Note: This is the first of the reader article submissions as part of The Cardinal Nation Blog’s Cardinals Social Media Night ticket giveaway contest. For details on how you too can participate, click here.
The following article was submitted by Marilyn Green. You can follow her on Twitter @Marilyncolor and via Facebook as well.
By Marilyn Green
It is said that Social Security is the third rail of politics. If there is a third rail of St. Louis Cardinals baseball, it is definitely Albert Pujols. Not since Stan Musial has any player epitomized Cardinal baseball more than Pujols. He is the most talked-about player in Cardinal Nation and arguably in Baseball Nation. His very existence among Cardinal fans engenders strong emotional responses, whether good, bad or indifferent.
The 2011 season is a season like no other in Albert Pujols’ career. For the first time in 11 seasons, Pujols is on the brink of free agency, that status so coveted among the elite, and even the non-elite, of baseball players. The question on the lips of every Cardinals fan, and every baseball fan (if they were honest with themselves) is ‘where will Albert Pujols play after the 2011 season?’ The anticipation is palpable.
As I write this (April 30, 2011) we are 26 games into the 2011 season. The Cardinals are 16-11, in first place in the NL Central Standings, two games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals as a team have the highest team batting average in MLB at .295, the highest on-base perecentage at .362, and the third-highest slugging percentage at .451. Matt Holliday has the highest BA in MLB at .407 and his teammate Lance Berkman has the third-highest at .393.
What is odd about this picture is the notable absence of Pujols among the league leader standings. As a matter of fact, Pujols is now the proud owner of the lowest stat line in the first 26 games of a season in his career. Below, for your viewing and pondering pleasure, is a table of statistics for Albert Pujols for the first 26 games of each of his 11 seasons. The statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
| Pujols thru 26 G | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2001 | 0.336 | 0.429 | 0.703 | 1.132 |
| 2002 | 0.295 | 0.419 | 0.558 | 0.977 |
| 2003 | 0.390 | 0.467 | 0.675 | 1.143 |
| 2004 | 0.276 | 0.440 | 0.552 | 0.992 |
| 2005 | 0.339 | 0.405 | 0.587 | 0.992 |
| 2006 | 0.333 | 0.500 | 0.881 | 1.381 |
| 2007 | 0.280 | 0.363 | 0.500 | 0.862 |
| 2008 | 0.376 | 0.535 | 0.635 | 1.170 |
| 2009 | 0.337 | 0.449 | 0.745 | 1.154 |
| 2010 | 0.327 | 0.412 | 0.615 | 1.027 |
| 2011 | 0.255 | 0.316 | 0.471 | 0.786 |
So, what is your point, you ask? Well, the obvious answer is a rhetorical question (at least by me; I have better sense than to try to answer it). Is Pujols’ contract status and pending free agency having an effect on his 2011 performance?
If you ask Pujols, you would get a resounding (and probably annoyed) “No.” The numbers are what they are. When asked, Pujols has responded that he has not suddenly forgotten to hit. Okay. The question fans may be asking is whether some other verb, past or present participle thereof, may apply.
Have fun, and keep the tomato throwing to a minimum. The seeds are murder to get out of your hair.
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Thanks for adding the poll Brian.
No problem. Should have done it at the very start. Likely missed a number of initial viewers.
Nice job, crdswmn! It’s quite clear that the team is fortunate to have Holliday and Berkman hitting so well in order to pick up the slack. Still, I have to think that Pujols can turn things around quickly.
CC also wrote up an interesting piece ranking minor league prospects on the main site, for those who subscribe.
Thanks Nut.
Crdswmn-Nice writeup.I knew AP was not himself so far this season…………he has been just a average joe instead of King Albert.I think he is putting a bit of pressure on himself.
Thank you BW.
Good article.
I almost checked the “Something else is bothering him” box, partly because I am somewhat worried but more because I superstitiously think he’d start proving me wrong starting tonight. He doesn’t seem right and it may be the contract I guess. If it is that then I think he’ll overcome it. The interesting question, though, is what do we, and other teams, do if he goes on like this all year? Will we still spring for an 8 year contract? Will we have to if no other team does? Will he accept less money for fewer years? $300 million?!
No one can know what is going on in Albert’s mind. No one can definitively draw a conclusion from numbers either, but numbers are the only objective evidence available. The reason I focused on the first 26 games is because of the argument that we have such a small sample size. I thought if I looked at the same sample size at the same time of the season, it might give some clue. I had the feeling the 2011 numbers were going to be significantly different than previous years but I wasn’t sure. The BA numbers were low in both 2004 and 2007 though still higher than 2011. The significant difference from my point of view is the OPS numbers. Despite a sub .300 BA in 2004 and 2007 the OPS numbers were still impressive. Though the 2011 OPS is not bad, it is a significant drop from all other years.
