There are losses, then there are crushing, painful defeats absorbed on enemy turf as seemingly-winnable games escape your grasp. Making matters even worse is to have to trudge off the field as the opponents’ jubilant on-field celebration occurs in your very midst.
If you perceive the St. Louis Cardinals are losing an uncharacteristically high number of games this season in walk off fashion, you are absolutely correct.
The Cardinals suffered their 10th walk off defeat of the 2011 campaign in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon in an especially sloppily-played game. Making the loss even more painful than the basic fact that the contest was given away was that both a series sweep and a winning road trip were on the line.
(I will not recap the long list of Sunday blunders here, but if interested, you can read the daily – and always free – “Major League Notebook” at The Cardinal Nation. The notebook includes video of manager Tony La Russa and one central figure, catcher Gerald Laird, trying to explain the day’s events.)
I asked researcher Tom Orf to help put those 10 walk off losses into perspective in comparison to the 15 previous years of the La Russa reign in St. Louis.
Tom was able to pull almost all of the appropriate game-by-game data. The numbers below include all walk offs occurring as the result of RBI or errors – the most common drivers by far. #Excluded from the table are the rare cases of such a loss resulting from a passed ball or wild pitch.
My summary:
- The 10 walk offs suffered by the 2011 Cardinals are the most of any St. Louis team in the La Russa era through July 24.
- In fact, if the season ended today, or if the team absorbed no more walk off defeats the rest of the way, the current total would place the 2011 club in a tie for the third-worst walk off loss season of the 16 TLR years.
- Further, if the Cards continue to take these defeats at the current pace established over their first 55 road games, the projected total of 15 at the end of the 2011 season would set a new La Russa era team futility record.
St. Louis Cardinals, number of walk off losses#, through July 24 and full season, 1996-present
| Year | Losses through 7/24 | Season losses |
| 2011 | 10 | 15* |
| 2010 | 7 | 10 |
| 2009 | 5 | 7 |
| 2008 | 9 | 13 |
| 2007 | 2 | 4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 10 |
| 2005 | 2 | 4 |
| 2004 | 3 | 4 |
| 2003 | 7 | 9 |
| 2002 | 3 | 4 |
| 2001 | 3 | 5 |
| 2000 | 1 | 4 |
| 1999 | 6 | 10 |
| 1998 | 8 | 8 |
| 1997 | 6 | 11 |
| 1996 | 6 | 9 |
| * pace |
One can see that in many late seasons, the Cardinals slowed the rate of absorption of these most painful losses. Yet in other years, such as in 2006, more walk off defeats occurred as the schedule drew to its close. The current trend is not positive. As the table below indicates, the Cards have suffered as many walk offs in July, three, as in the months of May and June combined.
There is still time for the organization to make moves in an attempt to stem the tide of these demoralizing defeats, whether it is a shoring up of the relief corps, an improvement of team defense or a combination of the two.
Further, to become a playoff team, the remaining Cardinals need to play better fundamental baseball on a consistent basis and most especially when the game is on the line.
2011 St. Louis Cardinals, walk off losses# by game, through July 24
| Date | Pitcher | Opp | Batter | Score | Play | Inn | RoB | Out | R |
| 4/8/2011 | Brian Tallet | @SFG | Aaron Rowand | tied 4-4 | 1B | b12 | 123 | 2 | 1 |
| 4/9/2011 | Ryan Franklin | @SFG | Miguel Tejada | ahead 2-1 | 2B | b9 | 12- | 2 | 2 |
| 4/17/2011 | Ryan Franklin | @LAD | Matt Kemp | ahead 1-0 | HR | b9 | -2- | 0 | 2 |
| 4/26/2011 | Mitchell Boggs | @HOU | Bill Hall | tied 5-5 | 1B | b9 | 123 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1/2011 | Ryan Franklin | @ATL | Brooks Conrad | tied 5-5 | 1B | b9 | 12- | 1 | 1 |
| 5/13/2011 | Jason Motte | @CIN | Joey Votto | tied 5-5 | 1B | b10 | 12- | 2 | 1 |
| 6/16/2011 | Fernando Salas | @WSN | Danny Espinosa | tied 4-4 | HR | b10 | 12- | 1 | 3 |
| 7/15/2011 | Fernando Salas | @CIN | Brandon Phillips | ahead 5-4 | HR | b9 | 1– | 2 | 2 |
| 7/20/2011 | Fernando Salas | @NYM | Angel Pagan | tied 5-5 | HR | b10 | — | 1 | 1 |
| 7/24/2011 | Jason Motte | @PIT | Chase d’Arnaud | tied 3-3 | SF | b10 | –3 | 1 | 1 |
Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
The two worst, imo, were the April 9 and July 15 losses…victory at hand with the lead and 2 outs. Then, BINGO! Game over; we lose.
