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Could a new Cardinals MV3 appear in 2011?

How does the current middle of the St. Louis Cardinals lineup compare to their 2004 predecessors?

With the addition of free agent Lance Berkman, the St. Louis Cardinals will have a formidable middle of the order. Manager Tony La Russa has the former Houston star penciled into the fifth spot in his 2011 lineup behind incumbent all-stars Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

Memories return to the 2004 season, a time when the club had three offensive heroes, a trio that performed so well that they may have canceled each other out in the National League Most Valuable Player voting – yet still finished 3-4-5. Pujols, then 24 years of age, was joined by Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds.

It was the last time a noteworthy label stuck to the offense, as the three were called the “MV3.”

Could the new group justify the return of the moniker or perhaps earn a new tag of their own? Of course that remains to be seen on the field in 2011, but based on career numbers, the idea is not crazy.

A long-time member of Houston’s “Killer B’s,” Berkman will be one year older next season than Edmonds was in 2004, 34. That season, Rolen was 29, two years younger than Holliday will be in 2011. Obviously, the constant is Pujols, with six more stellar years of performance logged since 2004, including three MVPs of his own.

Putting Albert aside, let’s look at how the two pairs stack up using career accomplishments through 2004 and 2010 as a comparison. The Triple Crown categories of batting average, home runs and RBI along with Gold Gloves as a defensive indicator follow. The first three measures especially are often cited in MVP-worthiness comparisons.

2004 MV3 Pujols Rolen Edmonds Rolen+Edmonds
NL MVP rank 3 4 5
Age 24 29 34
# .300 years 4 1 5 6
# 30 HR yrs 4 3 5 8
# 100 RBI yrs 4 5 4 9
# Gold Gloves 0 6 7 13
2011 MV3? Pujols Holliday Berkman Holliday+Berkman
Age 31 31 35
# .300 years 10 7 4 11
# 30 HR yrs 10 2 5 7
# 100 RBI yrs 10 4 6 10
# Gold Gloves 2 0 0 0

Batting average. Led by Holliday’s seven years with a .300 or higher average, the 2011 pair has substantially more such seasons than did Pujols’ 2004 cohorts at the time.

Home runs. This is a very close category, with the 2004 duo holding a slight eight seasons to seven edge.

RBI. Berkman’s six 100-plus RBI years puts the 2011 pair barely ahead, ten to nine.

Gold Gloves: This is a blowout. Neither Holliday nor Berkman own a single fielding excellence award, while Rolen and Edmonds already had 13 Gold Gloves between them by 2004.

Of course, the past is just that. It remains to be seen if Berkman can return to his previous level of offensive prowess while dealing with the demands of returning to full-time outfield duty.

For a rebirth of the “MV3” to follow, it would be required as the 2011 Cardinals clearly need this group to hit.

Poll: Other than the 2004 MV3, which pair did/will best complement Pujols?

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59 Responses to “Could a new Cardinals MV3 appear in 2011?”

  1. easton714 says:

    Our 3-4-5 was pretty good last year, too. That was pretty much the only part of our lineup that was good but it WAS pretty darn good.

    Is Pujols-Holliday-Berkman really likely to be better than Pujols-Holliday-Rasmus?

    Regardless, Berkman-Pujols-Holliday-Rasmus (in that order) should be pretty studly.

    • Brian Walton says:

      easton, that seems to mean you think TLR will be changing his mind about batting Berkman fifth, correct?

      • easton714 says:

        It means I hope he does.

        • Nutlaw says:

          I’m with you, Easton. Especially if they stubbornly refuse to hide Berkman against left handed pitching, Rasmus will outperform him by a mile.

          • RCWarrior says:

            You guys got some high expectations for young Rasmus Nut. If he is outperforming Berkman the team may be in trouble.

            • Nutlaw says:

              No, I don’t think so. Rasmus was already much better last year, given that he had a .859 OPS and Berkman had a .781 OPS. One is on his way up, the other down.

            • blingboy says:

              RC, Lance can hit but he can’t field much and can’t run. Colby can do all three. Colby is an up and comer and its likely he will improve from last year. IMO, if he doesn’t outperform Berkman, that’s when the team is in trouble.

