The second half has not begun the way the St. Louis Cardinals would have envisioned. The club lost five of six road contests to National League Central Division rivals Cincinnati and Milwaukee.
During that stretch, the games were close. The Cardinals received good pitching, but the offense often misfired when it mattered most. They had plenty of scoring chances, though. The problem was bringing them home. In 51 at-bats with runners in scoring position, the Cards’ hitters managed only eight hits.
The bottom line for the offense was that they scored just 15 runs in total, plating three or fewer runs in all six contests.
Researcher Tom Orf helps put this current stretch of offensive frustration into context. This is the 22nd time since 1980 that the club has scored no more than three runs in any game over a stretch of at least six games.
The current streak pales in comparison to the longest offensive slowdown by the team during this time. The 1988 Cardinals suffered through a dozen consecutive outings in which they plated three or less.
Two other teams had nine-game stretches. The most recent one parallels this season, as it occurred during the summer of 2007, when the Cardinals were defending their last World Series title prior to 2011.
On one hand, one might not be concerned about all this. The raw frequency indicates that on the average, this happens more years than not (22 times in 33 years). On the other, 2012 marks only the fifth time it has occurred in the last 10 years.
Further, despite all the recent success of the Cardinals, there is very little intersection of playoff baseball with these streaky low-scoring teams. In only two of these years did the Cardinals teams that endured a six-game stretch of low run-scoring go on to make the post-season (see “PS” column at right of table below).
One was back in 1996. Tony La Russa’s first St. Louis club made the playoffs after the organization had endured a decade of falling short.
The other was at the start of the roller-coaster 2011 season – a comeback campaign like no other – one that offers hope no matter how concerning the current situation might appear.
Most consecutive games scoring three or fewer runs, St. Louis Cardinals, 1980-present (listed from most recent)
| Strk Start | End | G | W | L | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SO | BB | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | Opp | PS |
| 7/13/2012 | 7/18/2012+ | 6 | 1 | 5 | 205 | 15 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 49 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0.249 | 0.299 | 0.346 | 0.645 | CIN, MIL | TBD |
| 3/31/2011 | 4/6/2011 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 195 | 15 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0.231 | 0.304 | 0.297 | 0.602 | SDP,PIT | yes |
| 8/29/2010 | 9/4/2010 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 184 | 8 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0.179 | 0.232 | 0.255 | 0.488 | WSN,HOU,CIN | no |
| 4/27/2007 | 5/7/2007 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 282 | 15 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 30 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0.206 | 0.268 | 0.259 | 0.527 | CHC,MIL,HOU,COL | no |
| 8/5/2003 | 8/10/2003 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 172 | 14 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0.198 | 0.274 | 0.314 | 0.588 | FLA,ATL | no |
| 8/23/1996 | 8/28/1996 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 200 | 11 | 39 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0.195 | 0.255 | 0.275 | 0.530 | HOU,FLA | yes |
| 9/22/1995 | 9/29/1995 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 224 | 14 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0.196 | 0.246 | 0.290 | 0.536 | HOU,CHC,PIT | no |
| 6/27/1992 | 7/5/1992 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 305 | 11 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 63 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 0.193 | 0.242 | 0.266 | 0.508 | NYM,PIT,SFG | no |
| 4/9/1992 | 4/14/1992 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 197 | 11 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.325 | 0.603 | NYM,CHC,MON | no |
| 6/2/1991 | 6/10/1991 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 245 | 16 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 0.212 | 0.291 | 0.286 | 0.577 | NYM,LAD,SFG | no |
| 8/31/1990 | 9/5/1990 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 196 | 10 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 0.240 | 0.287 | 0.291 | 0.578 | ATL,NYM,MON | no |
| 7/12/1990 | 7/18/1990 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 227 | 14 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0.225 | 0.298 | 0.295 | 0.593 | SFG,LAD | no |
| 5/1/1990 | 5/7/1990 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 190 | 11 | 38 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.283 | 0.311 | 0.594 | SDP,CIN | no |
| 9/9/1989 | 9/15/1989 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 206 | 9 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 0.194 | 0.239 | 0.243 | 0.481 | CHC,PIT,PHI | no |
| 7/23/1989 | 7/29/1989 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 184 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 0.239 | 0.302 | 0.288 | 0.590 | SDP,CHC,MON | no |
