Comparing Mark McGwire’s 2010 St. Louis Cardinals offense to Hal McRae’s 2009 version shows six more runs scored but a 6% drop in home runs.
Last October, in a controversial move, the St. Louis Cardinals hired former home run hero-turned shamed recluse-soon to turn repentant ex-steroids user Mark McGwire as their hitting coach. In the process, his predecessor, Hal McRae, was shown the door after five years.
Among manager Tony La Russa’s many comments at the time:
“The pros overwhelmed the cons… I think I was trusted by our ownership to make the right judgment,” La Russa said, “and I would have been very disappointed if I wasn’t.”
With the 2010 regular season in the books forever, let’s see if the only quantitative measure of McGwire’s results – the numbers posted by his hitters – are pro-Big Mac or con.
During a disappointing season in which the defending National League Central Division champion Cardinals missed the playoffs, the club’s inconsistent hitters were considered by many to have been a key factor in the team’s unexpected shortfall.
Of course, there are a number of variables in any year-to-year comparison, yet the core of the Cardinals offense remained the same from 2009 to 2010. One positive in 2010 was a full-season of $120 million-man Matt Holliday, partially offset by only a half-year of former All-Star Ryan Ludwick.
When all was said and done, across the entire 162-game season, the Cardinals scored six more runs under McGwire in 2010 than they did under McRae in 2009. That works out to a statistically-insignificant rate of 4.54 runs per game compared to 4.51.
Let’s take a look at a number of other stats from the Cardinals offense as well as their rankings within the 16-team National League.
| Cards | AVG | Rank | SLG | Rank | OBP | Rank |
| 2010 | 0.263 | 2nd | 0.402 | 8th | 0.332 | T5th |
| 2009 | 0.263 | 5th | 0.415 | 6th | 0.332 | T9th |
First, we see the team batting average and on-base percentage remained remarkably stable from year to year. The respective stats’ rankings improved in comparison to the rest of the league in a year when pitching was up and hitting was down across the game.
Surprisingly, the slugging percentage of the former slugger McGwire’s Cardinals was down from the year prior, despite an early-season home run burst. The next table breaks down the difference.
| Cards | TB | Rank | 2B | Rank | HR | Rank |
| 2010 | 2227 | T7th | 285 | 8th | 150 | 8th |
| 2009 | 2268 | 7th | 294 | 7th | 160 | 6th |
As indicated above, McRae’s 2009 charges had hit nine more doubles, ten more home runs and collected 41 more total bases than did the 2010 Cards hitters, with better NL ranks accordingly. Another way to look at it is that the team’s 2010 home run count was down over six percent compared to the previous year.
| Cards | R | Rank | BB-IBB | Rank | SO | Rank | GIDP | Rank |
| 2010 | 736 | 6th | 463 | 11th | 1027 | 15th | 124 | T5th |
| 2009 | 730 | 7th | 455 | T13th | 1041 | 14th | 127 | 9th |
Just because McGwire’s hitters didn’t bring more pop doesn’t mean they didn’t show at least some improvement in other areas. As mentioned above, they plated six more runs. The batters also demonstrated a bit more patience, drawing eight more non-intentional walks, fanning 14 fewer times and grounding into three fewer double plays than the year before. In each case, the Cardinals improved their relative standing against the NL.
Remember that the magnitude of all these differences must be considered over a full 162-game schedule, making most of these year-to-year changes relatively minor.
Considering everything, decide for yourself if all the Cardinals McGwire-related activity was worth the benefit received.
Follow me on Twitter.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
Hitting throughout MLB (all 30 teams) was down during 2010, to the lowest level during the past 15 years.
Therefore, if the Cards matched 2009 hitting numbers, as they did, despite the general slump throughout MLB, then they improved their offense relative to other teams.
Can this relative hitting improvement be credited solely to Mark McGwire? No. Mark’s still only a coach, while the players are the guys who swing the bats and deserve the credit.
The NL rankings are included for that very reason, showing the areas of improvement as well as the areas of decline compared to the rest of the league. There were both.
No one should suggest that there are hard and fast numbers to measure the contribution of any coach, but these are the best we have.
I believe there are hitting coaches who are excellent at their craft but the large majority are just advanced scouts. They prepare pitchers tendancies in this count and that count or this situation. They provide little more than scouting reports to their hitters.
Many players on the Cardinals had their own hitting coaches, while you only heard of one guy who had outside help, most had it. It is a learned craft……to be able to hide what you are doing when it includes outside instructors. I know one cat who will have a better formula for secrecy next year.
Jumbo, in my opinion hitting was down because umpires must have come together and agreed to extend the strike zone 3 -5 inches off the outside corner. I say that because the strike zone was almost a Greg Madduxlike strike zone all year long. And hitting suffered because of it.
