Both the position players and pitchers were more productive offensively when hitting in their traditional spots in the St. Louis Cardinals batting order.
Oh, to recapture the glory of 2007.
OK, I readily admit that comment is ridiculous in the context of the big picture of the St. Louis Cardinals as the defending World Series champions finished six games below .500 and missed the playoffs that season.
While the 2007 ship was listing, but not yet sunk, manager Tony La Russa trotted out his lineup twist last employed on a regular basis in 1998, Mark McGwire’s glory days – the pitcher hitting eighth.
PHE is the convenient term to characterize the moves, but in reality, the reason for doing it is not for the pitcher’s benefit, but instead to increase the chances of getting another baserunner on prior to the top of the lineup coming around. This would be the desired result from the position player batting ninth.
Despite the fact that in 1998 both the pitcher and the position players hitting eighth/ninth generally performed better in their traditional lineup spots, the move was one of the few things that worked as planned in 2007.
That season, batting ninth, the position pitchers hit better, got on base more often and had higher overall productivity as measured by OPS than when the position players were on the lineup card in the eighth spot. This allowed La Russa to brag about his “second leadoff hitter.”
Though it is more of a side point, the pitchers also performed better when batting eighth in 2007, further supporting the moves.
Unfortunately, that did not continue in 2009 or here in 2010.
Similarly in this season and last, both the position players and pitchers were delivering better results when in their traditional spots in the order. As the table below indicates, it isn’t even close, whether batting average, on base percentage or OPS.
It is true that in the ninth spot, the position players are producing better than did the pitchers when there, at least, but that isn’t the entire story. Let’s look at on base percentage, as that is what is desired from the ninth-place hitter.
In the ninth spot in 2010, the position player’s OBP is 73 points better than the pitcher (.263 vs .190) . Check. The downside is that the pitcher’s OBP is 145 points worse in the eighth spot compared to when the position players hit eighth (.182 vs .327). The same kind of differential existed last year, too.
So, is adding 73 points of OBP in the number nine spot worth losing 145 points at number eight?
(Note: These four seasons were chosen as they are the only ones in which there is a reasonable sample of both approaches in the same year. Bolded data is the higher of the two.)
Thanks to researcher Tom Orf for the raw data which I summarized here.
| PH8 | PH9 | NonPH8 | NonPH9 | PH8 | PH9 | NonPH8 | NonPH9 | PH8 | PH9 | NonPH8 | NonPH9 | ||||||
| BA | BA | BA | BA | OBP | OBP | OBP | OBP | OPS | OPS | OPS | OPS | ||||||
| 2010 | 0.143 | 0.150 | 0.254 | 0.211 | 0.182 | 0.190 | 0.327 | 0.263 | 0.348 | 0.400 | 0.713 | 0.560 | |||||
| 2009 | 0.135 | 0.163 | 0.254 | 0.236 | 0.155 | 0.198 | 0.327 | 0.292 | 0.338 | 0.439 | 0.730 | 0.633 | |||||
| 2007 | 0.216 | 0.185 | 0.275 | 0.279 | 0.248 | 0.212 | 0.329 | 0.335 | 0.495 | 0.449 | 0.686 | 0.730 | |||||
| 1998 | 0.106 | 0.192 | 0.217 | 0.221 | 0.153 | 0.242 | 0.302 | 0.286 | 0.327 | 0.445 | 0.656 | 0.594 |
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Brian: Since I’ve been a big fan of placing the pitcher in the 8 slot (supposing that, over time, it afforded greater RBI opportunity for the number 3 hitter), my immediate reaction to your article was negative. Mindful of the old adage; “You can make statistics say anything”, I want very much to argue against what you’ve presented, but I find myself stymied.
Ah, yes! “If something works, don’t fix it!” Like Tony, sticking with yesterday’s formula, let us hope that the magic will return for an encore…
2b Schumaker
lf Holliday
1b Pujols
rf Ludwick
cf Rasmus
3b Freese
c Molina
p Wainwright
ss Ryan
I don’t think that anyone can manufacture a viable argument against what blingboy said; “Sheets is a guy we can brutalize. He was better last time out, but only a so-so righty these days”. Not only is it true that Sheets (2-6, 4.93) has no business being on the same field as Wainwright (9-4, 2.41), it is also true that the A’s do not feature a Murderer’s Row of our caliber. If we are firing on all cylinders today, Oakland will receive such a drubbing and demoralizing blow-out, that their Cahill (6-2, 3.23) won’t look so menacing tomorrow against our Suppan (0-2, 7.20).
