There is a lot of buzz about soon-to-be free agent infielder Miguel Tejada possibly heading to St. Louis. No one is talking about a major fly in the ointment, however.
As the hot stove league heats up, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune noted the following about the St. Louis Cardinals in a “Baseball Whispers” article on Sunday.
“Miguel Tejada is on their radar as they look to improve at two of three spots among second, short and third.”
This name has been floated in conjunction with the Cardinals a number of times over the years, including at the July trade deadline. Buoyed by the expected return of David Freese, the Cardinals apparently did not make Baltimore an offer for Tejada. The 36-year-old was dealt to the San Diego Padres instead in return for a prospect.
Now, with a chance to upgrade over inadequate fill-in Pedro Feliz, the Cardinals may be looking at Tejada again. Even before Rogers’ comment, the name has come up on the personal wish list of Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss in recent weeks.
Tejada does not come without warts, including past issues with age falsification and PED allegations. The biggest challenge may be the decline in stats as his age advances. His .692 OPS in 2010 was his worst as an MLB full-time starter, a stretch that began in 1999.
As his defensive range has declined, Tejada spent more time at third base than his natural shortstop position this past season. The Cardinals are clearly looking for short-term third base insurance for oft-injured Freese while prospects such as Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter work their way toward St. Louis. At short, Tejada could be an offensive pairing with defensive stalwart Brendan Ryan.
Though the right-handed hitting Tejada has never appeared at second base as a major leaguer, I can’t help but wonder if he could become proficient at that position as well. It is a late-career move already made by former Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein, Tejada’s teammate in San Diego. This would give the 2011 Cardinals even more flexibility.
Even if all three incumbent infielders were to recover to have standout seasons in 2011, there should be enough at-bats to satisfy Tejada backing up all of them.
The more I think about it, from a fit perspective, I can see why the addition of Tejada would suit the Cardinals well.
Before we march off fat, dumb and happy into the sunset, here is the rub, though, and it is a major one.
Earlier, those in the game of trying to reverse-engineer the Elias Rankings projected Tejada as a Type B free agent. If so, a signing club would not forfeit a draft pick.
That did not turn out to be the case, however. In the real Elias Rankings released last week, Tejada has been classified as a Type A free agent, his ranking perhaps buoyed by having played better with San Diego than with the Orioles. In fact, because of his fit with his new club, some reports have the Padres interested in retaining Tejada for 2011.
If the Cardinals were to move quickly to try to sign Tejada before San Diego has to make the decision whether or not to offer him arbitration, the Cards would automatically forfeit their first-round draft pick next June, tentatively #22 overall.
This prohibitive price from the Cardinals’ perspective would be the same if the Padres eventually do offer arbitration to Tejada and he declines. If the Padres offer arbitration and Tejada accepts, he is off the market. The offer decision date for clubs is November 23.
The Cardinals may have to wait until at least November 30, the date by which players must accept or decline offers of arbitration, to make a formal move on Tejada, while hoping the Padres pass on the opportunity to grab a pair of extra early picks by not offering him.
Further, the Cardinals have no Type A free agents of their own that might be used to replace their first-round pick that would be lost in signing Tejada. With an already-thin group of projected high ceiling prospects, the Cardinals would be especially ill-advised to give up their top draft pick to sign an aging infielder.
In other words, while there may be interest in Tejada from St. Louis, it would be a major surprise to see any action in that area until at least late next month and the chance of it not proceeding at all has increased substantially in recent days.
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No chance SD offers Tejada arbitration.
So you think they would make a push to sign him until 11/23 and if he doesn’t bite, they don’t offer him? Tejada’s increased value as a Type A might be tempting to offer him arbitration. It will be interesting to see how Jed Hoyer acts compared to all those years of Kevin Towers as GM.
i expect multiple short term signings of established “names” this offseaon, even if they are in the decline stage.
an effort by the FO to take the correct posturing position, for a possible albert extension later in the offseason.
tejada, renteria, hudson, westbrook, freddy garcia, uribe, garland, etc, etc, could all be in play, to renew the commitment to winning in alberts eyes.
we might even break 100mil by opening day (w/out a raise to AP’s 2011 salary factored in).
the farmhands mentioned above are either mending or not ready, so the FA’s could provide a short term bridge, but mostly for AP’s sake.
Mo has made encouraging remarks about increasing payroll. By how much is anybody’s guess.
If signing AP is a lock and the Cardinals are serious about signing Westbrook, then more than a marginal payroll increase will have to occur to pick up any FA worth signing. I’m not holding my breath.
I missed this the first time through the Strauss Q&A:
“Ryan . . . . has irritated some within the organization due to habits such as tardiness.”
I have heard nothing about that at all. Interesting it should be floated out now.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_3f513516-e210-11df-b0d3-00127992bc8b.html
The Cards must have a real backup plan for Freese in 2011.Even a minor league FA with bigleague experience (Scott Moore,Travis Matcalf,Jack Hanahan etc;).The Cards simply can`t get caught in a wishing Freese is okay situation.
As for Tejada i think SD won`t offer arbotration and Tejada still signs with SD.
Let’s put it this way, if SD offers, I;d be shocked if Tejada didn’t accept. The only reason not to would be if he didn’t like it there.
BB- Just like it was interesting that the Rasmus trade demand was floated out two months after it happened? PR BS for the masses to cover their asses. They want to have cover if they decide to rid themselves of Ryan. SSDD.
I agree crdswmn. It’s also an example of how that ‘connectedness’ thing works. Strauss has had unlimited chances to divulge that bit of news, including when Lopez was cut due to ‘tardiness’. Certainly many times it would have been a relevant item but was not mentioned, and now its thrown in when not all that relevant. It seems rather clear he was given the ok to mention it, meaning ‘mention it Joe’. He was very slick about it too, getting it out there without making it into a news item. Even though its news, it likely won’t be repeated much, or become a topic. That’s an example of the ‘good sports journalist’ thing.