But, Mr. Orf, how about the “positive” side of this phenomenon…how many walk-offs and their respective circumstances have we been the victors in? My guess would be not even half the number of our opponents’. I wonder why. Could the quality [sic] of our closers be at issue?
Thank you for this particular blog…I LOVE these kinds of facts. This specific topic is one I’ve been quite curious about for a couple of years, but had just never gotten the precise facts.
friend, thanks for the compliment. In background, I chose the glass half empty view shown here, which is topical based on Sunday’s game. In Tom’s defense, he just provided the data I requested.
The flip side is a fair question, though I see walk off wins more as an indication of clutch hitting than bullpen failure (or defensive lapses). It would depend on whether the game was close all along or the Cards blew a lead only to come back.
Of course, the base populations are mutually exclusive. By definition, walk off losses occur on the road while walk off wins are always at home.
Another good question you raise is the comparative population. I could have chosen other MLB clubs this season to compare StL against rather than stack this year’s team up against past StL teams. Because the quality varies so much across MLB, I often select the TLR years as the yardstick – comparing the various Cardinals teams to each other. Some of the data pulls can be unwieldy if I make the aperture too wide. The totals shown here are almost always backed by a pull of each individual game, then totaled manually.
Still since Franklin is gone i see only ONE Blown Save walkoff by Salas.Good points aabout the game being close or comebacks .
The blown save stat is another to consider. Take yesterday. Lynn took the blown save and IMO deserved it. Motte took the walk off loss though three or four members of his defense were at least as responsible.
I am not sure why any of Salas’ problems prior to Franklin leaving should be considered differently from his problems since. Or maybe I misunderstood the point.
Brian-just pointing that since Franklins early blowups there has only been the one Walkoff Blown Save by the pen.Saying Salas has done a good job overall.Only 3 blown save walkoffs this season and Salas was the victim once.Perhaps i wasn`t exact enough in my point………………Salas has done quite well.
Monday lineup: Theriot, ss; Jay, rf; Pujols, 1b; Holliday, lf; Freese, 3b; Molina, c; Rasmus, cf; Punto, 2b; McClellan, rhp.
Berkman gets a day off against a team he crushes.
I don’t get it Brian……….Berkman needs to be in the game imo. Descalso as well. Ryan and Colby should be sitting today on the dugout railing with a nice cold bottle of water and a bag of davis seeds at their disposal.
We are playing the worst team in the league. Berkman will have three more opportunities to punish his old team and Colby needs to play. Theriot can sit in the dugout though.
Since Houston is pitching Happ it is easy to see why Descalso is playing.
As for Colby…………………..maybe Berkmanns hurting might keep Colby around.
Messed up.With Happ pitching you see why Theriot is playing.Over .300 vs LHP
From what I have heard about the condition of the new sod, having the faster outfielders playing might also prove to be a good idea. It will be very interesting to see how the new field plays. Hopefully it will not be a factor for either team.
BJ Rains tweeted Berkman out with right rotator cuff strain.
BJ’s report is in error. Here is the real scoop.
Berkman has a sore trot muscle in his leg from all the home run trotting he has to do. The only way to stop Lance from clobbering the Astros and thereby aggravating his sore trot muscle is to sit him down.
