According to a media report, the Florida Marlins expected Colby Rasmus from the St. Louis Cardinals in return for Dan Uggla.
At times, information regarding professional sports teams is released either directly or indirectly to reinforce a desired point. Now and then, credibility with the intended audience is stretched beyond what seems reasonable, however.
Such appears to be the case with a new rumor involving the St. Louis Cardinals and the Dan Uggla trade. As most know by now, the Florida Marlins second baseman, one year from free agency, was available on the open market this past week.
Numerous clubs were rumored to be interested, with the Atlanta Braves securing Uggla on Tuesday in return for All-Star utilityman Omar Infante and minor league pitcher Mike Dunn.
The St. Louis Cardinals had expressed mild interest, but in reality seemed content all along to keep converted outfielder Skip Schumaker at second base and deploy their resources elsewhere this off-season.
Such was the case when on the same day as the Uggla deal came to pass, the Cardinals announced the re-signing of pitcher Jake Westbrook to a two-year contract with an option for a third season.
Perhaps the Westbrook timing was merely coincidence, but even if so, it took some of the edge off arguments across the Cardinal Nation that had been in favor of adding Uggla instead.
The story seemed to travel a bridge too far on Wednesday when Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss tweeted this.
“Cards inquired on Uggla. Balked when Fish pushed for Raz’.”
While I am not doubting that someone in a position of authority told Strauss this, how could it have been said with a straight face? There seems no reasonable scenario in which this deal would have made sense.
Even if the Marlins initially asked for Colby Rasmus, and who could blame them for at least trying, it strains all rational thinking to believe they would hold to that position when instead quickly dispatching Uggla to a divisional rival for a prospect and a substantially-lesser player in Infante.
Why would the Marlins set the bar so much higher for the Cardinals? In other words, I bet you couldn’t find one person anywhere who would consider Infante and Dunn to be anywhere near the equivalent of Rasmus in value.
Four years of a cost-controlled Rasmus for one year of Uggla? Seriously?
Now, the twitter sheep who apparently can’t think for themselves are falling all over each other lauding the Cardinals brass for resisting the temptation of dealing Rasmus and passing on Uggla.
While signing Westbrook and not acquiring Uggla may prove to be the best moves for the Cardinals, this explanation offered just doesn’t hold water.
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You get to write an article while I get to be abused by Strauss via Twitter for basically saying the same thing. Life isn’t fair
I am not attacking Strauss, but at face value, the rumor as reported doesn’t make sense to me. The hot stove season is always interesting…
fredbird: hey strauss, the marlins wanted rasmus.
Why should anybody believe Joe Strauss anyway? He is just a tool.
I have no doubt that the PR people for the cardinals put this ridiculous mess out there in order to control the masses into believing Uggla was unattainable.
But lets be honest. Who do the Cards have that would be of equivalent value of an Infante and Dunn?
Braves did an excellent job of selling high on Infante who had a creer year in order to get something they dearly needed….a power bat from the RH side.
RC, agree that the Braves made a very nice move and are to be commended. What seems unlikely is that Rasmus is the only player in the entire Cardinals organization that would have interested Florida, however.
I doubt he was Brian. Why would the Cardinals want Uggla when they have Skip? Of course there would have been that little fan outrage thing if it were known the Cards could have gotten Uggla. Enter Okey dokey Joe………
Lord, I hope that isn’t true. It can’t be.
Most definitely Brian. But isn’t it easier to just say they asked for our sacred cow instead of saying we weren’t willing to displace out 2B and/or weren’t willing to take on payroll?
The worst part about that is that a seemingly credible journalist reported it.
Marlins are definitely in dealing mode – at least with others. Tweet from Ken Rosenthal:
(Marlins owner Jeffrey) “Loria: ‘We’re always looking for pitching. We want this bullpen to be a tough one. We’re still not done there.’”
Occam’s razor. fla dumped an expensive 2B and took a affordable 2B rental in return (plus a wild loogy). they used the uggla funds recouped to sign buck as a starter at catcher, move coghlan to 3B and their infield is set for 2011.
stl’s inability to match infante’s trade value at 2b, speaks volumes of the current stl 40man roster.
stl has a little league 2B in skippie, and an unproven in descalso/greene, yet stl is not even in the market for a 2B (so says tony).
Oh wow, we could offer half of our bullpen for Troy Tulowitski. That would insure Brendan would be gone.
What’s worse is that Strauss basically defended the reporting and disparaged those who questioned it.
bip and RC, as the Florida owner acknowledged in the Rosenthal tweet, the Marlins have other needs (bullpen). That would have lined up well with the Cardinals’ potential trade strengths.
Sorry, forgot Tulowitski played for the Rockies. My bad. I got a little excited.
So, we trade half our bullpen for Hanley Ramirez instead.
So the bashers line up like sheep to whine and cry because what is reported doesn`t fit their agenda.What a surprise.
Amazing how people say the Cards won`t take on payroll and yet the winter isn`t barely started.
Love to have your insights BW. Really. This blog is so much fun.
Florida got a 2B who average has increased 3 years in a row and a lefty releiver for Uggla.Yes it was less than expected.Apparently the Marlins liked it.So thats all that mattered to them.
Crdswmn-i just don`t see everything as a chance to gripe about something .I don`t feel the need to be a hindsight expert or a second guesser.
IT each his own.
BW — i can’t argue with fla prioritizing infield, ahead of bullpen.
uggla’s 7.8mil from last season is now infante (2.5mil) and john buck (5.0mil) (3/18 = 5/6/7mil?) and their infield for 2011 is set.
Your all characterizing both the Marlins position on Uggla………….and the Cardinals position om Rasmus. …………… incorrectly.
Both players score better against free market valuations, than they do in real life.
General information
The Marlins offered Uggla allot of money to stay………their purpose was control, for a future leverage trade that might yield what they wanted in talent……….they weren’t going to be the ones that paid him………………….. He leveraged them by refusing the play………taking the HR’s for position, to the bank in arbitration…………. he had leverage. He didn’t want to play on a loser for money his entire career. No way they let him play out to FA status……….they offed him. He can still make that play after next year……………. the Braves are gambling to win.
The Cardinals inquire about about everyone……….its the business…….Marlins take Colby. Why not……….you can trade him too……….We don’t have anyone else that might convert to leverage in a talent search……….so they ask for him…………..Cardinal leaks say……….they wanted Colby, and we say………he’s worth more than that…………keep his name on the market……….keep drilling Tony/AP camp on lineup understandings…………………
Uggla isn’t worth as much as you think……………… Colby will likely be traded……..the longer they wait……….the less they will get……………
Applaud Dan U. He made a move in the name of baseball and glory, escaping a team that runs a meat market………….he forced them when he had a chance………… He lost money doing it…80+ games in Florida vs the state income tax in Georgia itself is expensive.
SD GM say they ARE offering Ludwick arbitration.They want him there.
Bw52, count me among those who never understood why anyone felt Ludwick was a non-tender candidate whether with St. Louis, San Diego or anywhere else.
Or draft picks……….. he will take the Arbitration.
Westie, he has no choice. Its accept or retire for him.
Arbitration eligible……….. got caught in between the two posts. Non tender….. if they don’t think any one would absorb the 6 million in a salary bail………I doubt they think he is worth 6 million…
They gambled and lost in 2010………….Ludwick would be playing for FA leverage, so his motivation would be high………..but that has never been his problem………………he just isn’t a better player than cheaper speculations…………. they are stuck now………looking stupid for overvaluing him as the remedy last year…………… all they lost was a AA pitcher………….loss of face is what they are avoiding.
I’m not the least bit upset that Uggla went to Atlanta as I never thought the Cards had an ice cube’s chance in Hades (or of being struck by lightning while simulaneously winning the lottery) of signing him to begin with.
His salary would have eaten up more than half the funds available for ugrades and cost talent at the upper reaches of our system that a team lacking depth like the Cards can ill afford to lose… all for what might have been a one-year rental. There was zero guarantee Uggla would have stayed with us past 2011.
Those who advocate moving KMac to the rotation advocate taking a greater risk than signing Westbrook. Kyle wore down as a reliever in both 2008-09 throwing far less innings than he might expect to see as a starter. In three years he’s never thrown more than 75.2 innings in a season in MLB. What could we expect asking him to throw 150-180 innings as a starter?
Not only that, but KMac’s a very important cog in the bullpen. His ability vs. LH hitters is a valuable commodity allowing TLR to approach late innings without resort to R-L matchups when he’s on the bump.
Moving him from his accustomed role might have filled one hole while creating another, or perhaps exposed two positions in a worst-case scenario. So the move for Westbrook was a far less risky move for sure.
Colby for Uggla is laughable, whether that bid was actually made or not.
This team was only 5 games off the pace in the Central in 2010, despite losing 40% of the starting rotation in May, losing two key run producers in late June, and seeing two middle infielders & a catcher struggle mightily at the plate for major parts of the year.
With better health, or at least a deeper bench to back up the front liners, this team should be in the thick of things in the Central in 2011 without $12M/year player upgrade, IMO.
Brian — In today’s Strauss chat, he backed way off on his speculation about Stephen Drew as a trade target, quoting Kevin Tower (the Snake’s GM) saying Drew was not available in trade. So your source was on the money on that point.
News flash — Stan the Man approved to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Congrats to THE MAN for a well-deserved honor!
Thanks for the info, HB. I’ve learned through personal experiences with rumors (some of them taught the hard way) to try to trace them back to the source. A lot of times the message changes in the interim, sort of like the old telephone game we played as kids. In this case, it seemed to me like all the Drew talk was wishful thinking, but these ideas have a way of taking on a life of their own.
The Cardinals could have easily signed Uggla Tex…………….4/44 with a no trade clause gets him in an instant………………….
The facts………. Somebody is going to be on the hook for 8/10 million in 2011……….that’s the game.
He turned down an offer 4/48 that had him giving up control of his career. He wants more than money.
The “Colby trade” for that opportunity argument is a complete fallacy……….. Marlins trade Colby the same day for Upton, knowing that the Diamondbacks like Colby. And they like the brother tandem……………..they lost control of Uggla………..they took what they could. Colby isn’t a fit there.
Kmac will never be a starter……….they fixed it……………… do any of you know why, and for how much BD sold another “no trade” clause……………………… I’m loving it……….. he is going to kick AP’s ass……………… watch him.
Why????????? because he has people saying and believing statements like this…”His salary would have eaten up more than half the funds available for upgrades”………… Its time to love your owner………….he’s the stud here.
I’ve said it before, increase payroll or keep losing. Those who think the Cards can’t afford this and can’t afford that are …………..what is a polite way of saying living in la la land?
MemphisRedbirds tweets:
Eduardo Sanchez, Adam Reifer, David Kopp, Adron Chambers and Pete Kozma have been added to the Cardinals’ 40-man Major League roster.
Aw, c’mon crdswmn! You’re giving props to the wrong guys. I tweeted it before them and already have an article up on the home page!
Sorry Brian, didn’t know it. You are always the Man.
That one is taken!
Okay then, the Guy.
Cards have failed to win 85+ games 5 times in the 15-year TLR regime: 73 wins in 1997, 83 in 1998, 75 in 1999, 83 in 2006 and 78 in 2007. Only 3 of 15 seasons below .500, and the 83 wins in ’06 was good enough to take the Cards to a World Series win. That’s losing?
Talk to the Pirates about losing… or the Cubs.