The Ryan tardiness issue isn’t new or contrived for ulterior purposes. There was an article on MLB.com last year, during spring training where Skip praised Ryan’s new-found ‘maturity’, citing Brendan showing up for meetings on time for a change as an example. Al/Dan on FSM have also made references to the issue a time or two.
Of course, showing up late to the field after misplacing his glove in Cincinnati in August was a nationally televised example, resulting in Brendan’s first guest appearance on ‘Tunnel Talk with Chris Carpenter’, soon to be a regular feature on the FSM post-game show, replacing Jack Clark.
The Cards MUST acquire an insurance policy for David Freese at 3B this year. They’ve tried to hand him the job two years running but he’s played less than 3 months of the 12 offered to him and one of those months (June) he was hurt and partially ineffective. He showed promise on defense last year after some early struggles and a knack for knocking in runs. But he’s not demonstrated durability at all and doesn’t help the team while on the DL.
Tejada is an interesting candidate. As Brian outlines, he can help us in a number of areas on D and was one of few bright spots with the bat on that SD team, who ranked 15th in batting average in the NL last year. Can’t say what SD’s plans for him (or Ludwick) are, but if we get a chance to snag him it’s worth a look, even if it costs us a draft pick. Losing Freese to injury, in conjunction with the Ludwick trade, cost us far more than that last year.
Miguel is familiar with the NLC after a stint with Houston and seemed to do better back in the NL than during his time in Baltimore.
Plus, Tony loves the veterans, and he’s certainly that.
Here’s a link to that MLB.com/Matt Leach story about Ryan, and an excerpt.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100201&content_id=8004386&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
“Long known within the clubhouse as likable and excitable, but not always reliable, teammate, Ryan did something remarkable this winter. Not only did he regularly attend new hitting coach Mark McGwire’s hitting sessions in Southern California, he showed up on time. Every single time. For some players, this may not be a big deal. For Ryan, it’s a breakthrough. And it’s another sign of the maturing of a very promising player.”
“I don’t think he’s ever hit this much in the offseason [before],” said double-play partner Skip Schumaker. “I don’t know if he even hit in the offseason before the last couple weeks of spring [in previous years]. He hasn’t been late one time, which is more incredible than anything I think. He’s done a great job. McGwire’s been working hard with him, and it’s hard not to like Brendan Ryan. He’s a good kid, works hard and I think there’s going to be some nice improvements.”
HBT, one reason Ryan’s hitting was limited last winter was because he had an injured wrist that required surgery.
HB, good thoughts. TLR was so impressed by Ryan the Cards invested in Khalil for 09 and Cesar for 08. Ryan only got to play after Khalil turned out to have morale injuries.
Brian makes a good point Tejada is not worth a first round pick.
Tejada is probably not going to be a super hot FA. He will get a one year deal. One fish in the sea.
The TLR threat to demote Colby and his request to be traded were confirmed by TLR only after RCW revealed them here.
This is the go-to web site for Rasmus trade rumors!
Well, based on results, he should sit out this winter and quit being so punctual. Assuming he had no tardiness problems this year, its all the more odd that Strauss should float it.
The problem with Tejada, or somebody like him being a backup for Freese is he wouldn’t be a backup for Freese. He’d be in the lineup all the time, keeping regulars like Freese and Ryan from getting in a groove. Tony can’t let that kind of guy sit and pinch hit. Whenenver his book showed past success six years ago against some guy, he’d be in there, no matter how much of a hot streak the other guy was on. It would be infuriating.
Skip makes $2.7 this year, so he may not still be here opening day. But if he is, Skip’s problem is range mostly, he has a reasonable arm. Put him over there if Freese breaks down. He should hit closer to his career avg. Get in some work at 3rd this spring. Tony would love him even more.
Talk Benjie out of retiring after the WS. He’d be a good backup. Him or Jose. At this point, either one would probably work for LaRue money and be happy with one game a week. Tony would be so excited he’d have to call a doctor after 4 hours.
Ryan was first diagnosed with attention deficit disorder as a child but does not take the medication due to the side effects. I would think the tardiness is related. When Ryan first came up, I remember David Eckstein trying to keep Brendan in the right place at the right time.
The Blue Jays already picked up Jose Molina’s option for next season.
I believe the side effects are weight loss. It is tough on the more slim guys to take that medication during the baseball season as they end up weaker than normal.
Yep, severe nausea leading to weight loss, I think.
Brendan worked extremely hard this year in every facet of the game. His defense was top of the charts. The wrist injury plus him trying to learn a one handed swing was his undoing. Hopefully the wrist is better this year and he may have more success with the linear batting style. If he’s not it won’t be from lack of effort.
I expect Brendan and Colby to have breakthrough years. Better to commit some bucks locking them up than pay a Tejada.
ADD meds affect different people different ways. Its always a matter of which is worse, the condition or the side effects. And a given med can have a changing effect as the person matures, requiring ongoing tweeking of the regimine. Persistence often leads eventually to a treatment plan that improves the situation. People also tend to learn life skills over time that help minimize the disruption.
Depending on the wrist , Brendan may very well have a big year. Man I sure am pulling for him. He is an exciting athlete to watch, and a really good kid.
bling — No matter who we sign to back up Freese, the same thing will be true. Tony uses his bench liberally. If you haven’t gotten used to that in 15 years, well, I suppose there’s no hope you’ll adjust now. TLR’s use of bench guys and situational match-ups for hitters/pitchers are his most notable contributions to the game as a manager, his stock in trade. I don’t think he’s going to change in season 16 with the Cards.