| 9/11/1988 | 9/16/1988 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 189 | 14 | 48 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 0.254 | 0.340 | 0.354 | 0.694 | CHC,MON,PHI | no |
| 7/4/1988 | 7/19/1988 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 380 | 23 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 51 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 0.211 | 0.266 | 0.274 | 0.540 | LAD,SFG,SDP | no |
| 6/10/1986 | 6/15/1986 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 201 | 12 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 0.174 | 0.237 | 0.254 | 0.491 | MON,CHC | no |
| 4/29/1986 | 5/6/1986 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 212 | 10 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0.184 | 0.251 | 0.236 | 0.487 | SFG,SDP,LAD | no |
| 4/18/1984 | 4/24/1984 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 213 | 11 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0.207 | 0.253 | 0.268 | 0.521 | CHC,MON | no |
| 9/16/1983 | 9/20/1983 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 200 | 10 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0.180 | 0.235 | 0.230 | 0.465 | PHI,MON | no |
| 5/10/1980 | 5/17/1980 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 228 | 15 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 0.263 | 0.319 | 0.333 | 0.652 | LAD,SDP,SFG | no |
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“Here’s batting average in Close & Late pressure situations since July 24, 2009.. from top to bottom, with at least 50 ABs:
Matt Holliday .333 (252 ABs)
Rafael Furcal .322 (87 ABs)
Albert Pujols .305 (243 ABs)
Daniel Descalso .298 (114 ABs)
Yadier Molina .286 (276 ABs)
Jon Jay .267 (131 ABs)
Ryan Ludwick .263 (133 ABs)
David Freese .252 (143 ABs)
Lance Berkman .250 (96 ABs)
Carlos Beltran .247 (53 ABs)
Tyler Greene .243 (74 ABs)
Skip Schumaker .233 (227 ABs)
Ryan Theriot .227 (75 ABs)
Nick Stavinoha .220 (50 ABs)
Rick Ankiel .217 (69 ABs)
Felipe Lopez .213 (61 ABs)
Brendan Ryan .209 (134 ABs)
Colby Rasmus .198 (182 ABs)
Allen Craig .186 (97 ABs)
Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-bytes-do-cardinals-need-a-starting-pitcher/article_f930d486-d1b1-11e1-922a-0019bb30f31a.html#ixzz216NxAHEm
Unfortunately I am not surprised to see Allen Craig at the bottom of that list. If there is one knock against Craig, it’s that he doesn’t seem to handle high pressure situations very well. I’ve seen him swing at pitches so far out of the strike zone, you almost have to throw the bat at it to make contact.
However, bling, I don’t think that means what I bet you are thinking
While I don’t have numbers to show, I recall Matt Adams not being particularly good in that regard either.
IMO Bernie’s chart is not relevant to any discussion about the current team. He must be suffering from TLR disease where what guys did years ago matters now. I don’t have any late and close stats, but as an example of what I am talking about, Holliday’s career BA with RISP is .293, but this year is .245. A massive difference. The difference between a #3 hitter and something else, in fact.
Craig, by the way, career .320; 2012 .356. Trending the right way. Adams .318
But I thought it was interesting anyway.
Bernie tends to manipulate stats to make a point. I imagine he went back to 2009 because it gave him the numbers he wanted. Bernie’s issue (which I agree with) was with the idea that Matt Holliday wasn’t “clutch”, which is a ridiculous notion to begin with, “clutch” being a nebulous term which really has no meaning. As you point out, Holliday has a .293 avg with RISP, but as to the current .245 that you cite, that number has less relevance when you are talking about a guy who historically hits better in the second half. Let’s wait and see what that number is in late September, and then we’ll talk.
As to my point about Allen Craig, here is where Bernie and I part company. He downplays hitting with RISP at a certain point in the game, saying that it makes no difference whether you hit with RISP in the early innings when you have a substantial lead as opposed to hitting with RISP in close games in innings 7-9. I think it makes a great deal of difference; the former is not a high pressure situation, the latter is. What I have observed with Allen Craig is that in the close and late situations he tends to take very ugly at bats, often swinging at pitchers way outside the strike zone. Some people were talking on some of the PD sites about that pitch in the dirt that Holliday swung at yesterday, but I have seen Allen Craig swing at pitches much worse than that, and more often in those high pressure situations where the game is on the line. I have also seen David Freese often swing at those type of pitches, but he tends to so throughout the game and not just close and late.
As I said, these are just my observations (with my eyes, which for most people are notoriously incorrect) so I hold my opinion up to scrutiny to anyone who wants to take issue with me.
I have no dog in this fight, but small numbers of ABs always leave hard conclusions open to debate. I do think I know why July 24, 2009 was selected as that was the day Matt Holliday became a Cardinal. I was with the team in Philly then…
Oh I don’t see it as a fight, just a discussion. I am not at all wedded to my opinion on the issue of Allen Craig. The Matt Holliday “clutch” issue I do see as a more important point though.
