Is it better for a team to spend its entire payroll budget early or hold some in reserve?
In a recent Post-Dispatch article, some of the subjects allegedly discussed during the St. Louis Cardinals’ post-season organizational meetings were disclosed.
One item on the table was the concept of “dry powder,” holding financial reserves for mid-season trades to bolster the club down the stretch.
Manager Tony La Russa is reportedly in favor of a change in approach, instead wanting to deploy the funds during the prior off-season, rather than waiting to do so during the summer. The article states there was only one major “dry powder” move in the last four years, the acquisition of Matt Holliday, overlooking the earlier Mark DeRosa trade.
Another argument cited in support of La Russa’s position was the early-season injuries to Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, which proved to be difficult to diagnose in terms of a return time for each. It took the team from May until the end of July, when Jake Westbrook was acquired, to address the need externally. Even then, the deal was apparently neutral financially, so it would seem no powder was deployed. Other in-season additions were minimum-salaried scrap-heapers like Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan and Mike MacDougal.
I’ve been thinking about this, seeing benefits in each approach.
- Positive for non-dry powder: Set roster early with the best team possible and run with it.
- Negative for non-dry powder: No money to address emerging needs later.
- Negative for dry powder: May wait for help that never comes or be unable to find the right players.
- Positive for dry powder: It can generate in-season momentum, if used.
Let me explain my last point, one that was not made in the Post-Dispatch article. If the team plays well enough to contend, making a notable July addition provides momentum in at least two ways.
During the heat of the summer, it reinforces to the team that ownership is willing to step up to help them and to their fans that they are behind the club. It also puts pressure on their competitors to respond in kind and if they don’t, it might generate internal feelings of doubt within the enemy camp.
For those reasons, I still favor keeping some flexibility to make moves during the season.
How do you see it?
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Better to have some dry powder available to use if the need arises and you have the chance.Very foolish to think that you can spend all now and not have anything left in case of a need happening.
Like you wrote.there are multiple sides and possobly no perfect answer IMO.
Committing every available dollar to fixed payments (such as a mortgage, car payment(s), food, etc.) doesn’t make much sense for a family either.
Regardless of what they decide to do, I think Mozeliak and company would be wise to eschew giving their plans nicknames or catchy descriptions. How quickly did folks pick up on the “dry powder” and “low-hanging fruit” comments and use them against the Cardinals? Nevermind whether that’s an accurate way to describe the approach – just say that you’re holding some available payroll in reserve. Stop trying to be so cute and just be direct.
My two cents, anyway.
I actually agree completely, PHE.
Seems to me both DeRosa and Holliday were acquired not with financial reserves but with prospects so it doesn’t seem to me that saving for a pickup at mid season has proven to be successful.
I believe the team has had this dry powder approach for at least two years now and its worked out like a lead balloon. I say go out and get what you believe to be the best players to set your team up to compete from the beginning. If injuries pop up then you fall back on the minor leagues to help you stay afloat.
I for one don’t have much confidence in the Cardinals actually being able to acquire anyone that would actually be of much help at mid season using financial reserves.
The only additions of any consequence have been made via the trade route. The mid seasons raiding of the waiver wire has not been productive imo.
I understand your point, RC, but are you suggesting we also acquire a starting third baseman this winter, for example?
After the season they had in 2010 I’m all for building the best team from the beginning. Come out swinging and never look back.
Our team was built just fine aside from starting Skip…and that can be easily rectified this winter.
Regarding comment #6 Easton.
I know you have written of your desire for the Cards to obtain Oralando Hudson to fill the hole at 2B.I think he will be too pricey.How about Juan Uribe.He`s younger than Hudson,hits for more power,a little les defense,and will cost about 4 to 6 million.
Another option could be Criostian Guzman.he had some issues in Texas though.All in all the 2B free agent list is full of older declining veterans (Belliard,Eckstein,Kennedy,Cora,Hairston,Kaz Matsui,Punto) none who look like more than a short term slsolution IMO.
I am not sure Uribe will be significantly cheaper than Orlando Hudson. Hudson signed a one year $5MM deal last year and I am not sure he played himself into significant raise consideration.
Looking at the main 4 free agent 2B players.
Starting to agree about Hudson.
1.Hudson-good glove still,decent OBP skills.
2.Uribe-offers more power,less glove and OBP
3.Cristian Guzman-switch hitter with so-so defense
4.Eckstein-all heart and hustle with declining skills.
RC, ref comment #5, the Cards added something like $6-8M in salary commitment for the remainder of 2009 when acquiring DeRosa and Holliday mid-season. (I could look up the exact amount, but that is not crucial here.) I agree that the cost of acquisition was prospects, but the dry powder is what paid their salaries once there.
PHE, I doubt the Cards planned for their catch phrases to be used against them like we all have done, myself included. I agree they could be more careful with their phrasing, but the facts are what they are with whatever label is applied. I guess what I am trying to say is that if I had to choose one, I’d rather have a bad name with good results than the opposite.
Well Easton, I do think it is a pretty big gamble to believe Freese can come back and actually last for an extended period of time before something bad happens with an ankle or two. So yes, it would seem to me to be a safe play to have a reliable starting 3B on the team from the jump. Now I say this but I have no idea what kind of money Mo has to work with in 2011. But with my monopoly money I would secure a good 3B.
If David comes back and is a healthy David Freese then you don’t need a 3B, but if he breaks again, its groundhog day all over again.
Now any player can get hurt during a 162 game schedule, but when you have had both ankles injured ie broke/ligament damage, its a safe bet to assume that that player will have ankle issues again.
It seems like every player that has had question marks regarding a body part these last few years has actually been hurt at some point during the season. So the plan of gambling on health has not worked out good to this point.
Now all that being said, the Cards can basically upgrade the offense at 3 spots….3B, 2B, and RF. In my opinion it would provide extreme optimism to enter the season with at least 2 of the 3 positions with good players slotted in there. Then take the approach that you are gonna fill with players from your minor league system if injuries occur. Depending on which ones you filled you have the players to fill in, in case things fall apart. Freese, Carpenter, Descalso, and Greene could fill in at the INF spots. Jay and Craig in the OF spots.