I think we need a big RH bat for 3B or RF to hit in the 5 hole. Our record vs. LHP after losing Freese and Ludwick last year was pathetic. We had Stavinoha, Feliz, Craig, Lopez, etc. hitting 5th July-October (all pretty much failed) and Colby isn’t clutch enough yet to be reliable there.
Freese drove in runs but didn’t hit many HR. And if Skip’s bat seemed out of place in RF, it is equally misplaced at 3B. Jay isn’t a power bat or big RBI producer. Craig might be, but is still a question mark at this juncture. How are we going to replace Ludwick’s annual 100 RBI, 20+ HR? Not with Skip, that’s for sure.
If we do upgrade middle IF, Skip is the likely loser. He may go in a trade or be relegated to a bench role. His $2.7M salary for 2011 paints a bullseye on him for a team looking to limit it’s payroll structure at the margins. Brendan’s lower salary makes him less likely to be moved… IMO.
I like Ryan. He’s great defensively with jaw dropping range and athleticism. The play he made in the Colorado series, just before season’s end, was a fine example. But he’s got issues for sure. Once he limited the sidearm throws and starting coming over the top, his errors went way down and his accuracy way up. I think he’s got one more year to show on offense before the club looks elsewhere. No doubt the late wrist surgery really hurt him in 2010.
The idea of shifting Skip to 3B is a non-starter.
There is no reason to “lock-up” Ryan. We have years more control over him. Also you want to reward a good year.
Beltre is the prince of available 3B candidates. A strong fielder and fine hitter. He is going to command a lot of money and the Cards need to save bucks for Albert. After Beltre, the appeal of alternatives nose-dives
Great thread friends……….very informative…………..
I must say though, that like it or not, if everyone is correct, BD could save allot of money and play to quite a few factions by signing Tejada…………… having nothing to do with baseball of course.
That includes money saved on first round draft pick bonuses. That’s a few million right there………
Backing up 3 positions with one player………….hey it worked with Lopez…………..
Arbitration would cost SD a more than 6 large……….maybe as much as 8 if Tejada was in any way involved in the collusion settlement……….probably factored in the A rating………….
SD at 37 million this year……….making the big money…….huge talent infusion coming in when they trade Gonzales………….
Brendan Ryan only becomes a plus player if all his faults are managed………why do it? One chance in ten that he doesn’t “find a way” to screw up…………..Lets bring a few players in… we’re going to need them……………..Jocetty isn’t done yet.
Jumbo, I think I got un-used to it missing the playoffs 3 of 4 and sucking the other year.
I agree RC, as you may know I’m a big fan even when I’m frustrated with him. And the socks pay for a lot of sins. Also, its OK to include Colby in the optimism. Is he not also an exciting athlete and a good kid? Give him a pendant to play with between pitches or something. Good luck to Cory by the way.
I don’t see the 100 RBI guy out there. Certainly not anyone who would be cheaper than Luddy would have been, and Bill seems to have not wanted to spend that kind of money on RF in 2011. Remember,spending $17M per on LF was supposed to cover the bop factor. Unless a Larry Walker falls out of the sky, I think we will have to upgrade with a speedy OBP guy who plays 2nd, and a creaking relic to back up 3rd. Or tell Descalso he’s the second baseman hitting leadoff.
Walt gets good production out of Gomes, at a cutrate price. One cost to signing Holliday is you can get away with a weak defender in LF, like Cinci did with Gomes.
Jumbo, I think you will agree that there is little in the way of upgrades via the free agent market this off season. The Cardinals are gonna have to go at it with what they have.
I pick at you guys about the Cardinals in order to get a rise out of you and give and alternative viewpoint to many cardinals fans just for kicks and giggles but I will say this:
Freese for an entire year will be better than what the cards had last year at 3B. Brendan has to be better offensively at short. Skip will be better offensively from the jump at 2B, and will be able to fill in from time to time in CF. Craig/Jay are bound to be a productive tandem in RF, with Jay spelling Colby now and again in CF. You would have to hope that Colby would improve in all facets of his game, including offensively. Yadi is bound to bounce back offensively to his pre 2010 numbers. Albert and Matt will produce like always.
In other words, The offense will be just fine in 2011. Lets just hope the pitching stays as excellent as it has been.
Freese has missed most of 2009 and 2010 with recurrent foot injuries. The Cards will need to add another veteran candidate for 3B. Maybe they can unearth an underappreciated AAA player as did the Brewers. Or add a veteran. They need one more guy for 3B.
Ryan can hit for a better average than during 2010.
Yes, Skip will be back at 2B and I have no problem with it. He ought to sit against southpaws, however.
I am not sure about Craig/Jay in RF. My guess is Mo will want to add a veteran who can play RF to add OF depth.
Stavinoha and Mather might want to look for jobs in Korea or Japan.
Clarification: S. Korea.
Sounds like we may be “favored” in the division RC……………….
Lets cut to the chase……………….. “you have to divide the plate in half”………..”no one can command both sides”…………………………that is of course suggesting, ” on any given pitch”……………..
he didn’t sell it because AP was busy trying not to be traded………….pre-season………..
Skip didn’t adopt his role, (giving up being an outfielder playing 2nd) as a lead off hitter until the last 6 weeks………he may stay grounded………or raise a family a family and sell insurance…..
Brendan, as hurt as he was, was flipping wrists and uppercutting on every free swing he had.
Molina, behind the AP curtain, was a merciless opportunist in August and September……….. he is gold digging. 20 Hr years will double the size of his next contract. That is not lost on him.
I like Descalso………….but…….be honest………..his left handed swing looks like he is a “wannabe switch hitter”. If I looked that bad from the Left, and threw right, I would just start working both sides of the plate and try to market that…………..Two weeks in and scouting already neutralized his AB’s.
I’m going over my 5000 limit………….I’ll finish later.
I sense the sarcasm dripping from your words WC but I DO believe the Cardinals will be the favorite.
