Looking at ERA+ marks by the St. Louis Cardinals’ top three pitchers over the Albert Pujols years.
Where we last left this discussion, there seemed no correlation between a top season by three St. Louis Cardinals offensive leaders and the club making the playoffs. My natural curiosity led me from hitting to pitching, which is the subject of this article.
For each season of the last decade, the Albert Pujols years, I selected the Cardinals’ top three starting pitchers based on ERA+, a good summary cross-season measurement. Despite the five-man rotation, I chose three because that is the same sample size previously used for the hitters. That selection will become even more clear later in this article.
For visual clarity, I left pitchers in the same column from year to year.
| Year | ERA+ | ERA+ | ERA+ | |||
| 2001 | Morris | 137 | Williams | 190 | Kile | 140 |
| 2002 | Morris | 117 | Williams | 159 | An Benes* | 144 |
| 2003 | Morris | 110 | Williams | 106 | Stephenson | 90 |
| 2004 | Carpenter | 124 | Suppan | 103 | Marquis | 115 |
| 2005 | Carpenter | 150 | Suppan | 119 | Mulder | 116 |
| 2006 | Carpenter | 144 | Suppan | 108 | Reyes* | 88 |
| 2007 | Wellemeyer | 142 | Wainwright | 119 | Pineiro* | 112 |
| 2008 | Wellemeyer | 115 | Wainwright | 133 | Lohse | 113 |
| 2009 | Carpenter | 182 | Wainwright | 155 | Pineiro | 117 |
| 2010 | Carpenter | 122 | Wainwright | 161 | Garcia | 145 |
| 2011# | Carpenter | 117 | Wainwright | 140 | Westbrook | 101 |
* partial season
# career averages
The first thing that jumped out at me was the passing of the torch of staff ace from Matt Morris at the end of the prior decade to Woody Williams to Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright, with a few gap seasons in the middle.
Another thing that caught my eye was the ever-changing names in the third column. In this case, the third is not based on salary or rotation order, but in terms of results – being one of the top three in the rotation as measured by ERA+.
It is amazing to me that while two of the top three often remained constant from year to year, the identity of the third top pitcher changed ten times in ten years!
Looking ahead to 2011, I could have assumed Jaime Garcia’s second season will be superior to Jake Westbrook’s, but I didn’t. With just one full season under Garcia’s belt, that seemed presumptuous when Westbrook already has a consistent body of work. (For completeness, Kyle Lohse’s career ERA+ is 93.)
As in the earlier analysis, I assumed career ERA+ marks for Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright next season.
Summing the top three pitchers’ annual ERA+ marks and ranking the seasons from high to low provides this:
| Rank | Year | ERA+ | ERA+ | ERA+ | Total | Playoffs | |||
| 1 | 2001 | Morris | 137 | Williams | 190 | Kile | 140 | 467 | yes |
| 2 | 2009 | Carpenter | 182 | Wainwright | 155 | Pineiro | 117 | 454 | yes |
| 3 | 2010 | Carpenter | 122 | Wainwright | 161 | Garcia | 145 | 428 | no |
| 4 | 2002 | Morris | 117 | Williams | 159 | An Benes* | 144 | 420 | yes |
| 5 | 2005 | Carpenter | 150 | Suppan | 119 | Mulder | 116 | 385 | yes |
| 6 | 2007 | Wellemeyer | 142 | Wainwright | 119 | Pineiro* | 112 | 373 | no |
| 7 | 2008 | Wellemeyer | 115 | Wainwright | 133 | Lohse | 113 | 361 | no |
| 8 | 2011# | Carpenter | 117 | Wainwright | 140 | Westbrook | 101 | 358 | TBD |
| 9 | 2004 | Carpenter | 124 | Suppan | 103 | Marquis | 115 | 342 | yes |
| 10 | 2006 | Carpenter | 144 | Suppan | 108 | Reyes* | 88 | 340 | yes |
| 11 | 2003 | Morris | 110 | Williams | 106 | Stephenson | 90 | 306 | no |
* partial season
# career averages
Four of the top five seasons were playoff years, with 2010 the lone exception. 2011 slots in at number eight of 11, but if Garcia’s career ERA+ of 133 was used instead of Westbrook’s 101, the additional 32 points would vault the 2011 projection up to number five.
Not wanting to prolong this process, I did take it one final step to try to tie up the loose ends. I am going to list it here rather than running yet another similarly-themed piece tomorrow.
In perhaps some bad chemistry, I added the OPS+ of the top three hitters each year to the ERA+ of the top three starting pitchers and re-ranked the Pujols years.
| Rank | Year | OPS+ | ERA+ | Total | Playoffs |
| 1 | 2009 | 463 | 454 | 917 | yes |
| 2 | 2001 | 423 | 467 | 890 | yes |
| 3 | 2010 | 454 | 428 | 882 | no |
| 4 | 2002 | 452 | 420 | 872 | yes |
| 5 | 2004 | 499 | 342 | 841 | yes |
| 6 | 2008 | 464 | 361 | 825 | no |
| 7 | 2005 | 435 | 385 | 820 | yes |
| 8 | 2011# | 452 | 358 | 810 | TBD |
| 9 | 2003 | 485 | 306 | 791 | no |
| 10 | 2006 | 444 | 340 | 784 | yes |
| 11 | 2007 | 381 | 373 | 754 | no |
# career averages
While the top years changed slightly, the end result was similar to the pitchers’ in that four of the top five scoring seasons ended with a playoff berth. Whether there is real correlation here, coincidence or something in between, I don’t know.
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Clearly, having a strong trio of hitters and pitchers at the top of the roster has to help their chances considerably. However, if the other 19 guys on the team can’t also contribute, it won’t get them anywhere.
Of course sometimes, such as in 2006, they just get lucky.
Others might assert that the 2006 club was plagued by injuries and they hit their peak at the right time. Either way, they won.