Aye, we are at the point where we can earnestly begin to build our lead to where it was before we went to Philadelphia! Having said that, I now await for someone like CariocaCardinal to give me another sobering slap in the face…
What? ANOTHER error by Molina? How can the resultant run be counted against Adam?
Like the very outset of yesterday’s game, Skip leads-off in style…
UNLIKE the start of yesterday’s game, both Matt and Albert destroy any hope for a rally… against a particularly sorry mediocre!
While the induced double-play was certainly characteristic of Adam, all the fly outs and the two hits deep into the outfield suggest that he is having difficulty with at least one of his pitches…
Yep! “Ol’ Mendoza Molina”, with his weak grounder to the mediocre pitcher, is now down to .248…
It appears that I am the only one here… Although I have evidence that blingboy may appreciate a blow-by-blow description of the game, I will cease – before I begin to supply intelligent answers to my stupid questions…
I’m hoping this at bat goes well for Colby.
It didn’t. They pitched around Luddy to get to Colby………loading the bases in a close game……. what are the A’s thinking? Seeing?
The stance is now “open” ……hips pre-set…..hands in a bad position.
I expect him to feel his way around for a week or so WC. You’ll get a good case or carpal tunnel if you point out all his flaws these next few weeks.
Its all part of the learning process. You have to figure out how to remain hot on your own.
Holliday is heating up on a side note WC. A bomb to left.
‘Twas Westy’s theory (“oil n’ water”), with regard to Matt and Albert, that one would deplete the other…
Nice to see Schu and Matt H carrying the team these last two days.
Good thing no one was on base! Ol’ Mendoza Molina is now down to .245…
Another quality outing for Adam (the half-way point, on his way to 20). Matt’s homer serves as a hedge, in case Franklin should stink it up.
Last night’s outing for Franklin was the exception and not the rule. Generally, he will allow at least one runner on base and there are times in which he will load ‘em up…
Now, before even the first out is made, he’s allowed a run and there are two on base… Damn it!
If Yadier will not make Motte throw a slider, he will stick with the tried n’ true “high n’ hard” and we will have some enterainment!
Your right about Matt RC. He isn’t just lowering the bat head now, he’s bending his knees and going down after it. I’m thinking about Colby. He won’t play tomorrow. I’m going to study his at bats later.
Thank you for the entertainment, Motte (and the save)! Yep, that homer by Matt definitely served as a hedge, because Franklin definitely stunk it up…
…and thank you, Warrior and Westy, for allowing me to witness your discussion. Colby is allowed an occasional “Oh, for…”. No one should know better than you that batting champions are known to sustain a few during any given season…
“So, is adding 73 points of OBP in the number nine spot worth losing 145 points at number eight?”
The object is for those guys getting on base to score. In a traditional lineup, the 8 guy gets on but then is followed by the pitcher so has less chance of being driven in. In the PHE lineup the 9 guy gets on less but is followed by the top of the order so has a better chance of getting driven in. So gaining 73 OBP at the 9 spot might be worth losing 145 at the 8 spot.
RC: “You have to figure out how to remain hot on your own.” So what does Mac get paid to do?
By the way RC, I’ll be passing through your neck of the woods in a few days. I sure hope nothing bad has happened to Big Bob’s BBQ in Decatur. I’m thinkin about that chicken already.
Matt and Skip picked a good time to get hot. Hard to figure we won with Albert, Luddy, Colby and Freese working on their tan out there. The whole meat of the order Ofer. Like yesterday, the PHE strategy worked out well, allowing the 9 guy and the top of the order to rack up some runs.
When the thunderstorms came through it cooled off nice. Very fine evening at the ballpark.
The mighty Reds lost to the lowly Mariners for the second night in a row! Now that they’re coughing in our exhaust (to the tune of a game-and-a-half back), our big boppers really need to assist Suppan in getting past Cahill…
Tough game tomorrow. Yadi will sit and most likely a couple other starters. May be tough to pull it out. Holliday, Albert, and Luddy need to pick it up and carry the cards for a sunday win.
The Pitcher hitting 8th has worked well for them the last 2 games.