Yep, I knew it wasn’t a fight. It is just a saying…
Right.
I was just checking the archive for that date and noticed two days later the article was ‘Mediocre Starters Dominating Cards’. Deja vu all over again.
It may be hard for Mo to make any significant deals this July. Many of our prospects are too good to surrender for just two months use of a player.
Eliminating compensatory draft picks for most free agents has softened the mid-season trade market.
Some of the P-D writers are talking up how our pitching is sufficient. This must be our public message to lower the prices of teams willing to trade pitchers. Bernie even even suggests we need a right swinging CF more than a pitcher.
Nah… Clubs would never negotiate through the media…
If a scribe does Mo’s bidding, he or she may get a future inside scoop. When Mo asks for a jump, they only ask: how high?
We can spin it anyway Mo likes it to read it.
The press in North Korea sometimes enjoys more freedom than do Post-Dispatch scribes.
Ha! Sure seems that way at times.
That seems like a silly concept if true. There should actually be just as many players available as teams will no longer want to hold on to players that wont bring them draft picks..
Baseball will still have the same number of players, true.
A non-contending team wants to gain something. They want a player or minor leaguer, or they can just stand pat. An acquisitive team must pay a bribe.
If the acquired player is soon to enter free agency, the bribing team can gain some value back via a draft pick. The reduces the cost of the bribe, helping persuade the acquiring team to pay the bribe.
However, if there is no draft pick, the acquiring team is not going to offer as much and the non-contending team either accepts a lower price or there is no trade because the bribe is too low. The draft picks helped persuade acquiring teams to offer more.
The Cards may try to find a player under contract in 2013, as another way to obtain value beyond this season.
There is a school of thought that the extra wild card in each league significantly increases the number of teams that consider themselves still in it enough to be buyers, or at least not sellers, so there would be fewer players available and more teams wanting them.
Come July 31, we shall find out what happens.
“Remember, it took an impassioned lobbying effort by TLR for the club to move last July. ‘Mo’ has sat at the deadline before.”
Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/round-two/could-cardinals-possibly-be-sellers-at-trade-deadline/article_1456f53c-d294-11e1-b311-001a4bcf6878.html#ixzz21DFdKjbN
Last year was Albert’s last season and DeWitt seemed closely involved.
While TLR was good at identifying guys he wanted, like Furcal, and ones to get rid of like Rasmus, its not clear TLR was a huge asset at trading time. He probably talked too much to the media. As Mo’s guy, Matheny knows to be quieter.
Mo will probably make one trade for a pitcher, but we shall see.
It hadn’t been my thinking that TLR had to prod a reluctant Mo last year. Seeing as that statement came from Strauss, I suppose I could take a page out of crdswmn’s book and blow it off.
What I remember most is TLR ripping Rasmus in a TV interview, thereby devaluing his own team’s player.
Colby had already done a good job of devaluing himself.
Thats when Tony signed with the devil….. BD was rejoicing. ……
Mo had no more to do with that trade than rummaging through the Toronto garage sale box. ………….. that was all Kenny Williams and the Greek ,,,,,,Rhinesdorf pulling the plug on Ozzy while he was still only 4 games back……..9.5 m salary bail by the WS. ………….. Toronto and the Cards just did a marble exchange ……… Cards even made 10 dollars……… every Cardinal reject is long gone……
Fuentes was a Rockie, as was Mo himself, in a suit rather than uniform. Mo was eager to trade for Holliday and Fuentes in July 2008, offering Boggs, Skip, and Ludwick, for Holliday, but was outbid by Billie Beane. Then that winter, the Angels outbid us with cash for Fuentes when he was in free agency.
However this July, we had his former team-mate Holliday and his friend Mo reach out to Fuentes and tell him we want to help him rebuild his career, after the disappointment of being outcast by the As. So it was not just luck that we landed Fuentes, because we had cultivated him previously.
Fuentes may prove helpful, adding an accomplished veteran for the pen.
Schumaker leading off with Furcal batting eighth? Berkman hitting sixth. Beltran in center. Excellent. I approve of riding the hot hand.
But of course Holliday is third. Wouldn’t matter if he was batting .175
Maybe Westy is right about the scribes reading the blog. A day or two after we were discussing weather Mo should change plans about seeking a starter, it shows up. And after Jumbo harps on Jay still hurting, there it is. Right on que.