              Hitting to left can mean different things I guess. To me it means one hoppers off the wall in the gap. Give me that and a .365 OBP. That’s what TLR and MM are looking for I bet. That guy would come in handy in a lineup with Albert, Matt and Lance.

              • RCWarrior says:

                Bling, I’m optimistic that Lance will be in the best shape of his career this year. Like I wrote above, I think you will see a Lance Berkman that is in the best shape of his life. He knows he will need to be strong and durable so I’m guessing he will prepare for that very thing.

                I would argue about who’s more important. Do you believe Tony will move Lance out of the 5 hole? For any reason? IMO Lance would have to be injured in order to find himself on the pine. So I believe Lance is gonna be in the 5 hold come hell or high water therefore his importance to the team is gonna be vital.

                I’m not concerned with one hoppers off the fence as much as I am concerned about the K’s. I know Easton doesn’t worry about the high K totals but I believe it is a sore spot that needs to be addressed.

                • blingboy says:

                  If all are healthy, Lance will be fifth, I agree. I also agree he will show up fit, he’s a hard worker I think, like Albert.

                  I agree with you about the Ks. He needs to put the ball in play, not give away at bats. We all saw some of those ABs last year when he was in a funk. Tony wants to see him fighting up there, make them make a play. But even though I’ve never spoken a single word with Colby, I know damn well he’s not going to be satisfied hitting dinks over short. Same as I know he wouldn’t be caught dead on the beach with a Shirley Temple.

    • HBTexas says:

      Did a little research on Colby’s HR/RBI history last year. He had 23 HR/66 RBI. Six homers in April, one in May, nine in June, one in July, two in August, and 3 in September. He had two multi-homer games, two each on April 21st and Sept. 9th. But what I really wanted to get at was how many of his RBI came in non-HR at bats. The answer? 29 RBI in non-HR at bats and 37 RBI on homers, driving in 14 runners other than himself on HR.

  2. RCWarrior says:

    Easton,

    You would have to admit that if Berkman stays healthy, which I believe he will, the 3-4-5 of Albert-Holliday-Berkman could be devastating.

    You plug Colby too much imo as he was good sometimes but bad others and not nearly consistent enough to be a player in that role. And Freese at 6 to break up the leftys. Colby at 7 is a pretty daunting lineup.

    • easton714 says:

      He was inconsistent, yes, but his overall numbers were very good.

      And I am not sure we’d have to break up Colby and a switch hitter.

      Plus, Colby was significantly better last year than Berkman and one is on the career upswing and one on the downswing. I am not sure why we should assume Berkman would be better than Colby. I sure don’t expect that.

      • RCWarrior says:

        Lance was terrible against LH pitching. That would be a setup for a loogy to come in a kill two birds with one stone. Better to break them up imo.

        agree, his numbers as a whole were ok. But if you slice them up by months they weren’t impressive.

        • easton714 says:

          If his overall numbers were just okay then every other center fielder in baseball must suck because Colby had the highest OPS of them all. Number one.

          I know he was very streaky…but that doesn’t mean his overall numbers weren’t damn good.

  3. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Not trying to dampen the Berkman party here………………. if…… Sir Lancelot does survive as an outfielder……..and I’ve had my say there……….. try to imaging the impact that such an effort is going to have on his production at the plate……………… it is not in his “Ruthian” style to be under duress physically for a 9th inning at bat…or a 5thinning AB for that matter…………………………….that is why he was at 1st base……….any team would have chosen to send him into the outfield if it was thought that he might produce from there…….. it is a major factor……………………………… was is considered……….how not……….did it matter……….. no. It has little to do with baseball……………….it is K.Greene all over again………………it is a preseason marketing strategy/ Pujols prop/………

    Some of our accountants might like to examine the some of the “other” reason for “floating” ticket prices.

  4. blingboy says:

    I’ll be stunned if Berkman plays 400 innings in the outfield. Assuming I’m wrong, it could be a magnificent middle of the order. Of course, Albert will have to stay healthy too. Not just healthy enough to be out there, healthy enough to be the best player in baseball. Taking a look at that picture at the top, he’s really packed on weight. Mostly muscle I assume, but its still weight. Will be harder on his legs and back as he goes forward.

