What Albert Pujols is swinging at, where and resulting contact rate leads to a lower slugging percentage in 2010.
By Ian Walton
A popular topic of conversation at The Cardinal Nation Blog has revolved around Albert Pujols’ declining slugging percentage. The following article will attempt to demonstrate that this is likely a result of Pujols being less selective in which pitches he hits.
There is little doubt that Pujols has lagged behind his normal power production this season. His .570 slugging percentage lies somewhat below his career .625 mark and noticeably below his .653 and .658 rates in 2008 and 2009. In 2010, he is hitting home runs every 5.3% of his at-bats and doubles at the exact same rate. Compare that to his career rates of hitting a home run in 7.1% of his at-bats and a double in 7.5% of his at-bats.
| Year | % Swinging Outside Zone | % Contact Outside Zone | % Swinging Inside Zone | % Contact Inside Zone | % Pitches Thrown Inside Zone |
| 2007 | 18.3 | 72.3 | 59.0 | 93.9 | 49.9 |
| 2008 | 21.6 | 75.1 | 63.8 | 95.8 | 47.1 |
| 2009 | 22.9 | 68.2 | 66.6 | 94.4 | 45.0 |
| 2010 | 28.3 | 76.5 | 65.2 | 88.6 | 43.7 |
| Career | 19.8 | 66.1 | 65.6 | 92.1 | 49.1 |
As can be seen above, opposing pitchers have been throwing fewer pitches within the strike zone to Pujols in each of the past four seasons. This is certainly understandable behavior, as Pujols is unquestionably one of the strongest hitters in the game today. However, in each of the past four seasons, Pujols has increased the rate at which he swings at pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, with 2010 showing a dramatic increase over years past. Somewhat surprisingly, he has actually increased his contact rate at balls thrown outside of the strike zone this season as well.
The above graph displays the location of each pitch thrown to Pujols in 2010 that resulted in a home run from the perspective of the catcher (except for his home run on 6/15, where data is for some reason not available). Aside from one high four-seam fastball, these pitches are located in the center portion of the zone vertically and the outer half of the plate. Not a single home run was hit outside of the strike zone.
So in summation, opposing pitchers are throwing Albert Pujols fewer strikes while Pujols is swinging at more balls. As he is only hitting home runs on balls thrown to a particular portion of the strike zone, he is understandably hitting for less power this season.
Swing Rate data was provided by FanGraphs.
Pitch F/X data was provided by Brooks Baseball (though the graph is mine this time).
Nice job Ian, thanks. The doubles are probably hitting the mistakes as well. Interesting that he can’t hit the inside pitch for a homer anymore. Very interesting, that was a staple of his repertoire.
Thanks, bb. It took some work to put it all together, but I found his specific home run pitch location to be somewhat unusual.
Unusual in what way? Seems like all his homers are mistakes right down broadway.
Oh, not that he’s hitting them there. Just that he isn’t hitting them anywhere else.
However, as a line drive hitter, he probably shouldn’t be expected to dig down and blast lower pitches like hitters with uppercut swings. I agree with you that nothing inside being hit for a homer is interesting.
Yes, OK. I agree, not even one. Unusual indeed.
Nutlaw has shown me that Albert has a greater swing rate at balls outside the strike zone this year than last year (and especially the years before that). Since he is making contact with more of those balls (outside the strike zone) than ever, the lessened amount of power indicates that those contacts are not made on the “sweet” part of the bat. In corroboration with Nutlaw’s findings, Ian observes, “Not a single home run was hit outside of the strike zone”! Now, here is the question: Understanding the reason that Albert will not (can not) hit home runs at the usual rate, why is he hitting below .320 and not leading the league in batting average?
I have noticed that he is chasing low and outside pitches more than I have seen him do before.
CFS, of note, I am Ian.
Presumably, swinging at bad pitches would result in more outs as well, but I’m assuming that it has more effect upon his power.
I have noticed that too crdswmn, and somehow he is often able to pop them up. The other thing I’ve noticed is that since Albert almost never swings at the first pitch, pitchers used to put it right in there to get ahead on the count. Anymore, they don’t seem to think that is necessary. On the other hand, Matt now seems to be taking a lot of first pitches right down the middle, I noticed that last night.
Colby looks like he has never tried to hit a baseball in his life sometimes. He is just not any good a looking bad inconpsicuously.
