With the best of intentions, I tried to clear up lineup questions with the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals by asking the manager himself.
Those who frequent The Cardinal Nation Blog are well aware of the discussion and debate we’ve been having here for weeks about Tony La Russa’s projected batting order for his 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.
I don’t waste a lot of time opining about my personal preferences as they really don’t matter to anyone. Instead, I try to gather intelligence on what might actually happen, apply a healthy dose of logic and report it to you.
The best way to try to help put some clarity around the issue is to ask the source. Near the top of my to-do list for this past weekend’s Winter Warm-Up was to again quiz La Russa on his lineup thinking. I did that, in a room with several dozen other scribes on Sunday.
The manager acknowledged hearing that some others have suggested Lance Berkman in the number two spot, but the guy with the marker and blank lineup card each day reiterated the new right fielder is his number five hitter.
First reported by some others based on the La Russa interview and repeated across the internet was news that Colby Rasmus is being considered as the team’s leadoff hitter along with newly-acquired Ryan Theriot and returnee Skip Schumaker.
I happened to be the writer that asked the manager those questions so was especially focused on the answers. I am not sure what was reported was what was meant. Then again, it could have been.
Upon listening to the tape, I realized that I had worded my question in a vaguer manner than I intended. Coming off a discussion of the three through five spots, I wanted to know about the first two spots in the order, but my exact word was “top”. Whether La Russa interpreted that to mean leadoff only or his first two spots is unknown.
Here is the exact transcript from the audio.
BW: “When Lance was signed, you said were thinking about him in the number five spot perhaps. Is that your current thinking and how do you see the rest of your batting order?”
TLR: “It’ll all develop, but if you had to write a lineup today, I’d have Matt – he hit fourth last year and was great. Lance can hit anywhere. He could hit third, he could hit fourth, he could hit fifth. The thing with Lance is that he is a middle of the lineup hitter and… pick one of the spots. Albert is our third place hitter and plan on keeping Matt fourth and Lance fifth.”
(At this point, the manager was reminded of a question that someone had previously asked, but he wanted to also cover here.)
“Somebody asked about Lance second. I’d try to avoid that. He’s a great on-base percentage guy, but one of the reasons you want him as a middle of the lineup guy is to create a more fair challenge for Colby and David Freese. Those guys don’t need to hit fifth.”
BW: “Who do you see at the top?”
TLR: “We’ll see. I know Skip has hit up there and hit .300. Ryan’s hit up there and hit .300. Colby’s hit up there, and I just think…”
Matthew Leach interjects: “Is Schumaker a second-place hitter? That’s something you haven’t done…”
TLR: “He could be. He could be. He gives you… The thing is who leads off, you have the balance of… I just think you don’t want to make too many statements. Even in your own mind, you don’t want to make decisions. Just see how the combinations play out.”
Joe Strauss: “Do you go into spring assuming the lower part of the lineup is the same as the end of last year with the pitcher hitting eighth or is that something that the team tells you in spring training?”
TLR: “Did we finish a lot with the pitcher hitting ninth?”
Group: “Yes.”
TLR: “Yes, I think it has a lot to do with… in a perfect world, you have somebody you can hit seventh and somebody you can hit ninth. If you’ve got guys that you hesitate to move into that ninth spot, then the pitcher can hit ninth. Right now with the lineup, I think I would have the pitcher hit ninth, knowing the guys we have.”
In other words, apparently La Russa doesn’t think he has a “second leadoff hitter” to place ninth, yet he has three contenders for the top of the order (however he defines “top”) and a set plan for three through five.
The bottom line is that I seem to have failed in my mission to establish complete clarity!
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Has Cloby batted leadoff? I remember him batting 2nd a few times. TLR said “…Colby’s hit up there…”, referring to “top” of lineup. So I assume he means leadoff or second is the “top” of the lineup.
Colby has been the leadoff man four times.
April 8, 09 @PIT, 0fer with 2 BB
May 11, 10 @HOU, 0fer with 1K
May 14, 10 v CIN, 1 for 3, 2B, 1R, 1BB
May 15, 10 v CIN, 1 for 4, HR, 1RBI, 2K
All three Colby leadoff games last year the lineup started Colby, Ludwick, Albert, Matt, Freese
I really hope Colby doesn’t leadoff. That would be a huge waste. Second is better than first but I don’t think I want that either.
Against righties, probably Skip and Freese 1,2.
Against lefties, I guess Theriot and Freese.
Colby can bat sixth and drive in a ton…and have the flexibility to run a little.
You are reading my mind Easton. I like David at 2 against LH pitching and 6 against a RH. I would probably go Yadi at 6 against a lefty. Keeping Colby at 7 against both LH and RH pitching.
RC, left unsaid is that your lineup has Molina batting 8th most days – against RHP. Not going to happen.
Sounds like Tony is leaning toward a Skip and Ryan in the 1-2 positions. That sounds real good to me. Two scrappy guys who will work the count. I will say that I do like David Freese in the 2 spot against left handed pitching though although David has little or no experience there.
I like David in the 6 spot as David pounds left hand pitching and I’m sure Lance will see quite a few lefty’s since his BA from the right side was absolutely horrible last year. So placing David after Lance will break up allowing one loogy to get both Lance and Colby.
