Thoughts about why the Albert Pujols contract negotiations with the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be moving so slowly.
Having spent this past weekend at the St. Louis Cardinals Winter Warm-Up and specifically listening to both Bill DeWitts, John Mozeliak, Albert Pujols and even his agent’s representative, I tried to take it all in.
Most readers are familiar with the basics of Pujols’ contract negotiations with the club, so I am not going to recap in great detail what has transpired to date. The two sides agreed not to negotiate through the media, reaffirmed it, then seemed to do precisely that.
Mozeliak was first when he explained to us on Saturday that the Pujols’ camp had set a start of spring training deadline for contract discussions. The statement surprised me as Mo did not offer it in reply to a direct question from one of us. He volunteered it as if he wanted to ensure the message was transmitted.
The next day, Pujols spoke. He was accompanied by a representative of his agent who tried to set the ground rules as to what could be asked and what could not. That went over like a lead balloon, but was at least moderately effective for Pujols personally in a “good cop, bad cop” sort of manner.
The player clearly and firmly delivered his between the lines message. He did not care for Mozeliak’s disclosure of the negotiating deadline.
Let’s stop for a minute and make sure that we understand that this little battle is not about money or years. It is about trying to seize the upper hand in the court of public opinion. It is unfortunate, but an expected part of negotiating.
Here is my personal take as to what may be happening.
I think the two sides lack trust in each other. Despite all the words about lifelong Cardinal-dom and the like, this is a business decision in which the stakes are huge.
To help put it into perspective, the upcoming financial commitment to Pujols is likely to exceed the original purchase cost of the franchise and could be as much as half the club’s current value. So, caution is understandable.
The most logical interpretation of the following sentence, spoken by team president Bill DeWitt III on Monday and reported exclusively at The Cardinal Nation, is that the Cardinals have yet to make a substantive bid for their superstar.
“We’re going to put an offer out there that will be the biggest contract in Cardinal history,” DeWitt said.
“Going to” and “will be” – the consistent choice of future tense says a lot.
The Pujols camp is currently taking a beating in some quarters for having created what appears to some to be an artificial deadline. It is understandable to me, especially given the individual, why Pujols does not want to talk contract during the season. My observation is that he is single-mindedly focused on his own game preparation each day.
Even if adhered to, this wouldn’t be the final deadline. The Cardinals hold exclusive negotiating rights until five days following the completion of the 2011 World Series. At that point, if a deal is not done, Pujols would hit the open market.
The key unanswered questions are whether Pujols really wants to test free agency despite his insistence of a preference to remain a Cardinal and whether the club will make an offer big enough to stop him. A team-record deal alone would likely not be enough.
Ideally, by now, the Pujols camp would have disclosed to the Cardinals what it would take in dollars and years to get a contract done. We don’t know if matters are that clear, however.
The DeWitt comment would seem to indicate that the club is taking their time to tender their big offer. The question is ‘Why?’
I think it could be that lack of trust and perhaps lack of confidence, as well.
Perhaps the Cardinals are unsure if Pujols will accept what they are prepared to offer. Maybe they either don’t know what the first baseman wants or aren’t (yet) willing to meet it if they do know.
Any bid made by the Cardinals that falls short of what Pujols would accept, the ceiling, becomes the new floor. To close the gap, either the ceiling must be lowered or the floor must rise. In other words, any non-closing offer made now will be expected to be increased in the future.
The Cardinals may also fear is that any bid they make would become the meets-minimum in discussions with other clubs that could occur at the point Pujols would become a free agent after the season.
Yet if the Cardinals don’t step up soon with a deal that is palatable to Pujols, their chances of losing him or at least seeing his price driven even higher this fall increases substantially.
Deadline or not, it is becoming time for the Cardinals to open the bidding in this very high-stakes game over the services of a major player in another game. Further, that bid has to be enough to capture Pujols’ fancy and ideally, quickly and painlessly secure his signature on the bottom line.
Loading ...Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
I can’t believe the Cards would be stupid enough to let Albert go to FA.
If free agency is what Pujols wants, there is no way to stop him. The more likely way that would occur is by the Cards making a bid or bids that would not satisfy Pujols.
Well if FA is what he wants then I question his sincerity in claiming he wants to remain a Cardinal.
So you dont TRUST him either
Let’s be realistic. What Pujols has said was this:
I want to remain a Cardinal.
What Pujols really means is this:
I want to remain a Cardinal, as long as I am fairly compensated.
Then it goes into the gray area of what is deemed fair…
What is fair? He should be paid what he is worth. Me, I think he is worth more than Ryan Howard or Arod but what does he think he is worth? Then the question remains whether hamstringing the the team for years to come matters at all to Albert. This is the test I am waiting to see him take. If it is indeed only about money then his image in St. Louis takes a big hit.