Garcia clearly won’t have another season as productive as 2010, but I’m thinking that he is still an above average arm. Wainwright is improving each season, so he’ll probably at least best his career average. Westbrook is rather consistently average. Carpenter’s career average is dragged down by his clearly less dominant pre-Cardinal days, but he is hardly getting younger, so it probably all balances out. Lohse continually strives to be average.
Why do you think Garcia won’t improve just as any other young pitcher would?
Barring injuries, I can’t see why not.
Oh, I’m sorry. I meant to answer when BB questioned the same thing. I’m not suggesting that Garcia won’t improve as a pitcher as I’m sure that he’ll only continue to get better. However, his 2010 stats were boosted by a heck of a lot of luck, and there’s not a great chance that he’ll end up with another 145 ERA+ in 2011.
Garcia had an outstanding ERA of 2.70 in 2010. His FIP was 3.41, showing that he got a bit lucky in terms of batted balls and the distribution of his baserunners. A 7.3% HR/FB rate is entirely unsustainable, so his xFIP was even higher at 3.73. Still very good, but not spectacular as his 2010 ERA would suggest.
Sorry I asked
2006 tells what is good enough to get to the promised land. Out big stars, hitting and pitching, won’t be the problem. Like Nut says, its the other guys.
I’m not sure its all that clear Garcia won’t match his 2010.
It is not out of the question that it will be niether hitting not pitching that does us in, but defense.
I would expect that there is no way for Waino to be better than last year. I say he will be around the same marks but not better than 2010. The elbow issues at the end of the season in my mind makes for a nervous 2011 as in my experiences those elbow issues never go away and more times than anything turn into something much more significant.
Carp appears to be on the downhill side of dominant but he is such a fiery competitor that I believe there is no way for him not to battle his way to a successful season. But I wouldn’t expect any improvement on 2010 as the HR’s allowed were a problem that may get worse.
Garcia can’t be expected to be better than last year either as he was remarkable. I do worry about a soph slump. But with leadership from Carp and Waino I believe he will be OK.
I expect Westbrook to be a big upgrade over our 4 guy from 2010. This is where the cardinals should see vast improvement. I actually believe Westbrook can quite possibly be number 2 on this list at years end.
And finally Lohse is gonna be much better so the cardinals will have the last two spots in the rotation that should be hug improvements over the 2010 production.
So in summary, if Waino is as good, Carp a little down along with Garcia and Westbrook and Lohse are way up the rotation would apprear to me to have a chance to be much better in 2011 as a whole.
Garcia won 13 games in 2010. Are you saying he can never win more? That he can’t win 20, or win the Cy Young in the future? Why? I don’t understand your statement. Splain please
Not at all. I believe Jaime to possibly win 20 one day. I just wouldn’t expect that this year. I just feel there may be a little bit of a let down this year as there seemed to be some concern over his arm at the end of the season in 2010. So I’m not expecting any upgrade over his 2010 numbers.
I don’t think there was any concern about his arm. I think they were just being careful since there was no reason to push him.
It would be reasonable for him to wear down the first full season after TJ. I would expect that, of the five, Garcia is least likely to go down this year.
I am also warming to Westy’s idea that counting on Franklin another year is pushing one’s luck. We have some hard throwers, and with Franky hanging it up after this year, it would be reasonable to try to ease somebody else into the role.
In the P-D today the story is the ‘contending’ Twins are looking at Brendan for ‘infield depth.
The conteding Cards should be doing the same. Or did we re-up mighty Miles.
Seems like a good deal to send Brendan to the Twins and then sign Edgar for the backup role. Tony is a big Renteria fan and Edgar could also fill in for Skipper when the manager feels that Skip would need a rest. A super utility guy who could also play a big role as a pinch hitter and late game double switch candidate. Win win. You would probably hear another comment or two about the clubhouse upgrade by adding Edgar as well.
Except that Renteria is old and has no upside, while Brendan Ryan still has lots of it. It might make TLR more comfortable, but it wouldn’t make for a stronger team on the field.
First of I’m a Brendan fan. I would love to have him on my team. I love his enthusiasm for the game and his loyalty to the cardinals is unmatched by any other player on the team.
I don’t believe Tony trusts Brendan (because of all of the negative comments in the media by him) and no matter how much Brendan wants to be a cardinal I believe the situation may be better for him if he finds himself somewhere else. The wrist surgery did him in last year plain and simple. Nothing else. He will be much improved this year with the bat, I’d bet my life on it, and he will end up as the starter on some team if he is traded. I don’t believe Tony will ever give him that chance again. I don’t believe you can repair the bridges that have been burned with Tony. Just my opinion.
And as far as Edgar goes, Tony will use him so as to maximize his abilities. This is a Tony strong suit and I believe Edgar will be a better player under Tony for the Cardinals than any other player used in that role.
I’d be okay with Brendan Ryan and Edgar Renteria on the bench over Tyler Greene.
Or Theroit — Hey, I’m entitled to dream!
You need to go ahead and let that Theriot at SS sink in and settle on your stomach. That my friend is a done deal. The Big Kahuna has spoken on that issue.
but I refuse to accept mediocrity when it comes to my Cardinals – at least when it comes with a $3 million price tag!
Honestly I believe every move was made in an effort to give Tony the tools that he works with the best. I have argued for this for a while now. In my opinion this is the only was that you can build a team around Tony at this stage in his managerial career. I believe you will be presently surprised at the end of the year CC. I believe Tony will have one of his better years as a manager in the last 4 in 2011.
Where is the Renteria rumor coming from? I thought the Giants offered him a contract?
I actually read that he wasn’t signed as of today somewhere but the dollar amount offered by the giants made me think he may be a fit money wise for the cardinals if Brendan was traded.