So, based on whatever information you have personally, you think it is unwise to expect Freese to play opening day?
Is it a hunch or do you have reason to believe that?
I don’t see us improving at 3rd or RF unless something falls into our laps (an inexpesive Tejada, Ordonez, etc.).
tony will get his wish. the perceived dry powder will be spent this offseason, but it will be due to the scheduled negotiations with albert.
best guess, stl will renew their “commitment to winning” with $ players added to the roster short term, before engaging the AP camp.
recent attendance figures suggest they can take this position short term, even if it isn’t the most desired approach long term.
spending heavily early, also positions stl to bargain against re-writing his 2011 amount, and writing a true extension beyond his existing contract.
No Easton, I don’t have any personal information on Freese. He most likely will be playing opening day for the Cards.
My dealings with wrists and ankles are such that you don’t bounce back quickly from either. At least with the wrist you can stay off of it and rest it. An ankle is such that they are babied and then once you start going all out….bang….and injury again.
But both of those joint areas are long to heal when injured and many never heal 100%. I hope David does, but to go into the year assuming that is a sure thing seems to put the club in a similar spot to where they were last year.
I’ve stated that as well Easton, that you will most likely see a 2011 team that closely resembles a 2010 team. I seriously doubt that the cards do anything but hope David returns healthy from the ankle injury, that Brendan bounces back from the wrist injury, that Skip bounces back from his injury, I believe it was a wrist as well. I’m just not so sure TLR would want to part with Skip as his 2B, so unless Mo goes out on a limb and gets Orlando, I wouldn’t expect much of a change.
Not disagreeing with bip’s points, but perhaps with the cause and effect suggested. I don’t see the impending Pujols situation affecting dry powder plans for 2011. In other words, I wouldn’t think that Pujols is expecting his 2011 deal to be renegotiated upward. If anything, the Cards would be motivated to try to defer more, but by far the most likely scenario, IMO, is to leave Pujols’ 2011 deal alone no matter what else is happening.
Brian, regarding #12, I’m pretty sure we got a chunk of cash in the Holliday deal so we didn’t up our cash outlays near that much.
I don’t expect (or think we need) wholesale changes. I do, however, expect Skip to be replaced. If he is not, I will be disappointed.
It may happen BIP, but it would surprise me if Mo went out and made any significant additions.
I don’t envy Mo in regards to dealing with this AP issue. Elbow issues, leg issues this past year, getting older. Its a tough call to make.
The easy call would have been to trade him for a boat load of players and prospects. Now they are in the tough position of having to sign him for whatever he wants. Albert has not made many errors in anything to do with his career. Leading the club to believe he would negotiate a deal until he was a 10/5 player and then closing them off until he becomes a free agent or the club gives him the massive contract was another great move by Albert and his agent. This is big business for sure.
If we begin the season without Albert under contract beyond the year, it will be a horribly uncomfortable season, regardless of on-field results.
Not so, CC. I hate you making me look it up.
Putting aside the question of whether or not Oakland paying any of Holliday’s salary was really an offset of Wallace’s signing bonus, the Cards took on almost $4M for Holliday in 2009.
“A’s to pay $1.5M of approximately $5.385M remaining of 2009 salary” (taken from Cot’s)
DeRosa made $5.5M in 2009, with another $50K for being traded. I don’t recall anything that said StL didn’t pay all of the remaining salary, which would have been another $3M or so. (His trade was earlier, in June.)
Easton, I believe changing out Skip is the easy play for Mo to upgrade, but I don’t think that move is a TLR fav. So again, we will just have to watch and see who wins out in this thing. It will be fun to watch.
First you have to decide if you believe the Cardinal’s rhetoric about payroll and dry powder to begin with. I stopped long ago (2007?) when they said they had x for payroll, didn’t spend it at the beginning, said they would spend it for acquisitions and didn’t. It was a sizable chunk (like $8 million). We had the leak to the press after 2009 that payroll would go up to around $108 million. The financial crisis hit and we haven’t seen talk of anywhere near that number even though baseball revenues appear to be up not down.
The problem is that it appears that any mid-season acquisition worth acquiring seems to take prospects that we don’t have to spare. In that context, what good does it do to have dry powder $$$ if you dont have the dry powder prospects to go with them.
CC, RC also made the prospects point earlier. I agree to a point, but I also don’t believe what I have read that the entire system is supposedly barren in terms of trade prospects. There are other Mortensens, Robinsons, Todds and maybe even Perezes, though fewer Wallaces.
BW–sounds like you are repeating me. possibly because i wrote so poorly, my meaning was lost.
if stl spends it’s dry powder early, and maxes out the budget before engaging AP, they accomplish two things…….
1) shown AP the “commitment to winning” by adding multiple players of salary (westbrook, uribe, hudson, hello 100mil).
2) put themselves in a position where they can tell the AP camp, we’re busted, no more $ for 2011. we can write you a 2012 and beyond extension, with the pujols 16mil 2011 bargain, staying in place.
is there a better position to be in, if stl truly wants to extend AP?
We would make an excellent trade partner for a team looking for relievers (Arizona, Florida, etc.) whether now or mid-season.
Outside of that (and Shelby, who I can’t see us moving), not much.
I agree CC, after the recent years of trading away prospects for basically nothing, there is not much to trade away that most would want.
Which leads me back to there isn’t really much that can be done unless the Cards are willing to up the payroll. ITs gonna be hard to make a mid season trade without anyone to trade.
So Mo will be left to picking up the scraps from the throw away bucket.
bip, we are mostly in agreement. I just don’t think that getting more money in 2011 is a big issue for Albert, though.
Unless the Cards are gonna go way high like they did with Holliday, there is no need for Albert to do anything but wait at this point. Why sign a sweetheart deal this early? He can sign a sweetheart deal anytime if thats what he wants to do. The only reason for Albert to sign early is if the Cards knock his socks off with a record breaking contract.
Before he got to 10/5 status Mo should have thrown a deal at him and said this is the top offer coming from us, if you refuse this you will be dealt.
He would have forced Albert to lose the PR war if Albert had turned them down. As it stands Albert is is the cat bird seat with the fans saying give him what he wants, he is the best player in the land. Bad spot for Mo at this point.