Yesterday:
B Ryan leads off 7th with a double and Cards score 2 to win 6-4.
Tonight:
B Ryan leads off 7th with a double and Cards score 2 to win 4-3.
9-1-2 totals
Yesterday:
7-for-11
All 6 Runs Scored
4 of 6 RBI
Today:
5-for-10
All 4 RBI
3 of 4 Runs Scored
Agree, Memphis25. However, several on The Cardinal Nation board wrote off this analysis because a season and a half isn’t a large enough sample size for them. Of course, no answer yet as to what is large enough. Always easier to take shots than score.
Skip and Matt getting hot was the key, but Ryan getting on base was big factor.
JASON MOTTE (“When he throws ‘em high n’ hard, the ball lands in Yadier’s mitt at the very instance that it leaves his hand”)
It is sheer comical entertainment, when big league sluggers are made to look foolish; helplessly flailing away and swatting at one chest-high blurr after another! Last year, when Jason had neither control nor consistency-of-velocity, I placed him in the same loser category as Wellemeyer and declared that he was not worthy of wearing the Cardinal uniform. At the outset of this season, when he helped to lose a couple of games, I clamored for the management to send him down to Memphis until he could learn another pitch, besides the fast ball. Now that he has more control-of-direction and consistency-of-velocity, he is walking them less and striking them out more and I find myself thoroughly enjoying his single-dimensional contribution! Nay, now that he is finally learning to throw another pitch (the slider), I find myself wanting him to throw only his 97-100 mph blurrs high over the plate! I do believe that Jason Motte has become a particularly colorful Cardinal!
Motte coming on to relieve Franky in a save situation was a first I think. A big development IMO. We’ll see what happens going forward. Franky has been left to his own devices when he’s put guys on before. Hopefully lights-out won’t get lit up again any time soon.
Happy fathers day to all fathers out there.
RC, as we both know, there are a number of ways to skin a cat. That being said, the curious issue here is how you figure you have a week and a half to “clear” a step in move? You are a fine coach, and when all is said and done, I’m sure that you could resolve these problems…………. so lets step back a little and look at the bigger picture.
1) Geren is trying to hold on to a job in Oakland……….Holiday doubles with 2 outs. He puts up 4 for Pujols……..or lose his job……….. he pitches around Ludwick with 4 pitches nowhere near the strike zone……….to get to a left handed hitter with power……….. he is putting his ass on the line because he sees something that in a highly speculative environment seems like a “good gamble”. That’s where your at………………… as a coach, what do you think that was?
2) The field of play that you find yourself on is fraught with dangerous “tensions” The Albert/Tony coalition on one side, BD/Mo on the other………. a DMZ in between, that decided by the boundaries,(well defended) of organizational interests on one side ….on field prerogatives on the other……………. The organization has thrown up a rather formidable gauntlet against your participation pre-season… probably in agreement with Tony…….. but due to Colby’s difficulties, and your obvious success in dealing with them……….when you walk out into the DMZ, all eyes are on you…………. Tony walks out into the battle zone to check you out with his “heart to heart” talk……….. He is checking to cover his ass because when you’re in that zone, you are a combatant……….no matter what color uniform you are wearing. He wants to know who’s side you’re on……………… I can think of a number of scenarios that would concern him. His future is tied to AP and vice versa…………………. You have free passage at this point, but if Colby starts grinding when your fully involved…………….. both sides are going to be eyeballing that
barbecue pit…scapegoat a spinning…………. I hoping very much that you see how serious that might be………….
3) Back to the cat………….. After digesting and analyzing your swing goals, they might take hold……………….. the cat looks a little like a 400lb Bengal from here. I am not at a loss to recognize your “influence” concerning his placement of his hands. It isn’t about “right or wrong”……….its about you wrestling with a Bengal Tiger in a Demilitarized Zone with “heavily” armed combatants sharpening there steely knives………… My suggestion remains, go back one week, leave his hand back even before he loads…….wait till the AS break and solidify something. If Holiday starts moving and AP starts lagging…………..you don’t want to be where your at.
I like the part about Cincy coughing in our exhaust, and agree Motte could be a colorful character on the mound for the Cards for years to come. Kind of the way Hrabosky and his mad hungarian routine behind the mound used to get the crowd riled up.