If the Cards and Sox are talking as seriously as reported by the P-D it would be reasonable for the Sox to have a guy sitting behind the plate hoping to observe Colby. We’ve probably got a guy watching them and their AAA team.
Comcast SportsNet Chicago anchor/reporter Chuck Garfien tweeted earlier today:
“Kenny Williams shoots down the Colby Rasmus rumor. ‘That report is incorrect.’”
As told this afternoon by Comcast SportsNet Chicago anchor/reporter Chuck Garfien (the White Sox version of Pat Parris) on Twitter:
“Kenny Williams shoots down the Colby Rasmus rumor. ‘That report is incorrect.’”
We’ll have to see the exact context to know for sure if it was a blanket denial or clever GM word games.
Great minds think alike.
Chicago Trib’s Mark Gonzales heard Williams’ comment slightly differently. he tweeted this:
KW, on Rasmus report, “that, as reported, is incorrect.”
That’s as close to a confirmation that a player’s name is being discussed as you’ll ever see. He never said the Colby part was incorrect.
Strauss said it so it must be true.
New Redbirds Rant post:
http://redbirdrants.com/2011/07/25/its-defense-stupid/
Crdswmn-IMO fans are down on Colby for poor CF play,A perceived lack of urgency and a general lack of give-a-damn.If Cards can get a cost effective cost controlled return for Colby.trade him.It might work out better for all parties.Just for the record i voted to move Theriot to 2B in your poll.
I agree on the defensive front. Seems that a good defensive hold is more effective than racking up runs late.
My cable is out so I will be watching the game on Gameday. Damn Mediacom, the cable has been out since this morning.
The cable is back on but it has been coming on and going off all day, so I’ll see.
No arch shape in the outfield grass.
Not yet recovered from U2 concert.
It will be back on the next homestand,
Nice job by Colby backing up Holliday.
Do you think it was a hit and run call?
The Astros are going to be feeling Happless before long.
I know I am a little behind on the events so far (I have had a bottle in one hand and baby in the other) but it seems I remember in the 2006 WS the detriot right fielder slipping on a fly ball and it scoring a run and winning the game. The pence slip reminded me.
Good to see Yadi taking out the base steal attempt after the flubs yesterday by Laird.
I know it can be stressful, but you should really abstain from drinking while babysitting;)
Good one, lol, guess that sounded bad. The bottle had momma’s milk. That’s pretty funny though cause when momma takes over daddy does grab a bud (can).
Is that three games in a row for yadi hitting a hr?
Yes, since he sat on Sunday.
You always have the answers Brian, thanks. Also, thanks for the reply, I was beginning to think I was beeing shunned
Not a chance K. You are one of my favorite posters here.
I don’t have as much to contribute as you more learned posters, but thanks
Why do the keepp pitching Yadi low and away?
Visually challenged scouts?
Two game hr streak for colby now
Boys trying hard to get Mo a better player to go along with Edwin.
I hope not, at least before fri, I plan on trying to get him to throw me a 3rd out ball in the RF stands, I was going to peersuade him by yelling Russell County Rules.
jk
ha ha, you’ll get his attention if you yell that out KBM.
He’ll be your buddy then, may even throw you a ball.
Prescient!
I wish they would show the slip from the 06 WS, seems like it won the game, I might be imagining it. I think it was the tigers rfer. If I tweeted, id tell fx mw to show it.
Colby is doing less of a leg lift on his last two HRs. They still went a long way, because he was quick to the ball. If Rasmus keeps looking good, he should sidestep a trade to the south side of Chicago. It will be hard for the White Sox to provide a good enough package to land Rasmus.
The way it would have to work would be for the White Sox to trade slugger Carlos Quentin. Quentin could land prospects they could turn around and send to St Louis with Edwin Jackson and Matt Thornton, in a deal for Colby and Bryan Anderson, etc.
A lot of moving pieces and hard to bring off. But Kenny Williams seems decisive, like Mo. So the rumor seems plausible.
The White Sox are frustrated, as they should be, with overpaid Alex Rios and Adam Dunn. Colby can park Rios on the bench.