Well RCW that one cat who will have a better formula for secrecy next will also need to have a better formula for the strike zone.
Its a double edged sword BW. Would you rather have an OBP of .310 or .360 ? If someone is not a 2 strike hitter he better not take too many strikes and get himself into an inordinate amount of 2 strike counts. If you would rather have the increased walks and OBP then you will have to put up with a higher K total. I can cut down on the K’s real quick by having the youngster not take pitches. He will undoubtedly improve his 2 strike approach over the years but it will be gradual I would think. Pick your poison. I believe Colby saw more pitches per at abt than any other cardinal this year so he was told that by someone in red.
You can’t change rotational hitters to linear hitters during a season, and Brendan and Skip may argue that you cannot do it at all.
If you want to change someones approach, you had better do it starting now.
But I’m sure you already knew all of that BW since you seem like an astute baseball guy.
RCW i would like to see Colby improve all the around.Offense and defense.I find the anti-cardinals slant disturbing.Do you reallywant Colby out of Stlouis that much?
Is Colby so fragile he can`t take criticism? Has he not been the posterboy for developing talent within the system? Is the gap between TLR and you and Colby unfixable?
Didn`t the organization give Colby a nice signing bonus and taken care to not overwhelm him? If the opposite has happened speak up and make us aware.
RCW
I never pretented to be a baseball know-it-all.I am just a fan who is disturbed by the apparent inability of the teams latest homegrown wunderkind to get along with the future HOF manager.Since you are voice of the wunderkind i would like to hear if the rift is repairable or not.
Jumbo’s point is a good one. If the Cardinal’s offense stayed the same while overall offense in the league was down 5%-10% than I think that certainly shows improvement. Whether that is attributable at all to McGwire can be debated.
Wasn’t 2010 the year of the pitcher? Pitchers adjusted to hitters. Hitters will have to adjust in return. I am not a big McGwire fan, but I do agree about the video addiction. I think watching video is helpful, but a hitter should not rely on it entirely.
Well BW, I’m sure Colby would also like to improve as an all around player as would any cardinals fan.
I’m not sure I’ve had an anti-cardinals slant at all. I have stated what I think to be problems that the Cardinals have as far as holes in the team but I’m not sure I just bad mouth the cardinals for the heck of it.
I believe Colby would be a more productive player if he was out of TLR’s system.
All I will say about your next question is this….If your boss told you time and time again that you weren’t any good at your job, how long would it take for you to get sick of it? You would probably take it until you had had enough, and then you may say hey fella, get rid of me or get off my back. Criticism? please.
Developing talent? I doubt much of that takes place. Lucky draft pick? maybe.
I don’t have one problem with TLR. He has never been anything but the perfect gentleman to me and my wife. So there is no gap of any sort between me and anybody. I’m quite irrelevent to the situation. I’ve never said one negative word about TLR to Colby. Not one. I worked with Colby at Colby’s request on his hitting. Someone from the cardinals then prevented us from using the facility where we were hitting. And that was that. I never worked with him after that. That was June.
Is the gap between Colby and TLR fixable? I don’t know. This is Colby’s biggest problem. He is a very quiet person……….a big time introvert. The kind of guy that people pick at because he never says anything back and always avoids confrontations of any kind. So he takes, and takes, and takes, and takes, and then he blows up like a roman candle. After he reaches that point he cannot be talked to. a repaired relationship would be historical in Colby’s case.
Colby signed for less than slot so no matter the amount, Colby signed for less than Tyler Greene, and saved the Cardinals 200,000 + bucks.
Taken care not to overwhelm him? What does that even mean? My man, you have no idea what he has put up with because he was Luhnow’s first draft pick. Its been ridiculous.
And BW, I do not speak for Colby….no matter what you may think. He and I don’t talk about the Cardinals……………at all.
RCW
thanks for replying.The fact that Colby has taken crap just because he was the 1st pick by Luhnow is plain dumb………………….Oldschool versus new way is causing a divide that must be fixed for the good of the system and organization.So TLR gets on Colby………………….Is it constructive or just vindictive?
As for Colby saving the team money……………………he still aint playing for peanuts so i don`t feel the sorrow there.He will get his big dollars in time.That said i hope its with the Cards.
So here we have a demanding old school manager and a young laid back introverted homegrown kid trying to co-exist.Like you say you feel Colby would thrive under a different setting (lowkey no pressure) just where might that be? Atlanta?
I believe some of the stuff that happened early on was vindictive and then I believe it was trying to be constructive but by that time, the bridges had been burned with him.
No sorrow in regards to money, you brought up the signing bonus, I just clarified that Colby signed for way less that slot. He saved the cardinals money was my point and he would have signed right after that pick if the cardinals hadn’t signed him probably for more money.
Like I said, bridges were burned….it has very little to do with old school managing vs new school. You see baseball wasn’t the problem initially. Then when the message became baseball nobody was listening. Thats where we are you see.
