St. Louis Cardinals prospect Mark Hamilton may be just as blocked in the outfield as he is at his natural position, first base.
With no actual games yet to report, this is the time of year the early media arrivals at spring training all over Florida and Arizona wear out the already-tired phrase, “Shlabotnik arrived in camp in the best shape of his career.”
So it was on Friday, albeit pre-Felipe Lopez by several hours, when generally-pessimistic Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch tweeted this:
“Cards impressed that 1B prospect Mark Hamilton has shed 20 lbs. Projects at AAA Memphis but he does hit LH. Never know…”
The 25-year-old is attending his first big-league camp after having been added to the 40-man roster in November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. As Strauss notes, the Cards’ supplemental second round pick in 2006 is likely slated to return to Triple-A Memphis. I am not going to spend any time analyzing Hamilton’s chances to come north with the Cardinals as I just don’t see it happening.
My concern is more basic – whether or not there will be room for Hamilton to work more on his outfield play, even in Triple-A. After all, a reserve first baseman in St. Louis is baseball’s version of the Maytag repairman. As a professional, the big man, 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, has a grand total of one game of regular season outfield experience to date.
Though the left-handed hitter played some outfield in college at Tulane, Hamilton will find a very crowded competition in Memphis. Depending on who makes the major league club, the Redbirds may have as many as seven other outfielders on their 2010 roster, all with previous Triple-A experience: Nick Stavinoha, Mark Shorey, Shane Robinson, Jon Jay, Amaury Cazana, Allen Craig and Joe Mather. Add to that top prospects Daryl Jones and Tyler Henley in Springfield who should be ready for Triple-A before very long and something major has to give.
The Cardinals have been trumpeting Hamilton’s winter ball stint in the Dominican Republic as having been valuable for him to become familiar with playing left field. Though he made only one error for the Gigantes del Cibao, he lasted barely two weeks with the club before being released.
Hamilton didn’t get much time to work on his glove as he must have left his bat behind in the States. He played in 15 games going 9-for-47 with one double, two home runs, nine RBIs and 15 strikeouts. His slash line was .191/.298/.340.
Strauss’ kind remark regarding Hamilton’s ability to hit lefties stuck in my head as I recalled this stat from Mark’s aborted winter assignment. Against left-handed pitching, he went 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts. Granted, it was a small number of at-bats, but hardly a momentum-builder.
Looking at Hamilton’s career splits, his OPS as a professional versus left-handers is just .699. It might be tempting to stop right there. In all fairness, let’s look at his yearly numbers for signs of progress.
| Hamilton | |||||
| vs LHP | Level | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | SS-A, A | 0.154 | 0.214 | 0.250 | 0.464 |
| 2007 | A+, AA | 0.241 | 0.306 | 0.406 | 0.712 |
| 2008 | AA | 0.304 | 0.391 | 0.339 | 0.730 |
| 2009 | AA, AAA | 0.289 | 0.386 | 0.421 | 0.807 |
| Career | 0.249 | 0.327 | 0.372 | 0.699 | |
| vs RHP | Level | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | SS-A, A | 0.289 | 0.356 | 0.500 | 0.856 |
| 2007 | A+, AA | 0.279 | 0.341 | 0.485 | 0.826 |
| 2008 | AA | 0.222 | 0.323 | 0.397 | 0.720 |
| 2009 | AA, AAA | 0.322 | 0.417 | 0.571 | 0.988 |
| Career | 0.280 | 0.359 | 0.491 | 0.850 |
Coming off a string 2007 in which his 90 RBI led the system and he secured a berth in the Arizona Fall League, Hamilton’s career momentum stalled. His 2008 was injury-shortened and rough. From the left side, he did get on base, but showed no power. It was followed by his best season with the bat in 2009.
Any optimism or pessimism over Hamilton’s chances to hit in the majors would have to be predicated on his most recent season, only part of which was against Triple-A competition. In his third partial season in Double-A in 2009, Hamilton began on fire. He didn’t do poorly in Memphis, either, though his Triple-A at-bats versus lefties were limited, just 34.
