Could an unexpected challenger ruin the chase for the Triple Crown?
On Wednesday afternoon, I tuned in to catch the Atlanta Braves take a 10-1 lead over the Colorado Rockies only for the home club to come back to seize an improbable Coors Field-powered 12-10 win.
I left that broadcast with two thoughts, neither of them good.
First was a recollection of the July 6 game, also at Coors, in which the St. Louis Cardinals yielded nine runs to the Rockies in the bottom of the ninth. St. Louis lost 12-9 on a walkoff three-run home run by Seth Smith against Ryan Franklin.
The second was a point highlighted by the Atlanta announcers – the batting championship candidacy of two of their players. One is infielder Martin Prado, currently batting .317. Along with Triple Crown candidates Joey Votto and Albert Pujols (pictured), Prado is among the top five in the National League race along with Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies (.320) and former Cardinal Placido Polanco of the Phillies (.318).
The second Braves name mentioned, the one that hit me out of the blue, is 2010 National League All-Star Omar Infante. Atlanta’s second baseman and leadoff hitter is batting .347 after going 1-for-5 on Wednesday.
That is 24 points ahead of Votto and 25 more than Pujols at the start of the day, but here’s the rub. As of yet, Infante does not have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.
While the baseball world is watching a potential Triple Crown race between the pair of NL Central first sackers, could this unexpected contender come from nowhere to gum up the works?
It is hardly assured.
Through Wednesday, Infante has just 347 plate appearances this season. To qualify for the batting championship, a hitter must accrue an average of 3.1 PAs per game times 162 games or 502 plate appearances in total.
If a hitter falls short of 502, he can be given enough hitless at-bats to get his total to the minimum. Of course, his average drops accordingly. In this case, there is also the necessity for Infante to continue to hit well enough to remain in contention.
Yet, it is certainly possible. For example, in 1996, San Diego’s Tony Gwynn took the NL batting title despite having 498 plate appearances.
Here is one case, loaded with assumptions. Any of them may not come to pass, invalidating the conclusion. Still, it offers an example of what could happen here in 2010.
In the second half, Infante is averaging just over 3.9 plate appearances per game. The Braves have 35 games remaining after Wednesday. If Omar plays every day, he would accrue another 137 plate appearances for a total of 484.
To calculate his qualifying batting average, he would be assessed a 0-for-18 addition to his then-current average to reach 502.
There is one other consideration – the difference between plate appearances and at-bats. Today, Infante has 347 PAs and 326 at-bats. Keeping that ratio constant for the remainder of the season would leave him with 455 at-bats.
Another big assumption is that Infante could maintain his .347 average through those 455 at-bats (and 484 plate appearances). If so, he would have 158 hits at season’s end.
Adding the 0-for-18 for the batting championship qualification would mean he would have 158 hits in 473 at-bats (455 plus 18). That would drop his qualifying average 13 points to .334.
That would still be more than good enough to top both Votto and Pujols – given their averages today, of course.
The bottom line is a suggestion to keep an eye on Infante as well as the two Triple Crown contenders over the final five weeks. I know I will be.
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Isn’t there any good news out there?
Halladay lost so he didn’t catch up to Waino. That’s the only good news I know.
Cincy pitching might be melting down. That’s good too. Well, we will see what is in store in D.C. Colby might be back this weekend. That could be good, or not, we’ll have to see on that too. Later.
I would call this incredible……………..
Howard gets a big chunk………falls in it………Werth gets battered for three weeks over the trade fire coals………….add a few injuries………….and the Phillie’s look like the Idol worshiping Cardinals groupies.
We have a vital discussion in this group about the problems surrounding idol worship………..we mark it’s cruel symptoms on a daily basis almost…………………..we see the ravages of a flat dugout when none are encouraged to voice their encouragements or concerns……………..
” Hey, common Matty……..pick up Pujols for us” …………. “lets get something going here”…….
