The Cardinal Nation blog

Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Cardinals open at 10/1 odds to win 2014 World Series

The folks at Bovada, (www.Bovada.lv, Twitter: @BovadaLV) aren’t wasting any time moving their thoughts ahead to 2014. Opening odds for next year’s World Series by the 30 MLB teams follow.

As noted, the champion Boston Red Sox and National League pennant-winning St. Louis Cardinals are not the favorites – even to win their own leagues. That early honors go to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers – the two losing teams in the 2013 Championship Series.

Not surprisingly, the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros are the early doormat selections, or on the positive side, would pay out the most if they actually win it all next season.

Odds to win the 2014 World Series

Team As of 10/31/13
Los Angeles Dodgers 7/1
Detroit Tigers 9/1
Boston Red Sox 10/1
St. Louis Cardinals 10/1
Washington Nationals 10/1
Los Angeles Angels 14/1
Atlanta Braves 16/1
Cincinnati Reds 16/1
New York Yankees 16/1
Oakland Athletics 16/1
Tampa Bay Rays 16/1
Texas Rangers 16/1
San Francisco Giants 18/1
Cleveland Indians 20/1
Baltimore Orioles 25/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 25/1
Toronto Blue Jays 25/1
Kansas City Royals 33/1
Philadelphia Phillies 33/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 40/1
Chicago White Sox 50/1
Milwaukee Brewers 50/1
Seattle Mariners 50/1
Chicago Cubs 66/1
Colorado Rockies 66/1
San Diego Padres 66/1
Minnesota Twins 75/1
New York Mets 75/1
Miami Marlins 200/1
Houston Astros 250/1

Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.

57 Responses to “Cardinals open at 10/1 odds to win 2014 World Series”

  1. JumboShrimp says:

    Time to think about what needs to be done for next year.
    We have enough pitchers so few comments about them. IMO, we should retain Axford, because his salary is pretty reasonable for his ability. Jaime Garcia may return from shoulder surgery and be suited to the pen in a gradual build-back.
    The big issues are four positions. Beltran has in many ways been our best hitter the past two years, leading in HRs. Carlos probably deserves to play in the AL, so he can sometimes DH. So our biggest, most reliable bat is headed out the door. What to do about RF? We have to hope Allen Craig’s foot injury heals well that he can take over there. Craig is a very good hitter for average and in the clutch, though not quite the slugger.
    If Craig moves to right, this opens up 1B for Adams. Adams had a fine September and disappointing October. He may have been slowed by bone spurs. We hope Adams can get right, eat healthier, and get in condition to man up for a full season in 2014.

    The next issue is 3B. Freese had fine 2011 and 2012, but significantly fell off as a hitter in 2013. He may have a health issue that has not been revealed, like a sore shoulder. Mo will have to decide if Freese can rebound, or whether he is on the downhill slide. If we are not optimistic, Matt Carpenter could shift to 3B, leaving 2B to Descalso and Wong. is Wong ready to take over? We would be better served to return to Memphis, collect more at bats, and demonstrate he is ready for the majors. Descalso and Kozma could platoon until Wong is ready.

    After Furcal fell apart in 2012 and fooled our crack medical team into avoiding timely TJ surgery, he was able to goof off for 2013, while DeWitt had to pay him $7MM. Ugh. Pete Kozma did his best at the plate for a rookie. Can Pete improve for average? A bit, but not a lot either. Whereas a light hit SS used to be routine in the industry, its less common today on successful teams. Since we are losing Mr. Reliable Beltran, one way to try to compensate for his real loss is to improve the offensive contribution from the SS position. Mo will probably want to look creatively and comprehensively to acquire a SS who can contribute more with the stick. Last winter, we took a flyer on Ronny Cedeno for depth. Mo is going to have to be bolder for 2014.

    • JumboShrimp says:

      CF Jay has hit poorly during three post seasons, 2011-13. This is not encouraging. As a 4th year player, Jay disappointed this October. We could continue with him for April and May, but will hope Oscar Tavares bounces back from a serious leg injury and ready himself to take over in CF. We can also hope Jay improves as a hitter. Maybe away from the pressure of the playoffs, he can improve. By next October, we need Oscar in CF.

      Holliday, Carpenter, Craig, Molina, and Adams look to be leading hitters for 2014.

