St. Louis Cardinals prospects stack up very differently when looking at potential contribution to the major league club this season.
My friend Jason Grey at ESPN posted his top 100 prospects list for their Insider members on Friday. His list distinguishes itself from other well-known rankings in that it is based solely on players expected to make a big league impact this season. In other words, that hot first-round phenom on track to debut in the majors in 2013 is nowhere to be found.
While the orientation is for fantasy use, don’t be confused or concerned about its source. Jason is a pro – a real, trained scout who sees literally hundreds of games each year and is well-ingrained in that community. For example, within an hour of Lance Lynn having completed his three-inning outing on Friday, Jason and I compared notes, each of us having received reports from different scouts at Roger Dean Stadium that afternoon.
Four St. Louis Cardinals made Grey’s list. In fact, they are all in the top 50. I thought it especially timely given Lynn’s impressive outing his first time out.
With the permission of Jason and ESPN, his Cardinals capsules follow. Please respect the rights of the owners and do not reproduce the details elsewhere.
24. David Freese
Freese turns 27 in April and was in a similar position last year, with a chance to win the third base job, but ankle problems stemming from a January car accident were more serious than he let on, and he eventually underwent surgery. He’s a career .308 hitter in the minors, with a .384 on-base percentage and .484 slugging percentage in almost 1,500 at-bats, and his short stroke, bat speed and ability to go the other way with power should allow those numbers to translate well to the major league level. He does tend to get streaky and is prone to going through stretches in which he chases too many pitches, and the signing of Felipe Lopez definitely has the potential to cut into Freese’s playing time, but he’ll be given a chance to take a starting job and run with it.
32. Lance Lynn
The fifth spot in the Cardinals’ rotation is up for grabs, and even if Lynn doesn’t win it during spring training, he might get it at some point this season. A supplemental first-rounder in the 2008 draft, Lynn has cruised through the minors thanks to his good sinker and command of his secondary stuff, finishing with a 2.92 ERA in 22 Double-A starts last year. He doesn’t really have an “out pitch,” but can hit his spots and keep his mistakes in the ballpark, giving him a chance to have some sneaky value if he gets an opportunity.
43. Allen Craig
Craig has a good shot at winning a backup spot in the Cardinals’ outfield, and in the past three seasons, he has played everywhere but catcher and center field in the minors (though he’s not really too good at any of them). His best position is first base, but that’s, um, filled in St. Louis. However, that versatility might allow him to stick with the big club, and the bat can do the rest. The 25-year-old hit .322 with 26 homers at Triple-A last season, which followed a .304, 22-homer campaign at Double-A in 2008, and a .311, 24-homer campaign in Class A ball in 2007. Sensing a bit of a pattern emerging here? He squares up the ball consistently with good hip rotation and loft, and he’s willing to work the count. Playing time could lead to surprising numbers.
47. Jaime Garcia
Garcia is likely to start the year in the minors as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2008. He still needs to build up some innings after throwing just 263 of them combined over the past three seasons. He was good enough in the Triple-A playoffs in his late-season return last year to be optimistic about him contributing at some point for the Cardinals with his good curve, solid low-90s sinker and new cutter. The elbow problems have limited his development, but he’s still just 23 and projects as a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Again, to see the full list, read all of Jason’s in-depth reports, and much more, become an ESPN Insider today. I subscribe and recommend it highly. You can get an even better deal if you first subscribe to ESPN The Magazine (which, by the way, has a great cover story on Albert Pujols this week.)
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Lynn over Garcia, huh?
Time (ETA) is a meaningful way to look at minor leaguers. These four are certainly near-time candidates. Tyler Greene did not make the Top 100 of Mr. Gray, but is another. The Cards seem pretty well stocked at AA/AAA and thats a good thing.
There seem common systemic ways that some players at AAA are under-appreciated. They may have played too long in the minors to be seen as exciting or too old to make a ML debut or have gotten low signing bonuses. Jamie Garcia has been low profile because of a TJ operation, but seems restored.
Looking at Brian’s pre-camp system matrix, at Memphis there are Garcia, Walters, Ottavino, Parise, Salas, Anderson, Hamilton, Jay, Craig, Stavinoha, and Robinson, plus up from AAA Freese and Greene. I like these guys to various degrees. The Memphis squad was relatively young among AAA teams last year. Some of these guys could get hot in 2010 and contribute in the majors. Its nice to have them within the system.
Likewise at AA there are Additon, Dickson, Mulligan, Samuel, Sanchez, Hill and Cruz the converted catchers, Luna, Kozma, Jones, Henley. Hard to say any are surefire future major leaguers, but also hard to say none can ever contribute in the majors in due course. If one does not have monster prospects, its still useful to have a group of possibilities.