HB—See a recent pattern there?
In addition I don’t see less than 90 games a successful season. You have a lower threshold than me.
A pattern? Yep, Walt’s last year, when he was restricted in what he could do, and continuing since he left.
90 game threshold… good for you.
By definition a winning season is 1 game over .500. By your standards, I assume winning the WS in ’06 with 83 wins wasn’t successful?
DD was on the Bernie show earlier. He was asked about his advice to Westbrook last year and said it was more like advice to Yadi. Have him throw the sinker more and throw it for strikes, because they can’t center it. Said he would encourage even heavier use of the sinker, and to make them swing at it by throwing it for a strike. Said Jake was not full speed at the beginning of the season with Cleveland due to the TJ. Said he should be off and running this spring.
Said Garcia could have kept going, but was shut down as a precaution. He had only pitched 38 innings the year before,
Sounded very optimistic about Lohse. Said he’d be healthy going into spring, etc.
Said Reyes won’t be back, looking for a loogy. Said having the rotation set going in to spring will allow the pen guys to get set in their roles.
I also heard this evening on the radio something about a rumor that Albert’s side is talking about a contract like A-Rod’s. 10 yrs guaranteed. Don’t know where it came from, if there’s anything to it. Does anybody have anything on that?
’06 was a gift. What would you rather do, stand pat and win 85-87 games or increase payroll, get some offense and win 90-92? That was my point. Not everything I say is an indictment against TLR. Chill bro.
I’ve been seeing some references to Cox compared to Wallace defensively at third. Yikes, that is kind of what I’m afraid of. Mostly, everybody just wants to talk about his hitting, which seems to be pretty good, but nobody wants to talk about his defense, and does he look like a major league potential 3B or not. Brian, do you have any observations based on seeing him in person?
crdswwn — As we’ve discussed, I’m all for upgrading the offense, starting with a position in middle infield that isn’t 2B. (Insert one of those winky things here) where a fellow hit .223 last year.
I don’t think it’s la-la land to understand that all teams, including the Cards, have limits on what they can spend. The Cards aren’t the biggest market, yet they always seem to be at or around the dividing line for the top 1/3 in spending in baseball. Attendance to see a winning team makes that possible. Could it be more? Sure, but it’s always easy spending someone else’s money.
My understanding is that the team is increasing payroll this year to around $100M, which gives us $15-18M to spend this off-season, minus the $8M that Westbrook got in his deal yesterday. And payroll will certainly increase in 2012 if Pujols is signed, which I hope he is.
The question BB………………..A-rods first contract…………or the rewrite………….two different puppies.
It isn’t going to happen that way…………………… This will be the contract offer…… 27/8 with options on 9 and 10……….and most importantly ………incentives……….. large incentives…………. that he may or may not reach depending on health……….and A-Rod…………..
That is what the dragging will be about……………… it will effect the whole market………Lozano will loose it………. and ask for an opt-out dependent on Cardinal competitive posture……….BD then has him………………. AP/Lozano will then have to talk about what it is they do want………… AP will have no ego protection…………. his warm blanket and Tony just waiting………….
By the way…………that’s is the worst case competitive scenario……….. that will also take BD all the way through the FA glut………same as last year. ………………. One injury or two……and we are the 4th place team.
Best case…….take 40 million and Mark T and win the division by 7 games. Red Sox aren’t going to break up their core for AP………………………the tell…………Sox have made a Jason bay type of offer to Beltre……………… he wants to stay there but he’s chained to Boras……….. the size of that contract, without protections is just about what the Cardinals might pay for Beltre in a trade for AP………… with a pitcher of course……………………. These teams are ready to pull the trigger because the sanctions have been lifted……………………….the Yankees are willing to pay Lee a bunch, as much to keep from going against him in the playoffs as anything else….a defensive move………………………….Can you imagine Pujols, Cano, Jeter and A-Rod for an infield………. the question mark is AP……….who likely finds that tough company to demand feeding rights………….
bb — That buzz about Albert seeking an A-Rod type, 10-year/$300M deal is based on a piece by an SI writer, Jon Heyman.
Only thing I have control of is how much of my money goes into BD’s pocket. No significant improvement in the team in the next couple of years, no more of my money goes there. Simple really. I am not spending someone else’s money I am spending mine.
The Cards can get rid of Brendan. And when/if he goes to another team and excels, you will never hear the end of it from me HB, so be forewarned.
Just ask some of the regulars on this blog. 
Thanks for the info HB.
Westy, on the radio the argument was made that an A-Rod contract won’t happen anyway, even in FA next winter.
P-D reports Oquendo not among finalists for the Mets managerial position.
I agree BB………….They aren’t going to do any contracts over 200 large anymore……..Incentives and options might take AP over 200……….but barely. They like FA now that they have figured out how to profit by it…………… A-Rods contract was unique………it served its purpose……… it’s over……
Here’s the link to that article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/11/17/winter.meetings/index.html
crdswmn — I like Ryan too. I hope the Cards get someone else (like Uribe) to start there this year and keep Brendan as a backup, giving him a chance to recover from last year’s disaster in a less pressure-filled role. He’d be a great late-inning defensive replacement, a pinch runner that could swipe a bag, and a big upgrade off the bench from what we had there last year. If he gets hot, TLR will play him more and the way TLR uses his bench, he’d get plenty of opportunities.
There really isn’t another big league SS in the organization, except Tyler Greene, who has not impressed me at all. My nickname for him is ‘Hands of Stone’ and he’s hit .222 over 2 stints in the bigs. So the best outcome, if upgrade at SS is in order as TLR/Mo have indicated, is to get some help there and keep Ryan around, hoping for a rebound. I’d love to see him do well, but he has to hit to have a chance.
Kind of a scary article about private ‘acadamies’ in the Dominican.
“At the end of a dirt road in Don Gregorio, an hour and a half by car from Santo Domingo, a small house is surrounded by concrete walls and metal fences topped with shiny barbed wire. The entrances are locked.
Inside is what is known as a pensión, a dormitory for about a dozen prospects as young as 14. They are trained by California Sports Management of Sacramento . . .
The barbed wire was installed a few months ago, after a player hopped the fence . . . It’s to make sure they don’t get out.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/18/sports/baseball/18investors.html?_r=1&ref=sports
HB–I like Skip too. I also hope the Cards get someone else like Uribe to start at 2B. The problem for TLR is that if they get Uribe but keep Brendan, Brendan may in fact get hot, then what to do with Uribe? Play him at 2B? TLR won’t want that. The only way to make sure Skip stays at 2B is to remove Brendan entirely from the picture therefore leaving him no option but to play Uribe at short and keep Skip at 2B. Am I taking a page from WC’s book? Maybe. Or maybe not. We’ll see.
Thanks for the SI link, bb…
Wow BB…………….DeWitt taking a little bit of press there……………… I do hope you see the point here BB…………………………………. he called BD a Billionaire……………………that’s what is interesting. Heyman visits a few sites it appears………….and that’s no Joke………
I will defend the possibility Straus’ reporting is not wrong.
It has been reported in the media that the Cards and Rasmus are not in lock-step. Why shouldn’t another team asking for Rasmus in any trade proposal? It does no harm to ask.
The Marlins only need one trade partner. They could ask for a lofty price from 28 teams then accept a cheaper offer from the 29th. Its called price discrimination (in economics). There is no obligation to offer the same good terms to every opposing team.
A few years back, it was reported the Red Sox asked for Rasmus for over-the-hill, fat David Wells. This sounded ridiculous at the time. But this does not establish that it was wrong. For all we know, its a common tactic to ask for the moon in many trade negotiations. These negotiations are private and do not include reporters, so its hard for fans to know what was truly said.
I’d bet Bill planted the A-Rod contract info then conveniently bumed into Heyman, already having cleared his throat.
crdswmn — We’re a couple of hard cases, you and I. (Insert smiley face here). I admire loyalty in people and those who stick to their guns.
This is all speculative, but if the Cards did get Uribe, it’s likely he plays SS vs. RHP and 2B vs. LHP. On days Uribe plays 2B, Ryan gets starts at SS in addition to other playing time. I believe TLR will play the hot hand and match-ups, as he always does. A platoon/competition between those 3 for 2 spots might be a good thing for everyone involved, with playing time going to the most effective pair.
Of course, that assumes Freese stays healthy/plays well, or is backed up by another player yet to be signed so Uribe doesn’t have to play 3B. Any way you slice it, a bench guy on a TLR team gets plenty of playing time if he performs.
Uribe probably wouldn’t sign for more than a year or two and if Ryan rebounds he would be lined up for bigger and better things in 2012.
edit: bumped into Heyman
HB and Bw: appreciate your support for the Cardinals!
FYI, there are some posters who are NOT Cards fans. There are others who are truly fans, but are surrounded by abundant opinion, rumors, misinformation, and misreporting. It is understandable some are disheartened or led astray.
If you want to insert smiley faces HB just type a colon followed by a right parentheses. Like this
What you suggest makes sense which is why I am skeptical. It has been my observation that TLR has no limits on what machinations he will attempt to get what he wants.
You want to know why I dislike TLR so much? It is because he epitomizes what I despise most in humanity (besides evil). Brilliance deliberately tarnished by monstrous ego.
If Brendan shows up at ST, then and only then will I believe that TLR is not making this a personal vendetta.
Jumbo, you are truly a treasure. It is so rare to find someone who is right about everything.
HB– your “kmac is a very important cog in the pen” evaluation doesn’t fly. it suggests stl should have left wainwright and garcia in the pen for the same reasons.
look at garcia’s innings in 2009. kyle’s last 3 seasons IP is not a legit reason for concern.
a starters total innings are always more valuable than a relievers total innings, from the same arm.
baseball 401
Ref #46. bb, I saw Cox play two games at third. He was inconsistent. Made some routine plays and muffed one. I wrote about him at the Rising Stars Game here.
Thanks for the response and link.
So, now there are 38 on the 40-man. A backup catcher and a loogy will make 40. That argues against additional FA signings. Also any 1 for 2 trades.
bip — It’s your evaluation that doesn’t fly. Waino and Jaime were always slated to be starters in MLB, and both were starters throughout their time in the minors. They were eased into the role in the bigs by letting them get their feet wet out of the ‘pen before putting them into the rotation. Waino did a great job filling in for the injured Izzy in 2006. I’ve always believed the Cards wouldn’t have won the Series that year with a healthy Isringhausen… Waino came up huge!
Not so with KMac. Although he did start some in the low minors, nearly all his work from high A ball and above was as a reliever and he came to the bigs to fill that role. (Check the stats, I just did). Dunc has said on multiple occasions that he has enough pitches to be a starter some day, but he hasn’t gotten that chance yet.
2010 is a case in point. KMac, Jaime and Rich Hill were vying for the 5th spot in the rotation in ST. Hill washed out, ineffective, and KMac, despite doing well, was moved back to the ‘pen because Hawks and Boggs had bad springs and stability was needed from the RH side there. At that time Motte was still a big question mark, leaving only Franklin as a solid option from the right side as camp broke. For a time, both Salas and Otto were considered as options over the ineffective Boggs & Hawksworth.
Personally, I think KMac is the glue that holds our pen together and he’d be sorely missed there if moved out of that role.
Is Anderson not on the 40 man?