  2. Bw52 says:

    Reasonable writeup Jumbo.Since Freese goes the ARB for 2nd time this offseason and will still likely get some sort of salary bump he will have to improve.My opinion is what we saw in 2013 will be the high point.He is declining offensively and defensively.Looks to me like his 2012season was a career year and his norm will be more like 10-12HRs 60 RBIs.Can Cards live with that……………maybe if someone else can pick up his slack.Jon Jay has one good asset (his batting average and that was down in 2013) he`s not a real base stealer and his defense is average at best.Kozma should be a defensive replacement and nothing more.Cards have toupgrade the position.I wonder if Mo will use a young arm to trade for a SS or dangle Matt Adams to Colorado for a Josh Rutledge Many teams need a young arm and several need a 1B.I would hope Adams sticks around and Mo is able to obtain a SS with a couple of guys like Cooney and O`neill .

  3. blingboy says:

    I think Mo will upgrade range in the outfield. He will go all out for a premium center fielder. Then when Taveras is ready he will go to RF and Craig to 1B. So Adams will go. This is key. All of our pitchers suffered from too many balls falling in.

    Freese also will go, with Carp moving to 3B. If Mo doesn’t think Wong is the 2B of the future, he may go after a 2B rather than a shortstop this winter. We can do fine with one #8 hitter, as opposed to having 3 of them like we did this year.

    • Bw52 says:

      Boujos CF from the Angels is on the trade block.He missed time this yesr (HBP ) and he hits RH and has good speed and defense.Angels need pitching period.Maybe Whiting and Salas and Chambers can get Bourjos.

      • Brian Walton says:

        Quite unlikely that any club would take three lesser-knowns for one important player.

        • JumboShrimp says:

          Salas was left off the playoff roster. Its not clear the Cards will retain him. He pitched very well in 2011, less so the past two seasons. He has no trade value right now.
          Chambers is a 3 year veteran of AAA. He is blocked from reaching the majors by Jay. He might be useful to the Angels as a backfill for Bourjos, but Chambers does not have a lot of trade value.
          Whiting is also fringy, good enough to be on the cusp of the majors, but not so towering as sure to get a chance. If the Angels are pitching poor, Whiting might help them.
          But overall I agree with Brian. There is little chance giving multiple fringe players to another team is going to result in one helpful player back.
          Plus we have Shane Robinson already.

        • blingboy says:

          Yes, we are not going to get anything good for a basket of spare parts.

          Most of the trade proposals put forward on comment boards involve the Cards trading multiple lesser guys for one top shelf guy.

          If you want to seriously discuss a trade for Boujos, think about one for one. What do we have that would be approximatly equal value?

          • crdswmn says:

            Depends on whether the Angels want prospects or ML ready players.

          • Bw52 says:

            I would trade Freese for Bourjos and throw in Salas also.

            • JumboShrimp says:

              We may well release Salas, so the Angels can just wait and sign him later.

              • Brian Walton says:

                Why would the Cardinals release Salas? Did they get rid of their team in Memphis?

                • JumboShrimp says:

                  Salas should be eligible for arbitration this winter. If he cant make our team, do we want to pay him $700K to relieve in Memphis? A judgment call has to be made on his ML future. If we think he can help another team, we could keep him, offer arbitration, and carry him until we can trade him. If Salas does not appear to fit into our future, however, maybe its time to say thanks and goodbye. We will find out in due course.

            • crdswmn says:

              The Angels want pitching.

            • blingboy says:

              Why would the Angels want a bottom of the lineup 3rd baseman? No one is going to be calling Mo asking about Freese or Jay. They would need to be moved as complimentary pieces.

              The only position players on the 40 man that might possibly be availible that anyone is going to be calling about are Adams and Wong, and Wong only if he can be had for little. Adams’s holes as a hitter have also been revealed some. The bottom line is that a top shelf player is going to cost one of our top shelf pitchers.

              • crdswmn says:

                Being “available” in the sense that most fans think, that being someone they want to get rid of or are not sold on, is not the criteria that team front offices go by. Most if not all GMs will inquire about players that no fans are thinking about being traded, like Matt Carpenter for instance. I am willing to bet Mo has received and will receive calls about his availability, as well as a few others. Of course the chances Mo will trade Carpenter are practically nil, but that doesn’t stop GMs from asking, especially those that need position players.

                • blingboy says:

                  Agreed. They aren’t calling about Freese though. Or Jay. That was really my point.

                  I think Mo will focus on the CF position, and also how to move Freese. He will look for either a SS or 2B. The idea being we can live with either Kozma or Wong at the bottom of the order, but not both. GMs with a SS will be gunning for Mo, so I wouldn’t be totally stunned if he goes for a 2B instead.

                  • Nutlaw says:

                    With Taveras needing a place to play alongside Craig and Adams and with Wong needing a place to play as well, I’d really be surprised if CF or 2B took precedence over SS unless a position player was traded, and I don’t see that as being overly likely right now.