Lets be honest, Mark will not be giving AP any hitting tips so AP is irrelevant to Marks’s philosophy.
that’s why i’m willing to make the bet RC – you didnt answer me on your PM over at Scout.
Oh come on RC–don’t stop with the negativity, it is much more fun.
Anybody have any thoughts on the chance Colby significantly cuts his K rate. What’s it take for that to happen?
What about the chances Albert gets less IBBs? A .300/100rbi guy behind him didn’t help.
Any chance the baserunning improves? This level seems a bit late to learn how not to make bone head blunders.
Descalso will be an upgrade on Skip based on defense alone
bb – i expect Colby to bat 5th most of the year. Given that, I think he will be swinging away (and rightfully so) so I doubt the K rate goes down much.
Fox………..Bush”s………the majestic pageantry of baseball………memories of the great and honorable days of their “wise leadership”………….. I am touched………….
CC, I know but wheres the fun if we all agree on everything. I’m here along with WC to aggravate you a little, and to give a differing opinion so as to generate some serious discussions. Unfortunately if I didn’t then we would all just have a love fest about the cardinals. I’m actually probably more of a kool aid drinker in real life than most cardinals fans, if thats possible.
Colby will cut his K rate this year, bank big bucks on it. I believe he understands that K’s, arms strength and accuracy, stolen bases, and avg need to be on his plate to improve upon this upcoming year. Now that a big obstacle of his has been removed I expect him to improve in many areas this year.
As Albert gets older those IBB’s will decrease.
Maybe Tony will not have everyone playing not to make mistakes and will allow them to relax and play the game like it is a game and not a chess match. This will make for better play imo.
RC, what is the obstacle that has been removed?
We know Tony is not going to change so why speculate about it.
TLR is certainly not going to change.
But the obstacle of Colby allowing someone else to impact his play for the worse, I believe, is gone.
So RC, what is it that you know that we don’t?
Crdswmn, Absolutely nothing.
Old habits are hard to break, RC.
Your sensing an interesting topic RC………………. if Tony does what I think, and Colby gets out of the way, I look for Colby to actually feed on Tony’s struggles…………and that’s a meal………. AP doesn’t eat there………and old homesick himself, MH, might become pleasant company…………
Lets face it………AP’s situation and its resolution, is going to transform the team………….
Looks like Sanchez doesn’t have ADA………….. Cody Ross is topping out on his own desire to “get comfortable”………he needs to stay focused………..a formidable challenge I would concede. He is looking to tap the stadium energy……………..surfing the big wave can be a bit-h………… the suddenly self conscious player (hero), often meets his nemesis, who uninvited…….shows up to enjoy the adulation…………………………………… for nonbelievers, Molina kisses his Golden Catchers mitt between every pitch, evoking the presents of his father’s hopes for him……….that is anything but harmless…………..In my opinion……. he uses the isolation in this private dialog to flee adult social agreements.(team chemistry)…………..hold on, Fox gives us the Bush’s again……. I’m gonna puke…………..
Sorry Westie, no transformation on the horizon. the Cards will re-sign Pujols and and we’ll get more of the same — a talented team that may or may not perform to its capabilities.
Pass the potato’s………………… Considering what Pujols contact requirements entail………..his first mistake would be to sign here…………….that’s what I fear for the fans…………..yes, he likely will…. ..
And Brazil elects a women President…………….. I hope she likes rain forest.
How about that Bocchie………puts out a TLR lineup………and wins………………
If the Cards lay out the money to sign Westbrook during the window after the WS, then the chance of hiring a hitter or expensive infielder goes down.
Something the system could reasonably be expected to produce is a seviceable #2 loogy behind Miller. Obviously they didn’t think they had one last year given the lefties they tried out in Memphis. Paying 400K instead of the $2M Reyes made would expand the possibilities. Saving 1.6 there and hypothetically 2.3 replacing Skip with Descalso would expand possibilities more.
Hopefully the Giants will lay the season to rest so we can get the show on the road. Before we all burn up our keyboards jabbering about it. Brian reads all this stuff.
By the way Brian, don’t forget to find out if Cox can play 3B. I hear he looks a lot like Wallace out there, if that. Not all that athletic, ok arm. I hear he’s not fast either. He sounds an awful lot like the non-impact type we are up to our ears in.
Earlier, I suggested that the team needs to add a RH power bat/run producer to hit in the 5-hole. 3B/RF are obvious places that bat would fit. I also said Colby was not yet clutch enough for the job. Here’s a look at the numbers that underlie that thinking. I’ve listed BA w/RISP in 2010, ranked highest to lowest for those with 100+ AB’s, followed by HR/RBI in parentheses.
1. Ludwick .345 (11/43)
2. Pujols .343 (42/118)
3. Freese .324 (4/36)
4. Schumaker .297 (5/42)
5. Molina .286 (6/62)
6. Lopez .284 (7/36)
7. Jay .274 (4/27)
8. Holliday .271 (28/103)
9. Craig .258 (4/18)
10. Rasmus .252 (23/66)
11. Miles .233 (0/9)
12. Ryan .232 (2/36)
13. Stavinoha .231 (2/9)
14. Feliz .202 (1/9)
15. Winn .183 (3/17)
16. Greene .150 (2/10)
Of those in the top 10, Ludwick & Lopez are gone. Albert and Matt, leading the team in batting average, HR and RBI, hit 3-4.
So who bats 5th? Freese would be a potential fit, but given his injury history, he cannot be depended on for a full season, if at all. Are the Cards willing to bet 2011 on his fragile legs? His power numbers are poor for half a season (4 HR) but his RBI total was OK (36) and his BA w/RISP was better than anyone still with the team, except Albert.
Of the remaining 5 candidates, all have flaws that make them less than optimal or unsuited for the role.