You won’t here it………you won’t here a thing…………….. the funny one is Jay. He just goes to the plate…………if he hits it he runs…….if he doesn’t……he goes back and takes a seat……….. doesn’t say a word……………
All we need is more self interested AP……………..going after a F’ing triple crown, over all considerations………..like squeezing a 3/0 pitch through the middle instead of taking the walk…….. I’m sure no one on the bench notices……..its his prerogative.
Teams all over the league chasing 10 run leads…………and we can’t move against three………..because AP is having a bad day….and MH can’t time his leg kick………..and now Jay is waggling into his load, instead of setting………….The idea that MM would big dog the dugout just didn’t happen……………….
Watch what the Reds do to the Pirates…………… we have no sacks………………
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-marlinsfinancials082410
Owners have nothing to fear from the press. This dolt Passan says:
“. . . Miami-Dade County agreed – without the consent of taxpayers – to take $409 million in loans loaded with balloon payments and long grace periods. By 2049, when the debt is due, the county will have paid billions.”
And then tells us who the bad guys are:
“. . . the real misdeed occurred when the head of a professional sports franchise misled the public”
Its a baking scam BB, in which the owners are either in on at the banking level….or getting kick backs for setting it up……………………………… there are many different ways to run the this ruse.
Been waiting for Westie to fill us in on how the leaked financials are part of the Pujols conspiracy.
Well, one usually doesn’t end up with that much money by honest and law-abiding means.
You’re getting warm Nut……………why was everything arranged before Bush left office………..Duh.
BD had a different twist.
For the challenged……………
BD said that market forces will decide how much Pujols makes…………….not historic precedent.
That can’t possibly be a slip by our fearless leader………it was a communication to Lozano……
What it means is that during this winters negotiations……….in a market that won’t even have Albert in it, his position will reflect its temperament.
Traditionally that market can’t be said to be narrowing till late January………………..
Some considerations……… this is way beyond Tony’s grace period for deciding his future…. suggesting to be honest, that it will be decided for him……………………. no matter what BD does, letting Tony go would be the smart play……….forcing AP against the market forces with an attitude……………at least positioning him to listen to exceptable trade scenerious……..No way BD goes into the option year without some agreement……..if it came to that………there would be at least a new coach that would vilify the Pujols prerogatives………
To be honest……….if Dusty hasn’t signed that extension by mid September……… he is going to LA………………Torre coming to St Lou and Tony going to Cincinnati……………….That’s something to watch, although all three moves are some what of a long shot.
How bad is this team really…………… with Pittsburgh’s rotation……….we are 25 games worse than they are right now……….at least…………………….Brendan is a good defender, but he never makes the Bigs in another organization. He is squirrel………… Skip the same……..he doesn’t even meet Pirate standards for athleticism. etc, etc…….
War is hell………..and the commissioner is at play…………… Phille’s are down…….Houston is ours now to……….to………..oh yeah, that’s right. Carp against Wandy……….tough draw big guy.
SS Felipe Lopez
CF Jon Jay
1B Albert Pujols
LF Matt Holliday
RF Randy Winn
C Yadier Molina
2B Skip Schumaker
3B Pedro Feliz
P Chris Carpenter
from the Comments section of Derrick Goold’s “Underwhelming vs. underdogs”:
“Richfromiowa” said on: August 26, 2010, 3:13 pm
Cards are 32-29 against teams with losing records, while the Reds are 41-21 against those same teams. That stat shows this problem for the Cards has been going on all year, so don’t be surprised to see it continue against the Nats and Astros. “Underwhelming vs the underdogs” will be the biggest reason if this team misses out on the playoffs. It would really be too bad, because the Cards have shown some mettle against the good teams in the league. It’s just hard to fathom what’s going on here.
“dairyman” said on: August 26, 2010, 11:55 am
Although it would seem the unearned runs deserve much of the credit (blame?) for the Card’s performance (or lack thereof) against lesser teams. But it’s not really just one thing with this team, is it? Deficiencies vary from game to game–poor defense, lack of timely hitting, poor execution during at bats, uneven baserunning–it seems the Cards fall into one or more of these pratfalls at the most inopportune times. It results in a team which expects to lose rather than scrap its way to a win.
