Before this gets underway, clubs have a decision to make. Teams must specifically decide if they want enter the process by an annual deadline. The alternative is that the player will be granted free agency. This year’s cutoff is midnight Eastern time tonight, Monday, December 12.

The St. Louis Cardinals have four eligible players, pitchers Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte and infielders Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot. Each of them might make in the $2-$4 million range next season.

In the polls below, please specify what you think the Cardinals should do. Should they offer contracts to none, all four or something in between?

Further, should the money not spent on Albert Pujols affect the Cardinals’ arbitration decisions on these four? In other words, should the Cardinals be willing to risk spending more on these players because they no longer have Pujols, or do you consider the two to be separate?

What happens next?

If the club agrees by “tendering a contract” by the deadline, the player and team are bound together for the upcoming season. They can either negotiate a contract at any time or participate in an arbitration hearing to be scheduled in February. Each side submits in advance the salary level it believes is fair. If it reaches the hearing stage, one of the two submitted contract amounts will be decided upon by the arbitrators after hearing each side’s case.

If the player is “non-tendered,” he becomes a free agent, eligible to sell his services on the open market to any club, including the Cardinals.

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Because these changes do not fully take effect until this coming fall, the Lords of Baseball agreed on interim terms that impact a handful members of this year’s free agent class. (FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has all the details.)

As a result, the St. Louis Cardinals look to be short-term winners, at least on a small scale.

Five of the club’s eight major league free agents were deemed compensation-eligible by the two-year Elias Rankings that will be eliminated after this year. They are first baseman Albert Pujols (Type A), shortstop Rafael Furcal and pitchers Octavio Dotel, Edwin Jackson and Arthur Rhodes (all Type B*).

The Cardinals must make an offer of arbitration for a one-year contract to these players* by midnight tonight, Wednesday, November 23, or they will be ineligible to receive compensation if the players sign elsewhere.

Pujols’ case is easy to predict. The Cardinals will offer arbitration because Pujols would never accept a one-year deal at this point. Of course, the organization hopes the two compensatory picks associated with the offer will not come into play and he re-signs with them.

My suspicion is that neither Furcal, Jackson nor Rhodes will be offered.

The two-year, $10.5 million contract that shortstop Clint Barmes received from the Pirates could signal that Furcal has an opportunity to do much better elsewhere. Despite the Cards wanting him back, I doubt they would risk going to an arbitration hearing.

Jackson, a Scott Boras client, may receive a Kyle Lohse-type of contract from some pitching-hungry club. While the Cardinals could likely pick up a comp pick by offering, in the past they have not made offers to players they do not want to bring back. That seems to be the case here. It has nothing to do with Jackson’s skills. With the Cardinals’ 2012 rotation already set and a lot of money committed to them, there seems no room at the inn for him.

Rhodes is 42 years of age. Hopefully, the 2012 Cardinals will look in another direction.

* That leaves the interesting case of Dotel. Originally, he was named a Type A free agent, which restricted his appeal to other clubs, since they would lose their first- or second-round pick by signing him. It was a high price for a reliever.

That changed this week. The special interim rules just enacted freed a small group of relief pitchers, including Dotel. He is among those immediately moved to Type B, but the Cardinals actually benefit by being assured of a compensation pick between the first and second rounds if/when Dotel signs with another club for 2012.

The team lost the chance for two picks (which they were very unlikely to chase, anyway) and get one without having to take action. The player benefits as a new prospective team will not lose a high selection by signing him.

With a draft pick essentially already in hand, the Cardinals have no reason to make Dotel an offer of arbitration. Further, with younger and cheaper right-handed relief alternatives in house, I predict they will not bring him back in 2012.

At the bottom line, there are three possible cases based on my predictions:

1) If Pujols and Dotel re-sign with the Cardinals, the club will receive no extra picks.

2) If Pujols re-signs, the Cardinals would gain one compensation pick from the loss of Dotel. This is my most likely scenario.

3) If neither re-sign with St. Louis, the Cards would pick up a first- or second-round pick plus two compensation selections in the 2012 draft.

Update: The Cardinals’ arbitration offer decisions are outlined at TheCardinalNation.com.

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Following is a summary of some of the key elements as reported by AP, the New York Times, FOX Sports and other sources.

Free agent compensation

Type A free agents – 2011 – The group of eligible players will be pared back to just the top stars, while players like relievers will be excluded from requiring compensation. The lists are yet to be disclosed.

Type A free agents – 2012 and beyond – The Elias Rating system will be scrapped. Clubs must have made a “qualifying offer” of at least $12.4 million on a one-year contract to receive compensation if a player later signs elsewhere. The qualifying amount increases in later years.

Type B free agents that generate a compensatory sandwich pick will be eliminated.

Draft and international players

A spending cap on amateur player spending will be put in place. A maximum amount that teams can spend on both draft picks and international free agents will be established. Clubs will be penalized from 75 percent to 100 percent or potentially even lose future first- and second-round draft picks if they excessively exceed the limit.

Salary

The minimum Major League salary will jump from $414,000 to $480,000 initially, and to $500,000 over the life of the five-year agreement.

Arbitration

The percentage of “Super Two” players eligible for arbitration between their second and third years of service time will be increased from the top 17 percent of players to 22 percent.

PEDs

Human Growth Hormone blood testing will begin in February, with penalties the same as for steroids today.

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Whether or not a major leaguer is eligible for arbitration is a big deal in terms of compensation as that is the first time a young player can argue in favor of receiving market value instead of a near-minimum salary.

For most, the point of qualification is very clear. Three years of major league service is that tipping point. However, as part of the collective bargaining between the players and ownership, a special arbitration sub-group was added, called Super Twos.

This group consists of the top 17 percent of players with between two and three years of service, where “top” is defined as those having the most service time. This cutoff line varies by year depending on the players in the population, but is often around two years, 130 days. Essentially, being a Super Two means a player can be arbitration-eligible for four years prior to free agency instead of the normal three.

Hence the case of Jaime Garcia.

Coming into this season, Garcia’s service time was listed in the St. Louis Cardinals media guide as 1.147, or one year, 147 days. This information was picked up by a number of online data sources.

The problem is that it wasn’t accurate. Based on the rookie left-hander’s history, the numbers just didn’t add up, with the reported number seemingly too high. After all, just one year prior, Garcia’s service time was 0.081. It seemed impossible for anyone to accrue well over one year of service in just 12 months.

This came to light for me after a discussion with a member of The Cardinal Nation message board community, CariocaCardinal I think, back in March. At that point, I checked with the Cardinals organization and confirmed the 1.147 was in error. It should have read 1.047.