Definitely need a backup Infielder as well bb, Augenstein is expendable now that we have signed Westbrook.
crdswmn — OK, let me try your smiley face thing…
I think TLR is a solid manager, but I didn’t always like him either. He’s grown on me over the years because he’s a winner. He or any player/manager in a competitive sport must have a healthy ego to compete at the highest level. If you don’t believe in yourself, you can’t make others do it.
What he lacks is that folksy thing that Whitey had, that self-effacing humor that would rub off some of his sharper edges. He’s an intense competitor who HATES losing. That’s part of what makes him good, but at the same time it isn’t always pretty, especially when he loses.
I took a class when I was in the corporate world called Manging Interpersonal Relationships. People in this class take a test and get divided into four groups by personal social style: Drivers, Analyticals, Amiables and Expressives.
I see TLR as an analytical-driver… serious as a heart attack, goal oriented, all business… the type who views those who aren’t like him as not being as serious/committed as he is. That’s why he uses terms like ‘grind it out’. Ryan is an amiable-expressive mix, fun-loving, people oriented, attention seeking… the type who wonders why an analytical driver can’t loosen up and have some fun. They clash, but both would do better by gaining a better understanding of the other. They have the same goals, just different ways of getting there.
The whole team would benefit from taking this class. It was one of the best courses I ever took, more useful than anything I had in college. It taught me a lot about how to understand and handle different personality types and especially difficult bosses.
As for ego, everybody has one to a greater or lesser degree, even us keyboard jockeys.
1)The $30 million a year is what he questioned more than the eight-year term, though he didn’t really OK the eight years either (he had no reaction to that).
2) DeWitt said the Cardinals did plan to talk to the most prominent 2011-12 free agent between now and shortly after the New Year.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
1a) BD is tolerating the interview………… that’s why he went to the GM meeting of course. But he draws the line……under control……..
2b) Shortly after the new year?????????…………….. six weeks before pitchers report???????? AP negotiations are independent of this years plans????????? Whats that 6 weeks for anyway????? He is messaging the interested?????????????? scripting the passion play???????????
Everyone has an ego, HB, the key is what you do with it. TLR, imo, does the worst possible thing with his, manipulates people in any possible way at any possible cost. I have known this type of person before so I recognize it when I see it. I don’t believe you can fit people into personality categories, HB. However, I do believe people can change if they want to badly enough. Whatever causes that change to happen, if it is for the better, I’m all for it. I have my doubts that TLR wants to change though.
Crd…………….I don’t think your view of Tony if very healthy………….I must admit to understanding your points…………so I’m mentioning it…………….. does his emotionality challenge you? this is not to disagree with you…………..its simplify to point out that your gratification may be complicated for him too…………. could it be presented to him as some form of challenge…………..I would remind you that it is his job to manipulate people…………..you might argue that he gets less out of some that posses a wealth of resources………..but he usually gets more out of those that have less to give.
Personally………..I find him uninspired and inhibited by his fear of failure. He is too macho to care what other people think……………but his coaches and players, that’s another story. You will like him more before this season starts I think……….give it a chance………..he sees his end, and that is sobering for all of us.
WC—Since TLR and I do not know each other my view of him has no emotional effect on me whatsoever, so my health is unaffected.
People and things can be manipulated in a positive and a negative way. Tony does both. It is the negative way that I have a problem with.
It doesn’t matter a hoot what I think about TLR. HB and I were just having a conversation about TLR and I thought he might be interested in the basis for my opinion of him. That is all. I can go on and not give it another thought so no need to worry about me.
Tejada and Uribe waiting to see what Jeter gets.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/latin-links-tejada-uribe-feliz-cuba.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook
That’s good……. I’m over it……………
Ref comment #78, that seems like another stretch…
Amen to that
The power of editing…………..
That’s actually a significant post………………….they are going to wait it out too……….BD is slowing the market down…………………now Cashman, by just waiting with Jeter, stops the presses.
crdswwn — I think it’s very hard for most people to change fundamently. Superficial change is doable, but fundamental change isn’t. The more success you have and the older you are, the harder it is to change, even superficially. Change comes easier to the young and during or after significant failure.
But even then, the range of change possible is limited. It’s like a house… you can pull up the carpet and put in hardwood floors, paint, re-arrange the furniture, change the drapes… but you haven’t really changed the fundamental structure of the house… the walls, the roof, etc. are still the same.
There are personality categories, but most folks don’t fit neatly into one or the other. There is a mixture… but one trait usually dominates.
You say ‘manipulate’, but I think the better word is motivate. TLR is the boss. His job is to take 25 pieces of talented, complex, diverse humanity and drive them toward a common goal… winning. That’s what he wants. It isn’t malevolent, but being a driver, he is a stern taskmaster. He’s not the warm and fuzzy type. He drives himself and expects others to do the same, to be like him. He calls that being professional, doing things the right way… his way.
Players who are like TLR are the easiest for him to motivate, since they readily understand each other. Trouble comes when he tries to motivate those players who aren’t like him, the guys he doesn’t understand as well and who don’t understand him. They react differently to motivational stimulus than he would.
RC is all over this subject when he talks about giving TLR the type of player he wants, but his diagnosis is a little off, IMO. It’s not just young players vs. aged veterans, it’s personality type and how different people react (or don’t react) to external direction and motivation. Mature people know how to handle authority better than immature people. But maturity isn’t always a function of age.
I’d guess the thing about TLR that bugs you most is when he makes critical comments about a player to the media. Obviously, nobody wants to get a negative performance report via TV or the papers. But shame and peer pressure are strong motivators.
I’d be surprised if any of that critical stuff he says is news to the person on the receiving end. More likely it’s something that’s been discussed privately and repeatedly, but hasn’t been resolved. Most folks respond best to positive reinforcement, but not all. Some need a swift kick in the pants every now and then. I think the media stuff is TLR’s version of a swift kick in the pants.
Long story short… I don’t think there’s much chance TLR will fundmentally change. He’s had too much success and he’s been doing it for too long to think there is a need to change. He holds the power position in relationship to his players and in his view, they need to bend to his will, not the other way around.
That may not be the best way, but it’s his way, and he’s the boss.
HB –TLR’s treatment of Brendan is simply the latest of things TLR has done that bugs me. If you want to think TLR uses the media for the good of the players or the team by all means do so. Probably in some cases he does. But don’t be fooled. TLR does what is best for TLR above all things.
Not everyone is motivated the same way. It seems to me a good manager should know which way works best for which player. My way or the highway people will have success with some people but not with others. And as you have admitted, that is TLR’s M.O. Not exactly a teamwork strategy. You are right, he is not likely to change. More’s the pity.
Like beauty, success is in the eye of the beholder.
I’m done with TLR. I don’t want WC to think I am obsessed.
HB, what you suggest about TLR seems plausible.
The fallout of Rolen and LaRussa may be instructive. Without the bad luck of some injuries, Rolen was a Hall of Fame calibre talent. Yet TLR got on him in public in September 2006 and this was unfair, given the Cards poor medical care of Rolen the previous season. After the 2007 season, TLR wrote a note to Rolen, suggesting how he could improve and this was the final straw for Scott. So even with a great player, not just a fringy SS, TLR was a driver, asking for more.
I also think TLR has tended to encourage players to play through what are thought to be minor injuries. If so, this is keeping with being demanding.
I can see how this style, if true, could be difficult for some players to enjoy. Yet in many walks of life, employees do not enjoy their bosses. Would the Cards do better under a different managerial approach? Its hard to know.
Jumbo — If you look at that 2006 post-season run, Rolen was on fire after TLR sat him out for a game because he had been ineffective. After that, Scotty was motivated with a capital M and came up big down the stretch. He would have been MVP if not for the heroics and good fortune of David Eckstein. That’s a case where negative motivation paid off short-term, but it had a long-term affect on their relationship that eventually led to Rolen’s trade.
I didn’t know about the note you mentioned. But it fits. TLR is a driver. That’s how he gets so much out of so many marginal players. But it doesn’t work for everyone.
I was glad to hear that Rolen dropped by TLR’s office this year to patch things up. That shows the character of the man we admired when he was wearing 27 for us.
crdswmn — A guy who rescues animals in his off-time doesn’t impress me as the kind of person who cares only about himself. There must be something good in a man who loves animals.
I agree that TLR is an authoritarian. It’s a pretty common trait in bosses. He’s not warm and cuddly, but I don’t think he’s unreasonable or uncaring either. He’s a tough boss, but if you give him what he asks, he’s in your corner, even when you fail. I’m sure he makes mistakes. We all do, but ultimately what is good for him… winning, should be good for every player too.
TLR reminds me a lot of my dad, also a ‘my way or the highway’ type. I rebelled under that authority and left home right after HS, to join the Air Force. But after six weeks of basic in the tender care of a couple of drill sergeants, dear old dad started to look like a real pussycat in comparison.
I’ve had little problem dealing with authority figures since then. I learned it’s all relative.
If things go right we will all love Tony by next November. If, on the other hand, it is a third year in a row of rolling over at crunch time, there is the question of if he will have a chance to catch McGraw in St. Louis. As has been pointed out, our core won’t be in their prime forever.
Tony is a draw though, part of the legend. When the Cards roll into a town, true baseball believers know they can get a look at some things, like TLR, Albert, BigMac. Legendary pitching coach, Cy winner/contender, Yadi’s arm, Matt the former batting champ. I can see where the idea of an eye-popping GG shortstop whould be appealing too. But in the end, you have to make it to the show. Bottom line.
HB– the 2010 ST competition highlights why kmac should be in the rotation. during ST none of us knew who the better starter would be, kmac or jaime. jaime even had post surgery concerns.
so if we could add another garcia type to the 2011 rotation, we should pass due to “he’s the glue that holds the pen together”? nah, i wouldn’t choose to pass on adding another affordable garcia type to the rotation.
there’s not that much difference between kmac and motte / boggs as relievers. but, there is huge difference between kmac > hawksworth / suppan.
PJ and otto were brought to the rotation because they were stretched out. no problem there, but they both were demoted. then THE season flaw was made. we pulled hawksworth from the pen, and it should have been kmac. then we pulled suppan from his couch (and neither was stretched out).
suppan / hawksworth worked out so well, we had to trade luddy for jake (and the snowball gets bigger). and now we’ve spent 8mil per on jake (multi-year), when we could have used those funds on a bat w/kmac in the rotation, LOL.
jake’s not a bad signing, but when you have an in-house option at SP, meet the lineup needs with funds available. it’s not like our lineup actually won with jake starting, now did it? well, here we are again
simply put, any decision that yields hawksworth more innings in 2010 than kmac, is flawed. that’s the cost of being scared for your pen.
HBT wrote, “As for ego, everybody has one to a greater or lesser degree, even us keyboard jockeys.”
Not me.
2011 seems to be setting us up for some nice entertainment HBT if TLR stays the course. Fireworks on a weekly basis.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_391efd8e-e0b6-5727-8673-2ec3739ab26f.html
The article is about backing up Freese but read between the lines. Mark my words, Brendan Ryan will be showing up for ST for another team.
Crdswmn wrote, “Brendan Ryan will be showing up for ST for another team.”
For his future to be a positive this needs to happen.
And I will be cheering him on.
And I will be crowing ceaselessly about every error Skip makes.
And i will be cheering the Cardinals on no matter what.
I may break my damn tv watching Skip play second again next year.
Tony trying to tell us he is a capable starter is like Stephen Hawking trying to tell the world 2+2=5.
Well, sort of. In a way. Maybe not.