Old… no upside… and the clutchest guy with a bat in his hands in a big game you ever want to see. Like hitting a 3-run bomb to win the deciding game for the Giants, or driving in a run in extra innings that won a WS for the Marlins.
The articles show baseball is truly a team sport. The Cardinal’s best, 100 wins, years 04 & 05 fall in the middle of the list. While the 3rd best, 2010, for the top 6 players failed to make the playoffs. The luck of 06 was being in a weak division, but when healthy the team was a winner. Here is to all the Cardinals having a good year.
Your team point is a good one and underlines the inherent risk in paying a few players a high percentage of payroll. The “fill in” players either have to be from the farm system and/or you have to hope to get lucky with Ryan Ludwick-type finds from the bargain bin in order to field that competitive team.
Its worth giving some thought to what ‘competitive’ means. Stumbling to the title of a weak division and then getting you pants pulled down in front of the whole baseball world like ’09 is not my idea of competitive.
With that in mind, avoiding the end of season crash and burn is a key objective. That may be what is behind the Berkman/Theriot/ (Benjie?) thing as much as what they will do day to day throughout the season. Berkman may not be much of an outfielder in July, but he’ll show up in September and maybe have what it takes to rally the troops, unlike the clubhouse leaders last year. It sounds like Colby doesn’t want to be on the outside looking in (or patrolling CF in Toronto) and maybe not having Luddy to offering some solace in the clubhouse the end of last year is what convinced him. It will be a shame if Brendan doesn’t get that same chance.
The roof of the Metrodome collapsed under the weight of the snow. Smart move leaving the roof off Target field. For a boy from sunny So. Cal. it must sound like hell on earth. Of course, St. Louis is little better today. 30mph wind blowing the snow around, wind chill near 0. Tried to shovel the driveway, gave up.
As I understand it, part of the problem is the fabric roof of the dome is more prone to failure. In the past, they would send crews up there to try to shovel it off before the weight became too much. I recall once in the 80′s when we were at a Twins game there and it tore during a thunderstorm and water was gushing in.
Since then, technology has gotten better with parks with removable domes like in Milwaukee. I was in Seattle at a Mariners game this summer when a storm came through. It took seven minutes to close the Safeco Field roof as I recall. Fast and quiet.
Because of the climate extremes, I think not putting a removable roof on Target Field will prove to have been a short-sighted decision by the Twins’ late owner. Carl Pohlad was known for being tight with his money despite having been a very successful banker. Or maybe it was because of it…
Here’s the video of the collapse. Sunday’s Giants-Vikings game was moved to another domed stadium in Detroit and will be held Monday night.
That is a wild video! My poor Vikings are forced to play a home game in Detroit, though? It’s a sad day…
Next time the Twins make the WS, they’re going to look awfully funny playing home games in November wearing snowshoes…
You probably like indoor football too. I don’t go to the Ed, but I try to get to Arrowhead once a year. I would never attend another indoor baseball game. But then, I probably will never attend another of those afternoon games in August either. For the longest time, I wouldn’t go to an aluminum bat game, nor a DH game. Finally had to cave on those. I live quite close to the Affton Athletic Assoc complex, a lot of enjoyable ball gets played there. There is something about the view of a baseball game from behind chain link that just can’t be equalled.
No, but watching any event in 30 degree temperatures and sleet is far from ideal. If MLB adds more wild cards without compressing the schedule somehow, that is what November baseball in Minnesota could be like. Snow in October is not uncommon.
One of my concerns about removable domes is their potential misuse. Houston is a great example. Even when the weather is beautiful, if the opponent is a rival and they want to try to make noise a factor, they keep the lid on Minute Maid – and they get away with it.
The Twins didn’t get Brendan Ryan–The Mariners did.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Yech. So they gave him away.
To a terrible team, at that. Sorry, Brendan.
Oh and for nothing. A pitching prospect with a 13.50 ERA in the majors.
My condolences crdswmn… hope you get the Brendan Ryan ‘game-licked’ jersey you asked Santa for.
Good luck to young Brendan in Seattle.
I have a subscription to MLB.TV so I can watch Mariners games when I want to. I truly believe Brendan will show everyone that 2010 was not the real Brendan.
Here here. I loved the quotes that Brendan gave. I’m glad to be going somewhere that I’m wanted. Awesome stuff.
Looks like Brendan wasn`t worth so much after all.Cleto looks like a project.A young power arm to turn into a bullpen type.
Jack Zduriencik is laughing his a$$ off at Mo’s stupidity right now.
Is Tyler Greene breathoing a bit easier now or is this the start of a couple of other moves.Read elsewhere that a reader wondered if trading BR was opening the door for more money for signing Bengie Molina.
How much money was Ryan was going to make? I can’t see that being the difference unless Mo is down to looking for change in the couch. The trade could certainly open up a spot for Greene, Descalso or a veteran infield signing.
I had mentioned before that I wondered if Bengie isn’t waiting to see which two of the three of the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays don’t get Russell Martin. At least one deep-pocketed team is going to still be looking and there isn’t all that much catching competition out there on the free agent market.
BR wasn`t going to make a killing thats for sure.He still was probably going to get a raise however small.IMO this does open the door for Tyler Greene and Descalso.Any vet signing would have to be for the minimum IMO.Then who knows for sure.
I read a comment by TLR somewhere where he stated that Tyler G was gonna be the utility guy a while back. This move was inevitable.
My article on the trade is now posted with quotes and background commentary.
Seattle always needs new fans Crdswmn.
That was unnecessary BW. You should add the word tolerance to your vocabulary.
Crdswmn-After reading your constant trashing and griping about Mo and TLR and not replying……………….i really know what tolerance means.Your opinion counts no more than mine.
I never said my opinion counts more than yours. You however, continuously insinuate that I am not a Cards fan. Your last post is just the latest, you have done it before. You have always been welcome to reply to my bashing. Yet you just make unfounded insinuations instead. Perhaps you should try responding to me in the future. I would respect you more for it.
crdswmn-i think you are a fan who is a bit harsh concerning TLR and the FO.That`s all.Never said you were not a fan.Perhaps i should have added a smileyface after my Seattle fan comment.It was meant tongue in cheek.