Colby has the power (23 HR) and was 3rd on the team in RBI (66) but also led the team in strike outs (148) and had the lowest BA w/RISP (.252) among the top 10. He’s likely the best among current choices, but flawed. Compare his 148 K’s to 93 for Matt and 76 for Albert. That’s too little contact for a good 5-holer and very un-clutch. Colby’s R/L splits are solid, .278 vs. RHP and .270 vs. LHP, a nice improvement over 2009.
Yadi lacks power (6 HR) but was 4th on the team in RBI (62) and ranks 4th in BA w/RISP among those still with the team. His strike out total is low (51) but his lack of speed would clog up the bases too much to hit that high in the order. His GIDP rate is another issue.
Skip lacks power (5 HR) but had the 5th most RBI (42) and the 4th best BA w/RISP among those still with the team. Surprising, isn’t it? is R/L splits are bad, .211 vs. LHP and .275 vs. RHP, so he’s no use against LHP. If Skip hits 5th, we’re in trouble.
That leaves Jay and Craig, neither with a full year in MLB. Both hit only 4 HR and both have low RBI totals (27/18). Jay hit better w/RISP (.274) than Craig (.258) and his splits are good, .308 vs. LHP and better than .297 vs. RHP. Jay slots better 1-2 in the order. Craig’s number in 3A would make him a potential candidate for the 5-hole, but he hasn’t translated 3A success to MLB, yet.
Of the other 6 listed, ranked 11-16, Feliz and Winn are gone and maybe Miles too. Ryan will be back and hopefully has a better year. Greene and Nick may return, but probably shouldn’t. Look at their numbers: 2 HR each and 15 non-HR RBI combined. Neither is a good defender. Greene is out of options and has an MLB batting average of .222. Nick may be out of options as well.
One final point. I’m saying we need a RH power bat/run producer based on our history vs. LHP last year. We started out well, 2-3 vs. lefty starters in April, 6-2 in May and 7-4 in June for a 15-9 record in the first half. But after Freese/Ludwick went down injured in late June, the Cards struggled vs. southpaws: 5-6 in July, 3-7 in August and 3-6 in Sept/Oct., finishing 26-28 for the year.
On the road trip in August (to Pittsburgh, Washington and Houston), when the Cards fell 8 games behind the Reds, the team went 2-8. Five of those 8 losses were to LHP. In fact, from August 24 to September 23rd, the team lost every game (10) started by a lefty. With Ludwick gone, Freese out, and Colby un-clutch, the team had no effective 5-holer. Albert and Matt were pitched around and there was nothing else in the lineup that opposing teams feared.
Without an upgrade, including a healthy Freese, we’re likely in for more of the same.
History shows that batting with RISP is not a repeatable skill. Some years it will be higher than a player’s BA and some year’s lower. I think people are putting waayyyy to much into one year’s stats in that area.
Greene has an option left.
Nice work HB, thanks. Its reasonable to expect Colby to grow in to the job. Its a high visibility job where his faults would be amplified, but successes would be too. If RC is right about him getting his legs under him he could really set himself up nice for some FA bucks.
Lets face it. The Cards are not going to hire another impact slugger.
HBT…………In my experience it is easier for a player if he knows his role and therefore prepares to produce in that role. I’d wager that in TLR’s better years he had an established 3, 4, and 5 hitter in place, and that those guys hit in that order the large majority of the time.
It may benefit the Cardinals if those roles were filled from the start of the season and those hitters stayed in those spots every day with the occasional off day being the only exception.
Tejada may very well be the 5th place hitter if he is signed. He seems to me to be a good fit for that spot. I believe Tony would have full confidence in Tejada’s ability to be a run producer in the 5 hole.
That would probably work better than the formula where its musical chairs every day for all lineup spots except 3 and 4.
The following numbers are RISP by the month:
Freese
April…….500(9-18)
May………294(10-34)
June……..188(3-16)
Jay
April…….000(0-1)
May………100(1-10)
June……..500(1-2)
July……….333(3-9)
august….478(11-23)
Sept……….059(1-17)
Looks like Freese was heading in the wrong direction when injured and Jay was at the end as well. Heck take away the big month by Jay and he hit.153 (6-39)
Looking at Colby over the season he seemed to even out his RISP numbers the last 3 months somewhat. But you are right, nothing spectacular.
April……238
May…….304
June…….192
July………267
August….273
Sept……..259
Count me as someone who does not think it is a requirement to purchase ourselves a ‘proven’ back-up at third base. We have several internal options. I just don’t consider ‘veteran’ depth to be a priority.
On the position player side I want a second baseman, Anderson backing up Molina, Descalso as a utility infielder, and Colby starting in center 150 times.
On the pitching side, I want Westbrook and a decent lefty reliever.
I don’t think we need more than that, honestly.
That is not to say that I wouldn’t be interested if a veteran third baseman or right fielder fell into our laps but I don’t consider it at the top of the shopping list.
It will be interesting to see what Mo does to shore up a few spots in the lineup, or if he just decides that last year was one of those odd years where everything just went wrong and feels like 2011 will be better even with the same cast of characters.
Agree completely…and I am inclined to think things simply went wrong with a good team (outside of Skip at second – which was a terrible move in the first place and lasted WAY too long…but that is an easy fix).
If I am Mo, I am signing a second baseman (I like Hudson), not trading for one, signing Westbrook, and signing a LOOGY.
No trades. Save what little minor league tradeable assets we have IN CASE we need help at third or in right.
I honestly would find it hard to believe if we couldn’t scrap acceptable production at third base, in 2011, out of Freese, Carpenter, and Cox. But, if not, I am sure we would be able to find someone then. I am just not willing to burn money or prospects at that position JUST IN CASE three pretty darn good players (with upside) can’t produce.
And I am probably more unsure about right (assuming a Jay/Craig platoon) than most people – but I can live with it unless something falls into our laps.