How Hamilton will get the chance to demonstrate any ability in the outfield in the near term remains an even bigger question.
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IIRC, Hamilton may be the son of a dentist (like McGwire) or another kind of doctor. Grew up near Houston, played at Tulane U.
The scouting book on Hamilton coming out of Tulane was he could only be a first baseman, not having athleticism to play LF or RF. If so, Hamilton is not another budding Chris Duncan, who could run pretty well for a 6’5″ first baseman and play LF (even if Chris misread some flyballs).
Hamilton has lost time to injuries in 2008 and 2009. The Cards will hope he can stay healthy and rack up more than 400 at bats at Memphis in 2010.
Hamilton can have economic value staying at his best position, 1B. If Hamilton hits well at AAA, he can become a trading asset.
Dont think Struass was touting Ham’s ability to hit lefthanders but his ability to hit LH!
LH = lefthanded
Nice article. I basically agree with its premise but think Andrew Brown and Steven Hill also affect Hamilton’s status. Brown showed improved skills in between time on the DL last year. If he starts off hot the way he finished the year he has to go to Memphis. Brown is also a 1B with some OF skills. He hit RH though. Some think Hill has a major league bat. He is also most likely a long term 1B with limited OF skills. He may be a little more versatile with some catching skills. How the Cards see Hamilton relative to those two may determine his future as much as anything. If they like Hamilton better as potential insurance to Pujols he may be kept around. If not, he may be moved sooner rather than later.
I see your point on LH and good reminder about Brown and Hill, too CC. More and more bats with no place to play them. They also have Tyler Greene, who I would think they would also want to see get some OF time in Memphis to be ready as a utility player when needed again in St. Louis.
Springfield may be competitive offensively this year only due to the guys that can’t make Memphis because there is no room. There really aren’t a lot of players from PB and QC last year pushing up hard behind them.
One guy we can all agree was not a good fit was 1B Mike Ferris, 2nd rounder in 2004 from Miami of Ohio. Ferris was dismal in the NYPa league, mediocre in the Midwest League, and a part-timer until released. Happily, Hamilton may have higher ceiling. If Hamilton can stay healthy and play well at AAA over the next year or two, the Boras client might get a shot at the majors, via trade.
They can’t keep Cazana in Memphis over the horde of younger guys, can they?
Barring a multitude of injuries, I suspect several of these guys are going to have to play somewhere else. Cazana has to be up near the top of candidates.
Hamilton needs one or two full seasons at AAA, to develop and to establish his readiness for the majors. If he is now 25, having been slowed the past two seasons with injuries, he may become most ready for the majors in 2012, then age 27. A lot of people would then consider him suspect, because they think anybody good has to be established in the majors by age 25.
Hamilton signed in 2006, the same draft as Allen Craig, who was chosen 6 rounds lower. If Hamilton had not been slowed by injuries during parts of the past two seasons, he might be a good candidate for the majors already, like Craig. Instead, Hamilton needs more training in the minors.
With the injuries, Hamilton is not a hot prospect, touted by prognositicators. Most of his value is in his bat; he does not cover off an elite defensive position. However, for the Cards, Hamilton is a welcome asset. If he stays fit and has a strong season, Hamilton could become a trade chip or provide depth in the unwelcome event of an injury to Pujols.
A lot of left swingers do not fare well against southpaw pitchers. If he is another, Hamilton would not be unusual. Hamilton’s big challenges for 2009 are staying healthy and AAA pitchers. If he meets these challenges, he helps his chances of reaching the majors.
If Hamilton is not in the majors by 2011 he probably won’t be ever (if he stays healthy). No reason he needs 2 more full seasons at AAA after OPSing over .930 between AA and AAA last year.
Springfield may be competitive offensively this year only due to the guys that can’t make Memphis because there is no room. There really aren’t a lot of players from PB and QC last year pushing up hard behind them.