Easton, most of the Jumbo’s out there will just watch the games and will not even remotely notice the same things a baseball person will notice. They will smile, cheer, and say what a hustler this guy or that guy is. They’ll read the post dispatch and believe what is written there because most people, they believe, are good people and have good intentions.
I predict Skip will make twice as many errors because he won’t have Brendan there to cover his butt. The Cards will never find a SS with Brendan’s range.
Agree, RC. It is refreshing to talk to others who watch the nuances rather than just the score. Or talk to others who are willing to think critically but reasonably without letting fandom cloud one’s judgment.
Hustling is awesome. I love hustling. I love great teammates too. But that doesn’t mean you are good (or, at least, capable of the task being handed you).
I also love baseball players who wear their pant legs up rather than over their shoes.
But that doesn’t mean you are good either…
I just typed a long post but apparently it didn’t go through and I lost it. Damn. Here’s the gist:
I enjoy chatting with others who watch more about the game than the score or whatever. The nuances are what makes the game interesting to me.
I love players who hustle. I love leaders. I love great teammates. Etc. Etc. But none of those mean you are good (at the role that has been handed or prescribed for you, at least).
I also love players who wear their pant legs up rather than over their shoes.
But that doesn’t make you a good player either…
easton and HB, three comments of yours (two and one, respectively) from just a short while ago were caught in the site’s spam filter. Not sure what was the trigger word or words, but they have now been released.
Thanks, Brian.
P.S. Your mailbox on the main site is full.
Just an FYI…I am having issues with the blog generating errors and force closing. I have been for a while now – but it is more frequent the last couple of days. That has never once happened on the main site. It is probably me but I wanted to share just in case.
I like how my ‘gist’ post is longer than my ‘long’ post.
So, in summary…
Sorry you are having trouble here. Previously, I had only received one notice of a problem. That came from a user of Internet Explorer and I think it went away when he tried Firefox instead. If others are seeing issues, please speak up.
(I will clean out my mail at the main site. Thanks for the heads up.)
No problem. I wish I could use Firefox all the time…
It doesn’t do it at home or on my phone browser (Dolphin HD).
easton — I’ve had the same problem here. When I open an article the browser tab closes and re-opens, sometimes multiple times, and when it finally loads I get message that says ‘Done, but with errors on page’.
Are you using Windows Exploder?
RC — If you need it, I’ll vouch for you on the ego thing.
OK, I will allocate some time to look for problems at my current software releases. Maybe it is time to update the site software anyway…
Brian — Thanks for the ‘get out of jail’ card on my post last night. I thought, after it didn’t show up, that you were telling me it was time to shut up and go to bed. So I did.
HB- Rapist torturer and murderer of eight, Christopher Wilder, made donations to Save The Whales and the Seal Rescue Fund.
Ok that was probably out of line. I am not comparing TLR to a serial killer.
WC my view of TLR is not unhealthy but my need to have the last word probably is. I will work on that.
I have had similar problems with IE Brian.
crdswmn — Did you hear about that guy that was found dead in StL? He was discovered in his bath tub, naked, and the tub was full of milk and banana slices. Word is, police think it was one of those cereal killers.
Sorry, couldn’t resist. And yes, comparing TLR to Wilder was probably over the top.
Good one HB.
I knew it was over the top. Sometimes I can’t help myself.
Kudos to the voters for voting King Felix for the Cy Young…in a landslide!
I am sure the East Coasters are having a knipshin fit.
‘Easton, most of the Jumbo’s out there will just watch the games and will not even remotely notice the same things a baseball person will notice. They will smile, cheer, and say what a hustler this guy or that guy is. They’ll read the post dispatch and believe what is written there because most people, they believe, are good people and have good intentions’.
…………………………………pass the potato’s……………………………………….. Jumbo doesn’t actually watch games RC………..he just checks the box scores……………….. If I recollect…………….. pass the butter please…………thank you…………………. by the way, I here that this years collusion is underway……and if it works out locally……….?????????………..you don’t say!!!! AP next leverage point doesn’t come until he digs his heels in………Notice how Nolan Ryan backed off the Lee bidding after the meetings……. If Lee wins two……..and they take the series…..different story…… as it stands……..whats the use of forcing the Yankees to spend more?
Reads likwe a massive self-congratulatiory “look at me i am smarter than everybody else” post. How did all you get on the same planet with the size of some of the egos here.Gee thanks guys for mingling a bit with us mere mortals.
BW–WHAT are you talking about? Who is “you all” and what post[s] are you talking about?
It seems here lately a person can’t post an opinion without someone else getting huffy about it. I don’t expect everybody to agree with me. Hell, I’m not sure I agree with me some of the time.
Can we chill please?
To clarify: Jumbo does not have a TV. This saves on energy consumed by rage or anxiety. Skip’s not bothering me, ha-ha.
I got news for you Bw, since you are a humble mortal. You are smarter than them!
Who are “them”? Glad you asked!
Is HBTexas one of them? Clearly not. He is a great Cards fan.
Do you like it when Mo is able to land Pedro Feliz? If you answer yes, you are not one of them.
Is Westie one of “them”? Of course not. He is in a class by……………………………….himself.
Crdswmn, He’s been agreeing with Jumbo so long he is turning into him.
Paranoid Schizophrenia
I can’t speak for anyone else but my postings didn’t say, “look at me I’m smarter than everybody else”. But they did mean look at me I’m damn sure smarter than Jumbo.
I’m only kidding Jumbo, that was one of those attempts at being humor….ha…..ha….ha(sounded out in a robot voice).
Jumbo, let me school you on one of Sir Isaac Newton’s Laws of Motion, the third one to be exact.
For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
Thats all that is taking place here Jumbo, it is just the laws of the universe in action.
You are the resident Savant and I am just a dumb ol court jester. I do give you all the praise and the glory for having it all figured out.
Amen.
Take it easy on our friend RC. We’ve seen this material before, the last time his significant other sprung a leak. A bit of understanding would surely be appreciated.
We can start scanning the Rule 5 guys this weekend. Remember, the Marlins did OK with Uggla, so you never know.
Jumbo is quite tough I assure you Bling. He and I have went at it quite a few times over the years and it always reaches this point where he is just about to blow a gasket. I love him like a brother, or better yet better than a brother since I haven’t spoken to any of my brothers in years and I have to Jumbo recently. Its just a little brotherly spat. Once I know I’ve got to him I just have to push a little harder.
loves and kisses Jumbo.
Too many conspiracy buffs.Too much secrets of the ubiverse.Diabolical moves out to fleece the poor uninformed and unknowledgeable .
And then sometimes a rock is just a rock.
Sometimes that steaming pile of crap is just crap and not recylced secrets of the universe.
Don’t take all the jibberish to heart. it is just a jumbled up bunch of opinions from different folks from all over the place. This is supposed to be fun, cutting the fool with people throwing different thoughts off of each other and seeing what they think. Some of you guys get so upset over a bunch of nothing.
I get on here for fun, not to save the world. If the cardinals win 100 games next year, thats great, if they lose 100, thats too bad. But in the end, it doesn’t effect me one bit. I get the impression some of you guys actually lose sleep over this mess.
gooosfraba goooosfraba
So “them” are those people who do not think MO/TLR”s bowel movements don’t stink?
Interesting. I’ve never been a “THEM” before. Does it come with a badge or a certificate? Or do we have the mark of the beast on our foreheads in invisible ink? Are there meetings where we plan the downfall of Cardinal Nation? If so, why haven’t I been invited? I can plot with the best of them.
I need answers.
No -never said that crdswmn.You say what is on your mind.No problem.We don`t agree often.I still respect your opinions.
Them are the few that need 500 words to say stepping in a pile of crap messes your shoe and stinks too.Then they write 500 words telling everyone how smart they think they are becaused the rest of us don`t know it stinks.
It seems pretty clear the recent run of comments are an indictment of my choice of topics today. Had I said something more profound, the remarks would have been on subject instead of whatever this is about. Perhaps we will all do better tomorrow. Let’s hope.
Actually I was just practicing relating to the kindergartners tomorrow.
Crdswmn, just to clarify, you were not specifically grouped with “them” by me. “Them” can be hard to define.
I did suggest even Westie is not one of them, because so in a class by himself. However, if Westie is not one of them, then there would have to be virtually no “them” at all.
I suppose it could instead be considered that Westie is so larger than life that he counts as several posters in one, in which case he could singlehandedly qualify as “them.”
I also suggested one test indicator for a Cards fan. Its based on Pedro Feliz, a post-prime 3Bman. Pedro’s bat is washed up and he is nearing retirement. Lets face it, Pedro is pretty awful. Mo traded for him back during August, because the situation had gotten so bad at 3B that even Pedro was helpful as a temporary bandage. I like those situations, when the new guy is awful, and everyone knows he is, but he is still an improvement over what you had.
Nutlaw is a pretty smart guy in general. And Nutlaw hated the Feliz traded. This is of course sensible, because Pedro is truly terrible. But sometimes terrible is an upgrade, when a situation is super terrible. I like those kind of upgrades.
I’ve got to hand it to you Jumbo. Close your eyes, hold out your hand. . .
Your Blinders are turned up full Jumbo if you think Feliz was better than what we had!
No kidding.
Feliz was truly hopeless as a hitter, but he did solidify 3B defensively for a time, right after Flip gave several games away with substandard play there. I looked at the Feliz deal as giving up next to nothing and receiving about the same in return.
Not one of Mozeliak’s shining moments, a completely reactive move, but one could see the logic behind it.
Once it became clear that we were eliminated, Feliz sat & Dirty Dan Descalso got time there, performing creditably with the glove but cooled with the bat. We didn’t really have another third sacker on the team, did we? Even Gotay, who was playing 3B down in Memphis is a converted second baseman with lots of errors last year. So I’m not sure what CC means by ‘what we had’, which as I saw it, was nothing…
I’ve lost track of whether I’m being complimented or insulted here, but yeah, I didn’t like the Feliz move at all. I don’t think that it helped the team at all, but as long as he’s nowhere near the 2011 Cardinals, all is good.
Easy to understand what I meant. Feliz was worse offensively, and worse defensively (considering range) than those that played before him and after him. He had an annualized WAR of -2.0. That’s about 10 times worse than Skip was last year!
CC — Name the player(s) please, who were available to play 3B at that time. Hands of Stone Greene and his .222 lifetime MLB BA?
Do realize how bad -2.0 WAR is? Basically, the list starts with every AAA minor leaguer, add in retired and recently released players and you have a nice start for your list. By the Way, Descalso was an annualized 4.5 WAR.
WAR smar… not a big fan of that stat. You named one player, Descalso, a second baseman. Others?
Descalso has only played 3B for the Cards. Never seen 2B – Tony must think he’s a 3B.
You think I’m stupid? Any minor league player I name you will say there is no proof he would have hit that in the majors. Any major league player I name, you’ll just say there is no proof he was available. Feliz played worse than those that played before him during the year (Lopez, Greene, Freese) and was worse than those that played after him (Descalso). If you think I’m wrong show me.
You don’t like War but yet you present no other statistical evidence that provides both offensive and defensive value combined as an alternative. To be honest, you present no stats at all. You want to have your opinion matter but show no reason why it should. Heck, at least Westie pretends to know what’s inside people’s heads.
Besides, why do we need “others” – only one guy can play there. How many do you need? Again, I gave you the list, you just dont want to accept it.
CC — No, I don’t think you’re stupid. I respect you but I have a different opinion than you do about Feliz and I don’t place as much faith in WAR as you seem to.