It has nothing to do with pressure or any of that.
The short answer from him would probably be anywhere……………..else. Because you wouldn’t have any of the underlying issues about luhnow or that mess, which was where all the trouble started.
RCW
Thanks again for answering.Sounds like Colby has a very good chance of going elsewhere.I would be sorry to see that.It sounds like in this case it might be better for all parties if a move was made.I guess we will wait and see what happens next.
Reference comment #11, crdswmn, did someone suggest the Cards had a total reliance on video? I didn’t see that.
No one in particular Brian. I have just heard criticisms from various sources that the players rely too much on video. 100% reliance? I have no information on that.
OK, I was basing my question off your comment #11 that said a hitter should not rely on video entirely. It implied to me that you thought someone was doing that.
The club always has hitters meetings at the start of each series to go over the opposing pitchers. I don’t think video is a part of those sessions, for example.
McGwire thought whatever the level video was being used was too much. Others obviously did not. From this vantage point, it is impossible to determine what a “just right” level would be (if there is such a thing) and if it was ever achieved.
It’s a damn shame that people hold grudges. I have been the victim of that myself and it is not fun. But I learned to deal with it. Whatever was said or done to Colby because of Luhnow was wrong. I don’t know Colby personally. but as a Cardinal fan, I want all parties to get past it and do what they get paid to do. As a flawed human being, I recognize that some things cannot be fixed. Nevertheless, is there any guarantee that Colby won’t run into problems with some other team? This is my $64,000 question.
Good question, crdswmn. The grass is not always greener….
The argument about using video is so ridiculous. Every team uses video to get check pitchers patterns, tendencies, and basically to get a scouting report on the other teams pitchers.
I’ll give you an example…. In June when I was fooling with Colby and trying to teach him some things I would bring up video on a pitcher they were going to face. We would then look at players similar to Colby and how the pitcher had pitched that player. What pitches he would throw in certain counts, situations, etc. Then you compile all that information and you go into the game with an idea of how you will get pitched. It gives you an idea of what pitch you will get the first pitch of the first AB, 2nd, 3rd…etc. what pitch you get when there is a runner on first, 2 strikes, and on and on. It is time consuming but it sends you into a game more prepared than just hearing a scouting report from an advanced scout. Pitchers are creatures of habit and tend to do the same things and do them in similar patterns. To not use this type of information is akin to adding huge numbers without your calculator lying next to you.
Thats what using video is and what it is used for.
Mark thinks that you should look for the ball in certain areas not necessarily specific pitches, which is what video usage tends to get you to do.
Brian wrote, “The grass is not always greener….”
I’ve heard that comment out of my own mouth multiple times in the last year only to get this……”you’re right but it definitely can’t be any worse”.
Taste any worse……not be any worse…………. I have told you the game that’s coming RC………..If I was in your position, I would capitalize on that. Clark Gable………..war profiteering……….. give it some thought.
This is no time to stand up on the battle field………..trust me………..
I realize not everyone can keep up with this………….
Consider this………..Tony always stands up a shields his players……….he takes the flak, he invests in opportunities for struggling players that need it………………………………..
What if he stops…………………………… What if he becomes selective about who he protects? or exposes…………..
The Colby trade request scandal………….Tony all the way…….. Mo was only warned I’m guessing, that it was only intended to be a tactic to shake the young man up……..(rattling the pin ball machine).
Tony could say that was true……………..but the ” improvisational “response (quick draw) from AP seem hardly that to me………………. defensive maneuver all the way as Tony was rapidly becoming the blame E for the slide.
The War is on………..this is Mo”s time………….mid February, things change.
After the 2006 season, the Cards have been built around Albert. Albert in his prime. The results have not been great. Couple of 4th place finishes, late season fade and lay down in 09, second place and pretty much a .500 team until it was over this year. Halliday was brought in to facilitate Albert. That has worked out as to Albert’s personal stats, but not as far as making the team a winner.
The prevailing view seems to be that next year will be more of the same with an upgrade or two in the peripheral players. Maybe it will be good enough for another 2009. That’s about it unless the masterplan is canned. Albert is not going to get even better. He’s been at his peak and it is being wasted.
Word …….BB
Be careful Bling………here comes the wrath of Jumbo…
Alright WC, I’ll bite. What should I do to capitalize on the situation?
I was really hoping that McGwire would help out the team’s BB/K rate, which didn’t happen to any meaningful extent. I would like to see someone get these guys to stop hacking. Fifteenth in the NL in strikeouts? Yuck.
“Pitchers are creatures of habit and tend to do the same things and do them in similar patterns”
This year not so much it seems.
Oh yea, The umpires just decided to quicken up the games with the wider strike zone.