In the end, I don’t think this team is far off from being really good.
Don’t give him any ideas RC…………. Andersen has no future……….. it is thought that he doesn’t have the temperament to receive Dave’s boys…………. Pag’s is going to back up in 2011….. If Anderson has any value, it will be extracted soon enough in trade.
BD/Mo likes to avoid the FA market……….they are developing a pattern for doing so………… the fact that Westbrooke isn’t already signed suggest that his agent is aware of this, and also whats available on the market…………..he will wait to see who might offer 3yrs or a little more than what they are saying they envision his market to be. Cardinal choices being obvious, why not wait for an arbitration offer and a chance to field other offers? Why get low balled at 2/16…………..his numbers here were hard won…….to hard…………if he joins a winner……who knows.
Anderson, with an o, is a better player than Pagnozzi. If Anderson has no future, then neither should be backing up Molina. Let’s not let an entire minor league career of awfulness be overshadowed by a few games in the bigs.
Westbrook, without an e, might indeed be waiting to see what others have to offer – but most players do that. Not everything is a conspiracy. If Westbrook enjoyed his time in St. Louis, he will be back. We clearly – and rightly – want him back. If it takes a third year, we will probably do it. See: Lohse, Kyle. And Jake is a far better player.
RC — Freese injured himself on June 5th, pinch hit for a week, then played hurt for 2 weeks before finally going on the DL. He wasn’t the same guy after the injury, so I think you need to throw June data away, or at least use caution with it.
If I were Mozeliak, I’d approach 3B this year as if Freese didn’t exist… a ‘plan for the worst and hope for the best’ strategy. Counting on him is a huge gamble. In a best case scenario, we replace him AND he comes back healthy/effective. That sets up a competition, with the loser going to the bench, another area that needs to be strengthened. And we all know, bench duty for TLR still equates to lots of playing time.
The sample sizes for Jay in early months are too small to be significant. The Sept. number is cause for concern. He got off to a great start but was badly exposed as pitchers figured out how to attack him. His batting average dropped 96 points from July 30th (day before Ludwick trade) to the end of the year. Nobody expected Jon to hit .396 all year, but he was headed in the wrong direction at year’s end.
Colby is the best option on the current roster and he could grow into the job. But it puts a lot of pressure on him, particularly vs. LHP. He needs to make more contact/strike out less.
In my earlier posts, I was trying to show that we don’t have many options and all those we do have are flawed somehow. That’s why we need to look outside and sign a RH bat to replace Ludwick’s 20+ HR and 100 RBI per year. It’s not going to be easy, or cheap. It’s likely to cost us a draft pick (as Brian pointed out) and cash or maybe players in trade.
I feel about Bryan Anderson like I did Anthony Reyes, WC. Set Bryan free and let him try to pick up with another team. He has been riding in a similar boat as Colby, and its tough to keep your head up when all around you are telling you cant do this and that. He can hit at the ML level and I believe a change of scenery would do him good.
It has to be obvious to everyone involved that Bryan will never be catching on a TLR/DD team. And DD seems to be on board for 3 more years. trade him asap for a case of pearls.
I agree that Pags will be backing up even though I didn’t see the great receiving skills that Al Hrab. saw night in and night out in September. I thought he picked a few balls into WP that should have been blocked. But thats neither here or there, Tony/Dave like him and thats that.
My gut tells me that Westbrook will get Lilly like moneys. If his agent is smart he will, that is. He can do better than 2/16, and he has to know that he will be pitching with pretty much the same team on the field behind him in St. Louis so he just may want to look and see if he can find something he considers to be better.
easton — We disagree on 3B. Carpenter hasn’t played above 2A, Cox is fresh out of his 2nd year of college and Freese is in doubtful physical condition. When you add in a Jay/Craig platoon in RF, that leaves us with two proven run producers and Colby… a team much like the one we saw in August and September that was so disappointing and vulnerable to LHP.
True, RC, but replace Skip with a capable, if not gifted, defender at second and our entire rotation is loving life.
How happy do you think Orlando Hudson would make the groundballers (and their godfather)?
If we do sign Hudson and Freese does come back healthy (and I have a feeling he will), our defense would have instantly gone from questionable to above average.
Unless you are one, like I have read elsewhere recently, that truly believes Colby is a below average center fielder.
But I am guessing you don’t.
Chris C………….. makes over 250,000 a start……….Yadi………..or Pagnozzi will receive him……….
Those words are from the echoing hammer blows of Dave/Agent and Mo finding common ground..
Oh just a wild guess………………………. Anderson would be wise to request a trade, avoiding possible chew toy status, that could have Tony burying the topic in spring training…………. that’s my guess.
If the Cardinals wanted Westbrook…….they would have signed him already……….. you can be sure that they offered him at least the Penny deal……….
The team has some money to play with… $2M to replace Dennys Reyes, $5.45M that we paid Ludwick last year and $9M that was committed to Penny. Some of that is eaten up by raises coming to current players. Albert’s situation shouldn’t affect this year’s outlay. And if Skip was moved, there’s another $2.7M.
I think Mo’s priorites include:
1. Starting pitcher.
2. LH reliever to replace Reyes.
3. RH bat to replace Ludwick, likely slotting at 3B.
4. Middle infield upgrade, probably at 2B.
In my view, the 3B need is greater than the 2B need.
Don’t care, HB. All of Freese, Carpenter, and Cox do not need to be capable. Only one. There is no way I spend significant free agent money on a starter with depth like that. We cannot afford, financially, to do so. And it has already made the waves, so to speak, that we toyed with the idea of calling up Cox last year – so I am not sure why we wouldn’t go that route this year – IF needed. He is on a major league contract, after all. We cannot afford, literally and figuratively, to let him take his sweet time through the minors. Carpenter is simply another option who played well last year. Many people, including plenty of scouts and front offices believe the jump from AA to the bigs is not unreasonable, IF need be.