The problem is with the language. How do we know the Cards haven’t said “would you consider 6/180 with a $10 million bonus that our psychic Westie told us to offer”. The Cards could have said that but claim not to have offered him a contract because it wasn’t formal and in writing.
I mean does anyone really believe they mentioned numbers with Austin Wilson? Sure, they never made an offer (by the technical definition) so that allowed all parties to save face.
One can only hope that both sides have disclosed their expected parameters in the meetings to date. Hope.
From DeWitt III’s comments Monday, I came away with the strong feeling that the Cardinals are trying to include some other elements beyond just years and dollars.
The Cards are on the horns of a dilemma… sink a quarter to a third of team payroll into one guy, limiting their ability to keep a winning team around him… or risk losing him, one of the best hitters to ever play the game, and face a firestorm of fan discontent.
I’m trying not to take sides, trying to see things from both perspectives. I’d like to see them work out a deal and see AP wearing the birds on the bat for the rest of his career… but not at any price. Not at a price that would doom the team as a whole to mediocrity and an inability to remain competitive.
The Cards ain’t the Yanks or Phils… the only teams I’m aware of who pay a player over $25M per year. Just because those teams overpaid, should the Cards be expected to do the same? At the same time, Albert is clearly a once-in-a-lifetime player who deserves to be fairly paid. But what’s fair?
That’s the $24-$30M/year question…
The Cardinals and Laz/PU have had very limited discussions……………… in confidence, they ended the Charade for lack of any mention of an “offer” with a deadline………………….that is exactly what BD was waiting for. He pounced…………see yesterdays offering……………..
You were given the numbers …………don’t ask. The illusion of wanting to understand, or knowing, is way over blown. I’m just having fun. DeWitt has a pattern of behaviors in his negotiations……………this has always been about Pujols ability to damage or extort from his investment………….it isn’t about baseball………………….you can’t understand these concepts completely within the framework of some antiquated, “Stan Musial” era baseball fantasy.
DeWitt will have contingencies for every possible AP behavior………including the “trade me” tirade……………………..his offer, perfectly timed was given to you……..it was based on all of your “apparent sensibilities’….what the public needs to believe about his activities…………….. it may well work……….its allot of money…………………
What is missing here is an appreciation for the exquisite ruthlessness of BD’s actions…………
Winning baseball is for fools, with the current Union agreement in place………all the teams making money are the low budget loser’s………..the KC kings playing the Globetrotters……
and look……..no matter what you do…….2006 proves its just an accident anyway.
“”"”"”"”"Lozano’s opening, move wasn’t such a good one in a game with a man known for his win+win business schemes……………. by establishing a deadline, he lost the initiative allowing BD a nice foot hold in carrying out his plan……………. A rookie play really……….Mo leaks and Danny is stuck with it………………………….. here is how this will play out.
BD will make his offer public now, and doesn’t need a leak to do it. That offer will be 6/30 with a 10 million dollar signing bonus, effectivly making it a 7yr deal…….as he sees it. 190 million is a big win for him. He will leave AP/Laz 15 days to struggle with the mounting pressure, created by their own time limit……………….. This is simply trying to drive a wedge between AP and Danny boy…………always BD’s tactic………….. any counter they make at that point will of course go public, as BD has the initiative and the precedent………….against mounting public pressure…….. the offer will likely have a request for delayed payments, giving AP something to reject should he angrily except…………………… if it is ignored………….AP will drag that albatross behind him the whole season………creating the real desired effect…………market will have been established………for all to consider…………
Baseball has nothing to do with it……………… The energy consortium(BD) is inflating oil prices, absorbing all the efforts to reestablish a stronger economy………with an election year approaching, plenty of diversions…………….. Fielder and AP will dangle in a crippled market………public sentiment will frown on the egotistical posturing of AP……….. for whom ever tries to market him……………
Of all the scenario’s possible, only Pujols raking all the way to a WS even hurts Billy….a little. He would have the bidding war to hide under in that case, allowing AP to slide away …..well stigmatized…………If Berkman sticks, and Carpenter clicks………..just that much more pressure on AP…………………………..guy is good………… Worst case scenario…….Pujols takes it…..BD raises ticket prices and we loose for 7 years marveling at the record run…………..Tony would be in his 70′s ………….pitcher batting 5th by that time………………….
WC, I would have been very disappointed had you not posted a reply…………
Why let Bernie have all of it………………………..
Exactly!
The correct spelling in that connotation is “Bugzactly” :0
For some that are struggling with some of these ideas ask yourself this;
When AP says that Mo/BD are “unprofessional” for leaking the negotiation deadline……………..
