By Ian Walton
(Note from Brian Walton: Though this is the first guest article here at The Cardinal Nation Blog since the Cardinals Social Media Night tickets contest began, family ties render its author ineligible for the prize.)
Despite the loss of Adam Wainwright for the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals found themselves in a tie for first place in the National League Central, led by the third best team starting pitching earned run average in the NL following Kyle Lohse’s two hit shutout of the Washington Nationals on Thursday.
Alongside impressive starts to the year by Jamie Garcia and Kyle McClellan, Lohse has thus far rebounded from a pair of injury plagued seasons to maintain the rotation as a strength for St. Louis. He now holds a 3-1 record with a sparkling 2.01 ERA in 2011 heading into Wednesday night’s start in Houston.
Despite asserting that Lohse was singularly responsible for the Cardinals’ failure to reach the playoffs in 2010 (link), I am encouraged by what I am seeing from him this year. Most notable has been his exceptionally strong control in 2011, allowing a mere four walks in 31 1/3 innings. That is good for a 1.15 BB/9 rate, a significant improvement over his already strong career 2.74 BB/9. Furthermore, he has increased his groundball percentage to 45.9% this season from a 41.9% career mark.
Lohse has a fairly diverse arsenal as he utilizes a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a changeup, a slider, and the occasional curveball. The changeup has been his most effective pitch thrown every year since 2007 and, in fact, throughout the vast majority of his career according to Fangraphs. As such, it is encouraging to see him with a career high changeup usage of 20.5% in 2011, up from 13.0 % in 2010 and 15.8% in 2009.
As his primary swing and miss pitch, Lohse’s changeup has a 16.9% whiff rate in 2011. Thrown at an average of 79.2 MPH, it provides a strong contrast to his 88.9 MPH fastballs, which are thrown almost exclusively to contact. In pitch counts with two strikes and fewer than three balls, Lohse’s changeup was thrown a whopping 36.7% of the time in 2011.
Table 1: Kyle Lohse strike percentage by pitch type
| Lohse 2011 |
thrown vs RHB | % strike vs RHB | thrown vs LHB | % strike vs LHB |
| Four Seam | 69 | 63.8 | 63 | 65.1 |
| Sinker | 46 | 73.9 | 71 | 56.3 |
| Changeup | 27 | 59.3 | 56 | 66.1 |
| Slider | 45 | 82.2 | 12 | 58.3 |
| Curveball | 3 | 33.3 | 10 | 70 |
The right-handed pitching Lohse’s changeup usage against left-handed batters is 26.4%. His changeup is particularly useful against lefties as his sinker and slider are clearly considerably less effective against those batters as shown in the table above. I must admit to being a little confused as to why he has been favoring the sinker over the four-seam against left-handers to date, however.
As can be seen in the above graph, shown from the perspective of the catcher, Lohse’s changeups (in purple) have been kept down and away from left handed batters, hugging the edges of the strike zone unless he tries to get them to chase low. This can be particularly deceptive when paired with his four-seam fastball (in red), which is often thrown high and inside.
Although his changeup usage against right handed batters drops to 14.0% primarily in favor of his slider, I remain encouraged by his command of his changeup as he still manages to pitch the ball low and away despite moving to the other side of the plate.
In conclusion, even beyond his 2.01 ERA this year, I like what Lohse is doing on the mound. He has good deception and location on his changeup, and he is rightfully throwing it more than ever. His walks are down and his groundball percentage is up. As long as he can stay healthy and maintain his current approach, he should provide a much needed boost to the Cardinals’ playoff chances this season.
Texas Leaguers provided the graphs used in this article while both Texas Leaguers and Fangraphs provided the stats contained herein.
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Nice breakdown Nut……………….. Few people realize how much grip pressure it takes to throw a weak gripped pitch. Wainwright busting a tendon in his finger trying to throw the “super curve”……Carpenter not using a change up because of the wear and tear on shoulder and elbow, mainly because if the similarities contrasting the differences in wrist motion of his bread and butter stuff. Lohse has a curve as big as Carpenter…..he doesn’t throw it for the inverse reasoning….it hurts……….. It appears that the “Popeye” forearm from the surgery and rehab……………..has its advantages………. That isn’t just a change up he’s throwing….it has some screwgie mixed in.
Very interesting. Hopefully not too much screwball mixed in, as I know that that pitch more than any will cause damage over time.
Screwgie = evil influence …………just guessing by the radical sinking motion.
1. Nick Punto, 2B
2. David Freese, 3B
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Matt Holliday, LF
5. Lance Berkman, RF
6. Yadier Molina, C
7. Tyler Greene, SS
8. Jon Jay, CF
9. Kyle Lohse, RHP
Lets hope Tony is right with this………..no doubt trying to get Freese to do something different. Tony could have easily put Berkman 2nd………… He seems intent on avoiding dangerous precedents.