    This whole Colby hitting approach thing is, to me, just a sign that he wants to be on the same page as Tony and the guys this year. Last year he was among the best center fielders, but it didn’t translate into winning games when it mattered. Same for everybody else, a lot of ability, a lot of stats, no results. Some guys were not on the same page. Maybe Colby, Brendan, maybe Luddy was sort of a clubhouse go to guy for those guys. Sounds like Colby has decided to try it Tony’s way this year, Brendan too if he sticks. Colby’s not going to be up there hitting like a girl, but he will be trying to do what it takes. Hopefully it will work out.

    • RCWarrior says:

      I’ll be honest, I’m not a fan of him not packing on the muscle and I’m betting thats going to change fairly quick. 0% supportive on the fitness stuff. I’ve got an idea he may be eating steaks every day once or twice and drinking about 4 or 5 weight gain shakes if the truth be known.

      I love the change in approach at the plate. 100% supportive of that move. There’s a lot of hits in left field.

  5. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    BB…….there is a correlation between the success this team did enjoy last year……….and the health of the rotations…………… if the rotation stays healthy, it pulls us into the playoffs. As it was, the heavy workload exacerbated by low run support, put some heavy mileage on the front “horses” that tried to finish the trip……………………. off season helps, but its doesn’t do much for “shoulder and “elbow” wear and tear which career wise tends to accumulated like “car wear”……………

    the Berkman move………less help at short……. no support in the outfield………… and that’s if they’re healthy………….giving us early leads and opportunities to throw more fastballs……less breaking pitch wear and tear?…………………. If Berkman gets hurt…………its no real loss……….we are back to last years team………..which was a loser. Pagnozzi was a big loss for this club, looking at what they might get……..that’s another strike against the rotation.

    The risks being taken will break this team down…….. one way or the other. I doubt you will see the shiny pony’s at ST this year…………..the independent happy faced boys club is under duress…………………. and I see know relief as it stands. ……………… and please, the Yadi likes to catch allot………and limp allot…… or the Pujols everyday martyrdom may be comfortable to them……as a buffer against accountability…….but it is very corrosive to team interests…………

    be honest………..the best demonstration of why you can’t pay AP “American Free Market Fantasy lotto money…….in the Midwest” is just to let this team fail………….period……. and the risks suggest that this was evaluated…………..

  6. CariocaCardinal says:

    This team has composed has lots of glaring problems. The lack of Pagnozzi isn’t one of them.

    • HBTexas says:

      CC — I’d say the team has some issues and question marks, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them glaring problems. The biggest of the issues I see are these, in order of importance:

      1. Health of David Freese.
      2. Lance Berkman’s knees.
      3. Effectiveness of Brian Tallet.
      4. Inexperienced bench, lack of depth in 3A.

      The team has strong pitching. Even with injuries to 40% of the rotation last year, they ranked 4th best in the NL in team ERA… based on strong showings by Waino, Carp & Jaime. Jake for a full year should be an improvement over Penny, Suppan and Hawksworth… and while Lohse remains a bit of a question, he’s going to be healthy for the first time since early 2009. As a #5, he doesn’t have to be Roy Halladay. Few #5′s are anything more than mediocre, but if he can get near his 2008 effectiveness, he has huge upside. Lohse could be the biggest & best pleasant surprise of the year.

      The relief corps is also strong. Lots of folks dislike Franklin because he doesn’t throw 100 mph and strike everybody out. But the bottom line is that over the last two years he’s been one of the most effective closers in baseball. KMac is also a sold veteran. Motte made huge strides last year and I hope that continues. Salas showed well enough in limited time. On the left side, Miller has been a solid contributor. Tallet is a TBD, but if he works out the left side is solid also, if not spectacular. I don’t see a clear long-man here… that’s an exposure.

      The lineup we’ve been discussing has potential to score lotsa runs. Theriot’s a clear upgrade over Ryan on offense, as is a healthy Berkman over Ludwick, IMO. Albert & Matt are two of the best in the business. Colby is a promising young player. Yadi a clutch RBI guy and the best defensive catcher in the game. Freese was strong on both side of the ball last year after some early defensive jitters. Skip, for all the abuse he takes here, is a solid hitter and at least adequate on defense. The key questions here are the health of Freese/Berkman.

