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Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

How many games will the 2012 Cardinals win?

As players reported to spring training camps, the first betting lines on the number of individual team wins during the 2012 Major League season were released by the Atlantis Casino in Reno, Nev. You can see the full list here, but the National League Central participants opened as follows:

Chicago Cubs    73.5 wins
Cincinnati Reds    86.5 (-120o)
Houston Astros    62.5
Milwaukee Brewers    84.5 – initially 82.5
Pittsburgh Pirates    73.5 (-120u)
St. Louis Cardinals    87.5 (-120u)

Note the change for the Milwaukee Brewers, as Friday’s announcement that Ryan Braun will not be required to serve a suspension to start the season is taken into account. Those 50 games that the Hebrew Hammer will not miss translate into two additional wins for the 2012 Brew Crew, say Atlantis.

The numbers in the parentheses can be interpreted like this. Those wishing to bet on the over for the Reds or the under for the Pirates or Cardinals will have to risk more – $120 – to win $100.

The 87.5 wins for the Cardinals compare to their actual total of 90 victories secured on the field last season. The only other club in the NL Central that would decline year-to-year based on these lines is the other 2011 playoff club, Milwaukee. The Brewers won 96 games on their way to the NLC title.

The flipside of 62.5 wins for Houston would be 99.5 losses. Still, that would be an improvement over their 56-106 record last season. The Reds, Cubs and Pirates would also improve from 2011 if they reach their respective betting lines.

If these were to come to pass, the three 2012 NL division winners would be the Phillies (95.5), the Cardinals and the Giants (87.5). The Braves and Reds at 86.5 each, would be the co-Wild Cards.

Of course, these lines will be adjusted up and down over time as the oddsmakers try to ensure equal betting on the over and under for each team.

What do you think?

Vote below for your view of the number of Cardinals wins this season. (In choosing, consider the number of wins at which you are most comfortable. For example, selecting 87.5 means you would bet on the over at 87 wins and the under at 88 victories.

What would be your line for the 2012 Cardinals?

  • 90.5 (26%, 56 Votes)
  • 92.5 (16%, 33 Votes)
  • 89.5 (10%, 22 Votes)
  • 93.5 (9%, 19 Votes)
  • 95.5 or more (8%, 16 Votes)
  • 91.5 (8%, 16 Votes)
  • 88.5 (5%, 11 Votes)
  • 87.5 (5%, 10 Votes)
  • 86.5 (4%, 8 Votes)
  • 94.5 (3%, 7 Votes)
  • 85.5 (2%, 5 Votes)
  • 80.5 wins or less (below .500) (2%, 5 Votes)
  • 84.5 (0%, 1 Votes)
  • 83.5 (0%, 1 Votes)
  • 82.5 (0%, 1 Votes)
  • 81.5 (0%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 212

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Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation and The Cardinal Nation Blog, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.
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3 Responses to “How many games will the 2012 Cardinals win?”

  1. JumboShrimp says:

    Every team has strengths, weaknesses, and then these be changed by injuries along the way.
    The optimistic case for the Cards includes return of Wainwright; arrival of Beltran; more confidence for Freese, Jay, Craig, Descalso; better middle infield defense; a seasoned rotation; lots of relievers; depth at AAA; Tyler Greene; Westbrook shed weight.
    Vulnerabilities: health of Beltran, Furcal, Freese; can Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia hold up? Which starting pitchers can win a bunch of games?

    The Birds could win a lot of games. They will play the games, for us to find out.

  2. blingboy says:

    I put 95.5 figuring we should be as dominate as the Brewers were last season, they went 96.

    When I got home from work early this morning I saw the photos of Ozzie at camp with Willie and Red. Now those are guys having fun and loving baseball. Brought back good memories.

    I hope we stay healthy and really stomp the opposition this year.

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