After a full season with the Cardinals in 2010, Garcia’s current service is now 2.047, well below the point where the Super Two line will be drawn. In other words, the Cards can pretty much renew Garcia’s 2011 salary at an above-minimum rate of their choosing.

Unfortunately, that word didn’t completely get out.

Especially this time of year, a segment of the fan base really gets into the bowels of the payroll, both committed and projected. In that light, I was asked about Garcia most recently because of a Thursday article at MLB.com in which he is listed as arbitration-eligible along with teammates Brendan Ryan and Kyle McClellan. The latter two are not under question, each having three or more years of service.

It also came up during a Joe Strauss chat at the Post-Dispatch on Wednesday. He had the incorrect date as well and answered a reader question accordingly. When asked about it later on Twitter, Strauss initially stuck to the number, but after I weighed in, he checked his sources and verified the mistake.

I bring this up not to criticize the Cardinals, Strauss or Matthew Leach, the MLB writer, in any way. Both writers used the best information available to them to draw their conclusion, yet both documents remain up on their respective websites with the incorrect conclusion drawn. The wrong service time for Garcia is also still listed on several prominent internet reference sites.

As such, the purpose of this post is simply to help clarify the situation. Garcia will not yet be eligible for arbitration, likely having saved the Cardinals several million dollars in 2011 as a result.

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Here in mid-January, the St. Louis Cardinals payroll management strategy for 2010 still remains under question.

One milestone occurred in early December when during a presentation at Webster University, team president Bill DeWitt III hinted his club might not spend up to their total player budget, expected to be around $100 million.

“Clubs have a tendency — and we’ve been guilty in the past — of putting every resource into the team in the offseason. That just doesn’t leave you any flexibility,” DeWitt III said.

Showing restraint would be a repeat of an approach that was widely ridiculed during the previous winter. The term “keeping powder dry” in reference to holding back money was first coined by his father, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.

As we saw in 2009, if game attendance exceeds the Cardinals planning numbers, they could also choose to apply additional financial resources to players. Some combination of “dry powder” plus new expense money opened the door to trade for and take on the salaries of Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday in June and July, respectively.

About ten days ago, back on January 7, as the club digested the Holliday re-signing, general manager John Mozeliak was quoted as saying the following:

“[Assistant GM John] Abbamondi, myself, Jeff [Luhnow, scouting director and farm director] and the group will sit down tomorrow. I’ll then also get with Tony [La Russa, manager] over the weekend and we’ll kind of prioritize what we think, if we had a bullet to use, what would we use it on. Once we get to that point, then we’ll look at what’s out there and how to use that resource if it’s there. We may stand pat. But we’ll see.”

In the process, Mozeliak outlined the two primary outcomes for some or all of the remaining budget – either acquire one additional significant player using their so-called “bullet”, keep dry powder or perhaps a combination of the two.

How much money are we talking about?

The Post-Dispatch offered a graphical summary following Holliday’s re-signing. In it, they suggest the Cardinals will have $7.4 million remaining to spend. One of the few assumptions required was an estimation of the 2010 salaries of arbitration-eligible players Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick.

Though Schumaker is hinting he is close to coming to terms, completely resolving both players’ 2010 salaries may not be happening soon. At Winter Warm-Up, Mozeliak said the Cardinals would like the contracts of both Schumaker and Ludwick completed before his club dips back into the free-agent pool.

This sequencing doesn’t completely hold together to me.

In his first season of arbitration eligibility, Schumaker should be the easier of the two to sign. The real question is how big of a raise Ludwick is looking for coming off a season in which he made $3.7 million, but delivered declining results compared to 2008.

(For my detailed views of how comparable players’ salaries might be applied, The Cardinal Nation subscribers can read my January 7 article, “How Much Will Schumaker and Ludwick Make?”. At the low end, I have the two coming in at $6.9 million combined, while the P-D estimates they will make $8.5 million in total when all is said and done.)

Here’s my concern. The Cardinals surely have a planning bandwidth for the two arbitration cases and would seem to be position to have at least $6 million remaining once the two arbitration deals are done. (This assumes the Post-Dispatch estimates for the two will turn out to be $1.4 million too low, which I strongly doubt is the case.)

Both sides will formally know how far they are apart on Tuesday, when club and player arbitration amounts must be filed. Though the parties could come to terms at any time, if disagreement remains, the conclusion could drag on until a hearing scheduled as late as the third week in February – the time pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training.

Again, either way, with conservatively $6 million or more in their chest, why would they be waiting, unless they are planning to save dry powder?

The P-D reports the Cardinals have been in contact with pitcher John Smoltz’ agent but they would like the veteran to wait for a potential offer until they have a better feel for their payroll. The paper has been in contact with the future Hall-of-Famer, who says he has heard nothing substantive from the Cardinals. Smoltz went on to say that while he would like to return to St. Louis, he is preparing to move on.

At 43 years old next season, Smoltz offers at least as an intriguing relief alternative as he would be a fifth starter. His likely contract would include a base deal of several million dollars with incentives for several more, seemingly within the amount of money the Cardinals have remaining.

High on the list of other possible options could include a right-handed hitting outfield reserve who could spell Colby Rasmus in centerfield and veteran depth at third base behind untested starter David Freese.

There is one other possibility for waiting – the knowledge that as spring training nears, prices for the remaining unsigned free agents will go down. Though Mozeliak isn’t saying it, using some of that dry powder over the next six weeks wouldn’t necessarily keep them from gaining and deploying more later.

Even if the Cardinals decide not to make another significant signing this winter, they have already done enough to position themselves as National League Central Division favorites for 2010. Without immediate additional spending, not everyone will be content, however. The annual resurrection of the “DeWallet” loonies, armchair critics of ownership’s player payrolls, is quite possible if the Cardinals head into the season with a mid-$90 million payroll. Instead of applauding player development and efficient spending, the simplistic minds of the habitual complainers can only compare annual bottom lines.

After last year, I have become a believer that if the Cardinals need help during the season and they play well enough to deserve it, ownership will come through. In the meantime, the primary pressure should be on the players and coaches to win.

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Despite the risk of the latter two players accepting and returning to St. Louis on a one-year, arbitration-driven contract, the club rolled the dice. The potential gain is considerable – a total of four extra draft picks. Three will be between the first and second rounds of the 2010 draft and the other will be in either the first or second round.

The Cardinals can either take all four and help rebuild their farm system, decimated by trading five top picks for Holliday and DeRosa or perhaps use them to offset the loss of one or two of their own top picks if they decide to sign any Type A free agents themselves.