Some of the more beautiful country you ever want to see in Seattle. Good for Mo. I give him credit for giving Brendan a chance. He was done in St. Louis.
I have been to Seattle twice. It is beautiful. I just wish he would have been traded to the Twins instead. I can’t imagine they didn’t have a lousy A-ball pitcher they could have given us.
Anywhere is a better place. I’ve been just giddy since I heard the news. The A ball guy has some upside. 100 mph is hard but that ERA tells me that he is not real good right now. But with some coaching from the cardinals minor league guys maybe this guy can turn into something special.
Crdswmn -don`t expect hearts and flowers after throwing bricks.
Perhaps you should take a lesson from HB. He knows how to respond to me with respect. HB and I agree on virtually nothing, yet I consider him a friend.
Ditto, crdswmn… But we agree on one very big thing. We are CARDINALS fans!!!!
Brian — What’s your read on Donovan Solano? Any chance he might give Greene a run for his money in Spring Training?
Don’t forget about Descalso. Solano has always been in advanced leagues for his age, though he turns 23 in a few weeks so that is less of a plus. He struggles with the bat but fields well. He has hit in winter ball, but that is different competition. Solano has been left exposed to the Rule 5 draft the last two years and was not taken. He would be a significant longshot after Greene and Descalso in the spring.
I was thinking more about a backup SS. Dirty Dan has only 12 games there in his MiLB career, vs. 343 at 2B, 15 at 1B and 49 at 3B. With Ryan gone we need a backup for Theriot.
I’ve never been much impressed with Tyler Greene’s ‘hands of stone’ or his .222 BA in two MLB stints. This is Greene’s make-or-break year. As I discovered (somewhat painfully) he is in his last option year in 2011. If he doesn’t hit or improve his FPCT, he’ll be the next SS on the trading block.
Mo could have gotten similar value from other teams, surely. Basically nothing. It was important to ensure that Brendan wouldn’t appear at Busch anytime soon, or play vs the Cards anytime soon. Or be on TV in St. Louis, or be on a post-season team. Out of sight, out of mind. No lingering backlash from fans, especially if the quality of play on the infield is not up to reasonable standards.
Great point Bling. You are probably right.
None of those embarrasing standing Os for the returning traded away player.
So funny if the Mariners trade him and he ends up rolling thru Busch.
I would definitely go to that game if it happened. I was at the first Padres game at Busch after the Ludwick trade. It was awesome.
Yeah, that seems quite reasonable, BB.
Another thing the Ryan trade could mean is that there might be several minor league FAs with some MLB experience getting NRIs to Spring training.
A quick look at some comment boards, wow, almost all negative on the trade. The beat boys have some work to do.
The trade is getting a beating on Twitter too. Lots of “efffing” going on. “)
Brian can you add an edit function to this blog too?
its about time for a clubhouse chemistry story bashing Brendan as a clubhouse cancer.
I’m sure we won’t have to wait long.
We probably would have it already except it is Sunday and the Rams are playing.
I would think the Mariners could get better value for Brendan than a class A hack. Those same teams are still looking for a middle infield depth guy. If they turn around and make a nice profit, that would be Mo’s worst nightmare. No spinning that.
There is no doubt the trade is a lose for the Cardinals but a win for Brendan. I’m satisfied that Mo was determined to do right by Brendan….and he did.
At first I was disappointed because it wasn’t the Twins but then I read an article that Brendan was going to get a chance to start with the Mariners. He might not have with the Twins. Still, the Twins are a better team……
Second starter traded in less than 6 month in exchange for a fringe minor leaguer. Who put that 2010 team with such terrible players together? Who coached such players into underachievement?
CC — Who was the other starter? Ludwick was traded for a fringe MiLB type AND Westbrook. That’s not quite the same as this Brendan deal.
CC-=who made all those players play under their normal standards? Was it the FO and the manager? Or was it just the players themselves?
Mo didn’t surround Tony with the kind of player that he works well with in 2010. Its looking much better this year to this point.
Uncle Walt to Mariner’s GM: I’ll trade you Cairo for Ryan and 25 pairs of goggles.
Wouldn’t that be funny if the Reds pulled off that kind of deal?
Well, I guess we better just make the best of it. We go with a utility infielder at short, a utility outfielder at 2nd, probably a AAAA outfielder at third, and a DH in right. No proven depth behind any of them, at least until Mo sifts thru the chum bucket in March. OK, I’m on board with that. Don’t stand between me and the ticket window. I’ll bet Albert’s following Mo around asking if the contract is ready yet.
bling you have a stable full of Tony types and that is a good thing, believe it or not. Those kind of guys will battle and bust their butts for Tony. You just watch and see.
Just like Randy Winn and Aaron Miles and…… Yep 2011 will be our year yessiree.
Ha ha Berkman and Theriot are a tad above those two I’m thinking.
Uh…….metaphor? You said “Tony types”. I was being sarcastic. You know?
Hey I’m just trying to keep BW from putting you in your place with a little deflection.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1458551188859&set=t.1078032747
Here’s ya two baseball players Crdswmn.
My bad Crdswmn, meant to put this one on here to brighten your day.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10150146147825436&set=t.1078032747&pid=11637744&id=780345435
It says “content currently unavailable”. Did you trade them?
I wouldn’t count out Freese and Jay yet.
Thats the catch 22 Bling. Albert better get used to being surrounded by these types of players when he signs his record setting contract.
RC- Players like Matt Holliday,Yadi Molina and Adam Wainwright? The only player i recall Albert griping about lately was Colby (and that was supposedly fixed).As for having complimentary type players……………………every teams has to have some unless they have a unlimited budget like the Boston Bastids or the Phollies or Yankees.
