A look back at the top projected stories across the Cardinal Nation in 2010 from one year ago.
Just under a year ago, last January 31, I published my predictions of what I thought would evolve into the top five stories across the Cardinal Nation in 2010. With the benefit of full hindsight, including the top 20 stories of 2010 countdown now in the books, this is a look back at my initial forecast.
The original top five projections follow, along with where the stories actually ended up, including links to the before and after articles. I won’t be repeating my 2010 summaries here, so click on the links if you’d like to read the detailed stories.
I didn’t do all that well with my predictive powers, with one story that ended up missed the top 20 completely, another that fizzled out and yet another that remains huge, but unfinished.
I should receive a little bit of slack, though, for having passed on two gimmes – the conclusion of the 2010 season and the Matt Holliday signing. The latter was already known when I made my predictions and the former is going to be a top story just about any year.
| 2010 prediction story | Prediction rank | Actual rank | 2010 actual story |
| Pujols’ pending payday | 1 | 4 | The Pujols decade |
| The McGwire reaction | 2 | 18 | Big Mac’s return |
| La Russa’s future plans | 3 | 5 | La Russa and Duncan return |
| Will Freese ice down 3B? | 4 | 14 | An even worse year at third |
| Continued closer concern | 5 | NR | Not applicable |
1. Pujols’ pending payday
Ok, I will fall on my sword right off the bat. While an Albert Pujols-related story did end up making my 2010 top 4, it wasn’t about money. Instead, it was oriented toward his accomplishments on the field as his first decade as a major leaguer came to a close.
The big story regarding the franchise first baseman, his next contract, still remains open. That has to be considered not a great sign overall, since most would agree that having gotten the deal done in 2010 would have been better than in 2011 (or not at all).
In fact, this could very easily remain my top projected story for 2011. This time, I think it will come through, one way or another. It almost has to.
2. The McGwire reaction
I was wrong about this one, too. The return of the former steroid-using slugger was big news 12 months ago. Once Big Mac said what he said and again decided to say no more about the past, the novelty quickly wore off, however.
A bigger question this year may be in whether or not McGwire’s Cardinals hitters will collectively improve in terms of their results on the field.
The next story below would seem to suggest that McGwire could be expected back for a third season in 2012.
3. La Russa’s future plans
Good news and bad. The good news is that I pegged this story as a top-five item and it came through. Further, it is also great that Dave Duncan will be back to lead the pitchers for at least two more years and perhaps three.
The bad news is that Tony La Russa appears primed to once again subject us to annual fall guessing games about his plans for the next year before deciding to return. Coming to a big screen near you this coming October!
In reality, something very bad would have to happen before La Russa would walk away before securing those 126 managerial wins needed to take second place on the all-time list. We all know it, so why didn’t he just sign a two-year deal?
4. Will Freese ice down third base?
In addition to being benched for the deployment of a bad pun above, I will make matters worse by observing that David Freese spent far more time in 2010 icing down his ankles than icing down his job playing third base.
With still no proven backup plans behind Freese, the holder of two more ankle surgeries in the last year, the Cardinals appear to going all-in on Freese once again.
Paging Mr. Cox, Zack Cox…. You have a call on line one…
In hindsight, making this story only number 14 in the 2010 year end countdown probably underestimated its impact.
5. Continued closer concern
I whiffed on this one, or should I say, I was probably a year too early. As folks may recall, one year ago, Ryan Franklin was on shaky ground with many fans after he put the cherry on top of Holliday’s error with a ninth inning meltdown in game two of the 2009 LDS.
The closer didn’t seem to let it bother him in 2010. It wasn’t Franklin’s fault that he was presented with so few save opportunities, but he almost always delivered when given the chance. His conversion rate of 93.1 percent (27 of 29) was second in the National League, trailing only San Diego’s Heath Bell (94%).
Not considered a strikeout pitcher by any stretch, Franklin still fanned over four batters for every free pass issued. That mark stands head and shoulders above the other Cardinals relievers. As such, Franklin also had the lowest WHIP, walks and hits per innings pitched, on the staff.
