A look ahead to the top projected stories across the Cardinal Nation in 2011.
First, we reviewed at the top 20 stories affecting the St. Louis Cardinals this past year.
Now it is time for my annual predictions for the top story lines of the coming year as well.
Right up front, I will set aside the easiest and most logical entry – the results of the 2011 team on the field. The nature of that story has yet to be determined, shaped by the items discussed here and many more plotlines not yet developed.
Another top story I will not be including is the (potential) return of Tony La Russa for 2012. While this is not done, I suspect the story will only rank in the top five if the manager decides NOT to come back for at least one more season. I think that chance is small.
As I developed my list and rankings, I considered the staying power of the story, how long it might remain in the headlines as well as its potential impact on the 2011 Cardinals and the organization’s future. In reality, number one dwarfs the other four in importance this year.
Without further ado, here are my projected top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2011. As always, your comments are welcome below.
1. Pujols’ pending payday
I suppose it would be considered a major cop-out to make this my top stories one through five, but especially if Albert Pujols reaches free agency, it will almost certainly be on top. While I felt the same thing a year ago, this story should run out of shelf life before December 31.
If one wants to think positive and believe Pujols will remain a Cardinal, the next set of questions to consume is for how long and how much? Will it cover the remainder of Pujols’ career? Will there be significant deferred money? Will it be front- or back-end loaded?
Whatever is decided will be a major part of the franchise for years to come. While it may or may not become the biggest contract ever, I bet it will be the biggest percentage of a team’s payroll ever taken up by one player. Think about that.
2. Berkman’s stand
With the benefit of hindsight, the signing of veteran first baseman Lance Berkman to play right field for the 2011 Cardinals may prove to be either have been a bold move or a bad risk. The club has had decent success in taking on end-of-career hitters previously successful elsewhere, stars such as Will Clark and Larry Walker.
At least in the latter case, however, the collective wear and tear on the player led to him being unable to play a full state of games and eventually a date with retirement earlier than expected.
Will Berkman, previously of bulky build and with balky knees, be able to endure the rigors of daily play in the outfield? At 35 years of age, can the switch-hitter find magic in a once-powerful bat that has been in decline?
If Berkman can’t at least replace the offense of the traded Ryan Ludwick, where will that leave the 2011 Cardinals offense? And even if Berkman delivers, how could they afford or replace his production in 2012?
3. Third and last time for third base?
After two years of failed gambles on David Freese at third base and no viable back up plan, at least currently, the Cardinals seem ready to give it a third try. If Freese’s fragile ankles fail him again this coming season, it could very easily mean major problems for the 2011 club. It could also signal the end of the Freese experiment.
Looking at this from the positive side, even if Freese has a relatively injury-free 2011, would one good year erase all the memories of two bad ones? It may take more than one season for him to fully shed the injury-prone tag.
At least the organization may have a couple of 2012 options coming up through the ranks in Matt Carpenter and Zack Cox. I expect they will be the starters at Triple-A and Double-A, respectively and should be two of the most closely watched prospects in the system in 2011.
4. Keeping Carp
Speaking of Carpenters, will Matt and Chris Carpenter ever become teammates? Chris is a cornerstone of the St. Louis Cardinals, a former Cy Young Award winner and ace of the staff. Yet by April 2012, Carp will be 37 years old. He has yet to string together three consecutive healthy seasons in his career, though 2011 could finally be it.
More importantly, will the Cardinals have the money and interest in picking up their 2012 option on Chris? The club option is for $15 million of which $2 million is deferred, identical to 2011. Instead, the Cardinals could buy out the option for $1 million.
If the organization feels they have the cash after signing Pujols, they could approach Carpenter about a more-team friendly extension to cover his later years, perhaps superseding the 2012 option year.
A third Carpenter in the system, reliever David Carpenter, was dealt to Houston in the Pedro Feliz trade last August. A Chris Carpenter trade would seem doubly unlikely since he has spent ten years in the majors, the last five with the Cardinals. That means he could not be moved without his consent.
