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Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Waino’s Big Year Slipping Away

Defending National League champion manager Mike Matheny gave the starting nod in the 2014 MLB All-Star Game to his ace, Adam Wainwright. That evening did not go to Waino’s liking, nor have his results since.

Prior to the break, the 32-year-old right-hander was 12-4 with a 1.83 ERA over 19 starts. Since then, in three starts, Wainwright is 1-2, 5.82. His strikeouts are down and his walks are way up.

In the meantime, Wainwright’s key rival, Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers continues to steam ahead. As the Cardinals’ star’s ERA rose to 2.26, the Dodger dropped his to 1.71. Kershaw has also increased his season win total to equal Wainwright at 13, but with four fewer losses.

As a result, ESPN’s Cy Young Award Predictor now has Kershaw firmly in the lead for the top pitching honor in the league. Wainwright has slipped all the way to third, just behind Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto.

The oddsmakers agree.

In new Cy Young Awards odds released Tuesday by bovada.lv, Kershaw has replaced Wainwright as the clear favorite with Cueto pulling even with Wainwright. A number of others have fallen away with one longer-shot joining since May, the Giants’ Madison Bumgarner.

Odds to Win the 2014 NL Cy Young May 1 Aug 5
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 6/1 2/7
Adam Wainwright (STL) 7/2 5/1
Johnny Cueto (CIN) 15/2 5/1
Zack Greinke (LAD) 15/2 25/1
Madison Bumgarner (SF) NR 50/1
Jose Fernandez (MIA) 6/1 inj
Julio Teheran (ATL) 12/1
Kyle Lohse (MIL) 15/1
Tim Hudson (SF) 15/1
Ervin Santana (ATL) 15/1
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) 20/1
Gio Gonzalez (WAS) 20/1
Cliff Lee (PHI) 20/1
Lance Lynn (STL) 20/1
Michael Wacha (STL) 20/1
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) 25/1
Dan Haren (LAD) 33/1
Alfredo Simon (CIN) 33/1
Aaron Harang (ATL) 40/1

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16 Responses to “Waino’s Big Year Slipping Away”

  1. Bw52 says:

    Wainwright could throw a couple of no-hitters and posterboy Kershaw would still win.Wainwright had a slim chance and that is gone now.Kershaw is pitching better and he`s currently the big flavor going now.He`s a lefty pitching in a media center and he`s a young kid who could get better.Wainwright is the star veteran in a smaller market who doesn`t toot his own horn and mostly goes out and does a solid workmanlike job without any flash or hoopla.

    • Brian Walton says:

      I disagree. When he was pitching better than Kershaw, Wainwright had a very good chance of winning.

      Kershaw was the deserving winner last season over Wainwright. Market size should not be a factor. These awards are selected by vote of two baseball writers from each NL city.

      My biggest worry about Wainwright and this award is the reality that he is not going to pitch at this level forever. He turns 33 later this month. Kershaw is just 26.

      • Bw52 says:

        I don`t give the writers as much credit as you do.How many voting writers really take the time to really see what happened during a game AW pitched or Kershaw pitched.Its human nature to remember what you hear the most.If you hear Kershaw,Kershaw,Kershaw.etc;.How many people remember who finished 2nd to Kershaw last year?

        • Brian Walton says:

          That supports my point. Even if the voters do not see the pitchers often, they will almost always consult the numbers. Hence my point that when Wainwright had the best stats in the first half, he was favored to win.

          • crdswmn says:

            I thought Kershaw deserved to win last year, and he will likely deserve to win this year.

            Having said that, I am not buying what you are selling. I listened to days of MLB Network radio talk about the HOF vote, where BBWAA writer after writer talked about how they voted and what influenced their vote, and time after time each one mentioned what team, what market, what teammates each one had, and other non “numbers” factors that influenced their vote. They freely admitted not necessarily seeing each candidate play a lot, and that numbers were not the only consideration.

            You will never convince me that if everything about Kershaw and Wainwright were equal, that Kershaw’s star power wouldn’t put him over the top. These are human being voters we are talking about.

            • Brian Walton says:

              Objection, counselor. A key assumption was changed. “If everything about Kershaw and Wainwright were equal” is not the base from which I was working. However, on your point, yes, if everything was equal, Kershaw would likely win – because he is the incumbent.

              As a side point, there are many on the West Coast who feel their candidates for major awards are disadvantaged by their time zone as Eastern voters see their teams play less often – as Midwesterners feel disadvantaged because of small markets, not being on coasts, etc.

              Also be aware that the Hall of Fame voting is very different from Cy Young, MVP and Rookie of the Year. Hundreds of the long-term tenured vote for the Hall, a number of whom no longer cover the sport. They are comparing careers, often over different eras. The other awards are selected by 30 active writers. two each representing the local team markets, hand-picked each season and focused on that year.

              I am not suggesting any voting process is perfect, but to assume HoF and Cy voting are comparable other than on a very high level is inaccurate.

              • crdswmn says:

                I am not suggesting that the two awards are the same or that criteria for judging them are the same. I am suggesting that the human beings that vote on the awards are the same. Human beings come with biases, of which some will admit, others will not. These biases influence their voting.

                There is some overlap in the human beings who vote on these awards, the awards not being the same notwithstanding. The human being that is influenced by non numbers factors in one vote for Award A will have a higher probability of being influenced by non numbers factors in another vote for Award B.

                The basis of yours to which I was responding is the one where you suggest that writers will look at numbers and not be influenced by team, or market size. I disagree with that. Yes, some of them will.

                In legal parlance, we call that “assessing your jury demographic”.

  2. Bw52 says:

    James Ramsey having a rough time at AAA for the Indians.21 AB 2 Hits 10 Ks .095 BA.

  3. crdswmn says:

    Music video produced by Molina Records

    A few Cardinals are in it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so3_QbXCoJA

  4. Bw52 says:

    Way to hang tough Wainwright.Fighting thru a rough inning to limit the damage.King Kong Kolten with 2 HRs.Matheny not throwing Rosey into the game.Overall a nice win.

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