With Franklin heading into the final year of his current contract and hinting about retirement afterward, it is important to note that understudies Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs each gained a valuable year of experience setting up Franklin. The identity of the 2012 closer is a good candidate for the coming year’s top story list.
Speaking of which…
Next up: In my final article of this series, I will outline my predictions for the top five Cardinals stories of 2011.
Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown
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I forgot to mention that the fan voting for your #6-10 stories of 2010 is still open here. If you haven’t yet voted, please do. Thanks.
Brad Penney taking a 3million with 3 m in incentives……… I find surprising…..tough Market……….
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_26040284-0028-534b-8069-11493455aebf.html
Hummmmmm……….what causes Derrick to do some homework??? The presentation of events should stimulate some here who read and understand whats being said. Does he read here…yes…..but more likely his Cardinal source gave him a bit direction on what theories are (were) being discussed……….issues so complex that they might lead you to believe they are the true cause for the delay…………unlikely is that to be true……….. A-Rods foundation salary was based on his prior agreement………. AP’s would need to redefined by the market place.
“Rodriguez signed the deal one full season before he admitted to using steroids, a confession prompted by a Sports Illustrated report that he failed a drug test”……….
This statement is the catcher………… I’ve stated here who the leaker was……… see if you can recall.
Tpsreports.
To my favorite stalker, with love. Enjoy this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWCXzyLp0Ds&feature=related
Try this one on for size to tps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rm0TC6FlV5U&NR=1
and this…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YTwJPc0cCI
It was a great game RC…………………….Oregon made a big tactical blunder when they gambled their preparation on the Auburn defensive ends to be too aggressive. They looked like fools in the first quarter………………when they just stayed home and just took care of business…………..
Auburn’s play calling made adjustments much earlier which ended up to be the difference.
That was a cheap “no whistle”……….. if an Oregon player comes in on top of that tackle, he gets flagged…………….bad call there………..I’m sure that at least 3 relevant officials should have been protecting a defenseless runner………and couldn’t possible have been in position to see that the knee missed the ground by an inch……………….. Best team won though…………..
Video evidence confirmed the call on the field WC. You can’t criticize the officials because they actually got it right.
You better wink on that one………..
Oregon’s offense appears to be made for the big play and when asked to power the ball in from inside the 5 they don’t look to be able to do it. The game was sloppy on both sides but Auburn did what they have done all year long….enough to win.
The better team won.
You may be disappointed RC. I’ll bet TPS doesn’t show up, because Auburn won. TPS is a flame and run bottom dweller.
Not to rain on the parade, as Auburn is the deserved champ of college football, but I also noticed the school is ranked #10 on the list of dumbest college programs. link
Here is a more complete article on the subject more directly related to Auburn. In addition to pointing out the bad it says they have been getting praised for getting their house in order.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/sports/ncaafootball/06auburn.html
I notice Oregon is also on the list (though there FB program is dragging them down like Auburn’s)
that should be Oregon’s FB progrm is *not* dragging them down
No rain in the dome Brian. And I have stated this numerous times throughout the years, I could care less if the players on the football team can spell their name or not. I don’t watch the games to see a Duke/Harvard debate.
Kind of like saying man I love John Travolta’s films but I feel uneasy watching them because he didn’t graduate from high school, or was a poor student. It makes me no never mind when I have my popcorn, nachos, coke and butterfinger bars in my lap and the movie starts playing.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/393777-matt-holliday-albert-pujols-swapped-in-st-louis-cardinals-lineup
Between these two stories……..Tony is forced to make the statement, ” we are paying Matt Holiday to hit behind AP, not the other way around”………………In reality, Tony is trying to win some games. Matt was producing at third……………..Tony was trying to get him to the plate by leaving first open…………and AP new it…….thats what pissed him off. The events surrounding this story were the most relevant to me………………………….its implications toward the future are ominous…………..
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/05/23/albert-pujols-tony-la-russa-play-down-spat/
I’m going to hold off on the latest Tony news……….. I can’t seem to create a context for it……
CRD………….make yourself useful here………do some of the leg work………and ask the “easy questions”……… that should arise. You have one of the more interesting educations………use it.