People said the Phillies were making a bad deal when they signed Howard.
Ruben will come out looking like a genius because he forced a number higher than 25 million on the Pujols deal. And folks will most likely look back and say ol Rub saved money by signing Ryan before Alberts deal.
I know Amaro is your pal, RC, but many think he overpaid for Howard. I agree.
(P.S. I agree with you on the Albert comments above.)
I don’t care what Albert gets from us or elsewhere. Paying Ryan Howard that much money will never look like a good deal.
i don’t know what AP wants either, but that’s not the primary reason for spending the dry powder early. the FO showing “we want to win badly too” is the primary goal before going to the table, with the added benefit of……”we can’t re-write 2011″.
now it comes down to the $ albert wants per and length of contract. the focus is now on albert’s $/yr wishes, not a lack of commitment to winning by the stl FO. the FO can not let the AP camp play that card as the reason he won’t extend, the PR fallout would be huge.
spend the dry powder early, and show AP you’ve done all your budget allows, is the position i hope stl takes this offseason.
if we get AP re-signed, “dry powder” may be a past luxury
You worry me Brian…………….. Correct title should be “And it Begins”. RC is pushing up hill, with the Brazilian telling it like it is…………..the rest is just pablum………….. Tony “begins” to attack the rhetoric.
After 3 million………the tickets are free…………..right!
Mather was interesting enough to join the 40 man of a playoff team………..he at least should have brought in some “colored beads”.
Westy
So what did Mather bring to the table for this Cards team? He has been passed by by Craig and Jay and Stavinoha.He has not regained his lost power and he is 28 years old.I wish him luck and i fail to see the big loss.
Then again the Braves OF was so awful they just flat out cut Melky Cabrera……….Ankeil long gone option declined.Braves dumpster driving and hoping for a lucky strike.
Braves doing the same thing Cards get cricified for;
I agree with BIP. Spend the money now, and sign Albert. Then again, I don’t know what I am talking about half the time.
Bw52 – Mather brought a RH power bat that can play all 3 OF positions as well as the corners (plus he can pitch
) That assumes his wrist is healthy. Is it? I can’t say, but if it is we may regret this. If not, no one will remember it.
Sparky Anderson died.
That’s how warriors die Crd…………… the know when the battle is over.
Its not about that 52……………..Mather was never asked to be more than a guy that could cover a number of high profile position………..for cheap…………since most of them required the “illusion of power” which is just Cardinal hype…………no effort was made to make him a more complete player. Craig is the great example of this…………..he dominated AAA………………he can’t take a position up here when handed to him…………….his game is incomplete………….. this is and has been the argument between Major and minor league preparation in both pitching and field play. It has been pointed out in this thread………players that look good………..opposed to investments that someone is pushing into (Fab Egg) status………….. everyone likes puppies………not everyone likes a puppy mill…………..or its products……….
This thread is no more than a subtle way of controlling the dialog surrounding the “dry powder” blunder by BD the 3rd…………for it or against it……….polarizing and miss informing. Brian is polling for someone………..
Tony is hanging by a thread………….one aspect of AP/Tony tactic’s for the last three years, is encouraging the organization to show some initiative in the winter……. because of last years hostilities ending up at Dr Andrews……and resulting in the “predestined” MH purchase. Tony has done little more than apologize for their non-moves…..the “can’t find the right deal” moves……….. the Adam Kennedy/Skip albatross still hanging around his neck………………….
the Mather wavier just shows how disengaged Mo is from meaningful dialog with other teams……..no on is taking him seriously because they know he is just a shill. …………………….
Mather was worth something…………but not more than the appearance that Mo is in control………this has happened a number of times………..it isn’t about baseball…………its about attempting to stay below the radar of public perception/opinion………..trying to fulfill a business plan.
A moment of silence noting the passing of Sparky Anderson, one of only two managers in the history of the game to win a World Series in both leagues.
The other? Our very own TLR!
WC, I am both flattered and disturbed at the same time (not an easy combo to achieve) if you really think what I say or post is as an agent for anyone. Not everyone is in a conspiracy against others.
What ever is this definition of a conspiracy……………… I’m watching the SF Giants victory parade…… SF ownership apparently were part of a” conspiracy” to overcame some bad contracts and play for the golden ring………………it cost some money…..all the talent wasn’t home grown……they weren’t worrying about what there moves, “appeared to represent”…………….. You heard that Tony questioned organizational commitments by evoking the “dry powder” analogy ( joke)…………………… or was he more direct……….his words/ your words……..whose words?
You are enjoying more access……….I am not naive…………. I know who you’re dealing with……….I can guess at some of the parameters for granting access……………….. my opinion, you deserve it for good coverage.
Tony is going to become an abrasive……….cover it……………
On the ‘dry powder’ debate, count me among those who think it’s wise to keep some level of resources in reserve to deal with the inevitable issues/opportunities that arise in the course of a season. But I’d keep that reserve modest, spending 70-80% now and keeping 20-30% for contingencies.
Obvious team needs are a 5th starter and a LH specialist to replace Reyes. Mozeliak seems to be comfortable with the idea of a RF platoon using Craig/Jay, but seeks upgrades at 2 of the 3 infield positions… 2B, SS, or 3B. The bench could use some attention as well.
Agree with RC and Jumbo that we need an insurance policy for Freese at 3B, who has given us exactly 2 months of healthy play in the past two seasons. It would be unwise, IMO, to assume he’ll be able to give us a full year in 2011. Fine if he does, but better to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
It would be difficult to replace Ryan’s defense at SS. Although his offense was severely lame in 2010, one hopes his wrist surgery was the root cause and he can rebound this year to hit at least .260-.270. His defense is a key skill on a team with a pitch-to-contact strategy.
I disagree with easton who says replacing Skip with Hudson is sufficient, both on the wisdom of depending on Fragile Freese and with Hudson being a substantial upgrade over Skip.
Here’s a stats comparison of Skip vs. Hudson, averaged over the last 3 years. I’ve chosen that time period for currency and as it represents a time when both were starters. Keep in mind that Skip played RF in 2008, while Hudson has never played any position other than 2B in MLB. That skews the two defensive stats listed a little in Skip’s favor.