Descalso had played a total of 49 games in professional ball at 3B before the games he played there for the Cards in 2010. 47 of those were in low A ball in 2007, 2 were in high A ball in 2008. He’s a second baseman.
Gotay had played a total of 12 games at 3B in MLB. In the minors, from 2001-07, he played 16 total games at 3B. In ’09 he played 67 games there and in ’10 he played 103 games for the Redbirds with 17 errors. He was the starting third sacker for Memphis.
Point being… the team had no really good options after Freese went down hurt. Lopez failed there, Greene too, and neither were hitting in August which is why Feliz was acquired. There were no good options at Memphis either, where the starting third baseman was a converted second baseman with 17 errors in 103 games, who BTW, has since been released.
Pedro Feliz is a pretty good defensive third baseman with 1001 MLB games at the position. He played the hot corner on WS teams for the Phils. His hitting has declined precipitously and wasn’t really that good to begin with. He’s a career .250 hitter.
After the Cards acquired him, from Aug. 20-29 he hit in 9 of 10 games, including 5 multi-hit games, collecting 14 hits over that period. Too bad he couldn’t keep that up. He had only 11 more hits the rest of his time as a Cardinal. On defense, he made 2 errors in 90 chances over 275 innings. That performance was solid.
Point being… as bad as he his hitting was, he at least offered experience and skill at the position on defense that was not otherwise available in the top two tiers of the Cardinals organization. You recognize that, which is why you dont’ (or can’t) name names and try to obfuscate that fact behind the WAR statistic.
Baseball had nothing to do with it boys……………………….. the illusion of an effort that made the front office seem “competent” was all that was required and done……………… if you don’t understand why at this…………..migrate.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jeff-gordon/article_8e691a4c-f3db-11df-939f-00127992bc8b.html
for those that are following the incredibly educational MLB scene,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Gordon uses some very nice tricks to make a case for management……….at the same time he is stroking AP…….. ……………… he’s liable to hypertext your dialog here soon enough I’d guess. His function and role was pointed out here recently. Pay attention to the Jeter / Yankee dialog. The collusion is comprehensive and most importantly consistent, making it hared to see. There is an attack by owners concerning a players right to share in marketing revenue as was done in the A-Rods case………………………. There are large forces at play here……….. and an approaching economic crisis on their side.
CC — Here are some numbers regarding other 3B options.
As you noted, no way to say for certain what Gotay might have done if given a shot at 3B. Obviously, the ‘powers that’ be didn’t think he was up to the challenge. Those 17 errors at Memphis likely factored heavily into that decision.
Descalso showed well there, but in very limited time… 9 games, all starts, zero errors and hit .265 in Sept./Oct.
Greene played 11 games there, 5 starts, made 1 error and had a .929 FPCT. He hit .221 for the year, but only .139 in Sept./Oct. He was not with StL in August.
Lopez played 58 games there, 51 starts, made 10 errors for a .926 FPCT. He hit .233 for the year but .141 in August and .179 in Sept./Oct.
Feliz played 39 games at 3B, with 30 starts. He made 2 errors for a .978 FPCT. He hit .294 in August and .155 in Sept./Oct.
You can make an argument about Descalso, who played well there and hit better overall than the others, but he wasn’t added to the 25-man until September call-ups. Otherwise, Feliz was a better option, particularly regarding defense and on offense as well in August.
Ok why are you arguing about Feliz? He ain’t coming back.
Feliz hit far worse for the year than our other internal options. Feliz’s zone rating for the year was far worse than any of our other options. He made less errors. Whose fault was it Descalso wasn’t added sooner? The limited evidence we have shows he was the better option. The fact that they chose not to use him is not an excuse.
Westie, if Feliz was to create the illusion of doing something than they were trying to create the illusion of doing something stupid. It was and even most casual fans could see it.
I’m arguing about management’s competence. IT hasn’t been good lately.
crdswmn — I was only arguing with CC because you weren’t here to argue with.
Agree that Feliz isn’t coming back and that that’s a good thing.
It doesn’t appear that the other 29 teams think much of a few of the 40 man roster guys huh? Hill, Otto, Jones, and Stavi all passed through waivers.
Is it just me or did Ottavino just make a huge mistake? He had a partially torn UCL and agreed to rehab it instead of getting surgery and now he is removed from the 40 man roster. ha ha. He should have done like Jaime did and got the surgery and he would have been paid big league money while he rehabbed the elbow. Now nothing. Not even the 52 grand for being on the 40 man. Somebody is giving that guy some bad advice. He may be done now. I guess you live and learn.
Good point about Ottavino and the money. Rehab seldom seems to work. Seems like a temporary step to eventual surgery.
“Feliz hit far worse for the year than our other internal options”.
Of course, the question isn’t what Feliz did for the year, but what was happening in August and beyond, after Feliz was acquired by the Cardinals. After all, the original point in question was whether Feliz was better or worse than ‘what we had’ at that time. In August, as a Card, Feliz hit .286, while Lopez hit .141 and Greene/Descalso were in Memphis. In Sept./Oct. Feliz hit .155, Greene .139, and Lopez .141. Only Descalso did better, hitting .265 for the month.
“Feliz’s zone rating for the year was far worse than any of our other options”.
Zone rating is not the only or even the best measurement of defensive skill. It is a measure of range. As a Cardinal, Feliz had an FPCT of .978 at 3B, Greene .929, and Lopez .926. Only Descalso had a better (perfect) FPCT, but in very limited action… 9 games.
“Whose fault was it Descalso wasn’t added sooner?”
Bringing Descalso up before Sept. meant dropping someone else off the 25-man roster. In the middle of a pennant race in which the Cards were very much alive, playing a guy at 3B who had played 2 games there since 2008 and had zero MLB experience would have been highly questionable, especially if he had struggled.
“The limited evidence we have shows he [Descalso] was the better option”.
Agree that with the full benefit of 20-20 hindsight, Descalso turned out to be the best among then-available options. Still, 9 games is a very limited data set to base any decision on. At the time, Mo had to weigh the experience of Feliz, with 962 MLB games at the position, vs. zero games at that position in MLB for Descalso. Critics criticize, but that was a very defensible decision, based on what was known at the time.
I pretty sure I remember reading that Otto’s decision not to have surgery was his own.
Not surprised about Nick. A little surprised they chose Anderson over Hill. I’d read that some in the organization thought more of Hill than Andy. I’d guess the calculation with Otto is that nobody will pursue him with his current shoulder issues. Didn’t know much about Jones, but from what others said… and with Adron Chambers seemingly passing him up, it makes sense.
Anderson and Greene might still be in jeopardy if Mo acquires players for SS and backup catcher, as has been reported.
I wonder what options Otto was given RC………….he didn’t do the calculations…….or they did……..
“I’m arguing about management’s competence. IT hasn’t been good lately.”
Sometimes our personal need obscures what your instincts are telling us…………….
They are extremely competent………. baseball has nothing to do with it. It is not the measure of their plan and achieving it…………………………….. I’m not suggesting anything here……..but for the fun of it……………..put the Cardinals in the Giants place………..how much are you playing AP now? It is not just local politics and revenue………….BD is an activist……he is making a point………. the Yanks are at it too…………..
This is why Tony is really pissed………….. and stepped away from Dave and his staff…… they have cut his throat every year since I arrived. He will be vocal this year.
Watch Uribe and MT……….they want to be payed and they’re using the Cardinal Rhetoric to enhance their positions to resign with their current teams……….. the Rasmus trade is the only move bd will make……………….
Imagine this……….AP just guts up………and plays his option year out…….using BD/Mo to focus his aggression instead of “whatever it is he does”………….. What does he cost with a triple crown, and a bunch of residual anger…………. and maybe a good playoff run………… you can’t count that high………………….Bd has him pegged as a coward for various reason……… if he gets focused and doesn’t sit out the year by doing the surgery to enhance his 2012 season………he will rip BD a new one……Tony pushing every step of the way……………. this is great entertainment…….watch it happening…………………………. Remember, the extra 30 million on the MH contract………was just to avoid more complicity in the politics surrounding the Collusion settlement………..period.
Feliz was the worst position player in baseball at the time of the trade and ended as the worst position player in baseball at the end of the season (by WAR). He had a negative defensive component along with a very negative offensive component. If you think that a good fielding percentage and no range makes you a good defender, then you must be stuck decades in the past with the dinosaurs who handed Jeter a gold glove.
You can’t upgrade any position by inserting the worst player in baseball. It is by definition impossible. It was a terrible move and let us hope that it’s like is not repeated.
Nutlaw — As the statistics I posted show, after we acquired him, Feliz played better both offensively and defensively than our other available options at the time… better than Lopez in August, and better than Lopez and Greene in September. This should not be in dispute.
I assume you accept batting average as a valid statistic. I assume you accept errors and FPCT as valid statistics, even if you believe other statistics provide additional insight about factors like range and difficulty that traditional stats don’t capture. All defensive stats fall short, IMO, as all involve some degree of subjectivity… traditional or otherwise.
Only Descalso, called up in September after roster expansion, did better at 3B than Feliz, and that is based on an extremely limited sample. And I don’t recall anyone anywhere calling for Descalso’s promotoion to play 3B in August.
Mozeliak’s choices in August were Greene & Lopez, and both had failed. At the time, I viewed acquiring Feliz as an effort to solidify 3B defensively after we lost several games due to Lopez making errors there. He did solidify the position defensively over what we had at the time.
If Feliz was statistically ‘the worst position player in baseball at the time of the trade’, as you say, then he outplayed his stats or those stats are wrong, because he certainly played better than Lopez and Greene during August and September, which is the only point I’ve tried to make in this entire discussion.
We had a steaming pile at third and our illustrious leader brought in a crusted over pile. Jumbo thinks that is an improvement and Nut does not. Many others chime in. I’m on the fence. It did not help us win the division, but then, niether did getting Westbrook.
I don’t have a dog in this hunt HB.
crdswmn — Good thing we’re not dicussing Brendan.
Feliz was not better offensively than our other options. He had 10 hot days in August and returned to his norm. Even those 10 days (1/3 of his time here) was not enough for him to hit better as a Cardinal than Lopez, Greene, or Descalso. HE talks about small sample sizes but his whole argument relies on this. HE continues to refuse to acknowledge that the available evidence Shows that Descalso should have been brought up and was a better option (something he says we didnt have).
Why do zone rating matter? Who cares if you dont make any errors if you dont get to the ball in the first place!
From August 20th (Feliz’s first game as a Card) to the end of the season he hit .208. In the same time frame, Tyler Greene hit .138, Lopez hit .137 (as a Cardinal) and Descalso hit .265. Yes, Feliz had 10-game hot streak and then did poorly. Likewise, Descalso’s BA was related to a hot streak… that lasted one day vs. Pittsburgh, when he picked up 4 of his 9 hits in 34 total AB’s in MLB.
CC is right that Feliz did not have a higher BA as a Cardinal than Greene, Descalso, and Lopez did for the year, but the question in dispute has been whether the Cards had better options available at 3B at the time. Clearly, if they had, they wouldn’t have traded for Feliz, unless one assumes that Cards management is senseless and stupid. Feliz is a deeply flawed player, but he was better, particularly on defense, than what the Cards had at the time… Lopez. Greene missed all of August due to a hand injury, if memory serves, and Descalso wasn’t on the team at all until Sepetember call-ups.