Imagine the tone and content of the dialog within the sphere of “professional confidence”…………. that AP was led to believe existed………….. AP of course never being involved in any of the meeting I would guess…………..
In order to insulate AP against the tactics of BD, Lozano had AP pissed about what he said was going on.
This is the real reason the handler was there………….. If you watch the interview, the handler was much more intent in listening to Albert’s improvisational statements than worrying about buffering against leading questions. Yes questions may well have been a worrisome trigger, but AP’s loosing his temper about what he perceived to be true could have been a disaster, possibly leading to the dreaded trade request scenario that would be so “rewarding” to BD, so expensive to Danny.
It would seem a trade request would only be “expensive” to the Pujols camp if he thought the Cards were going to be out in front of the market. Since you’ve implied they are going to low ball him (dont really want to sign him anyway) I dont see how a trade is expensive for the Pujols team.
There is no doubt the Cardinals will start with a low offer, either in money or years. I believe they know that they can’t let Albert go and they have to believe that Albert wants to stay in St. Louis. So they will start low and see if they can, again, get a bargain. Albert most likely won’t bite on these low offers because he has the Cardinals by the short hairs, and he knows they know it. Albert will probably have to drag this thing out in order to get the Cardinals to pay him like he is the best player in the land. The cardinals won’t give him huge money today. The only way Albert gets the big money is for him to push this thing into next January. Then he breaks the bank, and the cardinals in the process.
You’re asking the wrong person………..I believe 190 million is too much……….. I see that his agent has a plan. At present Lozano’s biggest challenge is to get AP to the open market, where he has told AP true self esteem and recognition my be achieved…………… expensive is finding out that control of your options in a bidding war is his only hope of going over 200+
Everyone trivializes the last three years of AP/TLR struggling against BD/Mo…………… he just called them chickens for not taking his deadline punch on the chin???…………. the fight is for public opinion………… BD has drawn first blood…………………… AP wants to stay……..Lozano wants to be famous………. they both likely fail.
Scott Boras is smiling…………he will make money off this one way or another………. his A-Rod book, compiled for 250,000 dollars, had a profound effect on baseball today………….. Rangers owner bid 30 million more the next high bid………… he got the opt out as a condition of the trade to NY………….. how did he do with that?……………………he isn’t A-Rods agent now….but he has 4/5% of that deal……………….
Its about time for TLR to jump in with a comment or two in support of Albert.
He is working both sides RC………….thats why he has a job…………
Colby could offer to take a pay cut to help the team afford Albert. Now wouldn’t that stir up some sh!t.
I think someone asked Colby what he thought about albert and his upcoming free agency and I believe Colby said he didn’t care what Albert did. ha It wasn’t the typical I hope he stays type of stuff you always hear.
He said Albert was his own man… smartly dodging the question.
Colby may have talked with dozens of people, but if you are referring to his media briefing at WWU, then I have it on tape. I think I would have remembered if he said he didn’t care, though.
I’ll go back and find it. It may have been, he can do what he wants. I’ll search and find. When I heard it I kind of held my breath a little because his political correctness seems to be lacking at times.
misremembered.
Wonder where the lack of political correctness could of come from. His mom I guess.
Since everyone is bored………….. I’m going fishing a bit……………read this thread…….starting with the above message…………….. you have 20/20 hindsight now………… or…….if it still misses you, don’t bother reading…………….
I have done plenty of negotiating in my 25 years practicing law. Of course you always start out lowball if you are doing it from a position of strength. The Cards lost any position of strength by waiting so long. Now they just look like the keystone cops.
Hamilton asked Texas for $12 million and was offered $8.7 million;
negotiate this one CRD………..3.3……………they don’t want Hamilton in a arbitration hearing…….bad scene……..they will take the median.
You will never see an incremental negotiation between AP and the Cards. Lozano would never allow his starting demand to be made public…………he isn’t stupid.
[...] Brian Walton writes at his Cardinal Nation Blog that he thinks the Cards and Pujols’ agent do not trust each other. It is certainly interesting to see the posturing on both sides that committed to “not negotiate in the press” and only time will tell who was working in good faith. [...]
Its difficult to conceptualize concerns like yours without a more realistic model. You must understand that the Cardinals are a professional entertainment. The marketing of that entertainment utilizes a very powerful promotional industry. For the duration of your contract, the job of that industry is to enhance your marketability, or to validate your standing in the community of fans who consume your image.
With the advent of Free Agency, comes the new roll of Agent/Advocate. As we’ve seen many times of late, the agent has a professional ego related to his business interest, just as intense or prominent as a performing athlete. They are playing and grandstanding in an attempt to attract clients. Its the business.
