As most Americans know, Groundhog Day is a long-standing national tradition which began back in the 18th Century with its roots in ancient Europe. If upon emerging from his burrow on February 2, the groundhog sees its shadow, six more weeks of winter will follow.
In the case of Albert Pujols, the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman has also emerged from a winter that for the most part kept him out of the spotlight. That has changed with his impending arrival in spring training camp and the expiration of his self-imposed negotiating window.
It seems that when Pujols saw his shadow this month, the conclusion to be drawn is that ten months of hard winter is ahead.
That is the minimum time I estimate it will take for the free agent to be to test the market and ultimately make his decision where to play baseball starting in 2012.
Without rehashing current events in detail, suffice to say that the player and his team appear to be far enough apart in their contract negotiations that a deal will not be completed any time soon. An open question is how chilly the relationship between the two parties may become over the upcoming months.
Pujols has been clear that he does not want to discuss contractual matters while focusing on playing baseball. Of all the related story lines, this is the one I most suspect will be followed. I predict the Cardinals will respect Pujols’ wishes accordingly.
Following that scenario, the next window and last exclusive period for the Cardinals to talk money would be between the end of their season and five days following the conclusion of the World Series. While the two sides could come to an agreement then, I think it is highly unlikely. Having gone that far, Pujols would be expected take the final step to determine what he is truly worth.
At that point, he would hit the open market.
Pujols has said in the past he does not fear free agency and why should he? The Cardinals seem prepared to wait and react to what Pujols can find elsewhere.
The free agent mating process could easily take several months and will likely tie up the high end of MLB’s free agent market this coming off-season. Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder may have to wait until Pujols’ fate is decided but should benefit from being the consolation prize.
Based on a typical winter, it will likely stretch until December and perhaps into January for the Pujols saga to play out. This year’s premier free agent, Cliff Lee, agreed to terms with Philadelphia on December 14. The winter prior, Matt Holliday did not decide to return to the Cardinals until January 5.
The bottom line is that it appears Pujols’ considerable shadow will cover most if not all of the entire remaining 2011 calendar year. How the player himself and his team react throughout the season has become the next major unknown.
In parallel to the Bill Murray movie Groundhog Day, the same questions will be asked every day for months, so we may as well get used to it.
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Could we possibly see a last minute signed contract by Albert prior to Wednesday WC?
You are a funny guy!
Well they did bump the stop negotiating time back one day for Stan Musials ceremony. Why do that unless you thought that may be the difference maker? Throw me in with HB and BW, up to my neck in kool aid. It feels good in here. There is a certain soothing feeling when I close my eyes and feel like everything will work out for the best.
Just put down the Koolaid and back away.
It would serve no purpose……….they have been predictable because I see their play…… The are going to try and cook AP from day one………. as he bakes…… smart players will help themselves. BD knows exactly where the economy is going to be in 2012………it isn’t about baseball……its about business. BD is playing a win/win……….. its about how much at this point……
IF BD knew where the economy would be in 2012 he wouldn’t be worrying about a few hundred million to Pujols.
This isn’t Brazil…….. he can’t move that kind of money on shore without all the flags going up. He can’t stand the scrutiny. Oil will be well over a hundred a barrel again by 2012.
If the Cards are at 7/210, they have exceeded the Westimate of 190. They are in the ballpark at least. I am giddy with excitement. I smell a compromise coming.
Sorry BB…….it isn’t going to happen……..IF.. the team gave in to a 7th year, it would have been at the 28 per year number……. it isn’t going over 200……he isn’t signing….. Edmond’s isn’t playing.
The are just trying to minimize the negative cost of their business plan. Its business……
You’re a nattering nabob of negativism Westy. They already know the numbers.
who is they
Both sides. 10 is not happenning now or next year, not without a PED drip mounted to Alberts cap. 7 is not happening either. That’s what Bill gave Matt and Matt is not on the same plane. Both sides know all that. There is not all that much in between.
Things to think about;
No matter where AP ends up……he will have to run the bases this year…….to get there.
There is an appearance at this time that AP isn’t to happy with the Cardinals…… I can think of quite a few reasons that could be true. Bottom line…….you can’t ask for big money ANYWHERE, if you are perceived as a malcontent……. so he will/must bide his time.
The silent Yadi is harboring a few secrets……….. he isn’t a likely poker player it would seem….a little emotional lately maybe……… sees the writing on the wall that suggests he might loose his “daddy”…………
BD will come back from his photo op………dripping with Red and baseball nobility…….. He isn’t going to chance Mo in the pilots seat on Wednesday.
Here’s Alberts 10 year deal.
One competing baseball executive believes that the Cubs will offer Pujols the Alex Rodriguez deal, meaning $27.5MM per year over ten years, tweets Jon Heyman of SI.
If Albert were to joing the Cubs, I might have to join the RC Posse, and start drinking that bitter RC Kool-Aid…
Funny I was thinking if Albert joined the Cubs i may have to become a Cardinals fan.
This is not rocket science. One organization sees an opportunity to make life a little bit rougher for their biggest rival, so they do.