Somehow, they must have missed the part about Moyer. On vacation probably.
Bernie follows the smart talk here:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/bernie-bytes-what-s-wrong-with-jay/article_cd51fbb6-d27d-11e1-8a4b-0019bb30f31a.html
We hit a lot of solos seems like.
Then we load the bases and strand them all.
That home run of Matt Holliday’s should have had a flight attendant on it.
Why? The cabin was empty.
He hit a 469 ft home run one handed.
Somebody needs a grouch cure.
Wes, we are ahead, you can come back and grin.
My son just gave me a ball he got signed yesterday by Roy Sievers. He was 1949 rookie of the year in the AL playing for the Browns. I already have 1949 NL ROY Don Newcombe. I’ve had that one a long time but didn’t know it untill a couple years ago. It’s on a scorecard signed by Bob Milliken and 3 or 4 other guys including Newcombe.
Nice win. Well played. Who were those guys
4 hits in a row with controlled swings to the opposite field……………… as was planned………the very fact that it was a first time through strategy……..which reverted back to business as usual…….should get some one fired………….. McGwire was sitting there quietly through the first inning……. theres your culprit………
Another fine game by Kyle Lohse, 10-2, leading team in the important metric of eating innings.
Matt Holliday is supposed to be a second half player. If so, he is en route to a big year.
Kyle is playing for a contract, same as in 2008 when he went 15-6.
Now with two good years in a row, he should rake in the cash this winter. From somebody.
This was a big game. …. That lead let him stay aggressive. ……….. he made some great pitches……
he will get three yrs…..36 plus……. when you look at what the market suggests. He could get 3/45 if he wins 17 and stays in the 2′s……….. Cards can’t win this division unless wee get a hitter. Kelly is the real deal……..no way you get a better pitcher than that…………if we gave him a few leads like today…….he would impress…….
Actually Kyle has pitched superbly for the Cards, just set back a couple of years by a freak injury.
Lohse has definitely put up good numbers this year. No doubt about it.
Lohse has started 318 games, nearly 1,900 ML innings. He takes the ball and competes.
When he had problems in 2009-10, this did not owe to elbow tendons or shoulder, but to being hit by a pitch. He must have a good delivery, because he has not had ailments that sideline many others.
There were critics when Mo signed Lohse to a 4 year deal after 2008, but this deal makes Mo look pretty shrewd. If not for being hit while batting, Lohse might have contributed 800+ innings across this contract. Lohse has been steady, like Jeff Suppan was for KC and the Cards.
I doubt many outside observers would consider Lohse’s contract to be good or his GM to have been shrewd for negotiating it.
Mo has made plenty of good decisions. Four years, $41 million with full no-trade protection wasn’t one of them. It is very similar to Suppan’s four-year, $42 million deal received from Milwaukee earlier.
Suppan got a 4 year deal, 2007-10, with the Brewers. This was his second contract after reaching free agency, following a 3 year deal with the Cards, 2004-06. Jeff’s performance worsened across the four years with the Brewcrew, gradually worn down by the great number of innings through his career. IIRC, Suppan was released during 2010. Such is Suppan’s admirable work ethic he continues to pitch, on minor league or low salary contracts.
Unlike Suppan, Lohse has been excellent though the 3rd and 4th years of his contract. Kyle is 10-2, unlikely be released, like Jeff.
No trade provisions are common in long-term contracts. If a team later decides to trade a guy, they have to pay him extra money to waive it. No trade clauses are sought by players, not because they mind being traded, but as leverage to make more money.
Many baseball insiders would say the Cards wanted a steady pitcher, paid the market price for one, and Kyle has earned his keep. All’s well that end’s well, wrote the Bard.
Derrick Goold has tweeted that Mozeliak stated there is no longer a sense of urgency to get a starting pitcher. There have been no recent rumors of any interest in relief pitching either. Maybe Mozeliak has determined to stand pat, unless there is some concern about Jay and the possibility that we may have to look for a CF.
I was afraid Mozeliak’s attempt to fix the bullpen was going to consist of Brian Fuentes and internal fixes like Rosenthal. Lack of compensatory draft picks and a desire to hold on to prospects may keep the Cardinals out of the trade market.
Jake is a good example of how expensive pitching is. He’s been around a while and is a .500 pitcher if there ever was one. 92-92, 4.30. He’s made about $60M so far. That’s about the kind of guy likely to be available at a reasonable price. Mo might just figure he can get .500 from farm hands.
I don’t see much in the way of CFs out there.
Yeah, I’d much rather see the team hold still than force a bad trade.