      There’s been a lot of negative commentary about how the additions of Theriot/Berkman weaken the defense. Obviously, there’s some truth to that. But I’ve got the feeling that both are going to be better than either gets credit for now. On defense, you can win without the spectacular Web-Gem-type play. You just need to consistently make plays you’re supposed to make. Anything above that is gravy. Certainly, Theriot is a capable SS. We’ll see about Berk in RF, but I don’t recall him being an embarrasment when he played OF for the Astros. He needs to be adequate, stay healthy, and hit like we know he can.

      The bench projects to be a bit weak as currently constituted, with more young players than one normally finds on a contending team. Jay and Craig gained valuable experience last year that should help them in 2011. I assume Tyler Greene will make the team, and I’m not a big fan of Tylers. If Ryan isn’t traded, he’s a bench guy too, a very strong defensive option and a guy who can pinch run, steal bases, and spot start. Backup catcher is TBD, but doesn’t need to be an All-Star either. The more I think about Bengie Molina, the better I like that idea… if we can get him.

      Significant injuries complicate things significantly. No team goes all year without something and I doubt the 2011 Cards will be an exception. As long as we don’t get the 1-2 punches we got last year with Penny-Lohse and Ludwick-Freese, we should be able to weather any short-term storms.

      That’s my take. What do you see that gives you concerns?

      • crdswmn says:

        {raises hand excitedly!} I have a problem with the Skip is adequate part. :)

        The defense is my biggest concern. I don’t have the confidence that Theriot can handle the pressure from our ground ball pitching staff. Berkman in the OF is a concern but not as much.

        Sorry CC, didn’t mean to steal your thunder, but me and HB….well you know. :)

        • HBTexas says:

          [Teacher sees hand in air, tries to ignore it, but finally gives in to behavior like that Horshack fellow on Welcome Back Mr. Kotter] :)

          Knew you would, but I think my assessment is fair. Also think you are going to be pleasantly surprised at the play of Mr. Theriot.

          Trouble getting anything of value in return for Brendan makes it more likely he will be on the team next year. That should make you happy. He’ll get to do that late-inning defensive thing and play SS on days the Cards face a lefty. Playing time will depend on his bat. Competition is not a bad thing, for all involved.

          Orioles signed Caesar Izturis today as a backup to JJ Hardy, on a $1.5M one-year deal. They could have had Brendan for half that. Tells me the league doesn’t place the value on him that many in these parts do.

          Best part about being a bench guy, he and TLR will get to spend a lot of quality time together in the dugout. ;)

      • CariocaCardinal says:

        Let’s just say a team with a $100 million payroll shouldn’t be so thin and have such weak defense.

        I guess if everyone stays healthy we could be OK but the problem last year was lack of depth and I see us as no better and possibly worse off in that regard than we started last year. It seems we learned nothing last year.

        I guess it will only get worse in this regard if we start paying one player $28 million a year.

        • HBTexas says:

          CC — I’m with you on the depth thing. My finger is pointed straight at Jeff Luhnow and the farm system’s failure to develop impact players. Just two, IMO, have come off the farm since Mr. SABR took over the draft… Colby and Jaime. The rest, pretty much complimentary pieces and role players and not even enough of those. Every significant upgrade to the team so far has come from outside… trade/signing of Westbrook, trade for Theriot, and free agents Berkman and Tallet. That’s not a cost-effective way to run a team. Luhnow was tasked with helping the team avoid that state of affairs, and in my view, he’s not getting it done.

          • Milnertime says:

            You really think it’s the scouting director’s fault the team hasn’t had any prospects come up?

            Because the real culprit behind the lack of farm system contributions is Mozeliak, as he’s the one who traded almost every interesting piece not named Shelby Miller, away.

            • HBTexas says:

              Milner — Luhnow is not the scouting director. His official title is VP of Amateur Scouting and Player Development. He’s been running the draft/scouting operations since 2005 and took over the farm system in 2007. He was supposedly demoted, losing control of minor league operations near the end of the season, but he retains titular control. He’s the guy who drafts and develops talent. So yes… I think this is where the fickle finger should be pointed.