So you’re basically agreeing with what I was saying then right? Cause you named one offensive stud in Holliday, Yadi is a defensive stud. So there has got to be 5 more players in the batting order not counting the pitcher. How many of that 5 are complimentary types? Freese, Skip, Theriot, Berkman, Colby, are all that type of player. That to me would be surrounding Albert with those types of guys, right?
RC-tall of them could be considered complimentary types to Albert.
SD just made a good run at the playoffs with 1 big hoss (Gonzalez ) and many complimentary types.Cards have 2 big dollar hitters when AP signs his extension.Just because guys don`t make the big bucks and have a marquee names it doesn`t mean they can`t play the game.
Complimentary doesn’t mean bad players, they are just not the recognized as th elite type of player.
And by the way I believe Matt and Albert were in the top 5 of hitters in the national league which puts Matt right there along side of Albert. As well as the 120 million bucks put him above Albert……………..for the time being.
RCW- IMO you are going to see more homegrown younger players playing bigger roles all across baseball because of economics.The Yankees and Redsux will play fast and loose with cash…………………..almost everybody else has to show some restraint.
I agree, but if you look at the Phillies, their Core guys were drafted by them and now are elite. Thats how you win World Series if you can’t spend the big bucks. Draft better.
I’m suprised we haven’t seen WC here weighing in on this.
Everyone is going through their own persona adjustment process CRD…………. If you’re hoping to see any “light at the end of the tunnel”, you better start digging one……………….
RC is the closest………………… Tony is on a play…………..he looks a lot like Steve McQueen in the Great Escape at this point……………..Mo is playing out he leash thinking maybe he will hang himself soon enough. You should all try evaluating each scenario from the prospective of the coach/player you have in mind……………………..(.hint)……………………Tony knows where he stands with BD……….he is acknowledging it……….that being said, he knows where he stand with AP……..I’m sure that in confidence, BD has told Tony the AP numbers, so that he might be able to evaluate the alternatives………….knowing of course that Tony tells AP/Lozano where they stand…………… solid tactic by BD…………..this eliminates the angry response to any apparent provocations or misunderstandings…………………………….Lozano will make inquires to teams that AP might be interested in……..on the down low………..if he doesn’t find what he is looking for should AP request a trade…………………….. we come back to the present…………… Tony is planning on AP playing a lame duck season………its Tony’s only chance of extending his own career….. he is surrounding AP with players that may be strong enough or have enough balls to withstand the Pujols effect…………….. Berkman (ego) Theriot (playing with idiots in Chicago)…… everyone else has been flight tested……….Craig is history because he can’t…………….Mo is like the German commander, just rubbing his chin and wondering why Tony keeps shaking dirt out of his pants…(Brendan Ryan) …………………………… If the Angels go we likely get Morales………if Boston goes…..we get Gonzales…………. That would be BD’s ideal scenario………a good distraction…..
That’s what I’m watching at this point……….the negotiations are taking place as we speak.
The Benji Molina play is just hanging there……….its about money……nothing else……..I believe the play is Lozano at this point………..nobody is trading good players without an extension………..
The variable is in the White House. BD does not know at this point whether his cronies are going to take it back……..freeing up his gold………..that might well be why he is willing to stall for another year…………….if it breaks his way……..he could meet AP’s demand without breaking a sweat……………. personally…….I think he just wants to show that he can intimidate the Mandingo………. show him the new order……….but hey, that’s just me.
bb — Do you have any extra tinfoil?
Here it is, the clubhouse cancer story we have been waitiing for.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_585b7cf1-1530-5dd0-b307-bc87ed2d7301.html
Appropriately delivered by none other than Joey “The Tool” Strauss.
I’ve beaten this to death but the moves made this off season by Mo appear to me to be the best moves to make to allow Tony to manage like he likes to manage, and be successful doing it. I do believe the Cardinals are in a good spot to contend for the Central Division title with the way the team is set up. Now injuries could cause that opinion to change because of a lack of quality or proven depth but going in this team appears to be capable of being led by Tony to a Division Title.
Now the Brendan trade does not appear to be any kind of upgrade to me. An A ball guy for a all star caliber defender is a lose for me. I’m absolutely positive that the Cardinals could have done better than this deal but didn’t want Brendan to be in any kind of position where he would be able to make the playoffs with an American League team or help a National league team make the playoffs. After dogging Brendan out they weren’t gonna get much for him so every team was probably only willing to part with something similar to what they got. So they could send him where he would not be brought back up in 2011.
I like Blings line of thinking in regards to the trade. Theriot is a downgrade defensively and I’m not sure he would have been an upgrade over a healthy wristed Brendan this year. But Theriot will do a fine job under Tony’s tutelage. But all that being said, Tony was not a fan of Brendan on this team and I have continually stated that imo if Tony is not a fan he can’t make himself get along with you without there being friction. And friction is bad. This was the right move for the TEAM. And I personally wanted Brendan to have a chance to have a little fun playing the game and I believe he will really blossom in a less tense environment. I’m sure there are others that are in a place like Brendan that would benefit from a similar change.
It seems apparent that the Cards have a different view about what they want in terms of clubhouse style/atmosphere than what RCW might favor. RCW talks about fun, the Cards may favor a serious atmosphere.
The Cards put Ryan “in play” with comments about wanting to trade him. They got a hard throwing reliever who had earned a slot on Seattle’s 40 man roster. He’s a long-shot, but has ML arm strength, so could develop.
Its unlikely the Cards turned down more generous offers for Ryan. There was a small surplus of SSes available, so other teams did not have to offer a lot for Ryan.
The Cards have other SSes arising from their minors. Tyler Greene for 2011, Pete Kozma for 2012/13, Ryan Jackson 2013.