Westy, when you’ve got a kid that don’t want to learn to swim you have to just toss him out of the boat. Stay close enough to reach out with an oar if need be, but not close enough to let him just hang on to the side.
bingboy: Before Tony trotted-out our Big Cannon last night, I was thinking that Mitchell Boggs ought to be developed into our closer. As you are aware, I am never comfortable when “Franky” takes the mound: He never gives me the reassuring feeling of “lights out”. My idea of a closer is someone who not only has an arsenal of pitches, but who also has velocity (something that Franklin does NOT have). Last night, Tony got away with murder. We could never use Jason Motte in a closer situation on a regular basis, simply because he does not have that all-important “arsenal of pitches”. Motte certainly is, however, a very entertaining seventh and/or eighth inning man.
I am enthralled with Westy’s fantastic scenario of espionage and intrigue! I can actually visualize the necessity of gingerly pick one’s way through a virtual DMZ, loaded with minefields, betwixt the “Albert/Tony coalition” and the BD/Mo tensions! Damn! I know that there are days when all of us come to this page, just see another beauty at the hands of our beloved Visionary/Psychiatrist!
With Suppan and our erratic boppers up against Cahill, today’s line-up is an expression of the oft repeated; “Hope springs eternal”:
2b Schumaker
lf Holliday
1b Pujols
rf Ludwick
cf Rasmus
3b Lopez
c LaRue
p Suppan
ss Ryan
LaRue is certainly helping Suppan to look good (nice pick-off)!
To begin the game by striking-out the side, Cahill is a lot more menacing than I had anticipated…
He virtually man-handled both Matt and Albert!
Since I am “watching” this game blind on ESPN’s Gamecast, can one of you guys tell me if Suppan just threw a bunch of down-in-the-dirt curveballs at that catcher, Powell? After all the fly balls during the past couple of innings, I am relieved to see that he grounded out.
Apparently, I am the only one in the room again… It sure is lonely around here during a weekend game…
Despite the fact that the majority of the outs and hits have been in the outfield, Suppan has remarkably gotten us through four innings, having only given up a single run!
Matt refused to be manhandled a second time!
…but not Albert.
Can it be, that Westy’s dire prophecy is coming to pass? Can it be, that Matt Holliday taking-over as the Alpha Stud?
TLR has to consider it positive when Suppan can go 4 and 2/3rds and only surrender 2 runs. Given Suppan is a reject from the Brewers pen, today counts as a good outing for him. Unlike Ottavino and Walters, Suppan has kept it close.
While Suppan exceeded expectations, to be sure, TLR wisely allowed Salas to bale him out just as he was beginning to fall apart (after putting two men on base).
With his 10th home run of the season, “Matt the Stud” is now hitting .299!
Albert got tired of being manhandled…
Luddy needs to work on his baserunner blunder stare-down.
Maybe all Matt needed was to get bood by the homies the other day.
Whatever the “tonic” was, he is certainly behaving like an Alpha Stud now!
When comes to mad-doggin’, it seems like it’s either Ludwick or Albert… A little less, glarin’ stares and little more productivity, guys!
That darn super star……..
YOU are the super star, Westy!
Whew! Did you get a load of that 10-pitch walk?
The problem is, it wasn’t a real steal……….he wasn’t working………. he was gambling. He held his head down all the way to the dugout exit. You can see the under current when he is exposed…..its always there, usually water falling on MH’s head. He can do better than that………..but he doesn’t.
My initial reaction to your observations, Westy, is, “How in hell can he possibly know that?” But, I’m learning to recognize the weight of your insight (wherever it comes from)…
Thanks goodness Albert did that. Anyone else would be crucified.
WC, you find it eerily sad that Colby hasn’t gotten a hit since I left? Do you see my dilemma? If I choose to not enter the DMZ what you will see is what you saw last year. Bling would go postal on us if that happened.
And I ain’t going back to St. Louis anytime soon so Colby will have to have Big Mac hold his hand for a while. I make most of my money giving hitting lessons during this time of the year so I may pop up here and there but nothing more than that. So TLR should relax and enjoy the show cause ol RC won’t be in the middle of it for at least a month.
When Colby hits ‘em, he hits ‘em HARD! He just needs to hit ‘em where they ain’t!
Lopez and LaRue got themselves a good manhandlin’ this inning!
