Lance Berkman was the St. Louis Cardinals’ highest-priced offensive acquisition for 2011, signing for $8 million on a one-year contract to man right field. He is effectively replacing Ryan Ludwick, sent to San Diego in trade at the 2010 deadline.
Without recapping Berkman’s entire 12 seasons, he had been a feared hitter for many years, but has recently been in a late-career decline. Last season, he had a strong spring training (.364/.462/.636 – BA/OBP/SLG) but soon faltered.
The same day Ludwick was dealt, July 31, so was Berkman. The latter was traded away from his only home as a major leaguer, Houston, to the New York Yankees. After Berkman’s struggles worsened following the trade, neither club wanted the now 35-year-old back in 2011.
Note that in recent years, the switch-hitter has been demonstrating significantly greater problems batting right-handed against left-handed pitching (.517 OPS in 2010). Some had been calling for Berkman to abandon switch-hitting as far back as 2006.
Over the last week or so of 2011 spring training, Berkman has been in a normal defense and hitting routine, playing in right field and hitting from both sides of the plate, but that was not the case much of camp.
Early on, Berkman experienced left (throwing) elbow issues and a left calf strain. For that reason, he batted left-handed and was the Cardinals designated hitter for much of the spring. In fact, to protect his elbow, he even hit from the left side three times against left-handed pitchers in the March 16 game against Detroit.
Reviewing the bidding, Berkman has been hitting the majority of the time this spring from his left, better side, but is still showing almost no life, with no drive on the ball. While the prevalent concern initially was about his readiness to return to everyday play in the outfield, it is Berkman’s bat that must now be considered the greater worry.
His overall spring line is .200/.216/.280, reflecting only two extra-base hits and just one walk in 51 plate appearances. His home run occurred in his first game of the spring, back on February 28. Berkman drew his one and only Florida walk on March 24, the same day he collected his only double.
Veterans supposedly don’t need the entire spring training period to get prepared, but with the season opener on Thursday, Berkman is running out of time to prove he is ready. Is he injured or worse?
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Berkman can rest against southpaws, with Allen Craig starting those games. Berkman can hit RHPs until 70 years old. He’s got a cheerful personality and can give good interviews to reporters.
The biggest question marks will be defending RF and not hurting himself out there. The Cards can send Jay to RF as a late game defensive replacement. The Berkman gamble will probably work out.
If not, we will have 10 OFs under development at Memphis and Springfield.
Berkman hasn’t been hitting righties either, so what’s your point? His personality isn’t worth $8M.
If Lance were averaging .400, would it mean he would hit .400 during the regular season? Of course not. For accomplished ML players, spring training stats mean nothing. They give negative minded people something to talk about.
Well I don’t put a lot of stock in ST numbers either, but I would not go so far as to say they mean nothing. I want Lance to do well so I am not just griping, I am concerned. Berkman didn’t hit that well during the regular season in 2010 so what makes you think that his ST numbers are meaningless?
The Mendoza line was achieved during regular season games. It was his biological limit. In contrast, Berkman has had 6,000 ML at bats and hit well, consistently across years.
Berkman is not falling apart as a hitter. He did ok in 2010. If TLR matches him against RHPs and gives him offdays, he should be fine.
Mo’s gamble is Lance can run around in RF and not hurt himself. This is not a hitting gamble. It may work out, it may not work out, only time will tell.
Until yesterday, Pujols has 1 HR and was not ripping up the Grapefruit League. Is Pujols going to hit once the bell rings? Yes. So will Berkman, against RHPs.
Plus 2 yesterday Jumbo. I don’t think your optimism regarding Lance is justified, and you shouldn’t be lumping him in with Albert as far as ST predicting the regular season. Lance is 35, and Albert 31 (ahem). So Albert is in prime time while Lance is on the downslope. Career trajectory is reflected in recent year stats.
It is reasonable to expect Lance to continue his decline unless he shows anything this spring, which he hasn’t. It is reasonable to expect Albert to continue to excel no matter what he does this spring.
Based just on a few ABs I saw on TV, I think he has some physical problem inhibiting his hitting. When the trajectory showed he made solid contact, and it didn’t look like it was off the end or down on the label, the ball didn’t jump. In other words, he was hitting it on the sweet spot but not driving it. That might be good news. He might heal up. He doesn’t seem to be having trouble catching up to it, which would be the kiss of death.
Spring OPS: Pujols = .887, Berkman = .496.
