Some baseball writers criticize their award-voting peers while others attack those who critique them.
Prior to the announcement of this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame vote, several mainstream writers maintained a long-standing drumbeat of complaints about complainers, reiterating how weary they are of non-voters criticizing the voters and the process. In some cases, direct challenges to dissenters were made via social media.
Healthy, issues-oriented discussion of baseball award voting is both an annual rite and right. For example, in 2010, the collective anger of a group of St. Louis Cardinals watchers were directed toward a pair of sabermetric-oriented voters who were believed to have robbed Adam Wainwright of his rightful Cy Young Award.
Yet once the 2011 Hall results become visible, some of the most scathing criticism came from not from fans on message boards or the blogging community, but from within their own ranks, the mainstream media. In one most ironic case, some of the heaviest shots were delivered by a writer at the same entity that employs one of the more vigorous attackers of external questioners.
Some writers offered their peer criticism laced with humor or satire while the less subtle resorted to direct body blows. The common thread was the enlightened going to great lengths to explain why they are smarter, more balanced and more visionary than the other voters.
Criticism of the voting was not limited to the writers. For example, at different junctures of KMOX radio’s Hot Stove Show this Tuesday, at least three well-known Cardinals broadcasters suggested the same “solution” to the Hall voting. Not surprisingly, their answer is to include… themselves. After all, broadcasters are with the teams every day, etc…
I bring this up not to join those taking shots at the results or the process. Hall of Fame voting is extremely challenging and with several hundred casting ballots, there are going to be differing views each and every year, no matter the rules or the voting population. It has always been controversial and likely always will be.
Further, I have no reason to believe the vast majority of the current voters do not take their responsibility very seriously, yet it seems incredibly hypocritical for members of the mainstream to lash out at others for their critiques while doing precisely the same thing themselves.
As Sun Tsu once wrote, “Know thy self, know thy enemy.”
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The Cards promoted a couple of wonks, Girsch and Majdl. Looking at their bios, I doubt either has ever held a bat. Good grief.
You’re right Bling, but I’ll bet you they can kick your tail if you played them in MLB2011 on a PS3.
The own teams broadcasters? Are they whack?
I don’t know who said what, but I wouldn’t give you a cup of old yellow vitamin enriched urine for Al’s opinion on anything. I liked him when he played because he wasn’t afraid to be a little different and he was fun to watch but I can hardly listen to him as an announcer. I’m not positive he has one clue what is going on at many points in the game. Did I say I can’t stand him?
I hear ya. There are a lot of awful announcers out there-many of them are far from expert on the sports they cover, and often can’t even pronounce the players names correctly, and know virtually nothing about them, especially the opposing teams players.. I think they have even less expertise than some of the baseball writers do.
Yeah, Al annoys me too.
I know a guy who calls the FSMW crew the 3M’s… Marble Mouth (Al) and Milquetoast (Dan)… And even though I love listenening to Shannon, I have to laugh when he tries to pronounce Spanish surnames.
I enjoy it when former Cards players hang around in whatever capacity. I don’t care all that much if he’s good or bad, but he’s ok with me. I hope Jack Clark pops back up.
If you are anywhere near Mexico, Jeff City, Sedalia or Moberly, MO on January 15-16, you can catch Jack with the Cardinals Caravan. All pants will be poopy-free. For whatever reason, Fredbird isn’t traveling with Jack’s caravan. Perhaps it is a penalty…
Well I don’t want to go if there is no Fredbird.
Besides I don’t care for Jack Clark and while I am sure Mitchell Boggs, Lance Lynn and PJ Walters are fine guys, they are not enough to get me to the Truman Hotel on a Saturday evening. Now if Waino were there, I’d be camped out the day before. 
Hussy!
Brian — What do you know about the work Michael Girsch has been doing? In other words, what are the responsibilities of the Director of Baseball Development? Press reporting says Mejdal & Girsch worked on a system called Redbird Dog 2.0, a tool that combines analytics, scouting reports & video. Since Mejdal is a SABR guy, I’m guessing Girsch might have been the scouting/video lead on that project.
Sig Mejdal looks like Luhnow II, a guy who hasn’t played ball since Little League & whose core skill set includes playing fantasy baseball and unrelated advanced degrees. No doubt he’s an intelligent guy, an engineer (aeronautical/mechanical) who’s worked for Lockheed and NASA. Nothing against engineers, I’m one, but that doesn’t qualify me to evaluate young players & project their ability to become major leaguers. It’s much easier to evaluate skills at the MLB level than projecting who might get there.
The front office is filling up with businessmen & engineers, but where in the Sam Hill are the baseball lifers… people who know the game from playing it and being in the trenches every day? Guys like Marty Marion don’t have spiffy degrees from the Chicago Business School, UC-Davis or the Wharton School of Business, but I’ll take an old baseball hand like Whitey or Walt over these guys any day. Analytics and stats have a place in the game, but aren’t sufficient by themselves. They have to be rooted in real knowledge of the game, especially so since the future of this franchise is in their hands.
Dont think Luhnow played in Little League
The Little League reference was to Mejdal. Luhnow was in ‘La Liga de Empresarios’…
la Liga de empujadores de lápiz
Good stuff bb!!
Girsch coordinated amateur scouting and most recently was Sig’s boss. So Girsch moved into Abbamondi’s job and Sig was moved up into his.
I don’t understand why some people can get worked up over two jobs in an organization with dozens of people of varying backgrounds, including a quotient of guys who once wore spikes.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie-miklasz/article_fd783c83-1c34-566d-9584-8930ef479b8a.html
Bernie sure is stirring the pot………..tightening up those tethers………….. I actually see this as AP baiting…………….. just a bunch of old Tobacco chewing vets…….looking for a leader.
More of the polarizations that get the talk radio listeners fired up and calling in. Players that get on base and play defense aren’t hustlers and don’t care. Get more gritty guys and their stats don’t matter. What was wrong with last year’s team was the SABR emphasis, so they fixed that. Right. Let’s see. Of the dozen or so guys from last year’s team that departed, how many were Luhnow-drafted guys? How about none. I’ve got six drafted since 2005 on my projected 2011 opening day roster.
Also interesting to see the old “Don Tony” label whipped out early for emphasis but “DeWallet” is apparently remaining in the top drawer until Albert and money come up again. Now that Rams season is over, that should be about tomorrow, I figure.
I’m wondering how far Mo (and to a certain extent LaRussa) have stuck their neck’s out? Is another non-playoff appearance after giving TLR “what he wants” a reason to start talking about Mo’s job security?
Personally, I thought ownership and Mo gave TLR a better team in 2010 than was shown on the field, injuries and other problems or not, but I guess at least one view says in hindsight that it wasn’t enough TLR’s team to be successful. Confidence in Mo was displayed when he was given a three-year contract extension in July. With TLR so close to his career goal, I believe the basic course for the 2011 and 2012 years is already set (with the big “if” being Pujols’ contract). I can’t see any major management changes for at least two more years unless there is a major, major collapse (far worse than 86 wins and a five-game division deficit). Even if another playoff miss, there will be surely injuries or other problems to point to. Going through any season without problems is impossible, so there are always reasons to fall back on / excuses to be made (whether one is a half-full or empty kind of person). The question will be whether this year’s team can overcome the adversity, whatever it may be. The 2010 team clearly had nothing left by September. Mo is under contract through 2013.
If the team had stayed healthy, the front line guys were good enough to win the Central last year. But good health was not in the ‘Cards’. Injuries to two starting pitchers and two key run producers (and the trade of one of them) exposed a lack of depth in the upper reaches of the minors. And when a big part of the Memphis backups failed to contribute positively (Greene, Mather, Stavinoha, Craig, Walters, Ottavino, MacLane) the team went dumpster diving.
Only Jay and Salas, among those who came up in-season contributed anything of real value in 2010. Not to say some of the others won’t do better in the future, but they were a bust last year. Luhnow paid for that failure… even if some don’t want to admit it.
Yes, Luhnow drafts netted Jaime & Colby, other complimentary players and guys that were traded in ’09. But what impact player beyond those two? More importantly, who are the impact players now in 2A-3A that will be ready to help the team in 2011 or even 2012?
There were other problems too… Mozielak’s inactivity in the minor league free agent market, down years by Ryan, Skip & Yadi at the plate, etc. But the glaring issue is depth, an issue Jeff Luhnow has been empowered to address.
I dunno HB. If the big issue is depth as you say, then why does Mo seem content to go with four farm guys off the bench again in 2011 and young pitchers in Memphis? Will it be Luhnow’s fault if the kids don’t contribute or will it have been Mo’s fault for not signing more veteran reinforcements before the shelves were bare?* Or would it be TLR’s fault for not managing the mix of players better?
Or more realistically, is it some indeterminable combination of all of them? Where I think CC was going is that the GM is usually the one ultimately responsible since that is where it all comes together.
* Update: While there is still time for signings, as I have pointed out already, the Cardinals have added just one minor league free agent this entire winter, far fewer than any other of the 30 orgs. So why do all the other organizations, most with better farm systems according to prospect watchers, still add depth when the Cardinals do not? Is that on Luhnow or Mo?
I wonder if this doesn’t get down to a difference in view of who is in charge. On paper, the manager and farm director report to the GM. I sense that HB may think the farm director is calling some key shots on his own, however.
Brian — Why does Mo seem to be content to go with 4 farm guys on the bench? It’s money… fear of the unknown Pujols contract. That’s why the team went cheap on the bench last year and appears to be set to do the same this year. Money and a belief that the guys in 3A were actually ready to help, but really weren’t. That gets into the area I talked about the other day, a tendency in the organization to over-value our own minor league players.
Agree that the responsibility, for either success or failure, is shared.
I thought there were two MiLB FA signings. That Cuban lefty from the Mets and Augenstein. Maybe I’m not classifying them properly as MiLB FA’s.
Augenstein was a waiver claim and is a member of the 40-man roster.
How much do you think a minor league free agent costs compared to one day of Albert Pujols’ salary? Orders of magnitude difference.
Further, minor league free agents are signed for just one season. Pujols salary for 2011 is set. His new contract should not come into play until 2012.
I agree that MiLB FA is an underutlizied area that needs more attention. I’m guessing that it wasn’t aggressively pursued because the team believed it had talent in the pipeline to fill its needs.
That addresses part two.. not just money, but over-valuing internal talent. That may touch on SABR and over-reliance on stats. I’ve got issues with accuracy of things like WAR and some of the defensive measurements. When there is wide fluctuation between the different modern methods of grading defense looking at the same player, and wide fluctuations in grades of a player from year to year… that points to issues of inaccurary or problems with reliability, IMO.
Brian — I wouldn’t say Luhnow is calling shots on his own. However, a guy with responsibility for scouting, the draft, international development and the minor leagues (until recently) has a huge (almost total) influence on the flow of cost-controlled players to the team from the minor leagues, or the failure to produce that flow.
Bottom line is that Luhnow was empowered and promoted by BDII. He call’s the shots and pays the bills.
Luhnnow got his wings clipped last year after his empire failed to adequately support the team’s needs in-season or this off-season. No starting pitchers to replace Penny/Lohse, no third baseman to replace Freese, no run-producing RF to replace Ludwick, no LH relief pitcher, no SS to replace Ryan, no second baseman to replace Skip (for those who think that is necessary), and no backup catcher. That’s a stunning list. Surely, at least ONE of those needs could have been filled by a farm product. But were they? No, every one was filled by going outside our system… Laird, Theriot, Berkman, Westbrook, Feliz, Talet… and from what I can see, that list is likely to grow.
HB, you have no idea why Luhnow’s “wings were clipped”. Nor do I. We’re now heading into Jumbo territory where personal assumptions and biases are misrepresented as fact. That is about the time I bow out of the discussion.
Why is it that nobody ever addresses the factual basis contained in that ‘wings clipped’ paragraph? The team’s needs are almost all being addressed outside the farm system and it’s not just because TLR hates young players, which is overly simplistic and ignores the actual peformance of the farmhands who were used last year. He likes young players who perform consistently and dislikes those who don’t… not hard to understand, IMO.
Maybe because it starts out with a statement asserted as fact that has no basis in the facts (at least as the public knows them). I challenged you in another thread to show this to be true but you didnt respond.
The other thing you assert as fact is one that cant be proved either way is that there is no one available to meet those needs. How do we know before the fact. If not given a chance we will never know.
Why is it that you don’t understand that the farmhands don’t perform consistently because TLR doesn’t play them enough so they can? They play well in AAA, then they are brought up and played half a dozen times intermittently and TLR says, well he’s no good send him back. TLR doesn’t want them to play well HB. Colby has played well which is why TLR is stuck with him until he finds a way to sabotage him and get rid of him.
TLR wants the veterans outside the organization. This has always been his MO.
I would take issue with this HB. Some do well because if TLR likes you he doesn’t ride you into the ground. The failures all have similar stories about the constant ridicule and negativism. He may intend to help them but his method seems to not be conducive to good play. What causes him to like one guy while not liking another is the wild card.
CC — I’m working on a response to your Luhnow question. When our recent discussions started generating more heat than light, I decided to give it a rest for a few days. You’ll get your answer… in spades!
Last year, Nick, Mather, Craig, Jay, Greene, Descalso, Hamilton, Hill, Anderson and Pagnozzi had a total of 808 AB’s. Miles, Winn and Feliz, a total of 403. Can anyone say, with a straight face, that 403 is more than 808? Or that farmhands didn’t get a shot?
It’s true that some got more opportunity than others. Guys who did well were rewarded with playing time. Guys like Jay. Those who didn’t do well had less opportunity and had ots of chances to see I-55. Doesn’t matter what they did in 3A if they can’t translate it to MLB. There are tons of 4A players in the world… and in our system, apparently.
Those needs were not filled from the farm system because TLR doesn’t want them to be. He wants the Lairds, Theriots and Berkmans etc, and Mo gave them to him. He got Colby from the farm system and wants to get rid of him. Now that we have Berkman, Jon Jay will get little playing time and will probably be traded at some point. Anderson never had a chance at backup catcher because TLR didn’t want him. It’s very hard to provide farm system talent to fill in holes when your manager doesn’t want them.
I think you may be surprised Crdswmn. Jon Jay will, imo, get a bunch of time in CF this year. Jon rates right up there with Skip on TLR’s love a player scale so CR will be gone before Jay will. Just watch. I expect Tony to ride Colby into submission this year and force Mo to move him.
So what magic did Jon use to endear himself to TLR? The young guys are usually the bottom of the barrel in TLR’s eyes.
No question TLR will do everything he can to get rid of Colby.
Latin=Albert likes=TLR likes.
Okey dokey.
Tony didnt let them play so they are no good. He let MacDougal pitch so he was good. Dont you get it?
CC, you are starting to catch on.
Tex, how good does a player have to be to considered successful as a bench player?
Better than Greene, Nick, Mather, Craig, Lopez, and LaRue were last year. Good enough to contribute to team wins when called upon. None of those guys did that consistently last year. Flip had moments, the rest not so much.
Sounds equally distributed between farm hands and non-farm hands. So why blame Luhnow?
Because the farmhands last year failed disproportionately. Only Jay and Salas can be seen as successes last year. Stay tuned. I’ve got a manifesto on this topic coming, relating to our earlier discussion…
Ruh Roh.
hmmmm……..Criticizing Luhnow for holes Mo created? Trading Ryan and Ludwick for marginal minor leaguers and replacing them with more expensive players that are no better?
Again, Your strawman that the players aren’t there is just that.
If it makes you feel better, I’ll agree there is no LH reliever ready to step in (that $750K we are paying Tallent is really breaking the bank too – though Mo should have paid twice that and brought in Scherril.)
Major league teams regularly eat millions of dollars of bad contracts a year. The fact that Mo would have to be paid a couple of million to be let go will probably have bearing little bearing on any decision to retain him or not.
I dunno. HB is trying to convince us that money is so tight, they can’t even afford to sign a few minor league free agents…
That’s not my position. When I talked about going cheap on the bench last year and maybe this year with farmhands, I was saying farmhands as as opposed to signing experienced MLB-type players to fill bench roles.
I agree with you about the need to explore the MiLB market and I don’t think expense is a factor there at all.
Tex, we spent $3 million on a bench middle infielder this Winter. Unfortunately they signed him to be a starter. They also spent $8 million on a guy who would probably best suited to be on our bench.