Letting him walk seems unthinkable, yet it must be at least considered in the financial context of the post-Pujols contract Cardinals.
5. Who follows Franklin?
With the core of the Cardinals either under contract or option for 2012, one position that may turn over is the closer’s job, held by Ryan Franklin since 2008. While Franklin says he may return in 2012, his hold on the ninth inning may slip if his performance declines.
The player groomed for the position, Chris Perez, is now closing for Cleveland, but the Cardinals do not lack candidates. Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte have major league seasoning while youngsters Eduardo Sanchez and Adam Reifer have a year to look for an opening to burst onto the scene.
Who can forget that the Cardinals chased former Rockies closer Brian Fuentes and thought they had him prior to the 2009 season? They avoided dropping at least $15 million in the process and hopefully, will not again look in the free agent direction for ninth inning help any time soon.
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Solid choices… except maybe Franklin. That only becomes a big deal if he fails and has to be replaced in-season. Don’t see that happening. I might have picked something more generic, like “The Injury Bug’ instead. Injuries, especially to key pitchers or run producers, are always top of the list factors in season outcome.
Albert, Berkman, Freese, Carp… I’m with you on those… What happens with Albert is going to affect/shape this team for many years.
To be honest, I wrote this before WWU when Franklin said he may come back in 2012. Still, he isn’t getting younger and I think the closer position could become a problem/transition in 2011. A generic “injury bug” seemed too vague to me.
This needs to be said……………. after watching the Championship series….and the world series…..
does anyone actually believe that Franklin is “competitively viable in that environment?
If 50/50 is viable………. Frankie could not be thought to be any better than 20/80.
It is one of the peculiar signs in my eyes, of BD’s/ Cardinal conditioning………….Tony and Dave know this……….they also know there is nothing they can do about it……………..they agreed to his role at a time when the disintegrating Izzy needed to be pried out of there foolish hands……all within the parameters of the Chris Duncan fiasco which “tainted” their reputations………..BD hung them on it, saving himself big money by todays market standards………….same dynamic is true today.
WC — You’re off base here. Franklin’s save percentage last year, 93.1%, was 2nd best in the NL behind either Bell or Wilson. In 2009, he won Fireman of the Year with a save percentage in the high 80′s. So what if he doesn’t throw 100, he’s a pitcher, not a thrower… an effective veteran pitcher whose cost compared to so-called ‘elite’ closers is moderate and an asset to the team.
I’m so far off base Tex……….that I damn well stole the next one too………………..
With full playoff preparation for a ninth inning………… he is easily solved………………….. His five pitches make for a good setup man………….. He cannot beat the Giants and the Phillies for money…………. they are equipped for the ninth………we aren’t…………sorry……….
Picked off, more likely!
Sorry WC, but the relevant performance metrics tell a story different than yours.
relevant performance metrics………………………amazing………………. I can say this with perfect confidence…………………I hope you’re right…………that would be nice……….I like Frankie…….
No Cardinal pitcher will take a + number against any Philly pitcher in a playoff…..no mater if Wainwright wins 30 games…..against their 3rd starter…….with Franklin closing……. in Vegas and Atlantic City anyway……….
I agree with HB. Franklin has been putting up very impressive numbers over his past two seasons. Very impressive.
Punto deal is done. Nice work, WC!
Looks like TLR/Mo aren’t comfortable with the idea of Greene/Descalso as IF reserves. The team had a weak, inexperienced, bench to start last year. This appears to be a move to keep from repeating that mistake.
Reports I’ve read say that ‘Hands of Stone’ Greene was playing winter ball and stinking it up on defense. Punto may only have a .247 career BA, but that’s better than Greene’s .222 career BA…
TLR isn’t comfortable with Greene or Descalso because………wait for it………they are not washed up veterans. Even mentioning bringing up minor leaguers makes TLR’s hair part on the side.