                    Wong had an .835 OPS in Memphis as a 22 year old. Kozma had a .548 OPS in the majors as a 25 year old. It would do a great disservice to Wong to compare his bat to Kozma’s, even in terms of potential by mid next season.

                    It’s fun to think about how the team will improve, but with the exception of probably losing Beltran’s production, I don’t see how the team doesn’t get better with age as whole even if no changes are made, given how young everyone is. Given that the team was two games away from being World Series champs, they’d have to make a number of Wigginton level moves for me to lose confidence in their chances.

                  • blingboy says:

                    I feel 100% sure that Carp will move to 3B. So there will be a new 2B. If its Wong, I’m fine with that.

                    I also feel 100% sure Jay will not be the starting CF in 2014. So there will be a new CF. If it is Taveres I’m fine with that. My hunch is that Mo wants to upgrade range in the outfield, and would like to get a CF from somewhere so Taveras can play RF.

                    Ellsbury would be ideal because he could lead off and Carp the doubles machine could slide into Beltran’s $2 spot. Sadly, Boras will likely get an absurd contract from somebody not named Mo.

                    • Brian Walton says:

                      Ain’t nuthin’ 100 percent, but I’d agree they are both better than 50 percent.

                    • crdswmn says:

                      I feel sure that if Carp is moved to 3B and Taveras plays CF that I won’t like it, but I will get over it. I also feel sure that if it doesn’t work out, or if someone else does not live up to expectations that fans will be back here next year, calling for more players to be summarily 86ed out the door.

                    • blingboy says:

                      The tone of your comment suggests that you think fans are just beating up on the whipping boy du jour. My strong feeling as to both Freese and Jay is based on facts, which was recently summarized in a P-D article.

                      “Jay ranked 32nd among MLB center fielders with minus 10 runs saved. Freese was a liability, ranking 33rd among MLB third basemen with minus 14 runs saved.”

                      With both players it is a matter of range.

                      As to next year, or any year, I agree that players with poor defensive metrics who fail to compensate with the bat will attract the attention of fans in a negative way.

                    • Brian Walton says:

                      Well said, blingboy. A contending team should strive to get above-average players at every position.

                    • crdswmn says:

                      I agree with that general premise, Brian

                      As to the “tone” of my post, this is what I meant.

                      I do not think that you, bling, made your comments to beat up on the whipping boy du jour. However, my experience with the majority of fans online is that yes, they do enjoy beating up on said whipping boy. There is always at least one every year, and every year the comments get more strident and more ugly. This year said fans had multiple whipping boys and they were in an orgasmic frenzy about it. Since you, bling, are not on Twitter, you have not experienced the more vocal of these types of fans. There is very little that any player needs to do in order to attract the attention of fans in a negative way these days. It is quite amazingly simple to do.

                      As for Mr. Freese, my feeling are these. He had a sub par year this year both at the plate and defensively. But what do we know about the reasons for this subpar performance? Has he started a decline at the age of 30? Perhaps. We do know he suffered a back injury early in the season for which he was out a significant period of time. Did that back injury linger and affect his playing? Again, perhaps. The extent to which said injury may have impacted him will probably never be known because those who know outside of Freese himself, will not reveal said knowledge without Freese’s consent because of privacy concerns. However, the fact remains that until this season Freese was a solid player. Without knowing the reason for Freese’s problems, can it be said that Freese cannot bounce back? So my question is this, should the same standard, one bad year and you need to go, be applied to everyone? If Allen Craig has a bad year, or Matt Carpenter, or any other player without no trade protection, be traded away as a result? What exactly is the criteria for when a player needs to be traded when performance declines? If one year and out is the criteria there is going to be a hellacious amount of roster turnover.

                      Finally, while I do not dispute the facts you cited about Jay and Freese, in the future if you want to persuade me to your side with facts, quoting the PD is not the way to go.

  4. JumboShrimp says:

    Last winter, one of the big adds was Wigginton. Veteran free agents who are truly studly command crazy money because there is so much money sloshing around, within the industry. So its hard to help yourself a lot with a veteran free agent.

    At the same time, recent trades have included Cox for unheralded Mujica and Blazek for Axford. In other words, big trades are not necessarily easy to find. Adding Mujica and Axford were effective, sensible trades.

    The Cards do free up a lot of money this winter, with departures of Chris Carpenter, Furcal, Westbrook, and likely Beltran. That about $40MM.

    Dubious about trading Adams. To be a WS contender, the Cards have to have some HR power. If Adams gets into durable shape, he is the only guy with 30 HR per season potential. Such guys are valuable.