              Luhnow reports to Mozielak on paper, but truth is, he really reports to Mr. DeWitt, who put the future of the club in his hands in 2007. This guy had no baseball background whatever before 2003, except playing fantasy baseball. He’s a businessman and a consultant and his calling card was leading the Cards to the promised land of unlimited cheap talent from the farm using modern statistical analysis. How’s he doing?

              When Jocketty objected to his elevation in the organization, he was fired. You think Mozeliak wants to repeat that experiment?

              Trades from the farm have been very limited… Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Mortensen for Holliday; Chris Perez and Jess Todd for DeRosa; Luke Gregerson and Mark Worrell for Khalil Greene. That’s pretty much it except for the A ball pitcher, Carpenter, who went to the Astros for Pedro Feliz. See any impact players in there? Gregerson is a solid RH set up man. They’re not hard to come by. Perez is the closer for one of the worst teams in the AL. Wallace will get a chance to play 1B for the Astros, didn’t hit so well for them at the end of last year. Peterson’s in A ball in Texas. Morty, Worrell and Todd are still in 3A.

              We got good value with Holliday… bad luck with DeRosa getting hurt three days after we got him. Failure in scouting on Khalil, who flaked out.

              • Milnertime says:

                I’m not going to lie, I didn’t realize his background.

                If I were you, I wouldn’t blame this on advanced statistical analysis and more on just the guy trying to use that analysis.

                Sabermetrics aren’t the culprit, here. Poor decision making is on the part of the front office in hiring a guy with no baseball background. I also don’t think Mozeliak is doing a very good job. Theriot is a pretty awful trade, IMO, and paying the max for Holliday after giving up those top prospects when he was the only one in the running will come back to haunt him, I think.

                • HBTexas says:

                  Milner — I’d recommend highly two interviews Brian did in 2004 with Luhnow and Mozeliak. I found both immensely interesting and informative. He’s got them archived here somewhere. I initially found them doing a Google search. They’re what led me to this site.

                  Agree in general that SABR isn’t the sole culprit… but modern numerical analysis without a solid baseball background is apparently insufficient. I’m skeptical about some things SABR but not an outright rejectionist. One thing I value about this site is rubbing elbows with folks who are more familiar with it that I am… and the opportunity to learn more about it.

                  The guy who championed Luhnow was Bill DeWitt Jr, the chairman/owner. Can’t lay that one on Jocketty or Mozeliak. I see Mo as an intermediary figure between two competing schools of thought. Old-school baseball types headed up by TLR/Dunc and the SABR folks in the FO and MiLB under Luhnow. Mozeliak hasn’t tilted too far in either direction, but seems to be trying to keep everybody happy and producing.

                  Looks like Mr. DeWitt has set up competing elements in the organization… something lots of big-time corporate managers do. The idea is to create a constructive tension & chaos, but it can also blow up at times. Mo’s job is to hold it all together… not an easy task.

                  I liked the Holliday trade when it happened and still like it. Compared to the deals handed out for lesser talent this year… it looks very good. And Matt is only the 3rd highest paid LF in the NL Central, behind Sorry-I-Know and Carlos Lee. I like the Theriot trade in theory, but we all need to see it applied before making a judgment. No sense saying it’s awful before we even see it in practice. It could be awful, it could be genius… too early to tell.

                  • Brian Walton says:

                    While I have interviewed both gentlemen a number of times over the years, the early Luhnow one you mention could be from February 2004. Everything was free at that point as we hadn’t yet moved to Scout.com and became commercialized. Most folks preferred it when I worked for free. ;-)

                    Anyway, here is the link to the fourth part of the four-part Luhnow interview. Links to parts one through three are at the top of that page.

                    • Brian Walton says:

                      This is the link to a Mozeliak interview series I did in 2004. He was AGM and Director of Scouting Ops at the time.

                      This page has links to three years of all of the site interviews in one place (2004-06) including some of the pre-Scout ones. Those with the tiny “in” symbol are subscriber-only.

            • RCWarrior says:

              At the spot the cardinals draft they need to be taking more gambles on high upside guys.

          • CariocaCardinal says:

            Well, I consider it more poor payroll management. Greene/Descalso will give us as much as Theroit in my opinion. His money could have brought us Scherril and a strong backup catcher. While Berkman is good, I think his money could have been better spent on someone who has a reasonable expectation of being health and playing good defense, like….Ludwick!