As for CC’s assertion that Descalso, who had no MLB experience, should have been brought up from 3A in August in the middle of a pennant race to play 3B, a position he had played 2 games at since 2008 (high A ball)… well, that’s ridiculous. Nobody, nowhere, called for that move. If CC can show me where he suggested that move at the time, I will change my screen name to CC IS NOSTRADOMUS, shave my head, carve the initials CC into my forehead, and will henceforth regard each of his sage utterances as coming directly from the burning bush.
On defense, I’ve already shown how among Feliz, Greene, Lopez and Descalso, only the latter had a higher FPCT than Feliz playing 3B for the Cards. CC tries to avoid this by inferring that FPCT is somehow unworthy or incomplete for comparison purposes. I don’t buy that, but I’ll humor him… Range Factor ratings from Elias for 3B-men in 2010… Greene 2.93, Feliz 2.45, Lopez 2.4, and Descalso 2.1… Zone Rating (from the same source & time period)… Descalso 11.647, Feliz 9.93, Lopez 9.75 and Greene 8.071.
Summing up, in 2010 Feliz was only worse defensively than Descalso (9 starts at 3B) in FPCT & Zone Rating, and was only worse than Greene (14 total chances at the position) in Range Factor. Of course, that means that Feliz was better than Greene & Lopez in FPCT and ZR, and better than Lopez & Descalso in Range Factor.
So when CC wrote…
“Feliz was worse offensively, and worse defensively (considering range) than those that played before him and after him.”
… he was certainly wrong, and I thank him for the invitation to use statistics to prove it.
You’re turning into a wonk HB, nice job. Don’t know if you are right though. I don’t recall anyone saying Dan should be brought in to play third until it happened. Since there were, at the time, no stats on him at 3rd, the idea would have been met with confused indignation. Which is what makes it so astonishing that Tony went for it. Utter desperation I suppose when Mo’s crusted over pile didn’t smell like a rose garden. I memtioned before that the fact he isn’t playing 3b in winter league says its not an option being looked at for 2011. (Unless he’s going to do a ‘Skip’ and learn it this spring.)
bb — I saw the Descalso at 3B move as a way to get his bat in the lineup and Feliz’s out after Pedro cratered so badly in Sept. At that time Skip was hitting well playing 2B, so to get Dirty Dan playing time TLR pulled Feliz, the weakest link and a guy who obviously had no future with the Cardinals.
Expect Descalso will see time in StL this year, though whether he makes the team out of camp depends on middle IF signings and trades. He looked really good on D, got exposed a bit at the plate after some early success, but looks like he might be in line to replace Skip in 2012.
Already was a wonk, but might just be getting wonkier hanging out here…
Ref #151, RC, I am not so sure I agree with you about Ottavino. His second opinion told him surgery wasn’t needed so he pushed to pitch by the end of the season. He was activated so the Cards had to validate he was ready, though he was not used. Why wouldn’t another organization take a $25K chance to see if he is ok as is apparently believed? From his perspective, he gets the chance for a new start elsewhere and if he sticks, he loses no money.
In other words, I think the jury is still out on whether his decision not to go under the knife was good or not. It may have been his safest path in terms of money but may or may not have been for his health and career. We will have to see if it was best.
I wish I was more comfortable with the team’s overall handling of injury situations. But where there is smoke there is fire. Hope he didn’t get burned.
HB, I have taken more interest in the stats based analysis too. Mainly to be able to gain something from the discussion, rather than reach conclusions from my own stat studying. I’ll never be close to getting wonkified, keep getting cigar ash in my keyboard.
The Cards new variable, demand driven ticket pricing is going to suck. Soon, beer price will depend on how hot it is. Sometimes I think I’d rather see a losing team from the stands than a winning one on TV. That is so yesterday, I know. Still, I miss being a fixture there.
bb — Baseball and statistics go together sort of like beer and pretzels. I’ve loved the game for a long time but didn’t get into stats heavily until I started posting on sites like this a couple of years ago.
Two of the things I find attractive about TCNB is Brian’s historical/statistical articles and the number of people here who are knowledgable about SABR-metrics. It’s an area I’m interested in, though I have to admit I’m still a skeptic (or a dinosaur), depending on your point of view.
One day, I’d like to get up a discussion here about SABR vs. traditional stats, something that would be enlightening to those interested in the numbers behind baseball, no matter which side of the divide folks fall on.
AP leads the team in stolen bases…………..opposing teams know this……………why does it happen……….?????
show me with statistics……………………..
“Clearly, if they had, they wouldn’t have traded for Feliz, unless one assumes that Cards management is senseless and stupid.” >>>>> that’s not the words I would have used but I certainly dont see them as geniuses. They make plenty of mistakes. Just look at last year’s ending roster, Miles, Winn, McDougal, Feliz.
IF you want to learn how to use statistics better. I would start with the simple use of OPS over your fixation with BA. That would be start.
I think it is widely inconsistent to use stats going forward (after Feliz was acquired) rather than the entire year or stats up until that point. Unless the Cards (or you) are actually Nostradamus that would make more sense. Whose to say if Lopez had stayed in a full time roll he wouldn’t have continued to hit as he had for the year? Whose to say if Greene wasn’t given a chance to play everyday that he wouldn’t have hit better?
I was calling for Descalso to be at 2B since Spring training. He far outplayed Skip in the Spring.
Yes, Fielding percentage is an incomplete statistic. If nothing else, maybe you have come to realize that. You found a fielding stat that disputes mine. Maybe your is more accurate. Maybe mine is. What we do know is that mine is broken down to his time with the Cardinals. Given that seems to be what you want to use for hitting, wouldn’t it be consistent to use that for fielding?
Again, I am waiting for you to show me how you weight offensive and defensive stats. WAR does that whether you like it or not. It also give you a baseline for what an average AAA/AAAA player could provide in terms of production. Given Feliz was below that line (both with the Cardinals and for the year) to say that a better player could not have been found seems ludicrous.
If it is good for your ego to say I was wrong (when I wasn’t) I’m happy to contribute to your well being.
Why does Pujols lead the team in stolen bases, WC? Using statistics, I’d say that it’s because he does whatever he wants to on the basepaths 100% of the time and gets angry when runners on base try to steal while he is at the plate 95% of the time.
In all seriousness, one typically likes to see at least a 75% base stealing success rate in order to make up for the drawbacks of potentially losing a base runner. With 14 SBs in 18 attempts, Pujols ended up with a 78% success rate in 2010, which means that he probably did more good than harm. He doesn’t run very often despite leading the team in SBs (none of them run very often), so teams usually don’t see it coming.
Rasmus only went 12 for 20 (60%). Brendan Ryan went 11 for 15 (73%). Holliday went 9 for 14 (64%). Molina went 8 for 12 (67%). So I’d say that Pujols probably led the team in stolen bases, because of the regular starting players who attempted stolen bases often, he had the highest success rate.
Colby was thrown out 4, maybe 5 times on hit and runs. And my guess is that most of the other guys thrown out numbers were as a result of failed hit and runs as well. Albert and Yadi can steal when they want, nobody else has that option.
Albert does not do hit n runs.
Like I stated earlier, Colby has gotten worse at every aspect of the game, stealing bases is just one of those things. If you don’t use it you lose it. Its exactly why I stated that an Andrew McCutchen will develop better where he is than would somebody playing for TLR.
Nice rational fellas……..all good…………………… AP steals bases when no one gives a sh-t……………He knows when that is from long practice………………. attempting to take a predictable pitch away, and swat a single……….30% of the time, instead of taking the predictable walk 90% of the time……..takes practice and judgment too…………………… AP did lay low this year, until after the TDL……….. his self centered momentum after the break, changed the whole team dynamic………….when they started pitching him like AP of old, he slumped and there was no one there. No adjustments were there…………………. his gaming with BD unmade this team…………..
Jeter’s agent is starting to rag on the Yanks……………… while they depend on him so much……….he is totally dependent on them for the relevance of his abilities in fulfilling that role…………..he expects to be paid a fair share of the revenues surrounding his mystique……not just at shortstop……………….they are saying no……….we own that mystique,……….we developed that opportunity and we paid 190 million to do it last time around……………………..sound familiar……………….its coming your way………………
Justin Upton doesn’t mix well with the CG and the WB’s of AZ in their changing fan base. He is unhappy……..he is acting that out quite beyond his own emotional control……….he will be traded as a salary bail one way or another………….they just want something for him with drawing to much attention the the real issues……………. Colby is destined to be traded also I believe…………no one is biting at this point it appears………………..ownership around the league is playing the evolving dead pool………its hell out there for agents trying to make a decision before it collapses…………….. who wants to pay Derick Jeter 25 million a year????????? they are lining up right?
“AP steals bases when no one gives a sh-t”.
That should read “when no one but Albert gives a sh. . . ”
Albert’s quest for production is relentless. Doesn’t matter if it’s 12-1.
AP’s struggle to deal with some of his emotional issues are well know…………I personally called his slump of 09 after observing his reaction to Matt Holidays debut after AP all star game collapse. Called it a spiritual crisis if I recall…………………. got me booted from the El Birdos site if I recall….
to heavy for there rapid fire light weight banter…………I agree….you have to make a living……….
The point…………… Tony and BD have been struggling for a while……… Tony wasn’t around when BD exposed the gullible and vulnerable AP to the “Glen Beck” circus………………. Coming off the Cardinal collapse in Pittsburgh, Albert’s invitation to the Washington rally was looming……….. Tony stepped up to protect AP from the obvious exploitation…………Albert wanted to go……..Tony, put in a very bad position, made the condition that he would do the presentation, protecting AP from the obvious GB hyperbole………….. imagine how bad it could have been……………. instead, it just sent AP auguring into the soil of baseball mortality……………..
Point……………..it could have been just a cheap “favor” from BD to the movement that he is so involved in……………………. Tony’s interpretation and subsequent “spin” says differently……….it says that he was aware of the dangers……….of the compromise…….. and did his best to shield the Naive one……………… I know that BD is just a simple man who loves baseball. Everything he says and does just screams it………………………hey, I’m sure Tony never complained to anyone about his concerns……..it was just a rally……………………after all……….
Likewise, I’m sure TLR never had a discussion with Mo prior to the CR ambush………… I’m sure when Mo and TLR got together to “hammer out” an agreement for this years contract……nothing was said about it…………….as he left Dave to negotiate his own deal, which I’m sure you’re all aware was based on Tony’s aggravated leavings…………. This team could sign Bengie M today………..making a huge statement……….. 1yr deal with option……be perfect…….
why do you think we don’t go for that………power off the bench……experience……..gravy in every way………..?…………………..its because how it might be seen……….an indication that Mo/BD were concerned that………..AP’s camp might see it as a surrogate move to pacify Yadi at his departure…or a rejection if you will………………which suggests?????????? premeditation???????????
But what if they want to keep AP you say…….wouldn’t that encourage AP to think that they are feathering the nest……..because they need and want him…………………???????
No………….what it says it that they are worried about giving off any signal at all………..that might disturb something that has been meticulously prepared………………. maybe they’re worried AP might just grab their first symbolic offering…….thus endangering carefully laid plans………
Maybe they are in complete control at this point……………..likely………..
And for fluff…………………..Heymen says a room full of millionaires and billionaires…….. and then he goes on in an attempt to ‘chide” BD……………later directly calling him a billionaire…………..
the only place your going to read that is here…………….. BD keeps his worth on the down low….. even attributing sole ownership of this Franchise doesn’t make him a Billionaire……publicly………..
