The Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook trade was one of the biggest and arguably the most surprising story of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2010 season.
As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approached, the St. Louis Cardinals were still in the National League Central Division hunt, holding a slim half-game lead over eventual winner Cincinnati. Their 15-11 July was their best month since having gone 15-8 to open the season.
With third baseman David Freese apparently nearing his return from injury, the organization placed a major bet, trading offense for pitching. The view was that Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia did not offer enough in the rotation to carry them down the stretch. Brad Penny’s return seemed increasingly unlikely, Kyle Lohse was still out following a first-of-a-kind surgery and the minor league hurlers given trials had not impressed.
On July 31, with 58 games remaining, general manager John Mozeliak pulled the trigger on surprise trade, a move that would define his club’s 2010 season. Popular right fielder Ryan Ludwick was sent to San Diego in a three-team deal that netted the Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook from Cleveland and Class A left-hander Nick Greenwood from the Padres. Mozeliak had received a three-year contract extension just two weeks prior.
Along with the addition of starting pitching in Westbrook, at least three other potential contributing factors to the trade were discussed in the media and among fans. The relative importance of each remains open to debate.
1) Opening up time for youngsters. One by-product of dealing Ludwick was the creation of more playing opportunity for outfield prospects. Jon Jay became the primary beneficiary. First called up in late April, the 25-year-old had not stood out in his Major League debut and was soon returned to Triple-A.
Jay not only was back in July, but he stuck in the majors. During the month, he was absolutely red-hot, with a .431/.500/.667 line. To suggest he would adequately fill Ludwick’s void in right field seemed true – but only for awhile.
Though collectively he batted .300 in 105 games overall in 2010, Jay hit just .244 following the trade, putting his starting mettle into question.
2) Ludwick’s salary. In his second of three arbitration-eligible years, Ludwick made $5.45 million in 2010. Some felt the Cardinals did not want to pay that much money for a right fielder, let alone adding to that a likely raise for Ludwick that could net him several million additional for 2011.
That line of thinking might have held water until the club signed Lance Berkman in December for $8 million to play Ludwick’s old right field post next season. The move returns Jay and potential platoon partner Allen Craig to reserve roles.
While Berkman is considered a more accomplished player than Ludwick, he is older and his salary is higher. Further, Berkman has been injury-prone and is on the downside of his career. Several projection systems have suggested the two’s home run and RBI production in 2011 may not be dramatically different.
3) Ludwick’s desire for regular playing time. It was reported that just prior to the trade, the outfielder had approached manager Tony La Russa to express dissatisfaction with not being in the lineup every day. Ludwick previously had a groin injury which led to caution in deploying him. Yet even after he was cleared by the medical staff, Jay had continued to cut into his playing time.
Some wondered whether Ludwick’s ongoing concern was a contributing factor in the trade.
Westbrook cements spot
Upon donning the Cardinals uniform, Westbrook did his part to justify the transaction, exceeding expectations on the mound. With St. Louis, he tossed nine quality starts in 12 outings with a 3.48 ERA. The already-struggling offense did not rebound from the loss of Ludwick, however. One indication is that the team went just 5-7 in Westbrook’s 12 starts.
Still, Westbrook was impressed with the club and they were happy with him as well. Though the 33-year-old right-hander reached free agency, in mid-November he agreed to terms on a new, two-year contract with a mutual option for 2013.
The first two guaranteed years of the deal are worth $16.5 million in total with an additional $1 million if Westbrook wants to return for the third season but the Cardinals instead choose to buy their way out. The annual salaries are $8 million in 2011, and $8.5 million in both 2012 and 2013. Westbrook also received full no-trade protection.
After the trade, Ludwick struggled mightily in a San Diego uniform, posting a line of .211/.301/.330 in 59 games. He was offered arbitration following the season and is expected to be the Padres’ left fielder in 2011.
