What was yesterday a strength for the St. Louis Cardinals, their rotation, has now become a source of concern.
With the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, second-guessers are already noting that it would have been best for the Cardinals and Adam Wainwright if the pitcher had proceeded with ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) reconstruction, otherwise known as Tommy John surgery, last fall.
The standard procedure in such cases is to try the rehab route first. That is what was chosen for what was diagnosed as a partial tear. Wainwright was optimistic coming into camp, but the reality is that his elbow didn’t last through two weeks of practice.
If Tommy John surgery is required, Wainwright would have missed the entire 2011 season either way, but October 2010 surgery would have given him an important five-month head start on his 12-month minimum rehab.
As it is, one would have to assume that Wainwright may not be fully ready to step back into a full workload in the rotation to begin the 2012 season.
From this come some interesting contract considerations. This winter, the Cardinals will have to decide what to do with Chris Carpenter’s $15 million option for the 2012 season, with the alternative of paying a $1 million buyout.
Would the club head into the Albert Pujols’ negotiations this fall and the 2012 campaign with neither of their co-aces on the mound? Do they believe they can they afford all three stars? Will that be viewed as enough?
Before the acquisition and re-signing of Matt Holliday, Pujols’ mantra was all about having a competitive team around him, and that it was not about the money. Might the Wainwright injury and future plans for Carpenter affect the Pujols negotiations? FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal is among those already fearing the worst.
Wainwright will make $6.5 million this season. Assuming TJS is in the offing, he will be on the disabled list the entire year. There is also a $21 million, two-year option in place for 2012 and 2013, with conditions. The options were triggered by Wainwright’s top five Cy Young Award finish last season, but hinge on him finishing 2011 off the disabled list. The possibility of the latter now seems out the window.
The timing of his surgery is probably irrelevant in the financial context, however. Given the high success rate from TJS, it seems likely the Cardinals will pick up the below-market value options on Wainwright’s 2012 and 2013 seasons.
The remainder of the rotation stacks up as follows.
Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse are under contract for 2012 and there is a mutual 2013 option for Westbrook as well. Jaime Garcia will remain under team control through 2014 before becoming eligible for free agency.
Of the big five, only Lohse will not be a TJS survivor assuming Wainwright proceeds as expected. Carpenter had the surgery in 2007 with Westbrook and Garcia having undergone the procedure the next year.
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Well, this is horrible news. I don’t think that the Cardinals can seriously compete without Wainwright in 2011. Not to sound like a broken record, but I hope that McClellan finally gets a chance to start.
Picking up Wainwright’s options is probably a no-brainer. Given that Carpenter didn’t come close to earning his salary in 2010, I seriously doubt that he’ll have a better shot in 2012. Pass.
Carpenter’s option was always contingent on his health…………… if he is healthy, and thats not more than a 50/50 at this point, they would be taking it anyhow………now they pray they can…
or not…..who knows…… if they do the surgery in Nov………it seriously impacts there AP negotiating posture……..it forces them to sign help or become a target for a Lozano/AP complaint.
Hindsight BS………….. they hid the risks until the market collapsed…..after they got out…..and you better believe it. Familiar pattern……hell yes….. you can sweep my posts this morning if you want. They may be too pointed.
http://new.wavlist.com/soundfx/033/heli-pass2.wav
Why would cards pick up Carpenters option for 15 million in 2012?Agree with Nutlaw…………i like Carp………………..his age and salary……………seems like the Cards could try for a team friendly deal.As for Wainwright……………………..why not wait a while and see what the Doctors find and then decide if Waino will be worth paying that much or if he even can return and resemble the pitcher he was.He`s under contract until the end of 2011 so see what develops.
Crushing, crushing day. Cannot replace an Adam Wainwright- Sorry, couldn’t help the Remember the Titans reference.
KMac gets his chance, but won’t the Cards treat this like last years 5th starter competition? Best man this spring wins? So, you would think Snell, Walters, Lynn, KMac, and gasp, Ottavino have an equal shot?
I don’t care who it is, I just won’t to win, so I won’t say who deserves it at this point. Maybe Waino should have had the surgery in October. I believe we were highly optimistic he would be fine. Also, while down about Waino, I’m glad this happened before the 1st game of ST started, we have 5 weeks at least to get our Cards (ducks) in a row. Much better than opening day/week like has happened to the Cards in the past. Not saying I like it, no, but again I’m not overly sweating it (maybe).
Btw, Brian, I’ve enjoyed reading your Blog the past few months, but this is the first time for me to reply
Could you clarify one thing for me, please? I was under the impression Garcia was part of the “2014″ FA class with Rasmus and KMac, yet you listed him as “Jaime Garcia will remain under team control through 2013 before becoming eligible for free agency”.
Also, one other thing, and this isn’t an attempt to “stir the pot”, but 3 “…” is all that is needed to make ellipses.
Welcome, T8Ball. I am sorry it took a major injury (or was it my careless mistake?) to move you to post!
You are right about Garcia. I made the correction above. Thanks for catching it.
Glad to finally jump into the blog, I work so much, that I usually get a late night chance to read the blog and by that time, most of the comments have covered any thoughts I might have had.
Is picking up Waino’s 2012 and 2013 options a good faith move? In hopes of extending his contract towards 2015-16 at perhaps a discount?
Since Waino already had below market terms in return for security ala Pujols, I expect he will be looking for a huge contract next time. As he should.
This is my worst nightmare come true. I am devastated beyond my endurance. The season is over for me before it has started. I don’t see how the Cardinals can overcome this.
I knew you would take it hard, crdswmn, and for good reason.
I will still watch and try to enjoy the games but it won’t be the same without Waino. The baseball gods are particularly mean this year.
Maybe Yadi will have a career year and cheer you up crdswmn.
