By Ian Walton
An over reliance on a fastball declining in velocity, no viable off-speed pitch and minimal pitching inside add up to a shaky debut for St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Ottavino.
Although allowing four earned runs in five and two-thirds innings wasn’t unreasonable for a pitcher’s first major league start, St. Louis Cardinals fans have plenty to worry about, at least those who are hoping that their team can find an effective number five starter behind P.J. Walters while Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny are on the disabled list.
Ottavino started off strong on Saturday at Wrigley Field, scattering two walks and a triple over his first three innings, relying primarily upon his fastball, which was consistently in the 94-96 MPH range. In fact, 20 of his first 21 pitches were fastballs. Things began to unravel during his second time through the order as he was forced to mix in his secondary pitches and his fastball velocity dropped to 92-94 MPH. A walk, two singles, and a triple combined for three runs scored in the fourth inning. A single, an intentional walk, then an unintentional walk to opposing pitcher Carlos Silva saw Ottavino pulled from the game in the sixth and charged with a fourth earned run as Mitchell Boggs promptly walked Kosuke Fukudome with the bases loaded.
The first plot shows each of Ottavino’s pitches thrown against right-handed batters, presented from the view of the catcher. Other than one stray changeup, he offered them fastballs or sliders, frequently missing high and inside or low and away. Control issues aside, his sliders didn’t seem to fool the opposing Cubs batters, as of his 15 sliders thrown, only two went for called strikes and two were swung upon and missed. Eight went for balls.
When facing left-handers, Ottavino rarely crossed the inside half of the plate and typically missed high and away, as can be seen by the next plot. Other than one slider, he showed only fastballs and changeups. Again, his off-speed pitch was less than stellar, as five of his eight changeups were thrown for balls and only one for a called strike.
While this was only his debut outing and while Adam Ottavino is a fine pitcher, I have concerns over his ability to remain in a major league starting rotation based upon this outing.
Aside from his control issues, I see at least three warning signs.
- Over reliance upon a fastball (76 of 99 pitches thrown) that lost velocity early on.
- Presence of only one questionable off-speed offering to batters from each side of the plate.
- An apparent reluctance to pitch inside, particularly to left-handed batters.
The above might seem to project him as being better suited to the bullpen at this stage of his career. However, at twenty-four years of age and currently working as the Cardinals’ seventh starter, he has a strong fastball and plenty of room to grow.
Brooks Baseball generated the graphs used in this article.
Follow The Cardinal Nation Blog on Facebook.
The article is as definitive as it is astute. However, according to my comparatively unrefined view, the most glaring deficiency was Adam’s failure to “keep it down”: More than half of his pitches were up and away.
Yeah, particularly against left handers, he didn’t throw low very often. Many of the pitches up and away rather wildly missed the plate. Presumably, he was releasing the ball too early?
[...] starting in place of one of the injured Kyle Lohse/Brad Penny duo. In my mind, it didn't go well: Breaking Down Ottavino?s Debut | The Cardinal Nation blog __________________ BJHL: GM of the Manhattan Crime Occasional Contributor to The Cardinal [...]
Nice post and analysis Ian. I was only able to get the Cubs feed on Gameday , Santo was impressed by Ottavinos fastball but remarked often that it was all he was throwing and it would just be the Cubbies batsmen timing it the second and third times thru the order.
Seems like the walks really made problems .
Jon Jay! What a CANNON! Yadier Molina! Had the presence of mind, while the throw was on it’s way, to edge-over and block the plate! The rookie-and-veteran play was nothing short of classic Cardinal baseball! ! One cannot fail, either, to admire Albert’s bash… Damn! I’m really excited
Nice pitch around by Waino/Yadi to set up DP. Perfect pitch to create it. I hope we can score to lessen the pressure on Adam. It will shorten his appearance if we don’t allow him to be more aggressive.
Thank you Lord. That Demster has thrown a couple of creme puffs in there today.
Ah, yes! We certainly DID score, WCBW! Enos Slaughter’s RBI count was surpassed by our man’s second homer! What with Adam’s dominance and Albert’s magnificence, thus far, this is a thoroughly enjoyable game!
“Demster has thrown a couple of creme puffs ”
I only saw the second Albert bomb, but in that at bat he did a magnificent job of working the count, taking and then fowling off all the non-cream-puffs, hanging in there until finally the inevitable cream -puff came along. When you take an at bat like that you don’t have to pray for a fat one.
I understand that the Cards have more than one guy in the org that can play CF at the ML level. I think that I am not the only person who might be astonished to find that out. The back up can always get in some reps at Memphis.
Your right about that BB…………Albert kept the oven hot.
It is a nice afternoon for baseball 57, I agree whole wholeheartedly.
When you let Wainwright feed……… he dominates. 3/2 change-up?….no problem…… Cubs don’t even want to go to the plate at this point.
93 pitches……common sense says that he has one more…………who does Tony use today in the 8th and 9th?
The solo shot notwithstanding, ’twas another quality outing for our ace (and a much-deserved win)!