For the sake of our team, I hope you’re wrong. I wouldn’t describe either Berkman or Theriot as a bench player and their entire history supports me on that.
For the sake of our team, I hope you’re wrong. I wouldn’t describe either Berkman or Theriot as a bench player and their entire MLB history supports me on that.
My take is Mo is following orders from above in cowtowing to Tony. IMO, Tony would be gone if it was up to Mo.
Bling, I think you are right on. But like WC always writes…………the money is in keeping things how they are because the seats are filled and the cardinals won’t sell any more tickets if they win the World Series. The safe play is to keep things like they are now. Change can only hurt attendance and therefore hurt the money flow. The Cardinals have sold over 3 million tickets these last 4 years and they haven’t had a team that had a snowballs chance of winning a World Series.
So they don’t make enough more money being in the playoffs or becoming world champs to bother with it, so it is better to just make a window dressing attempt and fail? Not getting that one.
Well I thought Bling was making an attempt to say that BD was the reason Tony was still the manager and I was agreeing with him. And the reasons were the ones I listed.
I’m sure BD is making a nice profit right now and why would you gamble by changing managers while you are making money in a down economy? If you gamble and make a bunch of changes and they don’t work then you don’t make money and you appear to be a dummy.
So i believe TLR is the manager because BD doesn’t want to rock the money boat.
I agree that DeWitt makes the managerial decision.
Do I think it has anything to do with money? No, unless you mean keeping Pujols. They would sell 3 million tickets if RC was the manager and could save about $4 million per year on his salary in the process. No one buys a ticket to see TLR. Keeping TLR not only is viewed as giving them the best chance to win, it also keeps Albert happy and at least until he is signed, that has to remain concern #1.
I wasn’t gonna bring that up until somebody else did. There is no doubt Tony is still around because of Albert. Albert runs this ship, that has been written about many times.
You mentioned nobody buys a ticket to watch TLR, but they do Albert. And Albert will do or say whatever to keep Tony where he is. I believe Tony to be the reason Albert wouldn’t sign early. And that one thing is why Mo trying to do this or that for team chemistry is a waste of time. WC has mentioned it before.
Albert/TLR are attached at the hip.
So does that mean we are stuck with TLR until Albert retires? If so, I am going to need that rubber room they have at the local mental institute.
BDW is a businessman and undoubtedly knows that it is always a mistake to let anyone become indispensible to a business. It puts him in a position now, trying to negotiate with Albert, that he knows is not a good one. Its a negotiation he is not in a position to win. I think his response was to spend $8M to hire Berkman, an attempt to dent Albert’s position as the one thing DeWit’s company can’t do without. Absurd, yes, but born of desperation, and perhaps the only thing he could do but sign over the team and ride out of town. Its an attempt to communicate to Albert’s camp the idea that he is not indispensible. The question is whether he really believes that or is just posturing.
In any event, once the Albert issue resolves one way or the other, it will be interesting to see what kind of direction the org takes, and who takes it there.
Brian………BD took over the team in 2007………a season for himself was coming to an end in 2008. He was fully involved since that point in his quasi retirement, running the Cardinals himself to express his personal power. It had been proven to him in 2006 that winning had nothing to do with paying baseball players………. he took over…………….he is running an business in which the Cardinals are just the central apparatus for doing “his” business…………………. as you have an affection for “numerology”………………so does he……………….. He will leave a Cardinal Village if he can. The likelihood that he is even concerned with winning is laughable…………..AP……..the league……….. you don’t think that they see ….and predict his moves………..Lozano..Tony…friends..they have all told AP as much. …………… He is dictating the appearance of Cardinals intension’s……………anyone that knows the game sees what he is about.
The issue is……the challenge is ….keeping attendance up…….without raising the bottom line.
To someone that knows business…..and politics…..he was exposed rather harshly recently. I’m not going to rant on that until it suits me……
Look at how deep the Phillies have gone just to stay viable………. you don’t hire MM to be your hitting coach……..for baseball reasons…………
If BD can get AP………..at his price…………he already has in place an excuse for never winning…….one lackey coach after the next trying to feed AP statistical opportunities………selling the records runs with apologies for second place finishes………….. don’t forget, the Reds collapsed this year down the stretch……..we we just no where is sight…….. not trying all combination possible because some of them would/could have made their sham moves look bad……………. worried about appearancees even in loosing.
One thing that is 100% correct is TLR is all about Albert and doing whatever possible to make sure he puts up big numbers and remains on course for his HOF date in Cardinals attire.
I also agree about MM. There was no way he was gonna be a good hitting coach without any prior experience. It was yet another example of Tony doing a friend a favor. It happens all the time with players on the team as well. Thats where Mo has his work cut out for him in trying to develop some team chemistry.
I don’t understand this idea that statistical analysis is somehow a culprit and bad. It’s a tool, one of many tools, that smart and well run organizations use. I guess the point is ‘Tony knows best.’ and has set out to prove it. Meanwhile, the organization promotes two men who are organizational statistical analysts. Odd move if you ask me. Someone didn’t get the memo that they aren’t looking at numbers I guess.
SABR didn’t kill last years team-LaRussa did. He had dust ups with Carpenter, Pujols, Rasmus, Ludwick, and Ryan. He wanted, and they got him a pitcher with a precarious health record in Penny without making a corresponding move to add sufficient depth. So now they will remake the team to suit their leader-because their leader can ONLY work with a certain kind of player. And they still haven’t taken care of the center field problem. LaRussa also requires a player be put in the doghouse; I guess they have to keep Rasmus around for that. Lucky him.
When are people going to figure out that LaRussa just isn’t a good manager anymore? He hasn’t been for a few years. I’m beside myself here, and I have a hard time understanding why the fans settle for robot-like emotionless players they have been putting on the field.
My biggest concern is that the masses that either don’t have the time, interest or smarts to think for themselves see this printed in their Sunday paper and blindly accept it as the way it is and should be.
Brian, they already think that! LaRussa is the genius, everyone else is a stupid, no nothing geek.
And shame on Bernie anyway. He often writes and talks about and uses advanced statistics. He should heap scorn on himself for not being old school enough and actually sometimes using the same parameters SABR guys use to judge players. Talk about talking out of both sides of your mouth.
Is the position being represented that of the columnist or his interpretation of the views of the manager? Depending on how the season unfolds, it can either be remembered in hindsight as having been dead on accurate or can be damned as a failure. Both doors seem to have been skillfully left open.
Westie would be proud.
There’s…………… a………………. little………………. WC…………… in…………….. us……………. all……………
MM- not everybody thinks TLR walks on watwer.I like TLR and realize he makes mistakes and make me scratch my head at times.That said IMO he still is the guy i want managing the team.
You don`t manage 30 plus years by being dumb.Just because some keyboard jockey with a bashers agenda wants you to quit is no reason to hang it up.
Tony is far from a dummy. He is as smart as any manager in the ML’s. His biggest flaw is probably that he feels the need to have an impact on every game even though that direct managerial impact may not be needed. He believes imo that the players can’t win without his expertise and thats where he may be a little off.
And furthermore, I don’t believe Tony should quit and believe, as I’ve previously stated that Mo has given Tony his best group in the last 4 years for Tony to work his matchup magic with.
Bw, never did I use the word “dumb.” I used the words “not good.” There is quite a big difference between your word choice and mine.
You don’t agree with me, and that’s fine. But I will ask you not to put words in my mouth that I did not say, nor imply.
MM- I have a hard time understanding how a so-called rational person can say TLR isn`t a good manager anymore.The team is in contention yearly working under tight fiscal limits.Now you bashers will say : its not enough to be in contention:……………… well you got to be in contention to win the division and then go another step.Last years team was hurt badly by injuries and several players performing well below career norms.Is that TLRs fault?
As for taking care of the CF problem-the CF should shut up and play ball.How many other teams have players that the manager prefers? I venture to say almost all teams.
As for stats doesn`t TLR have his own stats pertaining to matchups and situations.
So simply saying TLR is not a good manager anymore is just YOUR OPINION and not even remotely based on fact.
I find it amusing that someone calls people out for what they read in the paper .Who are you Brian ?The voice in the wilderness screaming ” i know all and speak my version as i see it”.
I believe there are two sides to every story and sometimes speak up when I perceive an imbalance. Since this is my blog, it seems an appropriate place to comment on the article to which WC linked.
I made no criticisms of the manager in any of the posts here in this thread. Some seem to come into discussions with hot buttons or pre-determined notions.
Brian-to me you are discrediting the average fan.IMO you run towards the negative slant a lot.Its your blog so do what you want.
Bw, I bet we agree that neither you nor I are the “average” nor are we probably qualified to say who they are. My hope is that all fans take the time to look at issues from all sides, but realistically that doesn’t happen. In hindsight, I may have discredited talk radio callers, some of whom I find can hold extreme opinions. I am sorry if you are among those I swiped with my wide brush.
I perceive there is an abundance of sources that only report on the positive or lean hard in that direction and for many people, that is great. That is what they want. I try to consider all angles here and sometimes that is not all roses and sunshine. When I do take a contrary position, I always strive to do it in a professional manner. You won’t find name-calling in my articles, for example, as I try to disagree with viewpoints, rather than people.
As you well know, everyone is welcome to comment here with opinions from all points of view. There won’t be agreement but as long as the discussions remain civil, I remain just fine with that. Carry on!
Brian-You are right about being average fan.Not a superfan live breathe and cry over every game.A longtime fan who realizes baseball ranks several spots down on lifes important things.Love the Cards and realize life in Cardland isn`t always sunshine apple pie.
I would hope a rational person would be able to figure out that
every story has a little gray and isn`t always simply black and white.
Maybe i am giving the average joe too much credit ………………………maybe average joe doesn`t care about how much it costs to sign so and so………………………..just sign him.Every story is deeper than headline…………………..although not as far out as Westy takes them sometimes.
Agree on all points!
Tight fiscal limits? How’s that kool-aid?
The Cards are never among top spenders, are they? Generally in about the 10th spot, out of 30 clubs. That’s not the Pirates, but not the Phillies, Cubs or Yankees either…
CC you are speaking to the most loyal Ray Charlesish cardinal fan on the planet. There is no chance of making a rational argument with Ray either. He sees the game through TLR’s eyes.
RC — Stop that squawking and flipping out on the net!
What can I say HB, I’m a squawker. And I like to do flips when I squawk.
Of course it’s my opinion. I do not think he’s a good manager any longer. He cannot get the team through adversity, he cannot manage players that aren’t his “type” of players, he has public spats with players and has had some with others in the organization. Anyone remember when he referred to John Mozeliak as “just one of 30 guys?” Or when he said the fans make him want to vomit? Or watched him at his post game press conferences-you know, the ones that ML baseball requires after games-lashing out at legitimate and illegitimate questions from the press?
Sorry, I don’t think he’s a good manager any longer. There are several managers that did more with less as recent as last season. I don’t enjoy the lay back and lets wait for the home run style of baseball they play. Or the players joyless, emotionless, demeanor on the field. Would it kill anyone if a Cardinal player smiled once in awhile?
It’s killing me because I used to live and die with this team. I’m not willing to give the Cardinals my unconditional love any longer. I’m lucky that I don’t have to. I get the MLB package and get to see other teams and other games. Shame on me for not drinking the kool aid.
You are wasting your time MM. When you speak ill of TLR BW sees that as spitting in his face. By that I mean BW’s face. And I say that with love in my heart BW
Well, I don’t spit in faces. Momma told me that’s a bad bad thing to do. I did just listen to Lucinda Williams CD “Car Wheels on a Gravel Road” this morning, and I feel like the song “Joy” perfectly describes how I feel about now.
I think I just better step away from the keyboard.
Ha ha, no need to step away imo. You are just BW’s mirror image at present and just understand that he is a more argumentative antagonist.
RCW-I am Ray Charles or argumentative.
RCW- I am not Ray Charles like or argumentative.Told you so.
Yes, MM that is the question some here fail to see. The fact that TLR was once a great manager doesn’t necessarily mean he currently is.
I’ve used the analogy before but I repeat it. Bobby Knight was great for Indiana University basketball, it was also (past) time for him to move on.
CC- Just because you see things that way doesn`t make it a fact.
Don’t look now but you are making an argument?
As Bobby Bowden would say BW, Well Dad Gum, why are you picking on the CF?
I always start from the premise that any thing said by the PD guys is questionable, no matter what position they take. It has been my experience that writing stories to get people fired up about something is more important than just giving us the news. It didn’t use to be that way but today I just can’t fully trust anything these guys say. Some are worse than others. So, I go outside the PD to places like this blog to get my information. Since I watch (and score) all 162 games every year, I trust my eyes and my baseball knowledge and a little bit of intuition to make my judgments. That is not to say that I don’t pay attention to the opinions of others who I respect and who I believe are telling me what they know and not what they think others want to hear (like you Brian).
Whether SABR is the answer or not, I have no opinion as yet because I haven’t seen enough of its use to form an opinion one way or the other. I do believe the intangibles are important, such as team chemistry, and imo TLR is very bad at them. I don’t have a problem with using matchups when appropriate, but TLR uses them WAY too much and has lost a good number of games soley for that reason. I have said I am old school, and nothing irritates me more than when TLR takes out a starting pitcher who is doing well in the later innings, to bring in a pitcher to pitch to one batter. I could go on, but then I will be getting into HB territory and that would be bad.
It is not far fetched to percieve some degree of disconnect between Mo-Luhnow and the young guns on the one hand, and Tony on the other. Bernie’s take on it as it relates to this off-season seems reasonable, but obviously not the only possible take.
Tony is known to manage by the numbers, and I don’t think he shuns the SABR approach. He recognizes, based upon his experience as a baseball guy, that a lot depends on things that are not reflected in the stats, and he factors that in. So, in his mind, Theriot is better than Ryan. Berkman in RF makes sense. Etc. The disconnect may have to do with Tony’s propensity to use subjective factors which cannot be measured with numbers, to dispute and overrule purely objective stats based positions.
Of course, there are opinions as to just how good Tony is at factoring in those intangibles, but it should be agreed that the organization does need to have that capacity. Tony, I think, is having trouble keeping that fact from getting overrun by the wave of pencil pushers.
I like Bernie’s columns and radio show. This article is an example of why.
It is certainly accomplishing one likely objective, which is to get people talking.
Yes, and hopefully, thinking.
I can’t speak for anyone but myself… but my issues with Luhnow isn’t SABR or statistics, but with inexperience in baseball… To put a guy in charge of scouting, the draft, the farm system (until recently) and international development… a guy who had no baseball experience before 2003 outside playing fantasy games, is a move that was highly questionable at best.
SABR has a place in baseball, but it also needs to be balanced against, and incorporated with, methods that sustained the game before Bill James came upon the scene.
No one is going to disagree with the need for balance. Who is objective enough to know for sure what the problem is? Is it the mindset of the people in the organization or an improper mix of scouting and stats or something else? The proper formula (if it exists) is all guesswork from the outside and may even be from within.
To lay all the blame (or praise) on one person, Luhnow, seems overly simplistic and ignores the dozens of people in the organization like scouts and coaches who take great pride in their work. Sure, the boss is accountable, but he doesn’t do his job in a vacuum.
I dont totally disagree with you but it makes more sense once someone has the job to judge to judge tehm on their results rather than their resume.
HB, I believe Luhnow’s biggest failure has been the drafting of players based on some computer mode as far as pitchers go, or college hitters based on their statistics. There is a place for the computer but there is also a place for the eye of an experienced scout. But when it comes down to a conflict between the computer and the eye of the scout the computer always wins. The high upside guy doesn’t always rate highly on the computer.
RC, I may agree with your broad point, but am less sure about the reasons why.
Back a few years, it was speculated that more of the safer-type college picks were being made because they needed to restock the system. I haven’t seen a marked change in the drafts since but am not sure it is either because of data or lack of it.
I think money could also be a factor. College seniors cost a lot less to sign than having to throw money at a high school kid with choices to try to convince him not to attend college. There has also been more resources pumped into Latin America in recent years.
I am not saying that data isn’t a factor, but I think the equation is more complicated than that.
Update: Until the last two years with Miller and Cox, the Cards avoided paying over MLB’s slot “recommendations”. If ownership made that dictate, it would have limited the pool of players available to select.
The professionals watch events in the Caribbean much differently than you probably think….
