Looking for clues as to the most likely batting order for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.
A recent Post-Dispatch article touted in detail a number of reasons why new St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman should bat second in manager Tony La Russa’s 2011 order. Perhaps after that article was complete, the skipper mucked up the works by stating his intent to put Berkman in the fifth spot, and as cleanup hitter in the rare occasion that Matt Holliday sits out.
La Russa has repeated the same thoughts in multiple radio interviews since while acknowledging he understands why some think that Berkman’s .400 OBP would also be appealing near the top. Ultimately, he explained his prevailing need is for a hitter behind Holliday to protect him as does Holliday for Albert Pujols.
Though La Russa seems clear about Pujols-Holliday-Berkman at 3-4-5, he hasn’t divulged his entire 2011 order. With the rest being open to speculation, it provides the basis for this article.
One line of thinking is that with the switch-hitting Berkman likely batting from the left side most often, there would be value in following him with a right-handed hitter in the number six spot.
Prior to his untimely injury last season, right-handed hitting David Freese was the regular fifth-place hitter and he also batted sixth and seventh less frequently. If finally healthy and productive, one might see Freese as that right-handed hitting #6 behind Berkman.
If so, where would this leave the man who took over the fifth spot and ended up batting there the most often for the club in 2010, left-handed hitting Colby Rasmus? The centerfielder also appeared in the second and sixth spots at times last season.
During a Tuesday evening KMOX radio interview during which he again explained his preference to hit Berkman fifth, La Russa did not state where Colby will be in his new order, but implied fifth may not be it. The manager said he would have to “see how Colby has progressed,” noting that with the fifth spot comes “a lot of responsibility.”
My bottom third would consist of Yadier Molina, Skip Schumaker and the pitcher, perhaps with the latter two reversed if La Russa feels the need to demonstrate his individuality again this coming season.
That would leave the top two spots for newcomer Ryan Theriot, he of the .348 career on-base mark and the last man standing, Rasmus. Despite Theriot expressing a clear preference to bat second (repeated several times before also mentioning leadoff) during a Tuesday evening KMOX interview, the new shortstop seems the likely first hitter. In the aforementioned interview, Theriot attributed his poor 2010 to being asked to become more of a run producer than a tablesetter, which he said he said he tried, but was neither comfortable nor successful in the role.
As noted in the Post-Dispatch article we started with above and many times over the prior years, La Russa craves “danger” from his number two hitter. My conclusion is the player in that spot will be Rasmus. Can Colby consistently provide that danger in 2011?
In the beauty of symmetry, two right-handed hitters would follow each lefty in this proposed order.
| 1 | Theriot | SS | RHH |
| 2 | Rasmus | CF | LHH |
| 3 | Pujols | 1B | RHH |
| 4 | Holliday | RF | RHH |
| 5 | Berkman | LF | SH |
| 6 | Freese | 3B | RHH |
| 7 | Molina | C | RHH |
| 8 | Schumaker | 2B | LHH |
| 9 | Pitcher | P | RHH (exc Garcia) |
How do you see it?
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Colby in the 2 spot would not be a stellar idea in my mind. I do believe he would have fewer K’s in that spot but would not walk a bit. He would be hacking from the jump. Bad idea.
I really don’t see anyway Skip won’t leadoff against RH pitching. Tony loves him too much. And if Skip leads off then Theriot fits in nicely at 2 imo. Then you have Albert, Holliday, Berkman Freese, and Colby.
Against LH pitching Theriot leading off with Freese at 2 seems plausible. Then Albert, Holliday, Berkman, and maybe Colby.
So against RH pitching.
1. Skip.
2. Theriot.
3. Albert.
4. Holliday.
5. Berkman.
6. Freese.
7. Rasmus.
8. Molina.
9. Pitcher.
LH pitching.
1. Theriot.
2. Freese.
3. Albert.
4. Holliday.
5. Berkman.
6. Colby.
7. Molina.
8. Skip.
9. Pitcher.
RC, I don’t think that anyone would find it reasonable for your son to be batting as low as seventh against RHP with any regularity. Even with Berkman weak against lefties as well, you couldn’t in good conscience hand more plate appearances to Schumaker, Theriot, and Freese.
Brian — This is exactly the lineup I posted the other day, only I was then exploring the idea of batting Berkman 4th and Holliday 5th. I later also saw the P-D piece about TLR’s comments concerning Berk’s spot in the order (5th, or 4th when Holliday is out).
Of course, this is a lineup vs. RHP and there would be many minor variations and a different look vs. LHP, as is TLR’s well traveled modus operandi.
Theriot has speed and is a career .284 singles hitter. With 20 stolen bases/year, that’s 20 of those singles turned into doubles. Moz got him to lead off and play SS, and no need to mess with moving Skip out of the leadoff spot vs. LHP. Theriot leads off, most every day.