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Unfortunately, the guys who’ve earned a promotion from PB are outfielders. I’m thinking specifically of Adron Chambers (.770 OPS in a tough hitting environment) and Curt Smith (.742 OPS at PB, .819 OPS at SPR). Both guys are 23 with nothing left to prove in A ball.
I know Smith can also play 1B, but that doesn’t really help with Brown and Hill there as well, at least to start the season.
There’s also Charlie Cutler, another 23-year-old coming off a .796 OPS at PB and .865 at QC. He’s mostly a catcher, but he played a few games in the OF and 1B.
Finally, Tommy Pham played a full season at PB. With his .691 OPS (and .232 BA), he looks like he could use more time there. But if he gets off to a fast start and looks like he’s ready for the next level, how many of these guys will be allowed to block his progress? With his power and speed, he seems like the kind of guy you don’t hold back.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: if Pujols’ arm is really healthy, tying him to first base is both a waste of his ability and an unnecessary handicap upon the team’s roster.
While not a stellar third baseman, his fielding there compared favorably to the likes of Joe Thurston and Brian Barden. Furthermore, he was better than average at left field, and had better numbers than Matt Holliday at the position.
I’d rather see a replacement level first baseman in the lineup than a replacement level third baseman.
Re 10, CC, age discrimination is silly, as illustrated by Ryan Franklin, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jim Bibby, Dick Hughes, among many others. Guys are not washed up by 27. If they were, we would be in trouble, just dishing out so much moola for the next 7 years to 29 year old Matt Holliday.
Hamilton needs AAA reps. I could care less if Hamilton spends two more years training at Memphis. Mo and Jeff may not either. Its just business.
Lou, you are correct the Cards have good depth and competition for the AAA and AA squads. Glad to find us on the same wavelength about this.
It seems reasonable to think there could be a prime job in right field next year, depending. Whether the Cards can and will keep paying Luddy may depend an what some of these guys show starting now.
“The Cardinals have been trumpeting Hamilton’s winter ball stint in the Dominican Republic as having been valuable for him to be learning to play LF.”
Some folks on the development side are good at communicating positives. This is not necessarily a bad trait. Its good to face life positively. Also, its not a bad idea for any minor leaguer to gain experience at more than one position. For many firstbasemen, the next position to try is LF. Winter-ball seems a good low key place to experiment.
Sometimes, its possible to take what the Cards say too seriously. Luhnow predicted Kozma would hit .340 at Johnson City and Robert Delacruz would begin pro ball, age 17, at Johnson City. These were over-enthusiastic predictions. With Hamilton, its good if he shags some flies in left, but his ceiling will probably depend on health, luck, and first base.
I can understand Brian thinking happy talk about Hamilton in LF is not persuasive. This would be because its not.
I would give the Cards credit for persuading guys to try new positions. This is people positive and provides more opportunity. Mulligan, Motte, Dave Carpenter were strong armed catchers not good at hitting. Conversely 3B Tony Cruz and C Steve Hill were tried at catcher. Allen Craig tried 3B for a couple of years before falling back to LF.
Theo Epstien may or may not be any good at evaluating players. I dove into this article, knowing it was mostly over my head, in an effort to get a better grip on why certain things happen that seem to not make sence. Like Lopez going to the Cards for $1M. Like our prized prospect 3rd baseman Wallace being maybe a 1st base/DH for a low budget also-ran. Like Bay walking and MH getting a shrug from the money teams. What might Wallace mean for all these guys jamming up in Memphis and Springfield. How can Luhnow, and presumably the Cards rate their prospect pool so radically different then does everybody else?
It’s a great article on the Red Sox player evaluation strategy. And sheds some light on the things mentioned in the previous paragraph. Here are a few quotes:
“. . . the most simple measure is taking balls that are in play and turning them into outs. . . we were the third-worst team in baseball in doing that.”