Read as category (Schumaker/Hudson): At Bats (516/485); Batting Average (.290/.285); OBP (.350/.354); Slugging (.379/.413); Strike Outs (64/83); Walks (48/51); RBI (41/47); Runs (79/69); Hits (150/138); Doubles (25/29); Home Runs (6/8); Stolen Bases (5/7); Errors (9/8); Fielding Percentage (.982/.985); and 2010 salary ($2M/$5M).
Skip is due $2.7M this year while Hudson’s price as a free agent is TBD. Question is, does a player who is likely to cost twice as much bring twice the value? On average over the last 3 years Hudson offered a .004 higher OBP and slugged .034 higher; with 4 more walks, 6 more RBI, 4 more doubles, 2 more HR, 2 more stolen bases, 1 less error, and a .003 higher fielding percentage. At the same time he averaged 31 less AB’s, 19 more strike outs, 10 less runs, 12 fewer hits, and a .005 lower batting average.
No doubt, Skip has weaknesses as a player… limited range, 16 errors last year and doesn’t have ideal speed for a leadoff hitter. Add in his struggles with the bat in the first two months of 2010 and need to be platooned facing LHP.
Given all that, is Hudson worth almost twice the money?
On the ‘dry powder’ debate, count me among those who think it’s wise to keep some level of resources in reserve to deal with the inevitable issues/opportunities that arise in the course of a season. But I’d keep that reserve modest, spending 70-80% now and keeping 20-30% for contingencies.
Obvious team needs are a 5th starter and a LH specialist to replace Reyes. Mozeliak seems to be comfortable with the idea of a RF platoon using Craig/Jay, but seeks upgrades at 2 of the 3 infield positions… 2B, SS, or 3B. The bench could use some attention as well.
Agree with RC and Jumbo that we need an insurance policy for Freese at 3B, who has given us exactly 2 months of healthy play in the past two seasons. It would be unwise, IMO, to assume he’ll be able to give us a full year in 2011. Fine if he does, but better to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
It would be difficult to replace Ryan’s defense at SS. Although his offense was severely lame in 2010, one hopes his wrist surgery was the root cause and he can rebound this year to hit at least .260-.270. His defense is a key skill on a team with a pitch-to-contact strategy.
I disagree with easton who says replacing Skip with Hudson is sufficient, both on the wisdom of depending on Fragile Freese and with Hudson being a substantial upgrade over Skip.
Here’s a stats comparison of Skip vs. Hudson, averaged over the last 3 years. I’ve chosen that time period for currency and as it represents a time when both were starters. Keep in mind that Skip played RF in 2008, while Hudson has never played any position other than 2B in MLB. That skews the two defensive stats listed a little in Skip’s favor.
Read as category (Schumaker/Hudson): At Bats (516/485); Batting Average (.290/.285); OBP (.350/.354); Slugging (.379/.413); Strike Outs (64/83); Walks (48/51); RBI (41/47); Runs (79/69); Hits (150/138); Doubles (25/29); Home Runs (6/8); Stolen Bases (5/7); Errors (9/8); Fielding Percentage (.982/.985); and 2010 salary ($2M/$5M).
Skip is due $2.7M this year while Hudson’s price as a free agent is TBD. Question is, does a player who is likely to cost twice as much bring twice the value? On average over the last 3 years Hudson offered a .004 higher OBP and slugged .034 higher; with 4 more walks, 6 more RBI, 4 more doubles, 2 more HR, 2 more stolen bases, 1 less error, and a .003 higher fielding percentage. At the same time he averaged 31 less AB’s, 19 more strike outs, 10 less runs, 12 fewer hits, and a .005 lower batting average.
No doubt, Skip has weaknesses as a player… limited range, 16 errors last year and doesn’t have ideal speed for a leadoff hitter. Add in his struggles with the bat in the first two months of 2010 and need to be platooned facing LHP. Although I haven’t seen him play as much, I’m assuming Hudson is a superior defender and possesses more speed.
Mather is a 28 year old OF who has not regained his power .Why all the Mather love?
Too many read too much in every little move.Who would give up anything for a guy who will be lucky to make the Braves as a reserve.Some are blinded by the tin foil brigade.
Bw, it’s been politically correct to fawn over Mather for several years. La-la land, IMO.
I like him though, and wish him well.
Brian — I posted something (twice) that isn’t showing up. Any ideas? If trapped in purgatory somewhere I’d appreciate a ‘get out of jail free’ card for one of them…
52……..you are way out of your league here……….hardly even penetrating this dialog. Stay out of trouble.
If there is access anywhere………be sure to check out the Giants victory celebration. …………it has everything………….from Schwarzenegger to Huff taking off his thong (Zoolander style)………Nice energy.
Westy you are full of hot air and nonsense 90% of the time.Sometimes a pile of crap is just a pile of crap.No more no less.
IYou say i am missing the pioint……..i say you are off on another magical mystery tour in the catacombs between your ears.Say no to drugs Westy.
Here’s some video of the Giants, including the thong.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Giants-Huff-channels-Zoolander-whips-out-Ral;_ylt=AkyOuwZSNDbwhkC.XB4sn4ERvLYF?urn=mlb-282373
the bench welcomes you…………….. enjoy…………..
HB and Bw: thanks for your public service in riding herd on this bunch.
Westie: thanks for those “……….”es. Tres mellow.
I can’t see where the Cards needed to open up another spot on the 40 man right now. They could have removed Mather any time, if the need arose. With Mather gone, we are down to 33 I believe.
As to the dry powder question. I’m against it, and not just because of the unsatisfactory results the last couple years. You have to field the best team you possibly can every day, including opening day. A game you don’t win in May is just as big as a game you don’t win in August.
thanks for agreeing to keek him company Jumbo……….it was good to see you again. I’m sure you will return.
But BB, I’m sure since they used the waiver…..instead of out right release…..they will pull him back and try to get something for him………………………….oh! His deadline was up BB. They had to make a move…………….he was hitting minor league FA………..no longer useful for any slight of hand campaign ……..
I could care less about JM……….. he is just another example of how insulated Mo/BD are. He had value to them as 3rd baseman candidate recently……………he has value to someone else apparently…………… the disparity between the two screams “problem”. Most organization now circle this mess like buzzards, waiting for the excess cookie dough to fall from the mysterious shaped cookie cutter (talent evaluation) being used here.