Local “business people” watch the professional compounds with interest…………..what “cousins” come and go………… were they impregnated?……..bloodlines?………… it has become that……….
Socially free of many US contaminates………those societies are poor but relatively stable compared to the mysteries that now surround our culture………. Give a high school kid a wad of doe, and things don’t go along so smoothly……………if a kid can stay focused through college………..much less risk……… more maturity………a kid that may make a good minor league player……… aren’t we good from that view point?……………
All of our contractual obligations were to “effect AP”………… if you examine them, minimum outlay of cash intended to create the biggest pro Tony illusion…………without actually risking that most horrible side effect………..winning………………… it is to expensive to win………if AP plays lame duck……….on a winner………that is the most expensive scenario……….. Theriot for a year……..Berkman for a year, out come almost inevitable………… Tony didn’t choose these guys………they were on a “menu ” of moves BD/Mo might consider…………… they are chump change against the 60/80 large that represent the salary gap for AP………. Tony knows he is gone if AP walks…………unless he wins……….with or without him………. If you recognize the emotions that AP was expressing as he passed into no-trade land…….. try to imagine the environment that he was “aware of “………… Some men know the future…..because they are creating it………….BD is one of them………….. Selig would like to see Prince in a congested market in 2012……… Boston has gone to some trouble to make Gonzales look like he may end up there………….. BD might figure to do well in that FA market……..bad economy, at least a 50/50 chance AP eats it in 2011, do to injury or self inflicted emotional trauma……… remember…..when he does well, teams just play around him, creating pressures on his teammates…….further eroding and magnifying his personal delusions………….. a proven tactic……… Tony has chosen players that stand to respond to this very scenario…….. the likely one…………lets hope he was right…………….. in the end…….he may have to beat BD who will likely intervene against a winner…………that was true this year…….whether you could see it or not………
his bottom line is “cash flow”……………………….. not as much about profit, as the need to be in control of what his Father couldn’t…………he is a cultural/political activist above all else.
The Cards started to tilt more in favor of college draftees from 1980, when Whitey Herzog took over as GM and Fred McAlister as head of amateur recruitment. This continued under Jocketty.
Luhnow and Mo have built upon this tradition, not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. They improved this approach a bit and poured more money into scouting and data analysis. And went strongly into the Dominican, after trailing virtually all other teams, and stayed in Venezuela when other teams fled Chavez. They are even starting to find a few interesting Latin players, still low in the system.
Not everyone who works for the team needs to be an ex-jock. As well-educated business people, the DeWitts understand this and are unsentimental about mythology about baseball guys.
Abbamondi for instance was an ex-Navy pilot. He could help on contracts and be another smart guy to help Mo where-ever needed.
Girsch must be in the same vein. He is a smart guy who can help out with business decisions, the nexus of money and performance.
DeWitt and Mo are rewarding people who have worked diligently, such as Vuch, Girsch, and Sig. Its nice to reward people who do a good job.
The Cards did not find Jaime Garcia with sabremetrics. They found him by hiring another scout to cover Texas and listening to the scout. Old fashioned hard work.
The Cards have named their ranking of amateurs, St-out. It combines statistics and scouting of tools. Not one along, but both.
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I read this and I started hearing the Twilight Zone theme ringing in my head.
RC — You hit the nail on the head! Agree completely.
I thought the article was spot on.
bb — This is some of the best, most balanced analysis I’ve seen from you on this or any topic… Good stuff!
Is the recent chucking of the tinfoil hat (your’s and the dog’s) to blame/credit?
Kind words HB, I’ll tip one back to your health and happiness. My dog will too. The truth is, there is little need for protection in the middle of Winter, plenty of time to recover my sensibilities before spring. Once pitchers and catchers report, I’ll be back to my old self.
Sabre metrics are a tool……………………. An MRI scanner is a tool………..
Give the medicine man an MRI scanner………show him how to use it……….in the end he will just say,” I knew that. I could see the those things”. He would prescribe a ceremony, and possibly a dietary change…………….. to much yak butter? A doctor who uses the scanner to its top potential………
will tell you a thousand procedures you might have……… profiting by all of them………in the end, if he liked you, he would just say, “stop eating so much Yak butter”.
Walter J. just spent 2/3 large for a guy that can see clearly when other people don’t…….metrics be damned…………………………………Tony uses statistic. In times of stress, self doubt moves him toward using them as a buffer against accountability……………….. its complicated. They are still playing with horse hide for some reason……….and wood bats……… struggling to be adequate in their fathers- fathers eyes………………………..
The polarizing duality of this very common condition, pervades all of society. It is the narrowing of the human emotional spectrum by limiting accountability, and more importantly, restricting perceptual/sensory viability…………… watching too much video? maybe? relying on non emotional evaluators to validate a need to establish territory……. where no territory can be identified…………..
On the field……..the ball hurts…….in the face…..in the gut…….the cleats are sharp………contact is violent……the wall is hard at speed…………..but the money buys real ‘territory”…….with reproductive exclusivity (sometimes)….. Statistics are a by product of this age old “contest”….. can they predict things about it ?……….sure………. Keep it in perspective………….
BR was in the Club house, not the BC…….. there are issues….. let him go…….Theriot fits a Cardinal need……to be in control……..showing that you know what it is you need……….. it has nothing to do with baseball…..just appearances………don’t worry about it……..maybe he’s lucky…………..
This is some great sunday reading right here WC. Good stuff.
I was working on this the last few days for use in my continuing discussion with CC, but it’s on point to several posts here today… crdswmn will hate it because it’s long and more complex than ‘it’s all TLR’s fault’, but what the heck!
‘…Tony and Mo didn’t put the guys [from] Memphis on the roster, going with retreads instead… this year we most likely will open with Craig, Jay, Greene, Descalso… [and a] pitcher from Memphis… if they are on the roster Tony and Mo must think they are ready…’
More likely TLR/Mo hope they’re ready, and expect better performances than last year. If they contribute they’ll stay on the 25-man, if not, they’ll be replaced. Staying with the team all year is the ultimate vote of confidence, not starting the year on the team. I wouldn’t write your bench roster in stone yet either. There’s talk that Mo is looking for a #6 starter and an IF who can play 3B/SS, guys who might be available cheap if they aren’t signed before spring training or get cut. This is necessary IMO because available depth at 3A is even shakier this year, particularly at middle IF & 3B.
The idea that guys from Memphis didn’t get a shot last year isn’t well founded. Start with the opening day roster, which included Freese, Garcia, Stavinoha, Craig and Mather, all guys who spent parts of ‘09 or ‘10 in Memphis. Later additions included seven position players (Jay, Greene, Descalso, Hamilton, Hill, Anderson & Pagnozzi) and 4 pitchers (Walters, Ottavino, Salas & MacLane). For purposes of this depth discussion, I’m going to exclude Jaime & Freese (starters), LaRue & Lopez (no time in Memphis) and include Nick, Craig & Mather (all spent time in Memphis, Craig/Mather considerable time).
The entire bench from opening day failed miserably. LaRue hit .196 with a .596 OPS. Flip had moments, but hit .231 with a .651 OPS and played poor defense. Nick hit .256 with a .625 OPS, but his 2 HR/9 RBI were lame considering he was our top pinch hitter. He contributed little defensively. Mather hit .217 with a .525 OPS. Craig hit .246 with a .711 OPS, but had a BA over .220 for just 8 days, the last 8 games of the season. Greene hit .221 with a .625 OPS and played poor defense. He was handed the starting SS job in July when Ryan was benched but handed it right back. Jay played in StL 4+ months, hitting .300 with a .780 OPS, but faded badly down the stretch. The catchers hit well, but none played very much. They combined for 74 total AB’s. Andy hit .281 with a .658 OPS but his receiving/game calling were suspect. Hill hit .333 with a 1.667 OPS but only had 3 at-bats, his ony hit a HR. Pagnozzi hit a surprising .359 with a .892 OPS and was the most solid defensively, but none did well controlling the running game. Descalso & Hamilton were Sept. call-ups. Management evidently thought they were best served playing every day in Memphis rather than sporadically in StL. Descalso hit .265 with a .648 OPS. Hamilton hit .143 with a .343 OPS. Both looked good defensively. Among pitchers, Salas threw 30.2 innings with a 3.52 ERA. Walters threw 30 innings with a 6.00 ERA, but was above 7.00 until his Sept. start. Ottavino threw 22.1 innings with an 8.46 ERA and got hurt. MacLane pitched 1 inning with a 9.00 ERA.
Salas & Jay had the most success. Nick was so-so as a singles-hitting pinch-hitter and contributed little else. Hamilton, Hill, & Descalso had limited opportunities. Pags & Andy hit well, but were incomplete defensively. Mather, Craig, Greene, Walters, Ottavino and MacLane all failed, the lowest ERA among them was Walters’ 6.00 and the highest BA/OPS was Craig’s .246/.711, mostly resulting from an 8-game surge at the end of the year. There’s your ‘depth’, including the MLB bench and everyone who came up from Memphis. As a result of the failures, the team picked up 5 veterans in-season: Miles on June 1st, Winn June 5th, Suppan June 15th, MacDougal July 28th, and Feliz August 21st. Question is, did they improve the team? No doubt Suppan did. He replaced Ottavino or Walters in the rotation. His 3.83 ERA was excellent compared to Otto’s 8.46 & Walters’ 6.00, plus he went deeper into games than either, even though not stretched out as a starter. MacDougal didn’t help. He had a few good outings, then struggled. His signing before roster expansion cost Salas 2 weeks in Aug., limited by Motte, Suppan & Reyes going on the DL. His 7.23 ERA compares unfavorably to Salas, but better than Otto’s or Walters’ (at the time).
Miles/Winn helped, considering who they replaced. The team started the year with an unbalanced bench consisting of one IF (Lopez) and three OF (Craig, Mather & Nick). Winn/Miles filled roles first occupied by Craig/Mather, rebalancing the bench. Jay had replaced Craig at the end of April. Miles replaced Mather. Winn’s arrival cost Jay about a month in MLB, but with Ludwick in the May/June mix, he’d only started 4 games and was in a bench role. Returning to Memphis, Jay started and played regularly. He was recalled the day Ludwick went on the DL, staying with StL the rest of the year. When Miles arrived, Mather had a BA/OPS of .191/.485. On the day Winn arrived, Craig had a BA/OPS of .053/.195 & Jay’s was .302/.744. Miles hit .281 with a .675 OPS and Winn hit .250 with a .693 OPS. Clearly, Winn & Miles outperformed Craig & Mather. Craig ended with an OPS slightly higher than Winn’s, but only passed him 5 days before the end of the season and he didn’t hit .250 all year. On defense, it’s fair to say Winn was a disappointment, as was his hitting vs. LHP. Miles did OK on defense given his known range limitations.
And finally, as discussed earlier, the Feliz trade was about defense, a move to replace the failing Lopez. As bad as he was, hitting .208 with a .482 OPS, Feliz played better than Lopez/Greene on both sides of the ball during the period he was with the Cards. That likely says more bad about Lopez & Greene than anything good about Feliz. Sadly, Pedro’s 1 HR and 9 RBI with the Cards was also just 1 homer less than Nick’s production for the entire year. Feliz arrived 12 days before roster expansion, so his presence really didn’t block any position player. Greene, coming off the DL, was sent to Memphis 2 days before Pedro joined and wasn’t eligible to return for 10 days. With Freese out, Lopez was playing 3B, Miles was a reserve IF, and the other IF reserve slot was then filled with an extra pitcher.
By this analysis, 4 of the 5 ‘retreads’ improved the team, MacDougal being the sole exception.
HB let me give you a lawyer’s tip. Courts have page limitations on briefs. There are several reasons for this but the main one is this—-if you can’t make your point in the first two or three pages, you’ve lost because the judges will stop reading. It is called a brief for a reason.
When you go on these long rants, I am willing to bet most of the people on this blog do not read them. If they do, I applaud them.
As I said once before, you talk more and say less than anyone I have ever met.
And I mean that with love in my heart. 
thank you for saying that CRD……….. this is a well “rehearsed group”……….they are prepared for relevant briefs……… Tex, you present so many reasonable opinions, and you speak well about them. I probably disagree with 70% of what your saying……….but I’ve almost given up looking for those points. It makes for nice camouflage though, I must admit. Take a hint from Jumbo……less is more……..and nothing at all can be very relevant………….it is the silence between the notes that carries the most relevance……………the most emotional power.
Oh and one other thing. Please alleviate my confusion by explaining (in one paragraph please) how the team was hurt by the lack of farm help (bad) which required going outside the organization for help (bad) while at the same time these same players improved the team. So is your conclusion that bad+bad =good?
Four of the five ‘retreads’ outperformed the farmhands they replaced. Suppan was better than Walters/Ottavino. Winn/Miles were better than Craig/Mather. Feliz was not good, but better than Greene/Lopez who were even worse. Only MacDougal was worse than what we already had. Of 14 farmhands from Memphis, two were successful. You may not like facts and stats because they undermine your opinion. I’ve backed my opinion with facts, and I don’t see any response to those facts… just petty insults…
Tex, not that Crdswmn needs defending but where are these insults you are talking about?
Thats better Tex…………..I don’t disagree……… all stunk…………. Tony doesn’t want Greene for money, but he might not have a choice…………..again…………. Pitchers need runs to pitch behind. You can’t expect the kids to sweat out 1 run games……….they all sense the impotence.. Craig likely starts in Memphis unless he finds God……..or a swing.
Skip entered 2010 as a MM / power/ Utley hopeful………….. he ended the year after getting his ass handed to him, playing slapper and on base guy…………..if he tunnels here, his career is likely over……….or at least meriting no more than a minor league contract somewhere.
I didn’t insult you HB, I asked you for an explanation of your position vis a vis your previous posts about bad farm guys and having to make up for it by going outside the organization. It appeared to me that you were saying both of those things were bad. Then you post that the players gotten outside the organization improved the team. I did not understand what appeared to me to be a contradiction and asked you for an explanation. You did not give it, unfortunately, you just repeated the numbers again.
I said nothing insulting just my usual sarcasm which you always take with a smile. Are you ok?
HB appears to have let the cardinalsnation blog get to him. I sense extreme anger and frustration much like WC has shown at times when CC has put the full court press on. Hang in there HB and remember, we don’t know each other so there is no need to let the other guy get you all riled up.
Sorry, crdswmn. That line was intended for a wider audience who responded, but did not address the analysis. I didn’t find anything you wrote to be more sarcastic or snarkier than normal.
You’re still cool in my book.
I printed off those last two posts myself and put one in my female min pin cage and the other in the cage with her 4 puppies. Keep em coming HB.
Tex………RC is just kidding you. I find you’re thinking very clear. You are formidable observer, and a very fine technical writer…………………… within the evaluative parameters of your vantage point. Everyone has a valid opinion. If they had a GPS tracker on them, we might be able to calculate their exact qualitative viewing position…………………… spend some time condensing you believes into “predictions) ………..if they’re good, someone likely starts asking you questions. At this point, you’re not even getting by the Brazilian………. let alone surviving the Jumbo tron………….
Try this…………the Rickett’s bought the Cubs…………. they cashed in a bunch of “prospects” for a credible arm ………..a good move for them……….a good move for the Rays who are practiced “realists” within salary constraints……………. how did they know they might be able to hook up on that deal? Who had the fishing pole?
Moving on from Lou will probably have more effect than the new arm. I expect the NL central to be a dogfight.
Zombrano was awesome down the stretch. If he repeats that, the Cubs could win it all. If not, I dont give them much of a chance.
You’d think huh BB…………….. Houston without the weight made things happen……….Brewers won’t be pouting with new arms……… Cincinnati will have bloated testicles………………… We have the mystique…………..but all energy is absorbed by the black hole at our center……………….this is my prediction…………..if we start scoring ego runs by the new “clique” (Holiday/Berkman/Rasmus/Freese)……and pitchers have a chance at winning 8 to 5 or maybe cruising in a blowout……. we will spank………..everyone contributes…………………….if AP is here…….and struggles at the 3spot, and is buried by the party around him………..I’m in heaven………….if Tony leaves him to struggle……in his spot because he is AP……….the whole thing sinks……….. if Albert is pumping, and Molina is batting 8th…………it will only be because everyone is contributing………..that being the least likely scenario unfortunately………………… AP stunk this year……..I thought Holiday even with fair numbers wasn’t doing much…………….we must have Berkman to form this new center…………
From my vantage point…………the AP/Molina gang is becoming very isolated. Not much Latin going on………….. they’re all gone…………. they have bench problems……….probably a factor in AP’s contract decision……….. predictable? you decide………if he plays “Red As-ed” ……..he will tire quickly in that contest………….. there are few favorable scenarios………..