    • JumboShrimp says:

      While Allen Craig had a fine 2013, teams do not usually have 13 home run first basemen. Craig is a terrific hitter, but we need more pop from first base. Adams is our only internal candidate to reach 30 HRs and counterbalance a guy like Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates or David Ortiz of the Sox. It would not be smart to unload Adams.

  5. JumboShrimp says:

    If Carlos leaves via free agency, we will want to find more offense. One way to help the offense would be to acquire a SS who can outhit Super Pete. There may be a lot of focus on SS this offseason.

  6. Bw52 says:

    Keeping Adams would be smart.A lot of speculation about Shelby Miller on the trade block and Lance Lynn also.Both could bring back good returns.Don`t want Cards to trade too much pitching because no sure thing Garcia comes back and is effective although have been reading about Cards have as many as 8 or 9 guys trying for the rotation.I kind of think now Mo will make a low level trade like Cliff Pennington for mid range prospect or 2.

    • JumboShrimp says:

      Chris Carpenter is gone, Westbrook too. They were innings eaters and leaders. Kelly was good down the stretch, but generally does not finish the 6th. Rosenthal and Martinez may not be ready to be ML starters. Garcia probably needs to come back slow.
      Accordingly, Lynn and Miller are needed, since they have the potential to throw more than 180 innings. A strength of the 2013 Birds was pitching. We need to maintain strengths and not trade ourselves down to 4th place. Pitching wins games.
      Having a lot of budget coming available after big contracts end may turn out to be useful in some way or other. Mo and his analysts get paid to figure out Plans A, B, C, D, E, etc. We are not trapped having to after just one SS. We may end up with a SS who is not exciting, but if we do, we are not going to give up valuable prospects for him either. We have to survey the full field of possibilities and look for the most promising and cost effective deals.

  7. crdswmn says:

    If Mo is going after a shortstop to replace Kozma, I hope to hell he gets one that can hit better than Cliff Pennington. I thought the whole idea of getting another shortstop was to get one that could hit, otherwise just keep Kozma.

  8. blingboy says:

    My comment above that Ellsbury would be an ideal fit should not be taken to mean that I think it is likely. Between the absurd contract that Boras will get and loss of a 1st round pick, Mo will be hesitant to say the least.

    One point to be made though, is that it would be a worthwhile excersize to compare the likely cost in payroll and prospects between Ellsbury and Tulo. Not a huge difference, all things considered. So if Tulo can be in the conversation, so can Ellsbury.

  9. Bw52 says:

    With David Freese`s injury concerns due to foot and back problems (back`s are usually a recurring problem ) and being a year older is it unreasonable to expect DF to rebound in 2014? No its not but what kind of rebound? 10-12 HRs and 65-70 RBIs and 120-30 games .270 BA.I think most fans would think that’s reasonable as long as another guy can pick up DF`s slack .Freese`s lack of range and lack of mobility which will only get worse with age and nagging injuries are cause for concern.I have been wavering about wanting Freese back or seeing what a trade for him and some other guys can bring in return or non-tendering him and signing him to a lesser contract.Cards have a problem because of Kolten Wong .I have read from some fans to just play Wong at 2B shift MC to 3B and go with it.Wong brings something this team needs SPEED.You just don`t give up on one of your top prospects after 60 ABs.Wong has nothing to prove in AAA.So my opinion right now is to start Wong at 2B move MCarp to 3B and non-tender Freese and sign him to a cheaper deal and use off the bench.Thats my opinion.
    What do I think the Cards will do? I think Freese gets a small raise in ARB and gets one more chance to be productive in 2014.Since the Cards have no ready AAA 3B besides Jermane Curtis ( who saw some time in the OF ) I hope the Cards sign a veteran AAA FA for AAA and give him a Spring training invite and a chance to earn a bench bat spot.I want a better option for the Cards to call up for backup in case of injuries.

    • crdswmn says:

      Let me ask you this BW. Allen Craig has similar injury concerns to Freese. Craig is performing well, but if he were to have a subpar year in his near future, would you have similar thoughts about his future with the club as you do about Freese? Keep in mind that Craig is only a year younger than Freese, and does not have a no trade clause in his contract that I am aware of. I don’t ask this to be argumentative, I am sincerely interested in the thought processes that are behind the feelings about Freese as compared to other players.