Colby in the 2-hole is a nice combination of speed and power. We know TLR likes damage in this slot. Colby isn’t an accomplished base stealer, so no loss having him restrained from stealing bags in front of AP. He showed patience last year and upped his walk total, in fact, had the 3rd best OBP on the team (behind only AP and Holliday). He was also ineffective with RISP, 10th best on the team at .252. These two things together show why Colby should hit high in the order, not low. With Colby on 1B, he scores on an AP double down the line or in the gap. A full year in the 2-hole and young Colby scores 100+ runs. With his improved splits last year, I’d let him face both RH and LH pitching… every day.
Albert, Matt, Lance hit 3-4-5… No need to explain this. Matt protects Albert, and Lance does thes same for Matt. Triple threat… 25+ HR/100 RBI ability all around. A heart of the order to strike fear in the opposition.
Freese bats 6th. He hit .296 last year and had the 3rd highest batting average with RISP on the team in 2010 (.324). He doesn’t/won’t hit many HR, but he is clutch with men on base, and he’ll have lots of opportunity with the 4 highest OBP men on the team hitting in front of him.
Yadi bats 7th. His average was down a bit last year, to .262. But he is clutch in RBI spots, 5th best on the team in 2010 with RISP, at .286.
Skip hits 8th (or 9th, if PHE). He’s a career .292 hitter. How many teams have that kind of average at the bottom? If he hits 9th, it’s the embodiment of TLR’s second leadoff man strategy… a LH (former) leadoff man hitting in front of the new RH leadoff man. And believe it or not… last year Skip’s average with RISP was 4th best on the team at .297. This mans 6-7-8 in the lineup with 3rd-5th-4th hitting with RISP last year.
This lineup scores runs up and down the order. Two fastest guys in front of AP, speed and pop in the 2 hole, Albert, Matt and Lance the personification of high OPS, Freese & Yadi both highly capable RBI guys to clean up behind the boppers, Skip reloads for the top, a secondary leadoff man and RBI capable himself.
This lineup scores runs… lots and lots of runs. And uses the particular skills of each of the components to best advantage.
Facing lefties… I wouldn’t change too much. Berkman can sit, giving him plenty of rest, and it gives Craig an opportunity for regular playing time.
I’d leave 1-4 just the same… Theriot, Colby, Albert, Matt. Move Freese to the 5-hole and put Craig in the 6 hole. Leave Yadi at 7th and substitute the RH 2B/SS platoon option for Skip. This would be Ryan (if he’s not traded) or Tyler Greene.
the order is still a huge question mark 6-8 no matter how you slice it. Freese was in a free fall when he got hurt, so nobody knows how well and how soon he can make adjustments at the ML level. I wouldn’t bet on Tony leading off Theriot because Mo got him to play SS and lead off. If skip has a decent ST he’ll get a shot at being the LO hitter as he has in the past vs RHP. This team needs guys who consistently get on in front of Bert and Holiday because those are the only guys you can currently count on to drive in runs. The rest could be decent or really really bad like last yr. I’d be in favor of Colby batting 2nd if he can take better more consistent AB’s. However I think he’d be better served hitting 5th or 6th.
I think if you can get a .340 and a near .400 OBP guys hitting ahead of Pujols and Holiday, those guys will drive in a TON of runs and we’ll be in great shape. Especially Holiday w/ another high OBP guy in the form of Pujols ahead of him.
I’m really envisioning Berkman to resemble a Brian Giles, the Padre version, more than a big middle of the order bat. I’d kill for a .400 OBP guy ahead of Pujols.
Mike — The freefall didn’t start until after he got hurt, June 5th. He sat out/pinch hit for a week, then tried to play hurt for two more weeks before hitting the DL. Before the the ankle injury on June 5th, he was doing fine.
I’m with you HBT. Put David in that 2 spot and let him go. I believe he will do fine.
RC, unless I am missing something, HB has Colby at #2, not #6. I think you meant Mike.
I guess I should have been clearer in my initial post. The above is not necessarily my favored lineup. It is what I think TLR is implying he will do.
Specifically, regarding Freese, he has a total of 304 plate appearances as a major leaguer. Guess how many of them were from the #2 hole? Precisely zero. Of course that is the past, not the future, but it says plenty to me as to what TLR sees in him.
6 is a fine spot for Colby to hit in. I concur yet again with your thought process. Colby is too inconsistent for the 2 or 5 spots.
RC — I’d be OK with Colby 6th and Freese 2nd vs. LHP, if Colby struggles vs. LHP. Otherwise, I’d put him in the 2 hole, leave him there, and start counting the runs he scores toward and beyond 100.