One of my sons reads Brian’s columns and sometimes scrolls down to see what we’re blabbing about. He got talking about the Colby/RC discussion and so my dad gave me a talking to. Basically, anybody lucky enough to get an offer of help from his dad when he could use it should take it and be grateful. Anybody don’t like it can lump it. Well, ok then.
Colby and Cory are just lucky that way, same as me.
There is wisdom in a low profile right now RC. I’m surprised he is in the lineup frankly. That in itself has my attention.
Here again, we have a case of TLR wisely pulling a pitcher just as he is falling apart (“like a cheap suit”, as blingboy would say)…
A lot of lefty’s coming up in toronto WC, that should provide an off day or two.
Like I said WC, the constant story after story and comment after comment about me helping Colby is a might bit ridiculous IMO. Only in St. Louis would people hunt you down to find out what you are doing
Yea, you’re right I’m sad to say. I will hate to watch Colby struggle but it is what it is I guess. Low profile it is. 
Off to Greenville in a minute or two to the Sally League All star festivities. Cory has invited me on a date at the BMW driving experience. I’m jacked up about it. Just wish Colby still had his M5 or Cory’s M3. You can drive them if you bring them. I don’t think they will have any M’s available for driving but we will get to drive what they got
WC, you hold them down here as the comic relief (me) will be out for a while.
Have fun…………be careful. He don’t want to know either sides recipe for goat.
Speaking of goat, the table was set for Albert (but he excused himself)…
Albert’s reaction to the questionable strike didn’t help………we needed a single, not a big mac attack. You had to take the cutter away.
Sometimes you have to learn to eat the goat and make everyone think you like it
If McClellan can avoid getting himself manhandled, we’ll have a snow ball’s chance in hell in the bottom of this final inning…
This moment’s dream: Ludwick gets on base and Colby golfs one into the rightfield bleachers!
Ludwick would rather get manhandled…
Colby would rather not…
Well, we DID have a snow ball’s chance, didn’t we? Actually, the game wasn’t anywhere near the bloodbath I had dreaded… Now, if only the Mariners can sweep the Reds…
Well. There’s always the World Cup. Uraguay and Paraguay lead their groups. That has to be a rivalry I’d think. CC would probably know.
Albert doesn’t seem to like shovel duty.
I hope Colby plays against the lefties to see how he does. He tore them up before.
Not only did Matt the Stud prevent the team from looking pitiful today (blasting four jacks against his former club in three day), but he also went above .300!
Some positives to build upon recently: Holliday rediscovers his ability to hit. Suppan is improving and may grow into the 5th starter role. Motte has been effective out of the pen.
Hey! A wonderful GIFT from Seattle: Winning their rubber match with a 1 to 0 shut-out, the Mariners swept the humiliated Reds! We’re going to Toronto, yet solidly in first place and with Cincinnati continuing to cough in our exhaust!
Jumbeau – Matt Holliday never lost his ability to hit: He merely regained the ability to hit the long-ball and to knock-in runs. In case you haven’t noticed, Suppan IS our 5th Starter, but he is definitely NOT improving:
Jun 15 Sea IP 4.0 H-4 ER-1 HR-1 BB-2 SO-4 GB-7 FB-5 Pitches-73
Jun 20 Oak IP 4.2 H-7 ER-2 HR-1 BB-1 SO-2 GB-6 FB-4 Pitches-78
By improved control-of-direction and consistency-of-velocity, Jason Motte has not only increased his strikeouts and reduced walks allowed, but has become colorful entertainment!
57: Right now, Suppan IS our 4th starter. He is improved from the guy you saw pitching for the Brewers (and were unhappy the Cards re-signed).
Has he indeed grown into our 4th Starter, Jumbeau? Well then, you ought not say such inaccurate things as “he may grow into the 5th starter role”. We all know that, when Penny returns, he will not “grow” to the 5th Starter, but be demoted to the 5th Starter (assuming that he lasts that long). It is owing to the wisdom of Tony, by pulling him at very strategic points, that his performance appears as it is, to be an improvement over his performance with Milwaukee. It was the wisdom of David Duncan, that he was brought back onboard to begin with and the stop-gap temporary solution that he and Tony envisioned to get us through a minor crisis is being fully (and carefully) realized.
Indeed, for the time being, Jeff Suppan is our 4th Starter by default, but is in fact our 5th Starter (assuming that he lasts for as long as it takes for Penny to return).