Heyman just repeats what he hears. He also said this a few days ago about Pujols and the Cards.
He has the rumors covered from all sides so no matter what happens, he can say he nailed it.
I have a feeling you will be right Brian, Albert will eventually sign with the Cards for whatever the market says his value is. Somewhere north of 27.5 mil a year.
My wild guess is that the problem is years, not dollars. If another team gives 10 and the Cards hold to seven, even at the same AAV, it will put Pujols on the spot.
He will get 8 years plus 2 mutual option years at 27.5+. There is your compromise.
Get Mo on the phone.
Heyman = Westie
Can you imagine what kind of reception Albert would get at Busch Stadium if he went over to the Dark Side? Cardinals fans are generally well behaved but Albert defecting to the Cubs could put a lot of people over the edge.
Well if somebody is into wanting to be worshipped by people then what better place to go than to the Cubs? What if Albert were to be able to be a part of a World Series winning team from Chicago. He would be more popular than GOD.
Does that beat being God in STL?
Nope. Albert isn’t leaving. I have said it before, there is no other team that Albert could go to where he would make the rules and do what he wants like he does in St. Louis. He’ll let the other clubs jack the dollars up to a record level and then he will sign for those dollars in St. Louis. I believe he knows that he most likely will never see another World Series but I’m pretty sure thats not at the top of his list of priorities. And he will be loved like Cardinals fans love Stan.
The Tony interview is very candid……………… try to read it with some understanding. They let Tony draft all these veterans…….so that they could pay AP large dollars……….going into an economic slide? Absolutely nothing has changed………..its play ball time……….besides, you really think BD is going to make it look like he is conceding to Lozano and the Union?
He is headed to FA……….that is the plan.
TLR trying to deflect criticism away from Pujols by blaming the Union. Jeff Passan from Yahoo spoke with Michael Weiner, head of the Players’ Assoc. Says no pressure being applied to Pujols and Lozano. Will link his article when posted.
Which set of lawyers do you believe? (sorry crdswmn!)
The ones with their mouths shut!
And dont forget TLR has a law degree (although I dont think he’s a lawyer)
I just read some of TLR’s quotes. A day after Tony stated that he knew nothing about the negotiations he was ripping the players association. Tony said he hasn’t spoken to Mo or BD. So where is Tony getting his information? Tony trying to take the heat off of his boy,
You’re right on it Brian. Tony has/is prepared to deal with what is occurring. That is what he signed up for. DeWitt has won the PR campaign……….. Lozano could care less…..he knows what is going on. The Union must catch the collusion red handed to make a grievance stick…….it has been well prepared……………..Next year, AP will have to decided if he is going to take Washington type money……..or play baseball…….with Tony still coaching………. It is beginning to look like you will never see a number here from either side……………………
Boras sold Werth by pointing out that it was all the Nationals could do was to make a defensive move to slow Philadelphia down………. they have the money to offer………that Pujols, by refusing it……leaves no evidences……….. You won’t see another 200 million dollar contract.
Neither.
Mets GM Sandy Alderson says it’s “unlikely” that the Mets discuss an extension with Jose Reyes before Opening Day, according to ESPNNewYork’s Adam Rubin. Reyes is set to hit free agency after the season and has said he’s open to a long-term deal. The $1 billion lawsuit against the Mets owners won’t prevent the Mets from signing Reyes to a multiyear deal, Alderson said.
This remains the story of the day………………… Wilpons mix 1 billion in funny money (profits) surrounding their baseball operation……….sinking how much????????? into tax free stadium bonds…
In order to blunt that inquiry, Selig is going to have to act…………….. act how?? should be interesting…………
How about this wild idea…………… Dodgers fans will be seeing 6 games in throwback uniforms, all having Brooklyn written across their chests………. they’re pissed………..
Dodgers are in trouble……..solution……….bankrupt the Mets…….send the renamed Franchise to LA……… Dodger divorce problems resolves with the sale to NY investors who move them into City Field. …. Comcast/Fox dissolve some lucrative Sports networks in the same fell swoop……….a deal like that would make Selig a super hero………….. stop the investigation…….. Oh yeah……the pissed Dodgers fans get a famous ball player to sooth their broken hearts and fill their 60 thousand seat stadium……………….. I wonder……….all of those variables are present and active………… by 2012 season? Man that would be a tight squeeze……election year??? I wonder…………………………..
Bottom line…………LA isn’t liking the McCourts………. NY hates the Mets…………. Lazono must see something I don’t………….. BD breathes a big sigh of relief………….on many fronts……… must have been the Jalapeño chips before bed………….
Just say no Westy.You can do it.
Just trying to cheer everyone up 52………………. hows that for a story/distraction……….
this team win the division going away……..without AP……….with him…I seriously doubt it.
Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt, Jr. and general manager John Mozeliak are expected to address the situation shortly after Wednesday’s 11 a.m. CST deadline passes. Pujols may not arrive in camp until Thursday.
May not arrive???????? Is Dan Lozano going to be there???????