In Seattle, Brendan Ryan can compete against another SS signed originally by the Cards, Jack Wilson. For Brendan, what matters is to stick in the majors. He will get a chance to do so in Seattle. The move is good for him. All’s well that end’s well.
RC don’t play Jumbo so the atmosphere is irrelevant to him. I wouldn’t be the fit in kind of guy so it wouldn’t matter what the clubhouse environment was like….to me. I would be like Albert. I would do my thing and to worry about doing my job to the best of my abilities. To hell with what anyone else thought. But thats just me.
The guys who try to change to fit in are the ones who end up struggling……….unfortunately
The Cards may favor a more serious atmosphere? Ya think.
But I do agree……this move is good for Brendan.
Brian’s roster matrix is scary. Check out that infield depth chomping at the bit.
As folks may already know, the roster matrix reflects the levels at which players ended last season. Memphis looks especially barren due to the combination of callups and departure of minor league free agents. The Springfield group (Garcia, Kozma, Carpenter, Brown) is going to need to be ready to step up and the annual Ruben Gotay-type NRI signings are likely ahead as well. The return of Jose Martinez will be an interesting story to watch this spring.
The question of major league readiness of those currently targeted for Memphis is a fair one.
CRDSWMN-do you think Strauss made all that stuff up? You do realize this stuff has been rumbling around for a while.
BW—Our problem is that you never get my point. It is probably best since you would get your back up over it any way.
Brendan handled his trade quite well and said he has no hard feelings.Even said TLR talked to him.I wish him luck in Seattle.
That Strauss article crdswmn likes so much says TLR invited Brendan to come visit him later this winter at his home in the East Bay.
TLR is gonna be nice to Brendan. Brendan loved the Cardinals and really tried to please Tony. But unfortunately was incapable of doing so. Brendan loved the Cardinals enough to know better than to say anything negative about them or anybody associated with the Cardinals. Nobody would benefit from saying anything bad about anyone at this point.
Colby said he spoke with Brendan yesterday about the trade. I can only guess as to how the conversation went. But I have a guess that somewhere in the conversation Brendan reached deep down into the deepest parts of his soul and blurted out something Brother King said years ago.
“Free at last! free at last! thank God Almighty, I am free at last!”
RCW- let`s see how Brendan does in Seattle while being free at last.I think he will be lost even more in a different environment
I have no doubt you think that and I’m sure doing all of your conversations with Brendan, you developed that opinion.
And while your opinion is based on what you read in the paper or on the internet, mine is based on coaching many many different types of kids over the years. So you’ll forgive me for not just falling over sideways in agreement with you. Although we can only wait and see how it goes.
I actually stated 2 years ago that this was gonna happen because you see, I have been that hard, no fun type of coach for a while(Colby actually made the comment in the paper that me and TLR were identical in every way) and had dealings with players like Brendan where I forced them to act like me, which was a stoic, emotionless, business professional dressed in a baseball uniform. Me forcing them to change their personality to adapt to my philosophy only made them worse players. So I changed my approach and since have been able to, I would say nurture that talent while not squashing their individualism.
I look back and feel guilty as heck for ruining some of those kids who were great players but I broke them trying to make them conform to my idea of being the most classy baseball player ever made. It was something I can’t ever fix or take back and its a painful thing to know you quite possibly kept someone from living out their dream by being a rigid prick.
So I knew this was coming because I used to be just like Tony and I wouldn’t have put up with Brendan either back in 2005. But since then I have learned to be able to deal with these newer players who you have to be a little more flexible in your approach with.
RCW- I drew my opinions from what i read many times over the years.Just like EVERYBODY ELSE.Then we all don`t have the access that you do.Last i heard havinfg a opinion wasn`t against the law.So you think a younger manager will work better when TLR retires to deal with the younger players?
It used to be the coaches way or the highway.Nowdays the inmates run the asylum in some cases.Whatever the case .Brendan is gone.no matter who wanted it……………………
Surely everybody’s opinion carries equal weight in my eyes. I’m not trying to convince you to believe what I believe by any stretch only telling you how and why I came to the conclusions that I did. But obviously everybody else doesn’t include me because I rarely believe any of the mess that is written by media types because most of it is made up BS.
I believe that Torre and Pinella both referenced that their methodology in managing was going the way of the dinosaur. Pinella even referenced that Quade had dealings with the younger players and that was why he was successful when he took over for Lou.
I also watched some football shows this weekend and listened to the talk about how the NFL coaches are gonna have to change how they approach the players of today. They will not be able to do it like they have been doing it. This was in reference to the Vince Young and Albert Haynesworth problems that have arisen this year.
I don’t believe a younger manager has anything to do with it but a manager that understands that he has to continue to learn and grow as a manager would be a person who would have success. One that has the approach of my way or the highway will be destined to fail. Being able to adapt to differing personality types would be a super good asset imo.
Well nobody goes to a baseball game to watch a manager manage BW.
And Brendan is gone. You are exactly correct.
RCW-Could part of the problem be that some of these players think they are above the rules.It looks to me like there is too much “lok at me” crap in sports.Too many spastic dances after a sack…………..too many tripleflipflop dippydo dunks when a simple layup will do.Too much bat flipping (albert are you lreading)…………………too much assclown actions.
The NBA is a joke.the NFL fines guys for so-called dirty hits and then uses them in highlights and promos yet the league simply fines assclowns for pulling a sharpie or a cellphone out after scoring a TD.Too many damn earrings,tattos and gold chains.Thats my semi-old guy rant.Now back to our regular programming.
BW, I don’t believe you are far off. The games used to be about the games, winning and losing. Now they are about putting on a show. The better the show the more likely you will find yourself on playstation doing your sack dance, or throwing your chalk into the air before the basketball is tossed up, or hitting a bomb and watching it for a bit and then flipping the bat.
Sports have gone hollywood and the players know it. They make ridiculous amounts of money and they are celebrities.