Yeah sure………………..thats why Jon Jay,Mitch Boggs,Jason Motte,Garcia,Rasmus, Wainwright and others all never got a chance because TLRs wanting washed up veterans according to the conspiracy crowd .
Be real crdswmn… over two partial seasons Greene has a .222 career batting average and has a .950 fielding percentage. Descalso has 11 games in MLB to his credit with a meager 37 total plate appearances. Is that the IF bench strength needed for a championship team? Do we really want a bench with 4 guys on it that have never played a full season in MLB?
It’s not just TLR (which seems to be your answer for EVERYTHING)… it’s about performance, experience and capability.
Greene was a #1 draft pick, a few picks after Colby. Where do they stand in relation to each other on team impact? Has Greene delivered the goods? Hasn’t he had plenty of opportunity? At some point a player has to perform, live up to his billing, or get out of the way for a guy who do the job at an acceptable level. If Greene had shown any ability to hit and field at this level the team would never have signed Theriot.
HBT-you nailed it .Well said. Right on .
All but two of those you listed is a pitcher. DD is the pitching guy, TLR is the position guy. Rasmus? TLR just hasn’t succeeded in getting rid of him……..yet. Jay? Let’s see how much he plays this year with Berkman in the OF.
It is not a conspiracy, BW it is a fact. TLR prefers vets to minor leaguers, this has been pointed out time and time again by practically every sports writer who has written on the subject.
Can’t get MLB experience when the manager won’t play you HB. You are trying the old argument in the vacuum again. It never works. TLR understands Catch 22 all too well.
Won’t get playing time hitting .222 either. Which came first, chicken or the egg?
Bottom line is that TLR will play young guys who contribute. Jay is a perfect example of this, just last year. Same with Jaime. Given an inexperienced, underforming, rook or a veteran with a track record… TLR picks the vet, as would the manager of just about any contending team.
When a squad has no hope for post-season play, managers often play youngsters and get a look at the future. It doesn’t matter if they play poorly and the team loses because they’re not going anywhere anyhow.
Not sure that comp is totally fair HB. Punto has 2,818 career PAs and Greene has just 238. In the last two years, since both have been in the bigs, Punto is hitting .232 and Greene .222, but Greene has a slightly higher OPS. Which one has the greater potential for offensive upside?
Talking to some Twinks fans today, they describe Punto as a Miles-type guy, one who does well as a role-player… less well when playing every day. That makes him a perfect TLR-type bench guy and one who’s likely to be more productive offensively than Greene and whole lot more steady on defense.
You can talk upside but at some point a player has to deliver. Tyler’s been in the organization since 2005, has been handed multiple opportunities at SS in MLB and hasn’t gotten the job done. He’s got speed, a little pop, and nice range. But he’s not been able to hit for average and has very bad hands. That’s my read on him.
The OPS difference likely reflects that little bit of pop… but I’d have to check SLG and OBP separately to be able to tell… one of the things I dislike about OPS. To know what it really means, you have to look at its constituent elements.
Here’s a comparison of career numbers… Read as Category (Nick/Tyler): Batting Average (.247/.222), OBP (.321/.300), SLG (.322/.325), and OPS (.644/.625). As suspected, Greene has a slight advantage in slugging, disadvantages elsewhere.
If I did that two-year comparison, CC would accuse me of inconsistency.
Why would you want to use 2 yr numbers when you can do career numbers that include Puntos career year of 2008. You are nothing if not consistent Tex – and i dont mean that in a good way.
For those who are wondering Punto´s OPS the last 2 years is below Greene´s and well below his mark last year. Tex, would never use a comparison that was not to his advantage. In that manner he is consistant.
But for wht it is worth, i have no problem with Punto for $700K — but it just points out even more so how stupid the Theroit signing at $3.3 million was. I mean really stupid.
Good deal.Another option for depth.Good defense.
…but worse bat than Aaron Miles. Fine as a reserve, but if forced to start, he should hit tenth.