Tony isnt going to set Berkman up to fail in the #2 spot against a LH’er. If he wanted to avoid precedents he could let Berkman bat 2nd here and fail.
This is the worst lineup I have ever seen.
Wow, really? Where were you in the second half of last season?
We had some different players last season.
I don’t like Tyler Greene. Terrible defense and he strikes out too much. Waste of a roster spot.
Greene brings power and speed. He’s not bad.
Well, Punto leading off is reasonably bad, but why is he playing second base in favor of Tyler Greene at shortstop? I understand why LaRussa wants to leave Theriot at SS even though I hate the reasoning, but Greene doesn’t beat out Punto in defensive ability or team standing.
I don’t have a problem with that in that if TLR wants to play Greene, it is better to keep him at SS where he is most comfortable.
Making up for shoving him in RF for a short time last night?
I remember some Duncan, Ankiel, Thurston, Khalil Greene lineups from April/May of 2009. Those were the worst lineups I’d ever seen
all were just barely hovering above the mendoza line.
WCBW used to like Thurston and Barden. He blamed TLR for messing them up, IIRC.
The viability of the lineup remains to be seen………….. he is trying to effect Freese who in on the “border”. Lets hope it works……. Punto will be fine…….Hap will need to throw a few pitches his way.
You all saw Molina run yesterday…………he does not have a “stressful running style” (AP does)…….its all attitudinal……and that is a big problem for me………… this is an off handed remark but it should be said…..Molina’s not stupid…….he has many teams pitching around hitters to get to his speed deficiency..
Like AP hitting third……..allot more rbi and hero opportunities come your way as a result……. he plays too much………..Laird who was trying to be a productive team remember, is starting to get the Jason LaRue treatment……….thats Tony……that isn’t about baseball……….it will unmake this team eventually.
So far Punto getting a workout at 2B. TLR might have known something having Greene play SS and Punto at 2B.
TLR went with Greene, because Houston was starting a lefty, Happ. Houston has a short porch to left, Greene likes to slug, it made sense to start Greene and no surprise that it resulted in Tyler reaching the bleachers.
Descalso sits tonight, since he does not have a favorable matchup against the starting pitcher.
We are up 6 to zip. We should not have to worry about Franklin or Boggs this evening.
Don’t speak so soon…
It was a win all the way! We just let the Astros get close so as to dash the hopes of their fans.
So Lohse fared rather darned well tonight. I was pleasantly surprised to see his curveball being mixed in so effectively.
New rule: all Cardinals starters must go 9 IP each game.
the entire BP seems to be in a flux. The potential is there, we’ve seen it. Just need to get over this little bump. Who gets sent down when Tallet/Augy come back. Both are eligible on Thursday. Hmmm.
My guess is that Salas will go down when Tallet is ready as will Augenstein.
I think Salas is our best Pen guy……..he executes……… you cannot send Sanchez down……… he is what hero’s are made of………… Augenstein wasn’t a good pitcher……..should he return at the expense of one of the others………….this is clearly Mo/BD politics vs Tony/Dave………..
If Franklin comes into the game with a role/goal………..and that is to survive………he must establish his trick repertoire…First…. period……. this is one instance when Dave’s approach may be fatal……not bad…but inadequate……… Franklin is adrenal exhausted….Halo3….. he’s on the killing floor.
If you think Salas should stay, who would you send down when Tallet comes back? (assuming those currently on the roster are healthy)
Tony will keep the second lefty………… Tony’s usage of Mott……regardless of how one might gage his effectiveness……… shows concerns for said effectiveness………. I trust they are getting inquires about Franklin by now………..do they play to win………or not………. The privilege of having a guy like Miller or trying a rehab of a guy like Franklin in the arena, is prohibitive. Bautista is important but hasn’t thrown much lately……..you have to keep him…………..the starter are dragging the team along…. the offense can hide a bad pen………. Lets face it ….Houston is feeding off our vulnerabilities…….wait till you play the Phillies and the Braves………………. Smart team has Franklin turn an ankle and take the 15 day with rehab.
Nut……do a study on how many hit and runs a coach or a team or both can blow in a week. We gotta be close.
Brazilian………. write up a prospectus for tonights game……make a few projection…….who is going to play etc……………
And make a fool of myself like you?
If I did do it (kind of pointless now since the lineup is out) I’d do it in a manner that suggested what I thought they should do or what I think should happen. I’m not arrogant or pretentious enough to pretend that I know what will happen or what guys are thinking or what demons are haunting them when they do things.
Back to the bench then until you learn to hold the bat.
I don’t know, Westcoast, I’ve seen how you hold the bat, and I wouldn’t say that’s a proper way to do it. Too much going on in your head to be a quality hitter ;P
I fail at smile-icons. Oh well, to internet hell I go.
