncan, taken 46^th overall in 1999 in the supplemental first round also has been a major leaguer for the better part of four years.

That got me to thinking about how dry the top end of the Cardinals recent drafts have been. (When you have been following the team as long as I have, even 1998 seems fairly recent!)

In a series of articles called “Doctoring the Numbers” featured at Baseball Prospectus in 2006, writer Rany Jazayerli looked at 16 years of draft output across MLB. He determined that 49.3% of the top 100 players taken in the draft reached the major leagues – with any club.

Another study mentioned at Dugout Central last summer notes that 67% of first-round draft picks make the major leagues. That analysis covered 36 years worth of data, from 1965 until 2001.

With that backdrop, let’s look at how the Cardinals’ picks in the first round and in the top 100 have fared from when Drew was taken 1998 up until Rasmus’ selection in 2005.

First, I present the raw data, with future major leaguers’ names in bold. The highest level of play attained by all 21 players is noted, bookended by Drew on the front end and Rasmus on the back end. Drew and his 1998 class are included in the numbers that follow, but Rasmus and the 2005 draft are not, as the jury is still out on many of those players.

First round

As the table shows, during the seven years of 1998 through 2004, the Cardinals had seven picks in the first 30 selections, including two in 2000 and none in 2002. The Cardinals lost their first two picks in the latter year due to the free agent signings of Jason Isringhausen and Tino Martinez.

In addition to Drew, two others from this group of seven eventually made the major leagues, though neither Daric Barton (Oakland) nor Chris Lambert (Detroit) did it while still wearing a Cardinals uniform.

That 43% yield, albeit on a very small sample, is substantially lower than the 67% expected.

Though the study data referenced above does not further delineate the spot in the first round in which the picks are made, it is worth noting that Drew was the only one of the seven Cardinals picks taken in the first dozen in any given year and only three were in the top 20. In other words, four of the seven were in the back third of the first round. Still, 67 percent is 67 percent.

First round including supplemental picks

I couldn’t locate any historical first round data that clearly delineated when supplemental picks were included. Therefore, I have no point of comparison for the 50% highlighted here, other than to note that while it isn’t all that great, it is slightly higher than the “pure” first round-only results of 43%. That seems counterintuitive, but perhaps it is an indication of the slightly larger population of players.

To go along with the three names mentioned just above plus Duncan, pitcher Ben Diggins, the number 32 pick overall in 1998, debuted with the 2002 Milwaukee Brewers.

Top 100 picks

Expanding the aperture to the top 100 players drafted each year adds five more MLB’ers, all of whom debuted with St. Louis. Of the five, only Dan Haren has been an impact player in the bigs, though.

Ten of the Cardinals’ 21 top 100 picks made starting with Drew and ending before the Rasmus selection reached the major leagues. That success rate of 47.6% is only slightly below Jazayerli’s 49.3% cross-MLB expectation.

Quantity vs. quality

Note that this article does not delineate between a “cup of coffee” player and a long-time major league contributor. To assess the longer term value of Cardinals draftees, please reference Dave Spitze’s pair of published articles at Scout.com.

The essence of the conclusion made is that the Cardinals are one of the top two clubs in MLB in terms of total player at-bats and innings pitched as well as key stats accrued by their draftees.

The catch is that many of those players had previously been traded away by the club. That reality was a by-product of the organizational strategy then in place – to swap top prospects for established major leaguers.