Allowing for that big first-pitch beach ball to go sailing past, right down the middle, has always been Albert’s way. Chasing after that “low and away” is something which began to occur in August of last year. Considering Albert’s undeniable greatness, I am mystified by both of those practices…
Colby’s favorite pitch (his “sucker ball”) is “low and in”: When he connects, it’s like a golfing motion and always lifts the ball high over the fairway (and often into the rightfield bleachers). I call it his “sucker ball”, because he will swing at it almost everytime that it is thrown. What irks me is what results in the observation that “He is just not any good at looking bad inconpsicuously”. There are times when it seems that he’s a patient disciplinarian with nerves of steel, eliciting deep counts and inducing walks and there are times when he eagerly swings at ANYTHING; looking utterly foolish and as though “he has never tried to hit a baseball in his life”.
Nutlaw/Ian: Now, with your corrective elucidation, I know why “Ian’s” observations corroborate so well with “Nutlaw’s”!
“Colby looks like he has never tried to hit a baseball in his life sometimes. He is just not any good a looking bad inconspicuously.”
A very, very interesting point BB. He made a very nicely paced swing last night I think, gracefully “excepting” a nice off field single. The absence of this tack at all his plate appearances raises some interesting questions about his priorities.
Mozeliak described Penny as “doing well and encouraging” shortly before Thursday night’s series opener versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
“There’s a chance he could be available, if not against the Dodgers (July 15-18) then against the Phillies (July 19-22).” Mozeliak said. “But I don’t want to get that far ahead.”
Penny last appeared on May 11. The club initially projected his return for two to three weeks. His throwing program was modified after Penny cited lingering discomfort.
Looks like he is a keeper………unless we here from him about the need to delay…………..
The Brewers are a mess. Normally I would say they are capable of feeding on Cardinal decay, but last nights win showed little intensity by them. They are washed up as a team. They will win one more though, at least.
YM, if you a watch such things, is showing signs of the disease. He is exhibiting symptoms that really aren’t part of his makeup. He is empathic I think to a friends exaggerated immune system. Another way to visualize this is to imagine that Yadi has washed ashore on a small island, (in the Mississippi )and isn’t finding much sustenance there. The islands lone inhabitant unable to share much of what there is. Especially the believe that this is not a hostile world. Both will go to the All star game. Both fearful. One remembering taking a real beating there last year. A beating that has left deep scares and bad memories.
I will dare to pinpoint the very event in which the “beating” to which Westy refers began to manifest itself: ‘Twas the charity demonstration prior to the annual Home Run Derby last year. From that occasion onward, despite being the chief ambassador of St. Louis and de facto host of Major League’s All Star Game, those who love Albert most began to notice that the roaring inferno had been diminished to a crackling fire. No, the “real beating” was neither the humiliation at the Home Run Derby nor the All Star game itself, but the chain of disappointments since. As we’ve all witnessed, the “deep scars” and lingering “bad memories” have indeed become complicated, if not compounded.
I’d say that the changes noted by Ian (Nutlaw) are actually ingenious adjustments, designed to masterfully disguise what I believe to be a profound inner hurt which may never be disclosed to the general public. I’m hoping that Yadier, rather than “showing signs of the disease”, will rediscover his stride and go to into the break in the midst of an exciting upsurge.
With regard to our remaining three games against Milwaukee… Like I said yesterday, Gallardo (their Ace) is their ONLY decent starter and Axford is a budding star closer: Aside from those two, the entire staff is crap. The Brewers are an offensive powerhouse with one of the worst pitching staffs in the major leagues. Despite the fact that our pitching has generally done a great job against offensive powerhouses, our offense has a checkered history against mediocre pitching. Realistically, we will therefore take only 1 of the 3 remaining games. We now know that Blake Hawksworth followed-up his success with another success (he lost ONLY because he got nothing more than a single run of support from one of the league’s most vaunted offenses).
Judging by the Big League poise that we’ve witnessed in Jaime, we have no doubt that he will come to the mound this evening as confident as ever. The problem emanates from the fact that we are now at mid-season, when many clubs have documented his attributes and limitations. If he has been solved to any degree, Milwaukee’s hitters will prove to be one of his biggest challenges.
Watch this terrific video then pair it with the data above and be glad that Pujols does not have to face Mariano Rivera regularly.
That is a great clip Brian……………… death by symmetry to all batters who aspire greatly. Pinpoint accuracy.
Some of us can remember when the magic abandon him for awhile, almost ending his career. Do you remember when Brian, and what caused it. The subject is timely.
Oh yeah………….great style 57…………..tell be about the “charity demonstration”. What was that?
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
read the quotes on this page……………….
I believe Rivera’s slump was in 2005, but I don’t recall the circumstances.