Because Holliday is the top-scored free agent available in the Elias Rankings, he is guaranteed to fetch either the first- or second-round pick from the club that signs him. (Assuming he does not return to St. Louis.) The exact pick depends on the 2009 finish of the signing team. The worst 15 teams last season would only forfeit their second-round selection, while the best 15 teams would lose their first-rounder.

The Cardinals will also receive three “sandwich” picks between the first and second rounds of the 2010 draft, one each for Holliday, DeRosa and Pineiro, if the players do not accept the Cards’ arbitration offer.

But exactly where in the 2010 draft would these compensatory picks be?

We currently have no way of telling.

All we know is that 23 of 70 eligible players were offered arbitration, 10 Type A and 13 Type B. That means as many as ten first or second-round picks could be changing hands and up to 23 extra picks will be added between rounds one and two of the 2010 draft.

To determine the precise order of the compensation-round picks, we need to know the comparative detailed Elias score of each free agent. This information has not yet been released by the MLB Players Association (MLBPA), though the Type A free agent scores only have apparently been leaked.

In past years, not only have the Type designations of each free agent been released, they were made available for all players, free agent or not. Here is the full list from one year ago: link

This year, all that has been formally published is the simple A/B designation of the free agents only with no 1) relative scores, 2) position detail, or 3) information on the non-free agents. The first is most important to answer the questions posed above.

I wonder if the MLBPA is being more tight-lipped since the Elias Ranking system has been under increasing fire due to several factors, including an overly-high value placed on relievers and some very odd placements of players.

Some have tried to crack the Elias scoring algorithms, which include stats such as batting average, home runs and RBI for hitters, and innings, ERA, saves and strikeouts for pitchers, but have been only partially successful.

I have some inquiries out and hope to be able to shed more light soon on where in the comp round the Cardinals three picks will be. Certainly Holliday’s will be up front. That much we know.

Note: In related recent posts, I highlighted both the Cardinals recent compensatory picks and those they may have passed up.

Major update: I did some additional research today and have learned my assumption above is incorrect. Here is how the supplemental round is actually ordered:

(All picks are in reverse order of 2009 standings just like the regular rounds)

• All teams losing Type A’s get one pick
• All teams losing a second Type A get their second pick, etc.
• All teams losing Type Bs get one pick
• All teams losing a second Type B get their second pick, etc.

So what this means for the Cardinals is that the comp pick for Holliday will not be first. His top Elias Ranking is immaterial. My application of the process above would put the Cardinals’ supplemental picks like the following. This assumes all players decline arbitration and do not re-sign with their current team, so this order may not be final.

• Holliday pick: #4 in the comp round, 36th overall
• DeRosa/Pineiro pick: #19 (first Type B pass), 51st overall
• Pineiro/DeRosa pick: #24 (last comp player – second Type B pass), 56th overall

Between DeRosa and Pineiro, I am still not sure which pick is labeled for which player and how the “tie” is broken, as both are Type B. For this exercise, it doesn’t matter. (Update: If I understand the system correctly, the first B comp pick will be for DeRosa (70.33) and the second for Pineiro (67.302) due to their relative Elias scores.)

The above spots had to be adjusted for three unsigned players from the 2009 draft, two in the first round and one in the comp round. The latter falls after Holliday’s comp pick and prior to the first DeRosa/Pineiro selection.

Bottom line, the Cardinals currently have (subject to change due to caveats noted above) at least four picks in the first 56 selections in the 2010 draft and potentially five, if another top 15 club (based on 2009 wins) signs Holliday. Current course and speed, they will have six in the first 83, including their own second-rounder. (Note there are two other clubs with second-round comp picks ahead of the Cardinals.)

The location of the other Holliday pick remains the major open question. Because Holliday is a Type A free agent, the signing team actually forfeits their first -or second-round pick and St. Louis receives it. This is in addition to the comp selection discussed above. It can be anywhere from the last half of the first round to the end of the first half of the second round.

For the 2010 draft, it should be between #17 and #31 overall or between #57 and #71 overall. The former is more likely since that is tied to a winning 2009 team signing Holliday such as the Red Sox (pick #29) or the Yankees (pick #31). Obviously, if Holliday instead re-signs with the Cardinals, they would not receive any compensatory selections since in that case, they would not have lost him.

December 7 update: Because three MLB players accepted arbitration, the DeRosa and Pineiro comp picks each move up three places from the places listed above.

While the analysis showed the take in terms of results from the players selected with the extra picks were uneven and perhaps less than from the club’s regular selections in the same rounds, there is no dispute having more top players offers greater trading flexibility.

This article will look at compensation picks for which the Cardinals were eligible since 2005 and the ones they actually received, good for use in the following June’s First-Year Player Draft.

Some background first. Here we are discussing veteran (six or more years of MLB service time) free agents for whom a club has the right to offer arbitration on a one-year contract. The player has the right to accept or decline that offer.

A very high percentage of the time when offered, it is declined. Yet if offered, there is always the chance the player could accept. That would tie player and team together for another season at market price.

If the team declines to offer, then the player can sign anywhere without penalty. If the club offers and a player in the top 40 percent of his peers declines, the organization is entitled to draft pick compensation if that player agrees to terms with another team.

This latter case is our focus. Though I am not going to get into the details here, based on their performance, all players are ranked yearly into either the top 20 percent (Type A), second 20 percent (Type B) or the rest (no compensation).

The former club of a Type A free agent that was offered arbitration but declined receives two compensatory picks in the upcoming June draft when the player signs with a new team. One pick is an extra pick, called a “sandwich pick” added to the end of the first round and prior to the second, a period called the supplemental round. The other pick is taken from the new team and given to the old team, usually their first- or second-rounder.

A Type B player offered arbitration would fetch a sandwich pick only, meaning there is no real penalty to the signing team for having added the free agent.

There is another wrinkle. If an arbitration-eligible player signs with a new team before the December due date for the old team to offer arbitration, the old team receives the appropriate picks just as if they had offered the player later on.

(To be more complete, another way to secure an extra pick is in compensation for an unsigned player from the first three rounds of the previous draft. That case does not apply here.)

Ok, without further ado, here are the 17 Cardinals Type A (two picks in compensation) and Type B (one pick) free agents from the last four off-seasons.