If those four guys end up on the team at the end of the season, hopefully postseason roster, that would be an impressive haul. Following on Ryan and Rasmus and the young pitchers that came up. And at the WWU Mo said to look at AA, so maybe the pipeline will not dry up.
What if Mo and Luhnow actually know what they are doing, and the ‘tradeing away the farm’ last year was really just getting return for guys that were assessed as mostly just AAAA, marginal MLB players clogging up the pipeline.
The deals last summer were a bit different. We had to overpay to get DeRosa, after injuries to Glaus and Freese. We needed DeRosa and had to give up a lot to the Indians in Perez and Todd, who should succeed in the majors.
The Holliday deal was different in terms of being part of a long term financial overture, followed by the 7 year deal. Mortensen and Peterson seem decent prospects, but non-essential; you can only make use of so many prospects at a time. Wallace seems like a better Daric Barton, a lefty hitter best at 1B. He too was inessential. So we gave up about 18 years of control over plausible prospects, but sometimes you have to shell out money and future players to get star hitter, needed now, as the Cards view Holliday.
Since a ML team only has so much adsorption capacity for young players, it makes some sense to package quantity for quality. Peterson, Morty, and Wallace were ok prospects, but if we had enough where we could give some up. Whereas Freese can play a premium defensive position, Wallace was not promising there. While Perez and Todd are very nice, they are relievers, and as such a bit less valuable than if starting pitchers. Mortenesen has some potential, but so do Ottavino, Walters, Lynn, and Garcia, so Morty was dispensable.
I like Jumbo better than Beau. Jumbo actually contributes thought out posts. Beau simply repeats the obvious. Today Beau is posting.
Carioca, there is an accessible essay on the catstrophic collapse of the Global Warmists in the March 15th edition of the American Spectator, the edition featuring an artistic drawing of Al Gore in his birthday suit. You should be able to see it on-line. The abrupt collapse of this long-running farce is heartening in many ways.
It seems ok to state the obvious, provided defensible.
Stuff that was obvous, and at the forefront of memory, last summer, seems to fade in and out a little bit now. Or gets mixed in with other stuff. My memory isn’t what it once was, nor my attention span. But even years ago I wasn’t one to commit to permanent memory all the details surrounding trades. It can be useful to have a capsule presented to bring it back into focus. I can appreciate that some would find it tedious though.
I wonder if Al ever got rid of the energy sucking, carbon spewing family estate with sprawling mansion, fleet of SUV’s, heated pool, etc. That was so funny, while he was lecturing us.
Jumbo…………….. there is no such thing as a conservative intellectual. There are some very bright people who prey on weak minds for profit and influence in a free and “democratic” society. That’s simply the process of natural selection at work……………………………….. I am convince that you are not one of those people.
There are a number of aristocratic folks about these days Jumbo that are convinced that this country was always intend to be a republic, not a democracy. BD is one of them. They are aware of the limitations related to religious beliefs and democratic institutions when it comes to regulating population and reproductive privilege. In their own sordid way, they are prepared to join forces with the natural planetary regulations on species selectivity and all the variables surrounding living in a balanced ecosystem……………….. So confident are they in their roll in this realization to our future society, that they have endeavored to create superstition and a false sense of security amongst the weak and vulnerable so that the cull might be more graceful than past attempts. in this great tradition of mind manipulations first pioneered by the Romans some days past, they will xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx the American Spectator right to your door.
Westie, I have been following the demise of the Warming myth. I understand how little it was premised upon. The American Spectator published a nice article. The mainstream media in the US has not reported the story, much like the National Inquirer landed the story about presidential aspirant John Edwards and Rielle Hunter. Should you believe everything reported in the Inquirer? No. But the squalid Edwards affair turned out to be true. The truth sometimes has a way of coming out.
I’ve now triangulated you to one of three locations Jumbo. Wyoming, Eastern Montana, or possible northern Idaho where there is also an enclave. It will help my work if you would give a signal on one those possibilities
Jumbo and Westy, this is one of my favorite Al Gore related articles. I don’t take much interest in global warming, but politician windbaggery is something else. It’s a very short read.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/bush/house.asp
Here is the article to which I referred, about the collapse of the Global Warming myth. It will take a while to collapse politically, since it had many adherents. But once Obama tried to advance the cause, this provided incentive for critical examination of the underlying science. This is what has utterly collapsed for many people since November. Even conservatives had thought there had to be something to it; now they do not.
http://weeklystandard.com/articles/denial
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Steven_F._Hayward
Jumbo, the people that are good at measuring things are also critically aware of the limitation and scope of what they do and can measure. And they are very concerned.