Pujols batting forth changes everything………effecting the entire strategy and chemistry….he must suggest it though……….becoming a team man……….unlikely………..Envision one of three getting on. You can’t survive pitching to 6 batters every inning…….. you can’t put two guys on in front of Berkman………..he will destroy you……. Holiday/ Pujols/ Berkman creates a real contest for opposing pitchers………..especially effecting pitch counts………Pujols is a chaser, he presses weak counts………..double plays and stupid contact ground balls haunted him all year in 2010…………….
You will see Berkman start 10/12 games at first this year…..you will see him on a double switch going to first when Pujols isn’t close in the order………in 8th and 9th……….. I see Berkman starting 110 games if he’s healthy………and he likely won’t be if he starts more.
Matt is the one who stunk, Westy. At least the first half, failing in a cleanup hitter’s sole task, hitting with runners in scoring position. That’s not likely to happen this year. Once the season is well under way, Mtt should build up a lead in RBIs over Albert, having more runners on ahead of him than Albert does in the three spot. That is when Albert will move into the fourth spot.
I told somebody that very thing the other day Bling. I expect Matt to have a bigger year this year than Albert and I wonder when Tony will make that switch. If Matt starts putting up bigger numbers than Albert things will definitely change, you can bet on that.
I suppose the possibility of putting Matt ahead of Albert in the order at some point meant the need for acquiring a veteran batsman to protect him. E-gad RC, that would mean it makes sense after all. Tell me it aint so.
We have to let Theriot steal bases…………we need to hit and run from two……….your right Matt stunk, in my opinion from a technical stand point…………. he needs a better approach ……… it obviously isn’t coming from MM………… he isn’t good enough to back AP…………unless Berkman changes all that…………… He was to tall…………..hands too high…….figuring to be exploiting the low pitch……..he was alway vulnerable on the hands…………….. he attempt at an adjustment lasted a week……….
AP’s numbers against front line pitching was dismal……..low 200′s. They both hit chumps and rookies……………
I had not seen those numbers of Pujols and Holliday against front-line pitchers. Do you recall where you saw that?
With better starting pitching in the NL Central this year, a continuation of that trend would not be a happy matter…
OF course it would need some context as I’m sure most players do even worse against front line pitchers.
I always listen to away broadcasts………. it came up several times, probably when AP was flirting with 299……….. I believe they were referring to the top third echelon of pitchers if I recollect…..
to all………the better starting pitching means small ball opportunities………….have to be exploited. If we can’t string singles……….we have no future. Having the entire damn team speculating on power numbers will look even worse than last year.
I agree Westy. Albert hitting third stifles the top of the order.
chumps and cookies are the norm for the Central Division. This year will test everyone with all of the quality pitching that has been absorbed into the Central Division. Might make things tougher on Albert. As well as the rest of the boys in St. Louis.
On the other hand, great hitters will do better against great pitchers than everyone else. Albert and Matt are right up at the top in the Central. And if Berkman has anything left, he won’t be getting smoked either.
One problem….the Cards don’t have a bunch of great hitters.
It just changes the priorities……..the need for “clutch” and situational hitting………….. The first base jogging, play every game martyr’s have to sober up……………if Tony doesn’t stand up to it…….that will end his career…………………
Amen to that………….
HN knows I’m playing.
HB I mean.
Playing? I thought you were flipping out on the net again!
Get some new material HB, Where is tpsreports with some some extra hot venom when we need some? Lets get him on here to verbally abuse me some more. I feel like you are beating me up with a pillow HB.
TPS is waiting for Auburn to lose tomorrow. Or so he said. If Auburn wins, I bet he won’t show his cyber face.
I like that guy. Somebody find out who he is where I can send him a friend request on facebook.
RC — Tiring of ‘flipping out’ already? I only posted that Gordon stuff so I’d have some new material to stuff the pillow with!
It’s your paper… and dogs can’t read, even in Alabama!
He’s back Crdswmn. Everything is ok again with planer earth.
planet. dad gum, where is spell check when you need it?
Maybe it was his evil twin.
Like the two William Shatners in that Priceline commercial. 
Just to show how biased Tex is, all you have to do is look at his treatment of the Winn/Craig comparison. Over the whole season or just their time with the Cards (choose your poison) Winn had a negative WAR and Craig had a higher OPS. If you choose just to look at the time Winn came to the Cardinals (those are the partial stats that Tex wants you to look at when it fits his argument) the discrepancy becomes much greater and Craig OPS’d over .800 during that time. Yes, the same Craig that Tex insists can’t fill the RF spot OPS’d over the last 4 months greater than Berkman who we went out and paid $8 million for. That is before we talk about the fact that Berkman hasn’t played the OF for 2.5 years.
I could go on to show how Descalso performed better than Perez (and Perez was good enough last year and Descalso isn’t this year????) Or I could show how Greene outperformed Miles (again. Miles was good enough last year but Greene was better but not good enough this year???????????)
Suppan was not a bad pick up but was he better than Walters? Walters had a lower FIP and much lower FIP (and near equal ERA) after Suppan joined the team. (Again, Suppan is good enough last year but Walters isn’t this year????????????)
So add all that to Jay and Salas (who Tex admits performed well) as well as Garcia and Freese (who Tex wants to include in discussions of what the farm contributed for some silly reason) and I think it is clear to all that his argument is weaker than the bond between helium atoms.
Rather than exposing bias on my part, CC, you’ve demonstrated ability to deny facts and to introduce irrelevancies. Obviously, denial is not just a river in Egypt.
Considering whether veterans the Cards picked up during the year did better than the farmhands they replaced, what possible relevance do Winn’s stats with the Yanks have? Or Suppan’s with the Crew? Or Pedro’s with the Astros? Answer? None. Same with Berkman. I call BS on that whole paragraph.
I mentioned that Craig’s OPS was higher at the end than Winn’s (.711/.693) and also that he passed Winn for the first time 5 days before the end of the season. If Craig had hit for the year as he did the last 8 games he’d have been starting in RF over Jay. But he didnt. Before then he never had a BA over .220 and it was 9 games before the end of the year when he first had an OPS over .600. When Craig was replaced, he was hitting .053 with a .195 OPS. That was in early June. Nor did Craig have an OPS near .800 all year, unless you’re using he stats from Memphis. Below is a link to his game logs in MLB for 2010. His OPS is listed on a day-to-day basis.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=craigal01&t=b&year=2010
Descalso peformed better than PEREZ? Who is that? Greene didn’t outperform Miles on offense, unless you think a .221/.625 BA/OPS line is better than .281/675. Besides, that is also irrelevant. Miles replaced Mather, whom he also outperformed. Miles never blocke Greene. The two IF reserves were Lopez & Miles until Freese went on the DL. Then Lopez played 3B and Greene was called up. Look at transaction… I did. Tyler first came up at the end of April when Lopez went on the DL.
Suppans ERA with the Cards was 3.83, Walters’ was 7.00+ until the last start of the season, a game vs. the Pirates in which he lowered it to 6.00. Is a 6.00 ERA better than a 3.83? You must be using Suppan’s Crew stats because they hide facts you don’t want to admit, an doing exactly what you falsely accused me of doing. Finally, I did not include Garcia or Freese in my analysis of farmhands. I didn mentione them as guys who started in MLB this year who spent last year in Memphis.
Very disappointing response, CC. I’m not sure why at this point, but I expected more from you.
You see HB, CC is the one flipping out. Not me.
I did like the helium atoms analogy.
Did I mention Pedro’s with Stro’s? Winn with Yanks (other than letting you choose if you wanted to use them)? Suppan with the Brewers? Talk about your BS!!!! If you are not going to use Berkman’s stats from last year I guess we will have to use .000 has his numbers for what we can expect for him to do as a Card?
Yes, Perez should have been Feliz.
Did I say Greene outperformed Miles on offense? No I didnt and you know it. Just because you aren’t capable of using a stat that includes defense as well as offense (WAR) doesn’t mean I’m not.
You can say Miles replaced Mather if you want but other than pitcher
did they ever play the same position?
I suppose FIP is too hard for you to understand also? ERA is debunked by nearly all experts but if that is what you want on hang your hat on so be it.
So to recap – In the infield we have we have Greene and Descalso who had better combined offensive and defensive stats (WAR) than either Feliz and Miles. (Using only their time as Cardinals)
In the outfield we have Craig who had better offensive and defensive stats separately or combined than Winn (using only their time with the Cardinals) Tex wants to exclude Craig’s last 8 games for some reason but as far as I can tell they were part of the 2010 season also. We also have Jay who was brought up during the season (yet was kept down when Winn was acquired) who had a significant WAR and had a higher OPS and batting average to date when Winn was brought on board than Winn achieved anytime in the season (as a Cardinal or otherwise)
Note: not one of Feliz, Miles, or Winn had a positive WAR for the Cards while each of Greene, Descalso, Jay and Craig did.
As a starting pitcher, we have Walters who had a better FIP than Suppan (using just their time as a Cardinal) Again, Tex thinks Walter’s last start wasn’t part of the 2010 season. (And I didnt use Suppan’s Brewers stats above – check your facts before you make accusations). Suppan did have a 0.1 higher WAR than Walters so to be consistent I guess I have to give the slightest of edges to Suppan here.
As a catcher we have Pagnozzi who had a higher WAR than Larue (in much less playing time)
At relief pitcher we have Salas who Tex admits was better than MacDougal.
So at every position (except for Supp’s slight edge as a pitcher) we had a player who was performed better as a Cardinal than the veteran re-tread that Tony used (using only their Cardinal stats).
Let me anticipate Tex’s responses here.
1. Tex doesn’t believe or understand WAR. Sorry Tex, that is your problem, not mine. I have offered to use any other accepted stat that provides a combination of offense and defense but you haven’t provided one. You cant look at just offense and get the whole picture. Want to undestand WAR – plenty on the web to explain how it is derived. But I dont have to know exactly how the stress test on the Arch was derived or performed to feel safe enough to go up in it. I only have to feel confident that the test was designed by smart people, reviewed by smart people, and performed by smart people. WAR has been designed based on research, vetted in the SABR community and elsewhere and I am using the calculations from Fangraphs.
2. Tex doesn’t believe in FIP. Again, the same arguments apply as with WAR. Tex would rather live in a world where a pitcher giving up 5 HR’s after a 2 out error and 10 walks during the game is a better pitcher than the one who walks no one, gives up 2 singles late in the game and then gets charges with 2 ER because the guy who relieves him gives up a 3 run HR.
3. Greene’s stats were worse than Feliz’s during the time Feliz was here. This is true and I might even give this argument some credence if Tex had been intellectually honest and consistent on the same point with Craig/Winn. He still hangs his hat on Craig’s full season (well, full season minus the 8 games he thinks dont count) despite the fact that including those 8 games or not, Craig far outperformed Winn (offensively and defensively) during the time Winn was here. Of course every player has hot and cold streaks and the fact that Greene had his in the last month doesn’t negate what he did the rest of the season. In fact, by Tex’s own arguments in other posts that we had to acquire these retreads due to the players we had not performing the whole argument for acquiring Feliz breaks down since Greene had a .771 OPS at the time. He also had an OPS .100 higher than Miles whenhe was sent down the end of July and Miles kept. Did he struggle when he came back up – yes. But you probably would to if you had done a great job but all the same were regulated to the bench behind someone much worse.
4. I am using the re-treads stats from when they weren’t Cardinals. I only say he might make this argument since he made it before when it wasn’t true so he might make it again.
How’s that for some flippin’ RC
Oh, and I forgot to add, I’m sure you will continue to be disappointed in me Tex as long as you refuse to use the more robust and comprehensive stats such as WAR and FIP. But not nearly as much as I am in you that you refuse to embrace them.
Wow….Nice comeback CC. You’ve swayed my thinking to where I now give you the lead in this battle of the bulge.
I told you not to declare victory too early.
You are giving Tex too many style points for throwing out numbers. I could throw all the WAR and FIP numbers in my post to look impressive but the result would be the same – The system guys produced better.
Of course in this case a tie goes to the runner or in other words, the development of players for future use should easily trump even a slight edge (not that it exists
) by re-treads.
A weak ass covalent bond.
Spoken just like a Chemistry teacher.
#2 on the periodic table… and great party fun! That is, if you like to sound like a Munchkin!
1s2 is the electron configuration……..He: is the dot diagram. This is fun HB.
I practiced amateur chemistry in high school, but never cracked a chem book until college… long after the flashbacks stopped.;)
Oh lord, it is a male periodic table of elements bonding.
I’m telling you at this point I believe HB is dominating CC with the facts. I’m starting to believe HB knows his stuff and CC may be just guessing on some of his info. Clearly HB is leading after 3 rounds, 2 rounds to 1. And its not really that close.
HB is certainly well informed about statistics, I’ll give him that. It seems CC is questioning his use of them rather than his knowledge of them though. I’m not ready to concede victory quite yet.
crdswmn — If this edit box let us put things in columns and retained that formatting when we post, my ‘rants in my pants’ would likely be 67% shorter 56% of the time.
It does, but it has to be in HTML code format to display properly.
In an earlier discussion with CC, I compared Feliz to other options the Cards had at 3B at that time. For offense, I compared Pedro as a Cardinal to others during the same time frame. It’s easy to do since game logs (a single web page) show offensive stats by game. For defense, no similar game logs exist. You have to look at daily box scores, a tedious process. So I used a different method, one that was still fair. In an effort to avoid admitting my point was valid, CC made a big deal out of the different methods, which I openly described. All of which has no relevance to this analysis. CC is dragging in a dead cat from a month ago to throw sand in our eyes. In fact, he did precisely the thing he accused me of doing, playing with numbers to concoct a bogus and irrelevant argument. That’s what I found so disappointing.
Just knocked him out RC
Sorry CC, you’re truly flipping out. In earlier discussions you said my use of BA wasn’t good enough, that I should use OPS. Now that I’ve used both BA & OPS, you say that I should use WAR, and now it looks like ERA isn’t good enough for you either, FIP is the thing. Sad. You hide behind dubious SABR models, still under development and not widely accepted, like a 3 year-old hides behind mama’s skirt. Come out from behind the skirt, CC… admitting you’re wrong doesn’t hurt that bad and you’ll look less foolish.
Reading your reply, I hardly know where to start. You claim you didn’t say things you did and claim I said things I didn’t. You question my intellectual honesty/consistency while being intellectually dishonest and inconsistent. You’ve made factual errors; you’ve introduced Berkman & LaRue who are irrelevant to this discussion; you’ve made questionable comparisons using selective data, adding statistics of several players together; you’ve claimed ERA has been debunked by ‘all experts’ and don’t seem to understand that a 3.83 ERA is better than a 6.00 ERA. Disappointed? You bet, but even more amazed at the depths you are willing to go to in order to deny the obvious. Let’s examine salient points in your latest ‘response’.
‘…Did I mention Pedro’s [stats] with Stro’s? Winn with Yanks (other than letting you choose if you wanted to use them)? Suppan with the Brewers?’
Yes on all counts. Your argument about my use of stats refers back to our earlier Feliz debate, which has no validity here. In this comparison of ‘retreads’ to farmhands, I only used their stats as Cardinals. Your quote above confirms you mentioned Winn’s Yankee stats & either you are devoid of math skills or you used Suppan’s stats with the Crew when you said…
‘…Walters had a lower FIP and much lower FIP (AND A NEARLY EQUAL ERA) [caps mine] after Suppan joined the team
A nearly equal ERA? Suppan’s Cards ERA was 3.83 and Walter’s was 6.00. That’s nearly equal? The only way you could say that and even come close is by using Suppan’s numbers in Milwaukee, where his ERA was 7.84, or to use his combined Cards/Crew ERA which was 5.06. Come to think of it, those aren’t nearly equal either. Maybe you didn’t use his Brewers stats. Maybe you’re just out to lunch.