The Braves offed Boyer in our direction when he fell violently from grace in Atlanta………..we threw in the Astronaut, who road a spot as rule five gold on the 25 man all of 08…………. We took on salary……..and they got ??????? the garbage………they didn’t ask for him………..we gave him as a gift……..Bobby Cox in an interview, “oh yeah, I guess we got a player in the deal”…………….
We had player to named money with Boston………..on CDunc………..apparently just enough to cover their expense for the minor league (and or salary) disposal………without calling attention to it.
We got a pitcher from Cleveland for Reyes………..let him slide in the rule five unprotected with room on the 40 man..pretty much untried…..he almost made the SF team…..didn’t and SD claimed him …disposal times two. etc, etc
Here you go WC, This is not as sweet as the guitar playing but this is more my gig. This is my catcher playing with 225 lbs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFY3A7mpLRM&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Pansy………………………………… I couldn’t do plus twenty with two apples……………….. Put up a taste of your hitting video…………..I have a curiosity that won’t quit.
Did you see Huff juggling pigs for money?…………. did you hear the booing for the Terminator?….. 1.5 million on the parade route……………….the celebrating in “Gomorrah” USA should heat up the FA market considerably.
Here’s a Spanish folksong………………they had some ruff times there apparently.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGKmJ5bvm8A
HBT, sorry, but there were two posts of yours caught in the spam filter. It does not provide a description as to why. Though similar, I approved both. I apologize for the inconvenience.
bb, you are correct about the roster size being 33. If you click on “Players/Staff” at the top of the page and then “Depth Charts/Roster Matrix,” you can see the names and numbers for the entire system.
I’ve watched that a few more times RC……………….. the product is good……….the attitude is excellent.
Even though I don’t dwell in those places anymore…………I recognize that time, when young men begin to search for food……………appetites and hunger based/expressed in righteousness and a desire for contest/territory……………. I’ve coached some great kids. I always loved the moment when they found there own motivation/appetite……….and began to stalk what game they could imagine for themselves…………………………Great acts of competitive accomplishment, in my experience, are always visualized first, in heroic dreams……….entering waking consciousness, and action, almost as an afterthought to a hearts desire.
Interesting Westy, I think. I thought Jumbo was going to say the Braves are just stocking up on good prospects to trade us for something they want.
“Given all that, is Hudson worth almost twice the money [as Skip]?”
Absolutely.
Skip was/is a brutally terrible defender at second base that should not really even be called a second baseman. His offensive contribution is functionally irrelevant when you consider how bad he is defensively.
Hudson is at least as valuable offensively and his defensive upgrade alone would be worth the cost.
And then this gets back to another issue. Why is Skip due $2.7MM this coming year anyways? We had no reason whatsover to sign him to a two year deal. He was a 2010 non-tender candidate from the day he signed that two year deal – thereby nullifying our non-tender option. That was a mistake from the get-go. He is a sunk cost.
Easton, Skips extention is a direct result of TLR’s loyalty for Skip doing things the Cardinal Way.
I haven’t heard anyone say this, but I’ve always wondered if it wasn’t at least partially intended to try to take some pressure off him while he was trying to make the position transition stick.
I understand that, RC, but that doesn’t make it right. It was a bad decision.
A blind twelve year old girl could learn to do things the “Cardinal Way”. That doesn’t, however, make her a good baseball player.
I get that, Brian, but why not simply obtain a second baseman rather than trying to make one out of nearly dried out clay? That $4.7MM could have bought one a hell of a lot better than Skip.
The decision to make Skip an infielder was bad.
The contract given to said infielder (even if to appease him or take pressure off or whatever) was bad.
Two wrongs don’t make a right.
My point is if TLR is in your corner, good things happen and he will defend you till the end. I believe the 2 year deal to be a reward from TLR for Skips doing things like TLR wants them done.
Remember the DP feed last year from Brendan to Skip? The freaking ball was just below Skips sack, clearly an error on Skip. Tony says in the post game, “that was not Skips error”. And was pissed when he said it.
Are you freaking kidding me? Those are the types of comments that Tony makes that make me go hmmmmmmmmmm. To make a comment like that one must be blind or loyal to a fault.
Not being a great athlete himself I believe Tony tends to relate to those scrappy guys who seem to overachieve, and may feel the need to protect them at every turn.
Wasn’t defending the decision. Just trying to guess how they might have tried to rationalize it.
Oh, I agree, RC…which is why I would rid Tony of the temptation if I were Mo.
easton — I’m convinced of one thing… you have a great deal of animosity towards Skip, a guy who’s hit .300+ three of the last four years and made an emergency move to 2B in 2009 to help the team when Adam Kennedy became clubhouse poison and was paid to leave.
No doubt Skip struggled in 2010, hit 30 points lower than expected, is not an ideal second sacker and make 16 errors. Compare that to Brendan Ryan, whose defense recieves almost universal acclaim, who made 17 errors and struggled to stay above the Mendoza line for much of the year.
I’m not against upgrading at 2B, trading Skip or relegating him to a bench role. I just don’t think Hudson is worth twice the money. The O-Dog has been with 3 different teams in three years and when he was with LA, Torre sat him in favor of Ronnie Belliard at times. Seems to me there must be a reason he can’t stick with a team lately.
As for Skip’s contract, I’d wager it had much less to do with TLR and the Cardinal Way than it did with the club’s fear that he’d have earned more had he ended up going to arbitration.
HBT,
I’d venture to guess that most baseball guys would lean more towards Easton’s way of thinking in regards to Skip at 2B. Ok hitter, bad defender, not for a lack of effort though. Hustler for sure.
Adam Kennedy was turned ino a clubhouse poison. I’ve watched this from up close, its not hard to isolate a player and chop him off at the knees. If TLR is against you everyone is smart enough to know that they better not associate with you, for their own good.
Brendan is a far superior defender to Skip. Not even close by the way. Thats not a knock on Skip, he does all he can, Brendan is really good though.
My take on Easton’s comments is Orlando is a far superior defender than is Skip and the Cards are a pitch to contact team so the superior defense is what you are getting with the same bat.