People are talking about the salmon crisis out on the coast Jumbo. Ask Weyerhauser where the salmon went. After 30 years of clear cutting they say, eat trout. Stick to baseball Jumbo.
Westie, I am lucky to be able to crtically interpret on my own behalf. I do not need to be advised whether an author is right wing or left wing or no wing. It does not matter. Science is not owned by any political affiliation. Global Warming is caputski and will eventually disappear from the popular lexicon.
Another prediction: Mark Twain was a great guy and will be remembered, as long as there are folks who read the English language. Its great to be able to pinch-hit a Mark like McGwire with a greater Mark like Twain.
Eastern Montana.
Westy, my guess is you’re off by 1000 miles. You could probably hit Jumbos house with a rock from your back porch.
My God. A California Chapter of the John Birch Society member? My data doesn’t suggest that BB. He could be a Twins fan but they’re just a bunch of hippies up there. KC just doesn’t feel right. They eat Jumbalaya there. He is reaching out to ST Lou from a ways but not this far. He must be Northern because he has no accent.
Gore’s Global Warming narrative is in keeping with a religion. Such a story would appeal to the resident shaman. Catastrophes will be wreaked upon the Earth, unless the faithful change their evil ways and invent clean energies and jobs that are green, sayeth the preacher.
There are resemblences to the PED narrative. Newfangled molecules are aruining the national pastime, faux heroes must repent their evil ways, lest innocent youths be led to addiction and ruin, while the purity of the Hall of Fame itself is threatened. Fortunately our culture is saved by turning back to the good books of Mark Twain, and all ends happily.
Jumbo………………This is awesome stuff you’re writing. It actually causes me to laugh out loud. Good stuff, keep it up.
I don’t know about that John Birch Society tag Westy, just as likely Ethical Society IMO. Could as easily be Nature Church of Enlightenment or Rogue River Fellowship (or one of your brethren in the Mainland Church of the Perfect Wave), no matter, Californians stand out in a crowd.
You guys should get together. Maybe a weekend camping up along the Shasta River. Look for Bigfoots or something. Bring a web-cam. It would go viral.
No BB. As RC pointed out, Jumbo has never been so beautiful, well mannered and such. He is speaking the truth as best he can understand and explore his own nature. As Depak would point out, its almost inevitable that Jumbo contains some of the very atoms that constituted the physical body of Samuel Longhorn Clemens.
RC, I like what Colby is up to.
Hadn’t thought of that….should have been obvious.
I like the L-R-L-R at the top of the order today. R-L-R-L would be better. Tony will get around to that.
Well WC,
this is the first year in the last 3 where someone hasn’t tried to recreate the wheel in regards to Colby. I believe Colby to be as determined as ever to use the entire field. He continues to speak highly of Mark and how much Mark’s approach to hitting differs from Hal’s. They are trying to keep the bat in the zone longer. Its early but he has shown improvement to this point. We’ll see how the spring unfolds and see if he continues to develop his approach.
Bling wrote, “I like the L-R-L-R at the top of the order today. R-L-R-L would be better. Tony will get around to that.”
I’d like to personally see Albert hitting in the 4 spot myself Bling but I don’t figure to see it happen anytime in the near future.
That’s the common wisdom, RC, but I’m not so sure. Schu, Brendan and Lopez could, should, all be .300 hitters this year. It would be tempting to pile em up ahead of AP, MH, CR, RL. At least now and then.
It seems to be working RC. He is removing so many pitch options by threatening to resolve their vulnerabilities with a shorter stroke, that he is seeing some opportunities to turn and crank. That’s how it works. Before long he is going to be taking some tremendous cuts at 3/1 and 2/0 pitches with no fear. He will hit more HR’s on those counts.
I’ve only seen him one game, but I chuckled when he snuck his hands back to their old position during the wind up. That’s how you do it. If he is moving in the box, they will plunk him but having multiple hand position to solve different counts and expected locations is completely acceptable. To me it shows your thinking, not guessing.
To me a great hitter isn’t afraid to start a swing in a certain location on a hitter advantage count. The rule is, win time for yourself to adjust, but don’t distort your swing too much in search of just any contact. So many guys are afraid to just swing and miss. That isn’t nearly as bad as the weak ground balls and foul pops that haunt the chasers. You have to believe you can beat that pitchers strikeout pitch. Knowing and trusting in that, you can take some titanic stokes that make baseball tonight highlights. Enough of those and he will be asking you to move your car out of the garage so he can park his Lamborghini out of the weather when he comes home.