2010 OPS: Pujols = 1.011, Berkman = .781.
Career OPS: Pujols = 1.050, Berkman = .954.
Sorry, Jumbo, that isn’t happy news…
What is Albert’s 2011 spring OPS without Volstad?
A .954 career OPS in 5666 ML ABs is outstanding. Its been achieved over many years. Its not a fluke of small n. If Pujols is higher, it only illustrates he belongs in a higher league.
Berkman’s 2011 regular season hitting will hinge on staying healthy while playing RF. If his knees and arm hold out, the history 5,666 ML at bats outpredict 50 during ST 2011.
Jim Edmonds and Reggie Sanders were older than 35 when playing OF for the Cards. Holliday’s contract will take him out past 35. There is little reason to have concern about Berkman’s hitting.
OK, let’s try to connect the dots on some big n’s, full seasons.
2008 = .986
2009 = .907
2010 = .781
2011= .???
IIRC, the Mendoza Line is named after SS Mario. Mario’s career OPS was 507, whereas Lance’s is a splendid .954.
Lance has dipped a little the past couple of years, no surprise. But if the Cards use him carefully, not everyday, he could have a fine year, because Berkman is a great hitter.
“St. Louis traded shortstop Brendan Ryan to Seattle in the off-season after his career-worst .223 batting average. The Cardinals were 17 games over .500 with Ryan, seven games under without him. In his place is Ryan Theriot, whose Cubs went 43-53 with him in the lineup last year, 32-34 without him. ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/27/sports/baseball/27score.html?bl
Good one CC, thanks.
Thank goodness each of those teams had eight other players in their lineups or I might draw a conclusion from that data…
The Nats traded Nyjer Morgan to the Brewers. Now we have to put up with him twice as much. Thanks Nats.
Why the Nats kept around him so long is what amazes me. Given Morgan’s troubles, they probably were stuck with the damaged goods.
I’m surprised the Brewers took him. I know Hart is injured but they may be taking on a big problem that they don’t need.
The Nats kept Elijah Dukes for two years. Morgan is a chior boy, comparatively.
I hope the conversation picks up around here when the season starts cause it sure has been boring here lately.
Still haven’t heard who is going to get the last bullpen spot. I like Augenstein but I bet it will be Salas.
Heard Waino had a scary landing on his plane last night. Fishtailed on slick runway but everyone ok.
Somebody talk some baseball.
I wonder if it is the calm before the storm.
I suspect you are right about the pen, though whichever one goes down knows he will be back before long. Salas had to ride the shuttle last season so it may be Augie’s turn in 2011. In fact, it may begin very soon. TLR has been hinting he may add another reliever for the first road trip. I hope Descalso doesn’t get too comfortable.
The low level of comments (and poll voting) is especially surprising because site visits are up this spring. Lotsa lurkers. Not much chatter right now on the TCN message board, either.
With Westy out and RC and HB being scarce, it is difficult to get a good argument going. I have tried to put the bait out for HB a couple of times but he apparently isn’t biting.
I could say something nasty about Skip but that would be disingenuous of me seeing as how Skip hasn’t done anything to get nasty about, except for that humonguous error that precipitated the 10 run inning by the Mets. but Garcia has to take his licks for that one too.
Cardinals sent Salas out and kept Augenstein. That surprises me.
wow. I had figured Salas would have been a lock. Interesting.
Me too.
Augenstein and Batista are older
Actually, Augenstein is younger than Salas. (Link to my article.)
Oops, sounded good as a theory
Nope can’t use that excuse here. Actually I like this decision just based on ST performance. He will have to keep it up though and that is never a certainty.
Two observations:
Our 4 and 5 starters might be our 1 and 2 starters based upon ST. Wouldn’t it be something if McClellan turns our to be the ace in Wainy’s absense. At least until he wears down later on. It still remains to be seen how he will do going through lineups for the 3rd and 4th time. So far so good for Lohse.
Whoever Tony hits leadoff acts like they’ve never swung a bat before.
I bet TLR and DD would be delighted if they can get six solid innings from K-Mac on the average. Even five an outing would mean 150-plus innings over the season, though. That is a big step up in workload.
I agree, but it also depends on how many innings the other starters can provide. Westbrook can eat 200, and I would guess Carp will too, although 235 and 35 starts again would be too good to be true. Lohse barely made 200 in 2008, his career year. Jaime could come in closer to 200 than last year if he has a nice sophomore year, assuming his arm isn’t about to fall off. But, of course, none of that could happen too.