I’m getting close to “knock / Knock jokes…………
Some help……………. Tony sent Ludwick because he “assumed” that they would be very surprised, giving the play a high probability of success………………. it was a very close play…a perfect throw beating Ludwick…………….. yes, that would have sent AP to first on a walk………….Tony’s reason for sending him Ludwick……….. A day or two before is when AP made Tony eat is batting order move…….with explanation to the press……….unpleasant for Tony………….. a rare manipulation of the manipulator…………. I’LL save the rest………
I just saw ” The Fighter” RC…………. a very well done movie…………. what a world we live in. Be sure to stay and see the trailer where they have footage of the real characters………that will blow your mind.
Um, well if you tell me what Tony news you are talking about WC my interesting education might be able to help you out.
You just did CRD………………….
I was glad to help WC……………..I guess.
On the agenda for saturday noon WC. Or sunday noon. We are heading to see fighter then. We see at least 2 movies every weekend. Plus my baseball team attends one during the week together. A little team chemistry building.
Thats a tough movie for kids RC ……….. it speaks of drug addiction and the poverty of consciousness that can surround it………….. it speaks highly of forgiveness though, in the end. That was a difficult challenge for me…………. a little like siphoning gasoline as a kid……. a great movie I must admit……….. but its achievement in realism is a haunting reminder of what dysfunction is actually possible when a little bit of fame and notoriety is mixed in.
The real world is real WC. And don’t think the kids of today aren’t accustomed to dealing with the issues you feel are above their pay grade.
When I was growing up beer and alcohol were the drugs of choice for kiddies during their teen years. I haven’t had to fight the drinking issues in a while. Marijuana is the drug of choice now and boy does it have a grip on many many folks. You ask them why and they will tell you quick like, I don’t get a hangover from smoking a blunt. A blunt is a cigar that has had the tobacco removed and replacing it with Weed. I have current players who smoke weed with their parents. Its a different world today WC.
Its like the parent that doesn’t speak with their kids sex and the bad things that can happen when you have unprotected sex because they think that if they mention it their child will be more apt to do it. Wrong!!! Those kids know about that way before a parent even begins to think about telling them about it. I have both sex talks and drug talks with my players and they still make mistakes concerning both. Unfortunately most parents today try to avoid those discussions and that is a recipe for disaster. I thrust myself into their world so deep as to be able to hear things that few adults will ever get to hear. I can then try to persuade them to make good choices instead of not knowing what is going on until it is too late. I don’t tell them what to do but rather lay out the pro’s and con’s on many issues that they have t.o deal with.
So a movie that is real life will allow them see both the good things that can happen as well as the bad things that can happen depending on the choices they make in this life.
But thanks for the warning. I may not take my wife. She don’t like the REAL in life, only the fantasy.
I do not get parents who think if they don’t talk about their kids won’t do it. I find that logic unfathomable.
RC — Not that I know much about such things…
but a ‘blunt’ is just modern slang for a marijuana cigarette, what was called a ‘joint’ back in the day.
Brian — I think you’re safe, either way, on that #1 story for 2011. Can’t imagine it being anything else… unless the Cards win the WS!
Good point. While I feel good about the team, I don’t feel THAT good. Maybe after some yummy Winter Warm Up kool-aid and the roast of TLR, I will be more optimistic come next week!
Just make sure it’s RED Kool-Aid!
I’m betting the roast will be boring. Everybody will be scared to say anything any good for fear of his wrath. Usually those things are fun. I would expect this roast to be a Tony pre hall of fame type event. Full of Tony’s accolades. Which is fine but a roast should be full of personal jabs which are always fun to hear.
RC — The guys who will be doing the roasting are Bobby Knight, Jim Leyland, Dave Stewart and Steve Kline… none of whom have anything to fear from TLR. So the roast should be full contact with no fear of backlash. Kline once gave TLR ‘the bird’ from the bullpen.
That might come up somewhere..
I heard a very interesting interview with Jim Leyland just last night. He mentioned that he and TLR remain very close and while he will tell a few stories at the roast, he is not going to embarrass.