Good dialog fellas…………. the shape of the individual has changed………at one time it was about personal growth and character displayed………….. the roll models are gone………. tiger woods? Kobe Bryant? A-Rod?…………. The new coach must be a master of some sort of collective hypnosis……….one that guards against exposing the individual from the icon………hard work me thinks.
Baseball is a tough gig. If it helps a player’s morale to think he is “free”, good. Yet the tough reality is you have to produce, whether you feel free or unfree, fun or unfun, happy or unhappy.
Like I said earlier Jumbo, this coming from somebody who most likely learned everything they know about baseball from reading about it or watching it on TV.
RC-being a bit harsh on Strauss aren`t you? Do you think he fabricated everything in the story? Or is it just a dislike for the writer of the article?
I’m talking about Jumbo, not Strauss. I like Joe and I believe Joe reported the information he was given. And no I don’t dislike Strauss, quite the contrary. I receive a text from him 5 to 10 times a week.
Disagree with what Joe Strauss wrote? Fine. You’re free to say why you think so, but let’s not turn this into a bashing session on the individual. (not directing this to one poster, but making a general request)
I may very well disagree with what Joe wrote, but Joe didn’t make that stuff up. He is reporting what his sources told him. Thats all he can do. You report what they tell you.
The veterans…………watching the socks go up and down……..the mustache spinning, on and off…..the goofy superstitions at the plate………………and all the other personal anomalies that Brendan needed to express and maintain his illusion of individuality…..was put to rest…..let it. It wasn’t about baseball………….Tony is trying to find a dwelling for the growing AP image, he is chiseling it out of flesh and bone………………or TLR”s career is over….. he is showing Albert that he is in command………….or trying anyway………….
Patton
No Joe did not make that stuff up you’re right. And he reports it very well.
An outsider, Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated, weighs in on the Ryan deal and what it means to him.
Smart guy.
A very good read Brian……………….. Tony isn’t stupid though. I’ve gained some new insights. Tony is trying to keep Albert here………because BD’s offer won’t………his only chance is to win with AP being a major contributor………… this is his escape plan……………..Berkman just in case AP walked.
Advantage BD all the way…………unless the division collapses under a barrage of Cardinal moxie…………….not impossible…………… all of the rhetoric surrounding the obvious folly of these decisions is just that…………. the scapegoat is biting back, and kicking at it too……..his assistants are secured………..it will be his death struggle……….good entertainment,,,,,,,,,,,, smart to stay out of trouble young CR………… don’t try to make organization sense out of it…….it isn’t about baseball.
Tony, above all others knows AP ‘s many vulnerabilities………. the sugar talk last week wasn’t for the press or fans……..it was for AP……who Tony knows has a sweet tooth………remember Tony’s attempt a shielding him at the Rally……..Tony loves him.
Molina would be a key acquisition………..he is being held up for that very reason………big brother shepherding Yadi is one less drain on his big weakness………….players exploiting their personal relationship with him………….. BD is playing to win………. Tony is clearing tunnel…………..
I’m betting that is the general consensus in the world today.
Me too.
Me three.
It does seem to be the consensus on TCNB… I’m an outlier…
“Manager Tony La Russa had strong views about fixing the problems and GM John Mozeliak acted on them.”
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/article_c2fd8884-06cc-11e0-bd33-0017a4a78c22.html
Even when Gordon is Jumbo-ing the Cardinals………..he never forgets to do his work………
All they have to do is get to 2 million, and they get a very important player in BM. and they won’t…
Tony’s reassurance of the behavioral requirements of the back up catcher weren’t for Benji……..they were to reassure baby Yadi……….
Normally Tony goes public here………..he can’t because of the limitation in his own tactic…..
They will end up with some yokel that will trash the number 5 in their rotation…………
That isn’t necessarily Lohse…….
Strauss’ article seemed fair. Gordon swung the clubhouse cancer stick with a bit more force. I’m sure that the Cardinals will all perform better on the field now that that Brendan Ryan guy isn’t around to annoy them. *sigh*
From the SI article linked above.
“And we really may be getting to the point where Tony La Russa’s year-to-year decision to manage or retire is badly and visibly hurting the Cardinals. Because it does not feel like that Cardinals are building a team as much as it feels like they are trying to cobble together one more winner for Tony La Russa.”
Winning is winning. I don’t care if its built or cobbled, just win baby. If RC is right, giving Tony his type of guys might do it. If what the author argues is right, it won’t work. I don’t know. I am afraid that what is going on is Tony doesn’t want to put in the effort to manage anybody, he wants guys that don’t have to be managed so he can spend his time playing around with lineup cards and dreaming about his boy Albert 60 years from now getting ridden around the park in the golf cart to the cheers of adoring fans. The only thing wrong with Brendan is he very badly needed to be managed and it didn’t happen and wasn’t going to happen. Not here. Not this year at least. Colby, I think, has figured out that he needs to grow a pair and take responsibility for himself, and do his own managing. Nobody here is going to do any managing for him.
IMO, on paper, this team could suck a golf ball thru a garden hose, but I’m hoping RC is right and that SI guy is wrong. Like I said, a cobbled winner is a winner. A built loser is a loser.
Only time will tell bling.
BB, RC will tell you, sometimes you can’t manage a hypersensitive individual……….. Tony never chose BR as his SS………… He inherited it and hit 300……….. Brendan acting out his personal frustrations in a competitive setting was creating problems. Tony couldn’t help him. At this level, sometimes you can’t do therapy that should have happened in A ball………………….. The real problem……..he sees AP get away with it, so thinks that’s a privilege extended to all………oops! As I have said, he was sacrificed to attract something. I don’t have a problem with that move. Yet. This sudden burst of powerful focus might make Theriot a player. Take a drink on that one for me….it was hard to say.
Theriot will make the routine plays and take good at bats. He will not distract the big stars. I agree that could be enough. A couple years from now, I doubt I’ll remember anything he did.