Seems everybody’s take on TLR’s comments is influenced by their bias going in.. mine being no exception. When he answered Skip, Riot and Colby to the ‘top’ question, following a discussion of 3-5, it makes sense he’s talking 1-2, not just leadoff. But because Brian failed miserably to achieve clarity
we can now argue about it for several more weeks. The sad part is that crdswmn apparently agrees with my lineup suggestion, so I won’t be able to argue with her about it, a great disappointment! 
Actually, there is never such a thing as ONE lineup for TLR. There are always a minimum of TWO major themes (one for RH starter, one for LH starter) with variables based on individual matchups, hot/cold streaks, and other factors… like injury.
As Brian mentioned the other day, Freese has no history in the 2-hole. And as I’ve noted on several occasions, compare his BA w/RISP in 2010 to Colby’s and you’ll see why he is more likely to hit in an RBI slot and why Colby is more likely to bat 2nd. There, his footspeed will be more useful… not as a base-stealer, but as a run-scorer. With a nice OBP, increased success vs. LHP last year, some pop, and AP/MH/LB behind him, the boy could easily score 100+ runs.
I think both Skip and Riot will spend some time leading off… maybe alternating in the 1 & 8 holes, based on RH/LH matchups. But I’d prefer to see Riot leading off every day…
1. Riot, 2. Colby, 3. The Mang, 4. Matt, 5. Lance, 6. Freese, 7. Yadi, 8. Skip, 9. Pitcher.
Just to put numbers to it… These are 2010 results for BA w/RISP for those with over 100 ABs.
1) Ludwick .345, 2) Albert .343, 3) Freese .324, 4) Skip .297, 5) Yadi .286, 6) Lopez .284, 7) Jay .274,
Matt .271, 9) Craig .258, 10) Colby .252, 11) Miles .233, 12) Ryan .232, 13) Nick .231, 14) Feliz .202, 15) Winn .183, and 16) Greene .150.
Not sure how I got that emoticon instead of
(eight, close parens)
Some help. http://www.computeruser.com/resources/dictionary/emoticons.html
8-l (8-l)
Well that didn’t work.
Apparently the standard html emoticons don’t work on this blog. Brian, can you tell us which one’s do?
Testing 8:)
X-(
:-*
8 – )
+:-)
One more time B:)
8 – )
this is what HB did right here Crdswmn. You just have to remove the space from between them.
I was trying the surprise face, which is what HB originally wanted. Can’t find the code that works here.
I wasn’t actually trying to get any face there, just wanted to list Holliday #8 using the same format I’d used for the others. Total serendipity…
Oh. Well I would still like to know how to use other emoticons on this blog. Brian? Brian?
I am sorry. I was busy writing about the Cardinals.
I will check into a WordPress plugin that would enable other emoticons.
Writing about the Cardinals? What’s there to write about?
OK, rather than install more code, I offer you this: the link to a one-page list of emoticons that can be used here without any changes.
Oh goody. Now HB and I can argue with real emotion.
Bring it!!!
Dear lord… bring us some BASEBALL! When we get to amusing ourselves with emoticons, we are hurting real bad!
All issues will be predicated on the “AP disposition.”…………. Puma/Pujol/ Holiday in either of these configurations creates more problems for pitchers …2/3/4 or 3/4/5………….
These are the issues……… if AP is unsigned…….he will be pressing even more than this year…much worse is likely……….. that is going to effect your scouting report…………….Tony must win of its goodbye in any configuration…………………….. how does Tony get production surrounding a likely treatment of AP…………………. that will very………..
Love Freese;s swing……….with no competition at his position…….he is an unknown. ….. before he was injured last year, he had already hit the wall……….he has issues……
Colby is enigmatic…….. box of chocolates……….
Skip has been educated……if he want s a career, he must adopt a role…..he is pliant……..
Theriot will be aiming to please………..if Tony wants to win, he is going to have to be sacrificing 1st base open in front of AP……..to avoid the DP batting average swings/jog to first scenario……….giving the opposition a clear choice………. give AP a shot at the RBI or takes your chances with the sluggers……………………with 2 on……………………this is the real reason behind Puma hits 5th……….if he is getting on, and AP is choking……wasted bullets…mounting frustrations.
If Skip and Theriot are hitting 230 up front………..2 outs no one one……… 3 in a row still gives you a chance………… no pressure up front. He will try that first, realizing that Matt/Lance/David/Rasmus is going to score some runs…………..
The whole point………he has to attempt to manage the Pujols effect, however it may be playing out………. If AP is feeding, he needs appetites behind him when he is being avoided………..MH has never done that well……..I personally like Berkman hit 4th as a switch hitter. Holiday would be happy to get away from AP’s tail pipe…………….Lance might just love the fumes………..
I like photos of ballparks from the old days and today I found one I haven’t seen before. It shows the Polo Grounds in the foreground on one side of the Harlem River and Yankee Stadium on the other side. The 1951 WS took place at those venues between the Giants and the Yankees.
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2011/01/18/sports/Polo-Grounds-3.html
Very nice. Thanks for sharing.
Very cool bling, I have not seen that one before and enjoyed the whole series of photos