Both Colby and David had a .361 OBP last year, but Colby had 63 walks and Freese only 21. Even if you double David’s total, scaling for a full year, he’s still well behind Colby in walk totals.
But the main reason I like Colby 2nd and Freese 6th is the difference in their BA w/RISP numbers. Freese 3rd best on the team at .324… Colby 10th best on the team at .252. That’s the determining factor in my mind. Colby is not yet ‘clutch’ and the 2 hole makes better use of his speed.
If Theriot got in a funk, you could flip-flop him with Skip… let Skip hit leadoff and put Theriot in the 8/9 hole. But I prefer Theriot at leadoff and here’s why… his career average is 23 doubles, Skip’s 24. But with his speed and 20 stolen bags/year, Theriot turns 20 singles into doubles. That makes 43 doubles vs. 24… no contest who would be preferable.
If Albert, Matt, Lance, Freese hit 3-4-5-6, batting Colby 7 or lower is a waste of his speed and talent, IMO. That’s why I like him in the 2-hole, along with other stated reasons.
I fear that unless Theriot becomes a better base stealer that La Russa won’t let him run often, HB. Over the past three seasons, he has 63 SB and 32 CS. Statistically speaking, Theriot has neither hurt or helped his team’s chances by his base stealing attempts with approximately a 67% success rate. An extra base two times out of three and an out the third time out of three isn’t really a plus.
Ugh. Tony is being extra obstinate this year. Berkman is the clear choice to bat 2nd. He’s suffered from a power outage last yr and you just don’t know if he’ll hit for anywhere near the power he had in Houston. I do think he could hit for a good average and continue to get on base near .400 which is what this offense is sorely lacking….guys who can get on in front of Bert and Holiday. Keep Rasmus and his manic streaks in the 5th or 6th slots.
I think there is a real chance at seeing a 1-2 of skip and theriot vs RHP. Vs lefties I would be surprised to see Tony’s other pet Molina hitting 6th or 5th if Berkman is rested. Of course Rasmus has the “danger bat” Tony loves in the 2nd spot so who knows what the guy is thinking.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Colby isn’t in a “competition” w/ Jay for the starting spot come ST. Tony loves “competition” at spots he doesn’t have a pet entrenched.
Tony would prefer Jay and has said as much to Colby so your point is valid. I do believe that comment may have brought on the, well then get rid of me then response.
Mo has his optimistic shoes on it would seem. And after that beautiful speech from Albert about getting Colby traded. I’m shocked.
I understand Berkman’s declining results vs. lefties, but if TLR continued to play lesser hitters despite terrible results vs. lefties, which he has done regularly, it seems highly unlikely that an $8 million player in Lance Berkman is going to be platooned. The only hope will be that Berkman is rested now and then to protect his knees and those rest days happen to coincide with an opposing LHP.
I assumed from the beginning they were going to play him daily. I thought he’d be given every chance possible including playing long after its obvious he should sit. I hope he doesn’t need to sit except to keep him fresh.
As I said that, BJ Rains tweeted this from talk with TLR this morning.
La Russa on Berkman: “I think he’s an everyday player against everybody. He can flat hit.”
Dang that TLR guy. He messes up all OUR plans!
The Demon Spawn speaketh:
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_a565b3e6-030c-11e0-87a6-0017a4a78c22.html
Nice Q and A with TLR.Didn`t read anything that seemed like TLR needed horns and a pitchfork.
vs righties
1. Skip
2. Freese
3. Albert/Lance
4. Holliday
5. Rasmus
6. Jay
7. Molina
8.Theriot
9.Pitcher
vs lefties
1. Theriot
2. Freese
3. Albert/Lance
4. Holliday
5. Craig
6. Rasmus
7. Molina
8. Ryan
9, Pitcher
Don’t forget to consider……………….. Berkman has been waiting to be traded for a while. As was pointed out during 2010, all of the Houston players were pressing to put up power numbers to encourage interest. He is a better player than those numbers suggest………even Lohse got him out once if I recall……………….
He takes a “smarter AB the most Cardinal hitters. He will press pitchers more at 4 or 5 than 2. He could kill from 5 and do allot for MH…………… walking in front of AP just pressures AP because its sets up the DP…………….it is absolutely the best tactic for a pitcher to get AP low and away. Why make them play better or encourage them to do the right thing?
Speaking of Lohse, here’s a trivia question: Who played more innings in the outfield the last three seasons, Lohse or Berkman?
Trick question………………………. I wonder how many inning Berkman actually had playing that same role. Probably half…………… He won’t get out of spring training…………..
[...] time, I presented a potential batting order for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals based on the manager’s comments, past behavior and of course, [...]