‘…Did I say Greene outperformed Miles on offense? No I didn’t and you know it…’
Yes, quoting you, ‘…I could show how Greene outperformed Miles…’
‘…You can say Miles replaced Mather if you want but other than pitcher did they ever play the same position?…’
Yes, both played 3B as well. As explained earlier, the bench was unbalanced at the start of the season, with 3 RH outfielders and only one infielder. If you look at transaction history, as I did, Craig was replaced by Jay, Winn replaced Jay, Miles replaced Mather, and Jay was recalled when Ludwick went on the DL. At the time of their replacements, Craig was hitting .053 with a .195 OPS and Mather was hitting .191 with a .485 OPS. Can’t you understand why the team would want to upgrade from those miserable sub-Mendoza offensive performances?
‘…ERA is debunked by nearly all experts…’
This is too foolish to merit a detailed response. ERA is perfectly valid, widely used and widely accepted. Unlike FIP.
‘…Greene and Descalso… had better combined offensive and defensive stats (WAR) than either Feliz and Miles…’
Completely bogus… cherry-picking specially selected players and combining stats for comparison. And you don’t provide numbers to support the claim because that would expose your duplicity. You really are getting desperate. First, Miles didn’t replace Descalso, who came up for 2 weeks with Sept. call-ups. I’m guessing management felt it was better for him to play full-time in Memphis in 2010 rather than fill a bench role in StL. In fact, when Miles was first acquired, he played in Springfield to avoid taking playing time at 2B away from Descalso in Memphis. And, pardon me, didn’t you just say…
‘…Greene’s stats were worse than Feliz’s during the time Feliz was here…’?
Thanks for finally admitting the point I made in our Feliz discussion a month ago. His stats were also better than Lopez’s.
‘… Craig… had better offensive and defensive stats separately or combined than Winn…’
At the end, he had slightly higher OPS (.711/.693) but trailed Winn in BA. When he was replaced at the end of May, Craig had a .195 OPS and was hitting .053. I’ve said all along that Winn was a disappointment on defense.
‘… Tex wants to exclude Craig’s last 8 games for some reason…’
I didn’t exclude any of Craig’s games. I did point out that before his last 8 games, he did not have a batting average above .220 all year; that before his last 9 games, he didn’t have an OPS over .600; and that before his last 5 games, he did not have a higher OPS than Winn.
‘… Jay…was brought up during the season (yet was kept down when Winn was acquired)…’
Thanks for pointing out something I already said in my initial analysis. Jay lost a month of bench time in June when Winn signed. Ludwick was then the starting RF. When he went on the DL in early July, Jay was recalled and started. Getting Jay starts was the reason he was sent to Memphis when Winn arrived.
‘…not one of Feliz, Miles, or Winn had a positive WAR for the Cards while each of Greene, Descalso, Jay and Craig did…’
There’s that skirt again. For the third time, I ask you to post sample calculations for WAR so it’s validity can be assessed. The reason you haven’t is because you can’t. You are hiding behind something even you can’t calculate and don’t fully understand. I call BS…
‘…Tex thinks Walter’s last start wasn’t part of the 2010 season…’
False. I included his stats for the whole season. I did point out that in his last start, he lowered his ERA from 7.83 to 6.00.
‘…Pagnozzi… had a higher WAR than Larue…’
LaRue was not a ‘retread’. Completely irrelevant to this discussion.
‘…I don’t have to know exactly how the stress test on the Arch was derived or performed to feel safe enough to go up in it. I only have to feel confident that the test was designed by smart people, reviewed by smart people and performed by smart people…’
The Titanic, the Hindenburg and Apollo 1 were also designed by smart people. Thanks for admitting you don’t know how to calculate WAR. Apparently, your reliance on it is based on blind faith in ‘smart people’.
“…Tex doesn’t believe in FIP…’
I’ve never discussed FIP with you before today.
“Tex doesn’t believe in FIP. Again, the same arguments apply as with WAR. Tex would rather live in a world where a pitcher giving up 5 HR’s after a 2 out error and 10 walks during the game is a better pitcher than the one who walks no one, gives up 2 singles late in the game and then gets charges with 2 ER because the guy who relieves him gives up a 3 run HR.”
CC has point here HB. Care to counter?
Oh, and I would be careful using the phrase “blind faith” in any argument against another person.
Pot and Kettle thing, you know. 
Let’s examine FIP. This is the formula. FIP = ((13*HR) + (3BB) – (2*K))/IP. Sometimes a scale factor of 3.2 is added to the result to adjust for league average ERA. Sometimes HBP are added and IBB’s subtracted from the walk total. Guess it depends on what ‘smart guys’ feel like that day.
Without knowing anything else, you can see that FIP heavily penalizes HR. It also penalizes walks (less), but rewards strike outs (less than walks) and innings pitched. Obvious questions are why do you multiply HR by 13, walks by 3 and strike outs by 2? What does this have to do with assessing a pitcher’s value to a team? Are walks, strike outs, HR and innings pitched the only factors needed to assess a pitcher? Are low walk & HR totals the only things that make a pitcher good? Do high strike out totals make a pitcher better?
In baseball, two of the most important stats for any team are runs scored and runs given up. They determine, ultimately, who wins and loses. Give up a lot of runs and your chances of losing increase. Give up few and your chances of winning increase.
Another question… what does FIP say about how many runs a pitcher gives up, his most critical stat and contribution to team wins? I submit to you, nothing at all. Only HR in the FIP formula relates to runs given up and no differentiation is made between a grand slam and a solo shot or something in between.
ERA, conversely, gets right to the heart of runs given up, and does not penalize a pitcher for defensive lapses that lead to unearned runs. Here’s the formula for ERA = (ER*9)/IP. That tells you, on average, how many runs a pitcher gives up per nine innings pitched.
As Cardinals, Suppan gave up an average of 3.83 earned runs every nine innings. Walters, on the other hand, gave up 6 runs on aveage every nine innings he pitched. Which is better and which has the most positive effect on whether the team wins or loses?
As Cardinals, Suppan had a FIP of 1.81 and Walters had a FIP of 1.03, with the lower number being better. FIP shows Walters was better than Suppan, despite the fact that PJ gave up 2.17 more runs per nine innings than Jeff. Suppan gave up less HR/IP than Walters, 0.13 vs. 0.16.
The point CC raises about a starter gaining ER if he gives up hits late in a game, is removed and gets charged with runs when a relief pitcher allows them to score is a valid question. But the unfairness relates more to the reliever, who isn’t penalized. The starter gets charged with the runs, fairly. He put those runners on base. If he’s tiriing or losing effectiveness, chances are just as good he might give up those runs himself. That’s why he’s being taken out of the game to begin with.
But just to remove all doubt, I checked box scores for the 7 games he appeared in. No runs were charged to him that another pitcher allowed. I didn’t check Suppan because his ERA is already substantially better than PJ’s.
Now, I have a question for you. Considering these things, which stat best tells you who does more to help their team win, ERA or FIP?
In this case, if FIP says Walters was better than Suppan, despite giving up 2.17 more runs per nine innings, then I submit to you that FIP is a seriously flawed statistic and unreliable as a tool for comparing pitcher contributions to team wins.
This is totally irrelevant but I got to see both Suppan and Walters pitch live. Walters in 9/29/10 against Pittsburgh and Suppan in 10/3/10 game against Colorado. They both pitched well. At the Pirates game the guy sitting next to me was from out of town (a Reds fan ironically) and he was very impresses with P.J. He said P.J. reminded him of Bob Tewkesbury.
If you are going to discuss FIP you might want to do some research on the premise it is based on.
Do you even know what FIP stands for? Doesn’t appear so from the way you have addressed the subject.
To help you out a little there is a significant amount of data that indicates (on average, over time) that there is a significant amount of luck involved in whether a hit ball falls in play or is caught by a fielder as well as depending how good your fielders are. To remove this luck factor, one has to then concentrate on those factors which a pitcher does control – HR’s, walks, and strikeouts. That’s what FIP does, it isolates those factors controlled by the pitcher. One of the things that validates is that it is a better predictor of future performance than ERA.
I know where you are at. I was once a skeptic myself. I thought surely a pitcher’s ability determines whether a ball is hit hard and falls into play or not. Turns out not near as much as you’d think. Ground ball pitchers do have some advantage in this area. They actually give up more hits but less runs as their balls dont go for extra bases as often. This however is usually reflected in their HR totals so FIP actually does take this into account.
Plenty of stuff to read out there on the web as to how the numbers are derived, why certain numbers are used, validity, etc. Same for WAR. WAR was more intuitive to me (took a long time to accept the data showing randomness of hits used in FIP) but it is arguably more subjective since the defensive component is hard to quantify objectively. But it’s the best we’ve got if you want to include and weight the impact defense has on the game. There are other measures out there that look at similar value issues such as Win Shares and VORP but WAR is actually an evolution of those and considered superior.
Tex, I apologize for sounding condescending. I just meant to point out that all the answers to your questions are easily found on the web. Same with WAR.
CC — I read up on FIP when I found the formula, and had done some earlier reading on it as well. I understand the theory behind it, but question it’s validity. I’m glad that I could find a formula and do the calculation, which helps me to evaluate it in the way that works best for me. I wish I could find the same for WAR, which is why I keep asking for a sample caluclation. I can’t find one.
The questions I asked were rhetorical, more intended for others than myself. They seemed the logical points of inquiry.
This is the first time I’ve delved deeply in FIP, and admit I’m not impressed by its application to the Suppan/Walters discussion. Suppan is a veteran who knows how to pitch, he doesn’t have strikeout stuff, but he’s still successful. The problem with all theories are that there are always exceptions… I think he’s one. There are likely many others.
CC — I accept your apology and apologize if I’ve gone over the line a time or two. As I said earlier, I like and respect you, even though we disagree. I wish we could keep our discussions on a less hostile footing, as I enjoy them. I’d enjoy them even more if you’d agree with me every now and then.
Especially when I’m right, which is dang near always. 
‘…if Tex had been intellectually honest and consistent… He still hangs his hat on Craig’s full season (well, full season minus the 8 games he thinks don’t count)…’
CC, you’re a real specimen… attacking my intellectual honesty and consistency while telling a falsehood. I didn’t exclude 8 of Craig’s games. That’s false.
‘…Craig far outperformed Winn (offensively and defensively) during the time Winn was here…’
This is also false. If you say that Craig played better than Winn in the last 8 games of the season, that is absolutely true. But Winn was here from June 5th and Craig did not play better than Winn from June 5th up to the last 8 games of the season. Craig never surpassed Winn in BA, only surpassed Winn on OPS five games before the end of the year; and never hit above .220 until 8 games before season’s end. The fact you don’t seem to understand or can’t acknowledge is that when Winn was acquired, Craig was hitting .053 with a .195 OPS.
‘…every player has hot and cold streaks… Greene had his in the last month…’
Greene didn’t have a hot streak in September/October. You meant Craig. If Craig had played well earlier, Winn wouldn’t have been signed. Fact is, he didn’t play well early and was replaced by someone who did much better except for the last week of the year.
‘…the whole argument for acquiring Feliz breaks down since Greene had a .771 OPS at the time. He also had an OPS .100 higher than Miles when he was sent down the end of July and Miles kept…’
It’s true that Greene had a .771 OPS on 7/31. He went on the DL with a hand injury the next day, so your claim that he was sent down is false and your comparison with Miles irrelevant. When Greene came off the DL on 8/17, both he and Hill went to Memphis. Greene wasn’t recalled until 9/7, even though he could have come up when rosters expanded. When called up, he played poorly. Earlier, you admitted that Feliz played better than Greene during the time both were Cardinals. And didn’t you deny saying that Greene was better than Miles on offense? Did someone mention consistency? At most, Feliz blocked Greene or any IF for 12 days, the time between his 8/19 signing and roster expansion.
Let’s review. There were 5 ‘retreads’ acquired during the season (Suppan, MacDougal, Miles, Winn and Feliz). We agree MacDougal wasn’t better than Salas and that Suppan was better than Otto & PJ, though you’re having difficulty understanding that a 3.83 ERA is far superior to a 6.00 ERA. You’ve admitted that Feliz played better than other 3B alternatives (Greene, Lopez) during the time all were Cardinals. In earlier discussion, I admitted that Descalso played better than Feliz in his 2 weeks in StL, but nobody expected Descalso to play 3B for the Cards in 2010. That leaves Winn & Miles.
I’ve identified a number of Cards farmhands who failed in 2010, including Greene, Craig & Mather. The team only carried one reserve IF until Miles arrived in June. That means Greene wasn’t blocked by any ‘retread’ in April-May, and still wasn’t on the team, save for a 2-week stint when Lopez was on the DL. In that period, Greene hit .231 with a .670 OPS and was sent back to Memphis, where he stayed until July 2nd. You could argue that Miles blocked Greene in June, but Miles played far better that month than Greene had earlier. He appeared in 16 games, one start, was hitting .333 on June 5th and .286 on June 30th. He hit a low of .176 in between, but that fluctuation was a function of limited at-bats as a bench player. I’ll admit that Miles is no slugger and that Greene has more pop, problem is, he doesn’t hit for average and Miles does.
That leaves Craig & Mather. You haven’t attempted any defense of Mather, so I’ll assume that you don’t have one. At the time Winn/Miles were signed, Craig was hitting .053 with a .195 OPS and Mather was hitting .191 with a .485 OPS. Both Winn and Miles played better for the year with one exception… Craig’s torrid last 8 games of the season. Given the early performances of Craig/Mather, the decision to replace them was solid and in fact, better play by Miles and Winn helped the team.
And finally… what happened to your bogus claim that Craig had an OPS over .800? You didn’t mention it.
I’m putting you on the bench, CC, in Batavia… P.S. Luhnow and Bill James sit down when they go #1…
HB counter punching. CC staggering back into the ropes.
Okay Howard Cosell……………………… when I was in high school…….before there were laws………we used to play boxing basketball on a rainy day…………….. you had to wear a heavy boxing glove on your weak hand………..no rules………..as long as you were trying to play and score………… you would have delighted in that RC………
That was a swing and a miss!
Good luck Tigers
Lets see how smart Auburn has gotten is 6 weeks…………. Lets see how devious Oregon has gotten. Fast grass track………incredible fast tempo……….they will test the Auburn secondary IQ right out of the shoot……………… I hope its a good game………
Let’s go back to the basics.
I am going to try to avoid any accusation of Tex’s misquoting me (I’ll address that in a separate post later).
Tex’s original claim (paraphrased): The Cards brought in retreads because the farm system was not capable of providing adequate bench players to help the major league club. (Tex, if I have misstated this please rephrase it in the terms you want – my argument will hold up no matter what!)
My claim: The Cards had players from Memphis that could provide equal or better production than the the re-treads brought in.
The ground rules (has decided by Tex): We can only compare players during the time period the re-treads were with STL.
Retread 1 – Winn. When Winn came here he took playing time away from Jay and Craig who were both at Memphis at the time.
Winn’s OPS with STL .693 Winn’s WAR 0.1
Craigs’ OPS from the time Winn arrived in STL going forward ,814 WAR >0.1 (it was 0.1 for the season but that includes his terrible start so I am not going to calculate it but am willing to bet it is greater than 0.1. Tex is free to prove me wrong
Jay’s OPS with STL after Winn arrived >.744 (not going to calculate since it is so far superior there is no question who was better) WAR ~ 1.0
Summary:
Craig beats Winn in OPS and WAR over the time period Winn was with STL
Jay Beats Winn in OPS and WAR over the time period Winn was with STL
Advantage Craig
Advantage Jay
retread #2 Miles
Miles OPS while in STL .627 WAR 0
Greene’s OPS while Miles was in STL .629 WAR unknown. I am not going to calculate it. Most likely it is close to 0 his WAR for the year was 0.1
Summary Greene beats Miles in OPS and is a push in WAR
Advantage Greene
retread #3 Feliz
Feliz OPS in STL .482 WAR -2.1
Descalso OPS in STL after Feliz arrived .648 WAR 0.3 (yes it is a small sample size but its all we’ve got- plus more AB’s would only increase the WAR differential!
Summary: Descalso’s beats Miles in OPS and WAR
Advantage Descalso
Retread #4 MacDougal
Tex has admitted Salas pitched better so no need to waste time here
Summary: Salas Beats MacDougal
Advantage Salas
Retread #5 Jeff Suppan
Suppan’s ERA w/ STL 3.84 FIP 4.91 WAR 0.1
Walter’s ERA after Suppan arrived 3.46 FIP < 2.99 (I'm not going to calculate it since it is such a run away) WAR ~0.1(it was 0 for the season but my guess is since the 2nd half was stronger it is at least 0.1 (probably more).