Impact on the team
While there were likely many factors in the Cardinals disappointing finish beyond this trade, the bottom line is that the club played far better prior to the deal than afterward. In fact, the team logged a sub-.500 record during the final two months while losing 5.5 games in the standings.
| Cardinals | Games | Record | Win % | Division |
| Pre-trade | 104 | 58-46 | 0.558 | +0.5 G |
| Post-trade | 58 | 28-30 | 0.483 | -5.5 G |
With Westbrook on the staff and Ludwick gone, you might suspect that the offense declined while the pitching improved. It turns out that is only partially the case – at best.
| Cardinals | Runs/Game | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Pre-trade | 4.46 | 0.263 | 0.335 | 0.412 |
| Post-trade | 4.69 | 0.261 | 0.326 | 0.384 |
The offense actually improved their run scoring by a quarter of a run per game, yet the Cardinals hitters’ collective average, on-base and slugging all declined post-trade. That may indicate the higher scoring rate would not be sustainable.
| Opponents | Runs/Game | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Pre-trade | 3.68 | 0.254 | 0.318 | 0.383 |
| Post-trade | 4.45 | 0.260 | 0.320 | 0.395 |
The Cardinals’ post-trade pitching was substantially poorer in key measures. Opposing offenses scored three-quarters of a run more per game compared to the first 104 contests. Enemy hitters also had more robust batting averages, on-base percentage and slugging against Cardinals pitching following the trade.
One might wonder if the post-trade numbers would have been even worse without the swap, but the bottom line is that while the Ludwick-Westbrook move was bold, Mozeliak’s big gamble did not pay off in 2010.
Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown
Loading ...Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
[...] Adam the new ace 6. The Penny/Lohse injuries 5. La Russa and Duncan return 4. The Pujols decade 3. The big trade 2. [...]
Happy New Year to all at TCNB!!
Agreed. Happy New Year to everyone…
I have gone back and forth on this trade. At first I was outraged. After a while, though the sting wore off as a I saw Westbrook pitch so well and Luddy not exactly lighting it up in San Diego, and I calmed down. But after the Cardinals paid $16.5 MM to Westbrook and $8M to Berkman I realized the money excuse was BS. Something is rotten in Denmark. Now with Brian’s numbers showing the team did not actually benefit from the trade, methinks something is rotten in more places than Denmark.
Bottom line for me: I’m glad we have Jake but I don’t believe we had to trade Luddy to get him. If the Indians were willing to give him up, which they obviously were, and they received only a minor league prospect from the Pads, why couldn’t the Cards trade for him directly with the Indians? I don’t believe we didn’t have someone else we could have traded to the Indians for Westbrook.
I also hated this trade from day 1, though I never held it against Jake. Couldn’t see the beauty in trading an everyday player and a top run producer for a guy who, at best, could help the team every 5th day. I understand why the club wanted to upgrade the pitching staff, but like crdswmn I think they paid too high.
Ludwick was a great bargain. In 2008, his All-Star year, he made $411K while hitting 37 HR and driving in 117 runs. In 2009, for 22 HR and 97 RBI we paid $3.7M. And even last year’s $5.45 was reasonable. When he left the team he was hitting .281 and led the NL in BA w/RISP.
But Ludwicks’s trade was only part of the reason for the late downfall in 2010. Freese going down for the year 2 days after the deadline and Colby’s 2-week leg injury in mid-August also added to the club’s offensive impotence. So, it was more than just Luds, but he was a big part of it.
Money excuse might not have been BS had the club felt Jay/Craig were viable options as a RF platoon for 2011. Outside of a brief burst at the end, Craig made a poor first impression and Jay went from hitting .396 the day before ‘The Trade’ to a fraction under .300 at the end of the year. The only thing that kept him from falling further was limited playing time down the stretch. Hope he can bounce back and Craig can show better in ’11…
Very nice treatment of this subject Brian……….. the correct placement of the enigmatic mysteries, is fair treatment. To me, some of your best stuff…………
CRD……… the Cardinals could of made this deal with your Cleveland…….. but they would have had to assume the salary……….they would not.
This was a straight salary bail by Cleveland. Many in the league who needed pitching would not take the risk……………. SD knew of our desire to off Ludwig from the Green deal. They were toying with the prospect of using or just investing in Westbrooke in the style of Billy Bean of the A’s….. they were still in lead at that point………….. The Cardinals made a no cost change, the only one they would consider furthering there business plan………..I would remind readers that the exact amount of compensation from Cleveland in this deal is still “confidential” , as is the Cardinal habit when avoiding transparency……………… It was SD that facilitated the entire deal, up until the Cardinals dealt directly with Cleveland over this money matter.
I am well know for not liking Ludwig especially. No loss in my book. The effect on the team and most importantly Jon Jay, cannot be avoided………. to let Jay outplay him was the “baseball way”……………..they gained nothing in that trade save the salary bail used to compensate some the Westbrooke deal…..Ludwick worth no more to them than what they owed him…………. All of the enigma in Brian’s article points to the truth of this.
