In yesterday’s post, we looked at some of the factors surrounding the upcoming free agency of St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. In a poll at the conclusion of the article, I gave readers several voting options to specify what they think the Cardinals should do. Over 80 percent are in favor of the club trying to work out a deal into the fall.
The logical follow-on question to those voters is to ask where they would draw the line in terms of dollars and years. That is the purpose of this post.
Here are a few data points to consider.
Molina currently makes $7 million in the fifth and final year of his contract signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2008 season. He will celebrate his 30th birthday in July.
Minnesota’s Joe Mauer has the largest contract in MLB history for a catcher, eight years, $184 million. It started in 2011, his age 28 year, and pays him an even $23 million per season.
Detroit’s Victor Martinez, who recently suffered a season-ending injury, signed a four-year, $50 million free agent deal one year ago. The average annual value (AAV) of his deal, covering his age 32-35 seasons, works out to $12.5 million, just over half of Mauer’s annual take.
A number of front-line catchers could hit the market next fall, including Russell Martin, Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli. Others with 2013 club options include Brian McCann ($12 million) and Carlos Ruiz ($5 million).
Against that backdrop, what are your limits? Please vote and explain below.
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I dont think one can seperate years and AAV like that. would I go 5 years? not my preference but if he would take 5/40 I’d do it.
My basic starting would be 3/27. Maybe 3/27 + a 4th year option for 9mm as well with a $3 mm buyout – that would be 3/30 gurantee.
Yes, the two are interrelated, but the initial poll would be too complicated unless they are separated for voting. My hope is that people vote for number of years, then assuming that, consider the AAV for those years. If these results are unclear, perhaps we can try a subsequent poll to zero in on the prevailing preference.
I voted 3 years……11-13 million. fyi
Yadi in the last 4 years had a accumulated value of 56.3 million dollars, according to Fangraphs, roughly 14million per season. Even if his WAR dips from last seasons 4.1 to 3.0 as several predict he’s still valued over 10 million. Offering him an AAV of 9 million is rather “silly”
. Seriously, it is insulting, I’d walk if I were Yadi at a 9 AAV offer, with or without a 3mm buyout at the end.
I looked at Albert’s also, his 4 year trend was rather alarming. 40.9M, 40.4M, 30.0M, 22.8M. Based off that, I can see how the Cards wouldn’t go higher than 10/210-220m.
I believe Yadi will not sign an extension at this point. Why would he? He will surely get more on the free agent market than he will in St. Louis. He and Albert were such great friends that Yadi surely feels some angst over Albert’s situation.
The Cardinals offer would be one that surely tried to rely on Yadi wanting to stay in St. Louis…and at this point I don’t believe he wants that.
So I don’t believe the Cardinals will make him an offer that would even cause him to take a second look. They will make a low ball offer and when all is said and done say that thats all they could offer and remain competitive.
Same song…second verse.
Well, he has 2 shakey knees that might provide motivation for him to sign early.
If the Cards are competitive without Pujols, fans will realize that individaul players are expendable.
Individual players matter. However, we can find other individuals, sometimes.
I voted 5 yrs 11-13. That means Arte will have to go 5/75 at least. Probably 6.
One of the inangibles is how things play out in the clubhouse this year. Getting rid of the iconic boss and the alpha male takes the lid off the barrel of monkeys. No way to predict what is going to happen.
Of course, winning will make everything right.
You forgot at least 3 hugs a day, and two random phone calls a day, telling Yadi how important he is. Arte KNOWS how to make a sell.
BB, I made the same guess, but the Cards will be clear minded and maybe they will be 4 or 3 years. Catcher is an injury vulnerable position.
4 years, 11-13. Cards will either offer 3 at a higher AAV, 5 @10.
The other question the FO will have to determine is if there is a replacement in the pipeline or do we have to find an FA if Yadi leaves for greener pastures?
It’s not like the AP situation where we had a replacement (Berkman).
Five years at $11Milion average, even if Yadi is a backup the 4th and 5th year he would be worth it to the team, pitching staff and future catcher.
The most important property of BD is? Mike Matheny ……….. he will be defended at all costs…. and money is no object……..is Molina toxic??????????………they will pay Molina up front……..it is the only surefire containment plan………his agent can’t be that stupid to miss this opportunity……….. he will force them to trade the contract if things go south for Yadi on the field………… I see that as a 9/10 possibility……….. 29/1 in favor of Selig’s extension……… what was SD whining about????????? ya think……….
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/679438-padres-baseball-will-fsn-take-over-broadcasting-rights-of-the-padres
That article is from last April. Here is a link to a much more recent update on the San Diego TV situation.
http://staatalent.com/2011/headlines/padres-radio-tv-deals-taking-time/
you have to love some of the wording there,,,,,,,,,,, and this one…..
.The World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals have a deal that runs from 2008 to 2017 with Fox Sports Midwest. The Cardinals had baseball’s second-highest average television ratings last year, 9.0, and with just six years remaining on their deal the timing would appear to be about right for the team to negotiate a payout triple the $14 million in television fees they got last season.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2011/12/23/baseball-teams-may-seek-new-tv-deals-due-to-spike-in-rights-fees/
Interesting timing in posting that. I have been transcribing comments from BDW III last weekend, including a comment about the television contract. Will be running it for subscribers this coming week….
This is the bottom line………….
Moorad is also waiting for approval from MLB of a new regional sports network contract with FOX Sports that will bring the value of Padres media rights more in line with other comparable size baseball markets. That should be done by the start of the season and won’t be hindered by the ownership delay, Moorad said.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120112&content_id=26329214&vkey=news_sd&c_id=sd
Selig has control of this process………in cahoots with Fox……….they held SD in stasis all the way through the Pujols maneuver………… Bottom line……few owners could pass a close financial inspection…….BD included……….. but they are the faction control the commissioners office, along with its extraordinary powers …………… The rumored offers of a job to Tony were just intend to slow him down,,,,,,,,,, he’s looking for a situation………. Cardinals just want it to be in a timely fashion……
“That should be done by the start of the season and won’t be hindered by the ownership delay, Moorad said. ”
Says he……………… that innuendo is a veiled legal threat……….. his problem…..Fox and MLB have been in court for years on this topic…………. they are the hammer………
yes, Selig and Fox are in cahoots. That’s why he canceled the Fox deal with the Dodgers – so that Fox could pay more in a bidding war auction. That is why he is holding up the SD deal despite the fact that Fox wants the SD rights. Got it.
I doubt that the Cardinals care where, how, or when Tony shows up elsewhere.
These topics are beyond your reach Brazilian……….. there are no question marks in your statement….. I’m going to wait for Brian to explain it to you before I offer any more “complications”.
Nope, just someone is incapable of articulating themselves in a logical manner – or maybe there is just no logic to their ramblings.
3/33mil