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My (Pretend) St. Louis Cardinals Prop Bets for 2016

Last week, the folks at www.Bovada.lv issued a series of prop bets for players on every Major League Baseball team based on the oddsmakers’ view of their full-season performance ahead.

The bet is very simple. Do you believe the player will come in under or over the number quoted during the 2016 regular season?

There are 22 possible bets presented for the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals – 11 each for hitting and pitching. Four hitting and four pitching categories are touched upon, with Matt Carpenter being the only player with four props. Several players have just one each.

All 22 are listed below, organized by stat category.

For my own amusement, I went through each, deciding my own personal over/under view. To the right, I summarize my logic.


Over/Under

Cardinals player
BA BW pick Logic
Matt Carpenter 0.285 under Batted exactly .272 last two seasons.
Matt Holliday 0.275 over Last .300 season was 2013, but if healthy, he can do it.
Yadier Molina 0.290 way under Hasn’t hit above .282 since 2013 and had 2 thumb surgeries.
Stephen Piscotty 0.285 under Some sophomore slump is quite possible.
Kolten Wong 0.270 under Hasn’t hit above .262 yet in MLB though a Gyorko platoon could help.

HR BW pick Logic
Matt Carpenter 21 1/2 under Two best career HR seasons before last year totaled just 19.
Brandon Moss 23 1/2 way under Not assured of enough at-bats.
Randal Grichuk 24 1/2 over 17 in 350 ABs last year but like Piscotty, correction may be ahead.

RBI BW pick Logic
Matt Carpenter 75 1/2 over Has driven in 78 or more in two of last three years.
Randal Grichuk 70 1/2 over Goes with the over bet on home runs.

Runs BW pick Logic
Matt Carpenter 100 1/2 under Really close. Averaged exactly 100 runs over last two years.

Wins BW pick Logic
Adam Wainwright 14 way over If health remains, 17 or more is likely.
Carlos Martinez 14 over Extent of his young talent is underestimated. I like 16.
Michael Wacha 14 under Include me among those worried.
Mike Leake 12 way over Lance Lynn averaged 15 over last four years. So can Leake.
Jaime Garcia 10 over The talent is there. This is a pure injury/health bet.

ERA BW pick Logic
Adam Wainwright 2.99 under Last season with more than 3.00 ERA was 2012.
Carlos Martinez 3.25 under FIP last season was 3.21. He can be better.
Michael Wacha 3.25 over FIP last season was 3.87. He could be closer to that in 2016.

Strikeouts BW pick Logic
Adam Wainwright 160 1/2 over Should pass this mark with a 200-inning season.
Carlos Martinez 180 1/2 over Better than 1K/inning is a bet he can throw at least 180 innings.

Saves BW pick Logic
Trevor Rosenthal 42 1/2 over Averaged 46 1/2 last two years, so 43 seems reasonable.

In total, I have 12 overs and 10 unders. With further analysis, more of the unders are related to the offense and more of the overs are related to the pitching. Not surprising, really.

My four favorite bets, two unders and two overs, two hitting and two pitching, are identified by my use of the word “way”.

Especially coming off two surgeries this winter, I cannot see Yadier Molina returning to his .300-hitting days of his 20’s. I also cannot envision Brandon Moss swatting 24 or more home runs. I would be all over both of those bets.

On the other side of the coin, though the win stat can be especially arbitrary, a healthy Adam Wainwright is surely going to win at least 15 games. Same with Mike Leake logging at least 13 victories. I like a number of the pitching props, with these two the best of the best.

You can put it in the bank – virtually, that is!

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Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation Blog, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.
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14 Responses to “My (Pretend) St. Louis Cardinals Prop Bets for 2016”

  1. JumboShrimp says:

    Agree with most over/unders. What are differences?
    Carpenter can be under on average and under on home runs, but is less likely to be both. So I would bet he will go over on batting average.
    Piscotty is a pretty good hitter, so I would take an over on batting average.
    Wong is able to average above .270. He will do it in future, so why not start in 2016?
    Wainwright is coming back from injury and older. I would take an under on wins.
    He has never been a high k rate pitcher, so I would under on strikeouts.
    Saves hinge on wins. Plus Mike abuses rosennthal. So I would bet under on saves.

  2. JumboShrimp says:

    Who will have the higher OPS at seasons end?

    Our Hazelbaker, now at 1600?

    Or super rich Jason Heyward, down around 400?

  3. JumboShrimp says:

    Given how injury prone some of our guys are, Jeremys roster spot is secure.
    Mike can enjoy watching Hazelbaker all season.

  4. CariocaCardinal says:

    Nice piece Brian. Admire it when people are willing to go out on a limb with predictions.

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