Bottom line. The Cardinals and Albert Pujols / Lozano are in a adversarial posture. Both sides are competing to control the image and mythology surrounding the fictional character that both helped to create, thus controlling its profitability. Profitability = public interest and perception of the myth or image. DeWitt has won the initiative by forcing Lozano to make the first move, which was establishing a deadline to protect the space needed to maintain the integrity of his client’s athletic performance. Says he. In truth, the Cardinals hadn’t made an offer and were clearly stalling. In the context of the negotiation, by leaking the deadline, DeWitt forced the illusion that Lozano had made a first move on the public. He then announced that a formal offer would be forth coming, in full public view as his counter move, forcing Lozano now up against his own deadline to publicly announce his expectation in response. Albert was angry. He needed a handler. Not so much as a press buffer, but someone to step in should he loose his composure. It looked bad. Unless he takes the 190, he will at least look at free agency.
Be entertained by this. You will end up paying for what ever is decided anyway. So smile.
I was thinking about your comment, “It looked bad.”
Obviously, having the representative of the agent in the room who tried to control the questions was far from ideal and put everyone on edge. The statement from Cards media relations that ground rules had been set ahead of time angered the media since none had been told of this and they wouldn’t have agreed anyway. So the discussion did not start of level ground.
My reaction afterward was different from many of the other media with whom I chatted. Some called the press conference things like “contentious” and painted Pujols as being angry. To me, Pujols seemed not all that different from the way he always is. He is never a warm and fuzzy interview.
Several media members continued to press with questions about the contract after Pujols said he would not talk about it. That happened about six times by my count. If there was any frustration, it may have been warranted by that point. DeWitt and Mo were not pushed that hard, for example.
I asked questions like about the condition of his elbow, called softball by some. So be it. He said he didn’t want to talk contract and I chose to respect that.
As noted, there are a number of angles to every story…
This “negotiation” has happened again and again during the life of the “Free Agency”.
It has never looked quite this way because, to be honest, Pujols unique relationship to the
” immortals records” and quite frankly, the presents of a “persona” as powerful and philosophically dynamic as Bill DeWitt’s……… has all the makings and characteristics of the “perfect storm”.
Be honest……….. DeWitt has prepared this market for this moment since I’ve been watching. He has prepared for any eventuality.
There is a paper floating around the bastions of “Men of the Republic”, done by an obscure “Economist”, on methods to “capitalize” on ” Self initiated inflationary cycles”………….. Savings and Loan Scandal and bailout……… Enron…………. and most recently, the Housing Bubble Burst………………………. All the same formula………… The wise would recognize the significants of the A-Rod contract and the market management since. Because it hasn’t been exposed, it is evolving as a number of other schemes still are……… that you likely live with every day………….the fan base is approaching its limit financially….. holding that market at that point, the next windfall comes from altering the “precedent” used to initiate that inflationary cycle. Sachs & Goldman is doing that to you in the market place every day…….don’t you love it.
If AP excepts DeWitt’s offer……..BD wins……….. if he doesn’t, he runs into the colluded market that has been prepared for him………BD wins………. baseball has nothing to do with it. The ugly part that you’re starting to see signs of, is in fact the complete disregard for a competitive environment. That is the basis for Tony’s “chemistry” push…………. you can’t stay in business if you kill the bull in this arena.
“Its difficult to conceptualize concerns like yours without a more realistic model.”
Westie, are you the pot or the kettle here?
The effects of logic/reason are apparently reversed in the southern hemisphere………..as your analogy would seem to suggest. I like your question mark though. That is a positive sign. Think what you might learn if you just knew what questions to ask…………instead of assuming that what you can see from so far…………. actually represent answers for anyone…………..
The resolution of sensory stimulation and the subsequent organization of its symbolic representations is different for everyone………………… some recognize that the outward projection of the senses (inquiry) becomes most powerful when this process becomes articulate.
Answers are illusory…………. all significant questions resolve into a state of awareness which becomes the foundation for the conception of the next relevant inquiry. Therefore I might suggest this…………, I know nothing….. I see or am aware many things ………
Therefore a statement like this, “Its difficult to conceptualize concerns like yours without a more realistic model.”………….. and the complexities/confusion it creates for you………likely means you are driving a late model ” I know all the answers, but see very little”…………..
I wouldn’t advise you to drive that one very fast………………. least you rear end Jumbo in the “fog of mis perception”…………………….
yada yada yada
“…time will tell who was working in good faith…”
That statement assumes that one side was acting in good faith more so or less so than the other side. I would be interested to know what causes the author to think that. It assumes there is a good guy and a bad guy. That may not be the case.
Agreed. Time may never tell.