The bottom line in my mind is that the numbers are significantly lower in 2011 over the same time period than any other year of his career. The only factor that we are aware of that is different (other than age, which is also a question in my mind) is the looming contract issue. It is certainly more than possible that it is a coincidence, but I think it raises legitimate questions.
Agreed, good article.
Here’s a number for you and it makes his OBP stand out even further, at least for me:
Through Saturday, I believe Albert was batting .000 with a 3-1 count.
Further evidence is on Video, swinging at bad pitches instead of taking the walk.
I can’t pretend to know what is going on in his mind. But I think it would be better for him to get on base than try and be a hero in every AB. That’s the biggest difference that I see in 2011 vs. his other years.
Good point, T8Ball!
“No one can know what is going on in Albert’s mind.”
Come on now. Westie beens telling me for nearly 2 years what´s going on in Albert´s mind (and everyone elses)!
Poignant, timely and well written. Damn.
Thanks, I guess.
It seems like Albert has gotten very streaky the last couple years. Last season he went through an extended streak where he had no power but hit singles for average. Now this year, his HR number is solid but everything else is down. So it could be that we are just seeing increasing streakiness. Of course, that could be due to increasing contract pressure, which could have applied last year as well as now.
An additional point is that the gold glove defense was gone last year, his defensive stats placed him an average defensive 1B, and this year so far he’s been sub-par with the glove. Another multi-season trend in the downward direction.
If his strategy is to lead the league in homers again, is that enough to land a mega-contract? Maybe he should have taken Mo’s offer last winter.
Brickhands not wasting any time tonight. 1st inning. The pitchers must love him. Not.
That one didn’t cost us but I hope he gets calmed down or perked up whatever he needs. Seems like the whole team is one edge lately
Nice article crdswmn! Brian, you have a quality site here, even your posters can produce quality articles
Thanks K.
Where is WC? I wrote about his favorite subject.
He’s probably holed up writing his article. In quatrains.
Thats closer to the truth than you might think BB…………….
Good read CRD…………………… AP bat has dropped to flat in an attempt to slow it down a bit and get that bouncing loop out………… at least he has began a dialog with coaches about his struggles…………..
I’m sure all of us are aware that I predicted this “problem” a long while back. Heres a thought for you…………..Tony loves to jiggle his line ups……….he tries to effect a players mental outlook by giving them sh-t-y assignments…(todays two botched hit and runs) and spends way too much time in their heads………………………………….He is in AP’s head……..he is studying him very closely at this point…..and is doing little more that running interference for MM to try an approach………… Tony isn’t doing so well himself either……………. When all the good you do is credited to Gods direct approval, and you ain’t doing so well, and you don’t understand why………..waiting for the answer can be like ” Waiting for Godot”………………….
I’ve seen enough in my time here to recognize the danger AP is in……….. an injury, or a sequence of unfortunate set backs can be the end to a stored career………it happens all the time……
Yes, this is just the first of several well-written articles submitted by readers.
If I were into research………..and wanted some attention…..I might consider this…….
If someone really was worth twice as much as any other player………considering baseball tactics and options in this modern age……………could anyone actually expect to earn or be worth that value in a baseball competition? When the old time greats were barnstorming around on trains, and phones were new………no video or intensive scouting reports………..or video preparations……….. Crowds paying a quarter to see games……….. you would be thought “chicken” if you walked a legend that they all came to see…………..
Bonds with 200 walks? Were his Hr’s from contending teams? did his free passes make the Giants a winner? Times change……………… with a down economy projected for a few years at least…..Stands to reason ticket prices would have to go down…..or at least expected too………. are owners giving out some large contracts….long term contracts……… maybe to argue the need for high revenues to pay the greedy players, to offset an expected battle over “profits”……..there is some might fun money floating around these days………….Worth? Braun’s contract was to me “peculiar” …… how can you project a 10% inflation in a crumbling economy? They had a great deal through 2015…..and re financed it for some reason??????? Is the 30 million dollar player just a myth???????
I´m aware you predicted this problem. I just can´t remember if it was before, after or in-between you predicted
Albert would have a great season and drag the team down with him.
Meant to say on edge
Albert’s contract is certainly on the mind of fans. Its unclear why the issue would prey on Pujols’ mind.
He is already wealthy. Barring a serious injury, Albert is certain to be even more wealthier next season. His agent does the lion’s share of talking with the Cardinals, Albert does not have to bother about that. So why should a guy who hangs in against 95+ fastballs, why would he be distracted by a contract that only looms as generous? Albert is so driven and results oriented, so dedicated to his craft, why would he be distracted by a mere contract and having to get even richer? Where is the stress? Throw me in that briar patch.