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/article_9b625c80-b129-11df-93bd-00127992bc8b.html?mode=comments
As I have said before, we may or may not reach post season play, dependent upon lapses in our offense, meltdowns in our bullpen and the danger of burn-out in our Starting Rotation.
This must be spoiler week. Astros swept the Phils.
Must be a lot of parity in major league baseball if the worst team in baseball (that’s us since we’re 25 games worse than the Pirates!) is only 1/2 games out of the playoffs.
Memo to Cardinals: Don’t make me have to go get ice cream tonight.
What must have been Jon’s first GIDP saved Albert, with his groundout, from adding to his collection…
That was an interesting run down.
The play was definitely at home and the Cardinals’ heads up performance effectively snuffed-out any hope of Washington scoring first.
Matt’s near-homer is more impressive than a meek groundout, but the effect is the same…
That, my fellow “challenged” ones, was impressive! Attaboy, Yadier!
Go, squirrel, go!
Thanks to Yadier and Skip, St. Louis is first to draw blood. May we draw it in every inning of this game!
I wonder what Oquendo is thinking when his players ignore him?
Washington thought that they were going to start-off with some smart small-ball (advancing the runner with a sacrifice), like last inning, but Chris and Yadier made damned sure that the plan backfired….
At 29 pitches in 2 innings, Chris ain’t doing too badly…
Zimmerman is certainly back to making quick work of us…
I read that the Nats are not likely to let this kid go beyond 5 innings.
Flip is having a terrific game!
TLR made a mistake starting Lopez. Brendan would have made those plays. Dumb Tony.
This is definitely a rough game for Chris: In addition to everything else, he’s been pitching into too many full counts (at this rate, he won’t last beyond 5 innings).
TLR rarely makes a move within a game………………Lopez is hanging by a thread anyway……….does he sit him mid game……………………..he would in the 6/7th anyway……..???????
That was a meaningful home run…
With two men on, it appears that Albert’s homer has ignited a rally…
All right! Yadier loads ‘em up, by taking one for the team!
The squirrel did it again!
Skip Schumaker is now hitting a respectable .270!
Flip may as well give us a “productive out”…
Q. Who has the higher OPS for the month of August Jon Jay or Alan Craig?
Marquis can no longer pitch… and neither can he hit….
115 pitch Carp 57 ? Surely you jest.
I wonder if Carp had something to say about Brendan coming in?
Only a Prosecuter asks questions to which he already knows the answer…
“Q. Who has the higher OPS for the month of August Jon Jay or Alan Craig?”
- Only a Prosecuter asks questions to which he already knows the answer…
Not just prosecuters 57. Trial practice 101.
Now at 65 pitches, last inning’s smooth sailing served as a refreshing reprieve for what was becoming a beleaguered pitcher! Chris is well known for getting tougher as the game progresses…
Unless he has another rough inning, Chris just may get us through 7…
10 hits, but only 1 of those runs was earned… Nevertheless, there are no outs, bases are loaded and Chris is going past 90 pitches… He won’t be pitching next inning…
Carp is just not Carp tonight.
He’s gassed CRD……………….question is……..are we going to have more CY Young posturing or do we go to the pen and try to win the game…………………there is your answer its Colby
IP-6.0 H-10 R-6 ER-3 BB-1 SO-1 = Quality Start?
Colby Rasmus = 5 pitch cigar store indian strikeout…
“Oh, for…!” Another crappy night for Jon…
I’m listening to the Washington feed……….they are trashing Lopez, as they have the whole game.
Where will it go……………. he will sit for awhile………………..
Colby’s beard didn’t hit either. Beautiful foul ball though….that was in his contact zone anyway.
Good eye to take the ball an inch high for strike 3………………..
4game series………..looks like they’ve got Jay dialed in……………whose gonna get it done.