Motte was dominate. Tony will go to someone else in the 9th. Does he risk K-mac?
Motte is all power and no finesse, but he’s quite effective when facing a demoralized team. You’re certainly right also about McClellan (he’s definitely a “risk”)!
He can use any now…………….BB, that home run was the best. On the black, outside. He had to take it deeper……….stayed on it to center…….good pitch……good solution. Lets hope he sees the wisdom in not guessing. He jumped on two tee balls and reacted on balance to center.
And all is well around him……….. Freese takes a big mouthful. Plenty of kill for everyone.
And thanks to Jumbo for letting us attend his Sunday afternoon service.
Who were those guys?? In the Cardinals suits. And what did they do with those other bums??
Post game, on the radio, Albert shared out the glory, Matt, Luddy, Freese, Wainy. Said they would have a good game plan for facing Aroyo.
Phillies shut out in 5 of their last 8 games. Scored a total of 7 in the other 3.
Shouldn’t we be hearing about a roster move?
Very nice article Nut. Enjoyed the plot diagram and explaination/commentary. I’m not used to looking at these things, but it seems like an awfull lot of the strikes are pretty much down the middle. The effort might be prohibitive but would love to see the plots on Walters start for comparison.
Thanks, chief and BB. BB, PJ’s graphs don’t look as clean because his fastball is slow enough that PitchFX mistakes some of them for changeups. However, PJ used the entire strike zone, typically missing outside to both LHB and RHB. He only had five swings for misses, but all of his pitches looked pretty good except for his curveball, where nine of fourteen went for balls. Curveballs thrown to RHB seemed to all miss low and away.
Let’s try this:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=502208&game=gid_2010_05_27_slnmlb_sdnmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=3&s_type=2.gif
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=502208&game=gid_2010_05_27_slnmlb_sdnmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=2&s_type=2.gif
Thanks. Looks like PJ tended to hang curveballs to lefties. Other than that, I guess it takes experience to get a lot out of the graphics. I looked at Wainy today, and even Halladay’s perfecto and can’t really tell much. I’m happy enough relying on your analysis.
All of AP’s dingers came with two strike…1/2 3/2 1/2……….. first two center cut or better, number 3 a couple of inches off center……a slider breaking 8 inches.
Lesson……….. Albert was defending, trying to stay back and wait. The middle single was his target. First two stayed in the kill zone so long that he just turned on them…….. The slider just got better by the inch……………He fouled off allot of good pitches in the usual fashion because he was way out front. Absolutely no way this is overlooked…………. as a thinking hitter he is in trouble……..as an instinctive hitter he is AP legend.
The thinking hitter arrived with the Matt Holiday challenge. He is the one playing contract games with BD. The elemental athlete with his beautiful naivety showed today…… and the worldly seeking his recognition in gold with all its symbolism was obscured by fate for a few moments. Obviously the two are at odds. Fate has taught a lesson………. will he see it.?
The rookies were throwing prayers Nut. Fighting cotton mouth and trying not to pass out.
Both have good stuff. Both are meaningful properties. If they are standing in front of a good defense and treated to early runs, they will do fine. Like any rookie. The Phillies had a lot of those with that offense behind them.
Tomorrow we face a good pitcher who has been hot, and a pretty good team that has been hot. That will make a difference. Lets see if Albert and Matt can feast on Arroyo or were they just beating up a weakling today. Playing at home should help.
When Jay gunned the guy out it did as much as an Albert dinger to take the wind out of the enemy’s sails. We know all about how that works unfortunatly. He will be rewarded with bench duty I’m sure, but hoping for an out of character moment from TLR.
Brendan reminds us of how he can be an offensive spark plug, disrupting the defense and distracting the pitcher. He has to get on of course. Not much in the pinch running department.
Garcia will meet his Little Big Horn sooner or later. They all do. Lets hope its later. Hope we get to see MacLane before the next roster move. I’m dying to see a lefty come out of the pen other than our specialists.
It’s so funny that as soon as the beat guys start talking about Albert hitting mechanics and health issues he puts up a Ruthian line. That should shut them up until after the break. We’ll have to find out from Westy what they’ll be talking about then.
I hope so, WC. Ottavino looked a lot like a stretched out Jason Motte in his opener.
I wrote this elsewhere, but I’ll copy it here:
All of his pitches land on a diagonal between the catcher’s upper left and his lower right – tracking directly with the pitcher’s natural arm motion. Even his sliders are landing in pretty much the same places. His pitches thrown against lefties look just like his pitches thrown against righties, but he cut the lower right half of his range off.
Not a single strike was thrown in the upper right or lower left portions of the strike zone to RHB or LHB! I don’t think that he can reach them. That’s a big problem.
Catcher’s upper left and lower right seems fine for pitching to right hitters.
He will need to get lower on the outside against left swingers.
I take Nut’s point to be that it appears from the plot Otto lacks the command necessary to use the whole zone. All his pitches go where they would naturally go given his arm motion. It seems it took all of 3 innings in the bigs for opponents to catch on.