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Odds Have Cardinals Back on Top of Cubs

Oddsmaker is back with new odds on the 2015 World Series, reflecting bettors’ actions heading out of the hot stove league and into the first week of spring training action.

In the National League Central, the big news is that a little of the bloom is off the ascension of the Chicago Cubs, who were the division favorite back in December. Chicago stormed from back in the pack at 50/1 at the end of the season to 12/1 then and are at 14/1 now.

The St. Louis Cardinals returned to the division’s top spot and to their odds from October, back at 12/1 from 14/1 late in 2014. They are fourth overall and third in the National League.

The tie between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals at the top has been broken with the Nats the new betting favorite at 7/1.  The Boston Red Sox remain at the top of the AL, sliding a bit from 9/1 to 10/1 to win the World Series. The current champion San Francisco Giants are among four clubs, including the Cubs, at 14/1.

The other three clubs in the National League Central – the Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds – remain in the bottom half of the 30 teams. The Bucs improved slightly since last time, while the Brewers and Reds especially, are skidding in the wrong direction – unless you like long odds, that is.

Red indicates longer odds while green denotes shorter odds compared to last time. NL Central clubs in bold.

Odds to win 2015 World Series as of 10/30/14 12/15/14 3/4/15
Washington Nationals 10/1 15/2 7/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 15/2 15/2 17/2
Boston Red Sox 22/1 9/1 10/1
St. Louis Cardinals 12/1 14/1 12/1
Chicago Cubs 50/1 12/1 14/1
Los Angeles Angels 10/1 12/1 14/1
San Diego Padres 66/1 40/1 14/1
San Francisco Giants 12/1 14/1 14/1
Chicago White Sox 40/1 28/1 16/1
Detroit Tigers 10/1 12/1 16/1
Seattle Mariners 18/1 14/1 16/1
Cleveland Indians 25/1 33/1 20/1
Toronto Blue Jays 33/1 18/1 25/1
Kansas City Royals 16/1 20/1 28/1
New York Mets 40/1 25/1 28/1
Oakland Athletics 20/1 40/1 28/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 20/1 33/1 28/1
Baltimore Orioles 20/1 18/1 33/1
Miami Marlins 50/1 33/1 33/1
New York Yankees 22/1 25/1 33/1
Houston Astros 100/1 150/1 50/1
Milwaukee Brewers 40/1 40/1 50/1
Texas Rangers 33/1 40/1 50/1
Atlanta Braves 22/1 28/1 66/1
Cincinnati Reds 33/1 40/1 66/1
Tampa Bay Rays 33/1 66/1 66/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 100/1 75/1 100/1
Minnesota Twins 100/1 150/1 100/1
Colorado Rockies 100/1 100/1 150/1
Philadelphia Phillies 75/1 150/1 150/1

Following are League title odds as well as the six division chases. St. Louis is at 6/1 to reach the World Series.

Odds to win AL Championship 3/4/15
Odds to win NL Championship 3/4/15
Boston Red Sox 11/2 Washington Nationals 3/1
Los Angeles Angels 6/1 Los Angeles Dodgers 9/2
Seattle Mariners 7/1 St. Louis Cardinals 6/1
Chicago White Sox 15/2 Chicago Cubs 15/2
Detroit Tigers 8/1 San Diego Padres 15/2
Cleveland Indians 9/1 San Francisco Giants 8/1
Toronto Blue Jays 10/1 New York Mets 14/1
Oakland Athletics 12/1 Pittsburgh Pirates 14/1
Baltimore Orioles 14/1 Miami Marlins 16/1
Kansas City Royals 14/1 Atlanta Braves 28/1
New York Yankees 14/1 Cincinnati Reds 28/1
Texas Rangers 22/1 Milwaukee Brewers 33/1
Houston Astros 28/1 Arizona Diamondbacks 50/1
Tampa Bay Rays 28/1 Colorado Rockies 75/1
Minnesota Twins 50/1 Philadelphia Phillies 75/1

The Cardinals are 5/4 favorites to take the Central. With the Braves rebuilding, the Nationals would appear by the odds to have the smoothest sailing of any club to win its division.