Brian-I doubt Punto was signed because of his bat skills.Versatility.Good defense and a bit of speed.As for Miles……………………..he was lacking defensively at several position IMO.I still wouldn`t be shocked if Miles ended up with a NRI with the Cards.
Since Punto can’t hit from either side, switchhitting doesn’t offer much. I am fine with him as a late-inning defensive replacement, but he is neither a pinch-hitter nor a regular. All indications I have heard is that Miles will not be back for a third time.
TLR must be in old veteran euphoria. So, can’t wait to see what he does with HIS team.
Now if the Cards would just take care of that other signing. ………
Crdswmn-sure am glad that TLR is the ONLY manager to put together HIS team.What a original idea.
Funny, somehow I thought putting the team together was the GM’s job. Silly me.
Crdswmn-and the GM does it with no input at all from the manager.Yeah silly you.
Input? What input? You mean give me a team of old fossils and I’ll sign on for another year? That input? :p
I’m willing to take bets on how long Colby lasts………..
Crdswmn-the Cards 40 man roster has 13 players at 30 years old or more.
7 players in that age group are on 1 year or expiring contracts.a few more have option or arbitration.Don`t look now but the Cards are getting younger bit by bit.Are you still waiting for Alan Grant to show up?
After TLR gets rid of Colby, the only young guys will be pitchers. That’s ok with TLR, he leaves them to DD. Position players will get younger over TLR’s cold dead body.
Or until we get some who PERFORM.
Wash your mouth out with soap HB. How do you think TLR got stuck with Colby? You will be thrown out of the TLR fan club for saying such things.
I prefer toothpaste to soap…
Colby plays because he contributes and performs. Same with other young guys who came up and played well… like Albert and Jon Jay. I think TLR’s preference is for the the guy who does the most to help the team… young or old. Considering guys at the margins… it’s fair to say he prefers experience to inexperience. Not always, but usually, one knows what to expect from guys who’ve been there and done that. The same isn’t generally true about the kids.
Good avoidance of my point there HB.
crdswmn — Maybe you need to clarify. Wasn’t trying to dodge your question and thought I had addressed it. You asked how TLR ‘got stuck’ with Colby… I disagree with the assumption behind that statement. Colby stays and plays because he performs. Never saw any attempt by the team to trade him… just reporting on other teams having interest, perhaps trying to take advantage of overblown reporting (and RC’s comments here) on the TLR-Colby rift
See, our problem is you think I am making assumptions.
Crdswmn-Schumaker replaced Adam Kennedy.Molina replaced Matheny,Ankeil replaced Edmonds and Rasmus replaced Ankeil.Freese was a rookie who took over last year.Jay took over RF from Ludwick when traded. So much for the nonsense about not playing ypounger players.You act so sure Colby will be traded.Guess what……………The sun will still come up and the Cards wil survive without Rasmus and family.
The replacement descriptions make perfect sense and all detail use of young players to take over for vets… exactly on point. Ankiel was young as a position guy, if not entirely a rookie in the organization.
Don’t let facts get in the way of those prejudices… I’m not sure I could handle that…
You’re all way out of line………………. this is a perfect example of why “fantasy baseball” isn’t real baseball……………………..
Nick is a bleeder……. we don’t have one……….Skip is too slow to hurt himself……………
The Twins gave Nick a nice contract……..because of his chemistry….and that was before the move outside….they did not waste money during that period…anyone playing on that Carpet….. that plays with abandon, has a hard time keeping their body parts in order. He served a function in a much more discipled system than ours…………….. he can play third……on a difficult surface……….. SS on a grass field makes him viable…….a diver at least………. he plays second well………….. in the vacuum of Cardinal plate suckage……………he likely out hits Theriot and Skip in a situational scenario……..he sure as hell can hit behind a runner and bunt…………….
This is a Tony play all the way……….. I think he won this one……….. you’re all gonna love this kid.
He can fend for himself.