Speaking of starters and innings, Bronson Arroyo has mono and Dusty is going to let him pitch. I don’t see how he can go more than a few innings. My brother had mono one summer he was a teenager and he couldn’t get out of bed for 3 weeks and was basically out of commission all summer. But Dusty does have a reputation for abusing his pitchers. No wonder they need so many.
I think Lohse could go 200. Garcia is the big if in the equation.
I’d also be extremely worried about him spreading to the rest of the team.
Is mono highly contagious without bodily fluid exchange?
It can be spread like a cold by a person coughing and then touching a doorknob or a towel or things like that.
There has to be closer contact than that.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0001617/
If anyone else comes down with it we will have to question the nature of Reds clubhouse comeraderie.
Don’t they still make kids stay out of school?
Since the victims are usually horny teenagers, probably so. My brother got sick in the summer so no school.
It’s hard to predict, but KMac and Lohse look good. Westbrook looked good in his last start. Carp says he feels great but he hasn’t been Carp, imo. I don’t know what to think about Jaime.
If Theriot is going to hit leadoff he better start getting on base. Otherwise he is no use because he is an avg to below avg glove up the middle and he has not looked good at the plate. At least Berkman has some personality but Theriot seems like a stick in the mud.
Theriot doesn’t have much to be happy about right now. No matter what happens, Berkman has had a great career, as Jumbo reminds us.
Stick in the mud would be a good fit. One of reasons they hired him, no doubt.
My impression of Carp this spring is that his success has been because he knows how to pitch rather than because he has good stuff. In the past he’s had both going for him. Hopefully he will be his old self as the season gets under way.
Garcia, yah, something going on there. One of those things the people who pay the bills aren’t going to be entitled to know about.
Tipping his pitches?
You’d think DD would have noticed something by now if that were the case.
Now you are going to be black balled for telling us Brian.
i don’t think theriot knows where RF is. that won’t bode well for his BA, using half the field.
If I’m not mistaken, that is exactly the sort of thing that has upset Tony and gotten Colby some pine time the last couple years. Will be interesting to see if its ok if its not Colby.
brendan is another who tends to pull everything. skip, JJ and yadi all use the opposite field with their limited power.
the few games i’ve seen, theriot looks early, rolling over pitches (pull grounders). would like to see him let the ball get deeper.
Weather might be an issue for the first series at upper midwest parks. I hear St. Louis may get a couple inches of snow Teusday, with the opener Thursday. I believe Chicago and Minneapolis may get some Friday, although I haven’t checked schedules for those teams.
Moving the start of the season up means more teams have to deal with weather risk. As bad as it is for the playoffs, fewer teams are affected by bad October weather.
Tough for me to say, but Mpls gets what they deserve. Pohlad was too cheap to build a retractable roof.
There’s no roofs in baseball. Shouldn’t be at least.
How far north have you lived, bb?
My ancestors were vikings.
Then you probably know lots of Sven, Ole and Lena jokes, eh?
Even if it does snow Tuesday, it will be gone by Thursday. It will be nippy though. I will be enjoying the game from the warmth of my living room.
Could mess up the Cards-Redbirds exhibition. Speaking of that, anything on who Springfield’s starter will be?
Kevin Thomas. But with the weather the way it is, Lohse may stay behind so maybe Thomas will end up starting for the other Cardinals!
No official decision yet, but it is looking more and more like the Tuesday night exhibition in Springfield may be canceled. (Edit: Later in the morning, it was.)
I just finished watching the Cards preview on FSMW. Some observations:
1. I didn’t need to see Waino’s scar.
2. David Freese had dolphin for lunch. He will lose the Flipper fans.
3. Was Berkman buttoning or unbuttoning his shirt? Wait……I don’t think I want to know.
4. What did Motte say his teammates were calling him?
5. TLR missed a spot with the hair dye.
I missed the show, but I can guess about #4 as “Otter”. On #1, did they show elbow, leg or both? I got to see the scars and brace, too.
Some of the others I will leave alone…
The elbow. It was nasty. I’m glad they didn’t show the leg.
Otter sounds about right. Where did that come from?
I don’t know for sure as I never asked. M-otte-r would seem a good guess.
That is original. I thought it might have something to do with the way he behaves on the mound.
I hope the dolphin comment was said in jest.
Dolphin, as is Dorado, is another name for Mahi-mahi.
Delicious.
When I am in the Caribbean there is always one American who flips out when they see “dolphin sandwich” written on the chalk menu on the wall of a beach bar.