Mariano Rivera rhp
3 years/$45M (2008-10)
* 3 years/$45M (2008-10)
o re-signed by Yankees as a free agent 12/17/07
o 08:$15M, 09:$15M, 10:$15M
o no-trade protection
* 2 years/$21M (2005-06), plus $10.5M 2007 club option
o 05:$10.5M, 06:$10.5M, 07:$10.5M club option
o 2007 guaranteed with 60 GF in 06 OR 114 g 05-06 (vested 2006)
* 4 years/$39.99M (2001-04)
o $8M signing bonus (paid over 4 years, 2001-04)
o 01:$7.15M, 02:$7.45M, 03:$8.5M, 04:$8.89M
o no-trade clause 2001-02; out clause after 2002
o avoided arbitration 2/01 ($10.25M-$9M)
* 1 year/$7.25M (2000), lost arbitration ($9.25M-$7.25M)
* 1 year/$4.25M (1999)
* 1 year/$0.75M (1998), renewed 3/98
* 1 year/$0.55M (1997)
* 1 year/$131,125 (1996)
* 1 year/$0.19M (1995)
* signed 2/90 as amateur free agent from Panama
* $3,000 signing bonus
* agent: Fernando Cuza
* ML service: 14.105
Check his career stats calender.
Neither a man nor a crowd nor a nation can be trusted to act humanely or to think sanely under the influence of a great fear. -Bertrand Russell, philosopher, mathematician, author, Nobel laureate (1872-1970)
Thank you for the video link, Brian: It tells you all you need to know about Mariano Rivera. It has always seemed to me that, whenever I’ve watched him (including the final Interleague game against the Dodgers), when he is not striking-out righties, he is breaking the bats of lefties. In fact, I’ve witnessed very few games in which his wicked cutter to lefties did not break at least one bat!
As I write this, the Reds just scored 9 runs at the top of the 7th inning: They’re demolishing the hapless Cubs 10 to 0…
Great bunch of quotes, Westy! In this age, in which “a nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore” (Yogi), one of my all-time favorites appeared at the very last…
“Money doesn’t talk; it swears”
- Bob Dylan
So now the team decides to DL Luddy after going without a bat off the bench for how long?
Lopez, 3B
Rasmus, CF
Pujols, 1B
Holliday, LF
Stavinhoa, RF
Molina, CF
Ryan, SS
Garcia, P
Greene, 2B
Against a lefty, it makes good sense to put switch-hitting Flip where he belongs. It ain’t gonna hurt either, to put Colby in the 2 slot and to put our Memphis Redbird PCL All-Star, Tyler Greene in tonight’s line-up…
blingboy! When I saw, “Molina, CF”, I damned near had a heart-attack!
I wouldn’t consider it any more absurd than sending him up there with two down in the 9th and needing a baserunner to have a chance.
The 2010 version of our club has been riddled with that which is ridiculous and steeped in that which is absurd…
This is one of Tony’s worst line ups of the year………..Colby in a funk……and Molina 6th…………..tragic. These guys will pitch around 2 hitter’s to get to Yadi…………..
Our only hope is if they take a dump on the mound.
Don’t count on them taking a dump on the mound tonight. Narveson (a Cardinal product) was the reliever they tapped to be a starter when they sent Suppan to the bullpen and he’s been reasonably effective ever since. Despite the mediocre 5.00+ ERA, he went 8 innings, 4 hits and 0 ER in his last appearance (against the Mariners). If our big boppers continue to suffer from narcolepsy, we’ll make yet another mediocre into a pitching sensation…
Much of the time a pitching machine set up on the mound could shut us down.
The game is being telecast to Afghanistan for the people serving there. Maybe some hustle and enthusiasm will be in order.
We actually DO have a few guys on the team whose mentalities and emotions are prone to be sparked by the prospect of a performance for our troops…
That’s rich BB…………
I’ve got to remember to use this one……….
“My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?”
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Oh yeah……….that was in response to this……………….
“I would say it’s the end of the world as we know it. …
I am speechless by that contract. … It’s unbelievable.
Literally, it will take the sport down, that contract.
We’re right back to the ridiculous contracts. It can’t be.”
- Marlins president David Samson,
on reports Ichiro Suzuki would sign a $100 million contract
Heck no………there ain’t any colluding going on.
In other words, Westy, it’s just like the Dylan quote…
Now that we’re coughing in the Reds’ exhaust 2 games back, here’s hoping (against hope) that we don’t tack on another half-game…
Hopefully our guys don’t enjoy looking at that rosey Red tailpipe.