FA	Draft	Player	Potential	Picks gained	Picks gained
			picks lost	signed early	offered arbitration
2008	2009	Russ Springer	2
		Jason Isringhausen	1
		Braden Looper	1
2007	2008	David Eckstein	1
		Troy Percival		1
2006	2007	Jeff Suppan			2
		Ronnie Belliard	2
		Jeff Weaver	1
		Jason Marquis	1
		Preston Wilson	1
2005	2006	Matt Morris			2
		Abraham Nunez		1
		Mark Grudzielanek	2
		Al Reyes	2
		Julian Tavarez	2
		Reggie Sanders	1
		John Mabry	1
		Four-year total	18	2	4

The 17 players represent a maximum of 24 possible draft picks. Only six of those compensatory picks, or one-fourth of them, were actually received by the Cardinals, having been collected from four of the 17 players. The Cards declined to offer arbitration to the other 13.

Even if the Cardinals had wanted to capture the maximum number of picks possible, some of the players might have accepted their offer and remained with the team. In that case, the club would not have received compensatory selections for those players and potentially been stuck with players they did not want.

In several other cases, however, the Cardinals left almost sure picks on the table by not offering arbitration for a player obviously leaving. This is consistent with the organization’s stated philosophy of not offering players unless they were wanted to return.

A prime example was former starting pitcher Jason Marquis. There seemed no way Marquis would have accepted an arbitration offer to return to the Cardinals for 2007 after the problems that culminated in him being left off the 2006 playoff rosters. The sandwich pick the Cardinals would have received had they offered and Marquis not accepted would have been a “free” one, not taken away from the signing team (the Cubs, who signed him for three years, $21 million).

In other cases, the Cardinals may have avoided offering a marginal Type A player because it would have diminished his value in the open market. A possible example is Ronnie Belliard. After having joined the Cardinals late in the 2006 season, the second baseman was declared a Type A. Few if any clubs would have forfeited their first or second-round pick in the 2007 draft just to sign a role player like Belliard.

Finally, there were a few players the Cardinals probably should have offered in the hope the player would accept and remain with the club. A glaring example is right-handed reliever Russ Springer (pictured). Despite having been very effective out of the pen during the prior two seasons, Springer was told prior to 2009 that the Cardinals wanted to get younger. 12 months later, one of the team’s reported priorities is to acquire – you guessed it – another veteran righty for the pen.

In two of the four cases in which they received comp picks, the Cardinals had no control over receiving those selections. Both Al Reyes (2005) and Troy Percival (2007) signed with their new clubs early. That gave the Cardinals two picks, whether they wanted them or not.

We know for sure only that the Cardinals wanted two of the 17 to come back, Matt Morris (2005) and Jeff Suppan (2006). In other words, they were the only two actually offered arbitration and each declined. When the two signed with San Francisco and Milwaukee respectively, St. Louis was awarded a total of four picks.

The Elias Rankings which define the Type status of all players, including free agents, are traditionally released near the end of the World Series. At that point, we will know what compensation, if any, the Cardinals’ nine 2009-2010 free agents may fetch – but only if they sign elsewhere early or arbitration is offered, that is.

The 30-year-old Ludwick was last of five eligible Cardinals players with from just under three to five-plus years of service time to settle, and in the process of doing so, avoided a salary arbitration hearing set for Tuesday in Phoenix, AZ. Outfielders Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan plus pitchers Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer all previously agreed to terms.

Ludwick’s new deal is for a reported $3.7 million, slightly above the midpoint between the Cardinals’ original offer of $2.8 million and the player’s $4.25 million filing. Ludwick can earn up to an additional $100,000 in incentives based on plate appearances. He can receive $25,000 at 625, another $25,000 at 650 and another $50,000 if he reaches 675.

Making just $421,000 last season, Ludwick’s increase represents a 779% bump over that 2008 take, by far the largest absolute as well as percentage increase among the five.

This was Ludwick’s first year through the process leading up to arbitration and unless he signs a long-term contract first, he could be in a similar place in each of the next two off-seasons. Ludwick will become eligible for free agency for the first time after the 2011 campaign.

The Cardinals avoid hearings if at all possible and have been pretty good at it recently. Their last salary arbitration hearing was held in 1999.

With that, following is a summary of how the Cardinals 2009 arbitration-eligible cases came out. For all intents and purposes, the players always win. The only real suspense is the amounts of their increases.

Only two players, Ankiel and Ludwick, progressed as far as exchanging figures with the club and having hearings scheduled. Wellemeyer and Duncan came to terms on January 19 and Thompson settled the very next day. Just three hours prior to his scheduled hearing last Thursday, Ankiel and the Cardinals also shook hands on a 2009 contract.

In total, the Cardinals will be paying $12,050,000 for the service of these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest contracts.

	2008	2009 estimate	Player	Club	2009 actual	Increase %
Ankiel	$0.975 million	$3.25 million	$3.3 million	$2.35 million	$2.825 million	190%
Duncan	$0.439 million	$1.5 million			$0.825 million	188%
Ludwick	$0.421 million	$4.0 million	$4.25 million	$2.8 million	$3.700 million+	779%
Thompson	$0.414 million	$1.0 million			$0.650 million	57%
Wellemeyer	$1.2 million	$4.0 million			$4.050 million	338%
Total	$3.449 million	$13.75 million			$12.050 million
+ $100K incentives

Any debate over 2009 contracts for members of the Cardinals roster is now officially over. The only other players still unsigned are those with less than three years service time as major leaguers.

That group is obligated to accept whatever amount they are tendered by the club as long as the “offer” exceeds the minimum salary of $400,000 and is at least 80% of the amount earned in the previous season. The players choice is either to accept or not play, yet if they stick around, they too will become eligible for arbitration soon enough.

Look for those business-as-usual announcements early next month.

I thought it would be interesting to look at the club’s arbitration record since the process began. While most who watch this area may be familiar with the fact that the club last went to hearing in 1999, when they defeated pitcher Darren Oliver and his agent Scott Boras, the Cardinals’ history in arbitration goes back much farther.

Fortunately, the late Doug Pappas, long-time chairman of SABR’s Business of Baseball Committee, kept detailed hearing records all the way back to 1974. The basics of what follows is sourced from his work.

Since the process began, there have been almost 500 arbitration hearings across MLB. Of course, many more players filed, but came to terms prior to the actual date. As one of 30 clubs now (though there were fewer teams back in 1974) one might expect the Cardinals to have had no more than about 3% of the cases. That is the approximate actual number, 15. The club’s record against players is very close to the overall MLB historical mark, around 60%.

Through 2008	Hearings	Club win	Player win	% club win
MLB	484	279	205	58%
Cardinals	15	9	6	60%
StL percent of MLB	3.1%	3.2%	2.9%

However, most of these Cardinals cases were held during the 1980s, nine of the 15 to be precise. Five more followed in the 1990s, but four of them occurred prior to 1995. Since then, there has been just one, Oliver.