That’s not how you want to start an outing, Kyle… A full-count walk?
What is it? Too much rest? Damn it!
TLR………..is sure………..good …………and ……..patient…………………………..
A little ice cream might be tasty.
Tony is a genius!
The deficit is only 3 runs: The boppers are coming to bat and if they can’t get it done, we’ve got small-ballers and B-Teamers who can…
The hope is being kept alive for that triple crown. Now Matt has an opportunity to keep the hope alive for this game!
Perhaps Winn or Yadier will knock Albert in…
All right B-Teamer! Now, it’s up to the small ballers, led by Yadier!
I got pizza instead.
We will have one final opportunity to avoid another 3rd consecutive loss and a dumping to 4 games behind…
Is Pedro leading another small ball brigade?
I’ll be… Aaron is continuing the barrage, just like on so many other occasions in the recent past!
If the boppers “can’t get it done, we’ve got small-ballers and B-Teamers who can”! Attaboy, Brendan!
A helluva time for Jon to go 0 for 5!
They’re really planning on Matt to ruin everything for us once again!
This is a really HUGE at bat for Matt!
All RIGHT! They smacked Matt and smacked in the tying run? Who would have scripted THAT?
I think Winn is a good man for a sac fly…………………………..
Quite a game. Not the most usual of comebacks, but we’ll take it!
Now if Frankie can nail it down.
Considering the DP………….I was guessing Tony to squeeze with Molina…………Oh well……….
Yadier can be forgiven for that characteristic GIDP… We’re ahead and he’s contributed early on…
Franky! Franky! Franky! What are we going to do with you?
I’ve said it before, the position of “Closer” on a pennant contending team is no place for a weak-armed contact pitcher (who fails to routinely induce groundballs)…
I hate this.
The Molina double play stings twice………it left Franklin in the game…………….How many more of these guys have an X on their backs?
Why, he just stood there “like a cigar store indian”! 2.89 Burnet is hardly a AAA pitcher: .200 Craig is hardly a Major League hitter…
Time for our relief corp to show it’s mettle: Time for nail-biting, wincing, grimacing and cringing!
That last pitch was not a strike 57.
In defense of Franklin…………..that was the call, and he would have hit the glove………..Yadi took a clever chance…………………..must of been?????????what??????????
That was a hellish 12 pitch AB: A hard-earned strikeout!
Time now for a couple of small-ballers to set the table for King Albert!
It comes down to Matt AGAIN!
Imagine! Being a Clean Up batter and getting lifted for a pitcher to hit in your place! Is Matt injured?
Who is gonna jump all over Lohse for that?
Matt was hit by a pitch on the hand. Don’t know extent of injury.
My GameCast only indicates that Matt was hit by the pitcher (I imagined that he took one in the shoulder or on the back of a thigh). I sure hope that his hand is okay. Damn it!
Fernando’s pitch count was high, but he looked sharp and did the job with two groundouts…
57, Matt took it solid on the hand/wrist and crumpled to the ground. Stayed in for while then was pulled. They showed a couple closeups, looked swollen and bruised. Not good.
Even worse, Albert chasing a foul tried to leap up on the tarp roll and slipped. Came down on foot/ ankle, crumpled to the ground in pain. After a while he got up and hobbled around and stayed it the game. No telling what tomorrow will bring. They might both be out. Might have to put a boot up Coby’s butt to get him out there.
Randy Winn is the clutch hitter of the game so far (he’s gone 4 fo 6 with 3 RBI)
All of that is absolutely TERRIBLE news, blingboy… Thank you! I can’t deduce any of that from the GameCast… With the prospect of both of our Boppers gone for at least one game, we gotta be thankful for our courageous small-ballers and B-Teamers.
If we lose this game, the finger of blame cannot be pointed at the guys who gave us 10 runs…
Although his past 2 outings were rough, Fernando has proven that his 2.20 ERA is no fluke… He also has 14 K in 16 IP…
Pujols takes the field 57. Announcer says he came up the dugout stairs ‘gingerly’. He’s up 4th next inning.