And I hate the term/concept of “proven”. It doesn’t make sense to me. How do they prove themselves without the opportunity to do so? The only way that concept even makes sense is if you REALLY mean ‘veteran free agents’ or something of that ilk…and they are either expensive…or proven to really not be very good (but, hey, they’re proven!).
And I am not sure how I foresee a problem with lefties in a lineup that contains Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus (who was more than fine against them last year), Freese, Molina, Craig, and someone like Hudson. I also expect a bounceback year from Ryan, too. That is plenty of stick in the box against lefties.
I don’t see #3 as a need at all – let alone slotted above Skip’s replacement.
Neglected to mention the $1M Felipe Lopez made last year and $950K for LaRue.
easton — Obviously, we disagree. I have no problem with that, so long as it remains respectful. Looks like we’ll both have to watch and see how things turn out.
Finding a team to take 2.7 worth of Skip?……………….no problem there. Everyone is looking for a happy go lucky free spirited live wire outfielder turn second baseman. The power is hidden. Skip won’t be covered because BD knows Tony will use him. And that’s money talking. Covers half of Tony’s salary…………
Don’t group me in with the folks who believe Skip should be playing 2B in St. Louis, Easton. I’m all for Tyler or Daniel playing that spot if push comes to shove. But if Skip is on this team, even you have to agree, he will be playing on the field full time, somewhere. He is a gritty
player and TLR loves him. And lets be honest, he can hit a little bit.
Signing Orlando would also send DD streaking down through the quad he would be so excited. And a healthy Freese added to Orlando would make for a huge jump as far as the defense goes as well, I concur.
As far as Colby goes, I would expect improvement back in the direction of his 2009 defense in 2011. His being made to play as shallow as he played was one of TLR’s changes from 2009 to 2010 as TLR was more involved in OF play. Lets hope TLR allows DM to posiiton the OF in 2011. Lets let the coaches coach and the manager manage.
The “money off the books” concept doesn’t really work despite the fact that so many people, “journalists” included, use it.
By my calculations, we have approx. $86.85MM committed to a roster of 22 players next year, assuming we bring in a second baseman, a starting pitcher, and a lefty reliever from the outside.
Now, even if you want to take out deferred salary portions as if they aren’t payroll (which they are, accordning to the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), the committed portion is still $80MM for 22 spots.
How much do you expect payroll to go up?
Do you base that on actual payroll (GAAP) or some contrived payroll definition that makes teams look cheap (i.e. current period cash outflows for player compensation)?
My guess is that we have somwhere in the neighborhood of $15MM to spend for 2011, which would represent a fair increase no matter how you slice it.
What do you think $15MM buys us?
Even Westbrook, Hudson, and a LOOGY might be cutting it close.
Easton, Your analysis of the money situation is why I believe that the Cardinals are going at it with pretty much what they went at it with in 2010 with a possible minor change here or there.
The only way to possibly upgrade in a bigger way is by some sort of radical trade involving some of the bigger names on the Cardinals roster.
Lohse?
I do think it is possible that $15MM or thereabouts could land the Westbrook, Hudson, and a LOOGY, though, and that would make a fine off-season for me.
Westbrook -> $9-10MM.
Hudson -> $5-6MM.
LOOGY -> $1-2MM.
That is $15-18MM.
I would consider trading Skip just so Tony won’t play him but I am not sure we’d be able to unload the whole $2.7MM. Plus, it is possible that Jay doesn’t hit and Skip might be needed to platoon with Craig (which would be a fine arrangement, I think, if needed).
Or we could go crazy and trade Carpenter…
He would have value with a one year $15MM contract with an option for another $15MM (and a $1MM buyout) so we could likely get something valuable in return. We could then replace him, essentially, with Westbrook at a $5MM per year savings. That approach, however, would mean we have to lean on both Lohse AND a rookie (hopefully Walters).
I don’t expect that, though.
I’d rather have Carpenter and only one of Lohse and a rookie in the rotation than a mid-level veteran bat and both Lohse and a rookie in the rotation.
easton — I’m sure that ‘money off the books’ and raises to some players that I mentioned are exactly the elements that comprise your big picture view. Two different ways of saying the same thing.
Only if you actually include both pictures. If you list the actual money coming off the books, you should also list the actual raises to existing players.
And that is something I have never seen anyone using the “money off the books” approach actually do.
CC — Re: post #50. According to Joe Strauss, Tyler Greene is out of options.
“….They have a decision to make regarding Tyler Greene, who is out of options.”
Here’s a link to the article, 10/27/10.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/article_3f513516-e210-11df-b0d3-00127992bc8b.html
I honestly have no idea if that is true or not but that is the same Joe Strauss who insisted Jaime Garcia was a Super Two…and he isn’t.
He makes a fair amount of mistakes, actually.
Based on what I know about both, I would bet CC is right.
714–agree with your 15mil figure as funds available, before an opening day budget of 95mil, with funds remaining for the deadline.
they may take the opening day to 100 this season, in an effort to make a good offseason showing before pujols negotiations.
Greene was on the 40-man in 2009 & 2010, splitting time between 3A and MLB. That takes care of two options. Then this…
“Greene was added to the Cardinals 40-man roster in November [2008] to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.”
See the link below for full context:
http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/826322.html
I don’t profess to be an expert on the arcana surrounding options, but I believe that being on the 40-man starts the clock ticking and most players get 3, while there is an unusual way for certain players to have a 4th option year.
Being on the 40-man from 2008-10 likely burnt all three of Tyler’s options, as I read it. But I’m open-minded to facts otherwise.
As noted, Greene was added to the 40-man roster after the 2008 season was over, so he did not use an option that year. Gotta go with CC on this one.