Cardinals cases	Hearings	Club win	Player win	% club win
1970′s	1	0	1	0%
1980′s	9	6	3	67%
1990′s	5	3	2	60%
2000′s	0	0	0	NA

Gregg Jefferies: Last to beat the Cards in arbitration (Getty Images/Stephen Dunn)

Ironically, the busiest year for the club was at the end of the boom. In 1994, three players went to arbitration, with the club going 2-1. They lost to first baseman Gregg Jefferies (pictured) and defeated starter Bob Tewksbury and third baseman Todd Zeile. As a result, Jefferies holds the distinction of having been the last player to defeat the Cardinals in a hearing.

And here we sit today, with two players heading toward a showdown with the club over their 2009 salary amounts. The Cardinals could double their total number of hearings in the last 15 years over the span of just six days later this month.

Below are the detailed hearing results, offering a most interesting view of how salaries have risen over the years.

As you will see, some of the most prominent stars of the club during the 1980s and early 1990’s participated in the process – Ozzie Smith, Danny Cox, Jose Oquendo, Vince Coleman and Terry Pendleton among them.

Having just returned to the Cards from the Mets in the Joe Torre trade, pitcher Ray Sadecki was the first-ever case for the club back in 1975. On one hand, the difference between the two sides was just $5,000. On the other hand, it was about 10% of the player’s salary – an amount worth fighting for. The left-hander was traded to Atlanta just three months after winning his case.

In the table, I added to Pappas’ base data the date when each player last suited up for the Cardinals and how he left. There were rumors that some owners did not take kindly to players fighting them over salary. If only the arbitration process had existed in 1972, another lefty, Steve Carlton, might have become a Hall of Famer as a Cardinal instead of as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

I include that information not because there is any proven correlation between an arbitration case and the player leaving St. Louis.

Yet do pay special attention to the timing of trade activity, especially in the early years of arbitration. Four of the first five players that took the Cardinals to arbitration didn’t even last through that season before having to pack their bags. Later, the players exerted their financial independence via free agency.

Even as trade rumors swirled around both Ludwick and Ankiel this winter, this data is offered as an interesting conversation piece about which to speculate over what might have been.

Year		Player*	Club*	Club win	Player win	% club win	Left StL	Reason
1975	Ray Sadecki	52	47		X		May-75	traded
1980	Will McEnaney	125	65	X			Mar-80	released
1981	Tony Scott	225	180		X		Jun-81	traded
1982	Ozzie Smith	750	450	X			Sep-96	retired
1983	Doug Bair	450	325		X		Jun-83	traded
1983	Lonnie Smith	580	500	X			May-85	traded
1986	Ricky Horton	275	215		X		Feb-88	traded
1987	Danny Cox	875	600	X			Oct-90	free agent
1988	Jose Oquendo	360	275	X			Sep-95	retired
1989	Vince Coleman	950	775	X			Nov-90	free agent
1990	Terry Pendleton	1850	1000		X		Nov-90	free agent
1994	Gregg Jefferies	4600	3700		X		Oct-94	free agent
1994	Bob Tewksbury	4500	3500	X			Oct-94	free agent
1994	Todd Zeile	3250	2700	X			Jun-95	traded
1999	Darren Oliver	4150	3550	X			Oct-99	free agent
total				9	6	60%
2009	Rick Ankiel	3300	2350
2009	Ryan Ludwick	4250	2800
	* amounts in $K

A brief summary of Tuesday’s news:

Ludwick: $4.25 million, Cardinals: $2.8 million (midpoint: $3.525 million)
My earlier estimate: $4 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD

Ankiel: $3.3 million, Cardinals: $2.35 million (midpoint: $2.825 million)
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD

Please click on the highlighted link to head over to the January 6 post entitled “What might Ludwick, Ankiel, Wellemeyer, Thompson and Duncan make via arbitration?” to read much more on the subject and comment there to keep the related discussion in one place. As always, your perspectives are encouraged.

In the arbitration process, the next steps are as follows:

• Each player may continue to negotiate with the club if both sides so choose.

• A hearing date for sometime during the first three weeks in February will be scheduled.

• If there is no resolution prior to that date, both sides will present their case to a three-person team of arbiters.

• The panel will select one amount or the other for a one-year contract – the amount the player submitted on Tuesday or the club’s amount – with no compromise allowed.

I was correct on six of the eight, but missed on Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, both of whom were non-tendered by the organization. Randy Flores was also cut loose as expected. Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs last week while Johnson and Flores are free agents.

What’s up now?

For the five Cardinals players remaining, the next window of opportunity began on Monday, January 5. Starting then, these eligible players have ten days to declare their intent to head toward arbitration.

While you may read a lot of hoopla about this filing period, it is merely a formality. All eligible players will certainly file, since in not doing so, they would foolishly give up their arbitration right. (Of course, they could agree to terms on a new contract at any time, which would also take them out of this process.)

What’s on deck?

The next milestone is far more important, as those players who choose to prepare for the possibility of a hearing must exchange 2009 salary figures with their clubs on Monday, January 19.

The player offers his figure, which is almost always highest, and the club presents their amount, the lower of the two. Between then and the actual time of their February arbitration hearing, the two are encouraged to negotiate an agreed-to amount, almost always somewhere in the middle.

In every case, the player will receive a raise. The only question is how much. An important consideration is what other players of comparable results and experience have received in the past. More on that shortly.

In some situations, the sides come to agreement on a multi-year deal instead, but the formal arbitration process is structured around a one-year contract only.

An example of the former is Yadier Molina, who was arbitration-eligible one year ago. Instead of going through the entire process, on January 21st, he and the Cardinals settled on a four-year contract with a fifth option year.

If the two parties can’t come to terms, a three-person arbitration panel will choose one of the two amounts submitted, with no compromise. Supporting arguments are offered by both sides at these hearings, scheduled between February 1 and 21.

Remember that only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, last season, just eight of 110 players who filed went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time.

Forecasting the 2009 Cardinals

So with that backdrop, let’s estimate the potential 2009 value of these five eligible players: Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.

In every case, I will compare the Cardinals’ statistics to players at the same position who had roughly the same service time one year ago. That allows me to use the latter’s 2008 salaries to help estimate what the Cardinals’ 2009 amounts might be.

Remember that I am estimating where the two sides might settle, with the club’s filing potentially lower and the player’s desired amount likely higher. Performance bonuses are included in the Cardinals’ 2008 salaries shown below and could be a contract component for any players that settle prior to arbitration.

When service time is noted, it is listed in “years.days”, where 172 days equals one full season.