“we have one of the best farm systems in baseball. I’ll be honest with you, because of the switch we made from college to high school kids in the draft”
” If we just let things happen and inertia took over and we just brought back the same team or took a really convenient path or went out and signed the highest-paid position player on the market, I don’t think it was going to solve the problems we had. The players available did fit because they addressed our run prevention, and they were available on shorter contracts, so when the prospects are ready they won’t be blocked.”
“. . . you are probably reading from the Bill James Handbook, which he doesn’t have anything to do with. They just slap his name on it.
Really?
Those projections are not his actual projections. . . ”
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/02/25/theo-epstein-on-dc-sox-need-balance/
Interesting report from Jupiter today
Here are the groups for defensive prectice today:
Quote:
Field No. 1
* Anderson
* Pagnozzi
* Molina
* LaRue
* Pujols
* Schumaker
* Lopez
* Lugo
* Greene
* Freese
* Craig
* Holliday
* Rasmus
* Ludwick
* Mather
* Stavinoha
Field No. 6
* Cruz
* Cutler
* Hill
* Stock
* Hamilton
* Descalso
* Kozma
* Solano
* Gotay
* Jay
* Robinson
* Henley
* Jones
It is interesting the way they are divided up, looks like the team that is most likely headed to St. Louis is on field 1 and those headed to various minor league stadiums are on field 6.
from cardsclubhouse blog
bb, I want you to know I did not ignore your post #19 about the Theo interview. I appreciate you sharing the link as I found the details most interesting. I may plan to use it in the future.
It took me a day to get an answer about the Bill James Handbook, which by the way began long before James’ employment with Boston. Its publisher is a friend of mine. The net of the deal is that it could be a ticklish situation if a prominent member of an organization is making projections on his own team’s players that are not appropriately optimistic. Yet one needs to maintain objectivity to maintain credibility. Public comments are made to keep a wide gulf between the endeavors, but rest assured Epstein’s remark is far more self-serving than accurate.
Glad it was interesting. I know I tend to get excited about stuff that is kindergarten level to guys who know a lot about baseball. I would venture to ask whether whoever convinced you that “Epstein’s remark is far more self-serving than accurate” might have been self-serving as well.
Today, there is an AP story in the Globe about some maple bats being banned in the minors this year for players not on 40-man rosters. Also, changes to make maple bats safer.
There are also changes in the dimensions for all bats for the first time in 100 years it says. The max barrell diameter is reduced and minimum handle diameter increased. This latter applies to MLB it seems from the story. Also, if a big leaguer breaks his bat 10 times, he’ll get a talking to by MLB and union ‘bat experts’.
The Edmonds story in the Post prompted me to see how Glaus is doing with the Braves. He’s not injured yet. Heyward blasted one into the parking lot and did $3400 damage to his Asst. GM’s car (now that’s a real baseball story).
bb, you can decide whether or not to trust my assessment of that particular aspect of the Theo piece. I chose to summarize a number of detailed offline comments into a more generic answer because this isn’t my issue to debate. If you are truly interested, watch for upcoming public remarks that may offer a different spin than the one originally presented.
It was just a question that occurred to me rather than doubting your judgement. Not phrased well. I had mentioned the James statement thinking it might be of interest to others more so than me, like maybe the beginnings of a flap or something.
If a baseball can do $3400 dollars damage to a car, the owner of the car is making too much
I don’t sense it is a flap – just public positioning.
I hear you CC, if my car burned up with $2000 in the trunk I still wouldn’t be out $3400.
Nice work in the Globe today Brian. It goes without saying, it could have been even better if the Globe would send you to Jupiter, all expenses paid, so you could see those minor leaguers up close.
Thanks, bb. For others perhaps mildly curious, here is the link to my weekly “Minor League Notebook” column in the St. Louis Globe-Democrat.
Most of the minor leaguers haven’t arrived in camp yet. Though it is on my own nickel, I will accomplish the desired end result as my plans will put me in Jupiter starting on Tuesday. I haven’t missed spring training in about 20 years, long before the move from St. Pete.