He went on to have a very refreshing discussion about his openness with his players and the media. I have never covered Leyland, so I did not know that side of him well. I was very impressed. Not sure if KMOX archives their weekly Hot Stove Show, but that is where it was.
I just got the ’06 WS DVD set and was similary imprssed with Leyland. His in-game interviews are a model of frankness with zero spin. Very refreshing. He’s the ulimate straight-shooter.
I bet Kliner is going to be a RIOT! If I was in StL, I’d pay admission just to see that part. You’ll have to tell us about it, afterwards.
Expectations are high for Knight and Kline. Knight is a polished pro at these kinds of things. Kline was always a good interview. I would get him going talking about wrestling as my kids were into it around the same time so I had some knowledge of the characters. The KMOX guys joked that it was a good thing they will play the roast audio on a delayed basis. I think they will have some of it on next Tuesday’s Hot Stove Show. I will figure out how to share some of it as well.
Goold at the P-D has an article today on Cards minor league prospects… gives Brian’s work at Scout a nod. Baseball American ranks Luhnow’s Empire as 24th in MLB, better than 29th, as it was at this time last year.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_0bf68e18-1e89-11e0-a06a-0017a4a78c22.html
Great article on Holliday in the P-D today. Lots of stuff in there about clubhouse leadership that WC/RC will get jacked about…
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_6cceac48-1816-5ca7-a123-e7a0cbfe93d6.html
Both Ethan and Jackson throw right…..hit left…………. Freese is working his front side hard…..thats reassuring………. don’t see much else.
Also, Matt was working on last years abandoned adjustments……….thats a good thing……watch his swing in the video and notice the vertical slide downward with his hands……. this allows him reduce his leg kick and most importantly ………defend his hands……he is getting some knee flex too which is the root of most of his problems.
From an online chat that Chris Perez did recently
http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2011/01/indians_closer_chris_perez_ans_1.html#incart_hbx
[Comment From JeriJeri: ]
Do the Cardinals and the Indians have a different team culture?
Wednesday January 12, 2011 12:35 Jeri
12:36
CP:
Yes, very much so. The Cardinals are a lot more intense and less forgiving. But the teams are made up totally differently.
Less forgiving on steroids.
The “less forgiving” is a very provocative statement………………. give some thought to that one.
Has the “chemistry change” lessened the “Pujols” effect? Will the isolation of the scowling “Caribbean all-stars” change anything? ……………………I’m dying to see how AP deals with the realities of the Cardinal stonewall standing before him………..bet he blinks.
Sounds like Matt may try to push himself into the mix a little more. I hope. The dynamic duo of Albert and Yadi will still control the room but hopefully the rest of the position guys can band together to form a little team unity. Two groups beat the stuffing out of 5-6 groups.
If Matt comes out firing like i hope he will I can’t wait to see if Albert will be able to stay with him. It will make for some big time drama. Its exciting stuff for sure.
Matt is so soft spoken……………… Berkman is here to stir the pot……….when Albert tries to pressure him…….Lance will bond even more intensely with Matt, and their production will likely bring an olive branch from the rotations…………..hopefully………. Matt hit 3rd for 4 games…….we won three…..
Colby needs the 2 spot………. it is worth a career effort………………….tell him never take time to evaluate a challenge from the outfield……….. always assume, and then demonstrate it’s futility.
Thats Torre Hunter………fans pay to see it………..Tony is likely going to be demanding it…….the effort expended will transfer to momentum at the plate……….win / win…………..
Hmm…I gave some thought to the “less forgiving” statement and I don’t find it provocative at all.
I just think Chris was asked a question (how awesome is it that he agreed to do that?) and answered honestly. Maybe you and others might find it provocative, but I don’t think it was intentionally provocative on his part. He’s doing his part to be a good Indian, and has quickly become a fan and management favorite.
Or maybe I’m misunderstanding what you’re trying to say. That happens to me quite frequently.
“Pure Rage” is well on his way to being a fine end of game reliever. Good for him. He works hard on his game.
I am also a Perez admirer. Always a straight shooter with me, even when he reached St. Louis and had a few rough outings early on. I am sure he must have felt the pressure, especially intense for a young, late-inning guy.