In the last year of my employment I had a boss who was a holy terror. He had no idea what he was doing but didn’t realize it and had the office in an uproar. My co-workers and I never knew what was coming from day to day. At one point I started having panic attacks. Fortunately that boss didn’t stay long. But, at the worst part of that period I remember telling a co-worker that it just couldn’t get any worse.
It did. I lost my job 9 months later. The grass isn’t always greener; sometimes it’s brown.
They spray paint the yards Brown in Arizona and that may seem bad but you know what I’m thinking? You don’t ever have to cut the grass. You have to find the good… you may have to search but there is good in everything.
I’ve seen some statistical studies on pitch usage with different counts. Some pitchers do end up being amazingly predictable. I don’t know that you need video to express these tendencies, per se, but it would certainly seem useful for a batter to get used to a pitcher’s regular pitch trajectories. There’s no question that the more often a batter gets a look at a pitcher during a game, the better he hits against him, so I’m pretty sure that extra looks on the side wouldn’t hurt.
The general criticism of the use of video never made sense to me, either. At all.
I’ll give that some thought RC and work to your e-mail…………
See a pitch………hit a pitch……… is mastery. Video doesn’t hurt…….if perspective is maintained. It rarely is………..if fact, with the division of opinions in the coaching ranks, came weak minded individuals trying to balance the fracture of accountability and responsibility………….. and grab a few speculative hacks at video probable pitches…………..it looked really bad…………. MM wasn’t afraid to shake his head.
RC — sent you a PM about the bet over at the Birdhouse.
If there is good in everything RC, then Colby should be able to find it with the Cardinals.
The Cards play at Wrigley a bunch every year, where I get to eat the best hot dog in the Major Leagues. That is the good Crdswmn.
It seems like a big problem with batters watching video is pitchers know batters watch video. I’ve heard of a pitcher, can’t remember who, that would intentionally tip pitches here and there, when it didn’t matter much, and then when it did matter, he’d tip and throw something else. This was back in the day, but the idea is that pitchers know what batters are doing and can use it against them.
It seems like hitters can hit a little better if they can know what is coming. But then, if they think they know, and are wrong, they look awful. If they have natural talent, they might be better off not playing the video/educated guess game, and instead focus their work on perfecting the ability to see and react, to work through pitches as they come, and be able to pounce on the fat one. That’s what taking a good AB is. That’s what the good hitters have always done. This, I think, is the trap most of the Cards hitters fell into this past year. Colby, in particular, is a shitty guesser. I would bar him from the video room. Make him develop his natural insticts. Worry less about the science of hitting and more about the art.
Mentioning pitch tipping made me remember something I read a while back. It’s a different context entirely, but I’ll post the link anyway, in honor of A-Rod being in the ALCS.
http://www.thesportsfrappe.com/2009/05/traitor-rod.html
Holy cow, that blast by Cruz was sweet. Girardi’s eyes have that glazed look, but the Yanks can score a lot in four innings.
Ref Nutlaw comment #30. Cards being 15th in strikeouts is really good, as in the second fewest. In fact they were only three strikeouts away from having the least Ks in the NL this season.
Arizona was first with 1529 strikeouts, an amazing 500 more than St. Louis. Now, those are some hackers!
Ref RC comment #23. Sometimes young people with limited experience and perspective have to learn valuable lessons their own way. Having said that, it would be unfortunate for the Cardinals if this was one such learning experience.
Come now RC you can do better than that.
Crdswmn…I’m just picking at you.
I know
Just picking back.
A couple other things were mentioned in Bernie’s McGwire column a couple days ago:
“the Cardinals took a higher percentage of pitches in 2010 compared to 2009. The percentage of swings that put the ball in play was slightly better. The swing-and-miss rate went down. The percentage of swinging at the first pitch went down, too. The strikeouts were down.”
He also mentioned than Jaramillo (who is sort of the DD of hitting coaches) went from Texas to the Cubs last year, and Texas hit better and the Cubs sucked.
Yes, in fact I previously tweeted about Jaramillo over a week ago here. What drew my attention to this was the TV commentators heaping lavish praise on Texas hitting coach Clint Hurdle for improving the Rangers’ offense without any mention of the fact that his predecessor (corrected) Rudy Jaramillo was supposed to be the best in the business.
Makes one wonder if there could be life after Duncan…
That’s ‘predecessor’. Yah, I’ve heard that too. Re-enforces the question of just how much the hitting coach has to do with it at the big league level. Mac was hired as much for other reasons though, I suspect.
Okay, 2nd best is a lot better than 15th best. I feel better now.
SI’s Tom Verducci made similar observations to mine, but also noted slightly improved plate discipline under McGwire in 2010. He did not note pitching was improved across MLB and unfortunately, SI’s site does not allow reader comments.
You could tweet him but since he is worse than Abbamondi and has never sent a single tweet I doubt he’d even see it.