Odds to Win AL East 3/4/15
Odds to Win AL Central 3/4/15
Odds to Win AL West 3/4/15
Boston Red Sox 2/1 Chicago White Sox 9/4 Los Angeles Angels 8/5
Baltimore Orioles 7/2 Detroit Tigers 9/4 Seattle Mariners 8/5
Toronto Blue Jays 11/4 Kansas City Royals 9/2 Oakland Athletics 9/2
New York Yankees 9/2 Cleveland Indians 11/5 Texas Rangers 7/1
Tampa Bay Rays 7/1 Minnesota Twins 18/1 Houston Astros 16/1
Odds to Win NL East 3/4/15
Odds to Win NL Central 3/4/15
Odds to Win NL West 3/4/15
Washington Nationals 1/3 St. Louis Cardinals 5/4 Los Angeles Dodgers 1/2
New York Mets 5/1 Chicago Cubs 5/2 San Diego Padres 7/2
Miami Marlins 6/1 Pittsburgh Pirates 11/4 San Francisco Giants 7/2
Atlanta Braves 16/1 Cincinnati Reds 12/1 Arizona Diamondbacks 33/1
Philadelphia Phillies 50/1 Milwaukee Brewers 12/1 Colorado Rockies 50/1

As the season continues, the 2015 odds will shift and shift again. I will present periodic updates as warranted.

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Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation Blog, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.
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16 Responses to “Odds Have Cardinals Back on Top of Cubs”

  1. Nutlaw says:

    “Oh wait a minute. These are the Cubs we’re talking about here,” must have been the thinking by everyone, everywhere.

  2. crdswmn says:

    Interesting article about the use of analytics in sports. The Cardinals are one of the “all-ins” in MLB. Not surprisingly, the Phillies are “non-believers”.

  3. blingboy says:

    I have heard from a friend who was at the Cards game today. He said he was pretty much right behind home plate. Said Garcia’s arm was incredibly live. Tons of movement, nothing straight, nothing flat. He said it was clear Jaime was having issues controlling it, like the amount of movement he was getting took him by surprise. He also said that situation was consistent throughout Garcia’s 40 pitch outing.

  4. Brian Walton says:

    Interesting article/study which shows that spring training results do have predictive value in some cases.

    • crdswmn says:

      Well, sure, if you are a math nerd and you care about marginalities. The average fan can’t make those distinctions (even the above average fan in many cases). In the broader sense, the sense in which most people live, they are pretty insignificant. I wouldn’t wager on any of them.

      Shane Robinson might find this article beneficial to him though. 😉

      • Brian Walton says:

        Strikeout rates and walk rates are not above most people’s understanding. I will say that fantasy players are more interested than the average fan in predictive values.

        • crdswmn says:

          Strikeout and walk tendencies for established players tend to remain fairly constant for the most part anyway. So saying K and BB rates in ST correlate with the regular season is not a news flash. Most people don’t compartmentalize like that for the average player. Most fans are not going to bat an eye if Matt Carpenter walks a lot in Spring Training, but if he hits a buck fifty, that gets their attention and wailing and gnashing of teeth starts. That’s when the calmer ones start rolling their eyes and tell them to chill. Yeah, the folks at places like VEB get down to the minutae, but they are nerds and not the ones the admonition to not get worked up about ST numbers is addressed to.

          • crdswmn says:

            And so I read the comments and see that Mitchel Lichtman commented (I assume that it is him, since he signed MGL and the author seemed to know him). He rightly pointed out that credible sabermetricians don’t say ST numbers are worthless, just that they are not very useful (which is true). They have worth in a small number of cases where there is little player history and the projections have more meaning for that player. Projections are not something the average fan readily understands. So I maintain that for 99% of players, ST numbers have little predictive value. For the 1% where they do, the meaning is probably lost on most fans.

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