I admittedly know little about the option rules but my first reaction was to wonder how he could have burned an option in November 2008 when he didn’t need to be send down until the following season – therefore only having used options in ’09 and ’10.
I’ve heard that someone may have recouped 43% of Penny’s salary (above policy(‘s) cost ………………
Does that money count for next year? or is that just grease………………..?
Great discussion but everyone has forgotten about the need for a leadoff man. That may color what happens with 2B, 3B, RF. Mo would try for a legit leadoff guy at any of those positions.
Thanks for weighing in Brian… but I’m still not sure.
Options
When a player is on a major-league club’s 40-man roster and in the minor leagues, he is on “optional assignment.” Players have three options and may be sent up and down as many times as the club chooses within those seasons but will be charged with only one option per season. When a player is “out of options,” it means he has been on a 40-man roster during at least three different seasons and in his fourth pro season or later, he will have to clear irrevocable waivers in order to be sent down.” [From the Cleveland Indians Scout.com site.]
What’s unclear is whether an option year relates to calendar year or an actual active part of the minor or major league season. Specifically, when Tyler was added to the 40-man in Nov. 2008, did that count as the 2008 season or the 2009 season? I’m inclined to believe 2008, but can’t say that I know that for a fact.
HB, I was trying to be polite. I am very familiar with the option rules as I write about them in the specific context of the Cardinals each year. Greene has not used three options. I am sure of this.
HB, the active roster doesn’t exist during the off-season, so a player can’t be on the club’s 40-man roster and in the minor leagues at that time. They are either on the 40-man or in the minors. You’ll also note the use of “seasons” instead of “years” in your quote. In November, the regular season is already over.
It’s great to see the large number of people contributing to the discussions. Very interesting reading.
RC is Strauss’ report of Colby selling his house and moving back to Alabama accurate?
My man Colby wants to have a batting cage inside his home available for extra hitting and his current house does not provide adequate space for that so he is in search of a new place that will allow him a batting facility at the residence.
Colby owns a home in alabama already and has been in Alabama since the season ended so its not like he is making a drastic change.
So to end all talk on the subject that new home would indeed be in the greater St. Louis area?
Unless he wants a long commute next year, he’s better find something close to Busch.
I suppose that would trump the suddenly unavailable batting cage move, wouldn’t it RC. Touche. Whose idea, yours or his?
Not mine. My only advice was to do what he had to do to be a better, more consistent hitter next year. This is what he came up with.
Brian & Nutlaw — Thanks for the info. Been a Cards fan since 1964 but have only been an armchair general manager since 2009. Thanks for helping me learn.
I agree with HBT about 3B. Mo has to have Freese and another candidate for 3B.
Carpenter can try out for AAA. That’s his job in 2011. This is a not unimportant role. A couple of injuries and he could be in the majors.
Cox has a ML contract to hold down his signing bonus, not because he is ready to play ML ball. Cox will be opening at Palm Beach.
Good game on TV………………..Molina stays with the big swing……..not so smart……if he gets on base they see the Bullpen……….Timmy wasn’t going to challenge him…………….. Lee losing 2 games cost himself “funny money”…………. Edgar was on balance ready to go OPO…….found some off speed……..why don’t we have a smart player like that………………. he divided the plate, and Lee put it on the dividing line.
Nice try 57……………
Well, I’d say it was good advice taken to heart. If I remember correctly, the results were pretty good until that darned high school cage suddenly got booked solid.
Westy, its not healhy seeing 57 behind every lamp post. It could be me messing with you.
57 is Rowans number…………who are you talking about?
This is a symbolic victory for Nancy Pelosi over the evils of the Bush dynasty…………. justice and a little witch craft……..no doubt………….
The evils of the Bush dynasty……………WC you are killing me
Gad, now I’ve heard everything Westy. Who is Rowan by the way. The only 57 I can think of off hand is Johan Santana.
Giants payroll is about the same as the Cards, and they are giving Zito $18M of it.
Two bad contracts………..and they go out and get a team……….4new players….mid season……….the Buster move…………all to win……..cost some money, some talent………..
Seemed like Timmy was a little down about not getting the MVP………. the hair probably.
RC……….if I told you the truth………….you would convert immediately. If I did it here……before I reach Def-Con 1…………..they would come for all of us………be patient.
WC, If you believe one party is located on moral high ground and the other is taking the country to hell with it you may have been hanging out with Timmy during the celebration, and have been partaking of the pringle can bong water.
A special welcome to all the Post-Dispatch readers arriving here for perhaps the first time. Please check out the other articles listed on the home page and archives and join the discussions. I hope you come back regularly as there is new Cardinals-focused content here most days.
On the subject that likely brought you here, there is another recent Rasmus-related post worth checking out: “New Rasmania over for-sale signs unwarranted”.
RC………Brian has called me back to this thread for a reason I’d guess.
Fox news………..80 million a year TV ………….. world series deal………..Bush’s….the heart of Texas…….day before the election showing how good it used to be………………..just coincidence I guess…………………………. Glen Beck gets the tour of Cardinal stadium …while AP is working out…………..these guys are players………..they think all the time…………each move advancing multiple agendas…………..what a time to live………….what a game to play………….. think what happens if Tony doesn’t chaperon AP to the “Rally”………………………….this is much more interesting issues than that I’m afraid……………………………………………….with the Fed taking MBS’s in payment for debt at the rate they’ve committed too……………the dollar is sliding so fast, you have pretty much just had a 20% tax raise over the next 5 yrs…………with out knowing a thing…………. Republicans are complaining…as they ram it down O’bama’s throat………..they are holding the cash in their banks…………
good thing my money’s in Brazil I guess. You give these guys way to much credit Westie. I can’t speak for BD but Mo and even Tony hasn’t shown me to be that evolved in their thinking. AP, well, he’s doesn’t appear to be much different than most baseball players.