Chris Duncan

Though the oft-injured outfielder hasn’t been productive since the early part of 2007, I am comparing his career stats with five other players who were “Super Twos” one year ago. As in the case of all these comparisons, the other players’ numbers listed are their career totals prior to 2008. In other words, their stats at the time they were in the same position as Duncan is now.

Four of the comps are outfielders while the fifth, Casey Kotchman, is a first baseman, a position Duncan also plays at times.

Duncan has demonstrated more power than all the comps, with Jonny Gomes perhaps closest. Yet the Tampa Bay outfielder is a part-timer. The two from the group that were more established starters coming into 2008 were Mark Teahen of the Royals and Ryan Church, then of the Nationals and now of the Mets.

Those two were also the only ones of the five comps who progressed in the arbitration process last year as far as exchanging amounts with their clubs, listed on the far right of the following table. They ended up with salaries in the low $2 millions, while the three others settled for less than $1.5 million last winter.

Because of his injuries and the resulting uncertainty, I would place Duncan’s 2009 value somewhere around $1.5 million.


Ryan Ludwick

The 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner only has two comparable outfielders from last year with between three and four years service. Therefore, I added a third player, Xavier Nady, who had just over four years coming into last season.

Toronto’s Alex Rios is more of a multi-tools guy with a longer track record than Ludwick. Nady is less productive than the Cardinal. Probably the best comp is Colorado’s Brad Hawpe, with a little better batting average and on-base percentage, but a bit less power.

Last year, Hawpe asked for $4.35 million heading into arbitration while the Rockies countered with $3.58 million. The two sides settled on $3.925 million. Hawpe has just one top 25 MVP placement and no All-Star or Silver Slugger-type recognition but has been more consistent over time.

Given that, somewhere around $4 million would seem a good place for Ludwick.


Rick Ankiel

As was the case last year, the uniqueness of Ankiel’s career progression means there are no rock-solid comps for him. Still, there were two MLB-5 outfielders last winter, or three if you count Casey Blake, who is primarily a third baseman but also has played the outfield extensively. For illustration, I added a fourth outfielder, Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer, who was at that time just a couple of weeks short of five years of service.

To be fair to Ankiel, I included his hitting stats only from his time as an outfielder, excluding those from his days as a pitcher. The Cardinal’s slugging is superior to the others, while his average and on-base marks are credible in comparison to them.

In terms of counting stats in a single season, the story is different however. Two of the five have hit as many as 25 home runs as Ankiel did in 2008. That was Craig Monroe’s 28 in 2006 and Blake also with 28 back in 2004. Compared to Ankiel’s 71 RBI last season, Juan Rivera has topped him once, Monroe and Cuddyer twice each and Blake three times.

Ankiel should be able to argue that with more at-bats, he could eclipse the counting stats generated by either Blake or Cuddyer. But that is future potential, not what has been accomplished to date.

While a look forward isn’t fair for this exercise, it is worth looking into Rivera’s situation in a bit more depth. After not quite reaching 300 at-bats in total over the past two seasons due to injury, as a free agent, he recently scored a three-year, $12.75 deal to return to the Angels. Rivera’s 2009 salary will be $3.25 million.

Monroe is currently a free agent and will make considerably less in 2009 than his $3.83 million last season, as his career is on a downward spiral.

For 2009, one might conclude that Ankiel could make as much as Rivera or Monroe, but having not completed more than a full season as an MLB outfielder, not as much as the far more established Cuddyer or Blake. Let’s call it no higher than $3.25 million, since Ankiel’s career number of at-bats remain considerably less than the others.

Of all the estimates, this could be the most volatile. Remember that Ryan Howard made $10 million as a Super Two last year after winning a hearing in which the Phillies had offered $7 million. Is Ankiel worth less than half of that?


Brad Thompson

When choosing comps for the right-handed swingman, I had 25 relievers who were MLB-3’s last year to choose from. I selected the seven who had progressed far enough in the arbitration process to exchange figures with their clubs.

It seems pretty clear that a player like Thompson should expect to make around a million dollars plus or minus. Brad’s ERA tends to the high side and his strikeouts are low, so despite his stingy walk rate, I would aim for an even $1.0 million.

Todd Wellemeyer

Again, this one is a bit tricky since Wellemeyer has over three years as a reliever and less than two as a starter. Given his current role is that of a starter one year from free agency, I used that population. Unfortunately, there was but one MLB-5 starting pitching comp from last season, now-free agent Oliver Perez. I added the three MLB-4 starters from last off-season to fill out the analysis.

Perez is one of the eight players across MLB that actually made it to his hearing, where he defeated his employers at the time, the Mets, to the tune of $6.5 million. Yet it could be argued that Perez is more accomplished than Wellemeyer.

Of the three career starters with one fewer year of total experience, Detroit’s Nate Robertson scored a three-year deal with a $4.25 million salary the first season, while a pair of Brewers, Claudio Vargas and injured Chris Capuano, each ended up with under $4 million.

Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.


Summary

Here are the projected differences in salaries from year-to-year for these five. Who said arbitration isn’t expensive?

If these estimates are anywhere near correct, the Cardinals could end up committing an incremental amount of over $10 million in 2009 just to keep these five players wearing the Birds on the Bat this coming season. On the average, their raises would be just under 300%.


Several tips of the cap are offered. One is to arbitration expert Bill Gilbert, who has provided valuable consulting assistance on the process. Another is to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the source for partial career data, as well as answers to a million other questions, too. Finally, a nod to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, always an invaluable resource.

In recent days, two of the most talked about subjects surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals have been the cases of free agent closer Brian Fuentes and starting pitcher Braden Looper – one potentially coming into town with the other likely leaving.

In what follows, I will explain how these two seemingly-isolated cases are anything but.

Aftershocks of the decision to not offer Looper arbitration include either the Cardinals not signing any Type A free agents such as Fuentes or gutting the early part of their 2009 draft. There is also a significant financial ramification that may or may not impact the organization’s Latin American program.

Looper and Fuentes

Losing Looper

Though the Looper decision was not assumed prior to the December 1 deadline, many observers, including me, expected the Cards would offer him. Yet, Looper was probably pleased to be cut loose. Seeing Kyle Lohse snare a four-year deal worth $41 million likely helped Braden realize some time ago that his chance to score a similar multi-year contract would not be with St. Louis.

Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and now Lohse have long-term contracts, with Todd Wellemeyer coming up for consideration in 12 months. That is potentially too many starters tied up for too long, leaving Looper on the outside looking in.

Despite concerns about the economic downturn everywhere, Looper seemed assured of getting a better deal somewhere other than a one-year, arbitration-driven deal with the Cardinals. As a result, it was generally expected that the shaky closer-turned solid starter would have turned down the opportunity for a one-year deal with the Cards via arbitration.

