The Cardinal Nation blog

Brian Walton's news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals (TM) and their minor league system

Cardinals offense not helping overcome blown saves

As previously documented here at The Cardinal Nation Blog, the St. Louis Cardinals have compiled a Major League-leading total of nine blown saves through the first quarter of the 2011 season. While they are concentrated on Ryan Franklin’s four, five other Cardinals relievers have contributed one each.

Six of these have been arguably the most damaging kind – a blown save in the ninth inning – leaving little or no time to respond. Franklin has four with Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez each with one.

On the road, a ninth-inning blown save either means a walkoff win for the opponent or an extra-inning game. At home, the ninth-inning blown save still guarantees the offense a minimum of three at-bats to respond.

Unfortunately for the Cardinals in 2011, five of their six ninth-inning blown saves to date have occurred away from Busch Stadium. In three cases, the contest ended immediately and in the other two, the game became tied, only for St. Louis to fall in extras. Such was the occurrence in Cincinnati on Friday night when Sanchez absorbed the blown save in the ninth and Jason Motte took the loss in the tenth.

In other words, in three of the six ninth-inning blown save games, the Cardinals offense had an opportunity to step up and take back the lead, but did not. (They won one other extra-inning game, in Atlanta, for a 1-3 record in contests that went beyond nine innings this season.)

I will return to that point shortly.

St. Louis Cardinals blown saves, ninth inning, 2011 through May 15

Pitcher Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR IBB HBP BK WP
Eduardo Sanchez 5/13/2011 STL @CIN L 5-6 (10) 9-9 ,BS 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Mitchell Boggs 4/26/2011 STL @HOU L 5-6 9-9f ,BL 0 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ryan Franklin 4/17/2011 STL @LAD L 1-2 9-9f ,BL 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Ryan Franklin 4/9/2011 STL @SFG L 2-3 9-9f ,BL 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Franklin 4/8/2011 STL @SFG L 4-5 (12) 9-9 ,BS 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Ryan Franklin 3/31/2011 STL SDP L 3-5 (11) 9-9 ,BS 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0

Ninth-inning blown save factoids – the TLR years

Six ninth-inning blown saves so far puts the Cardinals on pace for 24 this season. That is almost double the worst previous year in the Tony La Russa years in St. Louis, 13 in 2008.

The most losses taken in one season in these games has been seven. That occurred in both 2006 and 2008.

Through La Russa’s first 15 seasons, the team had a total of 100 such blown saves, or an average of about seven per year. Obviously, just one more the entire rest of the way would meet that average.

In no prior year, had the Cardinals suffered more than four ninth-inning blown saves prior to May 16. That was also in 2008, a non-playoff season. (All were by Jason Isringhausen in his final campaign with St. Louis. More on that following.)

The most losses the Cardinals previously took in these games prior to May 16 was three in 2003 – half the 2011 count.

Prior to 2011, La Russa’s Cardinals averaged fewer than two ninth-inning blown saves prior to May 16 – a total of 25 in 15 years.

St. Louis Cardinals blown saves, ninth inning, annual win-loss totals since 1996

Year 2011 1996-2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
Season W-L 0-6 38-62 0-1 2-5 6-7 2-0 2-7 1-3 4-2 4-5 2-4 1-4 2-3 4-5 5-6 0-6 3-4
Percent wins 0% 38%
Year 2011 1996-2010 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996
thru May 15 0-6 13-12 0-0 1-1 2-2 1-0 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-3 1-1 0-2 0-0 2-0 2-1 0-1 1-1
Percent wins 0% 52%

As already noted, in three of these six blown save situations in 2011, the Cardinals had a chance to answer, but did not. As such, their winning percentage in this subset of games is zero.

Though there is a dependency on the home-road distribution, note in the table above that in the past 15 years prior to 2011, the Cardinals came back to win 38 percent of all games in which ninth-inning save opportunities had been blown (38 of 100). Again, this includes all opponent walkoffs.

Further, in past years, the Cardinals had even greater success coming back from this hole early in the season, with a better-than-.500 pre-May 16 record at 13-12 from 1996-2010.

Granted, this year’s offense is just 0-for-3 in these situations so far, but nothing can pick up a struggling relief corps more than some clutch hits. Clearly the 2011 Cardinals are capable.

After all, much has been written about these Cardinals hitters leading the National League in runs scored. (However, do note that lead is perilous. They are just six runs ahead of the Reds with one more game played.)

With such a prolific offense, it seems like it is time for a few of those runs to be scored in the most crucial late-game situations to give their teammates a much-needed lift.

Bonus data – naming names

Following are the names of the 24 Cardinals relievers with ninth-inning blown saves during the La Russa years along with their share of the 106 games. The number of seasons in which the relievers blew a save are included in parens.