CC – First of all, let me thank you for the improved tone and for addressing me directly. I can assure you that the purpose of my part of this discussion was not to prove you wrong nor to stroke my ego. Frankly, I thought some of your earlier posts directed at me were dismissive and condescending. If I hadn’t responded to them, I’d have been unworthy of your respect or the respect of others here, which I’d like to earn. I had only two goals… to demonstrate that I’m not easily intimidated and that any discussion between us is one between two intelligent baseball fans, not a one-way lecture.
The original point in dispute was whether ‘Pedro Feliz was better than what we had’ before he was acquired. What we had at that time was Felipe Lopez, David Freese (on the DL), and Tyler Greene (on the DL August 1-16, optioned to Memphis August 17, recalled September 7). We also had options in the minors, including Reuben Gotay (a converted second baseman with 17 errors at 3B in 3A) and Daniel Descalso, whom I think we can agree was not then a serious candidate to play 3B in St. Louis.
Looking at game logs and box scores for August 1-19th, I found that during this period Lopez was 7/51 at the plate with 7 walks and no HBP. That equates to a .137 batting average and a .241 OBP. Not good. During those 14 games there were 6 errors committed at 3B, 4 by Lopez and 1 each by Miles & Craig. Miles’ error led to 4 unearned runs in an 18-4 loss to the Astros on 8/3 and one of two Lopez errors on 8/17 led to 3 unearned runs in a 3-2 loss to the Brewers. Lopez made 10 errors for the year at 3B, almost half of them in this 14 game stretch preceding the Feliz trade. Craig’s FPCT at 3B for the year was .000, muffing the one chance he had in a start on 8/15. Miles’ FPCT there in 5 games (2 starts), was .778.
Might Tyler Greene have done well at the position if given the chance to play there every day? Maybe, but we’ll never know. What we do know is that Greene hit .221 (MLB) in 2009 and .222 this year. Whatever one thinks of Feliz before acquired, once here he played well defensively, with a FPCT of .978, and hit well for 10 days before reverting to type. His .208 average for the Cards was miserable, but better than the averages Lopez/Greene in the same time period.
I’ve never argued that a better player than Feliz couldn’t have been found, I’ve only argued that we didn’t have one in our organization at the time and have demonstrated that point. If you choose not to agree, I guess that’s OK. At the very least, I’ve made an argument based on facts that is worthy of consideration.
Yes, you have made a good argument. Yhe differences in our arguments lies in the time frames involved. If you take only the early part of August as “before” than you would be correct (except for that nasty little Descalso fellow). If you take “before” as the whole year or even since Freese went down than you would not be. I prefer months over days for my sample sizes when available. I also happen to think there were many of these “replacement level players available within and out of our organization that we could have easily had that would have been better than Feliz. Management simply made a bad choice.
You have always had my respect and sorry if I was condescending – it wasn’t intentional.
Even if you dont embrace advanced statistics, I’d encourage you to at least look at using OPS which pretty mainstream these days as your baseline statistic. If you cant get yourself to do that, at least use OBP – anything but BA!. OPS gives you a better perspective of what a batter brings the table in terms of getting on base and power.
CC – In addition to questioning management’s decision to acquire Feliz, you also mention MacDougal, Winn, Miles, and might have included Suppan… all claimed off waivers and cheap upgrades over what we had, or an experiment in MacDougal’s case.
Since trading away 8 players in 2009 (Peterson, Mortensen, Wallace, Worrell, Todd, Perez, Gregerson and Duncan) for Holliday, Khalil Greene, DeRosa and Lugo… and having just one player left on the team to show for that activity, Mo has been reluctant to engage in trades. We got a compensatory draft pick for DeRosa, so that should also be considered, though it’s no immediate help. While money was likely an issue, fear of losing more talent in trade likely played a bigger role. In 2010, dumpster diving was the primary method for filling holes, with only the Ludwick-Westbrook deal as an exception.
I won’t defend MacDougal, though his live arm and stuff was probably worth a look. Bad mechanics makes for inconsistent control.
Miles and Winn essentially replaced Mather and Craig from the opening day roster and you could say Tyler Greene backfilled Freese. When Mather was sent down (after 5/27) he was hitting .208. When Craig was sent down (after April 24) he was hitting .056. He got recalled for a 1-day stint on May 31, after which his BA was .053.
Miles and Winn hit moderately well, certainly better than Craig/Mather early on. Miles hit .281 for the year and Winn .250 as a Cardinal. Neither is a great defender, and Winn was a real disappointment considering his errorless streak and reputation. He didn’t do well hitting RH either. The bottom line on them is had Mather, Craig and Tyler Greene done better, there’d have been no need to go dumpster diving.
On Descalso outplaying Skip in spring training, his .500/.722/.500 OBP/SLG/AVG caught my attention also. But he only got 18 AB’s and was a late insertion most of the games he played in, avoiding the best pitchers. He did get some late, game-changing RBI.
Skip had a miserable spring and carried it over into the first part of the regular season. I’m guessing Descalso will get a hard look for the second half of 2011 and might challenge for a starting job in 2012. We’ll have to see how he does with extended exposure to major league pitching.
CC – Accepted… I know I’m new around here and need to earn respect from the regulars.
I’m perfectly comfortable with traditional stats and don’t view SABR stats as being inherently better. Both have their uses and limitations. I don’t reject SABR out of hand, in fact, I’m interested in learning more about it. But at the same time, I don’t believe that the sun rises and sets on Bill James’ hind end, or on the hind ends of those who’ve followed in his footsteps. The search for objective knowledge about baseball is worthy, but as I’ve said before, I see no need to abandon the tried and true for the trendy and new. Traditional and SABR stats ought to be able to co-exist. In fact, many SABR stats use traditional stats as their basis.
Take OPS… the sum of two traditional stats. What does that do for you other than allow you to cite one number instead of two? To gain anything more than superficial insight you have to look at the components. If player A has an OBP of .400 and slugs .300, while player B has an OBP of .200 but slugs .500, both would have the same OPS. But players A & B are two very different animals. And if you have to refer back to the original stats to attain real meaning, what’s the point of adding them together?
The other day, someone (maybe you) told me Skip’s OPS is decreasing. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that’s bad, but what did it mean? Outside of 2010, when his numbers were down across the board, his OBP trend is up and the SLG trend down. But you wouldn’t know that without looking at OBP and SLG separately.
Next, take our discussion about Feliz’s defense. I cited FPCT, which gives a percentage of plays made without error, FPCT = 1 – (Errors/Chances). Admittedly, it doesn’t yield info about range or difficulty. You were adamant FPCT isn’t sufficient to assess fielding skill, but were apparently OK when I cited Range Factor and Zone Rating.
Range Factor = (Assists + Put Outs)/Defensive Innings. Just what in the world does that stat really say about range? In my opinion… nothing.
Zone Rating = Balls Fielded/Balls Hit Into Players Defensive Zone. This might yield range info, but neither ZR or RF address errors at all. Looking at this stat for Allen Craig, despite the fact that he made an error on his one chance at 3B, his ZR is listed as 29.000, the best rating of any of the Cards 3B-men. That’s a bad sign.
In fact, isn’t there contradiction in findings between the various new systems for measuring defense? Do stats like FanGraphs UZR differ from Baseball Reference and the Fielding Bible which all try to gauge the same thing? Doesn’t that give you concerns about accuracy and validity? It does to me.
HB: You are a breath of fresh air around here. Word of warning: there are gradations of Cards bashers around these parts.
There are few who pass the test of liking the trade for Pedro Feliz. Or the signing of Pineiro. Or the signing of Mitey Cesar Izturis. These were tough calls, not easy to like. Me: I liked the deals.
I loved the pickups of Suppan and Winn in 2010. There were a lot of doubters, but not me. Do I think Aaron Miles is an all star? No, but nothing wrong with Mo signing him in 2010. McDougle throws hard and is experienced; too bad he turned out lousy; nothing ventured, nothing gained.
As to front office effectiveness, the end result speaks for itself. Mo made two moves aimed at getting the team to post season. Both the Luddy/Westbrook trade and the Feliz/minor league guy trade had poor results. The Freese rehab injury and lack of anybody at AAA really left Mo high and dry. Pedro truly had nothing left. Ruben must really stink defensively.
I’m just curious Jumbo. Has the Cardinals organization done anything that you think was bad?
Thanks Jumbo. Reading back in the archives (still in May) I see that we agree on many things regarding the Cards. I’d say we’re both ‘glass half-full’ types. I try to be optimistic without being unrealistic in evaluating management, players and events, though obviously there are times when I fall short. But when I err, I prefer to do so giving the benefit of doubt.
Have to give you props for calling the move to upgrade pitching at the trade deadline and for accurately predicting that Ludwick would be the bait. You were way ahead of the curve there. Wish you had been wrong about Ludwick. Always liked that guy, was sorry to see him traded, though I never held it against Jake. I’m glad we re-signed him. It would have been an even more bitter pill otherwise.
Ludwick was a bargain the whole time we had him. If you can get 20+ HR, 100 RBI, great D and a plus arm for less than $6M (considerably less 2007-09), that’s great value. I’d wager we’re going to spend more than than he wins in arbitration from SD attempting to replace his production.
Gotay has been a 2Bman.
The Feliz deal was not to help the team win. It was to help wind up the season.
Crdswmn, I was disappointed when my Uncle Walter got the heave-ho, but sadly, he had earned it. Happily, Walt’s son Mo stepped up and took over.
I was disappointed when I learned TLR presses guys to play through pain when they should be at the doctors. Mo is aware of this problem and the Cards have been managing injuries better in recent years.
I was diappointed TLR behaved poorly toward Rolen. Scottie was the difference this year for the Reds.
bb — I think Mozeliak has been pretty unlucky with his signings and trades. Lohse got hurt on an HBP. Khalil wacked out after a great spring. Hard to believe that he hit clean-up on opening day. DeRosa injured three days after his acquisition. Freese missed all but 3 months of the last two seasons. Glaus missing most of ’09. Hard to predict injuries, though maybe he might have picked up some scuttlebutt on Greene with Freese in coming from SD.
Forgot to mention Penny. That was a gamble he knew about and took. Too bad he rolled snake eyes on that one.
I read between the lines of the PR BS that went on after the Ludwick trade. Ludwick was as good as gone anyway because he was not one of TLR’s guys. If he had not been traded he would not have been back with the Cards in 2011. Just like we won’t be seeing Brendan Ryan in a Cardinal uniform again. Colby may be the only one saved but I am sure it won’t be for lack of TLR trying.
HB: Khalil was wacko in San Diego. The Cards took a gamble he could get it together after a change of scenery. This did not pan out, but it was not bad luck.
Giving Lohse a 4 year deal could be second guessed. Yes his HBP was bad luck, but if you give a guy a long term deal, bad luck has longer consequences.
Its hard to say if Glaus was bad luck or poor medical diagnosis.
Freese’s foot was first injured with the Cards in a highway accident. It was not a pre-existing condition in San Diego, as with Khalil.
Crdswmn, Ludwick was traded not because of personality conflicts, but because of money.
Ludwick was popular. He played good D, so Tony liked him. It probably bugged TLR to part with Luddy. However, the Cards wanted a pitcher, Westbrook, whose salary was $11MM. The only way to add Westbrook was to save money by getting rid of Ludwick’s contract.