This is not about baseball……………… DeWitt has been exposed in recent weeks………quit by accident. A very unusual aspect of his Cardinal Ownership holding company has slipped into view……. My projections have not been wrong……….. the novelty of being aware of it though is wearing out…………. I’m just going to root for Tony and team to overcome obstacles to win.
Westie, I believe if you check the official transactions as well as what was said publicly by the SD and Cleveland GM’s, this was technically not a 3 way trade but two separate trades (Clev-SD and SD-STL). Thus the confidential compensation from Cleveland does not exists (except in your vivid imagination)!
Study a little………….the way it ended up is not the way it started. You do not know how much the Union agreed to in changing Westbrook’s trade bonus…….which was requested by SD. The dispensation/equalization to remove the remainder of that guaranteed money was supplied to the Cardinals at that point…………………….the reason we stepped in at that point was should it have been a SD transaction………money goes through them……exposing the amount….. and the possibility that they back out of the Ludwig transaction at the last minute. BD is a deadly business man.
And I’m sure your evidence of this is the same as always……………..Zero.
Tell us a little about yourself Brazilian……………middle management for some US agricultural interest?………………… Your punking me again…..I let my dog play with my leg on occasion……..but your different………a grown man…… go away.
Read this thread……….and tell me you don’t have some personal problems………….I’m putting you back on the my bench because I can’t justify any dialog with you. If you are wheel chair bound or handicapped in some way, I apologize……it’s not my intension to be cruel……….you lack sincerity in my opinion………….
“My projections have not been wrong” Getting old Westie? Memory slipping a bit? Last year you predicted the Cards would follow what you deemed their business plan and have an $82 million opening day payroll. OF course no one here actually believed you had one iota of an idea of what the Cardinal’s business plan was (nor do they now).
I agree…………before the Holiday deal……which is still above you “view it seems”…….I liked that number………………..Nothing funny at all about the Holiday deal huh? Lets see where this goes.
Wrong again Westie. That was afterwards. Almost into Spring training.
Funny here how only you have the correct view. I guess the rest of us are just idiots. At least some of us are idiots with memories.
The Cards resigned Westbrook at about $3MM less per year than his last deal. Also providing salary relief was departure of Brad Penny, who made about $7.5MM. Westbrook is in effect the replacement for Penny at not much more money.
Shedding Ludwick’s salary was important both seasons. In 2010, it allowed Mo to add an expensive pitcher in Westbrook. In 2011, Ludwick’s departure covers most of the salary for Bergman.
So “not much more” and “covers most” means trading Luddy saved money? Check your math.
Marilyn, here is a tip, apt for Jan 1. 2011 and 2010 represent different fiscal years for Mo.
Give me a break. I could gerrymander enough numbers to put you to sleep but it wouldn’t turn a frog into a prince.
The down side of a recap of top stories is they’ve been commented to death before.
I’m convinced we haven’t heard the true reason for trading Luddy because nothing Mo has said about it makes any sense. We were fighting for the division title and starting pitching hadn’t been costing games, clutch hitting had. So Mo trades our best clutch hitter for a started and we fell out of the race. Big surprise. There had to have been a strong motivation to cause Mo to do something which logically would exacerbate the team’s weakness in the stretch drive for the title. The explanation that he thought the team would need a deeper rotation down the road made me laugh a first, but I wasn’t laughing when the Reds went to post and our deep rotation went home.
Since Mo’s explanation didn’t really fly, some in the media speculated that it was really an effort to save money on RF in 2011. Now that that’s been shown to not hold water we haven’t heard any alternative speculation. I doubt we ever will.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Translation please. I don’t speak dot.
Did you write this piece Crdswmn?
http://redbirdrants.com/2011/01/01/the-tony-larussa-problem/
The TCU victory is a negative for Auburn RC………… I think 6 weeks of prep for Oregon is going to cause problems for your boys…………….
Oregon should probably win WC. Auburn has a great defensive line but you and I could start at defensive back for them. Auburns offense has been just about equal to Oregon’s in a much stronger conference. They key will be Oregon’s “D”. If they can stop Auburn they will win.
TCU wasn’t any good and Wisconsin looked as un athletic as any team I’ve watched play today. I believe I could have made Wisconsin’s team as a QB this year if that was the best they could come up with. Their QB was terrible. TCU put 8 in the box all day and that rag arm QB from Wisconsin couldn’t complete a pass to save his life. Both TCU and Wisconsin would have gotten beat by 28 by Bama today.