The Cardinals didn’t care about expectations. They were apparently worried that Looper might accept despite the seemingly low risk of its occurrence. Therefore, they took the only route to absolutely assure that wouldn’t happen – they cut their formal ties with the pitcher.

With no guarantee that injured ace Carpenter will be ready to go to start next season and how many innings they will get from him, the Cardinals seem to be in the market for some insurance for their starting rotation. Their top five are currently Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro.

If the organization does want that insurance, it seemingly won’t be delivered via Looper, unless the two sides come back around to each other later in the off-season.

Extra pick lost

Though I believe the Cardinals were unnecessarily cautious in this situation, I am frankly less concerned about keeping Looper than I am about the downstream ramifications of the decision.

As a Type B free agent, had Looper been offered but not accepted, the Cardinals would have received a compensatory draft pick commonly called a “sandwich” pick that can be used between the first and second rounds of the June, 2009 draft.

Since the Cardinals did not make that offer to Looper (or Jason Isringhausen or Russ Springer), they were not awarded that selection.

A change in plans?

From an organization that has highly-prioritized the long-term mission of building their farm system, bypassing the likely compensatory pick for Looper seems a surprisingly counter-strategic decision.

If fact, 2009 will be the first time since 2004, before Jeff Luhnow assumed the role of farm director for the Cardinals, that they will have no extra picks coming into the draft.

Perhaps anticipating this kind of move, not ninety days ago, I asked Luhnow if the Cardinals could ever have too many compensatory picks.

“No, absolutely not. Those picks are valuable and you just have to figure out how to turn those assets into something that you need. I am speaking as the scouting director now, but even speaking with my global hat on, we like those draft picks and will take as many as we can get,” Luhnow declared.

Fear of being locked into arbitration with their compensation-eligible free agents clearly altered the organization’s intent this year.

Yet, the Cardinals are not unique. Along with St. Louis, at least ten other clubs, perhaps concerned about the economy, excluded all their six-year-plus veteran free agents from arbitration offers.

No sandwiches would leave system hungrier

To provide a reminder of the quality of players that have joined the Cardinals as supplemental picks, I offer their most recent sandwich round selections, with the bonus amounts awarded each:

2008: Lance Lynn - $938,000

2007: Clayton Mortensen – $650,000

2006: Chris Perez – $800,000

2005: Mark McCormick – $800,000 and Tyler Herron – $650,000

All in all, would the Cards rather have these players than not? It would certainly seem like it.

Though the jury is still out on the 2005 and 2008 sandwich players, the major league club already began reaping the benefits of Perez less than two years after he was pitching in the College World Series. Mortensen is also on the fact track to the big leagues, starting in Triple-A before he had even one full year of professional experience.

A misdirection play being run?

As they pump more money into their growing Latin American operations, could the Cardinals be changing their strategy by passing up comp picks, while routing more money away from the June draft in the process?

Think of it this way. Had the Cardinals landed 16-year-old Venezuelan centerfielder Yorman Rodriguez in August instead of former GM Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds, by my calculations, the Cards would have spent more 2008 bonus money overseas than they did in the regular First-Year Player Draft. The Reds reportedly dished out $2.7 million to Rodriguez, a record for a Venezuelan-born player.

Furthermore, consider the Cardinals’ top 2008 international signing, Roberto De La Cruz. The third baseman received more in bonus than any other Cards player taken in this June’s First-Year Player Draft not named Brett Wallace, a polished college hitter five years older than he. In fact, the Dominican Republic native fetched the same bonus as the number 29 pick in the first round!

Since at least 2005 and probably much longer, only Wallace and Pete Kozma (2007) received more in bonus from the club than did De La Cruz. Among the recent first-rounders who brought home less than the third baseman are Adam Ottavino (2006) and Colby Rasmus (2005).

That is uncharted territory for an organization that didn’t even have an international presence outside of the Dominican Republic just a few short years ago.

Increasing confidence in growing overseas budget

I asked the Vice President of Amateur Scouting and Player Development about the significance of the escalation of the Cardinals’ international spending on players and whether my estimate of their shifting balance toward a majority spent in Latin America and a minority in the US is accurate.

“Correct. There are a couple of clubs teetering on that edge and a couple that have already gone over (spending more outside the US). We wouldn’t be afraid to do that.

“I think Mr. DeWitt and Mo now have the confidence that we have the right scouting resources in place and the right infrastructure in place that it makes sense to deploy the bonus dollars there and wait for the return. It is a bit more of a long term investment, so you have to look at the whole portfolio,” Luhnow explained.

Type A free agent signing carries big downside

The final ramification of not having that supplemental selection is that the Cardinals may be more reluctant to sign Fuentes or any other of one of the top free agents, called Type A, this despite the club needing help at several positions at the major league level.

Examples of Type A players offered arbitration that might previously have been on the Cardinals shopping list include:

Infielders Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera

Left-handed relievers Fuentes and Darren Oliver (AA*)

Starting pitchers A.J. Burnett (SS**), Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez

Outfielders Raul Ibanez (SS**) and Milton Bradley

* arbitration offered

** signed since

(The above list excludes high-end Type A’s that were in the same situation but likely priced outside the Cardinals budget, players such as C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez. (Yeah, I heard the rumors about an offer to K-Rod, but I don’t believe them.)

The Looper situation indirectly suggested that the remainng Type A players have an uphill chance of becoming Cardinals in 2009. Either the players accepted the offer of arbitration, as did Oliver, taking them off the market by tying them to their old clubs, or if they declined, compensation from the signing organization will be required. As an aside, of the 25 players offered this year, only Oliver and Cincinnati’s David Weathers accepted.

If the Cardinals do go ahead and sign any Type A, it would seem their plan to focus on improving the farm system via the First-Year Player Draft would be taking a one-year hiatus as a result.

Again, here’s why. If a Type A signing is made, the Cardinals would forfeit their first round pick for next June.

Is signing a Type A worse than not?

We’ve already seen why the Cards will have no supplemental pick in 2009. Add to that the potential loss of their first-rounder in this scenario and the chances of the organization nabbing an impact player in the 2009 draft will be greatly diminished.

Though the specifics of the supplemental round are not yet defined, I currently estimate the Cardinals’ second-round pick should be somewhere between 65th and 70th. That would be their very first selection in the 2009 draft in this case.

Not pretty, nor is it a normal situation for the Cardinals.