“The Feliz deal was not to help the team win. It was to help wind up the season.”
Something to help win would have come in handy in mid August. Walt must have been happy to see Mo wave the white flag.
Bling, I agree a 3Bman to help win would have come in handy during August. Feliz is worthless, but this did help land him for just an A level reliever (and get him through waivers since past the trade deadline). His badness made him available.
A fair question is what would have been the trade price for a good 3Bman, during July? However, at that time, Freese was thought on track to return. Once Freese went down again, the Cards were in a world of hurt, so hurt that even Feliz was worth adding.
No satisfactory high cost 3Bmen were moved during August, within MLB, IIRC. If someone had been released or available in a waiver-transaction, the Cards would likely have released Lopez or Feliz, and employed this other guy. Unfortunately, he did not exist.
Well Jumbo, that’s the story the Cards media lapdogs…. I mean PR people —-put out. I’m sure you are happy to believe that.
In all fairness Jumbo, I am sure money did play a small part. I don’t believe for a NY minute that TLR shed any tears (except maybe crocodile ones) at Luddy’s departure. TLR and Luddy didn’t get along. That is the death knell for any Cardinal player. He would not have been back in 2011.
Word for the day… cynicism. 1. An attitude of scornful or jaded negativity, especially a general distrust of the integrity or professed motives of others. 2. A Greek philosophy of the 4th century B.C. advocating the doctrine that virtue is the only good, that the essence of virtue is self-control and individual freedom, and that surrender to any external influence is beneath the dignity of man. [From the Free Online Dictionary].
Yeah that’s me. It is a healthy cynicism too. I could give you another word for the day.
Gullible…….Easily deceived or duped. I read everything the PD puts out with a healthy dose of skepticism. The Cards PR people also. I mean they have no reason to lie or mislead now do they? I do not accept everything at face value. I question. I observe and draw my own conclusions. Too bad many other people don’t do the same and I am not just talking baseball.
Crdswmn, Mo scouted Ludwick for the 1999 draft which he headed. He liked him, so sought him when a AAA free agent from the Mud Hens, told him to cut down the Ks and he might earn a chance. Luddy hit well at Memphis and got his chance. It must have been during the 2007 season.
Ludwick’s brother Erik pitched for the Cards in the mid-1990s. They are part of the Cards alumni “family”, even though we had to trade each for business reasons. When I predicted Ludwick would be traded, it was on monetary grounds and my guess turned out to be right, though the trade target was wrong (Oswalt versus Westbrook).
Brendan Ryan is an ok SS when at the top of his game. This year he slumped badly. The Cards may not want to stay status quo, since they will be bashed by fans if Ryan repeats his 2010 during 2011. They want to shuffle the deck. But if they cannot find another SS, Ryan will be back in 2011. If so, he will say he is happy to get another chance and TLR will say he is rooting for a bounceback by Ryan.
I know the history Jumbo. That tells us one thing–history. BTW I never said MO didn’t like Luddy. I didn’t say MO didn’t like Brendan either.
Yes, Jumbo Tony says all the right things which of course automatically proves he means them.
Crdswmn, TLR is very competitive and a driver. His focus tends to be short-term and realistic.
Ludwick was asking for more playing time. His appeal did not cause his trade, rather the Cards had several people to put in right mading the position one of depth and they could part with the most expensive player.
Descalso can use more AAA seasoning. Skip will begin the 2011 season at 2B, because under contract and we do not want to waste $$$ as we did by cutting loose Kennedy. Waste not, want not. Frugality is the new black.
Another word… skepticism 1. A doubting or questioning attitude or state of mind; dubiety. 2. Philosphy a. The ancient school of Pyrrho of Elis that stressed the uncertainty of our beliefs in order to oppose dogmatism. b. The doctrine that absolute knowledge is impossible, either in a particular domain or in general. c. A methodology based on an assumption of doubt with the aim of acquiring approximate or relative certainty.
This is the philosophy that best describe my approach to many things and I gave a pretty solid demonstration of it above, discussing SABR metrics with CC. As opposed to cynics, skeptics also doubt and question but without negativity, scorn, or general distrust of the integrity of others.
HB, people are different and get to be themselves. Crdswmn got vexed this season, she liked Ryan, dislikes Skip’s fielding like most folks. If she wants to blame the manager, she gets to decide.
Eric Ludwick was part of the deal that brought Big Mac to St. Louis.
On the Ludwick-Westbrook deal… at the time, I had the impression that neither TLR or the guys in the clubhouse were very happy about the trade. It might well have been a another indication of the ongoing organizational struggle between the Luhnow camp and the field staff… with TLR prefering veterans like Ludwick and Luhnow pushing for his draft picks & farm hands to get a shot.
The trade solidified Jay’s role as a starter and gave Craig more playing time as well when Jay faded at the plate late in the year. Ludwick had just come off the DL and got into only six games before being banished to SD. His last act as a Cardinal was to double and score the winning run in the bottom of the 10th in a 1-0 win over the Pirates. That guy was clutch and a class act all the way.
If you look at the whole year, there seemed to be a disposition by the FO to fill the team up with rookies and farm hands… Craig, Stavinoha, Mather on the bench, Freese starting at 3B, etc. I saw the Ludwick trade giving Jay/Craig more playing time as a continuation of that theme.
Ludwick was interviewed on FSM after the trade, when SD came to town. He was asked specifically about any issues between him and TLR. He denied that there was any difficulty and had nothing but good things to say about his time as a Cardinal. Does that mean there was absolutely no problem? No, but he had a platform to air it out if there was and declined to use it.
Jumbo — I agree with that. My words of the day are food for thought, not criticism.
Texas……………………….if you found yourself in a room with Socrates and Galileo………. and you had a book of Hubble Telescope pictures …….. and a few volumes of philosophy from Sartre, Hegel, Kant,
and you familiarized yourself with there content……………………you would be the smartest man in the room…………………………………………… for at least 10 minutes………………….. after that magic 10…….you would become no less than their equals………………………………but, you might find after a time, that they would likely excuse themselves and wonder away in search of the mystery………………..
Use some of your gifts to extemporize on the design elements of the new stadium…….and how that will apply to “floating ticket prices”. Maybe Crd will help you………….
“Votto was a near-unanimous pick over Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols in winning this year’s NL MVP, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced Monday. He received 31 of the 32 first-place votes, with three-time winner Pujols getting the other.”
Bet it would interesting to know who tried to hang the jury………………………. what is the world coming to……………………….
I don’t agree that skepticism includes only doubt and not mistrust of one’s motives HB. I don’t know any of the Cards media so I can’t say I dislike them but I can say I question their motives sometimes. TLR I have had the opportunity to observe on many occasions and I can read through his body language, tone of voice, etc his deception and obfuscation when it occurs. I formed my opinion of him based on observation and deduction. I cannot do the same with the media.
Jumbo, do you really believe players say how they truly feel to the media?
That last comment was for you too HB. No way Ludwick would air any grievances in the media
“TLR I have had the opportunity to observe on many occasions and I can read through his body language, tone of voice, etc his deception and obfuscation when it occurs. I formed my opinion of him based on observation and deduction. I cannot do the same with the media.”
I’m not a Tony fan for a few reasons CRD………………. However, I do not question his sincerity or honesty…………… He has grasped at this game for his self esteem and livelihood for a good long time……………………..if anything the stresses he’s under these last 5 yrs should reveal things to you about the nature of that environment………………………….. I think you will gain respect for him in his martyrdom…………… It will start sooner than later if you and Tex do a little research………….you will find it illuminating.
“It’s unclear how long the Reds would like to lock Votto up for, but he has set himself up to earn over $30MM for his three arbitration seasons. Agent Dan Lozano could compare his free agent value to that of Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez, so Votto will be expensive to sign long-term.”
Look who is starting to turn up in interesting places………………. If Votto signs a 5yr deal……the two years beyond arbitration eligible should be interesting……….and revealing……….Lozano would help himself if he forced some large numbers out of Walter. I wonder if Walter would be helping himself by putting up a “distracting number”. Phillie’s did it.
WC—If you are trying to get me to feel sorry for TLR you will fail.
crdswmn — Well, Ludwick had the opportunity to say it, or even just hint at it, and did no such thing. He said he loved every minute he spent as a Cardinal, and I’ll take his word for it over the viscous rumor mill any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.
Westy — I already respect TLR. Don’t like everything he does, but you can’t argue with his record as a winner… which is indisputable. Twelve winning seasons out of 15 in StL and as many WS wins as a Cards manager than anyone but Billy Southworth.
Coaching is often a complex negotiation…………. coaching only gifted athletes is completely different……………..coaching rich gifted athletes is off the charts……………combine all of them and you have a very interesting interview for a coaching job……………. Tony hasn’t had it his way here…
The Chris Duncan fiasco was almost a statement of contempt for the decisions BD/Mo had made.
The only reason he wasn’t fired was simply economics…… fire Tony….loose Dave….compromise your rotation investment…………loose the trap set for the AP which will set many precedents going forward……….. at one point I was sure that he was going to be fired………… I had to re access BD’s position…….an education to be sure………
The reason you want to research the stadium………is so you will have an intellectual framework for understand the nature of the beast………….. and the wonderful mind of a true business man.
MLBTR says Reds to sign Dontrelle Willis to a minor league deal. Good luck with that!
Midnight tonight is the deadline for teams to determine whether or not to offer arbitration to their free agents. A week after that is the deadline for players offered arbitration to accept or decline it.
Of known targets for the Cardinals, Juan Uribe (type B) is expected to be offered arbitration by the Giants. Miguel Tejada (type A) is not expected to be offered arbitration by the Padres. Mozeliak will know more about what it would cost him, in draft picks, to acquire either of these two SS by the end of the day. Both made less than $4M last year.
MLBTR also says the Cards have interest in Jason Bartlett of the Rays, another SS. He is not a free agent until 2012, made $4M last year and might make up to $5M this year after arby.
Even if the Cards get a new SS, I hope they’ll keep Ryan. He’d be a better backup/spot-starter than Greene, though a bit more expensive (not much). And you never know, he might just rebound from last year. Keeping him makes sense as we like can’t get return value for him in trade that matches his defensive skils.
Plus, it would make crdswmn happy…
A seemingly-minor point HB, but FOX Sports reported the Cardinals’ interest in Bartlett. MLBTR echoed it.
Brian — You’re right. When I said MLBTR, that was just reflecting where I read it. They did give credit to FOX Sports as their source.
Bartlett had a down year offensively in 2010, but maybe he will rebound…………
BTW, that last comment was sarcasm. Is there an emoticon for that? I could really use it.
Bartlett is a good kid. He is not the solution……………….. Look at it this way. There is nothing wrong with BR that a completely new approach at the plate couldn’t improve………….. that being so obvious………..the real issue is why not………??? The decisions need to be taken out of his hands… Watch,……….if he is traded………they completely rework his stance……..and sober his expectation of being Cal Ripken at the plate.
crdswmn — I’m just happy there is no emoticon for the ‘one-fingered salute’. I’m afraid you might over-use it here to the detriment of general decorum.
Especially when referring to your favorite manager… TLR!
.!..
bb — Belive it or not, I found that such a thing actually exists. Google middle finger emoticons, and please… don’t tell crdswmn!!!!
Not to worry HB, Brian doesn’t allow any nonsense around here.
Brian knows I would never do that HB. I do have limits.
crdswmn – I know… just teasing you.