Bama just beat the wholly molly out of Mich State. Miss State, I said Miss State, beat Michigan like my grandaddy used to beat me when I did wrong. Needless to say there isn’t much good football being played in Michigan this year. Man those two teams were ugly to watch.
Florida couldn’t score many points this year in the SEC so I was shocked to see them win, but it just goes to show you that the Big 10 is bordering on being worse than the Big East in football this year.
The SEC West went 3-0 today against the Big 10.
And now the night game is some school I have never heard of playing against Oklahoma. I believe its the Helen Keller school of the blind. UCONN I see it is. They would have a better chance if they put the girls basketball team out there. They look more physical than this bunch of guys they have.
RC — I bet your grandaddy was a busy, busy, man!
HB, You have no idea.
RCW-didn`t help much did it? Still a bad boy.
I don’t know if she did-her name isn’t Ray DeRousse, is it?
This captured perfectly just about every reason I think going forward with LaRussa is a bad idea.
You can believe this or not but this quote right here is the problem with the cardinals today imo.
“However, LaRussa’s teams almost always resemble a sorority; gossipy, cliquish, divided, tense, jealous, and uncomfortable. This is almost entirely LaRussa’s fault, as his personality and tendency toward favoritism cultivates this type of atmosphere. The number of players emotionally and professionally mutilated or destroyed by a LaRussa clubhouse is disturbing.”
So, what does that make guys like Albert, Yadi and Skip?
1 HOF player, 1 gold glove catcher, and 1 .300 hitting 2B.
Ray is my first cousin once removed and we communicate telepathically.
Oh how I wish I had written it. I want to buy this guy a beer.
crdswmn- maybe you ought to help the guy try and sober up and say no to drugs.
The author must read the comments here at TCNB. I don’t see much of anything that hasn’t been mentioned.
crdswmn and the authoress both wore their tinfoil hats and mind-melded… just like you and your dog, bb…
I think maybe Ray might take exception to being called an “authoress” HB.
Wait till BW reads that article, authoress may very well seem kind.
RCW- I read the article and its not worth letting the dog crap on it.Another whiny ass gerbil with a agenda.Big freaking deaL.
crdswmn — Are you a Yankee? Down south, Ray ain’t necessarily a man’s name… not even in southern Illinois, where I grew up (sort of).
If you are asking whether my family were Yankees during the Civil War, the answer is yes. But I am from southern Missouri.
The female name is usually spelled R-A-E. I think it is safe to assume the author is male.
crdswmn — I have the same problem, Yankee soldiers in the lineage, twin brothers of my g-g-grandfather… but thankfully, both died in the war before they could reproduce and further embarrass the family. A couple years ago, I found their graves in the National Cemetery on the battlefield at Murfreesboro, TN. My grandpa, James Albert, was named after one of them, but nobody in my family ever talked about it.
Southern MO explains a lot… DNA… (Danged Near Arkansas). I get the Rae/Ray thing, but you must be assuming southerners can spell. Bad move for the most part. Look at RC!
I was actually messing with the author(ess), taking a backhanded swipe. Lots of hate in that piece, not much logic. Appropriately located at Redbird Rants. ‘She’ tries to downplay TLR’s 3rd best win total as the work of a ‘mediocre’ guy who’s just been around a long time. Sorry, mediocre managers don’t have 32 year careers… but winning managers do.
Stopped reading after that. Too painful to watch someone make a (donkey) out of themself in public like that.
HBT-The right side won the civil war HBT.Its over and done with.As for the article ………….RD showed a lot of hate and plain ignorance IMO.Not worth letting the dog crap on it.
Finally something we agree on Bw, the war of northern aggression is over and done with.
Happy New Year by the way. To all.
BB- the war to stop the rebellion .That war.
bb — It’s not over, really. It’s just taken on a different form… legislation instead of lead.
Bw52 — Rebellion against what?
Bw52 — I actually would let the dog have its way with that article… multiple times.
If you knew what I know about the CW, what preceded it and what followed it, you might have a different point of view about right & wrong. And I say that as someone who was raised in “The Land of Lincoln” and has Union soldiers in his family tree. What you’re taught in history class isn’t always the truth or the whole truth. What constitutes history depends on who writes it… and In civil struggles, the winner usually writes the history.
