Though it is still very early in the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals’ 1-3 record out of the gate is concerning many. The formula seems similar to the 2010 non-playoff season in that the pitching has been generally good, but is not being given much of a margin for error by a sputtering offense. Baserunning and defense still have room to improve.
One area in which it is too soon to draw any conclusions is winning and losing streaks, but this post will set the stage for whatever occurs ahead.
A comment made on The Cardinal Nation message board encouraged me to complete some analysis I presented in interim form last summer. I looked at Cardinals winning and losing streaks over the Tony La Russa years in St. Louis as defined by three or more consecutive games with the same outcome.
The data indicates that during seasons in which there were more losing skids than winning streaks, St. Louis missed the post-season each time. 2010 continued that pattern.
St. Louis Cardinals, number of winning and losing streaks, 1996-2010
| # Winning streaks | # Losing streaks | Playoffs | |
| 2010 | 8 | 10 | |
| 2009 | 12 | 9 | Yes |
| 2008 | 10 | 8 | |
| 2007 | 10 | 9 | |
| 2006 | 13 | 9 | Yes |
| 2005 | 12 | 3 | Yes |
| 2004 | 16 | 5 | Yes |
| 2003 | 8 | 12 | |
| 2002 | 14 | 6 | Yes |
| 2001 | 10 | 8 | Yes |
| 2000 | 15 | 7 | Yes |
| 1999 | 8 | 12 | |
| 1998 | 10 | 13 | |
| 1997 | 7 | 11 | |
| 1996 | 11 | 10 | Yes |
In only one of La Russa’s 15 years did his club have fewer winning streaks than 2010’s eight. Last year’s team did manufacture their best stretch of baseball since 2004 when they took eight games in a row starting just before the All-Star break.
Yet, the 2010 Cardinals almost always followed the good with the bad. Excluding the season-ending win streak, a losing stretch immediately followed a win streak in five of the seven possible chances last season. In other words, even when the club established some momentum, they could not sustain it.
St. Louis Cardinals, winning streaks by number of games, 1996-2010
| Winning streaks | 11G | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Total |
| 2010 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||
| 2009 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | ||||||
| 2008 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | |||||
| 2007 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | ||||||
| 2006 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | |||||
| 2005 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | |||||
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | ||
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |||||
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | ||||
| 2001 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | ||
| 2000 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | ||||
| 1999 | 2 | 6 | 8 | |||||||
| 1998 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |||||
| 1997 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | ||||||
| 1996 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
In terms of losing stretches, the 2010 Cardinals had a double-digit quantity of them for only the second time since 1999. Their longest losing streak last year was five games, which occurred twice, both in the second half of August as the season slipped away.
St. Louis Cardinals, losing streaks by number of games, 1996-2010
| Losing streaks | 11G | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Total |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | ||||||
| 2009 | 1 | 8 | 9 | |||||||
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | |||||
| 2007 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |||||
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | |||||
| 2005 | 3 | 3 | ||||||||
| 2004 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |||||||
| 2003 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | ||||||
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |||||
| 2001 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | ||||||
| 2000 | 1 | 6 | 7 | |||||||
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | |||||
| 1998 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | ||||||
| 1997 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | ||||
| 1996 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
As noted above, the 2011 Cardinals have yet to post a streak of three consecutive outcomes of any type at this point. Couple the team’s bumpy start with the reality that they have just one stopper this season, Chris Carpenter, instead of two with Adam Wainwright out, and the early concern may be justified. This underlines the importance of the offense getting itself untracked, removing some pressure from the pitching staff.
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My brother was at the game on sunday. Four rows back behind the Cardinal dugout. I am going to go out on a limb and say he is the team’s good luck charm and he should quit his job and attend every game.
Maybe folks could pass the hat for him!
Hey they won all 3 games I attended last year. Pass the hat for me too.
Cardinals lineup for tonight: Theriot SS, Rasmus CF, Pujols 1B, Berkman RF, Craig LF, Freese 3B, Schumaker 2B, Laird C, McClellan P.