Summary:
While I originally called this a slight advantage for Suppan I misread Walter's stats.
Walters wins in ERA, Walters wins in FIP, it is a push for WAR
Advantage Walters
Again this is small sample size but that's what happens when you dont give guys a chance.
I am not going to address Ottavino or Mather since to disprove Tex's original premise and prove mine there is no need to show that there were multiple players available at each position (though I did that with Winn).
The only argument that Tex can make is that he can argue about whom should be compared to whom. I have only compared players that played similar positions. Even if you mix them to the most advantageous comparison possible for Tex, he would only win comparing the time period Feliz was in STL with Greene going forward from that date (and I'm not sure he wins WAR there – which would make it a push (one wins OPS the other wins WAR).
So we have 5 Advantages for the Memphis guys 0 for the retread (or 4 to 1 in Tex's most favorable match up) That holds up using OPS, WAR, ERA, FIP – you name it.
I fully expect Tex now to fall back on the stats for the Memphis guys before the retreads arrived but that is not what he said he wanted to compare. Of course if we use those stats to be fair we would have to use the stats from earlier in the year of the retreads and that of course is a loser for Tex.
Tex, if you choose to rebutt I would ask that you put the statistics in one thread and the miscellaneous garbage that doesn't relate to the facts in another so we can keep the debate clear and simple.
‘…My claim: The Cards had players from Memphis that could provide equal or better production than the the re-treads brought in.
This is true for some of the bench guys and farmhands, but not for all. I’ve said repeatedly that Jay & Salas helped the team. Not so for Mather, Craig, Greene, MacLane, Walters, and Ottavino, who were replaced by veterans. I won’t address the specifics of your argument as we both know it’s deeply flawed. I will summarize the reasonable, fair and honest points I’ve been making here all along.
1. Suppan and Hawksworth replaced Walters & Ottavino. Suppan pitched well, compiling a 3.83 ERA as a Cardinal. Walters put up a 6.00 ERA and Ottavino an 8.46. This isn’t even close.
2. We agree that MacDougal wasn’t an improvement over Salas. He did put up a lower ERA (7.23) than MacLane (9.00) or Ottavino (8.46). I understand, looking at his stuff, why he got a shot. I also understand , looking at his control, why he won’t be back.
3. The Feliz move was all about replacing Lopez’s defense at 3B. In this, he did well. He didn’t hit better than Lopez/Greene for the year, but he did for the time all were Cards and he solidified 3B defensively for a time. If you limit expectations to the specific goal of fixing defense at 3B, he was a success and briefly helped the team.
4. Miles replaced Mather. I’ve explained multiple times about the unbalanced bench. Mather was sent down on 5/31 and Miles joined the team on 6/1… a one-for-one roster swap. That got rid of the 3 RH OF on the bench imbalance. Miles did better than Mather with a BA/OPS line of .281/.675 vs. Mather’s .217/.525. Again, not even close.
5. Jay replaced Craig on the roster in late April. Winn replaced Jay 6/5, again, a one-for-one roster swap. It’s legitimate to question this move, given Jay’s success. Bottom line, with Luds starting in RF May/June, Jay had 4 starts and pinch hit. Evidently management felt it was better for Jay to play every day in 3A rather than sporadically in StL. When Ludwick got hurt, he came back and stayed all year.
So the true comparison is Winn vs. Craig. At the end of the year, Craig had a slightly higher OPS (.711 vs. .693) and a slightly lower BA (.246 vs. .250). But you have to put things in context. Craig failed totally as a bench player. He did well at the end of the year as a starter when Jay was benched to protect his .300 BA. Craig wouldn’t have started while Ludwick was here, and he wasn’t a starter over Jay until the very end. Craig had a BA over .220 for the first time all year on Sept. 26th. Prior to his season’s-end hot streak, Winn was the better hitter and was a better bench player, even if his defense was disappointing.
So… looking at things fairly and reasonably, Suppan, Miles, Winn and Feliz (in a limited way) helped the team and did better than the farmhands they replaced. MacDougal didn’t. Team management isn’t stupid whether folks like them or not. There was legitimate reason and thinking behind each move. Some worked better than others. All can be questioned, which is why we’re here. Overall, I think 4/5 moves helped the team.
‘…The ground rules (has [sic] decided by Tex): We can only compare players during the time period the re-treads were with STL.’
Please show me where I established those ground rules for this discussion. I’ve been comparing performance of farmhands and veteran replacements over their entire time with the Cards in 2010. I made one exception, referring to our previous debate on Feliz, not to hide anything, to make a false argument, or to establish some ground rule, but to avoid going over ground we’ve already covered at length.
If you recall that earlier discussion, I freely admitted Lopez/Greene (looking at stats for the whole year) did better on offense than Feliz. But I also made a second, narrower, argument showing Feliz outperformed them during the time all were Cardinals. If you want to use that method, be my guest. But please, use the whole thing. Admit the larger point exists and is valid, then if you want to make a narrower case, go right ahead. That displays fairness and intellectual integrity. It’s obvious you have latched onto some ‘imagined ground rules’ upon which to base an incomplete and fallacious argument.
‘…I fully expect Tex now to fall back on the stats for the Memphis guys before the retreads arrived but that is not what he said he wanted to compare. Of course if we use those stats to be fair we would have to use the stats from earlier in the year of the retreads and that of course is a loser for Tex…’
Of course you do, that’s just the way you set it up. You fully knew you were making a bogus argument based on the falsehood that I somehow said those were the ground rules. You admit that not using earlier Cards stats for farmhands is unfair. That makes the entire statistical part of your post complete BS. Thanks for admitting it.
The loser here, CC, has been the truth and honest discussion. The stats of Winn, Suppan and Feliz with their previous teams add nothing to a discussion comparing the performance of vets vs. farmhands with the Cards. For a fair discussion, all the stats for Cards farmhands should be used. Their poor results before the vets were added is PRECISELY the reason they were replaced. Omitting them is fantasy land.
Didn’t see this when I posted below but it’s not a problem as it is still a winning argument for me! (Again!)
HBT’s new ground rule:
“I’ve been comparing performance of farmhands and veteran replacements over their entire time with the Cards in 2010.”
Sorry, same rules for everyone, no exceptions for Feliz!
I’ll go back and show where this is a change later….or not,,, probably not worth the time since either argument is a winner for me.
retread #1 Miles.
Greene was in Memphis when Miles came on board. He had better stats at that time than Miles put up for the year as a Card. He put up better stats going forward than Miles. He put up better stats for the season. A triple winner!
Jay was sent down 5 days after Miles arrived in favor of keeping Miles (and only played 2 days while Miles was here). Better stats at the time than Miles put up as a Cardinal. Better stats for the year than Miles. Better stats going forward than Miles. Another triple winner!!!
Craig was in Memphis at the time. Not better stats than Miles put up at the time. But better stats going forward and better stats for the season (the real condition presented by Tex). A double winner!!!!!!
Descalso was in Memphis at the time Miles was called up with better AAA stats than Mile had at AA. He put up better stats going forward than Miles. He put up better stats for the season than Miles Let’s call that one a double and half winner!!!!!!!
Note: It is fair to use the OF’s in this scenario as TEx claims Miles was replacing the OF Mather.
retread #2 Winn
Craig was in Memphis when Winn was added. Worse stats at the time than Winn put up as a Cardinal. Better stats going forward than Winn. Better stats for the entire season (TEx’s condition) Another double winner!!!!!!
Jay was in Memphis when Winn was added. Better stats at the time than Winn. Better stats going forward than Winn. Better stats for the season than Winn. A triple winner!!!!!!!
retread #3 Feliz.
Greene was on the DL when Feliz was added but was kept down in Memphis in favor of Feliz. Better stats at the time than Feliz. Worse stats going forward. Better stats on the year than Feliz (Tex’s true test) Another DOUBLE WINNER!! And most importantly a Winner of the true condition.
Descalso was in Memphis at the time Feliz was acquired. Not stats for comparison prior to acquisition. Better stats going forward. Better stats on the year. Another DOUBLE WINNER!!!
retread #4 MacDougal
Tex admits Salas was better than MacDougal. ANOTHER WINNER!!!!
Retread #5 Suppan.
Walters had worse stats at the time of acquisition. Better stats going forward. And the stats for the year are split — Suppan had the better ERA but Walters had the better FIP. I’d personally have the stats between the two from the time Supp was acquired break the tie (Walters wins) but since the I’m a nice guy and that would be slightly subjective I’ll give Tex a break and call it a push.
There you have it folks. Using Tex’s latest test the farmhands win 4-0-1 No matter how you mix and match the players!
“For a fair discussion, all the stats for Cards farmhands should be used.” Are you now going to say I haven’t done this and continue to say I am not being honest? Only one person here has compared all scenarios – prior to player acquisition, after player acquisition, and “all stats for Cardinal farm hands should be used” (your condition). It matters not. The farm hands WIN! Now its your turn to be honest.
Tex, if my premise is wrong, please re-state it correctly so I can make an argument from a clear point of debarkation. I asked you to do that in my post yet you hedge and say it the premise for some players and not for others (I assume that means for those players where the argument works for youand not for those it doesn’t) But more importantly, you fail to clearly state what your premise is. Given that, I have to continue to use what I think yours is as i previously stated it.
You said specifically you only wanted to compare the time period in which these retreads were Cardinals. I did that. Even broke out my calculator which I hate. Yet for the Farmhands you now want to use their entire season. (Told everyone in my post that this would be his fall back position!!!!) Do we want to use the entire season for Suppan and Feliz also? Do we want to use the minor league stats of Miles and Descalso? Either way these arguments are losers for you if you compare apples to apples.
We argue who was substituting who but that doesn’t change the fact that the talent was there. Miles may have replaced Mather one for one but why was he kept and Jay optioned 5 days later? (since you think Miles is taking the place of an outfielder on the roster). Descalso showed he could perform better than Miles (limited sample but all we got) but he wasn’t called. Doesn’t matter who exactly replaced who as long as the talent was there. It wasn’t used properly.
Just as it doesn’t matter if 5 farm hands failed. As long as a sufficient number were available who succeeded to fill out the roster.
You are now making claims not backed up by facts. You claim that Winn was a better player than Winn. statistically he ws not better in the time period Winn was here and statistically he ws not better over the whole season. To claim otherwise is false. You are now hedging and introducing a new variable – how each did as a bench player. If you dont like the facts I guess you have to create new variables that might provide winning scenarios, heh?
Feliz was not better than Descalso over the time he was here or for the whole season. He was not better than Greene for the whole season. Claiming otherwise ignores the statistics.
Miles was not better than Greene over the time he was here or for the whole season. Miles was not better than Descalso for the time he was here or for the whole season. Those are facts. You can claim a false victory all you want but you cant escape the facts.
You can argue successfully that Winn was brought in because Craig had struggled. But that doesn’t make him a better player and the rest of the season showed that as Craig ended up with the better numbers. But using the SABRE stuff you hate it was obvious that Craig’s numbers were an aberration due to be unlucky. He had hit the ball at a better than average 31% line drive rate that should have brought him a +.300 batting average yet he was at .156. (Maybe this SABRE stuff works!) When called up, his luck evened out and that is why he hended up with better numbers than Winn.
You can also argue successfully that we had struggled to find a #5 starting pitcher which is why Suppan was brought in. Of course Suppan had struggled worse with Milwaukee but why get bogged down in details. That doesn’t mean that the talent Walters wasn”t there and in fact he showed that late in the year and ended up with better numbers than Suppan going forward and better numbers than Suppan if you include the entire season for both.
The Miles brought in because Mather argument fails because we sent Jay down 5 days later (if you want to say Miles replaced an OF) and fails becuase Descalso was their with better minor league numbers and also played better when called up. Greene was also in Memphis at that time with better major league numbers to that point than Miles put up. He also ended up with better numbers than Miles going forward from that point. He also ended up with better numbers than Miles for the year. A triple winner!!!!!!!!!!
You want to say Feliz was brought in to replace Lopez. That’s fine but that doesn’t negate that their were better internal options. Greene had better numbers than Feliz had at that point (with Houston) but was kept in Memphis over Feliz even when coming off the DL. Greene ended up with better numbers overall. We all know Descalso was there waiting and did better than Feliz when given the chance. (Feliz did better than Greene over the last month but the availability of Descalso negates that. Also then we have to go back and re-visit the starter vs bench player argument you made with Winn/Craig)
So you can keep claiming these retreads brought in were better. The facts dont support it. I have clearly showed that. Not for the time period they were here – not for the entire season. I asked you to break it out clearly if you disagreed. You refused to do that. You could possibly make the argument that the farmhands were inadequate and the retreads were inadequate but that would be an entirely different argument.
I have clearly rebutted every argument you have made with statistical evidence. And your only response has been to change the terms (time frame) of the argument. I have done so using both OPS and WAR/FIP. The Farmhands win either way.
You are so far in the hole Tex, you are now falling back to the argument that if management brought in these guys it must have been the right thing. That is not an argument based in fact but on some wishful thinking that management made the right choices. Is team management stupid? I didn’t say that. I do believe in this case they were wrong and the evidence supports that.
Again, rebutt if you want but please lay out your premise and conditions of comparison. Hitting this moving target stuff is getting old and tiresome even though I have worked out all the scenarios. No matter what you use, if you apply it equally to all situations, the farmhands will come out ahead overall. (Hint: there is one scenario where that farmhands only win 3 of the 5
)
The paragraph on Winn/Craig should read:
You are now making claims not backed up by facts. You claim that Winn was a better player than Craig. Statistically he was not better in the time period Winn was here and statistically he was not better over the whole season. To claim otherwise is false. You are now hedging and introducing a new variable – how each did as a bench player. If you dont like the facts I guess you have to create new variables that might provide winning scenarios, heh?
CC — It’s taken me a while. But I’ve finally learned. Trying to have a rational discussion with you is pretty much pointless. Can’t say I haven’t tried.
You say I’m making claims not backed by facts? My posts throughout this thread are full of statistics upon which I’ve based conclusions. They’re presently fairly and logically. Compare them to this, your most recent masterpiece. It’is chock full of assertions, one after the other, but not one supporting fact anywhere.
You want to know my premise? Read the thread. I’ve stated it repeatedly…
‘Injuries to two starting pitchers and two key run producers (and the trade of one of them) exposed a lack of depth in the upper reaches of the minors. And when a big part of the Memphis backups failed to contribute positively (Greene, Mather, Stavinoha, Craig, Walters, Ottavino, MacLane) the team went dumpster diving.’
‘… Luhnow’s empire failed to adequately support the team’s needs in-season or this off-season. No starting pitchers to replace Penny/Lohse, no third baseman to replace Freese, no run-producing RF to replace Ludwick, no LH relief pitcher, no SS to replace Ryan, no second baseman to replace Skip (for those who think that is necessary), and no backup catcher… Surely, at least ONE of those needs could have been filled by a farm product. But were they? No, every need filled by going outside our system… Laird, Theriot, Berkman, Westbrook, Feliz, Tallet…’
And the only trade involved someone from the MLB roster (Hawks).
Well, I have discussed “in season” thoroughly and shown that the players were available – Tony/Mo just chose not to use them. I used your latest criteria of full seasons stats as Cardinals for the players involved. Farmhands win – not even close!
If Mo/Tony failed to recognize the talent available in house last season, what indication is there that they would recognize it this off season.
But I dont want to mix the off season with last season. Let’s come to some consensus on the las t season first, then I’ll be glad to discuss the off season and the holes Mo created by trading starters and getting no return
The only way your argument works is if you use specific players of your choosing to show failure of the Cardinal farm system to meet last seasons needs. However, proof that premise was wrong only requires showing that players were available that would have satisfied those needs if used properly. This is where are disagreement lies, you imposing conditions (the use of specific players for comparative purposes) which is not a necessary condition in order to rebutt your premise. I have shown without a doubt that players of better talent (based on last years stats) were available. IF Tony/Mo failed to use them that is not Luhnow’s problem (or mine
) It is a problem with your argument however.
Wait, what about CC’s arguments have been irrational? That they disagreed with yours? There may be a question as to who is right, but I see nothing “irrational” about any of it.