Maybe we will get one of those charts from Ian along with some observations comparing his performance this time to last. He seemed down in the zone more, but I forgot to see if his curveball was used to better effect. Last time I believe they were so low nobody swung. Right now, any start he doesn’t get wailed on is a positive.
Thought I’d just mention an article on STLToday if anyone missed it talking about how Oakland has wheeled and dealed with guys involved in the Mulder trade up thru Holliday.
http://interact.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2010/06/dgs-1010-the-mark-mulder-ripple-effect/
Yeah, I devoured “The Mark Mulder Ripple Effect” when I first saw it a couple of days ago. The chain of events is nothing short of amazing!
Dealing with Beane is kinda like dealing with Boras in a way. There is just this uneasy feeling, even though nobody thinks he’s a genius anymore. He runs a lot of players thru that team. A lot of people thought he’d finally screwed himself with Sheets, but maybe not. It will be interesting to see what he gets for him.
Hawk’s ERA is getting kind of ugly. Not to mention his 1-4 record.
Next Saturday in K.C. is when we are going to need another starter.
For anyone following the “Hitters Parade”………………. Holiday’s very small yet significant change is one the was recommended here in recent weeks. His stance is about an inch weaker but he is presetting his hips to open. When he lifts his front leg for the kick, he is rotating on his back foot, not swinging across his hips locked closed………….like a spring, when he kicks he is rotating. It works for the present. The A’s were kind enough to try to exploit his vulnerable hands. It is a solid tactic. Now he just has to guess when to do it, when to stay closed a deal with the outside 1/3.
The advantage of this new shell game is that he will be dictating……not the pitcher moving him back and forth.
Albert’s pitch selection is already deteriorating as Ludwick caves. A piece of bad luck for our new number 4.
I can’t really quite grasp the detail Westy, but enjoy trying. I had noticed Matt’s leg kick the other day on the homer looked different that his other at bats when he plunked out singles. At the time I mentioned it looked like last year when he was hot.
As I understand what you are saying, that leg kick and the mechanics that go with it, is great only for certain pitch locations??, or if he guesses right on what is coming?? I’m not sure I follow. That homer to center the other day was away. Although it could have been the blind squirrel thing like CC said at the time. What is it you think has to happen for him to stay hot?
He found a way to open up to cover the inside 1/3……. he had been jammed over and over. Its hard to believe it took this long for him to try it. It will change the pitching tactics but that’s the game. If you can’t make adjustments your no good.
I read something somewhere that Lohse isn’t going to throw now for another 2 weeks. Sounds like they’re being cautious. Makes sense I guess. The rehab was going well I understood. Must be a mystery variable.
On Wednesday, Lohse told me (and others) that he would start playing light catch tomorrow (Monday). If that has been delayed, it would seem to have to be called a setback. I understand the surgery and recovery is uncharted waters, but the bottom line was that he was going to be ready and apparently now will not be.
Then I would expect Tony to move him back to cleanup.
Hopefully, his confidence will be improved, so that if he goes back to 4th he won’t go back to siezing up with RISP. I don’t think that is explained by him having been jammed. But return of power, yes, I can see it.
. Doctors……… La? St Louis? have changed the schedule is how I understood it. Set back…….. or hold back?
There’s a massive selection bias for the numbers you’re presenting. The question isn’t whether the PH8 or the nonPH8 has a higher OPS relative to their 9th hitting counterpart. The question is whether the PH8 or nonPH8 performs better/worse compared to projections for them at that spot. The selection bias occurs because you aren’t controlling for the expected level of performance. If you don’t show that we should what the spots are doing relative to the expectations (rather than relative to other spots) you haven’t proven anything.
To be clear, I’m not saying that the conclusion is wrong. I am saying that the evidence supplied does not substantively validate that conclusion.
If I understand your contention, az, you believe we should compare actual results against a set of projections instead of against actual results against actual results at the same positions in the order. Whose projections would be less disputable than a season and a half of real at-bats (2009 and 2010 to date)?
Here is the net-net summary. These are actuals from all of 2009 plus 2010 to date. 700 plate appearances of one approach and over 1,000 of the other.
Number of runs scored by PH8 + PPH9 vs.
Number of runs scored by PPH8 + PH9
This would be the best test because , while getting on base is important, so is getting on base ahead of someone who is more likely to drive you in.