HBT-read a lot about the CW.Many factors contributed to both sides growing farther apart.Slavery,states rights,economics,etc;.
The said part is that it was american versus american.Here in Kentucky (a border state) there are many who still tout their Southern heritage and cuss the damn yankees still.
Yes the victors do usually write the history after a war.Its like the arguement happening here in Kentucky now because the Governer wants to give state money to a group wanting to build a Noahs Ark park .a religous themed park………………………He is going against the separation of church and state.Of course i am sad to say that unfortunenately Kentucky already is home to the “Creation museum and park” whose builders and supporters have dinosaurs and people living in the same time period and they scoff at science that differs.
I knew it BW. You’re a damn Yankee.
Thats why you don’t think right.
I understand about stopping reading. The truth really does hurt.
My great great grandfather fought at the Battle of Vicksburg and was captured and sent to Andersonville prison where he spent 8 months until he was released on a prisoner exchange, Any southern sympathy that lurked in my family died after that.
I’m a combination of German on my fathers side and Southern on my moms so I do have issues. I have a large number of relatives who fought for the South against Northern aggression, and a number who fought for Germany against the world. Go figure. I am blue eyed and blond headed.
I am German on my father’s side also, and Irish on my mother’s. Being a Yankee isn’t BW’s problem unless you want to put me in that category also.
I know it is hard for a southerner to accept but there are Yankees who have sense. 
No but I do sense the Yankee theme of I’m smarter than everybody else out of BW. I wouldn’t throw you in with that group Crdswmn.
thats blonde by the way.
RC be careful, I think you just called HB a Yankee.
My dad told me when he was in Korea he didn’t give a damn about commies one way or another, and niether did anybody else that he knew. He just prayed every day he wouldn’t get his ass shot off until he could go home. I’d guess most soldiers of past times were the same. It’s people selling books that conjure up gallant warriors dying for the righteous cause.
RCW- i don`t think i am smarter than anyone else.I just have a low tolerance for Bullsh*t and hot air.
Crdswmn- you got something to say to me by all means say it.Shyness doesn`t seem to be your usual routine.
I don’t have anything particular to say right now BW. I was just responding to RC.
Crdswmn- no problem..have a safe night.
crdswmn — Was your g-g-grandfather actually captured at Vicksburg or in one of the other related battles or in a later campaign? The fight for Vicksburg spanned over 7 months and included a series of battles & maneuvers at places like Chickasaw Bluff, Steele’s Bayou, Port Gibson, Raymond, and two asssaults at Vicksburg itself followed by a siege that ended when the city & its defenders surrendered July 4th, 1863. If he was captured at Vicksburg, he would have been freed when his comrades took the city.
I can check into it him you want to share his name. It would helpful to know which state he enlisted in.
Andersonville, more propertly Camp Sumter, wasn’t opened until late Februrary 1864. Most of the prisoners were moved in Sept. when Gen. Sherman captured & occupied Atlanta. The camp was designed to hold 10,000, but eventually held over 30,000 prisoners, about 1/3 of whom died there, mostly of disease. If your gggf was exhanged, he was one of the lucky ones. Those who died there can thank their own leader… Gen Grant.
Prisoner exchanges were stopped by his order on April 17, 1864. On August 18th that year, Grant wrote US exchange commissioner [Gen. Butler] as follows… “It is hard on our men held in Southern prisons not to exchange them, but it is humanity to those left in the ranks to fight our battles. Every man we hold, when released on parole… becomes an active soldier against us at once either directly or indirectly. If we commence a system of exchange which liberates all prisoners taken, we will have to fight on until the whole South is exterminated. If we hold those caught, they amount to no more than dead men… to release rebel prisoners… would insure Sherman’s defeat [in Georgia] and would compromise our safety [in Virginia].”
Conditions in Andersonville and other Southern prisons were, by this time, well known. The Confederate authorities, finding it difficult to secure provisions for prisoners and army, allowed five non-commissioned officers to go through the lines bearing a petition from the prisoners at Andersonville, setting forth the conditions there and asking for exchange; but to no purpose. Nor was the protest of the commissioned officers more successful.
Since the Confederate armies could be beaten only by exhausting them, every means by which those armies were prevented from being increased was justified in Grant’s eyes. And that included letting Union soldiers rot and die in POW camps.
‘War is all hell. It is cruelty and you cannot refine it’. — Gen. W.T. Sherman