(cough! cough!) What?
Its white hat day I see. Looks weird.
Garcia’s got a live arm tonight.
THAT was really heads up baseball on the part of Yadier! Damn!
Did I neglect to praise Jaime for striking out the mighty Prince?
That’s a momentum stealer………lets convert it.
Our Lead-Off done led off! THAT’S converting the stolen momentum!
Is our team actually behaving like the St. Louis Cardinals?
Those two seeing eye grounders are as good as ropes.
Lets hope for a mistake to Albert.
Well… a run’s a run!
yeah……a run……….Ball has to be out of the infield with no outs……….
Pshaw and harumpf
A great “off-the-wall” double by Mighty Matt!
“Pshaw and harumpf” at THAT!
We aren’t going to stand for it…………..
Nice. How very lucky we are to have had the best player in baseball in the middle of the ralley.
If only Yadier were just a bit faster… As it is, he’s down to .230
Second game in a row Molina hits a ball that is bobbled……..and he isn’t running. Maybe the brewers are doing it on purpose? to tease me………….
Are you talking avg or weight, 57?
Well, we get to find out if Garcia is any good at holding a lead.
All right! Jaime rings-up the poisonous and deadly McGehee!
All right! A snappy double-play, gift-wrapped for our Jaime!
Thought I’d mention that 99 yr old Jamie Moyer has struck out 7 in 5 2/3 going for his 10th Win. He trails 2-0. (1 ER)
blingboy, no self-respecting big leaguer would ever want his average to sink below his weight… Mendoza Molina had better get with it!
I’ve been keeping an eye on the Philly game too (also, only for the sake of rooting for Jamie)
Hey, Jaime! You NEVER want to walk the pitcher (even if he IS a good batter)
Corey Hart is a home run threat! Jaime needs to either strike him out or get him to ground out…
Hart caught a break (he was actually struck-out one pitch ago)…. damn it!
Whew!
At 50 pitches after 3 innings, Jaime MAY make it through the 6th…
Is Flip a genuine Lead-Off man, or what?
That was a great sac bunt by Colby (he damned near beat-out the throw)
We’ll settle for a sac RBI out, Albert! “A run’s a run”"…
(Pshaw and harumpf!)
Jaime is rollin’ along! If ain’t strikin’ ‘em out, he’s makin’ ‘em ground out! Magnificent!
Garcia is gaining momentum………………… A lead is a big pressure release. He has good stuff, marginal control……………..
At 59 pitches after 4 innings, he could actually rack-up a complete game! Imagine!
Molina grounded-out to shortstop… so what else is new? It’s just a good thing that we didn’t have a runner on first…
Ol’ “Ofer Ryan” swung himself down to .203. From the standpoint of midseason, it doesn’t look like he’s returning to form. I think that he should have begun growing the moustache BEFORE the season began and not after…
A fast ball with a tail and a change-up 20mph less… Jaime is dangerous tonight!
That’s why Tyler is a PCL All Star!
Although the homer wasn’t Colbian, it was nevertheless bashed into Albert Territory!
Greene wants to stay around………….
Tyler ruined Narveson’s bid for a quality start…
Meanwhile, at 70 pitches after 5 innings, Jaime COULD go… all… the… way!
he’s lost his legs……………
Well… he will at least make it through 7
The Brewers are helping…………..how about those Philly’s …………..
While at the same time that the lowly Pirates’ shut-out of the Phillies warms the cockles of my heart, I feel badly for Jamie Moyer…
Jaime is 3-hitting an offensive powerhouse…
Look at the slugging numbers for the Brewers’ 4 big boppers: They’re vastly superior to ours…
That was a magnificent two-handed Gold Glove catch by Albert! Wow!
Assuming that Jaime’s night is finished, that was nothing short of 7 innings of magnificence! Was that bouncing back from the humiliation in Kansas City or what? Our rookie pitched a 3-hit shut-out against a team whose offense is vastly superior to ours!
The walk didn’t raise Yadier’s average, but at least he’s on base!
2 K’s tonight and Brendan is down to .202…
The mediocre Coffey threw NO strikes, yet Randy struck out… damn it!
Put some more mph on ‘em, Jason! Don’ let ‘em make contact!
Trevor Hoffman gave the mantle over to the Axe Man. He’s still good, but his legendary change-up is no longer what it was…
Escobar and Weeks really looked idiotic…
“Oh, for…!” Albert is amazing in he field tonight, but at the plate…
2 for 5 with his 23rd and 24th double and an RBI; Matt Holliday is definitely doing his job tonight!