I’ve been thinking about that SI article. The argument is a good one. But it also supports a somewhat different conclusion just as well. When you think about it, that sentence about cobbling one last winner for Tony could just as well read like this:
“. . . it does not feel like that Cardinals are building a team as much as it feels like they are trying to cobble together one more winner for Tony and Albert.”
I profoundly hope that we are not seeing a last desperate attempt to make something of a lame duck year for the Tony/Albert era. That makes more sense though, than cobbling together a winning attempt for Tony, with little provision for the team that would accompany the highest paid player in baseball going forward. If that player would even consider going forward under those circumstances. Tony may be looking at 2011, but Albert is looking at 2012. Think about what he is seeing.
Times are changing BB……..the price of developing talent and maintain successful players in this system has changed baseball…….. If the Rays could afford to keep the talent they’ve developed, look how strong they would be…………………or not…….. always developing and evaluating new players makes them good at it……….. Florida the same way….even Pittsburgh…..
Look what the Giants won with…………but they gambled……..and mixed……and paid. We won’t even spend an extra million on a guy that could change everything……….BM…………why, because it might change everything………..BD only know what it costs…………and what the likely outcome of his decisions might be.
Ran across this interesting 2009 P-D article about the good Brendan.
A 2009 article still up on the P-D site?
Brendan didn’t handle success very well. Probably starting last winter. Most likely he didn’t make positive use of his MM sessions, and most likely didn’t handle the wrist injury situation very well. Those things would have been the start of the slipery slope. This whole debacle and the change of scenery might snap him out of it.
I’m sure it will. Too bad the Cardinals won’t receive the benefit of it.
Winning makes you a good person. Got it.
Brendan got here a year too soon…………….. and under the wrong circumstances…….it hurt him… he will entertain in Seattle, and with a little luck, start a successful career. Lets embrace the change for whatever its worth. Don’t forget what happens if both Tony and AP loose out…………..you will officially become mid-market…………..it is the likely outcome of all this posturing………..unless…someone goes wild and trips up the ownership………..
http://www.kfns.com/joesportsfanblog/Story.aspx?ID=1326223
Pretty funny write up about the Brendan trade.
Loved it.
Oh boy………… Tony must be appealing to AP’s sympathies…………how much more can he take in his name……… as soon as the stoning stops……..they will be lighting a tire.
Holy Moly. Cliff Lee is going back to Philly.
Might have set the world record for money left on the table.
I’m sure WC will tell us how this affects the AP negotiations.
Well Lance Berkman took less money to sign here.
6 years 138 MM. Less than what the Yankees offered. Guess he didn’t like the AL.
As this winter goes on, the Holliday contract seems like more and more of a bargain.
I don’t know if Cliff has anything against the AL, but I’ve been to the Bronx, the whole place smells like a urinal.
Phils are becoming the NL version of the Yankees.
My boy Ruben has just locked up the National League Pennant.
Wow what a rotation!!!
Probably a good idea for the Philistines to wait and see how things turn out before they order their 2011 World Series rings.
Read a day or two ago that J-Roll had ‘minor’ wrist surgery, but expects to be ready for the season. Where have I heard that before? (Brendand, DeRosa come to mind).
Heyman just tweeted the Cards signed Laird.
Phillie’s have a good team………..he regretted not being asked to stay………… I wish it weren’t so for a number of reasons……….besides being in a better position to kick our ass…. they must trade Blanton now…………………………. playing to win………whats with them………… the only way this effects AP is it creates desperation in their division………. Atlanta and NY sometimes spend loads of money…………
Lets start honk the horn for Bengie……….if he doesn’t fit our budget…….we don’t need him………………..that’s ass-9999999999……………..hope Dave speaks up………
Phillies are playing to win now when they have all of the talent. The cards have also surrounded Albert with a bunch of studs.
With Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels headlining their rotation, the rest of the NL had better hope for injuries. How else could they stand up to these guys?
On paper its definitely a huge obstacle.
I don’t know…….anything can happen in baseball. Nobody expected the Giants to win the WS.
and we tke laird?????????? GGGGGGGGGG I hope that works out.
Laird hit .207 in 2010. Geez Louise we could have kept Brendan and made him the backup catcher.
Well they said they wanted a little more offense out of the catchers spot this year.
He can’t hit……….but he’s a better brawler than LaRue it looks like.
http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/12/gerald-laird-arrested/
Lets hope he is.
If the numbers on Laird are 2 million or more……….. ??????? Boras knows whats happening here……
I’m curious at this point……………Laird has a gun behind the plate……but is a below average receiver.
That does not meet any of the advertised criteria………including Club house Chemistry……….
Phillies payroll around the 170 million mark even after trading Blanton ( 8.5 million) to the Boston Bastids..Hamels only guy under 30 earning big bucks.Everybody else 30 or older.
Gotta try to win now while you still have a little horsepower under the hood. The Phils are doing so.
I bet Albert is jealous.
What you think BW?
Depends on if Albert is smart enough to realize Cards don`t have Phillies resources.I think he is.Don`t you think he understands what a budget is?
If winning is your main goal why do you care if the team you are on has budget restaints? When in the end those budget restraints don’t restrain Albert.
Sure he does but why would you sacrifice your last few good years with an ok team if you wanted to win?
When you could go to any team you wanted to and actually could guarantee that the team you were on would be compete for a World Championship every year.
RCW- if Albert is unhappy all he has to do is say i want X amount of dollars above what the Cards are offering.Then he can find out for himself next offseason.If he`s leaves so be it.
I believe you are fixing to find out if Albert is about winning or he’s about the history of the game BW. If he stays it shows you he wants to be thought of like a Stan Musial and the rest of the legends that have called St. Louis home. If he leaves it means he wants to win Championships.
I say he stays.
RCW- Agree.He stays.