Two different animals. Mahi mahi is dolphinfish, a fish, obtaining oxygen from water with gills. Dolphins are mammals, taking air directly into their lungs. I have no idea which animal is in a dolphin sandwich.
He did not have mahi mahi he had a dolphin sandwich which is the mammal dolphin not the fish. I have a friend who used to live in Jupiter and I have been to that restaurant and they serve mammal dolphin. A lot of restaurants in that area serve it.
Berkman ends his day and spring with an 0-for-2 including one K; .182.
As pitiful as Berkman’s BA is, the more disturbing thing is that he out hit our leadoff hitter. At least Theriot can take a walk. Berkman’s .196 OBP reeks.
The $8M means we will see a lot of Lance regardless of performance. I hope he comes around.
Berkman had been amazingly consistent in recent spring trainings. His OPS last spring was 1.098. It was 1.017 in 2009 and 1.039 in 2008.
This spring? How about .451? That is not SLG, that is OPS.
I’m guessing he is hurting somewhere
That is the option in the balloting that I selected.
Its the elbow. If he isn’t able to feed when the fans flood in…………he will break soon after. They let Garcia back off of some of Dave’s “suggestions”………slider reappears, validating the change up and curve. Wise…..but dangerous to his longevity.
San Diego’s scouting and Pitcher preparations are first rate……… that will cause problems for AP and Colby. ……. If we don’t win the first two series…………Giants will fix us up real good. Theriot is a huge liability at this point………he needs “luck”……..lets hope it happens. Tony already knows Punto is going to be his SS.
AP’s is in incredible shape…….swinging well. His had position, as forward as it is, has a purpose. He seems easily vexed at this point though because his motivations are so transparent. If Berkman can’t chew, and Colby stays greedy, and Theriot isn’t allowed to fail if he struggles……4th place if we’re lucky.
If Lohse just throws a pen tomorrow, he will be the Friday backup if Thursday washes out.
You’re right about Punto maybe ending up as the SS. Tyler Greene makes a career out of not rising to the occasion when opportunity knocks. If its Descalso who goes down, then some combination of Theriot, Greene and Punto will be two bench guys useless as pinch hitters.
Interesting analysis, WC. Thanks for sharing. What part of the arm is the slider hardest on, elbow or shoulder?
For the “Santana – Liriano – Garcia ” arm slot…….its the elbow…..thats why the first one wore out. Santana avoided trouble for years……. until he signed into the goldmine…………… Liriano tried to survive but couldn’t. Thats why the Giants traded him in the first place. He has attempted to come back with a more conservative approach until he signs a deal anyway….thats hit and miss… Garcia has already had the surgery……and has a long ways to go for a payday…………… He got caught up in adjustment loop………couldn’t break through. So they backed him off to a more familiar approach, which has pluses for the team……. but negatives for his career. You can eat through that new ligament…just like the first one.
I wonder what the TJS record is? Seems like I read about someone getting it three times and I think Izzy may have had it twice. Losing a year plus each time is the rough part.
The issue is………..you can’t insure it…profitably…… That negates any of the “big contract” investment scenarios.
Wainwrights next contract will reflect this. The new ligament is just as good as the old, but that doesn’t change the reality of why you are wearing them out………… Adam would be a fool if he pressed the envelop on his return……that is the only thing that would keep him from being very rich………… he was just positioning himself with the team I’d say by suggesting he was going to press his rehab. They would be stupid to encourage that…………
Happy to see you back Westy. BTW we don’t play on Friday, just thought I would mention it.
Lohse is looking good. Hope he can keep it up.
I have to disagree about the 4th place prediction, though I share your pessimism I don’t see the team ending below 3rd. Houston and Pittsburgh don’t have a chance, and though the Cubs have improved their pitching, their defense is in trouble and the offense is sluggish at best.
Regarding the Cubs, Mike Quade looks like a good leader, but he has more messes to clean up than just Carlos Silva. I saw that Joe Strauss picked the Cubs to win the division. I don’t see it, but it certainly is drawing attention.
You know what I think about Joe Strauss.
Why anyone listens to him is beyond me.
They schedule the bye day for opening day rain-outs CRD…….everyone does……. Even if there was a substantial delay tomorrow……….. Tony isn’t going to drag Carpenter through the endless warm up scenarios. Lohse started the 2008 season as the bye day fill in.
I like most all of these threads………………this is a good one………
I like most all of these threads………………this is a good one prediction of AP coming problems………