Tony is sure “deliberate” about his non use of Tyler Greene…………almost like he is up to something.
He is certainly exposing Theriot in his current player selections…… and certainly protecting Skip.
If AP hits into another ground ball double play this evening…………I am probably going to make a statement on the subject…………Glad to see Laird……….
Punto played 258 innings at SS last year, 491 the year before that. So Tyler will become redundant when Punto comes back. Besides, he stunk this spring.
Gad. Poor Kyle. Gives up a single and the D gives up a double. Wake up.
McClellan 1st k out a starter
I don’t know why I continue to punish myself like this.
Opposition knows we’ve got a turnstyle at short, and no arms in the outfield. Colby has been victimized before failing to come in aggressively and positioned to make a strong throw.
I was just admiring all the motion K-mac had going………..so much Overbay was just standing there. Oop’s……………
Wainright in the dugout
I was at that Pirates game last year.
This team is going to make every pitcher in the NL look like a Cy Young candidate.
Interesting to see MCClellan bat. Hope he doesn’t pull a muscle.
K-mac has such great action on his curve that they aren’t going to offer at it unless its well up and in. He has to find a way to throw it big……and small………so he becomes a “back door man”………he’s working on it.
5 pitches out of the strike zone to AP….and the count is 3/2………….. center cut……and he’s flipping his wrists and not just driving the ball……………… just like he had planed to chase something and was surprised by the location…………. his entire game is starting to “stink”……
Somebody hit the fracking ball please.
62 pitches through 4……… might make 6 innings……….. the wagon is going to start getting a little heavier from here on out……..
Thank you Lance. Next please.
You mean skip????????????? what a club…………… SD is for real…..they beat the Giants.
So did the Dodgers. The Giants have only one 1 game. Sounds familiar………….
Yah, SD is just picking off cripples.
K-mac has a little rhythm going……….he needs a couple of quickies……..
Here we go. Kyle leading off will instigate an offensive ejaculation of biblical proportions.
That swing by Albert was reminiscent of last years drought…….. He just pulled off the ball……the solution was so simple then…….why not now………. pushing his hands back a few inches and swinging the hands into zone if I recall………………… and the cards announcer says we are tied thanks to AP…….wow…………. the Pirate feed went down…….how do you listen to this crap……..??????
I’ll take any kind of two out RBI right now Westy.
sac fly
I would guess that Tony won’t send him out with 95………..if he does……. he may be trying to make a point……..similar to the Garcia push””””””
Might want to protect him. Can’t be the loser, nice ERA. Nice start. Call it a day.
Pinch hitter behind him………….and he turns on that pitch……….these guys sure give us plenty of chances to be stupid.
Game on the line. Runner in scoring position, this is what Albert gets paid for.
Cha-ching
Franklin (bangs head repeatedly on keyboard).
Who would be the emergency catcher?
Big heavy sigh.
Tony sure managed the Franklin “appearance”. Yadi and the works…………smart I’d say. That gives you some indication of where his thinking was for the Garcia 9th………… there is a bit of fatalism in his methods though……..you’d think that if Franklin was broke……there wouldn’t be another…….. he was exactly as careful with Franky as he was reckless with Jamie………. must be a tough war to be a general in out there.
Franklin isn’t broke. Frankilinis, well,…Franklin.
Tony?Mo/Duncan hitched their wagon to Franklin a long time ago. Whether it was willingly or reluctantly (on the part of some) I dont know. But past history says they will ride the horse until it can go no longer. Most likely by the time the horse finally shows he’s broken down it will be too late for a change of horses to make a difference.
Who picks the music in that clubhouse? Country, gag me. Play some Springsteen—that is clubhouse music.
Sounds like Holliday will be back pretty soon. But Craig has been hot so it will be replacing a hot bat with hopefully a hot bat. It would be logical to then give Craig a few ABs at third and maybe give Albert a day off until those guys heat up, or until Craig cools off. Never happen of course, so the impact of Holliday returning will not be huge.
So far Berkman is a surprise. There will be first to thirds that shouldn’t happen though.
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