Note that these are just totals and do not indicate percentage of all save opportunities blown (and converted). Still, Franklin’s 15 in less than four years is not a markedly different rate from Isringhausen’s 32 over seven seasons. Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley added seven in two years.

Jeff Brantley (1998) and Ricky Botallico (1999) each had six in one season, but Izzy holds the TLR-years record of eight ninth-inning blown saves in 2006. He also had six in 2004. It seems most unlikely that Franklin will be given the opportunity to match that.

St. Louis Cardinals relievers, ninth-inning blown saves, 1996-current

# 9th inn BS Reliever (years)
32 Jason Isringhausen (7)
15 Ryan Franklin (4)
7 Dennis Eckersley (2)
6 Jeff Brantley (1) Ricky Botallico (1)
5 Dave Veres (2) Mike Timlin (3)
3 Braden Looper (2) Cal Eldred (1) Juan Acevedo (2) Rick Croushore (2) T.J. Mathews (1)
2 Chris Perez (1) Kyle McClellan (2) Tony Fossas (1)
1 Brad Thompson Eduardo Sanchez Jason Motte Jeff Fassero John Frascatore
Kiko Calero Mitchell Boggs Steve Kline Russ Springer

Thanks to researcher Tom Orf for pulling the raw data used to create this report.

Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.

42 Responses to “Cardinals offense not helping overcome blown saves”

  1. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    There are many, many things going on………coming to a head etc,etc;

    None bigger than the conjoined twins (AP+TLR) facing new and even more formidable challenges. Their recent separation threatened to expose their “true nature” by its effect on the teams self image.
    Albert has the “sore wrist” for tonight……….Tony the “is he well enough to coach” going for him……….. The Philly’s are struggling………Cliff Lee desperate for a feeding……….but arrogant in the strike zone….plenty of strikeouts…..but damage on occasion without run support………

    How does anyone here think this goes tonight………… Philly’s just watching for the limp, or the excuse, or the Westbrook……….to go into a feeding frenzy………. who will Tony’s return bolster????? anyone that can help?
    Berkman / Holiday’s progress/bonding has been stressed by the lack of a meaningful evolution…….
    Stress has Tony’s immune system in crisis………if he is ever “on his toes” of late……..can he possible be at this point……….. Pujols will be shaking his sore wrist after one failure or another…. no help there I fear………Yadi at 6th giving Berkman no backup………. Westbrook relentlessly predictable……no BP even if he was good……….. team needs change, or it becomes exactly what all feared it might………….. and its not about baseball……..

  2. Nutlaw says:

    So why is Craig playing 2B and Punto 3B when Westbrook is on the mound? They almost had me going last time with the whole, “Garcia is a lefty” explanation.

    • crdswmn says:

      TLR is high on opioids?

    • JumboShrimp says:

      Craig being at 2B signifies how little TLR likes Craig at 3B. Craig cannot be any good defending 2B, so you must really hate him at 3B to stash him at 2B. TLR values defense at 3B more than at 2B, apparently, because otherwise you would just put Craig at 3B and play Punto at 2B.
      Punto is at 3B, to provide a right swing against Lee and much better defense.

    • CariocaCardinal says:

      If what they dont like about Craig at third is his throwing accuracy (that’s what has been reported) then whether he can play second or not seems non- related to his abilities (or lack their of) at third.

  3. Brian Walton says:

    Post-Dispatch reporting lineup changes: Pujols at 3B, Punto to 2B. Berkman at 1B. Craig in RF.

    • crdswmn says:

      I hate when TLR plays the matchups to the extreme. For God’s sake just put Descalso at 3B . Jeebus.

    • WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

      Wow…………………..Tony is shaking things up……………….Question is, was that first line up a mistake? or did Tony start taking flack from his staff?

      I all fairness………this lineup is predicated on the assumption that the only way your getting to Lee in the first place………is the mistake put in the bleachers………… it may have a very important undercurrent though……….. Tony is Crazy…….or desperate….. or Crazy desperate………or giving everyone an excuse from the get go about why they got their ass’s whipped………… AP can’t play third here…………

      Another question arises……………why does a contending team……….need any of this BS……….even in Tony’s estimation………………..??????????????

      • WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

        Forgot to answer my on speculation……………………………. this is a calculated distraction away from “other more pressing issues”…………….. in his opinion………. Pujols is going down….Berkman isn’t going to keep up with the thunderbolts coming his way………see if you can name a few…………. Franklin pitches tonight in a mop-up role…….no way Westbrooke makes the 5th………..

        • WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

          It’s nothing new,” said Pujols. “”Whatever the team needs. It’s not about me.”

          La Russa said, “This is a better defensive unit. Albert volunteered and said, ‘I can play third.’

          “Albert said, ‘I can do it. I can do it.’ It’s a matter of trusting,” said La Russa.

          “And I trust him.”

          Enough said…………………………

        • CariocaCardinal says:

          “no way Westbrooke makes the 5th………..”

          And Colby will be under .300 in two weeks and Yadi’s average will drop 20 points in the next month.

          I like it when Westie makes predictions.

    • JumboShrimp says:

      TLR must have decided he cannot stomach Craig at 2B either, where Punto is clearly superior. Craig might be better than Bergman in RF (though this could be a photo finish). It is possible Tyler Greene is in the dog house after yesterday.
      Bergman is fine at 1B of course.
      So the iffy thing in this alignment is Albert, with his elbow question, playing 3B.

      Though some fans think TLR is too conservative in his habits, this is a team that move Skip to 2B, sometimes has pitchers bat 8th, and today has Albert back to his first home at 3B. There are few moves TLR will not take, if he sees sufficient grounds to try one out.

    • Nutlaw says:

      That’s great. I’ve been screaming for Pujols to see time at 3B for years! I figured that his substitution there the other week was a one time deal.

  4. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    They were intending to make Westbrook throw strikes…………..and he did………he had good motion…
    We needs runs…………

  5. blingboy says:

    The lineup is awesome. Great way to get all available firepower in the lineup. Like Molina 7th. Sure hope I see something like it tomorrow night at the social media night game.

    I have to tip my cap to Albert, risking looking foolish if it goes wrong. Hope he does well. Lets see if he short hops Lance. :)

  6. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    25 pitches….thats good………pitch around Holiday and Berkman…….Craig with an unrealistic swing expectation at least touches one…….if he is thinking base hit on pitch one or two…..we probably score some runs………….

  7. Kansasbirdman says:

    That blown call was frustrating, he was in the wrong position to make that call. Cost a run.

  8. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    This team is beatable……….we have to take smarter at bats………….. Lee doesn’t look sharp…..if you stay back and don’t try to do too much, he might give it up.

  9. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Punto stays back…..short…….hits the middle…..stings it………..

    Molina………big show…..power guy buried in the order……..big long swings, ominous in there portent. He’s in it……….right……………

  10. Kansasbirdman says:

    Of course I am rooting against Lee tonight but I am so used to rooting for him esp since the last few years I have been rooting for him to demolish the yankees in the postseason and it was esp sweet when he turned them down. His justification was that he enjoyed the team in philly and playing in the nl (getting to bat and be a complete player). Makes you wonder if the cards had the money (5 years 120 mil) what could have been.

  11. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Lee looks vulnerable to me………….. Craig had the chance to draw blood……….looked like he didn’t even know what to expect……………. we could win this game…..but we have been scouted it would appear.

  12. Brian Walton says:

    Strong seven-inning outing for Westbrook.

  13. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Great job by Westbrook……………………. Pujols is having a game……….and then he bails out and hits into a fools DP…………..and that is an understatement……..just threw the bat head. That was huge.

  14. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Wish we could of had Craig playing 2nd tonight……………………………………. Considering everything, the fact that Descalso wasn’t in for the 8th suggests to me Tony is going to do some of this AP at third for awhile.

  15. Kansasbirdman says:

    Salas gets his first save. :-)

  16. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Great performance by WBrook……………………….. Punto is a player………..the big plus was the AP move………………not that it did anything……..except move AP……….. Craig’s hand position is a joke against pitchers that change speed……….he was a zero………….

  17. JumboShrimp says:

    Yesterday, on the Sabbath, some vile thoughts were expressed, since the Cards lost an unholy trinity to the Redlegs
    Tonight, Tony is back and refuses to lose. Westbrook, Sanchez, and Salas make it look easy.

  18. JumboShrimp says:

    We got Jess Todd back. He returned to home base. Good.

  19. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Phillies were heartless tonight……….. JRoll just dogged it on that GB from Molina…….. Ibanez had nothing happening…………………………. should be an easy win tomorrow…….right?

    Philly’s are stressing their rotation big time……… Little chase utley plays a huge roll for them. I’m dying to see the betting line tomorrow………..

  20. blingboy says:

    Albert looked good at 3rd and the move seemed to perk up the team. It didn’t perk up Albert’s bat, going Ofer again. He is 11th on the team in doubles, tied with Tyler Greene. That is worth thinking about since we’re a quarter of the season in. Maybe he’ll snap out of it tonight.

    I see where the Reds announcer says the Cards are the most hated team in baseball.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.