BB, I’m still not thrilled with Suppan’s curve. Only three of ten were thrown for strikes, but at least two of those were swinging strikes. Likewise, only three of his nine changeups were thrown for strikes (none swinging). He gave up 11 fly balls and five line drives compared to only six ground balls. I liked his pitch locations against LHB better than RHB this time around:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=122987&game=gid_2010_06_20_oakmlb_slnmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=2&s_type=2.gif
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=122987&game=gid_2010_06_20_oakmlb_slnmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=3&s_type=2.gif
I don’t think I agree with you, bb. I can see baserunners, which is what OBP represents. However, their scoring depends on the other players, the first, second, third, etc. place hitters, too.
Others have suggested including a look at the seventh place hitters. There are many possible variables, but I purposely chose to restrict it to just the 8th and 9th place hitters themselves and what they theoretically can control.
Yes, it occured to me that my theory is flawed in that the PPH7 getting on base would score less when followed by PH8. Maybe I’ll agree that Brian’s method is better overall. (Better than mine. I don’t follow Az’s well enough to make a comparison there).
I should know better than to argue numbers with a math major.
Thanks Nut. The more I ponder Suppan’s performances, the less thrilled I am in general. I’m just not seeing him survive the better lineups nor continuing to get bailed out by spectacular defense.
I haven’t seen anything yet as to who might be the starter Saturday.
Speculation is Hawksworth, but they don’t generally make the formal announcements until closer in.
The highest ERA in the pen. Why didn’t I think of that.
http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100620&content_id=11390074¬ebook_id=11400514&vkey=notebook_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
This must of been what I read……….. accurate in its reporting I think.
“So they just want to make sure, because [the surgery] was a bit more intrusive. ”
I don’t get it. So they didn’t know about that until now?
Westy, while the link you supplied (“Lohse will take extra time before throwing”) pretty well underscored what Brian had indicated (#86), it also carried a very interesting article about how the utilization of the DH in Toronto will translate into a virtual days-off for guys like Ludwick (“Cards will use DH role to spell regulars”).
There is a pretty good chance that all three games in Toronto could have rain delays and there is a distinct possibility that either the Tuesday game or the Thursday game could be rained-out entirely. While Jaime will go against a damned fine lefty tomorrow; Cecil Romero (7-3, 3.18), Chris will go against their best on Wednesday; righty Rick Romero (6-3, 3.08 2 CG & 1 ShO). Adam should have a comparatively easy time of it against the least threatening of their starters on Thursday; righty Brandon Morrow (4-3, 4.97).
May it be that what happened with Matt Holliday at mid-season last year is now beginning to happen with him again, because I have the distinct feeling that we will require far more fire power than what we exhibited against Seattle and Oakland. I can’t help, but feel that the DH (“Day Off”) will work significantly in our favor…
Begging your pardon… For tomorrow, I meant Brett Cecil (7-3, 3.18), rather than Cecil Romero.
I’m thinking we are going to have our work cut out for us in Toronto. The Jays have the same record as the Cards and play in a tougher division. They are at home and they are used to the DH and have the personel to take advantage of it, while all we can do is stick a bench guy in the lineup. Toronto also has what I think is a far more efficient offense. Their avg is lower but they score more runs on more homers, higher slug pct and more total bases.
If all we get is one or two guys doing all the offense again, we could get creamed.
That’s precisely what worries me, blingboy! A fired-up Holliday (and even Pujols) won’t be enough. We will need consistent production from both Ludwick and Rasmus. An occasional contribution from Freese and Molina will certainly help…
I’m thinking we are going to slap around the Blue Jays. Jaime Garcia gives up few HRs. He will befuddle the blue birds. Meanwhile the Cards can trot out 9 right swingers against Cecil. Gotta like our chances.
Against Cecil, Rasmus should take a break. We can put Winn in CF and Stavi in right, give Luddy a chance to kick back and DH. Felipe can play 2B. Lets rock.
Games are indoors aren’t they 57? Toronto is tough……..are we? Pujols/Ludwick are buried. Holiday won’t be pitched inside………..Rasmus and Freese are grinding……….we could easily get swept here unless a new coalition starts to meld around Holiday…….1 in 3 chance.
I’m pulling for Jumbo to be proved right. Colby has done OK against lefties this year and he’s been great on the road. I couldn’t find the split for foreign country.
