Last week, the folks at www.Bovada.lv issued a series of prop bets for players on every Major League Baseball team based on the oddsmakers’ view of their full-season performance ahead.
There are 22 possible bets presented for the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals – 11 each for hitting and pitching. Four hitting and four pitching categories are touched upon, with Matt Carpenter being the only player with four props. Several players have just one each.
All 22 are listed below, organized by stat category.
For my own amusement, I went through each, deciding my own personal over/under view. To the right, I summarize my logic.
|Matt Carpenter||0.285||under||Batted exactly .272 last two seasons.|
|Matt Holliday||0.275||over||Last .300 season was 2013, but if healthy, he can do it.|
|Yadier Molina||0.290||way under||Hasn’t hit above .282 since 2013 and had 2 thumb surgeries.|
|Stephen Piscotty||0.285||under||Some sophomore slump is quite possible.|
|Kolten Wong||0.270||under||Hasn’t hit above .262 yet in MLB though a Gyorko platoon could help.|
|Matt Carpenter||21 1/2||under||Two best career HR seasons before last year totaled just 19.|
|Brandon Moss||23 1/2||way under||Not assured of enough at-bats.|
|Randal Grichuk||24 1/2||over||17 in 350 ABs last year but like Piscotty, correction may be ahead.|
|Matt Carpenter||75 1/2||over||Has driven in 78 or more in two of last three years.|
|Randal Grichuk||70 1/2||over||Goes with the over bet on home runs.|
|Matt Carpenter||100 1/2||under||Really close. Averaged exactly 100 runs over last two years.|
|Adam Wainwright||14||way over||If health remains, 17 or more is likely.|
|Carlos Martinez||14||over||Extent of his young talent is underestimated. I like 16.|
|Michael Wacha||14||under||Include me among those worried.|
|Mike Leake||12||way over||Lance Lynn averaged 15 over last four years. So can Leake.|
|Jaime Garcia||10||over||The talent is there. This is a pure injury/health bet.|
|Adam Wainwright||2.99||under||Last season with more than 3.00 ERA was 2012.|
|Carlos Martinez||3.25||under||FIP last season was 3.21. He can be better.|
|Michael Wacha||3.25||over||FIP last season was 3.87. He could be closer to that in 2016.|
|Adam Wainwright||160 1/2||over||Should pass this mark with a 200-inning season.|
|Carlos Martinez||180 1/2||over||Better than 1K/inning is a bet he can throw at least 180 innings.|
|Trevor Rosenthal||42 1/2||over||Averaged 46 1/2 last two years, so 43 seems reasonable.|
In total, I have 12 overs and 10 unders. With further analysis, more of the unders are related to the offense and more of the overs are related to the pitching. Not surprising, really.
My four favorite bets, two unders and two overs, two hitting and two pitching, are identified by my use of the word “way”.
Especially coming off two surgeries this winter, I cannot see Yadier Molina returning to his .300-hitting days of his 20’s. I also cannot envision Brandon Moss swatting 24 or more home runs. I would be all over both of those bets.
On the other side of the coin, though the win stat can be especially arbitrary, a healthy Adam Wainwright is surely going to win at least 15 games. Same with Mike Leake logging at least 13 victories. I like a number of the pitching props, with these two the best of the best.
You can put it in the bank – virtually, that is!
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