You have both beat this horse to death though so I think it is time to call a truce. Neither of you will concede to the other so others will just have to decide who they think had the better argument. For my part I though it was close, but I am giving the edge to CC. Part of my thinking has to do with the fact that you never explained the contradiction in your first two posts after I asked you to, but I will let that slide.
You certainly are passionate about defending TLR. I truly hope that 2011 turns out to be a banner year for the Cardinals and you can throw it up in my face to your heart’s content.
).
I would rather the Cardinals do well than be right (although being right does have its rewards
Bad news Tex, Went through all the scenarios again and I cant find one were the farmhands dont win 4 out of 5.
Some parting words on this subject…
In my analysis, I compared team depth (bench and farmhands) vs. vets acquired in-season. I did so in a logical way, based on actual events. I didn’t do it based on convenience or for contrivance. I reviewed last year’s transaction history thoroughly, noting which players replaced whom, when, and why… an exercise based on the reality of what actually happened, not what might have happened or should have happened, which can be interesting, but is purely conjecture.
I then compared their key performance measurements, using BA & OPS for position players and ERA for pitchers (their most significant stat, IMO, runs yielded). I did not include defensive stats, though I did make general comments about defensive contributions, like ‘disappointing’, ‘did well’, and ‘incomplete’. I tried to explain clearly what I was doing. I didn’t use theoretical models like WAR that are not widely accepted outside the SABR community, or by me personally. I realize that not looking at defensive metrics can be viewed negatively, but I’d assert that defensive metrics, conventional or SABR, are the least reliable of all stats because they are the most subjective and most affected by external factors, like pitching strategy and scoring determinations.
For stats used, I’ve included only those compiled with the Cards, and ALL those numbers. I’ve excluded stats compiled with other teams or the minor leagues as irrelevant to this analysis… which is after all an examination of whether veteran replacements did better than the farmhands they replaced with the CARDINALS. I did not use stats from our earlier Feliz debate, though I did refer to that discussion in a general way when addressing Feliz.
Comparisons yielded results upon which I’ve based my conclusions. I’ve attempted to give those results additional meaning by adding context; mitigating facts that should be known by anyone who watched the team closely last year; things like Craig’s failure as a bench player, his late surge, Jay’s late fade, reasons for signing Feliz, relevant DL information, the unbalanced bench, and the logic behind allowing Descalso & Jay (briefly) to play every day in 3A as opposed to riding the pine in StL as a bench player.
Solid HB. But this appears to be like Me trying to make BW see things from my point of view when he just can’t seem to see past his outstretched arm. It just isn’t going to happen. You and CC see things from different vantage points and will never agree on this topic. But please continue on in the same manner as you have been because it is quite enjoyable to watch you two slug it out.
RC — That’s it for now… but we’re sure to find something new to replace it!
Congrats on those Auburn boys last night…
RCW-Play your silly games with the others and leave me out of your foolishness.
Nothing silly about what I stated nor was anything foolish about it. Your comments support my position in my comments. Thanks.
Considering the whole exercise is to determine what should have happened, makes little sense to only consider what did happen.
You cant make a logical argument that Miles replacing Mather was a good move (just becuase that is what happened) when Greene and Craig who outperformed Miles were in Memphis and Jay was sent down 5 days later. Descalso was also out performing Miles in the minors and did so again when called up. It makes no sense that Winn was brought on board (based on his performance as a Cardinal let alone his failure as a Yankee) when Jay was in Memphis. So the fact that it happened that way certainly doesnt make it right. If it did, we wouldnt be having this discussion.
Here’s the disconnect. You want to argue about what SHOULD have happened, which is all about OPINION and conjecture based on perfect 20-20 hindsight, which unfortunately is an advantage and a luxury people living in the real world, those who make decisions and run ball clubs, don’t have. And of course, OPINIONS can never be proven or disproven.
I’ve been dealing with what actually DID happen, which can be verified by FACTS. You don’t like that because the FACTS show you don’t have a good grip on the situation, or more likely, you refuse to accept FACTS because they differ from your OPINIONS. All of which drives you crazy enough to start making stuff up in an effort to avoid facing those darned pesky FACTS.
Imagine… a big SABR-toothed tiger getting defanged by a traditional stats guy, skid marks and all!!! Must really chap your hide bad as you look out the window on snowy scenes while riding the bus leading to the bench in Batavia… all the while wondering whether you packed some clean shorts or just 5-6 extra copies of The Bill James Handbook…
You are now getting into the laughable territory.
You are right, I am of the opinion that TLR/Mo did not make good choices. My opinion is based on factual evidence ( and yes, it is 20/20 hindsight but is conssitant with what I said at the time which was not hindsight – it is jus that now that the season is over we have the evidence to show that my opinion was correct.)
You are of the opinion they made the right decision. I’m not sure how as the evidence (in hindsight) doesn’t support that. You haven’t even made the argument that they made the right decision based on what had happened until that point (which would still be a losing case but a stronger one).
Please tell me what I mad up? Some 1+1+1 system that is so stupid no one has ever used it before?
We may have come to different conclusions of the facts but I at least have enough class to not try to change the scoring method at the end to fit those facts (after my argument was shown to be a loser) or to accuse you of making things up (well, other than that hilarious scoring system that triple counts batting average).
I dont need you tell me what did happen. That is rudimentary thinking that can be derived from looking at the box scores. Those a little further on the evolutionary scale like to analyze why things happened and how they could have been manged better.
Btw, after you ate my skid marked shorts I decided to go commando!
CC – TMI, dude…
I don’t know what Brazilians eat, but we don’t eat stuff like that down here in Texas… bugs either. The mental picture of commando + pink tutu is disturbing, to say the least. 
My grading system for selecting final cut(s) was just shorthand. If you just look at how the rankings ended up and evaluate slots 2-6, Craig/Greene are the only guys who rank 5-6 (worst) in 2 of 3 stats. So instead of Nick/Greene rating worst the result is Craig/Greene. The same general theme… farmhands.
What’s laughable is that someone who claims to be so ‘high’ on the evolutionary chain can’t manage to admit the obvious. Suppan did better than PJ/Otto. Miles did better than Mather. Winn did better than Craig. For Winn-Craig, it only became close the last week of the season, when Craig went on a tear. But in April, when he was replaced, he was hitting .056. He never had a BA over .220 until 9/26, and never had a BA over the Mendoza line until 8/4. You can argue coulda, woulda’, shoulda’… to which I reply… didn’t.
Feliz over Lopez was a defensive move to replace Lopez. In that limited sense, it was a good move and successful. And as I demonstrated in our previous discussion of Feliz, he did better than Lopez & Greene during the time all were Cardinals.
We agree that MacDougal wasn’t better than Salas.
Enjoy the bus ride, and the pine!
See, this just shows how you can’t stay on point. changing the comparison criteria whenever backed into a corner.
I admit that Suppan was better than PJ/Otto. Never once said he wasn’t. But he wasn’t clearly better than PJ. By ERA he was, by FIP he wasn’t. I’ve admitted that also.
Winn did not do better than Craig. You have said you wanted to compare entire season stats. Why are you backtracking now. Over the entire season Craig was better than Winn. FACT!!!!
Why are you comparing Feliz to Lopez and Greene over the short time period Feliz was here. YOU SAID YOU WANTED TO COMPARE FULL SEASON STATS AS A CARDINAL! At least have the balls to be consistent! Greene was better than Feliz for the full season (the time frame you wanted to compare).
NOTE FOR THE SPECTATORS: Notice how above he wants to talk about Suppan vs. PJ for the full season not just the time Suppan was here. Note how he wants to talk about Winn for the full season (even though it’s a losing argument) not just the time frame he was here (Craig killed him over that period) yet with Feliz he wants to talk about just the time frame he was here) Also notice the failure to mention Jay (in Memphis when Winn was brought in) or Descalso (way better than Feliz and even got Feliz benched in his favor)
OK HBT, I’m done. I’ll play all day long if you want to be consistent but it’s no use if you aren’t capable of that small thing. I let you set the rules for the most part (other than I refuse to consider BA over OPS) but even after I let you set them you cant stick to them.
FIP isn’t a better measure of pitcher performance than ERA. In fact, FIP is so poorly regarded that it isn’t even listed on stats pages of official MLB team sites. That’s because FIP is not an official stat, it’s experimental. If it’s not good enough for MLB, it’s not good enough for me.
On Winn vs. Craig, let’s settle this once and for all. Winn had a slightly better BA, .250/246; Winn had a slightly better OBP .311/.298; and Craig has a slightly better SLG%, .412/.382. On the basis of adding two of those stats together and calling it OPS (and since it’s a SABR stat, second only to a voice from the burning bush in your eyes) you say Craig is better. I call BS. It’s too close to call. More info is needed.
Craig was a failure in MLB for all but the last 8 games of the season. He started in StL but was sent down in April hitting just .056. He came up for one day in May, lowering his average to .054. He was with the team for 7 days in July, raising his average to .139. He was in StL most of August, raising his average to .188, then returned with Sept. call-ups on the 18th. At that point, he’d had a BA over .200 for a total of 6 days all year, which is putrid and exactly why he’d been replaced. Then he got hot, and in the last 8 games picked up 10 hits, 36% of his total for the year, raising his average to a high of .246.
Compare that to Winn. As a Card, he hit .277 in June, .242 in July, .281 in August and .186 in Sept. & Oct. In other words, Winn helped the team at a level far exceeding Craig for three months before having a poor last month. Meanwhile, Craig did little to help the team before the final 8 games and had a slightly higher SLG% since he hit 1 more HR than Winn in 30 less AB’s. But Winn had more hits (36/24), runs (16/12), doubles (8/7), triples (1/0), walks (13/9) and less strikeouts (26/22).
Given this analysis, if you continue to insist that Craig did better than Winn… then you are not in touch with reality. If you want to say Craig was better than Winn for 8 days, I’ll buy it. If you want to say Craig had a slightly higher SLG% than Winn at the end of the year, I’ll buy that too. But overall, Winn did better than Craig over a much longer period and there’s no rational way of denying it.
Throughout this ordeal, you’ve repeatedly tried to muddy the waters, accusing me of being inconsistent or dishonest. Your NOTE FOR THE SPECTATORS and the paragraph above it about Feliz/Greene/Lopez are the latest examples. We had a previous discussion about Feliz. When touching on him here, I’ve referred to it. I haven’t included any of those stats here. I’ve only mentioned the results in a general way, as something we’re both familiar with from past conversation. That doesn’t make me inconsistent or dishonest. All the stats comparisons I’ve done here only use stats for guys as Cards and for their entire time as Cards in 2010.
Your rant about Suppan is bogus. I didn’t use his stats for the whole year, since that would include his work with the Brewers. Same with Winn and his stats as a Yank. And as the detailed analysis above shows, your claim that Craig ‘killed’ Winn is complete fiction. I’ve discussed Jay and Descalso at length, and one need only read below at post 19 to see the most recent example.
Keep up the silliness, CC, and Batavia may be too good for you. Maybe I’ll send you to the Japanese minor leagues instead, where you can eat fish heads and wear one of those sumo towels, which I’m told are super-absorbent when in comes to skiddys…
I specifically point out specifically where HBT is changing his positions and the best he can come up with is that i “muddy the waters”.
I have to admit. I feel like BW sitting here today after viewing this back and forth battle…….thoroughly confused.
By the way, the idea of you trying to send me to Batavia would be consistent with that of your hero TLR refusing to keep the best players on the big club. Too bad for you he has power and you only have dreams.
First Jumbo tries to trade me to Chicago CC, and now you are being dealt to Batavia. Its a tough crowd around here.
RCW-Confused? Not at all.Just someone who doesn`t buy your wizard of oz routine.
BW, I use this a lot as it pertains to this situation.
Its like me and you sitting in a room alone together, all of a sudden I smell a fart and I look at you and say, dammit BW…..you just farted. To which you reply, it wasn’t me. Now we’re sitting there and I know I didn’t fart but here you are trying to convince me that you didn’t do it. When I know what the truth is.
RCW-I use the Wizard of OZ for you.All bluste and hot air.You are not a Card fan (as you stated in the past).You simply are here to incite and aggravate IMO.
I don`t play your games pal.Another good name for you would be Eddie Haskell.
But you continue to respond BW. If you really want to stop playing my game then you will never respond to any post of mine again. Ok, I’ll take your Eddie Haskell and raise you a Dustin Hoffman in Rain main.
Don’t respond BW……..The force is strong with you……don’t give in to the dark side.
Who is Eddie Haskell by the way? Is that the midget who played in a game one time long ago?
I think was that suave/sophisticated high school junior that was back dooring Mrs. Clever……….. that was just implied though………early 60′s were were rather prudish……………… you weren’t even born yet RC. It was a complement………..I think………..
Westie sees conspiracy’hidden msgs in Leave it to Beaver — classic!
I’ll give the numbers one more spin, organized in a slightly different way and with a little different twist to their interpretation. Each stat is listed separately, with results ranked best to worst for those central to the debate. I’ve split OPS into it’s elements, OBP and SLG. I’ve left out catchers: Pagnozzi (.359/.405/.487), Hill (.333/.333/1.333) & Anderson (.281/.314/.344), since no vet acquired in-season affected them, and I’ve excluded Descalso (.265/.324/.324) & Hamilton (.143/.200/.143). The sample sizes of those two September call-ups are too small to be statistically significant compared to the others. Stats listed in this paragraph are in (BA/OBP/SLG) format.
Starting Pitcher ERA — Suppan (3.83), Walters (6.00), Ottavino (8.46)
Relief Pitcher ERA — Salas (3.52), MacDougal (7.23), MacLane (9.00)
Batting Average — Jay (.300), Miles (.281), Stavinoha (.256), Winn (.250), Craig (.246), Greene (.221), Mather (.217), and Feliz (.208)
On Base Percentage – Jay (.359), Greene (.328), Miles (.311), Winn (.311), Craig (.298), Stavinoha (.286), Mather (.242), Feliz (..232)
Slugging Percentage – Jay (.422), Craig (.412), Winn (.317), Stavinoha (.339), Greene (.327), Miles (.317), Mather (.283) and Feliz (.250).
Looking at rankings for BA/OBP/SLG in this group, a few things jump out. Jay leads in all 3 categories. That’s why he started in RF after Ludwick. Feliz is last (8th) in all three categories, no surprise. The team knew about his offensive limitations when they got him for defense, replacing Lopez as starter at 3B. That the team should have done otherwise is a legitimate question, but I’m analyzing what actually happened. Mather is 7th in all three categories, which explains why he was replaced and is now a Brave.
That leaves 5 guys ranked 2-6 to fill 4 bench spots, the other being a catcher. Who to leave off? Well, Feliz after he was benched, but excluding him, then who? For ease of analysis, I added together the rankings for each player. For example, Jay would be 1 + 1 + 1 = 3, the lowest score possible being the best guy to keep. Here’s how that turns out for those left, ranked from best to worst… Miles 11, Winn 11, Craig 12, Nick 13 and Greene 13. By this analysis, Greene or Nick would lose out. Had Craig not had that hot streak the last 8 games played, it would have been Greene & Craig… and Mather, just as I’ve been saying.
By the way, if you stand in front of a mirror, turn around and look, you’ll see those skid marks from my tires on your back… from being run over. They likely match the ones in your shorts!
Totally invalid analysis since .001 difference in batting average is treated the same in your ridiculous scoring system as .100 difference in slugging if the spreads are that big/small. Of course there is a formula that resolves that — It’s called OPS. IT IS THE STAT YOU WERE USING UNTIL YOU REALIZED YOU WERE LOSING THE ARGUMENT BY USING IT.. Quite the interesting tactic I’d say.
OPS OF’s
Jay .780 Craig .711 Winn .693
OPS IF’s
Greene .655 Descalso .648 Miles .627 Feliz .482
2 OF better than the retread
2 IF better than the retreads.
No use in arguing about FIP since you are obviously too hard headed and closed minded to accept it. ( I at least was open minded enough to consider ERA and FIP even though I consider FIP a better measure).
Looks to me like you are eating those skid marked shorts – taste good?
Typo alert… Winn’s slugging percentage in my post above should be .382, not .317.
RCW- i am waiting to hear about the banjo hitting skinny opposite field hitting mini-Rasmus that is supposed to show up for Spring training.
What do you want to know BW? I’ve already said it all once. Its an easy to understand for the normal person concept.