            I dont think you can overlook and ignore the players that Luhnow drafted and we traded.

            • HBTexas says:

              CC — For the players Luhnow drafted that we traded… see above. Nothing impact at this point, though that could change with time. I’d rather have Holliday than Wallace, Morty and Peterson combined. Gregerson has had success, but we’re not short on RH set-up men. Didn’t like Perez when we had him. We’ll see how he does with the Tribe in a bigger role.

              Don’t agree with you on Greene at all, Descalso… maybe. Haven’t seen enough to get a good read. Theriot is a vet who’s done the job at the MLB level on division-winning teams. Can’t say that for Greene or Dirty Dan… they would be huge gambles. Think we’ll still get a strong backup catcher, maybe Bengie, and I’m not ready to throw Tallett under the bus until I see him work. He looks like a promising LOOGY on paper.

              I also was in the Ludwick fan club. Berkman is a worthy replacement offensively if he bounces back, and I expect he will. Been too good for too long not to. But he can’t touch Luds on D…

              • Milnertime says:

                In reference to Gregerson…

                They may not be lacking in RH set up men, but they are lacking in really good RH set up men.

                Gregerson in the bullpen would also let McClellan have a go at starting if the Cardinals so chose/needed.

            • HBTexas says:

              CC — Are you really in Brazil? If so, ever heard of Americana, in São Paulo?

              • CariocaCardinal says:

                Not there at the moment but going back in a few days (spend most of my time in Brazil0. Yes, I am familiar with the city of Americana. Even passed through there once a few years ago but didn’t stop.

                • HBTexas says:

                  Americana area has an interesting history… settled by southerners who left the US after the Civil War.

                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederados

                  A famous Texan, Col. Peter Hardeman, is buried in the Campo cemetery near Americana & Santa Bárbara d’Oeste. He led various Texas Cavalry units during the war and his cousin, William Polk Hardeman, was a Confederate general.

                  President Carter visited that cemetery some years ago. One of the people buried there is an ancestor of his wife Rosalyn.

    • RCWarrior says:

      its gonna be hit or miss CC

      • WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

        Pagnozzi is a symbol of the disagreements between Org, and on field activities……..they axed him on the premise that he would be replaced with a more complete player………..not a fall back player.
        B. Molina is just sitting there, Yadi conflict now out of the way………..just grease his palm a little and he keeps little brother in line……….make him take better at bats, and gives him more rest…………so that’s an extra million to really improve this team…….or a third of its salary anyway………… and they are just sitting on it………….because it is an unknown…………meaning it might just work…..and they loose control………… If Ryan makes the team……..he wins the SS job………..if Theriot is a player, he pushes Skip out…………Better there too.

        KGreene came to this team with enough scaring on his arms that he look like an assistant to an alcoholic knife thrower working the saloon circuit……………. but he fit the billing………as long as he wore sleeves………….. fuse lit…………… a happy team…..a happy Yadi……a happy Albert….is going to cost them……..(foolish money)……………. they won’t go there. They must take the initiative…………. or show a reason………….

  7. WestCoastbirdWatcher says:

    Lester Jimenez

    The veteran catcher Bengie Molina has not yet decided whether he will play next season in the majors or, finally decides to retire.

    But to stay active in the majors, his brother Yadier Molina would be more than happy to have him in his dressing room.

    The Cardinals have expressed interest that the greatest Molina, 36, joins the ranks of the ninth as a backup catcher for his little brother.

    But it all depends on whether you want to be active or not.

    “There have been approaches from San Luis to Bengie. They want to bring, but are waiting for Bengie decide what, if he plays or not, “said Yadier Molina to be addressed for the First Time.

    “He is in three and two. Do not know yet. I love to see stay in the family, but the decision is his, “he said.

    In the midst of the playoffs, Bengie confessed that he considered hanging up the spikes at the end of the 2010 season.

    “If he decides to play every day, looking for a good contract with another team and play, because I know I can do yet. But if you think about retirement and wants to be quiet as a backup catcher, then I want you with me, “insisted the younger of the Molinas.

    ————————————————————————————–

  8. HBTexas says:

    Brian — A little feedbackon recent changes to site software. That annoying tab closing failure has gone away! (using Internet Exploder).

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