Baseball Prospectus continues to tweak is Major League Baseball predictions/playoff odds report. After the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals opened at 83 wins with 39 percent odds of making the playoffs, they have currently dropped to 82 wins, but still with a 34 percent chance of playing into October.
That seemingly-small adjustment since the first posting has a huge impact. If everything would have ended just as BP initially predicted, the Cards would again squeak into the post-season as the second wild card. Washington, Cincinnati and the Dodgers are picked to win the divisions with San Francisco taking the first wild card. Just missing out would be Atlanta and Arizona.
Since then, the Braves and Diamondbacks have improved their post-season odds to 42.4 percent and 40.1 percent, respectively. That puts both ahead of the Cardinals in the projected pecking order for the second wild card after the Giants, who are narrowly in the lead for the first wild card at 42.6.
The margin is very thin. With just two more projected wins, the 2013 Cardinals would leapfrog all three wild card-contending clubs.
You’ve probably read many versions of predictions by now, but what do you think?
Please vote in the two polls and offer your comments below.
How many regular season games will the 2013 Cardinals win?
- 87-90 (49%, 42 Votes)
- 91-93 (16%, 14 Votes)
- 84-86 (15%, 13 Votes)
- 94 or more (11%, 9 Votes)
- 81-83 (5%, 4 Votes)
- 77 or less (2%, 2 Votes)
- 78-80 (1%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 85
Where will the Cardinals finish the 2013 regular season?
- Win the NL Central (36%, 27 Votes)
- Win the first wild card (28%, 21 Votes)
- Win the second wild card (22%, 16 Votes)
- Miss the playoffs (14%, 10 Votes)
Total Voters: 74