The remainder of the season will provide plenty more N to find out if Albert will have a typical year or slump from his lofty standards. If he has a down year, people can debate the reason. Come next winter, teams can consider if it was an off year or part of a long term slide, and adjust their bids accordingly.
Berkman had an off year in 2010. Accordingly, he is only getting by on $8MM this year. (How Lance will be able to afford gas money, it beats me.) Why is not Berkman having an off-season so far, owing to the stress of thinking about his contract for 2012? Why is Lance seemingly so much better able to manage future contract stress than is Albert?
Don’t know Jumbo. Everybody is different.
I wonder what Pujols’ OPS was in August of 2010 and in September 2010? I do not recall him being hot late during 2010. If he slumped late last year, early 2011 may be a continuance of same.
Aug 1.051; Sept 1.050
Thanks. I guess the team died offensively during the last two months, but Pujols kept on going.
If Albert suffered contract worries, would he not have had them during September 2010, knowing the Cards would approach his agent about a contract after the 2010 season? Yet he was unaffected at the end of the 2010 campaign, despite looming contract negotiations.
Some fans assume guys will have big seasons during “walk years” headed into free agency. Instead, maybe Albert so loves the Cardinals, he prefers to slump during his walk year, so no other team will want him and Cheapy DeWitt will be able to re-sign him.
That must be it Jumbo.
That’s certainly an interesting theory Jumbo. Not likely, but interesting.
Looking at old photos of Albert, he used to hold the bat very high and pointed almost straight up. Now, he’s laying it back over his shoulder. It is a very pronounced change.
He also had what I called an elevator motion in which he moved up and down at the knees while he waited for the pitch. Gone now.
And his swing is off balance.
Another fine game by Berkman and Theriot. The bottom part of the order looks weker without Freese.
Lohse giving up a slam was hard to overcome.
You must have stepped away when a very routine grounder went right through Theriot’s legs for his MLB-leading eighth error of the season and another play in which he almost dropped another routine popup. I wouldn’t call that a “fine game” from him.
Who cares about defense?
Theriot’s major league leading error resulted in no harm.
An almost drop counts as a catch!
Theriot had 3 hits, leading the team. Great night by our able leadoff hitter!
I wonder how long it will take TLR to drop Pujols to 5th in the lineup and move Berkman up to bat 3rd?
How long indeed. A year and a half so far and still counting. Albert’s Jumbo strategy to reduce his appeal to deep pocket teams would be more successful if Tony would cooperate.
If one believes the table above, Pujols had an OPS above 1,000 last summer. This is plenty big enough for him retain 3rd in the lineup (good enough for runner up MVP).
So jiggling the lineup is a new question with this year. If Pujols is under 800 OPS by the All Star Game, TLR may feel pressure to move Albert down in the lineup.
I will ignore the “if one believes” above, since I don’t own stock in Baseball-Reference.com
If the stats were happy ones, they would not be questioned. Go facts, go!
Very well written article. However I think use of the analogy of Albert being a 3rd rail seems inappropriate. The 3rd rail no one wants to touch. Everyone seems to weigh in with an opinion about Albert and his worth or the cause of his struggles.
To me this wouldn´t be an issue except for the fact Albert made a big deal of the deadline for his contract because he didn´t want any distractions. That only works if you dont play like you are distracted.
Isn’t the third rail the source of power? In that context, it seems very appropriate.
Yes, I´m sure that´s what she must have meant
Yeah, that’s what I meant.
Thinking about this a little more, that may be the problem then. He is no longer the 3rd rail. The power is gone!
Shorted out? Jumped the rails? Off track? Stuck on a siding?
He stands in the box thinking ‘I think I can, I think I can….’.
Hopefully it´s just a bad contact. If it is a resister problem that might even be better since once he get´s up to full speed the resister wont come in to play and he´ll keep going with no problems.
Due to temperature and moisture issues, Lohse had grip issues it appeared. We have seen what that causes. Change up was not moving down, slider would not break/slide. He started the game with sinkers and cutters with an occasional fastball. Marlins were sitting on the change it appeared. He was bouncing it in the dirt because it would not dive as usual. He bombed the strike zone early. When it came time to protect the lead, they made him come in. The first bomb was a catcher decoy away from the intended location. It missed by a foot, followed by 400+ ft relocation project. Thats the game. He will be fine I’d guess by the Saturday start, and then the Friday opening in Cincinnati.
The Craig move to third……….is way wrong. That has been a devil to field of late………. I smell a protest by Tony here………… that move will very likely cost the game tonight………. hope its worth it…….. we will need 6+ this evening…..hope Craig produces more than he gives away.