Correction: Make that 15 K in 17 IP
We can only hope that Albert is not exacerbating the injury by bravely playing through…
Correction: Make that a 2.12 ERA and 16 K in 17 IP
Wow. High pop up foul down RF line behind first. Right fielder and second baseman couldn’t quite get there. Albert never moved. Not good.
Just showed him walk over to the mound and up on it and back. No limping or anything.
What a catch from Brendan!
I’m watching now with interest…………..who is a hero here………..
My ISP bumped me just as Fernando was getting Kennedy to pop out… I got back just in time for Jon to go 0 for 7….
Brendan?????????…………Jay 0-7………….he is lost…………… Miles does his job…everyone else ??
Is this going to be the Mets?
Who will dare to jump all over our Ace for that?
Brendan never gave up trying to pull the ball…………even when his only responsibility was to move the runner over…………….. just like Yadi………
I thought that the 20 inning loss to the Mets took the cake: This one is taking on all the characteristics of another odd ball… All we need is for an outfielder to pitch, at the same time that a pitcher is in the outfield!
Having an emergency catcher like Stav out in RF would let Tony use the backup catcher to pinch hit.
Hero, Westy? Come on. Law of averages, somebody might do something, that’s where we are.
The game is on the line and what does Blake do? Smack Nyger Morgan? In retaliation for Matt’s injury?
We can’t blame it on the offense (8 of the 10 runs were driven-in by small-ballers and B-Teamers): As I have said before, we may or may not reach post season play, dependent upon lapses in our offense, MELTDOWNS IN OUR BULLPEN and the danger of burn-out in our Starting Rotation.
Tough bouncer up the middle goes off Miles’s glove. No time for heros.
I would be very surprised if they made the playoffs at this juncture.
Let’s hope Matt and Albert are not gimped up. Niether would be surprising from how it looked.
Tomorrow we could have the worst lineup in the history of baseball.
Don’t give up the ship crdswmn.
Tomorrow will be a determinant… I fully believe that, at the end of tomorrow’s game, we will know if we are capable of turning it around for the final time or truly fading and finished with regard to post season play.
A lot will be riding upon the condition of our two Boppers…
Let’s not hold our breath waiting for Flip to get the start at short again. He looked really bad and Brendan looked really good.
Horton is talking about how sharp Salas looked. What? He walked two in a row and needed a Tony visit.
Except for Ryan’s amazing catch of the can-o-corn on the first base side of the bag Salas would have taken the loss as his first walked guy, then on second due to the second walked guy, would have scored.
The game was lost when Lopez took the field in the 1st inning. Stupid, stupid move.
The problem here BB is that Lopez is a “long cycle” head trip…………… It is well known. He has been overused, and that is a known risk…………….. he may not come back……….he hasn’t for anyone else. Once the rejection starts, he can’t deal with the stress…………and this is St. Louis!!!!!!!!
That is just one of the problems………………Tony’s use of Franklin in the 8th..behind 2 runs…….that tells you a little about his suspicions…….. he was getting ready to pinch hit for him after we took the lead……….another tell.
Craig needs a hit or to move the runner………..and he fouls off pitch after pitch trying to turn a ball to the left?????????? A couple of easy win coming up………..but Sunday could get ruff.
Good Night, guys… I’m bursting with negativity right now and need very much to put on some soothing music and drift-off…
Why Sunday Westie? Wainwright is pitching.
It beats me why Hawksworth is still on the roster.
In 2006, Josh Kinney did a fine job helping the Cards to the playoffs. In 2007-08, he was out after two operations. He was not as sharp in 2009 and sent to Memphis. But now Kinneys seems to have built himself back to where he was in 2006 and has pitched well at AAA. Its baffling why Kinney has not been called up to replace Hawksworth or MacDougal, who can each be counted on to light up the scoreboard.
I hold Mo to blame about this.