“As for Skip’s contract, I’d wager it had much less to do with TLR and the Cardinal Way than it did with the club’s fear that he’d have earned more had he ended up going to arbitration.”
I sure as hell hope our front office isn’t that dumb. There is almost no chance Skip was getting $4.7MM via arbitration. It was a completely unnecessary move that cost us our right to non-tender him.
“As for Skip’s contract, I’d wager it had much less to do with TLR and the Cardinal Way than it did with the club’s fear that he’d have earned more had he ended up going to arbitration”.
This is a solid statement as one of the factors Tex…………………….
These issues were talked about extensively at the time…………….I’m surprised that they appear here with so many question marks…………
This was a move by BD to get Colby playing time……… the move of greater relevance was eating Kennedy’s 4 million to get to our current situation……….. BD won that battle……..the hemlock is what I believe I called it………….
Considering the moves that have been made since that time, what are you guys even thinking?
The Albert interview leaves little doubt about his expectations……….or his ongoing tandem with Tony……….. “my greatest year”……………amazing……………
tony does show blind loyalty, as he did with chris duncan. here we are again, and Mo needs to step in and jettison skip off the roster. there are enough teams looking for a leadoff option, that skip retains some value, but not at 2B. mlb is not blind, just tony, when it comes to admitting skip plays little league D at 2B.
skip for a reliever, and eat some salary if necessary. it’s time to put a major leaguer at 2B.
“I’d venture to guess that most baseball guys would lean more towards Easton’s way of thinking in regards to Skip at 2B. Ok hitter, bad defender, not for a lack of effort though. Hustler for sure.
My take on Easton’s comments is Orlando is a far superior defender than is Skip and the Cards are a pitch to contact team so the superior defense is what you are getting with the same bat.”
Absolutely 100% true. From a pure baseball standpoint, it is laughable that we trotted him out there at second at all – let alone for that long.
I don’t hate Skip. I hate that we think he is a second baseman. I hate that we signed him to an unnecessary two year deal.
As a reserve outfielder, he is a nice, hard-working, complementary ballplayer.
WC, TLR and Albert are tag team PR Superstars, you know that. They never say anything without it having huge significance to their world. I always laugh when their scripted comments come out backing one another up…..funny stuff. And I would go further in saying that they both are better PR people than they are baseball people and they are great baseball people.
Albert’s support of TLR is a major contributing factor in TLR still managing here in St. Louis imo. TLR is signed on for 2 years so now its Alberts time to push forward and get that record breaking deal. I’m interested to see how Albert plays this. He hasn’t made any mistakes so far and I’m inclined to bet that he won’t make any the rest of the way.
He can dictate terms………….name his price………..it will be exciting to watch. Like I’ve stated before, Mo is walking into a gun fight with a hand full of spit balls at his disposal.
If Albert gets less than 30 mil a year I’m gonna be disappointed.
I see that Matt Pagnozzi was dropped from the roster and outrighted to Memphis.I guess his play this September failed to impress or maybe Tony Cruz is playing so well in the AZFL the Cards prefer to protect him? if he takes Pags roster spot? Brian any info?
Probably not much fear of someone picking him up is the real reason so it would allow the Cards to protect another one of their young players.
BD is the GM RC……………….. and I wouldn’t underestimate him……………..
Tony is one year………Dave 2 with an option…………….. done in the correct order………..Tony is going to make waves…………..BD is holding a surf board………..count on some entertainment……..
I would remind everyone………that a titanic BD vs unpopular TLR clash in Tokyo, would be deemed a perfect excuse to “encourage” an Albert walk away………………with a plausible excuses for the BD to the fans……………………. the least likely scenario I must admit…………but what reasonable tactician has only one option going into a battle. Bd appears to have won the battle by the way…….but it isn’t over either.
cost saving…….. signing a new backup, or the possibility of signing one “cheap” obscures the importance of other critical moves………..the game is on……………….meaningless…….Tony never pinch hits his 2nd catcher anyway…………..it would take a good enough name to push Yadi in a close game. unlikely……
The Pags move only nets us a roster spot if we dont sign a veteran backup. Could this be a double win power play by Mo. He gets a roster spot and forces Tony to keep Anderson as the backup?
Wont be surprised to see Pags back on a minor league deal though.
I call BS Westy…………………….how much cheaper can a backup be than Pagnozzi?
Extending the logic. If Tony has a backup he’s not comfortable with, that means Molina plays even more. Increased chance of injury, shortened career. Setting up to possibly not excercise the 2012 option? Molina has a $7 million option for 2012 – if Pujols doesn’t sign does he clean house and trade Molina. If Pujols does sign does he trade Molina because he needs the salary room? Is this all related? Do I sound like Westie?
Westie, BS? Naawww, say it aint so!
Interesting thought on the Anderson power play. Tony can’t keep Pags over Anderson if Pags is not on the 40 man.
RC — I’m not suffering under any delusions about Skip’s defense at 2B. If you look back at my earlier posts, you’ll see I’ve repeatedly acknowledged his limitations. At the same time, I’m not closing my eyes to his positives. A guy who hit .300+ in MLB for 3 years running is better than just ‘OK’, and the Cards won the division in ’09 with him at 2B.
He wouldn’t have made $4.7M/year through arbitration, but $2M in 2010 or even $2.7M in 2011 wasn’t unreasonable or even ‘dumb’.
Your point about Ryan being a better defender is well taken, in fact, mirrors what I said about him earlier.
My point in this discussion is that Hudson doesn’t offer enough of an upgrade considering his cost/year… twice what we’re paying Skip, in an environment where the team has multiple needs. If O-Dog is so solid, why haven’t 3 other teams retained him in the last 3 years? Why did Torre bench him in favor of Belliard?
Whatever the Cards do this year, I think the long-term plan is ‘Dirty Dan’ Descalso at 2B.
As for Kennedy, I don’t know about any kneecapping. I do know he played poorly in ’07, had a better ’08, and was unhappy when told he would have to compete for the job in ’09. He was just released by Washington, which should tell us something.
