In his “Young Talent Inventory”, now in its third year, famed sabermetric analyst Bill James compiles a list of the top 20 young players across Major League Baseball. Not surprisingly, the inventory, published in “The Bill James Gold Mine 2010”, does not include any St. Louis Cardinals prospects. 23-year-old hurler Felix Hernandez of Seattle is the “most valuable property” at number 1.
James goes further to rank all young MLB talent by organization. In this measurement, the St. Louis Cardinals dropped from number 14 last year to 24 in 2010.
| 2010 | 2009 | |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 |
| 2 | Colorado Rockies | 8 |
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | 1 |
| 4 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 |
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | 10 |
| 6 | San Francisco Giants | 22 |
| 7 | New York Yankees | 29 |
| 8 | Texas Rangers | 19 |
| 9 | Chicago White Sox | 25 |
| 10 | Florida Marlins | 4 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Phillies | 20 |
| 13 | Atlanta Braves | 9 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 11 |
| 15 | Kansas City Royals | 5 |
| 16 | New York Mets | 16 |
| 17 | Chicago Cubs | 26 |
| 18 | Seattle Mariners | 18 |
| 19 | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | 24 |
| 21 | Oakland A’s | 12 |
| 22 | Toronto Blue Jays | 28 |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | 23 |
| 24 | St. Louis Cardinals | 14 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 |
| 26 | Cleveland Indians | 7 |
| 27 | Cincinnati Reds | 15 |
| 28 | Detroit Tigers | 27 |
| 29 | San Diego Padres | 21 |
| 30 | Houston Astros | 30 |
Last week, Baseball America posted an article reviewing international signings by organization that they view as being top prospects in their annual Prospect Handbook. The focus is not just this year, but cumulative. It is apparently over the last five or six years, but exact timeframe is unclear.
Also, they don’t list all the names, just three from each organization. Still you can get an idea of where BA’s thinking is. The Cardinals are near the bottom with five such prospects, in a four-way tie for 21st. The best is the Yankees with 12 and worst are Marlins and Pirates with two each.
For the Cardinals, the three players listed are all pitchers: Eduardo Sanchez (pictured), Francisco Samuel and Richard Castillo.
A week later, BA came back with a point-in-time comparison to five years ago. In total, there are 21 more international prospects now than five years ago, an increase of 10-12 percent.
Still, the Cardinals improvement is evident by the fact that Juan Lucena was their only player listed in 2005. That one international prospect ranked St. Louis’ system dead last.
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I was a little surprised to get linked to the Acta catalog page where I could buy the book. But I saw several things I’d like to read so I bookmarked it, thanks. You need to bet a book project underway Brian, if you don’t already.
Most surprising to me is how drastically a team’s rank can change in one year. 29th to 7th and 7th to 26th as examples, and quite a few teams with big moves. I’m not sure I can buy that so many systems change that much that fast. In fact, I don’t buy it.
Yeah, sorry about that, but the release wasn’t posted, so I did not have anything to link to.
Remember those are top talent rankings, so don’t necessarily reflect system depth.
OK, I can see it if they mean almost ready for prime time guys.
The Bill James rating is probably reasonable, 14 last year, 24 now Rasmus got promoted, and Wallace, Todd, and Perez traded.
The Baseball America articles may be less useful, given the specific context of the Cards. Since the Latin program got a new commitment in 2005, Sanchez, Samuel, and Castillo (plus Solano) have risen highest, so are mentioned. But the Cards were not recruiting bonus babies back in 2005, so the talent during this time frame is modest. The first priority back in 2005 was setting up infrastructure (scouts and coaches), and wooing buscones.
Lucena was from an even earlier era. The Cards were clearly underachieving in Latin America pre-2005, with Lucena the best of a lame bunch.
What matters now is whether the Cards are recruiting some good bonus babies. And whether some pleasant surprises emerge from the mass of low profile signees. The next couple of years should begin to make this much clearer.
An example of a young guy who could emerge is C Audry Perez. Perez is 5’9″ tall; great catcher Pudge Rodriguez was 5’9″, so its not like Perez is too short. Perez hit well in the DSL in 2008, his first year in pro ball, then hit well in 2009 given an impressive leap up to Johnson City. Its going to take the next couple of years for the Cards to find out what they have in Perez, but he might become good.
Another example of a young Dominican who could emerge as a fine prospect is another catcher, Luis Delacruz. He caught the eye of managers in the Gulf Coast League back during 2007, IIRC. He got some play at Quad Cities and Batavia last summer. He must have fine defensive skills. Delacruz will be behind Stock at QC this year.
A different kind of prospect is SS Donovan Solano. Unspeedy and unpowerful, Solano is easy to overlook. But he fields and has risen to AAA; this spring he has had a few at bats and gotten hits. Solano is at least a useful asset for the system, though not beloved for potential.