Maybe Lohse will go 15-6 again and vindicate Brian for sponsoring his BBRef page.
I wonder if the medical staff missed something with Wainy’s arm last fall. Same thing with Punto. He had persistant groin problems last year, was on the DL for it, and hardly played all year. Then he shows up here, passes his physical, collects his 750K guarantee, and needs surgery to fix the injury he seems to have had for a year. Seems like I’ve seen this material before.
Frequent tearing do to too many breaking pitches BB. Every time he rests or off season, they try to heal……..scare tissues isn’t as elastic………. it is well know……and if I recall Palleta said the tear had healed and had stable scare tissue……….. It broke loose at the right time from a money standpoint………………
‘Broke loose’ the first time he threw to hitters since last year.
. . . . . . or. . . . .
as soon as all the expensive starters were signed.
Whichever, it opens the door for this year’s Garcia. Or this year’s Estaban Yan, we have one you know, can’t think of the name. It will be hard for Tony/Dunc to resist trotting the creaking relic out there.
Also, will make emerging leadership all the more welcome.
Bad news on the BBRef pages. Prices went through the roof this year so I am bowing out. Brendan Ryan went from $10 to $160. Go figure. No thanks.
If you look at Brendan’s BBRef page now the asking price is $260. Last night after your post I happened to notice they were asking $105 for Garcis’s page, but now it’s at $95. So I think they are going with that dynamic pricing like the Cards.
Give me a break. I like the site and want to support it, but not at those prices. I saw very few click throughs, but they base their prices on page views.
Catch me talking St. Louis Cardinals baseball with Matt Perrault and Ken Miller on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines today, February 23 at 4:30 p.m. CDT. Streamed at kxno.com.
Adam Wainwright rhp
4 years/$15M (2008-11), plus 2012, 2013 club options
* 4 years/$15M (2008-11), plus 2012, 2013 club options
o signed extension with St. Louis 3/20/08
o $0.75M signing bonus
o 08:$0.5M, 09:$2.6M, 10:$4.65M, 11:$6.5M, 12:$9M club option, 13:$12M club option
o replaced 1 year/$0.448M deal for 2008 renewed 3/4/08 ($0.246M in minors)
o 2012, 2013 options guaranteed with top 5 finish in 2010 or 2011 Cy Young vote (met 11/16/10)
o 2012 club option increases to $10M with 2010 or 2011 Cy Young
————————————————————–
o club must exercise 2012 and 2013 options at same time
———————————————————–
o award bonuses: $0.25M for Cy Young ($0.1M for 2nd or 3rd in Cy Young vote, $50,000 for 4th or 5th place)
That clause between the lines becomes a real issue………… it means if they don’t activate both numbers…….Waino is a free agent…………….. he could actually make more money at that point by signing a 4yr deal somewhere……………… this isn’t going to cost him in the end…………
He is heavily insured so I’m guessing BD is going to play an angle………
I don’t see the intrigue. If this is a normal TJS recovery, the Cardinals will probably pay $21 million for less than two seasons of Waino. If the hammer negotiators among us think the Cards aren’t able to keep him long term, they can start with the ‘trade him while they can’ talk…
Looks like JS reads your Blog………………..works late……
Wainwright’s injury is a big setback. Pitching is a risky business and such things happen.
Now we know why Mo was keen to hand out big bucks on free agent Westbrook this past winter. Mo knew Adam’s elbow was a question mark. We need 200 innings and some Ws out of Jake.
The Birds have an under-rated field of candidates to provide another starter: Walters, Lynn, Brandon Dickson, McClellan, Ian Snell. We may need them, if another pitcher goes down.
Might add to that list… Valdes, Tallet, Batista, Ottavino and Augenstein… heck, we’re likely to see a number of them, if not a dumpster dive about the time teams start making cuts.
I wonder if Mo has Suppan’s number? I know he signed a minors deal with SF, but maybe he has a clause where he’s freed if not with the big club by a certain time. Suppan did a very respectable job for us last year once he got stretched out.
Soup did a nice job in very careful usage, but I really hope the team doesn’t go down the tired veteran stopgap path again in 2011.
Mo announce Paletta as the surgeon………….. that seems very odd to me…… where is Waino’s agent??????? Seems like a very ghoulish offer by the Cardinals……. for a number of reasons…. I go to a hero……with video…….like AP…… for the future…………..
WC, do you know who did Carpenter’s TJS? How about Garcia’s? Take a guess………….
Yes I do…………… What happens Brian, if an independent does it, and he comes out say, this thing was really bad…..the baby was dead……etc……. AP came out of his surgery with a smile, no problem, and didn’t talk to the press again for 3 months, remember?…………
Palleta’s diagnosis, with all the implications surrounding the Pujols negotiation, was……your good to go………….. not so much now I’d guess………. and no witnesses if he does the surgery……. bad career move……………. a stinking career move………. Lozano does it differently…Boras does it differently…………or should I say “did”………
Need I remind you that there were “unnamed” observers in the operating room in Georgia…….
Need I remind you that Garcia was uninsured……..and that Carpenter likely had little insurance because of his history………… and that Wainwright was one of the first signings of the new GM (BD)………….likely well insured……wild guess there………..
It is now revealed that there really are no contractual complications surrounding this……… they are compelled to pay under any scenario………. making that the actual decision not to intervene in November, was based on other criteria………………(FEB Headline) Pujols is headed to FA even in the face of a strong team commitment by the Cardinals……………now that will read next year……… Cardinals are expecting Wainwright back in June 2012, so see no reason to be looking for rotation help………..that headline right next to their losing offer to Pujols……………. keep in mind the type of money we are talking about……………… Palleta may do a fine job on Wainwrights elbow………… but that is hardly the point………..