I always felt there were was an ex-Angels angle behind the Kennedy/Glaus issues in ’09. At one time the Cards were Angels East… with 5 guys (Eckstein, Percival, Kennedy, Spiezio, and Glaus) from their championship team in ’02. After Kennedy was released, Glaus suddenly needed to have his shoulder worked on and took a year off with pay, leaving the club in the lurch. And by then, Eck, Spiezio & Percy were long gone.
“He wouldn’t have made $4.7M/year through arbitration, but $2M in 2010 or even $2.7M in 2011 wasn’t unreasonable or even ‘dumb’.”
Yes, it would have been. We looked at it in detail at the time of the signing. I forecasted arbitration earnings of a total of $5MM for the two years using past results are evidence. And that assumed no offensive decline
So we, maybe, saved $300,000 to guarantee a marginal player two years when he was already under team control no matter what. We gained zero – and we lost plenty (namely the option to NOT pay him $2.7MM next year).
Now, with the decline, he wouldn’t get even that much – and we lost our ability to non-tender him (which I would have seriously considered doing if I were Mo and were not tied to him like we are now).
We don’t have to agree but there is plenty of evidence to suggest the deal was an unnecessary, if not downrigtht poor, choice. At the time, the only conclusion that we could come to was that we were buying “goodwill”.
I didn’t understand it then and I sure as hell don’t now.
Your comment about Hudson drives that point home even more. If, in our deepest desire to replace Skip, we are not able to sign someone like Hudson because of the $2.7MM Skip is owed, it makes the deal even worse.
Skip’s salary history from 2008-10…. $396K, $430K, and $2M. Total… $2.826M.
Hudson’s salary history from 2008-10… $6.25M, $3.365M, and $5M. Total $14.615M.
Skip’s cost was 1/5 of Hudson’s and even if you add in Skip’s $2.7M for 2011 it’s still only 1/3 of the outlay. Considering the relative equity of their offensive performance over that time period (see my earlier stats post) and acknowledging the difference in defensive skills, I wonder which GM got the best bang for the buck, Mo or those other 3 guys? Seems to me the Cards got good value from Skip, rewarded him for past performance and for being a good team guy… willing to change positions or do whatever the team asked.
I accept your point about the non-necessity of giving Skip the 2nd year for $2.7M. I’d guess that calculation was based on when Mozeliak thought Descalso would be ready.
One is a credible everyday second baseman and one is not. The GM that got the good player automatically is better off.
We are trying to replace Skip for a reason: he isn’t good enough. We wouldn’t be having this conversation if he was.
Regardless, I have no idea what is accomplished by comparing a post artbitration player’s salaries to pre-arb. and arb. player’s salaries.
You guys are cruelty stupid………………..cost saving means that they pay him minor league salary for the first 6 weeks because of the Early Feb reporting date fore catchers and pitchers………..standard procedure………..saves them a few dollars.
For those that have a hard time following…………..Pags was brought up when LaRue went down…all others were September call ups.
Tex, your thinking is solid…………rational is functional………….it had nothing to do with baseball. Money was insignificant in that whole affair. If Skip hits 300 and gets a few more walks, you’re not even having this conversation…………………….if that was true, Lopez wouldn’t have been over exposed as a lead off and likely continued to produce………..etc, ect………… Mo/BD had Skip on the market to Colorado, SD, and anybody else for that matter………….Skip became, and has been the Hemlock…………don’t forget that he was the one that brought MM into the Mix……………..
AP taking an interview with an offshore, like last year, was sanctioned by Lozano………his responses all scripted………to both sides, timing is everything. I’m going to write what my ownership strategy would be……….. this weeks election oddly enough inject an unusual and surprising new variable.
Sorry Westie, try again. No salary (for major or minor leaguers) during Spring Training. There is probably a $100 or so difference per day in per diem but since if Pags is in camp it will be with an invitation to major league camp so he’ll get most of that per diem. Stick to conspiracy theories with complex plots – your fiction writing is better for those scenarios.
Actual, Tex’s analysis is a little flawed.
First, there is no logic to compare non-arbitration and even cost controlled (arb) years to those of a FA. Yes, Schumaker was cheap but it was simply because he had no leverage.
Second, the best and most widely used measure of player value (offensively and defensively) is WAR. According to Fangraph’s WAR (and WAR value calculation) Skip was worth $16.4 million in those 3 years while Hudson was worth $32.4 million.
Easton has been consistent on this subject long before Schu had his down year.
Save a few dollars Brazilian…………..can you read………… Player payouts are different per contract agreement, and physical exam for and insurance clearance………….leaving Anderson at a lower status, by himself, is also a factor in his apparent value……Carpenter won’t pitch to Anderson again……..deal with it……….but that’s beside the point. Your back on the bench………………….
Brian and RC made the Post Dispatch today, and article called “The Colby Question”.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_833b420e-e908-11df-85c4-0017a4a78c22.html
The idea that BD gave Skip $4.7 and ate Kennedy’s $4, all to clear the outfield logjam for Colby in a way acceptable to Tony seems a bit much. Remember that a year ago everyone was gushing about what an astonishing feat Skip accomplished, learning infield in one spring training and playing 2B all year (2009) creditably. The .300 avg helped. It was reasonable to hope he would progress as a fielder in his second year, while continuing to hit .300 (.300+ against righties, with infrequent duty against lefties). My guess is they figured he would be worth the money.
BB……………………………… is Skip a Cardinal development player…………..????????? They tried to trade him twice…………they wanted him to try out against Kennedy…………… Tony told them he would never survive that competition………….. BD made his point….Mo meticulously assigning responsibility to Tony…….Tony aaccepted………go back and read up………..this was before Duncan and Ankiel were dealt with……………that is how it happened.
CC — It’s perfectly logical to compare the compensation levels of two players in the context of a discussion about replacing one with the other.
As for WAR being ‘the best and most widely used measure of player value’, that is a concept I would challenge. While SABR-metrics are gaining currency in baseball, I think it would be an overstatement to say that they are universally accepted, the best, or the only valid method of measurement.
Personally, I’m not opposed to using new tools in the search for objective knowledge about baseball, but I am opposed to the abandonment or disparagement of the tried and true for the trendy and new.
Traditional statistics were good enough to sustain baseball for well over 100 years. That usefulness wasn’t destroyed when Bill James and others like him went looking for new ways to gain additional insight.