Intangibles are nice, put someone actually needs to perform out on the field. With Brendan Ryan gone and the current starting middle infield’s defense suspect, they needed a better defensive replacement. Older, weak hitting guys aren’t going to win us over on paper, WC.
You said a mouthful there Nut…………………… I guess bats are essentially made of paper….what do I know anyway…………………..:roll:……………….Intangibles???????????? is that the place where the dirt and grass get on your uniform…………….
Intangibles are all of those things one uses to convince others that a player is worthwile despite the fact that he doesn’t produce. Tough, hard working players are great. They’re better when they have talent.
Some teams……….. have role players…………. scoring scenarios………… they use them over and over……… unless you no why 2010 Colby Rasmus would have never taken the field for the Twins……………the point is moot……………………..
Things that your view does not calculate……….how many times is a hitter given a specific objective, which if completed……is not statically enhancing or profiting………………what are the side effects of containing your aspirations while playing out that role?………….. the Cardinal freedoms, in imitation of the Albert /Yadi prerogatives, are why this team scores “no F’ing runs………………. Tony will see that Punto is well trained………… he likely will be playing more than advertised, even leading off against RH pitching. That is why Tony asked for him…… I have no doubt about that.
Everyone that is payed 4 large………to play MLB……has talent………..know the truth of that Nut. You will enjoy the games more.
Guys who can bunt well and who have strong fundamentals are useful even without padding their stats, I’ll grant you. Of course Punto is a more talented baseball player than most people on this planet, but there are players out there who encompass his strong points and can also hit the baseball above sub-par MLB level. At his age and with his experience level, we know his ceiling and it isn’t terribly high. I’d rather see a younger guy with the potential to be a higher level contributor on the roster.
I’m sure that La Russa will play Punto plenty. I’m sure that Punto is a nice guy and I’ll root for him, but I don’t think that it’s a good move for the team, especially given that they had a much higher upside glove guy in Brendan Ryan.
Thoughtful response Nut. I know that you are unaware that the BR example is inappropriate. That really needs to continue though for the best………..
Tony wanted Punto………….possibly he is building his own “posse” to help make the AP’s effect more manageable.??????????????? Perhaps the innuendo of using Greene in the outfield had a little more “saber rattle” than we are aware of???????? I wonder if Theriot was really Tony’s first choice? Or whether Skip has another possible destination…………people are still making trades out there.
I meant hitting up front against LH pitching …………..
Fair questions. I was assuming that Punto’s signing would squeeze Descalso out of a major league spot, but maybe not. Guess we’ll see.
I came across this article from a Minnesota newspaper columnist, who is glad Punto is gone. Very depressing.
Slides head-first into first base.
Showboats on defense.
Is a poor bunter.
Makes bad baserunning decisions.
Blamed crucial mistake on crowd noise.
Twins have a completely different climate……….. when you’re out…….they push hard. Much more controlled than St Louis even………… they help shape the fan perception….relentlessly.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/article_9b78c5ec-27d5-11e0-bdba-00127992bc8b.html
Don’t miss this Jeff Gordon article………be sure and read the comments…………
He serves his master well…………..but.what has master asked this time?
A possible RH lead off candidate ? I wouldn’t dismiss that factor.
Crdswmn-it makes sense to me.I was pointing out that TLR does play young guys.In your tunnelvision biased Anti-TLR usual state of mind you might have forgotten about those younger players who took over for older veterans.
On the other point if Rasmus is traded to improve the team i was pointing out the fact that the Cards will survive without Rasmus and family.
Have a nice evening and enjoy your dreams about a LaRussa-less Cardinal team.
We were all young once BW. That is not the point.
HBT-Crdswmn has to have her daily TLR rant or cheap shot.It must make her day.
Well, I wouldn’t say daily………..
Bw52 — I agree, it’s a regular if not daily occurence. But no use letting it upset you. It’s just like the sun coming up in the east every morning. Nothing you can do or say, short of dying, will change it!!!
It’s because you both make it so much more fun.
Lozano has to be concerned by the Wells trade………… BD has to be smiling.