      • Bw52 says:

        Craig can play RF-LF-1B.Craig hits.Freese is pretty limited to 3B.Freese can`t run and has limited range at 3B.He has a history of feet and ankle problems.Craig hurt his knee last year and his foot injury was a freak play.Will it have a effect on him in the future?Craig still stays on the field more than Freese and Craig is a better player.IMHO 2012 was Freese`s Brady Anderson Year.I think the best he will do now is 10-12 HRs and 60 plus RBIs.Can the Cards live with that……………….if he provides great defense……………..but he doesn`t do that ……
        I don`t dislike Freese I just see a guy who is limited by lack of speed,declining defensive range and a diminishing offensive threat.

        • crdswmn says:

          Craig can play all of those positions but none of them even with average competency. He is below replacement level in the OF and right at replacement level at 1B according to Fangraphs UZR. Freese was pretty bad this year defensively but was average to slightly above average at 3B in 2011 and 2012. 2013 could be an outlier if he was injured and one more season could show a recovery. Craig will never be any better defensively than he already is. Craig also cannot run any better than Freese. Craig’s knee injury required surgery and his foot injury was a lisfranc which is no small foot injury.

          Craig has no better speed, and is arguably a worse defensive player than Freese if 2013 is indeed an outlier. Craig has the advantage on offense. Therefore, I don’t see the distinction that you do.

          • crdswmn says:

            I forgot to mention that Freese played 138 games in 2013 and Craig played 134, and in 2012 Freese played 144 games to Craig’s 119, so I don’t get where he stays on the field more than Freese

            • Bw52 says:

              Freese was a starter in 2010 he missed over half the season due to ankle,broken toe,injuries.Starter in 2011 broken hand (HBP)missed almost 2 months,starter 2012 made thru season.2013 startermissed 2 weeks back problem

              Craig part-timer 2011 missed 2weeks groin injury
              Starter 2012 knee surgery offseason missed 30 games knee and hamstring
              starter 2013 missed final 3 week season.2 weeks playoffs Foot injury.
              Craig never missed 80 games of the season

          • Nutlaw says:

            Freese frequently took a seat to (true second baseman) Descalso for defensive purposes at third, so that alone tells me plenty. Craig has a career .850 OPS. Freese has a career .783 OPS.

            Freese can handle 1B, certainly. It wouldn’t be crazy for him to be a backup corner infielder on the team by any means if they felt the need to shift Carpenter to third. Maybe platoon Freese with Wong at some point?

  10. blingboy says:

    My 2014 dream team lineup.

    Ellsbury CF
    Carpenter 3B
    Tulowitski SS
    Craig 1B
    Holliday LF
    Taveras RF
    Molina C
    Wong 2B
    Pitcher

    • crdswmn says:

      I would not sign Ellsbury because he is going to get a QO from Boston and we would lose a draft pick.

      I would not sign Tulowitski at all unless the Rockies ate the majority of his salary.

      I have already said I prefer to keep Carpenter at 2B.

      The rest of the lineup is fine.

      • blingboy says:

        We would probably get a better pick from losing Beltran than we would lose from getting Ellsbury.

      • Bw52 says:

        Please explain why you think the rest of the lineup is fine?

        • crdswmn says:

          The rest of the lineup after taking out Ellsbury, Tulowitski and keeping Carp at 2B (which necessitates removing Wong), consists of Craig at 1B, Holliday in LF, Taveras in RF and Molina. Do you have some objection to those? I’ve said I would keep Freese another year so he would be at 3B, so CF and SS are up in the air and I don’t have any strong candidates in mind at the moment.

  11. Bw52 says:

    Regarding SS options.Looking at all 32 MLB teams the only teams with SS surplus are these
    1.Texas -Andrus and Profar and top SS system prospect Sardinas in AA
    AZ-Gregorious Owings and Pennington
    Houston- Villar and Elmore and Mervin Gonzalez
    CLEVE- ACabrera and Mike Aviles and Top system prospect Francisco Lindor AA
    Cubs- Starlin Castro and Top system prospect Javier Baez AA
    TB- Yurinesky Escobar and Tim Beckham and Top prospect Hak-Ju Lee AAA (injured most season)
    Angels-Erick Aybar and A Romine and T. Field
    ATl-Simmons and Janish and Pastornicky.

    Other names I read being mentioned
    Alexi Ramirez W Sox-no experienced SS backing him up.

    Jed Lowrie -Oakland – no experienced backup so I doubt he goes unless a starting caliber cheap SS if exchanged,plus he is a FA after this year and he is a hitter playing SS not a SS who can hit.

  12. Bw52 says:

    Cards give Beltran Qualifying offer.So 1st round pick or Beltran?

  13. Bw52 says:

    Agree.I think he`s gone to NYY or Texas.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.