HBT – Fair point about compensation levels of players when replacing one with the other but that seems to make more sense going forward than in hindsight. (particularly when you brought up past years (2008, 2009) where no one was arguing that Skip shouldn’t have been signed for those values.)
What other tool that places a monetary value on a player’s performance other than WAR would you suggest?
Tex…………those guys read a bit of this blog every day……..I’m aware of some NY interest to…….
Jumbo was bigger than any of us knew I think…………..
I don’t remember it quite like that Westy. Kennedy’s problems started because he sucked right off the bat, and sucked all year. He had come in hyped, supposed to remedy the 2nd base problem from the year before (Miles, Luna, Belliard). By the end of the year he was dogshit. In Tony’s doghouse and the fans were against him. Couldn’t unload him all of 2008 and cut him that winter. He was gone Skip or no Skip.
CC — I don’t know how accurate an attempt to convert a variety of statistical measurements of various denominations into single number expressed in dollars can be. I do understand how such a tool would be useful, if reliable.
By the numbers you cited, neither player was compensated at ‘true’ value. Skip’s situation can be explained, being under team control for 2 of those years and only arbitration eligible for one. But the same can’t be said for Hudson, who was a FA (I think) for two of the three years.
I chose to look at a three year average of conventional stats, which are more readily grasped and which allowed one to make a more point-by-point comparision of value. For my money, both traditional and SABR methods of defensive measurement fall short.
Incredible BB……………….
The exclusive FA window ends tomorrow and there has been nothing about Westbrook. Its as if everyone has been told to talk about Colby instead.
I’m tired of Albert’s ‘it is out of my control’ line . . . . delivered with puppydog eyes. What a crock. Not ineffective though. The accounts in the Dominican media make him out as quite the heroic figure. (yes, I used westydots without attribution)
Westy, I’m not quite fully on board with the whole Skip situation. Not just the issues you address. On field, I’m not totally convinced he’s the clear cut ‘must fix’ problem this winter.
I second calling BS on the “it is out of my control” line. Even Lebron was man enough to admit he made the decision.
The new Cardnation daily blog-AS THE WESTY RAMBLES.or the dwlusions of a over inflated ego and imagination.Westy you are full of more crap than a TV preacher.
BB, truth be know…………all planning at this stag is secondary…………..Skip (not my favorite) is just a pawn in a larger issue as always………….. he was hitting his position at the end of the year……that is the issue……..and the problem…….. why did he wait so long pressing his attempts at hitting for power…………MM at work I’m afraid. Every player on that team is aware of the conflicts concerning tenure and money………….except the properties……………Skip could be out of baseball after this year……….and that’s the truth…………
Timing is everything………………Lozano can’t give BD a number………..BD dare not give him a number.
That is unlikely to change before January. The out of my control statement is a scripted reference to Union / MLB owners standards for salary value…….the Philly’s set it up with their 25 to Howard. The Twin 184 to Mauer messes with other precedents…………..owners aren’t go to allow any more 200 million dollar contracts. AP could get 6/180……….but they can’t insure that anymore…………..AP is no doubt worried about his ability to survive till the Record years……..so he wants the money out front………… the Union wants him to stretch the envelope……….AL would be the best investment………
There are a bunch of strategies possible. Lozano starts talking 250 plus………..BD goes public and say..”we can’t pay that” we are now listening for trade offers on AP’s last yr…….which of course he has to OK because it would contain the extension. That would possibly be a humiliating experience as the Cardinals went public with each offer……if any………..from teams knowing the cost………….that eliminates all collusion liabilities……… no matter what, the Cardinals are the foundation “valuation for AP………..if he blows that anything is possible. Lozano must avoid that, he will start listening to what BD has in mind for differed numbers and such. AP carries allot of baggage in my book…….his goal is to extort the number out of BD, where he wants to be. BD is no schmo……….he has prepared something……which would include punching all of AP’s/Tony’s buttons no doubt…………….Personally…………I take Posey/Bumgatrner/Sanchez for Ap/YM in a heartbeat. Our chemistry would be unstoppable………….Posey is going to be a Joe Mauer……….SF might go for it…………………..but I really doubt they would…………..teams that pitched to AP this year probably aren’t agreeing to his “best year ever” crap………
If AP stays………..and BD likely knows the answer to that already………. they look like dark years to me………… pitching is in worse shape than most know……….if its Albert just trying to add trophies to his wall for ten yrs………..this team won’t be making the playoffs…………………..and he will, and you all know it.
……………………………………………………………………
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEUxldFGYg8
Back to Skip…
We had no obligation to guarantee Skip’s second year. It was a mistake.
Skip is a terrible defensive second baseman who has been average-ish offensively a couple times (to simplify things).
That is not a combination that earns you a second year guarantee in arbitration (without a negligible – at best – discount). That is a combination you live with year-to-year until said person can be replaced for less money.
This has been my position since the day the deal was announced. Forecasting Skip as a potential non-tender candidate was easy…so why did we give away that right? What did we get in consideration for giving up that right?
The answer?
Nothing.
I like Skip (way more than people think, actually) but I like him for what he is (or, perhaps more accurately, what he was)…a utility outfielder who was valuable because he was versatile, cheap, and could get on base against righties.
He is a terrible, terrible second baseman. Valiant effort, thanks for helping us out in a pinch…yada, yada, yada…but he is terrible.
Oops… I meant ‘WITH a negigible – at best discount’
Gotay would be a cheaper Skip at second if Skip and his contract could be unloaded. Ruben is not much for defense but would likely be somewhat better than Skip. He is also a good OBP guy, at least in AAA. It might be a wash, and save over 2 mil. 2B would suck again, but maybe not as bad, and perhaps it would contribute toward a serious upgrade elsewhere.
bb – we all have the right to dream!
BB, Gotay was the outstanding player in the game I witnessed in Reno……….he made some great plays at third and showed a sophistication with his bat , working all fields, than did anyone else….
He would have been more interesting than Feliz……………… but in truth, the showiness of the Feliz move (for free) eclipsed any baseball reason…………….. we would have all criticized them for doing the easy, cheap thing………..probably true………… Criteria was public perception……….