In fact, the last year the Cards went into a June draft without either a first-rounder or a supplemental first-round pick was way back in 2002. That was due to the club having signed Type A free agents Isringhausen and Tino Martinez during the previous off-season.

The 2002 scenario could repeat this year if the Cards signed two Type As such as Fuentes and Perez. Losing both their first and second-round picks would ensue.

Rewriting history isn’t pretty

In a world where the Cards would have no first or sandwich round picks, their top selections in recent drafts would have been the following players. They represent the organization’s initial second-round picks in these years:

2008: Shane Peterson

2007: David Kopp

2006: Brad Furnish

2005: Josh Wilson (retired)

Nothing against any of these young men, but would anyone feel as good as they do about the much-ballyhooed improvement in the Cardinals system had these players been the organization’s highest picks in the last four drafts?

Methinks not.

Money potentially saved

If one subscribes to this action being a part of an expense-adjustment strategy on the part of the Cardinals, consider this. The organization could avoid spending as much as $2 million next June just by not having to bonus both a first-round and a sandwich pick.

Another potential factor is sheer roster space to put all their players. While the Cardinals’ system is the youngest of the 30 organizations in aggregate, it is reaching its capacity, says Luhnow.

With fewer minor league free agents and better quality players, it is becoming more difficult to determine who should be pruned from the system. As a result, fewer can enter.

Here is Luhnow’s recent observation.

“I look at next year’s draft and look at all the players in our system and I am not sure we are going to need to sign as many as we did this year. I said that this year, too, so we will have to see,” the farm director explained.

There are several potential ways to achieve financial benefits. For example, they could shave off the high-end picks as discussed here, they could draft more players with signability issues, and/or they could refuse to pay over slot value for any draftees.

In conclusion

The Cardinals’ decision to not offer Braden Looper arbitration either eliminates their signing of a Type A free agent or dooms them to waiting and waiting to make their first 2009 draft selection until the 65-70 range.

There is a possibility that the club could divert unspent bonus money into their Latin American signing budget, but that is not assured.

The two had lost precious ground in their attempts to seize the two left-handed spots in the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen and as a result, were among three players non-tendered by the club at Friday’s midnight EST deadline. Infielder Aaron Miles was the other.

There were two other important reasons for these players being cut loose. One is money and the other is roster spots. These players three could have each earned several million via arbitration while there are replacements coming up behind them still making only six figures.

Two lefties gone

Flores, 33, had his time in the St. Louis spotlight, playing a headline role while pitching in 185 games for the Cards from 2005 through 2007, but began to decline in the second half of 2007.

Last season, his fifth in the organization, was a complete washout between injury and ineffectiveness. Flores passed through waivers unclaimed last summer on his way to a demotion to Memphis.

Despite over three years of major league service time, the injury-prone Johnson has only pitched in 77 big-league games. Once a top organizational prospect, the 27-year-old was selected by the Oakland A’s in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft, but was returned to St. Louis during spring training.

Since, he has been slowed by a myriad of arm problems. Johnson’s St. Louis highlight may have been his team-leading ten appearances and four holds during the magical 2006 post-season.

Left-handed relief alternatives aplenty

In recent weeks, the Cardinals have added a host of others from the left side. They include Charlie Manning via waivers from Washington, the former free agent from Tampa Bay, Trever Miller, and minor leaguer Ian Ostlund, also invited to major league camp.

The Cards have stated they are still in search of another lefty, with former Colorado closer Brian Fuentes a prime target. All will compete for likely two roster spots at the major league level this coming spring.

Miles also gone (again)

Of the three non-tenders, Miles was perhaps the biggest surprise, but perhaps not.

The switch-hitting infielder, who will turn 32 on Monday, was in the same situation one year ago and was also non-tendered by the Cardinals. That way, the team could avoid the arbitration process with Miles, where the club could end up being forced to overpay to keep him. Surprisingly, the two sides reunited in January when Miles was given $1.4 million to return to St. Louis for 2008.

After a solid year backing up the middle infield and even getting starts in the outfield, I thought Miles would be asked back in 2009. Perhaps that could still happen, but not via the arbitration process.

Nick Punto: Over $4M per year

Market realities

Though I had projected that the Cardinals would tender Miles a contract, I second guessed myself as recently as Friday. That is when the Minnesota Twins re-signed their utility infielder Nick Punto to an eye-opening two-year, $8.5 million deal.

The 30-year-old Punto, playing a comparable role to Miles for the Twins, has a career line of .252/.319/.332 over the equivalent of roughly five MLB seasons. Miles’ line is .289/.329/.364 over his time with the White Sox, Colorado and the Cardinals.

So, if Punto can fetch $4.25 million per year on a two-year deal, isn’t Miles worth at least $5 million? Considering that view of the current market, I can see why the Cardinals took the cautious route here.

Miles is a handy player to have around, but not at that kind of price.

Infield alternatives

While they may still go outside for a Miles replacement if he does not return, the Cardinals do have alternatives. Several younger, cheaper and less-experienced in-house players already on the 40-man roster include Brendan Ryan, Brian Barden and Tyler Greene.

Ryan has the most time in the majors of the three but lacks consistency. That translates into less confidence shown by the coaching staff. The 26-year-old has no minor league options remaining, which means he has to either make the big league club in the spring or pass through waivers before heading back to Triple-A.

The Olympian Barden was originally claimed off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks late in the 2007 season. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals can decide about the 27-year-old. Last spring, they took him off the 40-man, when he went unclaimed, then later re-added him. Barden has yet to impress in two end-of-season call-ups. Despite a decent season in Memphis, Barden received a grand total of nine September at-bats with St. Louis in 2008. Not inspiring.

Greene, taken just two picks after top organizational prospect Colby Rasmus in 2005, has long been touted for his potential, but had yet to deliver until 2008. The shortstop had a decent season between Springfield and Memphis and for the first time as a professional, was moved all around the infield during his stint in the Arizona Fall League where he looked fine defensively. That tryout was surely not coincidental.

Second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir also still sits on the 40-man roster, likely on the strength of a .407 OBP put up in 2007 between Springfield and Memphis. His 2008 mark was a more realistic .352, but any future shot at St. Louis seems unclear.

What’s next?

All three non-tendered players, Flores, Johnson and Miles, are officially free agents, available to sign with any team with no penalties or restrictions, including the Cardinals – if both sides are willing.

As expected, five other Cardinals were tendered offers for 2009 by the deadline, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson. These players are bound to the Cards for next season, with the amounts of their salaries still to be negotiated over the next two months.

With these moves, the Cardinals 40-man roster is currently at 34 players. This gives the organization plenty of flexibility to make other moves as the 2008-2009 hot stove season continues.