Brian, you should go read his chat. He didn’t use word “pressure.” If he felt pressure, he didn’t say it. He was asked about the CULTURE of the Cleveland club compared to the St. Louis club. The words he used were “more intense” and “less forgiving.”
Perez has quite a bit of Brian Wilson in him. He always was a closer, all through the minors and in college-he would’ve had to give it up by now if he felt pressured on the mound.
Sorry if I was unclear. I saw the chat and know he did not say “pressure”. That was my word, a common one used in conjunction with closers. Whether or not they handle it internally, closing is a most pressure-filled role. In this context, I was also referring to the additional pressure some young players feel in St. Louis. Perez noted this when he talked about it being a less forgiving environment. I suspect any player will naturally feel more pressure if he knows his mistakes will not be easily forgiven, especially a young player. These were more general observations, using Perez’ words as an illustration.
Brian, I understand why you used the word “pressure” even though Perez never used the word himself. That’s the easy answer though, and a bit simplistic.
How about substituting the word uncomfortable? Chris was uncomfortable in St. Louis, just like numerous other players that came through the system have been.
I’m glad Perez has found a level of comfort in Cleveland. He was never going to fit here because he simply isn’t wired to pitch to contact.
From a purely philosophical stand point MM…………. forgiveness is a complicated dynamic, a difficult word to define or analogize………………. when a player fails to answer the hopes and aspirations of his teammates, after being bested in competition……….does he require forgiveness? Does his vulnerability at that point, his disappointment, require special attention from his teammates? Do players from other traditions, other cultures, where performance is related to territorial masculinity, relate to this state of vulnerability differently? Or as in AP’s example as pointed out here in recent threads…………. where he will back down anyone, even his coach, should his vulnerability be recognized or challenged as territorial posturing.
I’m old school…………these are grown men playing for money………. I’m going to let my teammate know if they’re letting me down………especially do to self pity, or as in BR case, disrespectful flippancy…….. …………….but hell, day to day, you have to back your teammates, you will need them tomorrow…………..you, by chance may be the goat tomorrow………I’m not looking for forgiveness, but by god, if someone “needs” to question my sincerity or effort, I will respectfully listen………though offering no apology………….I deal with that all the time………
Now…………that being said……………. AP has alienated many of his teammates I’d guess, with his
little league self admonishments and sulking……..to hold himself somehow above what his teammates need to share in there efforts to preform…………….. In one of my “in season” play by plays in September, AP hit a ball to SS……..who bobbled it badly…..but still threw him out by 3 steps……….AP breaking into a limp as the ball hit the glove…………..I called BS on that………he went
1st to 3rd on a single later in the game………….. that was carp……….shockingly, I heard that story retold from a completely different vantage point……..where eyes were also rolling…… he has some problems to deal with…….along with his Minnie-me…………….
I’m almost positive………that this very problem is what caused the collapse…… AP, suddenly retaking the team initiative with his “trade deadline” 15 hr celebration……. creating instability. When the opposing teams tactics went back to “playing around” AP, his teammates could not respond, only seeing his “Casey like” disdain as he trotted down to 1st base after being repeatedly walk………… implying his teammates inferiority with his “territorial” displays…….
If Pujols is signed………will he settle down………….how about BD………..Albert going to rag on him for 10yrs for signing no protection?………………. If this guy comes to grip with reality, he is someone you want on your side……………………………….. the way people pitch to him, I’m not sure anyone is chomping at the bit to see how the “Pujols effect” changes their team. There are many reason why some would see him go.
Bidding for him on the FA market in 2012, with some very predictable variables present……….. may be the “cheapest” option possible. He could burn down this year……… market may be over saturated………..someone might make an offer impossible to compete with……………… all “guilt free” scenarios for BD………. thats my take……….. he needs to hit 4th, Holiday 3rd, Berkman 5th……we win………..if AP is still creating P hits 8th BS…….and no stealing in front, we loose.
Maybe there’s a ‘more forgiving’ atmosphere in Clevland because if you blow a save there it’s less of an issue to a last place team than for a perennial contended like the Cards…
That or since they win so infrequently, holding on to each precious win that they might earn becomes even more important.