You have tried to bulk up to add power to your game these last few years. Your manager has tried to get you to buy into a gap tp gap hitting philosophy. You finally decide that you may have been working too much on bulking up and not enough on being a better hitter. So you decide to not spend as much time bulking up and more time on the finer things about hitting. Not unreasonable to me. But probably is to you BW.
And you have had leg issues, you believe are a direct result from your trying to add weight and not working enough on preparing yourself for the long haul, which is a ML season. So you decide to do more cardio type stuff to make yourself a better runner and get yourself in the best shape you can so you can cover more ground and be faster doing that.
And there you have it BW, the banjo hitting, skinny opposite field hitting, mini Rasmus.
RC — The Gordo-paparzzi is at it again… a bit more toned down this time. Two Q&A’s in Monday’s chat. If you’re interested, type ‘Gordo Chat’ in the search box over at StLToday.
Ha I don’t need to read that stuff HB. One might as well send in a question to a chat in Bangkok Thailand and ask Duangjai Souvannaphouma what he thinks. He would probably know more than does the gentleman that does the Gordo chat.
Do you believe the Gordo zone is a place to gather factual information HB? How do you figure the Gordo zone gathers his facts? Like I have stated before, in a room full of the misinformed the informed appears to be the one who is misinformed.
You might as well pick up a tabloid to gather your facts.
RC — No, I don’t look for facts from Gordo… he’s Luhnow’s amanuensis at the P-D. But I do like the Strauss chats, which are often funny and always interesting. I read both to take the pulse of the Nation… and Strauss, as beat writer, often breaks interesting news tidbits…
Luhnow’s secretary would be a fitting description. El Diablo is a smart asses smart ass so I can see the enjoyment in reading those. My wife reads all of that stuff on the Post Dispatch site. I on the other hand….don’t. But I do have many many students who post on the PD site and they always bring me the stuff where they are killing me on there. We have hundreds of posts on my classroom walls where those guys are ripping me up. They get a kick out of it. And many times have led the bashing. They are so proud that they can rev up the PD posters to tear me up.
My guess is the pulse of the Nation wouldn’t come from those chats. Those on there are most likely the more radical elements of your Nation. Probably very few reasonably thinking people on there imo.
A surprising mix, RC. Some radical and some more thoughtful… The dumb ones get weeded out because although they are billed as ‘live’ chats, the questions are submitted & they pick and choose which to answer.
Although we disagree on some things, I think you’re an alright guy, RC. And I have no doubt you love your boys and have Colby’s best interests at heart. People need to keep that in mind.
Definitely not live in the actual sense. Can control the end result this way. For the writer, they serve a purpose, especially for those who do not blog and lack an outlet for making informal comments that would be out of place in a standard article or column. I check out the beat writer’s one sometimes, but the others not so much.
RC — Good stuff on Colby in the Strauss chat today about future contracts, importance to the team, etc. You might want to check that out. All respectful and positive.
Don’t believe that mess HB. They will never offer Colby a long term deal. That statement right there trumps Strauss every time.
Since Team Rasmus does not control what is offered, one might interpret the above to mean acceptance instead. That is controllable.
Assuming and interpreting are closely related.
While AP and Tony are here…………………………….
Is that “and” or “or”?
There is no or. They are of one mind.
One cannot speak with such certainly about the dynamics of the post-TLR Cardinals.
This is my thing. Who’s to say TLR won’t stay another 5 years if Albert re-signs with St. Louis? It could happen imo.
I have tried to show recently…..with some futility………that Tony’s roll as a go between in this negotiation will likely have consequences………….. he tried a number of times to manage AP last year with his own future in the drivers seat, and got put back in his place every time. …………..
If you think AP is self centered………………….imagine what your facing from him in 2011………. Tony isn’t stupid……….he is bringing in guys that can hold there own……….its his Skin…… against AP’s ego flattering contractual recognition……….. at some point……….they must separate to survive…..
The loosing will demand it………..
RC, while I doubt staying beyond two years will happen, I was thinking about the concept as I was watching the football bowl games and wrote this.
“Learning from Paterno, Bowden and Osborne” .
Thats a winner.
Thats a good article Brian…………….. I think the extremes Tony has endured in recent years, and finally being put into his current position, will define his career………….. so far, not so good. But he is giving himself a fighting chance.
I will say this HB, both you and CC have really worked at proving the other wrong in this battle.
I can just picture both of you googling all night long, collecting data for your next post. I see CC rolling over at 3:00 am in the morning and all of a sudden, he jumps out of his bed and runs to the computer……..he has left it on just in case a thought came to mind in the middle of the night…….CC puts the finishing touches on a post directed at proving HB wrong. As CC turns off the computer……he mumbles something under his breath……I believe it was eff you HB and as he turns off the lights CC blurts out …..hey HB….how do you like me know?
The only person I’ve been cussing lately is myself for being stupid enough to try to talk to a rock.
The beauty of this debate is that I’m sure HB sees it the exact same way.
Blind people can’t see.
RC, if HB were a fly on the wall of the Cardinal clubhouse and saw what really goes on, do you think that would change his opinions?
You know Crdswmn, probably not. It just seems to me that if a cards fan feels a certain way………they aren’t capable of changing their opinion no matter what evidence is presented to them. HB may could be placed in detox and saved…BW is past the point of being salvageable(this is how you throw the hook way back in the bream bed….lets see if we can get a bite).
I’ve alway found, on sites like these, that people resort to insults when they run out of places to hide from the unpleasant realization that the facts are against them.
Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.
——-Mark Twain
Do you really want to go back and review who made this personal?
The discussion began with my post (5) on the ‘Top Stories #1 – The Collapse’ article, dated 1/3. It continues on another article (linked below), ‘…Top Stories – Voting For #1′, dated 1/4, and then came here.
Check out CC’s post of 1/5, 8:09 a.m., under item (6) on the linked story and the comments about ‘irrationality’ and what ‘a smarter person’ would have done. That, IMO, is where this got personal. Of course, my response and later things said added fuel to the fire, generating more heat than light. Apologies to all for my portion.
http://thecardinalnationblog.com/2011/01/04/tcn-blog-reader-top-stories-of-2010-voting-for-1/
My goodness HB. There has been nothing said on either side that would qualify as over the line imo. Just a little disagreement between friends.
RC — I don’t know RC, that part about the sumo towel and the 1 year-old with a pantload was pretty evil on my part….
At least he is consistent in his hypocrisy — the guy complaining about insults taking credit for his insults!
Nothing wrong with a little righteous bashing every now and then. It makes me feel good to let that anger out.
CC — You asked who made this personal. I went back and checked, and found the spot. Can you find an earlier example?
Evil? That wasn’t evil. It was good clean fun. I can tell you that it would be hard for any anonymous person, or actually anyone for that matter, to write anything about me and me give a rip. Look at it that way, neither you or CC know each other. Who cares what the other thinks….really? Just post away and don’t worry about it.
RC — It may have been fun, but talking about skid marks certainly isn’t clean!
With all due respect, the proprietor here asked for a return to civility and continues to expect that.
Buzz killer.
Even teachers report to a principal, at least sort of…
I know Brian….always the rebel am I……..said in my Yoda voice in order to make Jerry Modene happy(since Jerry is a trekky).
If you consider those personal attacks than I guess you are right. But also paranoid or have a guilty conscious.
Two simple questions. Yes or no answers please.
1. Are remarks questioning a person’s intelligence & sanity personal in nature, or part of a collegial discussion about baseball?
2. Can you find any such remarks I made to you prior to yours on 1/5 8:09 a.m., during this discussion?
I’m not denying that I’ve also behaved badly in this matter, engaging in personal attacks, but the question you posed above was, ‘Do you really want to go back and review who made this personal?’
I did go back and check, and discovered an answer I already knew… it was you CC… it was you.
Ok, now you are officially worse than me about having the last word. Go meditate on photos of TLR and you will feel much better.
crdswmn — Don’t relinquish your crown so readily…
Come on, I said you were right. What more do you want? Feel better now?
Either that or they just don’t care about the facts. see BW( taking the fly rod and casting that fly right over near the lily pads….wait for it….wait for it…..wait for it….)
RC begins fanning the flames with his leaf blower……………….. Jumbo…….at some point you need to step back in here and create some law and order…………… no one got out of line when you were marshaling………….. Brian is reading………..but is defiantly not giving up what he is thinking at this point……….. almost with purpose I’d guess……………………. reminding everyone that the Cardinals will field a team…………….knowing more about it than that is completely predicated on “vantage point”……….. There has been enough information “exposed” in the last 6 weeks, to change ownership for god sakes………… is this the emperors new cloths……… management could cover a number of weak positions for chump change right now…….with proven players…………. everything happening was discussed months/years ago. Where do any of you think its heading? You’ve had the description of BD wardrobe so drilled into your head, you aren’t enjoying the parade any longer.
RC– If you don’t mind me borrowing one of your gems….
‘Its like me and CC sitting in a room alone together, all of a sudden I smell a fart and I look at him and say, dammit CC…..you just farted. To which he replies, it wasn’t me. Besides, SABR theory proves that farts no longer exist. Now we’re sitting there and I know I didn’t fart but here he is, grinning like a 1 year-old with a pantload, having added a fresh skid mark to his sumo towel, trying to convince me that he didn’t do it… when I know what the truth is.’
I’ve been cussing myself also, trying to get through to a guy claiming to be highly evolved, but who doesn’t seem to understand that 3.83 is less than 6.00… and better (Suppan vs. PJ), that 3+ months of something good is more helpful than 8 days of it (Winn vs. Craig), that hitting .281 is better than hitting .217 (Miles vs. Mather), and that an opponent referring to a previous debate doesn’t allow the ‘highly evolved’ one to call foul, in an attempt to distract folks from the fact that he’s been busily engaged in having his hat handed to him.
My claim: The Cards had players from Memphis that could provide equal or better production than the the re-treads brought in.
The ground rules (has decided by Tex): We can only compare players during the time period the re-treads were with STL.
Retread 1 – Winn. When Winn came here he took playing time away from Jay and Craig who were both at Memphis at the time.
Winn’s OPS with STL .693 Winn’s WAR 0.1
Craigs’ OPS from the time Winn arrived in STL going forward ,814 WAR >0.1 (it was 0.1 for the season but that includes his terrible start so I am not going to calculate it but am willing to bet it is greater than 0.1. Tex is free to prove me wrong
Jay’s OPS with STL after Winn arrived >.744 (not going to calculate since it is so far superior there is no question who was better) WAR ~ 1.0
Summary:
Craig beats Winn in OPS and WAR over the time period Winn was with STL
Jay Beats Winn in OPS and WAR over the time period Winn was with STL
Advantage Craig
Advantage Jay
retread #2 Miles
Miles OPS while in STL .627 WAR 0
Greene’s OPS while Miles was in STL .629 WAR unknown. I am not going to calculate it. Most likely it is close to 0 his WAR for the year was 0.1
Summary Greene beats Miles in OPS and is a push in WAR
Advantage Greene
retread #3 Feliz
Feliz OPS in STL .482 WAR -2.1
Descalso OPS in STL after Feliz arrived .648 WAR 0.3 (yes it is a small sample size but its all we’ve got- plus more AB’s would only increase the WAR differential!
Summary: Descalso’s beats Miles in OPS and WAR
Advantage Descalso
Retread #4 MacDougal
Tex has admitted Salas pitched better so no need to waste time here
Summary: Salas Beats MacDougal
Advantage Salas
Retread #5 Jeff Suppan
Suppan’s ERA w/ STL 3.84 FIP 4.91 WAR 0.1
Walter’s ERA after Suppan arrived 3.46 FIP < 2.99 (I'm not going to calculate it since it is such a run away) WAR ~0.1(it was 0 for the season but my guess is since the 2nd half was stronger it is at least 0.1 (probably more).
Summary:
While I originally called this a slight advantage for Suppan I misread Walter's stats.
Walters wins in ERA, Walters wins in FIP, it is a push for WAR
Advantage Walters
Again this is small sample size but that's what happens when you dont give guys a chance.
I am not going to address Ottavino or Mather since to disprove Tex's original premise and prove mine there is no need to show that there were multiple players available at each position (though I did that with Winn).
The only argument that Tex can make is that he can argue about whom should be compared to whom. I have only compared players that played similar positions. Even if you mix them to the most advantageous comparison possible for Tex, he would only win comparing the time period Feliz was in STL with Greene going forward from that date (and I'm not sure he wins WAR there – which would make it a push (one wins OPS the other wins WAR).
So we have 5 Advantages for the Memphis guys 0 for the retread (or 4 to 1 in Tex's most favorable match up) That holds up using OPS, WAR, ERA, FIP – you name it.
A re-run… and just as bogus as the first time it was posted. His claim that I established rules that ‘…we can only compare players during the time period the re-treads were with STL’, isn’t true. If he can show where I said that, anywhere, at any time, I will eat his skid mark encrusted shorts.
CC’s ‘comparisons’, based on that falsehood, are made leaving out the stats of farmhands before vets were acquired. This omits the very record of poor performances that got them sent to Memphis & replaced by veterans in the first place… things like Craig hitting .056, Mather hitting .191, Walters with a 7.94 ERA, and Otto with a 8.46 ERA. Surely, a guy as smart as CC can understand why those moves were necessary.
It’s true Winn cost Jay the month of June in MLB. Instead of playing as a reserve with Ludwick starting, Jay was sent to 3A to play every day. When Ludwick went on the DL in early July, Jay returned and started in RF in his place, with Winn as a backup OF.
It’s true that Miles blocked Greene during June. Greene could have been brought up instead, but wasn’t. Maybe hitting .231 and playing poor defense earlier explains why. Greene came up in July, replacing Freese. On 8/1, Greene hit the DL and was sent down on 8/17 when he came off. Feliz was acquired 8/19, potentially blocking Greene for a total of 12 days before roster expansion in Sept. But what really blocked Greene was poor performance, hitting .221 for the year and playing poor defense.
The Descalso vs. Feliz argument is a canard. Descalso played 2B in Memphis. No one thought Descalso should have been promoted to play 3B at the time. But, in fact, he did play better at 3B than Feliz had, given a tiny sample size of 34 ABs compared to 120 for Feliz. That’s not a fair comparison.
The Suppan vs. Walters argument omits Walters’ early work, when he compiled an ERA just under 8.00 (7.94) and so is completely bogus. CC doesn’t address Mather/Ottavino because Mather hit .217 for the year and Ottavino had an ERA of 8.46…. How convenient.
“It’s true” — admitting it doesn’t negate my argument, it only confirms it.
Choose you poison once and for all Tex, do you want to compare the retreads to:
a) system players available when the retread arrived? (Using their OPS/ERA to that point vs. The OPS/ERA the retread player put up as a Cardinal)
b) system available players performance after the retread arrived (using their OPS/ERA of the system players after the retread arrived vs. the OPS/ERA of the retread player as a Cardinal)
c) systems players performance for the whole season (using the OPS/ERA of the systems players vs. the OPS/ERA of the retreads as a Cardinal)
No using one standard for one situation and another standard for another. (I know consistency is hard for you but I faith that you can do it)
There you go Tex, put up or shut up. I’ve given in to you on only using MLB statistics. I’ve given in to you on the time frame (letting you choose what ever you think its most advantageous to your argument). And I will still show that in the majority of cases there were system players available that performed better than the retreads playing primarily the same positions.
Normal group behaviors around here would suggest I take a side……..completely without foundation……….and say your right Tex, the Brazilian is an idiot. I find that loathsome.
Both arguments are “irrelevant” at doing anything more than fulfilling some of your personal needs…………
Greene and Craig, as investments, are once again being passed off as BB solutions this year.
They were covered last year for protection by Wynn and Miles…..at the minimum…….after the sucked out…baseball has nothing to do with it…………….
Today has all pundits are suggesting the Cards are once again not creating on field depth, (denying Tony on field options and discriminations during ST…… against their plan)………….. absolutely no ammo that might back a winning campaign should AP play the lame duck season………….
This gesture is supported by the assumption that they are saving all available resources to hand to AP……………………… the fact is, they are on plan……………
After a thorough review, I’m fairly certain FIP = Fart Ignoring Perception…
This is the southern in you coming out HB……let that smart assness out son.
Outstanding Stuff here HB.
Let’s ease off on the name-calling, folks… Thanks…
Sorry Brian. I’ll do my part. This discussion is long past getting old, but at least it’s more amusing than talking about PEDs and speculating about Albert’s extension.