Tony was quite miffed about losing Sunday. He may change it up. Put Matt at 4 or put the pitcher back to 9.
As evidence of how much I pay attention to the American League, Westy, it did not occur to me that the Blue Jays played indoors! At last check, blingboy and Jumbeau, Tony LaRussa was quite positive and confident about Colby’s evidently successful adjustment to southpaws. While it wouldn’t surprise me that Matt would be returned to Clean-Up, trusting that his annual mid-season surge is starting, I am hoping for Westy’s “1 in 3 chance” that Albert will get on base ahead of him and that Ludwick will be effective behind him. The more that I think about it (and look with dread upon Toronto’s offensive capability), the more convinced I am of blingboy’s caveat concerning the necessity for our Murders’ Row to start firing-up…
They pay Holiday 17…….Luddy 5………. Me thinks Luddy is going to be cleaning up for awhile. Tony won’t do it, but AP has to bat 4th……..he is the one that’s pressing and not producing. They are worried that he is going to come up behind the doubles and just be walked………that’s his complaint. Everyone is going to walk AP when they can because of the pressure it puts on the other players. We don’t have anyone that can deal with that tactic it seems………..the only solution is to hit Albert 4th.
No argument from me, Westy… Since you called my attention to the fact that I pay so little attention to the American League (correcting me about the Blue Jays’ playing field), I did a little earnest research…
FACTS ABOUT THE BLUE JAYS,
KNOWN AND UNKNOWN
Once upon a time, long ago, a 21 year old youngster by the name of Chris Carpenter was taken by the Toronto Blue Jays from the first round of the Amateur Draft (15th pick) and began a six year stint of mediocrity for that club, compiling a less than distinguished 49-50, 4.83 record. In ’97, his first year, he was practically unseen under the shadow of Roger Clemens (21-7, 2.05) and Pat Hentgen (15-10, 3.68). In his final year with Toronto (2002), his woefully meager 4-5, 5.28 couldn’t compare with the likes of the Blue Jays’ Ace, Roy Halladay (19-7, 2.93) and Pete Walker (10-5, 4.33).
‘Twas within a couple of months after the Blue Jays released the injury-plagued righty in early October of 2002, that he signed as a “minimum wage” Free Agent for the Cardinals. However, an agonizingly slow healing process from shoulder surgery prevented Chris from pitching in 2003 and the Cardinals granted him Free Agency on November 3rd of that year. Almost precisely one month thereafter, with Walt Jocketty impervious to his record at Toronto and seeing only golden talent in him, he signed-on with the Cardinals once again as a minimum wage Free Agent! Thenceforth, in vindication of Jocketty’s wisdom and faith in him, Chris was anything but a mediocre; compiling a remarkable 76-25, 2.90 record over seven years!
The Blue Jays team that he faces this year is quite different from the Blue Jays team of which he was a part, lo, 7 years ago. The only remaining member is Vernon Wells, their Centerfielder. Both Roy Halladay and Jason Werth are now with the Phillies and Felipe Lopez is now his Cardinal teammate. Jose Molina, their backup Catcher, as everyone knows, is Yadier’s “middle” brother.
Unlike us, the Blue Jays have no .300 hitters (only 4 are hitting above .270), but they’ve been far more effective with RISP. While we have 4 big boppers (Pujols 15, Rasmus 13, Ludwick 11 and Holliday 10), they have 5 (Bautista 18 HR, Wells 16 HR, Gonzalez 13 HR, Buck 12 HR and Hill 10 HR). Indeed, while we’ve hit 67 home runs, they are first in the American League in that department (106)! Although we have twice as many who are hitting above .270 (5 of them are hitting .300 or above!), we can boast comparatively little in the way of batting teamwork (RISP & RBI). Since our pitching is substantially superior to theirs (3.19 ERA versus 4.22 ERA), they outperform us ONLY with respect to RISP and Total Bases.
If our offense can perform with a modicum of consistency, regardless of who we have at Clean-up, we can beat the Blue Jays!
Nice work 57. The Jays, like Oakland, have churned a lot of guys thru there trying to keep the roster fresh and competitive while making a profit in a mid market. I think a Beane disciple is, or was, in charge there.
I wouldn’t have thought about the roof either, but it could be a factor. Their guys will be used to tracking fly balls against the roof and ours won’t.