The Brewer boppers are notorious for crushing weak pitching…
When ya let ‘em fly way out there, there ain’t always a speedy fielder to catch it. Keep that up, mister, and all the chickens will surely come home to roost…
LIke I said, the Brewer boppers are notorious for crushing weak pitching…
Whew! Garcia really, really deserved this one….
…not to mention the fans!
That was a fun. Yes, Garcia knows how to hold a lead.
Nice shot into Big Tyler Land, poor Brendan, his life passes before his eyes as he contemplates a career in the fast food industry.
57, it would be nice if you’d send Yadi a case of celery and a stairmaster. Help him preserve his self respect.
Believe me, blingboy; I’m rooting for Yadier. I’m hoping that he will be turning it around before the break and go the All Star exhibition, feeling that he has regained his batting stroke.
Me too 57. There is no sign of improvement though.
I’m anxious to see who gets the call up tomorrow. Jay, Mather and Craig are all doing well at AAA.
So far so good with the pitching, Sup and Garcia answered the bell.
Jaime Garcia tonight: 10 Ground Balls and only 3 Fly Balls
- he is an honor student in the Class of Duncan and keeps the ball down (the Cardinal way)
I am really impressed with Jon Jay and was saddened when he was sent down to Memphis. As I recall, it wasn’t because of sub-par performance (like Tyler Greene), but to make room…
I hope that Tyler is now here to stay and I hope that Jon gets called up…
I can’t even begin to imagine the pressure than Albert is under. His .306 is .030 below last year’s average (as well as his career average). The plunge didn’t happen gradually, over a couple of seasons, but suddenly…
We could really use a spark from a middle infielder. Maybe Tyler will provide it.
Bingo! At the plate, our SS and 2B are our biggest weakness. We not only need higher average (which Flip is now beginning to supply), but also slugging clout (which I believe Tyler can certainly bring).
In answer to all the clamor for Matt to be returned to the 2 slot (in one of the newspaper online fan feedback columns), I read the following dissenting voice:
“hollidays hot streak last week was credited to a
switch in his batting stance, NOT moving him up in the lineup. its mere
coincidence… both tony and matt said the lineup order didnt have any
effect whatsoever. you guys are just fishing….”
I couldn’t have agreed more and was subsequently happy to see that he was batting Clean-Up this evening. The resounding affirmation to the reader, to Tony and to Matt himself, was Matt’s 2 for 4 performance tonight (producing an RBI).
There is the enthusiasm factor too, like Brendan supplied last year. Skip and Brendan are a pair of wet blankets this year, quite apart from stats. Albert and Freese can be said to play with intensity, but who do we have that plays with fire in his eyes?
Anything at all can happen in baseball, and does everyday. That’s why I’m so obsessed with Moyer this year. Every time he delivers a pitch without breaking a hip its shocking to me, and his record is same as Halladay. And tonight, basically at the halfway point, Garcia is 8-4, same as current Cy award holder Lincecum. Anybody says they predicted that is a lier.
Halladay centered the ball and crushed it a couple times. He also watched a couple beachballs go by right down broadway. So did Albert. I say this because I was listening to Jason Isringhausen chatting it up with Bernie today, he said when Bonds was pounding it out those couple years, he would get maybe one or two hittable pitches in a whole series and he hit them hard almost every time. He didn’t let them sail on by. I suspect the same was true with Mac. Anybody who watches knows that Albert and Matt both often take the best pitch they see in an at bat.
Holliday centered the ball. . . (oops)
I notice the same thing and brought it up earlier in this thread (July 2nd, 2010 at 7:15 am ). I am mystified by the practices and can only think of something I had heard when I was a young boy; that Ted Williams always let the first ball go by, regardless of how good or enticing it looked. I never fully understood the reason…
“Let’s quit pretending that the issue is pitching. The back end of the rotation, ripped by injuries to Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, has been spliced together in a way that’s given the Cardinals a chance to win.” Bernie M.
The last week or so has seen the mainstream media types finally start to see through the smokescreen. The Cards will get Penny back on the mound now, might as well.
A team that has Albert and bought Matt is not supposed to get to the halfway point and need a bat. If you are Tony how do you go to Mo with that? If you are Mo, how do you go to BDW?
BDW: “You spent $7.5 on the rotation, the guy’s on the DL, and the rotation is fine. You spend $120 on hitting and you need a hitter? How about I carve that 120 outa your ass.”
It will never happen, and we will not go dumpster diving either, a team that has Albert and Matt doesn’t have to go dumpster diving for a hitter.