Thats not a bat T8…………im taking a p–s
I have no idea how to get that sort of data, WC, but I’ve been particularly unhappy with the hit and run calls with three balls of late, myself.
Franklin has some pitches………….the presumption that he has time to come into a game and try to establish his fastball and a slider that doesn’t slide has now become a joke……….If Tony waits…the HR would have come and we lose that game………. I feel for the guy, but its time to sober up.
Sanchez and Salas both made some good pitches in a tough situation………. Mott would have lost that game in a hurry………….
Miller has lost his mind, but Molina has a hand in those walks too.
I’ve said it 100 times……..the team environment sucks…… the “exception to sound baseball” that is the prerogative of Pujols and Molina is breaking this team. In a tight game, Molina gets on top of a letter high fastball……somehow….to hit into a double play…..trying to get a hit…. again………hell with the sac fly………..hell with taking the ball out of the infield.
Pujols chasing pitches instead of taking walks is nothing more that a guy trying to pad his numbers for recognition…… and profit…….. his excess is so flagrant…….that Tony is now nothing more than his pimp………….. the game itself and his performance is proof that. I know people in baseball are aware of this problem………because they tactically pander to his weakness. Every pitcher around could go 3/0…….throw him a chaser for the DP ball……and get it 50% of the time…… he would not be allowed to do this on any other club………
Freese seems determined to fail………. he is over swinging every at bat now………. I see some MM changes there that are very unbecoming………. Little Nicky P. is trying so hard………he is twice the player as these other guys…..because he isn’t one of them……
The pen will be just fine when we loose all the drama queens……………….. Tony isn’t at his best when he’s sick like this……..and on his continued “bias” ……… we’re finished………….no body wants to embarrass Berkman…….but where was the defensive replacement? wasn’t that part of the plan? Every risk he took tonight blew up in his face…….
Colby was the only other OF on the roster, and he was getting a day off. Hamilton doesn’t make for a good defensive sub at RF.
I thought Yadi was going to be swinging for the fences after his last HR? — now he wont take the ball out of the infield?
Freese has half a year of major league AB’s with an .852 OPS but he’s determined to fail?
Pujols is walking at the same rate he has been most of his career (minus the IBB’s) – but he won’t take a walk? Btw, the HR was on a 3-0 pitch.
Some people can’t even get it right even after the fact.
The only. freaking.Drama queen is the Western kind.Jeeez what a bunch of horsehockey as Co; Potter used to say.Do you think that maybe some players just simply slump or get in a rut? It happens on every team.Look around .Not everything that happens is a mind boggling earth shattering chain of armeggeddon.Personal bias? I see a giving several chances to a veteran pitcher who has past success and trying to find a ro;e for him.Face it WC…………..Franklin aint going away.
“Franklin aint going away”
Oh say it isn’t so BW.
The D was as much to blame as the pen. Give them extra outs and extra bases it doesn’t matter who your pitcher is.
I heard the Nats are looking for a CF option because they don’t see Ankiel as an everyday player. Now that would be a defensive replacement.
Lets hope that RC + family and friends are okay after events in that part of the world. Drop us a note from Atlanta friend.
He’s fine. The storms were north of him.
Good to hear that CRD……………..he’s probably in the high school playoffs this time of year.
Over the winter I was talking up Freese batting second for a while until I yielded to all the abuse. You know who you are. I stick out my tongue in your direction.
If the offense was performing better, the trial move would not have been made. With all the GIDPs, having Freese on base ahead of Albert instead of Colby may not prove to be helpful.
Thats at least one good reason………..truth be know……….David stopped spraying the ball. Like many Cardinal hitters………he went freelance………. Tony is attempting to get his attention, and Colby’s, who is loosing the Golden Throne…………..Freese hasn’t had to deal with scouts and pitching tactics. He is in trouble…………he hit some of Houston’s bricklayers last night.
Truthfully, there’s no really good reason to put a station to station guy in the top of the order ahead of the boppers. Tony’s meds have him in an even higher orbit than usual.
Colby hasn’t been getting on and has been K-ing too much, but Freese is a poor choice.
Expect more bizarre game management tonight.
I always thought that Freese was a good choice for a number two hitter, myself. He has a great on-base percentage and has really only displayed very meager home run power at the major league level (7 HR in 391 PA), so why not use him there?
And 3 more hits last night. I guess Houston doesn’t have scouts.
Too bad Ian is ineligible for the contest.
My feeble effort is coming along but I keep breaking my crayons. Brian didn’t say anything about literacy or artistic value, so I figured I’d take a stab. I hope some of you put something together for our reading enjoyment.
I’m having trouble thinking of a topic.
Aww. Thanks, Jumbo.